business and brexit: the risks of taking a stance

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Public

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#IpsosMORILive

Business & Brexit

The risks of taking a stance

Is It Worth Getting Involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential

Gideon Skinner

Research Director

Ipsos MORI

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential 3

There are three characteristics of

the public’s attitudes to Britain’s

membership of the EU

changeable,

ignorant,

and half hearted

Hugo Young, This Blessed Plot


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre

Ignorant? At least rarely relevant… What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

May

1997

Jul

1998

Sep

1999

Nov

2000

Jan

2002

Mar

2003

May

2004

Jul

2005

Sep

2006

Nov

2007

Jan

2009

Mar

2010

May

2011

Jul

2012

Sep

2013

Nov

2014

Jan

2016

Cameron becomes PM

Lowest score

recorded (1%)

UKIP come first in European

Parliament elections

Treaty of Accession:

10 new EU Member States

France and Holland reject

ratification of EU constitution

Highest score since June

2003 (23%)

Between 2005 and 2015 on average

5% said EU was important issue

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

4



Changeable? If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay

in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?

Base: 504 British adults, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5

26%

60% 63%

52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%

51%

65%

29% 27%

36% 35% 32%

39%

49%

27%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb

-78

Feb

-80

Feb

-82

Feb

-84

Feb

-86

Feb

-88

Feb

-90

Feb

-92

Feb

-94

Feb

-96

Feb

-98

Feb

-00

Feb

-02

Feb

-04

Feb

-06

Feb

-08

Feb

-10

Feb

-12

Feb

-14

Feb

-16

Stay in Get Out



Half-hearted? What does the EU mean to you personally?

Source: Standard Eurobarometer 84 Public Opinion in the EU – Autumn 2015

6

49

35

27

26

25

24

23

22

19

16

14

14

14

9

41

11

17

25

22

30

23

19

15

11

11

15

22

9

Freedom to travel, study & work anywhere in the EU

Euro

Peace

Cultural diversity

Waste of Money

Not enough control at external borders

Bureaucracy

Stronger say in the world

Democracy

More crime

Unemployment

Economic Prosperity

Loss of our cultural identity

Social protection

EU 28 UK

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential 8

2016

Europe



49%

39%

8% 3% *%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION ALL 9/10 AND ALWAYS/USUALLY VOTE

Remain still has the advantage

– but turnout makes it hard to call QA) As you may know the United Kingdom will have a referendum on its membership of the

European Union on the 23rd of June this year. How will you vote on the question – should the

United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

QB) If undecided/refused) which way would you be most inclined to vote?

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9

Remain Leave Undecided Would not vote Refused

50%

44%

6% 1% *%



Who is voting to remain/leave?

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10

50% 22%

23%

98%

47% 32%

30% 34%

51%

35%

44%

42%

67%

65% 2%

46%

52%

57%

54% 34%

54% 44%

Con

Lab

LibDem

UKIP

Men

Women

18-34

35-54

55+

ABC1

C2DE

Leave Remain

QA) As you may know the United Kingdom will have a referendum on its membership of the

European Union on the 23rd of June this year. How will you vote on the question – should the

United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

QB) If undecided/refused) which way would you be most inclined to vote?



Remain and leave voters

motivated by very different issues Looking ahead to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on

June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping

you decide which way to vote?

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 (548 remain supporters, 379 Leave supporters) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11

21%

47%

25%

20%

9%

8%

16%

40%

14%

7%

8%

15%

14%

4%

Impact on Britain’s economy

Number of immigrants coming into Britain

Britain’s ability to make its own laws

Cost of EU immigration on GB's welfare system

Impact on British jobs

Britain’s ability to trade with countries in EU

Cost of EU membership fees

Unprompted – top responses only

Remain supporters Leave supporters



Could people be persuaded

to change their vote? You said that you would vote for the UK to remain in/leave the EU. Now thinking about

the issue you said was most important to you, if you were persuaded that on that issue

it would be best for Britain to leave/stay in the EU, how likely, if at all, would you be to

change your mind and vote to leave/remain in the EU?

Base: British adults 18+ expressing an EU voting intention and an important reason (457 remain supporters, 327 leave), 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12

Would definitely change my vote

Would probably change my vote

Would probably not change my vote

Would definitely not change my vote

Don’t know

7%

27%

25%

36%

4%

REMAIN VOTERS LEAVE VOTERS

5%

21%

20%

50%

4%



Both sides think they are going to win… Thinking ahead to the referendum on European Union membership,

which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?

Base: 560 remain supporters and 337 leave supporters aged 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

13

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Britain will vote to remain a member of the European Union

Britain will vote to leave the European Union

Don’t know

77%

13%

10%

REMAIN VOTERS LEAVE VOTERS

43%

48%

9%



Although few doubts among

Captains of Industry As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the United

Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017

Base: British Captains of Industry (102) Interviewed Sept – Dec 2015

14

Which outcome of the

referendum do you think would

be best for your business?

And which outcome would

you personally prefer?

And if there were a referendum now

on whether Britain should stay in or

leave the European Union, how

would you vote?

UK staying in/Stay in UK leaving/Get out Don’t know Refused

87%

7% 4% 2%

87%

7% 3% 3%

83%

12% 2% 3%


Carl Phillips

Research Director

Ipsos MORI


Is it worth

getting involved?


1) Does anyone want business to get involved in

the referendum debate?

2) Will the public listen or trust business if they do

get involved?

3) What will be the impact of getting involved?

I am going to answer

three questions you may have:

17



47%

42%

32%

27%

23%

15%

13%

68%

16%

42%

26%

19%

28%

10%

Government ministers

Backbench MPs

Large businesses and corporations

Shadow ministers

Trade and business associations

High profile CEOs/ business leaders

Politicans from the devolved

assemblies

MPs and Journalists want business

to take a leading role And which two or three of those should take a LEADING ROLE in the

EU referendum campaign?

% T

OP

MEN

TIO

NS

All MPs All Business & Finance Journalists

Large business and corporations

Trade and business associations

Base: All MPs (108) and all B&F Journalists (88) asked, Winter 2015

18

High profile CEOs / business leaders



75%

69%

68%

68%

61%

57%

54%

52%

52%

51%

Small and medium-sized British businesses

Big British businesses which trade internationally

Academics

Big British businesses which only trade in the UK

Trade union officials

Big European businesses which trade in the UK

Think tanks

Newspapers

Local councils

Bankers

And the public are also keen Who should take part in the EU referendum campaign by publicly backing

one side or the other?

Base: All respondents (2007)

19




Small and medium-size British businesses



20

“Remain” want a broader debate Who should take part in the EU referendum campaign by publicly backing

one side or the other?

80% 74%

78% 63%

76% 63%

71% 68%

70% 48%

Remain Leave

Base: Remain (842), Leave (816),

Small and medium-size British businesses



Academics


All MPs All Business & Finance Journalists


But can you influence anyone?

So business has license to contribute

to the debate

Base:

21


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre All who have decided how to vote (1658)

22

Firstly, who can you reach?

73% of

the public

claim to have

made up their

mind on the

referendum

already

23% say

their might

still change

their mind



Banking and media may want to sit this one out


23

Which industry sectors, if any, do you trust the least when it comes to the EU

referendum?

36% said the

Banking industry

28% said the Media

(e.g. Print, Television

and Radio)



73%

66%

64%

46%

46%

36%

36%

31%

29%

26%

16%

12%

Friends and family

Academics

Small business owners

Work colleagues

The ordinary man/woman in the street

My immediate manager at work

Leaders of large businesses

The head of my company

Civil servants

Trade union officials

Journalists

Politicians generally

There are trust issues… Who do you trust on issues relating to the referendum on EU membership?

Base: May change mind (388)

24

May change my mind

Leaders of large business



…which vary according to stance

Base: All respondents (2007), Remain (842), Leave (816)

25

Who do you trust on issues relating to the referendum on EU membership? Top 3

72%

69%

55%

Friends and

family

Academics

Small business

owners

Remain

77%

63%

57%

Friends and

family

Small business

owners

The ordinary

man/woman in

the street

Leave

Leaders of large business 35% 24%


But what about those who

have already got involved?

Trust issues are potentially a barrier to

businesses contributing effectively

Base:

26



Lord Wolfson, the CEO of Next, wrote an article in the

Telegraph newspaper calling for Britain to leave the

European Union.

All who have at least heard of Next from split sample (986)

27

8% of the British public were

aware Lord Wolfson wrote this


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample, Remain (433), Leave (387)

28

Remain

Leave

1%

24%

35%

4%

58%

66%

I’m more favourable towards them

I feel the same way about them

I’m less favourable towards them

Has your opinion of Next changed?



Have you taken action against a business

you disagreed with? Which, if any, of the following have you ever done as a result of hearing

that a company has behaved in a way that you disagree with?

29

30% - I have

boycotted a company

and never gone back

to that company again

22% - I have written

to a company to

complain

20% - I have

recommended that

others boycott a

company

57% have taken at

least one form of

action



Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample (986)

30

1% of the British public are aware

that Lord Wolfson wrote that letter

and say that they will take some

form of action against Next


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample, Remain (433), Leave (387), Undecided (191)

31

8%

86%

2%

4%

REMAIN

85%

10%

5%

1%

89%

6%

4%

UNDECIDED LEAVE

Does hearing the CEO of Next’s opinion on the EU referendum

have any influence on how you would vote?

It makes me more likely to vote to remain

It makes no difference It makes me more likely to vote to leave

Don’t know


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample (991)

32


aware Dame McCall did this

Dame Carolyn McCall, the Chief Executive of EasyJet, was

one of 200 business leaders who signed a letter to the

Times newspaper saying that they believed that Britain

would be better off staying in the European Union.


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample, Remain (412), Leave (416)

33

How has your opinion of EasyJet as a company changed?

Remain

Leave

15%

2%

1%

31%

76%

63%





Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample (991)

34


that Dame Carolyn signed this letter

and say that they will take some

form of action against EasyJet


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample, Remain (412), Leave (416), Undecided (188)

35

9%

87%

4%

REMAIN

1%

82%

13%

4%

7%

87%

3%

3%

UNDECIDED LEAVE

Does hearing the CEO of EasyJet’s opinion on the EU referendum




Don’t know


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce (1971)

36


aware BMW had said this

BMW, which owns Rolls Royce and Mini, sent an email to

its car workers in the UK saying that the company gets a

“significant benefit” from being part of the European Union and

that leaving the EU could affect its UK employees.


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have heard of BMW or Rolls Royce, Remain (831), Leave (806)

37

Remain

Leave

19%

2%

7%

45%

69%

47%




How has your opinion of BMW as a company changed?


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce (1971)

38


that BMW wrote this and say that

they will take some form of action

against BMW


Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce, Remain (831), Leave (806), Undecided (379)

39

9%

86%

1%

4%

REMAIN



Don’t know

2%

79%

15%

4%

6%

85%

6%

3%

UNDECIDED LEAVE

Does hearing BMW’s opinion on the EU referendum




While many people are keen to have

business contribute to the referendum

debate, the number who actually trust

what business has to say is much lower

40

The public still don’t trust business much

Right now it is limiting the ability of

business to contribute


… many people have made up their mind

and changing it will be hard

… Brexit supporters in particular are

unlikely to be influenced easily

… any intervention is going to annoy

someone

… but that annoyance is unlikely to

damage you significantly (if at all) Base:

41

Contribute if you want but remember…


To date, no company has committed 100%

to the campaign

If one did, they may well be able to exert

more influence

But probably at the cost of a greater

negative response

Base:

42


Q&A