c hapter 7

CHAPTER 7

Political Parties and the VotersPolitical Parties and the Voters

Once the party nominating processes have Once the party nominating processes have narrowed the list of candidates, it is the voter narrowed the list of candidates, it is the voter who who decides the fate of the parties and decides the fate of the parties and their candidatestheir candidates

Because modern democratic governments Because modern democratic governments derive derive their legitimacy through free their legitimacy through free elections, parties elections, parties cannot survive without cannot survive without substantial voter supportsubstantial voter support

The electoral fate of the parties depends on The electoral fate of the parties depends on which which voters will actually vote on election voters will actually vote on election day, how day, how strongly partisanship determines strongly partisanship determines voter choices, and voter choices, and which party will benefit which party will benefit from the influences of from the influences of current issues and current issues and candidates’ imagescandidates’ images

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

Although free elections are critical to the functioning Although free elections are critical to the functioning of the republic, only 56.2 percent of the voting-age of the republic, only 56.2 percent of the voting-age population voted in the 2004 presidential electionpopulation voted in the 2004 presidential election

Although turnout has increased in the last two Although turnout has increased in the last two elections, it is still lower than it was in the 1960selections, it is still lower than it was in the 1960s

Voter turnout often depends on whether a person Voter turnout often depends on whether a person thinks the benefits of voting outweighs the coststhinks the benefits of voting outweighs the costs

Voter turnout also often depends upon the timing of Voter turnout also often depends upon the timing of the election and the offices being contested – voter the election and the offices being contested – voter turnout is substantially higher in presidential turnout is substantially higher in presidential

election election years than it is in midterm elections for years than it is in midterm elections for the House of the House of Representatives (Figure 7.1.)Representatives (Figure 7.1.)

Figure 7.1. Voter Turnout in Presidential Figure 7.1. Voter Turnout in Presidential and House Elections, 1960-2004and House Elections, 1960-2004

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There are major differences in turnout rates There are major differences in turnout rates among among the states, with southern and the states, with southern and southwestern states southwestern states having the lowest having the lowest levels of participation (Figure 7.2.)levels of participation (Figure 7.2.)

Figure 7.2. Turnout in the American States, Figure 7.2. Turnout in the American States, 20042004

Turnout as Percent of VAP

More than 68% (4) 63% to 68% (12)

57% to 62% (14) 51% to 56% (14)

Less than 51% (7)


There are major differences in turnout rates There are major differences in turnout rates among among the states, with southern and the states, with southern and southwestern states southwestern states having the lowest levels having the lowest levels of participation (Figure 7.2.)of participation (Figure 7.2.)

Political scientists have found that these varied Political scientists have found that these varied turnout rates are related to both the political and turnout rates are related to both the political and the demographic characteristics of the statesthe demographic characteristics of the states

Interparty competition is highly correlated with Interparty competition is highly correlated with turnout – when the chances that either party may turnout – when the chances that either party may win go up, people are more likely to votewin go up, people are more likely to vote

Campaign spending can also increase turnout Campaign spending can also increase turnout because as money is spent, voters are provided because as money is spent, voters are provided with with more information about the candidatesmore information about the candidates


The demographic characteristics most The demographic characteristics most associated associated with higher levels of turnout are with higher levels of turnout are high incomes, high-high incomes, high- status occupations, high status occupations, high levels of education, middle levels of education, middle age, Jewish age, Jewish heritage, Catholicism, and being whiteheritage, Catholicism, and being white

Differences in state registration requirements Differences in state registration requirements can can also cause differential turnout rates, and also cause differential turnout rates, and since more since more permissive rules lower the cost of permissive rules lower the cost of voting, turnout is voting, turnout is likely to be higherlikely to be higher

With passage of the so-called Motor Voter law With passage of the so-called Motor Voter law in in 1993, states are now required to make 1993, states are now required to make registration registration easier, and in states covered by easier, and in states covered by the law, voter the law, voter registration has indeed increasedregistration has indeed increased

Who Votes?Who Votes?

As age increases, so does turnout, reflecting the As age increases, so does turnout, reflecting the unsettled character and mobility of young peopleunsettled character and mobility of young people

The higher the level of educational attainment, The higher the level of educational attainment, the the greater the likelihood of voting, as better-greater the likelihood of voting, as better-educated educated people tend to be better at seeing the people tend to be better at seeing the relevance of relevance of politics in their livespolitics in their lives

A higher proportion of whites than blacks vote, A higher proportion of whites than blacks vote, and and blacks vote more frequently than Hispanics, blacks vote more frequently than Hispanics, and this and this pattern reflects that blacks and Hispanics pattern reflects that blacks and Hispanics tend to be tend to be younger and have lower educational younger and have lower educational levels levels

Non-voting is also influenced by personal Non-voting is also influenced by personal attitudes, attitudes, such as a lack of interest, a low sense of such as a lack of interest, a low sense of civic civic obligation, and weak feelings of partisan obligation, and weak feelings of partisan affiliationaffiliation

Table 7.1. Participation in National Elections, Table 7.1. Participation in National Elections, 20042004

CharacteristicPercent of Persons Reporting

That They Voted in 2004Male 56.3Female 60.1White 60.3Black 56.3Hispanic 28Age

18–20 4121–24 42.525–34 46.935–44 56.945–64 66.665 and over 68.9

School years completed

8 years or less 23.6High school

1–3 years 34.64 years 52.4

College

1–3 years 66.14 years or more 74.2

Employed 60Unemployed 46.4Not in labor force 56.2Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2005, p. 263

Figure 7.3. Attitudes toward Voting and Figure 7.3. Attitudes toward Voting and Politics, 2004Politics, 2004

Source: National Election Study.

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Political Parties and TurnoutPolitical Parties and Turnout

Since voters are apt to be of a higher Since voters are apt to be of a higher socioeconomic socioeconomic level than nonvoters, level than nonvoters, Republicans are slightly more Republicans are slightly more likely to turn out and likely to turn out and vote than Democratsvote than Democrats

An important role that parties play in the political An important role that parties play in the political system is to mobilize voters and increase turnout, system is to mobilize voters and increase turnout, which they do in several ways:which they do in several ways:-- Parties provide labels for candidates to run underParties provide labels for candidates to run under-- Parties provide citizens with information about Parties provide citizens with information about

candidatescandidates-- Parties conduct explicit get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effortsParties conduct explicit get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts

An indicator of the intensity of a campaign is the An indicator of the intensity of a campaign is the level of spending in which the parties and level of spending in which the parties and

candidates engage to mobilize voters, and research candidates engage to mobilize voters, and research shows that GOTV efforts indeed increase turnoutshows that GOTV efforts indeed increase turnout

Is Nonvoting a Social Problem?Is Nonvoting a Social Problem?

Unfavorable comparisons between turnout Unfavorable comparisons between turnout rates in rates in the U.S. and other Western the U.S. and other Western democracies are democracies are frequently cited as frequently cited as evidence of decay in the evidence of decay in the American body politic American body politic (Table 7.2.)(Table 7.2.)

Table 7.2. Percentage Turnout of Registered Table 7.2. Percentage Turnout of Registered Voters: Some International ComparisonsVoters: Some International Comparisons

Country Year Type of Election% Turnout

Registered VotersUnited States 2000 Presidential 66.7Austria 1998 Presidential 95.2Belgium 1999 Parliamentary 90.5Canada 1997 General 73Greece 1996 Parliamentary 76.3India 1998 Parliamentary 62Italy 1995 Regional 77.4Ireland 1997 Presidential 47.6Hungary 1998 Legislative 57Israel 1999 Parliamentary 78.7Russia 1996 Presidential 69.6South Africa 1999 National Assembly 89.3Sweden 1994 Parliamentary 87.3Turkey 1999 Parliamentary 87.1

Source: Federal Election Commission.


Unfavorable comparisons between turnout Unfavorable comparisons between turnout rates in rates in the U.S. and other Western the U.S. and other Western democracies are democracies are frequently cited as evidence frequently cited as evidence of decay in the of decay in the American body politic American body politic (Table 7.2.)(Table 7.2.)

American turnout rates is usually calculated as American turnout rates is usually calculated as a a percentage of the voting-age population, but if percentage of the voting-age population, but if it it were calculated as a percentage of registered were calculated as a percentage of registered

voters, like in most other countries, the voters, like in most other countries, the turnout turnout would be higher (72.9% in 2004)would be higher (72.9% in 2004)

Another argument is that Americans actually Another argument is that Americans actually participate more than citizens of other participate more than citizens of other

countries, countries, because of the frequency of because of the frequency of elections to various elections to various officesoffices


A study of voters’ and nonvoters’ candidate A study of voters’ and nonvoters’ candidate preferences and policy views shows that preferences and policy views shows that

nonvoters nonvoters generally appear well generally appear well represented by those who represented by those who votevote

Analyses by sociologist Ruy Texeira reveal Analyses by sociologist Ruy Texeira reveal that if all that if all the eligible citizens had actually the eligible citizens had actually voted in the voted in the presidential elections from 1964 presidential elections from 1964 to 1988, the to 1988, the outcomes would have remained outcomes would have remained the same the same (Table 7.3.)(Table 7.3.)

Nonvoting in America may not be indicative of Nonvoting in America may not be indicative of an an ailing polity, yet reasons for concern still ailing polity, yet reasons for concern still existexist

Table 7.3. What If We Had an Election and Table 7.3. What If We Had an Election and Everybody Came? Self-Reported Voters and Everybody Came? Self-Reported Voters and

Nonvoters by Presidential Vote of Preference, Nonvoters by Presidential Vote of Preference, 1964-19881964-1988

Vote or Preference Nonvoters VotersVoters and Nonvoters

1964 Democratic vote or preference 79.7 67.4 70Republican vote or preference 20.3 32.4 29.9Other vote or preference 0 0.2 0.1

1968

Democratic vote or preference 44.6 40.9 41.7Republican vote or preference 40.4 47.6 46Other vote or preference 15 11.5 12.2

1980

Democratic vote or preference 46.8 39.4 41.1Republican vote or preference 45.1 50.8 49.5Other vote or preference 8.2 9.8 9.4

1984

Democratic vote or preference 38.6 41.4 40.8Republican vote or preference 61.2 57.7 58.4Other vote or preference 0.3 0.9 0.8

1988

Democratic vote or preference 44.4 46.6 46Republican vote or preference 54.3 52.3 52.8Other vote or preference 1.3 1.2 1.2

Source: Ruy A. Teixeira, The Disappearing American Voter (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 1992), p. 96. Reprinted by permission.

Note: The National Election Study did not ascertain the presidential preference of nonvoters in 1972 and 1976.

Party IdentificationParty Identification

Voters’ electoral choices are a product of the Voters’ electoral choices are a product of the interaction between their enduring attitudes and interaction between their enduring attitudes and beliefs and more transitory factors such as beliefs and more transitory factors such as

current current issues and candidate imagesissues and candidate images

The most important long-term influence is The most important long-term influence is partyparty identificationidentification—a feeling of attachment to and —a feeling of attachment to and sympathy for a political partysympathy for a political party

Unlike issues and candidate images, which vary Unlike issues and candidate images, which vary from year to year, a voter’s party identification from year to year, a voter’s party identification

is is quite stablequite stable

Party identification is measured either with a Party identification is measured either with a three-three- point or seven-point scale (Figure 7.4)point or seven-point scale (Figure 7.4)

Figure 7.4. Creation of Seven-Point Party Figure 7.4. Creation of Seven-Point Party Affiliation ScaleAffiliation Scale

Source: Based on National Election Study

“Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat,

an Independent, or what?”

Democrat Independent Republican

“Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a

not very strong Democrat?”

“Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or

Democratic Party?”

“Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a

not very strong Republican ?”

Strong Democrat

Weak Democrat

Independent Democrat Independent

Independent Republican

Weak Republican

Strong Republican


Between 1952 and 2004, approximately Between 1952 and 2004, approximately three-three- fourths to two-thirds of the American fourths to two-thirds of the American electorate held electorate held a partisan identification, a partisan identification, with the Democrats with the Democrats maintaining a consistent maintaining a consistent advantage over the GOP advantage over the GOP (Figure 7.5)(Figure 7.5)

Also, the percentage of citizens identifying as Also, the percentage of citizens identifying as independent-leaners has increased (Figure independent-leaners has increased (Figure

7.5)7.5)

Figure 7.5. Party Identification in the United Figure 7.5. Party Identification in the United States, 1952-2004States, 1952-2004

Source: National Election Study

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Between 1952 and 2004, approximately three-Between 1952 and 2004, approximately three-fourths to two-thirds of the American electorate fourths to two-thirds of the American electorate

held held a partisan identification, with the Democrats a partisan identification, with the Democrats maintaining a consistent advantage over the maintaining a consistent advantage over the

GOP GOP (Figure 7.5)(Figure 7.5)

Also, the percentage of citizens identifying as Also, the percentage of citizens identifying as independent-leaners has increased (Figure 7.5)independent-leaners has increased (Figure 7.5)

Party identification tends to be acquired at an Party identification tends to be acquired at an early early age, and it is an informal, family-age, and it is an informal, family-centered processcentered process

Party identification is, however, often Party identification is, however, often changeable in changeable in early adulthood, as well as through early adulthood, as well as through other changing other changing life circumstances and real-life circumstances and real-world eventsworld events

Characteristics of Party IdentifiersCharacteristics of Party Identifiers

Citizens who affiliate with political parties Citizens who affiliate with political parties tend to be tend to be more interested in and more interested in and knowledgeable about politics knowledgeable about politics and more and more politically active than others (Figure 7.6)politically active than others (Figure 7.6)

Partisans are also more likely to see Partisans are also more likely to see important important differences between the parties differences between the parties and to care more and to care more about electoral outcomesabout electoral outcomes

Strong partisans show the highest levels of Strong partisans show the highest levels of political political knowledge, interest, and activityknowledge, interest, and activity

Independents, on the other hand, are only Independents, on the other hand, are only occasionally interested in politics, and are more occasionally interested in politics, and are more

likely to think that both parties are corrupt or likely to think that both parties are corrupt or out of out of touch with normal citizenstouch with normal citizens

Figure 7.6. Political Characteristics of Figure 7.6. Political Characteristics of Citizens Based on Their Partisanship, 2004Citizens Based on Their Partisanship, 2004

Source: National Election Study

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Partisanship as a Political FilterPartisanship as a Political Filter

Partisans tend to seek political information from Partisans tend to seek political information from sources that share their opinions, and they are sources that share their opinions, and they are

more more likely to believe information from fellow likely to believe information from fellow partisanspartisans

Even when partisans do encounter those with Even when partisans do encounter those with opposing views, they tend to discount them to a opposing views, they tend to discount them to a greater extentgreater extent

Partisan citizens tend to project their own Partisan citizens tend to project their own beliefs to beliefs to politicians they know little about, politicians they know little about, assuming that they assuming that they share their view, or disagrees share their view, or disagrees with them, if they with them, if they belong to the opposite partybelong to the opposite party

This type of selection serves to reinforce This type of selection serves to reinforce partisanshippartisanship

Partisanship and Vote ChoicePartisanship and Vote Choice

Strong partisans have higher rates of turnout Strong partisans have higher rates of turnout than than weak partisans, who in turn are more weak partisans, who in turn are more likely to vote likely to vote than independentsthan independents

In most post-World War II presidential In most post-World War II presidential elections, elections, Republican voters have exhibited a Republican voters have exhibited a higher degree of higher degree of loyalty than Democratsloyalty than Democrats

One of the main explanations for Democratic One of the main explanations for Democratic defections was the existence of conservative defections was the existence of conservative southern Democrats who often abandoned southern Democrats who often abandoned

the party the party in presidential elections to vote for in presidential elections to vote for RepublicansRepublicans

This pattern has become less pronounced in This pattern has become less pronounced in recent recent elections (Table 7.4)elections (Table 7.4)

Table 7.4. Presidential Voting of Party Table 7.4. Presidential Voting of Party Identifiers, 2000 and 2004 (percent)Identifiers, 2000 and 2004 (percent)

2000 2004

Bush Gore Bush Kerry

Strong Democrat 2 97 3 97

Weak Democrat 11 89 17 83

Leaning Democrat 20 72 12 87

Independent 44 44 47 53

Leaning Republican 79 13 89 11

Weak Republican 85 14 89 11

Strong Republican 97 2 98 2

Source: National Election Study, 2000 and 2004

Dealignment or Polarization?Dealignment or Polarization?

Although studies have consistently shown that party Although studies have consistently shown that party identification is the major determinant of how people identification is the major determinant of how people vote, during previous decades its impact appeared vote, during previous decades its impact appeared

less less significantsignificant

One sign of this pattern was the increased frequency One sign of this pattern was the increased frequency of split of split ticket voting, or voting for different parties’ ticket voting, or voting for different parties’ candidates in candidates in elections for different officeselections for different offices

Voters have been found to increasingly change their Voters have been found to increasingly change their partisanship to reflect their vote preferencepartisanship to reflect their vote preference

Morris Fiorina has suggested that because voters’ Morris Fiorina has suggested that because voters’ partisanship responds to political events and conditions, partisanship responds to political events and conditions,

party identification should be considered a sort of party identification should be considered a sort of “running “running tally” of past experiencestally” of past experiences

Figure 7.7. Districts with Split Outcomes (Carried Figure 7.7. Districts with Split Outcomes (Carried by President of One Party and House Member of by President of One Party and House Member of

Another), 1900-2004Another), 1900-2004

Source: Norman J. Ornstein, Thomas E. Mann, and Michael J. Malbin, Vital Statistics on Congress, 1997–1998 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1998), p. 71. Used by permission; 2000 and 2004 data from Congressional Quarterly Voting and Elections Database.

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Dealignment or Polarization?Dealignment or Polarization?

Paul Allen Beck has concluded that current Paul Allen Beck has concluded that current electoral electoral politics is “a tale of two electorates”politics is “a tale of two electorates”

-- one that is partisan and ideologically polarized, one that is partisan and ideologically polarized, resulting resulting from the realignment, or the reshuffling from the realignment, or the reshuffling of old coalitionsof old coalitions

-- one that is independent and nonpartisan, resulting one that is independent and nonpartisan, resulting from from the dealignment, where voters even being anti-the dealignment, where voters even being anti-partisanpartisan

Recent elections, however, have indicated a Recent elections, however, have indicated a potential resurgence in the importance of party potential resurgence in the importance of party identification as split-ticket voting has subsidedidentification as split-ticket voting has subsided

Even though partisan dealignment seems to Even though partisan dealignment seems to have have been concentrated to the late 1960s and been concentrated to the late 1960s and early early 1970s, there is still a larger proportion of 1970s, there is still a larger proportion of the the electorate that consider themselves electorate that consider themselves nonpartisans nonpartisans than everthan ever

Figure 7.8. Reported Split-Ticket Voting, 1952-Figure 7.8. Reported Split-Ticket Voting, 1952-20042004

Source: National Election Study.

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Parties, Citizens, and IssuesParties, Citizens, and Issues

Partisanship has been a long-term and enduring Partisanship has been a long-term and enduring influence upon voter choices, but its impact can be influence upon voter choices, but its impact can be

modified by the short-term and changing modified by the short-term and changing influences influences of of candidatescandidates and and issuesissues

Candidate images are especially important when Candidate images are especially important when the the candidates’ personalities, political styles, candidates’ personalities, political styles, backgrounds, and physical appearances are given backgrounds, and physical appearances are given a a high level of media coveragehigh level of media coverage

Sometimes a candidate gains a major advantage Sometimes a candidate gains a major advantage over an opponent because the opponent has a over an opponent because the opponent has a

particularly unfavorable image with the votersparticularly unfavorable image with the voters


Impact of IssuesImpact of Issues

The impact of issues on voter choice varies The impact of issues on voter choice varies depending upon conditions and candidatesdepending upon conditions and candidates

Although the impact of issues on vote choices Although the impact of issues on vote choices was was not as important in the 1980s and 1990s not as important in the 1980s and 1990s as earlier, as earlier, in the 2004 election issues in the 2004 election issues appeared to strongly appeared to strongly determine citizens’ determine citizens’ vote choices (Figure 7.9)vote choices (Figure 7.9)

Figure 7.9. Impact of Issues on Vote Choice, Figure 7.9. Impact of Issues on Vote Choice, 20042004

Source: National Election Pool exit survey.

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Impact of IssuesImpact of Issues The impact of issues on voter choice varies The impact of issues on voter choice varies depending upon conditions and candidatesdepending upon conditions and candidates

Although the impact of issues on vote choices Although the impact of issues on vote choices was was not as important in the 1980s and 1990s as not as important in the 1980s and 1990s as earlier, earlier, in the 2004 election issues appeared to in the 2004 election issues appeared to strongly strongly determine citizens’ vote choices (Figure determine citizens’ vote choices (Figure 7.9)7.9)

Several factors need to be present for issues to Several factors need to be present for issues to have an impact on voters:have an impact on voters:

1. 1. voters must be informed and concerned about an voters must be informed and concerned about an issueissue

2.2. the candidates must be distinguishable from each otherthe candidates must be distinguishable from each other3.3. the voters must perceive the candidates’ stands in the voters must perceive the candidates’ stands in

relationship to their own issue positionrelationship to their own issue position


Impact of Issues (continued)Impact of Issues (continued)

Generally voters are ill-informed about the Generally voters are ill-informed about the candidates’ position on issues, and some voters candidates’ position on issues, and some voters

project their own position on their favored project their own position on their favored candidatecandidate

Voters’ ability to cast their ballots based upon Voters’ ability to cast their ballots based upon issues issues is also affected by whether the is also affected by whether the candidates engage in candidates engage in issue-oriented issue-oriented campaignscampaigns

The conditions for issue voting are most likely The conditions for issue voting are most likely to be to be met when voters perceive a threat, met when voters perceive a threat, such as the such as the threat of terrorism, or a worsened threat of terrorism, or a worsened economyeconomy


Retrospective VotingRetrospective Voting Another way of viewing issue voting is in Another way of viewing issue voting is in terms of terms of voters rendering a verdict on the past voters rendering a verdict on the past performance performance of the candidates and their of the candidates and their parties, and this is parties, and this is especially important when especially important when incumbents runincumbents run

Issue OwnershipIssue Ownership Parties also develop reputations in particular Parties also develop reputations in particular issue issue areas that help them win support areas that help them win support from voters—they from voters—they ownown certain issues certain issues While the issue reputation of the parties are While the issue reputation of the parties are

generally stable over long periods of time, generally stable over long periods of time, citizens citizens may update how they view the may update how they view the parties on some parties on some issues (Figure 7.10)issues (Figure 7.10)

Figure 7.10. Percent of Public Trusting Figure 7.10. Percent of Public Trusting Parties on Iraq, Terrorism, and Taxes, 2002 Parties on Iraq, Terrorism, and Taxes, 2002

and 2006and 2006

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Surveys (September 26, 2002 and May 15, 2006).

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Social and Economic Bases of Partisanship and Social and Economic Bases of Partisanship and VotingVoting

In the United States, lines of partisan conflict In the United States, lines of partisan conflict tend tend to cross-cut social and economic to cross-cut social and economic cleavages in cleavages in society, and the parties tend to be society, and the parties tend to be broad coalitions broad coalitions embracing a wide variety of embracing a wide variety of interestsinterests

Thus both parties draw significant levels of Thus both parties draw significant levels of electoral electoral support from virtually every major support from virtually every major socioeconomic socioeconomic group, with one exception: black group, with one exception: black voters support the voters support the Democratic Party in Democratic Party in overwhelming proportionsoverwhelming proportions

Although both parties draw some support from Although both parties draw some support from all all groups, they do not gain equal support from groups, they do not gain equal support from each each group—the Republicans and Democrats group—the Republicans and Democrats have have different bases of supportdifferent bases of support

Table 7.5. Presidential Voting Patterns of Table 7.5. Presidential Voting Patterns of Political and Socioeconomic Groups, 2004 Political and Socioeconomic Groups, 2004

(percent of vote)(percent of vote) Kerry

(Dem.)Bush (Rep.)

Kerry (Dem.)

Bush (Rep.)

Democrats 89 11 Family income Republicans 6 93 Under $15,000 63 36Independents 49 48 $15,000–29,999 57 42Liberals 85 13 $30,000–49,999 50 49Moderates 54 45 $50,000–74,999 43 56Conservatives 15 84 $75,000–99,999 45 55First-time voters 53 46 over $100,000 41 58Whites 41 58 Union household 59 40African Americans 88 11 Education

Hispanics 53 44 Less than high school 50 49Asian Americans 56 44 High school graduate 47 52Men 44 55 Some college 46 54Women 51 48 College graduate 46 52Age Postgraduate 55 44

18–29 54 45 Protestant 40 5930–44 46 53 Catholic 47 5245–59 48 51 Jewish 74 2560+ 46 54 Married 42 57

Region of residence Not married 58 40

East 56 43

Midwest 48 51

South 42 58

West 50 49 Note: Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding or votes for Nader.

Source: National Election Pool exit polls.


Economic and Class DifferencesEconomic and Class Differences

As income, education, and occupational status go As income, education, and occupational status go up, the likelihood of voting Republican increasesup, the likelihood of voting Republican increases

Lower-income persons, blue-collar workers, and Lower-income persons, blue-collar workers, and people from labor union households have people from labor union households have constituted a traditional base of Democratic supportconstituted a traditional base of Democratic support

Due to American cultural values of freedom and Due to American cultural values of freedom and individualism, social class has a much weaker individualism, social class has a much weaker impact on voting in the U.S. than elsewhereimpact on voting in the U.S. than elsewhere

However, class-based voting is still stronger in However, class-based voting is still stronger in the the South than anywhere else in the United StatesSouth than anywhere else in the United States


Religious DifferencesReligious Differences

Since the New Deal period Catholics tended to Since the New Deal period Catholics tended to be be Democrats, and white Protestants tended to Democrats, and white Protestants tended to be be Republican, and this pattern is still presentRepublican, and this pattern is still present

Contemporary religious politics revolves more Contemporary religious politics revolves more around the importance of religion in one’s life around the importance of religion in one’s life

than it than it does in the Catholic-Protestant does in the Catholic-Protestant conflictconflict

Indeed, a relationship exists between the Indeed, a relationship exists between the frequency frequency of church attendance and voting of church attendance and voting (Figure 7.11)(Figure 7.11)

Jewish voters have been overwhelmingly Jewish voters have been overwhelmingly Democratic since the New Deal eraDemocratic since the New Deal era

Figure 7.11. Presidential Vote and Figure 7.11. Presidential Vote and Frequency of Church Attendance, 2004Frequency of Church Attendance, 2004

Source: National Election Poll exit survey.

36

45

50

58

6462

54

49

41

35

0

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20

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60

70

Never Few Times a Year Monthly Weekly More than Weekly

Frequency of Attendance

Per

cen

t V

oti

ng

fo

r C

and

ida

te

Voted for Bush Voted for Kerry


Gender DifferencesGender Differences

For long, women’s voting patters tended to be For long, women’s voting patters tended to be quite quite similar to those of men, but since 1980 similar to those of men, but since 1980 women have women have become less likely to vote become less likely to vote Republican than menRepublican than men

This so called “gender gap” is a result of women This so called “gender gap” is a result of women have encountered new types of problems as have encountered new types of problems as

they they have entered the workforce and as the have entered the workforce and as the number of number of single-parent, female-headed single-parent, female-headed household increasedhousehold increased

The others side of the gender gap—the The others side of the gender gap—the movement movement of men toward the Republicans—of men toward the Republicans—has largely has largely occurred in the Southoccurred in the South


Regional DifferencesRegional Differences

Periodically, major issues have emerged in Periodically, major issues have emerged in American political history that have pitted one American political history that have pitted one part part of the country against another of the country against another

In the 1960s, as the Democratic Party In the 1960s, as the Democratic Party rejected rejected southern autonomy on matters of southern autonomy on matters of race policy, race policy, conservative white southerners conservative white southerners began to desert the began to desert the party (Figure 7.12)party (Figure 7.12)

The Plains states and the Mountain states The Plains states and the Mountain states have also have also shown distinctive partisan shown distinctive partisan orientation, tending to be orientation, tending to be core Republican core Republican areasareas

Figure 7.12. Percent of Southerners Affiliating Figure 7.12. Percent of Southerners Affiliating with Democratic and Republican Parties with Democratic and Republican Parties

(including Independents leaning toward Either (including Independents leaning toward Either Party), 1956-2004Party), 1956-2004

Source: National Election Studies.

0

10

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50

60

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80

1956

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1992

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1996

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Democrats Republicans


Racial DifferencesRacial Differences

Since the 1964 election, when the images of Since the 1964 election, when the images of the the parties became sharply differentiated on parties became sharply differentiated on civil rights civil rights issues, blacks have voted issues, blacks have voted overwhelmingly for the overwhelmingly for the DemocratsDemocrats

Hispanic voters also show a strong but less Hispanic voters also show a strong but less pronounced support for Democratic candidates, pronounced support for Democratic candidates, and and they are likely to become an important they are likely to become an important group, as it group, as it is the fastest growing racial or is the fastest growing racial or ethnic group in the ethnic group in the U.S. U.S.

Also, Hispanics turn out to vote at a much Also, Hispanics turn out to vote at a much lower lower extent than other groups, and is thus a extent than other groups, and is thus a valuable valuable target for mobilization efforts by both target for mobilization efforts by both partiesparties


The Socioeconomic Composition of the PartiesThe Socioeconomic Composition of the Parties

In the late 1950s, Democratic voters were In the late 1950s, Democratic voters were northern northern union members, white southerners, union members, white southerners, and Catholics, and Catholics, while Republican voters were while Republican voters were white Protestants white Protestants living outside the Southliving outside the South

By the late 1970s, the Democrats had By the late 1970s, the Democrats had become less become less southern and more black, and by southern and more black, and by 2000, the 2000, the Republicans had become a party Republicans had become a party based on a based on a growing Southern constituencygrowing Southern constituency

The changes in the profiles of the Republican The changes in the profiles of the Republican and and Democratic parties since the 1950s, based Democratic parties since the 1950s, based upon upon people’s party identification, is people’s party identification, is summarized in Table summarized in Table 7.6.7.6.

Table 7.6. Profiles of Democratic and Table 7.6. Profiles of Democratic and Republican Party Coalitions, 1950s-2000Republican Party Coalitions, 1950s-2000

Democrat Party Identifiers (Percent)

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

White Protestants 18 20 17 16 17 15 16 16 26

Catholics 14 16 17 14 14 14 14 12 15

Northern union households 22 16 19 17 16 14 12 14 14

White southerners 31 26 23 23 22 23 20 22 15

Jews 4 4 3 5 3 4 3 3 3

Blacks 9 13 16 18 17 22 22 20 21

Hispanics 1 2 2 3 7 5 11 10 7

All others 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 3 1

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Republican Party Identifiers (Percent)

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

White Protestants 51 50 43 37 38 37 38 32 35

Catholics 10 12 12 14 14 16 14 13 21

Northern union households 16 11 14 16 12 12 10 10 10

White southerners 15 21 23 22 25 25 23 34 24

Jews 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0.3 1

Blacks 5 2 2 3 2 4 3 3 2

Hispanics 0 — 1 2 4 2 7 5 5

All others 2 3 3 5 5 3 4 4 2

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 101* 100

Source: John R. Petrocik, “Issues and Agendas: Electoral Coalitions in the 1988 Election,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Aug. 31–Sept. 3, 1989; 1992, 1996, and 2000 data provided by Petrocik. Used by permission.

*Does not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Partisanship and Polarization at the Turn of the Partisanship and Polarization at the Turn of the CenturyCentury

Many journalists, pundits, and academics see Many journalists, pundits, and academics see twenty-first-century America as being highly twenty-first-century America as being highly polarized along partisan linespolarized along partisan lines

However, political scientist Morris Fiorina argues However, political scientist Morris Fiorina argues that the partisan polarization is an elite that the partisan polarization is an elite phenomenon phenomenon that does not translate to the that does not translate to the massesmasses

Fiorina argues that American citizens are mostly Fiorina argues that American citizens are mostly moderates, caught somewhere in between moderates, caught somewhere in between polarized polarized partiesparties

Others argue that although a majority of citizens Others argue that although a majority of citizens take moderate positions, the most politically take moderate positions, the most politically

active active citizens take very polarizing positions, so citizens take very polarizing positions, so the the electorateelectorate is more polarized than the people is more polarized than the people

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