building on the building blocks: possibilities and pitfalls on the road to durban andrew light...
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Building on the Building Blocks:Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban
Andrew LightDirector, International Climate Policy, Center for American Progress &
Associate Director, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy,
George Mason University
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Building on the Building Blocks
1. Climate Diplomacyto Cancun
2. Paths to Governance?Kyoto vs. Copenhagen
3. An Agenda for Durban
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1. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun
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Climate Diplomacy to Cancun
• The first Climate Treaty: UNFCCC, 1992/1994. 194 parties – consensus model.
- “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities” (CBDR)
• Kyoto Protocol, 1998/2004.
- Annex 1 (5.2% below 1990 by 2012) vs. Non-Annex 1.
• July 1997, US opts out. Byrd-Hagel Resolution on KP, 95-0.
• Bali Action Plan, 2007
- NAMAs. Emission reductions from emerging emitters in exchange for finance and technology.
- Creation of AWG-LCA. 4
Climate Diplomacy to Cancun
• Dec. 2009: The Copenhagen
Accord.
- First part of intended “two step” proposal by Danes.
- Aspiration to limit temperature increase to 2C.
- $30B fast start climate financing, 2010-2012; $100B annual fund by 2020.
- Outline of an agreement on Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV).
- Requirement that parties associated with accord submit emission reduction plans by end of January 2010.
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The Cancun Agreements
• Dec. 2010: Against all expectation achieve political consensus on building blocks from Copenhagen Accord expanding agreements on mitigation, adaptation, MRV, technology, forestry, finance.
- Creation of “Green Climate Fund.” Specification on transitional committee.
- Agreement on MRV for non- supported developing country actions: “International Consultation and Analysis.”
- Creation of “Climate Technology Center” -- hub and spoke model.
- Showdown with Bolivia challenges consensus process – extended to Mexico-PNG proposal on ¾ voting rule.6
2. Paths to Governance?: Kyoto vs. “Copenhagen”
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Presumed Open Paths to Governance
Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path”
- Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.
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Presumed Open Paths to Governance
Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path”
- Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.
- Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).
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Presumed Open Paths to Governance
Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path”
- Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.
- Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).
- Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy
security, etc.).
Presumed Open Paths to Governance
Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path”
- Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.
- Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).
- Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy
security, etc.).
- Enforcement through market - Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.”
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Deadlock from Bonn intersessional negotiations over past two weeks:
Focus on second commitment period for Kyoto or focus on building out Cancun building blocks.
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Presumed Open Paths to Governance
Kyoto Path Copenhagen Path
- Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.
- Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).
- Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy
security, etc.).
- Enforcement through market - Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.”
- Covers ~35% of emissions.* - Covers ~80% emissions.
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3. An Agenda for Durban
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Problem: While emission commitments go to 2020, finance commitments only go to 2012, resuming in 2020.
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Minimum Gap
(billions)
Fast Start Funding
Copenhagen Pledge
International Offsets
Maintain “Fast Start” level (includes inflation)
Assume doubling in real terms (includes emissions permit auction revenues)
Assumes delay of non-EU carbon markets
Traditional Climate Foreign Aid
Ramp-up urgently needed Midpoint
Increase Climate Foreign Aid
“Ramp-up” Period
Additional $60 billion over three years
No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges.
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2020
No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges.
But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency.
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No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges.
But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency.
Opportunity: US-EU dispute over extension of ETS to air travel in January 2012.
Next step: July 5th hearing in Luxembourg in suit by three US air carriers against EU.
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