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BU Finance & Investment Club Spring 2013 Final Round – Wednesday May 1st 2013, SAR 101 IR Company Valuation Presentations

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BU Finance & Investment ClubSpring 2013

Final Round Wednesday May 1st 2013, SAR 101IR Company Valuation Presentations

#AgendaAnnouncementsInvestment Banking Class taught by Professor Griner Fall 2013IR PresentationsFinal Round Presentations & JudgingSemester AwardsTop Junior Analyst, Top Senior Analyst, Top Sector Presentation awardsSummer IR/IM TeamAnnouncement of positions selected for summer Investment Research and Investment Management

#2EBIT to FCF

HITKMNTA

#Industry Report: Basic MaterialsSub-industry: Silver Mining

Senior Analyst:Andrew HuiJunior Analysts:Michael Clawar, Matthew Siwkiewicz, Will Roeder, Howard Wei

#4Micro-Industry Overview

Companies in this micro-industry explore, develop and mine silver, predominantly in the Americas. These companies are expanding new mines in Mexico or South America. They are small cap companies valued between $1 Billion to $3.5 Billion and are among the largest of the silver mining sector.

#Slide 25Sector and Industry BreakdownMicro-Industry Market CapsRelative Market Size

#Revenue GenerationExploration and Discovery

Acquisition of Permits

Development of Mines

Contracts

Production

Refinement

#Exploration & Discover -- > Aquire Permits Develop Mines Contracts Produce Refine7Company Snapshot First Majestic5 Operating Mines that produced 8.2 million ounces of silver in 20126 Developing projectsProven and Probable Resources total 16.33 MegatonnesOperating Silver Mines

#87 Operating Mines that produced 25.1 million ounces of silver in 20124 Developing MinesProven and Probable Resources total 140.8 Megatonnes

Operating Silver MinesCompany Snapshot Pan American

#AgendaSilver IndustrySilver Mining Sub-IndustryMexicoInvestment RecommendationStrengths and Risks of the Silver IndustryStrengths and Risks of the Mining sub-IndustryMining Opportunities in MexicoValuation and Portfolio Recommendation

#10Industry OverviewProduction vs InvestmentInvestment about 20%2.0-2.4% CAGR2002-20112.03%2006-20112.36%

#Monthly return graph is with adjusted closing price, red = GLD11 AgendaSilver IndustrySilver Mining Sub-IndustryMexicoInvestment Recommendation

#12Production Shortage31.53%30.46%30.74%25.29%23.14%30.08%Supply and demand are the same Deficit is the difference between Silver demand and mine production25% - 30%Silver Scrap Recycling no longer viable as there are no profits

#2002: 31.532003: 32.282004: 30.46%2005: 31.67%2006: 30.74%2007: 26.94%2008: 25.29%2009: 23.14%2010: 30.08%2011: 26.81%

13AgendaSilver IndustrySilver Mining Sub-IndustryMexicoInvestment Recommendation

#14Mexico: Lower Operating Cost

-- Mexico has the lowest cash cost at $7.81 and $8.89 for 2011 and 2012

-- Mexico also has the lowest wages for silver mining workers

-- Lower wages translate to lower operating cost

-- Lower operating cost translates to lower cash cost for producing silver

#15AgendaSilver IndustrySilver Mining Sub-IndustryMexicoInvestment Recommendation

#16Revenue CalculationRevenue = ($/oz Ag) x (Silver Production)

Very simple to analyze company performance

Projections hinge almost entirely on silver price projections

#The Fed has massively expanded its balance sheet over the last 5 years, currently at nearly $3 trillion dollars. This does not look to decrease in the near future, with the promise of an indefinite QE3 and expectations of $40b/mo purchases through 2013, or until targets met (i.e. 7% inflation, which could allow us to project more accurately Fed purchases) FOMC does not project unemployment to get below 7% until at least 2014, so this gives us a minimum of $480b on the balance sheet.

ceteris paribus $1.02 increase in silver price

17Revenue = ($/oz Ag) x (Ag Produced)

#18Projected Silver PricePoint Estimate of Silver Price: April 1, 2013: 27.57

Collapse not predicted by macroeconomic indicatorsPoint Estimate of Silver Price April 1, 2014: $27.73/oz

#Investment recommendationYear2013-e2014-e2015-e2016-e2017-eFCF ($MM)-19.3917.5879.67128.64164.441. EV/EBITDA: 7.6x1 Year Price Target $ 9.89Downside Potential: -17% 2. EV/Reserves 10.3x1 Year Price Target: $ 9.10Downside Potential: -24%DCF: Perpetuity Growth Model: 15%DCF: Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA): 15%EV/EBITDA Weighting: 35%EV/Reserves Weighting: 35%Weighted 1 Year Price Target: $11.68 Downside Potential: -2.5%Current Trading Price11.98DCF: Perpetuity Growth ModelWACC: 7.99%1 Year Price Target: $18.32 % Upside Potential 53%DCF: Exit Multiple (EV/RESERVES)Exit Multiple: 10.3x1 Year Price Target: $ 15.24% Upside Potential: 27.20%

#Why weighted that way?Also because of incalculable risk due to silver price volatilityDCF weighting because we dont believe that either of these models are completely realistic due to the life span of the mines being around 10-15 years. EV/EBITDA and EV/ Reserves. EV/ Reserves looks at the potential that the mines have to produceEV/EBITDA: Gives a bench mark between different companies based on their debt and position

How did you calculate that WACC?

FCF? Why so low and then sudden increase?CAPEX in 2013 and 2014 are different by about 65M, which shows the difference in FCFWe predict in their m&a an increase in setting up the increase and buying more equipment to account for the expansion of production that we have predictedAfter 2014 2017. Capex returns to a more stable amount relative to the pre 2012

20Risks

#Price Fluctuation RisksCorrelation between SLV and GLDAdjusted Closing price0.9157835Monthly Returns0.8188167Silver Gold Correlation

#22Price fluctuation Risks

volatilityGLDSLV

#First Majestic Silver CorpInelastic industrial silver demand resulting in 80% of total demand

Production shortage will drive industrial demand higher

Developed and strategically situated mines in Mexico

CompanyAGRecommendationNeutralCurrent Price$11.981 Year Target Price$11.68% Downside-2.5%

#24Building a Silver Price ModelInflation has been below the Feds 2% target since mid-2011Creates downward pressure on silver price as expectations for future inflation are loweredSilver price is not independent of past pricesTherefore

#26

#Price Fluctuation RisksSilver Gold Correlation

volatility

#29Company Comps VariablesCompanyTickerFirst Majestic Silver CorpAGPan American Silver CorpPAASCoeur d'Alene Silver Mines CorpCDEEndeavor Silver CorpEXKHecla Mining Co.HLHighMeanMedianLowTEV $1,959,506,000.00 $2,020,000,000.00 $1,920,000,000.00 $519,000,000.00 $969,660,000.00 $2,020,000,000.00 $1,477,633,200.00 $1,920,000,000.00 $519,000,000.00 EBITDA 157,377,000 $266,829,000.00 $372,402,000.00 $83,326,000.00 $81,388,000.00 $372,402,000.00 $192,264,400.00 $157,377,000.00 $81,388,000.00 EV/EBITDA12.5x7.6x5.2x6.2x11.9x12.5x8.7x7.6x5.2xEV/Reserves17.152382376.3742505528.70985302155.7614826810.2609523855.8x10.7x10.3x6.4xProven Reserves114241040.00316900000.00220440000.00 9,307,500.00 94,500,000.00 3169000001510777081142410409307500EV/EBITDA1yr Financial Projection I7.6xImplied 1yr Price Target $9.89 Upside (Downside) %-17%EV/Reserves1yr Financial Projection III10.3xImplied 1yr Price Target 9.10 Upside (Downside) %-24%

#WACCWACC Calculation:Cost of Debt8.78%% Weight16%Cost of Equity8.04%% Weight86%------WACC7.98%Key Statistics:Current Price (MM-DD-YYYY) $11.98 Market Cap $1,740,000,000.00 Net Debt $219,506,000.00 Beta 1.18 Shares Outstanding 116,967,240 Tax Rate25%

#FCF, D&A, CAPEXForecasted20132014201520162017EBIT $120,644,941.60 $114,476,940.78 $151,440,316.60 $172,572,406.04 $198,341,406.41 - Taxes 30,161,235.40 28,619,235.19 37,860,079.15 43,143,101.51 49,585,351.60 ------------------------------ $90,483,706.20 $85,857,705.58 $113,580,237.45 $129,429,304.53 $148,756,054.80 + D&A 46,367,500.00 61,805,000.00 71,805,000.00 80,555,000.00 88,055,000.00 - CAPEX 167,700,000.00 123,500,000.00 80,000,000.00 70,000,000.00 60,000,000.00 - in NWC (11,455,333.32) 6,582,957.99 25,720,074.39 11,347,326.06 12,366,751.47 ------------------------------Unlevered FCF $(19,393,460.48) $17,579,747.60 $79,665,163.06 $128,636,978.47 $164,444,303.33 Net Present Value$267,044,335.27 Depreciation & Amort. - 6,697,864.0 9,759,454.0 15,440,000.0 25,405,000.0 46,367,500.0 61,805,000.0 71,805,000.0 80,555,000.0 88,055,000.0 Historical20082009201020112012Forecasted20132014201520162017Depreciation & Amort.CAPEX - 33,886,738.0 34,340,120.0 95,926,000.0 175,134,000.0 167,700,000.0 123,500,000.0 80,000,000.0 70,000,000.0 60,000,000.0 CAPEX

#RevenueHistorical20082009201020112012Revenue $- $59,510,669.0 $120,765,361.0 $245,514,000.0 $247,177,000.0 % growth (volume)% growth (Silver price adjusted)#DIV/0!102.9%103.3%0.7%Forecasted20132014201520162017312770713.6332037389.6409103267.7450013594.4495014953.934%6%23%10%10%26.5%6.2%23.2%10.0%10.0%Revenue% growth (volume)% growth (Silver price adjusted)Change in Silver Price0.771428571111120132014201520162017

#DCF modelsPerpetuity Growth Model:Growth Rate2.50%Terminal Value $3,076,225,005.71 PV of Terminal Value $2,095,635,182.14 Enterprise Value$2,362,679,517.41 Equity Value$2,143,173,517.41 Share Price $18.32 Exit Multiple ModelExit Multiple: (EV/RESERVES)10.3x2017 EBITDA: 286,396,406.4 Terminal Value: 2,938,699,888.2 PV of Terminal Value $2,001,948,122.80 Enterprise Value$2,001,948,122.80 Equity Value$1,782,442,122.80 Share Price $15.24 Upside/ Downside %27.20%

#

BU Finance & Investment Club

Consumers SectorSpring 2013

#35

Industry Definition

Sporting goods stores retail new sporting goods, including bicycles, camping equipment, exercise and fitness equipment, apparel, footwear and other sporting goods and accessories.

Products are sourced from sporting goods manufacturers and wholesalers and then sold to the general public via retail stores.

Department stores, mass merchants and retailers that exclusively sell apparel are not included in this industry.

#

Industry Breakdown

Product Segmentation26%18%7%Sporting EquipmentAthletic FootwearAthletic Apparel

#Revenue GenerationRaw MaterialsLeather, plastic, rubberFluctuations in raw material prices can flow through the entire supply chainDesignDesigned within USInnovative designs influence fashion trendsProductionOutsource productionOutsourcing risk- Currency and qualityWholesalersVendorsNSporting Goods StoresDepartment StoresNYYNN

#

Company SnapshotAn authentic full-line sporting goods retailer offering a broad selection of high quality, brand-name (and private label) athletic apparel, equipment, and footwear through its network of stores primarily located in the eastern half of the United States. The company owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Inc- a specialty retailer of golf equipment and accessoriesChick's Sporting Goods.

World's largest direct marketer and a leading specialty retailer of hunting, fishing, camping, and related outdoor equipment and merchandise.Employs a fully integrated multi-channel retailing strategy :Direct business (catalogs and e-commerce)Retail destination storesFinancial services segment (Cabela's CLUB Visa card).

#

Operational Breakdown

#Trends & RisksThe Gun PlayThe e-commerce play

Weather Trends

12367Macroeconomic SusceptibilityNew store growth pressures

Intense Competition4TrendsRisks

#The CAB Gun Play

Higher background checks, change in gun laws could spark a sharp rise in CABs gun demandAlthough DKS has suspended gun sales following Newtown, they are planning to reenter gun sales under the Field & Stream labelPotentially drive the stock much higher come Fall 2013 (when stores are built)Gun sellers are running out of supply of rifles & ammo

#

Spillover Effect from Gun Sale Spike (CAB)CAB has recently outperformed at 9% comps ex guns and 24% overall comparable store salesIn the last election, Cabelas comps improved from -9.0% in Q3 2008 to up 2.2% in Q4 2008 (more than 3% of which was driven by firearm-related categories) and accelerated again to up 8.2% in Q1 2009 (more than 8% of which was driven by firearm-related categories).

#

Website Analysis Indicates Relatively Strong Online Presence

Unique Visitors (mn)Free Shipping (No minimum)Free Shipping (Minimum Order)Mobile WebsiteMobile Shopping AppDKSCABWeb traffic in the sporting goods category has generally been strong, with most of the sites showing positive year-over-year growth in unique visitors.

However, CAB needs to improve on its shipping services to match its rivals on the e-commerce front

#Price Point Comparison Hints At Insulation (AMZN)

#The DKS E-commerce Play

InitiativeTriple e-commerce business size within 5 years

Sporting Goods US Online Market

Grow powerful omni-channelOnline presence + brick and mortar + mobile capabilities

Return-to-store

Associate Ordering System

Ship-from-store

Pick-up-in-store

2010$ 97.6

6.34%

2011$ 135.4

-

8.29%

2012$ 184.5

$ 5000

10%

Target Impact (5 years)$553.5

$ 8745

10%++

Value of initiatives ~ 10%++ operating margin, 3x e-commerce growthFigures in mn, % refers to Operating Margin300%175%

#The Weather Trend- Delayed Winter Drives Earnings Miss in Q3 and Q4

Buying opportunity on temporarily depressed prices

#Macroeconomic Susceptibility- Unemployment

Unemployment levels - a lagging indicator of DKS and CABs YoY revenue growthAt unemployment highs, DKS and CAB are at lowsDKS:Unemp-0.4572CAB:Unemp-0.7683Correlation coefficients

#Macroeconomic Susceptibility- Personal Consumption Expenditure

CAB: Core PCE0.712942DKS: Core PCE0.53879Core PCE increase has led to a subsequent increase in DKS and CAB revenue growthCorrelation coefficients

#Description1-Day Price Chg %Market CapP/EROE %Price to BookNet Profit Margin (mrq)Sporting Goods Stores-0.57412.49B22.315.73.84.7Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp.0.39333.56M22.589.2922.0291.655Cabela's Incorporated-1.414.55B23.74214.6043.1846.211Dick's Sporting Goods Inc.0.125.92B20.82318.0563.7287.187Dover Saddlery, Inc.-1.4821.30M13.75912.2791.5363.384Hibbett Sports, Inc.-1.041.40B19.95632.7775.8628.904Sport Chalet Inc.-10.5319.30MNA-24.4871.105-1.932DKS Cheap On Relative Valuation, Cautious on CAB

Significant momentum behind CAB stock following earnings beat, we would be cautious about short term pullbacks as many investors might be taking profitDKS is cheap at current P/E valuations while CAB is trading at a premium following the 16% one day jump in priceWith DKS planning to re-enter the firearms game, we see significant upside potential at these valuations

#Risks & Sensitivities (CAB)

#Risks & Sensitivities (DKS)

#Valuation

DKSCAB

#DKS & CAB: Bullish On Strong Growth and Positive Economic OutlookCompany DKSCABRecommendationBuyBuyCurrent Price$ 47.99$ 63.381yr Target Price$ 60.03$ 65.89% Upside/Downside27.72 %3.96%DKS ProsStore expansion plansAdapting well to e-commerce threatCould benefit from macroeconomic tailwinds

CAB ProsPrice point insulation from online retailersGun tradeCould benefit from macroeconomic tailwinds

#Thank You!

Industry DefinitionIndustry BreakdownRevenue GenerationCompany SnapshotOperational BreakdownThe CAB Gun PlaySpillover Effect from Gun Sale Spike (CAB)The DKS E-commerce PlayWebsite Analysis Indicates Relatively Strong Online PresencePrice Point Comparison Hints At Insulation (AMZN)The Weather Trend- Warm Winters Drive Weak Apparel Sales in Q4Macroeconomic Susceptibility- UnemploymentMacroeconomic Susceptibility- Personal Consumption ExpenditureRisks & SensitivitiesRisks & SensitivitiesValuationDKS & CAB: Bullish On Strong Growth and Positive Economic Outlook

#Back up Slides

#

#Shifting focus on efficiency

Consistent Store GrowthExpansion from 419 stores in 2009 to 480 in 2011Consistent sales growth at 7.6% CAGR since 07

Productive New StoresNew Store Productivity has been steady around the 103% mark.

Inventory ManagementSignificantly reduced inventory per square foot from 2007 peak 42.09 to 36.78Recovered inventory turns to pre-recession level, now at 3.37x

Store GrowthSales GrowthEfficiencyNew Store ProductivityInventory per square footInventory turn20092012200920122015e2015e4809007.6% CAGR95%100%36.1403.26x3.4x

#Growth Initiatives

++IncomeStore GrowthLow income, low growthHigh Income, high growthStable income, consolidation High growth, high incomeDKS- 2012DKS- 2015?

#Store Growth and ProductivityNew Store Productivity compares the sales increase for all stores not included in the same store sales calculation with the increase in square footageStrong productivity for new stores signals significant demand and an unsaturated market for DKSSame Store Sales (comps) compares revenue growth for stores existing >1 yearStrong comps for CAB signals that they are ready for their expansion plan for their store base into the future

#Store Growth and Productivity BACKUP GRAPHS

#

>94% between the number of NICS background checks and the amount of firearms manufactured in the US. Greater production of firearms typically correlates >94% with higher ammunition shipments. The correlation between ammunition shipments and background checks is >88%.Stronger historical correlation

#The DKS Gun Play

#

The Typical Sporting Goods Consumer

#

Opportunity for expansion- Unsaturated Demand

DKS expanding into guns:

"Dick's Sporting Goods originally began as a bait and tackle shop," said the sporting-goods store's president and COOJoe Schmidt. "The Field & Stream store will build upon both brands' heritage to provide an excellent customer experience for outdoor enthusiasts."At a consumer and retail conference conducted over the past two days, Dick's said that unlike its namesake stores, it will sell handguns at the Field & Stream retail concept.It plans to open40 Dick's Sporting Goods stores in 2013, along with two Golf Galaxy stores and two Field & Stream stores.

#

DKS Trades in Line with Comps

#

Finance & Investment ClubHealthcare SectorSpring 2013

Senior Analyst: Roy TongJunior Analysts: Quang Le, Matthew DeGennaro, Stephen Jagard, Kotaro MiyagawaGeneric Pharmaceuticals

#Good evening ladies and gentlemen, I am XXX and with me are XYZ, and today we will be presenting our findings on the generic drug manufacturing industry and our stock valuation and recommendations for firms in this industry. 67Hi-Tech Pharmaceuticals targets the right sub-sectors of the generic drug manufacturing industry in ophthalmic products and nasal sprays which have show to have a higher profit margin and limited competition

Hi- Techs Managements strategy has paid off as shown by growth of profitability and stock performance as well as strong financial position of the firm

Momenta is limited by its partnership to a sole development company, which markets and distributes all its products as it does not have its own sales force, and still has a lot of room to grow in terms of revenue volumeInvestment RecommendationCompanyMNTAHITKRecommendationSELLBUYCurrent Price$13.04$ 33.681 Year Target Price$11.68$ 40.51%Upside/Downside9.10 %20.30 %

#We would like to recommend a BUY on HITK, which is currently trading at $33.68, and we have a on year target price of $40.51, which indicates a 20% upside. Hi Tech Pharmas management has targeted the right specific sub sectors of the generic drug manufacturing industry, namely ophthalmic products and nasal sprays, which have shown to provide higher profit margins among limited competition. We however recommend a sell for Momenta, which is currently traded at $13.04, with a one year target price of $11.68 indicating a 9% downside. Momenta is limited by its partnership to only 1 drug development partner, and has only 1 product on the market and has room to grow in terms of revenue volume. However, should their developing products fail to take off, the lack of profitability would continue. 68Industry DefinitionGeneric pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers develop drug products that are used to prevent or treat illnesses in humans or animals

Generic drugs are produced, marketed and distributed without patent protection, yet at the same time comparable to brand listed drug products (if existent) and are allowed to be manufactured after the expiration of patents, and are able to do so at a much lower cost due to the bypassing of discovery costs

Firms in this industry might also diversify by having their own line of brand name/OTC drugs and also acquiring rights and royalties to drugs sold by other companies, but generics remain the primary source of revenue

Ligand PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (LGND)

Avanir PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (AVNR)Celsion CorpNASDAQ: (CLSN)

Sagent PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (SGNT)Hi Tech PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (HITK)Source: Yahoo Finance Industry Center, Various Firms 10K & IBISWorld Analysis

Supernus PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (SUPN)

Akorn IncNASDAQ: (AKRX)

Momenta PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ: (MNTA)

Omeros CorporationNASDAQ: (OMER)

#Generic pharmaceutical manufacturers develop prescription drugs that are used to treat illnesses, and are produced and marketed without patent protection and yet are comparable to brand listed drugs in function. Generics of brand name drugs are allowed to be produced after the expiration of patents, and are able to do so at a far lower cost due to the bypassing of drug discovery costs.Major drug manufacturers are Mylan Teva and Pfizer but we are looking at smaller firms such as Hi Tech, Momenta and Supernus69Health Care Sector BreakdownIndustry Breakdown by Market Cap ($BLN)SGNT$364.84MHITK$450.88MTotal$15.81BSource: Yahoo Finance Industry Center, Various Firms 10K and Bloomberg AnalysisRevenue$52.8BProfit$7.8B (14.7%)Exports$19.6BAnnual Growth (07-12)5.4%Expected Growth (12-17)6.3%Businesses1,103

#Generic manufacturers make up around 10% of the healthcare sector, and operate under the umbrella of biotech and pharmaceuticals, which are around 60% of the entire healthcare sector. The potential firms in the selection have market caps ranging from around 150M to slightly over 1B, most of them being in the 300-700Ms and the largest firm being Akorn with a market cap of 1.25B

70Source: Various Firms 10K and Firms Website AnalysisPre Clinical TrialsRevenue GenerationStage IStage IIStage IIIManufacturersResearch and Development PartnersNew Drug Application (NDA)PassPassPassPassFDA ReviewMarketed and SoldThrough Partner Sales Team or RetailersDirect through Sales TeamInstitutionsRetailers3rd PartyEnd UserRoyalties or LicensesPipelineFDAApprovalInvestments in other assetsDiversifying/Backward Integration

#Revenue generation for generic manufacturers begins with pre clinical trials before moving on to stage 1 through 3, and if successful will apply for FDA review and approval. The pipeline is the core of the manufacturers and how fast they get through it determines how fast they start generating any type of revenue. Upon FDA approval, the drugs are sold either through their own sales team or a partners sales team, in which there would be collection of royalties through licenses.

Investment in other assets include investing either cash or others(research, manpower, facility) in another companys drug development and the collection of royalties when the other companys drugs starts to generate revenue

Diversifying primarily involves having their own line of brand name or OTC drugs, while backward integration involves manufacturing their own APIs that are used in manufacturing their primary product - generic drugs

71Company Snapshot Hi-Tech PharmaceuticalsMarket Cap (millions)P/EEPSDebt/EquityROEROICQuick RatioHi Tech (HITK)457.0715.52 $3.75 1.89%23.17%23.4%4.31Generates 86% of revenue from generic drugsGood short-term liquidity in addition to minimal debt ensuring long-term solvencyExceedingly promising EPS and EPS growthROE and ROIC well above industry averageGrowth strategy to invest more in R&D yielding results as seen by NI growth from 2010-2012Continued strong profitability expectedRevR&D ExpenseR&D % of RevNet IncomeNet Income Growth2010159.337.254.55%31.12217%2011190.849.354.90%41.4533.19%201223012.255.33%48.3516.64%Source: Yahoo Finance, HITK 10K and Bloomberg Analysis

#Hi Tech pharma generates 86% of its revenue via generic drugs. Its quick ratio of 4.31 and debt to equity ratio of 1.89% indicate that the firm has good short term liquidity in addition to its minimal debt ensuring its long-term solvency. Its EPS is $3.75, exceedingly promising as it can be seen to be far higher than the industry average, even higher than large players such as Mylan and Teva pharma. Its ROE and ROIC of around 23% is well above industry average and has been profitable for the past few years. More importantly, its growth strategy of investing more in R&D to expand product range is yielding results, as seen by the table at the bottom right, which indicates net income growth from increasing R&D expense. Hi-tech is expected to have continuing strong growth and profitability going into the future.

Add R&D expenses vs NI for past 3 years to illustrate good use of capitalAdd notes from 10K biz section that indicate growth strategy and management beliefs in performance

USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR WHATEVER YOU THINK WILL HELP THE COMPANY, WHY SHOULD WE CHOOSE IT? 10-K FOR REVENUE BREAKDOWN

as compared to Akorn, Avanir, Ligand, Momenta and more

Net sales of Hi-Tech generic pharmaceutical products increased nearly $30 million due to an increase in sales of Fluticasone Propionate nasal spray. The Company benefited from the launch of a number of ointments and oral solutions but revenues were partially offset by declines in sales of our Dorzolamide products.

Net sales of the Health Care Products division, which markets the Companys branded OTC products, increased due to the relaunch of Nasal Ease as well as increased sales of several other drugs

Net sales of ECR Pharmaceuticals, which sells branded prescription products, declined due to the discontinuation of Lodrane extended release antihistamines. On March2, 2011, the FDA indicated in its MedWatch publication that the FDA removed approximately 500 currently marketed cough/cold and allergy related products. Three of these were marketed by ECR

Increase in working capital by nearly 36 million. A few years ago, they were given a 10 million dollar line of revolving credit that is still in effect.

72Company Snapshot MomentaSource: Yahoo Finance, MNTA 10K and Bloomberg Analysis

Only 1 major drug on the market low revenue volumeOnly 1 exclusive partner development company which also markets and distributes productsGood short term liquidity and long term solvency with no debtSeeking to develop 3 Biosimilars in the near future which have potential but failing which would mean continued lack of profitability

Market Cap (millions)P/EEPSDebt/EquityROEROAQuick RatioMomenta (MNTA)674.77N.A.($1.16) (All Equity)-15.63%-14.17%19.35

#Momenta currently has only 1 major drug on the market with 4 more in the pipeline in the clinical formulation stage. Momenta partners itself solely with Sandoz, which also markets and distributes whatever products that Momenta produces as Momenta does not have its own sales force. This leaves Momenta with a low volume of revenue as it limits the amount of products it can work on. Momenta has a great quick ratio of 19.35 and has no debt, which leaves it potential to start taking on debt to expand production. It has negative profitability but is seeking to develop 3 biosimilars in the near future which have potential but this entails risk of failure, which would result in a continued lack of profitability.

Add R&D expenses vs NI for past 3 years to illustrate good use of capitalAdd notes from 10K biz section that indicate growth strategy and management beliefs in performance

USE THIS AS A GUIDE FOR WHATEVER YOU THINK WILL HELP THE COMPANY, WHY SHOULD WE CHOOSE IT? 10-K FOR REVENUE BREAKDOWN

as compared to Akorn, Avanir, Ligand, Momenta and more

Net sales of Hi-Tech generic pharmaceutical products increased nearly $30 million due to an increase in sales of Fluticasone Propionate nasal spray. The Company benefited from the launch of a number of ointments and oral solutions but revenues were partially offset by declines in sales of our Dorzolamide products.

Net sales of the Health Care Products division, which markets the Companys branded OTC products, increased due to the relaunch of Nasal Ease as well as increased sales of several other drugs

Net sales of ECR Pharmaceuticals, which sells branded prescription products, declined due to the discontinuation of Lodrane extended release antihistamines. On March2, 2011, the FDA indicated in its MedWatch publication that the FDA removed approximately 500 currently marketed cough/cold and allergy related products. Three of these were marketed by ECR

Increase in working capital by nearly 36 million. A few years ago, they were given a 10 million dollar line of revolving credit that is still in effect.

73Trends and OpportunitiesGeneric Drugs Manufacturing Industry Rating:POSITIVEGrowing Acceptance of Generics

Major Brand-Name Patent Expirations

Niche Sub-Sectors of Generic Drug Industry

Key Industry Trends & Opportunities:Trend 1Trend 2Trend 3OpportunityCompetitive Edge in Low Costs

#From our previous presentation, we have concluded the initial analysis on the generic drug manufacturing industry to be positive, with growth fuelled by growing acceptance of generics, low costs of the products and major brand name expirations. However, these give rise to intense competition among generic manufacturers, but this can be quelled by focusing on the right niche sub-sectors of the generic drug industry. 74Generic pharmaceutical manufacturing shows key features of an industry in its Growth stage

The value that industry (revenue) adds to the US economy is growing at a much faster pace than US GDP

Rapid introduction of products and brands coincides with growing customer acceptance of products

This is seen in how market share has grown substantially at CAGR of 5.4% for past 15 years compared to brand name drugs decline

Growing Acceptance of GenericsGenerics RevenueUS GDP% Distribution of Brand vs Generic Sales Mix

CAGR: 5.4%Source: US Census Bureau, Mintel & IBISworld Analysis

#- The growth in revenue of generic manufacturers is a key feature of an industry in its growth stage, with its revenue growth at a much faster pace than the US gdp, which has only just returned to prerecession levels, as opposed to generics revenue which is a good 20% over prerecession levels as seen by the chart on the top right.This shows that the recession from 2007-2009 had little to no effect on it. This growth can also be seen in how the sales mix for drugs has seen generics grow at CAGR of 5.4% over past 15 years at the expense of brand name drugs as represented by the bottom chart.

the generic drug industry managed this growth via the low prices of these generics, which stem from the low cost to manufacture them due to bypassing of discovery costs.75Competitive Edge in Low CostsSource: US Census Bureau, Mintel & IBISworld AnalysisLure of generics are obvious, with a 74% difference in average retail prices as of 2010

Virtually all major pharmacy chains offer generics at extremely inexpensive prices, leading to price wars

Result of this has been an increase in sales of generics, often at the expense of brand names

In 2010, 93% of physicians prescribed generics when they were available compared to 83% in 2003

Some 75% of prescriptions dispensed in 2011 were generic drugs compared to 40% in 2000

Average Retail Prices of Brands vs Generic ($)Pharmacy ChainOfferPriceWalmart30 Day$4CVS90 Day$9.99Kroger30/90 Day$4/$10United HealthcareProvides for co-payments for Medicare Part D$2

#There is a 74% difference in average retail prices as of 2010 between generic and branded drugs. Since there is a low brand awareness and large number of seller of generic drugs, manufacturers have to engage clients with low prices in the absence of brand loyalty. Moreover, with the effects of economic downturn, governments with publicly funded healthcare plans are looking to curb branded drug spending and support wider use of generic alternatives, which are a far cheaper yet comparable alternative.

Next Roy will talk about patent expirations and opportunities for HITK76Lipitor, the top selling branded drug for past decade is no exception to this trendPatent Expired in Nov 2011Sales dropped by 48% in the quarter immediately after the patent expiredQuantity sold of Atorvastatin, generic version of Lipitor, tripled by Q3 of 2012 at the expense of Lipitor, which continued to face a decline in sales

Patent Expirations Lipitor and AtorvastatinSource: IBISworld & http://www.drugs.com/stats/lipitor AnalysisPatent Expired Nov 2011

#Patent expirations have huge impact on sales, as brand name drugs quickly lose market share once generic versions are on the market

Evidence of this can be seen in the case study of Lipitor and its generic version Atorvastatin. The patent of lipitor expired Nov of 2011 and as you can see from the chart, quarterly sales in revenue is represented by the blue bars, which indicate a 48% drop in sales in the quarter immeidately after the patent expired. Sales in terms of number of units are represented by the lines and the quantity of Atorvastatin sold tripled by the 3rd quarter after the expiration at the expense of Lipitor sales

Link to next trend: With the constant flow of patent expiration of brand name drugs comes a constant flow of new generic drugs into the market. However, this breeds intense competition as generic manufacturers compete for market share. So what makes HITK different amid this competitive environment?77Managements strategic focus on liquid dosage forms with emphasis on Ophthalmic products and Nasal SpraysLimits competition due to smaller market sizes but good for long term sustainable revenueDifficult to bring to market, therefore more likely to limit competition, enabling higher margins such as Nasal Sprays with around 20% profit margin compared to industry average of 14.7%HITKs targets include solutions for inhalation and oral liquid solutions and suspensions and have products in pipeline to enter above mentioned markets with total sales of $7.8bil and will lose patent in the next 5 years

HITKs Strategic OpportunitiesSource: HITK 10K AnalysisMarketSales ($bn)HITK Generic(s)Pipeline StageProspectOphthalmic$2.5Timolol & Dorzalomide Ophthalmic SolutionMarketGrowth from 17% of 2012 RevNasal Spray$1.8Fluticasone PropionateMarketMarket Leader / Seasonal

#HITKs management has a strategic focus on liquid doses of ophthalmic products and nasal sprays. These 2 products make for around 65% of firms revenue. Specific niche sub-sectors like these targeted by HITK limits competition due to smaller market sizes of $2.5 bil and $1.8bil in sales respectively, but serve as a good source of long term sustainable revenue. Moreover, these products may also be slightly more difficult to bring to market, therefore more likely to limit the amount of competition, enabling firms like HITK to make a higher profit margin. This can be seen in the 20% profit margin for nasal sprays as compared to the average profit margin of the industry of 14.7%. Ophthalmic products are expected to continued to grow to more than 17% of HITKs revenue, while HITK remains the market leader for Nasal Sprays with Flucticasone Propionate. HITK also has products in the pipeline targeting brand name products with sales of $7.8bil that will lose patent and exclusivity in the next 5 years.

Patent expirations have huge impact on sales, as brand name drugs quickly lose market share once generic versions are on the marketDrugs representing more than $140 billion in sales will lose patent protection between 2012 and 2017The patent expiry of blockbuster drugs would continue to stimulate sales in the generic industry

78ValuationSource: US Census Bureau, Mintel & IBISworld AnalysisYear2013 (est)2014 (est)2015 (est)2016 (est)2017 (est)FCF ($MM)42.7524.2248.7224.8337.39Year2013 (est)2014 (est)2015 (est)2016 (est)2017 (est)FCF($MM)(21.59)(22.73)88.2727.764.05

DCF EV561.321 Year Target Price$42.90EV/EBITDA6.8x1 Year Target Price$38.50EV/SALES1.6x1 Year Target Price$32.14DCF EV689.271 Year Target Price$13.67EV/EBITDA15.6x1 Year Target Price$9.06EV/SALES5.2x1 Year Target Price$9.20

WACC: 8.63 %Growth Rate: 2.5 % Growth Rate: 2.5 % WACC: 9.46 %

#On to the valuation, the WACC that we applied for HITK was 8.63%, and 9.46% for MNTA, with a growth rate of 2.5% held for both firms. The DCF inputs resulted in a 1 year target price HITK of $42.90, with ev/ebitda and ev/sales having prices of $38.50 and $32.14 respectively. The DCF produced a 1 year target price of $13.67 for MNTA, and the multiples indicated $9.06 and $9.20 respectively. 79Risks and Sensitivities$33.00 $35.00 $37.00 $39.00 $41.00 $43.00 $45.0010%30%20%40%100%Disruption to Supply & Production Facility

Litigation and Legal Issues

Delay in FDA Approval

Competitors Gaining Market Share

Weighted$39.29$39.97$39.77CurrentForecasted$40.17$39.17

#Here we have identified some risks for Hi-Tech pharma ranked according to severity of impact and adjusted our target price based on the occurrence of these risks. The numbers of the right indicate the probability of these risks happening. Disruption to the supply chain and production of facility would have the most severe impact, resulting in our target price dropping to $39.17, while litigation issues such as brand name manufacturers successfully suing for patents resulting in a drop to $39.29. Delay in FDA approval for drugs in the pipeline beyond their targeted dates would drop the target to $39.97, and competitors gaining market share at the expense of HITK would result in a drop to $40.17. This would produce a risk weighted target price of $39.77. 80Back UpInvestment RecommendationIndustry DefinitionSector BreakdownRevenue GenerationHITK SnapshotMNTA SnapshotTrends and OpportunityGrowing Acceptance of GenericsCompetitive Edge in Low CostPatent ExpirationsHITKs OpportunitiesValuationRisks and SensitivitiesReference RangeConclusionEBIT to FCFFederal Healthcare SpendingRegression AnalysisMajor Patent ExpirationsInsurance CoverageAging PopulationUnhealthy LifestyleLeading Causes of Death

#When Medicare and Medicaid receive more funding from the government, more consumers gain prescription drug coverage

As a result, industry demand increases with the populations ability to afford the industrys products

Coverage by these government aids usually will not cover the cost of brand name drugs if generics are available

Health Care reform in 2010 expected to continue to benefit generic pharmaceutical manufacturers - PPACA

Source: Office of Management and Budget, Mintel & IBISworld AnalysisPatient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)Section 10609Prevents brand-name manufacturers from making label changes to the brand-name or listed drugs, thereby delaying generic productsFederal Health Care Spending & ReformFederal Healthcare Spending as % of Total Outlays

#Shruti / Sahiba

50 secs Total Now: 4 min 30 secs

- Now moving into trends, referring to the graph on the right, we can see that spending on health care as a % of total federal expenditure will be increasing for the next 3 years before leveling off around 24% as highlighted by the blue line. With the increase in spending, more consumers would gain coverage on prescription drugs, as opposed to OTC and holistic treatments.- Generic drugs, being part of the prescription drugs group, would see demand for its products increase with the populations ability to afford its products. - It also would be in better position to benefit from increased prescription drug coverage as opposed to brand name drugs as coverage by government aids and private insurances usually will not cover the cost of brand name drugs should generics be available. - Moreover, health care reforms from 2010 are expected to continue to benefit generic drug manufacturers such as prevention of delaying generic drugs entry into the market. - Marco will now talk about how patent expiries affect the generic drug market.

Section 10609Prior to the law, a generic drug label was required to match the labeling of the referenced brand name or listed drug, otherwise it would not be approved. Under the healthcare reform law, a generic application can be approved despite last minute changes to the labelling of the listed drug, so long as the labeling change to the listed drug is approved 60days before the patent expiration date or exclusivity period and the labeling change does not alter the warnings section of the drugs labeling85Regression AnalysisBased off anticipated US government spending on Medicare and Medicaid (which can be found from records and projections from the US Government Office of Budget and Administration), we can reason that a comparable growth rate will be found in projected revenue of the generic drugs industryProjected Revenue (Billion $) = 2.0153 + 0.0589 Total Healthcare Spending (Billion $)Accurate within +/- 2.65 Billion $

Source: Office of Management and Budget, IBISworld & BUFC Analysis

#Shruti/ Sahiba

20 secsTotal Now: 3 min 40 secs

Running a regression analysis on historical data of generic drugs revenue to medicare and medicaid spending, we were able to determine a high statistically positive correlation between the federal heatlhcare spending on medicare and medicaid to a common stock price driver, revenue. With the regression, we are able to predict the revenue of the industry with projections of federal medicare and medicaid spending, which are projected to be increasing and therefore we can reasonably state that revenue for the generic drug industry will continue on a upward trajectory.86Patent expirations have huge impact on sales, as brand name drugs quickly lose market share once generic versions are on the marketDrugs representing more than $140 billion in sales will lose patent protection between 2012 and 2017The patent expiry of blockbuster drugs would continue to stimulate sales in the generic industry

Major Patent ExpirationsSource: Mintel, IBISworld & http://www.fiercepharma.com/special-reports AnalysisBrand NameGeneric Name2012 Global Sales (Billions)CompanyPurposeCymbaltaDuloxetine$4.9Eli Lily (LLY)Anti-depressantAvonexInterferon Beta1a$2.9Biogen Idec (BIIB)Multiple SclerosisHumalogInsulin Lispro$2.5Eli Lilly (LLY)DiabetesTop Selling Drugs to Lose Patent by End of 2013

#20 secs Total Now: 5 min 10 secs

Marco Cuesta

- Brand name drugs quickly lose market share once generic versions of their drugs on the market. - Drugs representing more than 140 billion dollars will lose patent protection between 2012 and 2017, with 3 top selling drugs such as Cymbalta, Avonex and Humalog with a total global sales of around 10 billion dollars set to lose patent protection by the end of 2013. - The expiration on the patents of these blockbuster drugs would continue to stimulate sales in the generic industry due to the nature of their direct substitute relation to each other. While there are other substitutes such as CAMs (complimentary and alternative medicines), these lack rigorous clinical testing, making alleged therapeutic benefits questionable and these therapies are more of a threat to OTC remedies.

87Government and Private Insurance CoverageOf the pool of respondents in a Mintel study, 90% of the total indicated that their insurance covers prescription drugs

Furthermore, close to 60% of respondents indicated that their insurance would not pay for Brand Name drugs should a Generic be available

Source: Mintel & IBISworld Analysis

#The results of a mintel survey also further demonstrates the point that generic drugs stand to gain more from increased insurance coverage, as out of the 90% of respondents that indicated their insurance covers prescription drugs, a large 60% indicated that their insurance would not pay for brand name drugs should a generic be available. Brand name drugs serve as the main threat of substitute to generic drugs, and expiration of patents on these brand name drugs have a significant positive impact on the generic drug industry.88Aging PopulationAmerican population is an aging one, with Americans aged 65-74 estimated to see the greatest hike from 2011-2016, followed by 55-64s

This means that the 2 fastest growing demographics are at or approaching the age when the aging process will place them at greater risk for a variety of age-related ailments

The elderly are more vulnerable to certain diseases, including Alzheimers, heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc, which require preventive or treatment measures provided by pharmaceuticals

Source: Mintel & IBISworld Analysis

#MintelThe elderly are more vulnerable to certain diseases, including Alzheimers, cancer, heart disease, diabetes etc.The American population is an aging one, Americans aged 65-74 will see the greatest increase from 2011-2016, followed by 55-64s. This means the 2 fastest-growing demographics are at the age (or approaching the age) when the aging process will place them at greater risk for a variety of age-related ailments. This will be a boon to the pharmaceutical category.

American lifestyle is an unhealthy one Americans do not get enough exercise and have a diet too rich in fats and calories, both of which have been implicated in a number of diseases.Insufficient Exercise: According to CDC, 70% of population is inactive. Research conducted in June 2010 also found that only 12% of respondents meet the CDCs weekly recommended amount of 150 minutes of moderate to intense exercise.Too Many Calories: According to USDA Economic Research Service Data, daily caloric consumption has increased 27.8% from 2172 calories a day in 1970 to 2775 calories a day in 2007Too Much Fat: The AHA recommends that a daily diet should contain no more than 7% of saturated fats and 1% of trans fat. According to heartpoint.com, 34% of the average American diet is fat, with 12% of that being saturated fatsNot Enough Fiber: According to Mintels Fiber and Digestive health report in 2010, the American diet is significantly fiber deprived. Across the board, adults consume only about half of what they should, according to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A lack of fiber is linked to various cancers, heart diseases and diabetes.

Lack of exercise and poor diet are primarily responsible for an increase in a number of diseases:Overweight/Obese: 67% of the population is overweight/obese, 37.5% is obese. According to a Nov 2010 Reuters article, researchers at Harvard Univeristy expect the obesity rate eventually to reach 42%. They concluded that obesity is spreading like a viral epidemic. Cancer, osteoarthritis, stroke, incontinence, hernias and gallstones are just a few of the diseases associated with obesityDiabetes: The number of Americans with diabetes is expected to double or triple by 2050, from about 1 in 10 to 1 in 3-5, according to CDC as reported in an Oct 2010 Reuters articleHeart Disease: Some 81 mil Americans (34%) have heart disease, according to the AHA, and 92.7% have at least 1 risk factor for the disease (obesity, high blood, high cholesterol, diabetes and smoking). This predication appears to be conservative considering that increases in diabetes, obesity, and other risk factors have often been more conservativeCancer: According to the NIH, diets high in fat result in higher mortality rates and incidences of colon, breast, and prostate cancer.

A result in this increase in disease has been an increase in the number of prescriptions dispensed, from 3.8bil in 2007 to 3.9 bill in 2009 (3.2%) nearly double the increase in the US population during that same time (1.8%)

IBISworldThe fraction of the population that is older than 65 will rise during the next 5 years, and this demographic change combine with the greater demand for drugs resulting from Medicare Part D, will continue to generate increased sales in the industry.Several large surveys have shown that older adults, who are affected by chronic disease are more likely to need chronic medication, resort to skipping doses, reducing doses, or letting prescriptinos go unfilled when faced with increased medication costs. This in turn can lead to expensive hospitalizations and adverse health outcomes. However, researchers have found that patients who initiate therapy with lower-cost generic medicatinos have higher rates of adherence, making them appealing to providers who want to ensure treatment compliance and avoid unnecessary spending.

89Unhealthy American LifestyleSource: Mintel & IBISworld AnalysisLack of exercise and poor diet primarily responsible for increase in number of diseases

67% of population is overweight/obese, with cancer and stroke strongly associated with obesity

Some 81 million Americans (34%) have heart disease, and 92.7% have at least 1 risk factor for the disease (obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, smoking)

According to NIH, diets high in fat result in higher mortality rates and incidences of colon, breast and prostate cancer

Unhealthy American LifestyleInsufficient Exercise70% of Population is inactive, 12% of respondents in CDC survey meet weekly recommended amount of 150 mins of moderate-intense exerciseToo Many CaloriesDaily caloric consumption up from 2172 a day to 2775 over past 30 yearsToo Much FatAverage American diet is 34% fat, 12% being saturated, above AHA recommendations of no more than 7% saturated fatNot Enough FiberAdult Americans consume only 50% of optimum amount of fiber

#MintelThe elderly are more vulnerable to certain diseases, including Alzheimers, cancer, heart disease, diabetes etc.The American population is an aging one, Americans aged 65-74 will see the greatest increase from 2011-2016, followed by 55-64s. This means the 2 fastest-growing demographics are at the age (or approaching the age) when the aging process will place them at greater risk for a variety of age-related ailments. This will be a boon to the pharmaceutical category.

American lifestyle is an unhealthy one Americans do not get enough exercise and have a diet too rich in fats and calories, both of which have been implicated in a number of diseases.Insufficient Exercise: According to CDC, 70% of population is inactive. Research conducted in June 2010 also found that only 12% of respondents meet the CDCs weekly recommended amount of 150 minutes of moderate to intense exercise.Too Many Calories: According to USDA Economic Research Service Data, daily caloric consumption has increased 27.8% from 2172 calories a day in 1970 to 2775 calories a day in 2007Too Much Fat: The AHA recommends that a daily diet should contain no more than 7% of saturated fats and 1% of trans fat. According to heartpoint.com, 34% of the average American diet is fat, with 12% of that being saturated fatsNot Enough Fiber: According to Mintels Fiber and Digestive health report in 2010, the American diet is significantly fiber deprived. Across the board, adults consume only about half of what they should, according to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A lack of fiber is linked to various cancers, heart diseases and diabetes.

Lack of exercise and poor diet are primarily responsible for an increase in a number of diseases:Overweight/Obese: 67% of the population is overweight/obese, 37.5% is obese. According to a Nov 2010 Reuters article, researchers at Harvard Univeristy expect the obesity rate eventually to reach 42%. They concluded that obesity is spreading like a viral epidemic. Cancer, osteoarthritis, stroke, incontinence, hernias and gallstones are just a few of the diseases associated with obesityDiabetes: The number of Americans with diabetes is expected to double or triple by 2050, from about 1 in 10 to 1 in 3-5, according to CDC as reported in an Oct 2010 Reuters articleHeart Disease: Some 81 mil Americans (34%) have heart disease, according to the AHA, and 92.7% have at least 1 risk factor for the disease (obesity, high blood, high cholesterol, diabetes and smoking). This predication appears to be conservative considering that increases in diabetes, obesity, and other risk factors have often been more conservativeCancer: According to the NIH, diets high in fat result in higher mortality rates and incidences of colon, breast, and prostate cancer.

A result in this increase in disease has been an increase in the number of prescriptions dispensed, from 3.8bil in 2007 to 3.9 bill in 2009 (3.2%) nearly double the increase in the US population during that same time (1.8%)

IBISworldThe fraction of the population that is older than 65 will rise during the next 5 years, and this demographic change combine with the greater demand for drugs resulting from Medicare Part D, will continue to generate increased sales in the industry.Several large surveys have shown that older adults, who are affected by chronic disease are more likely to need chronic medication, resort to skipping doses, reducing doses, or letting prescriptinos go unfilled when faced with increased medication costs. This in turn can lead to expensive hospitalizations and adverse health outcomes. However, researchers have found that patients who initiate therapy with lower-cost generic medicatinos have higher rates of adherence, making them appealing to providers who want to ensure treatment compliance and avoid unnecessary spending.

90Aging Population & Unhealthy Lifestyles EffectsSource: Mintel & IBISworld AnalysisA result of high disease counts has been an increase in the number of prescriptions dispensed, up 3.2% from 2007 to 2009, almost double the increase in US population in the same time period

Those affected by chronic disease and require chronic medication, a large portion of which are older adults, resort to skipping/reducing doses when faced with increased medication costs which can lead to expensive hospitalizations and adverse health outcomes

However, patients who initiate therapy with lower cost generic medications have higher rates of adherence, making generics appealing to health care providers who want to ensure treatment compliance and avoid unnecessary spending

#MintelThe elderly are more vulnerable to certain diseases, including Alzheimers, cancer, heart disease, diabetes etc.The American population is an aging one, Americans aged 65-74 will see the greatest increase from 2011-2016, followed by 55-64s. This means the 2 fastest-growing demographics are at the age (or approaching the age) when the aging process will place them at greater risk for a variety of age-related ailments. This will be a boon to the pharmaceutical category.

American lifestyle is an unhealthy one Americans do not get enough exercise and have a diet too rich in fats and calories, both of which have been implicated in a number of diseases.Insufficient Exercise: According to CDC, 70% of population is inactive. Research conducted in June 2010 also found that only 12% of respondents meet the CDCs weekly recommended amount of 150 minutes of moderate to intense exercise.Too Many Calories: According to USDA Economic Research Service Data, daily caloric consumption has increased 27.8% from 2172 calories a day in 1970 to 2775 calories a day in 2007Too Much Fat: The AHA recommends that a daily diet should contain no more than 7% of saturated fats and 1% of trans fat. According to heartpoint.com, 34% of the average American diet is fat, with 12% of that being saturated fatsNot Enough Fiber: According to Mintels Fiber and Digestive health report in 2010, the American diet is significantly fiber deprived. Across the board, adults consume only about half of what they should, according to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A lack of fiber is linked to various cancers, heart diseases and diabetes.

Lack of exercise and poor diet are primarily responsible for an increase in a number of diseases:Overweight/Obese: 67% of the population is overweight/obese, 37.5% is obese. According to a Nov 2010 Reuters article, researchers at Harvard Univeristy expect the obesity rate eventually to reach 42%. They concluded that obesity is spreading like a viral epidemic. Cancer, osteoarthritis, stroke, incontinence, hernias and gallstones are just a few of the diseases associated with obesityDiabetes: The number of Americans with diabetes is expected to double or triple by 2050, from about 1 in 10 to 1 in 3-5, according to CDC as reported in an Oct 2010 Reuters articleHeart Disease: Some 81 mil Americans (34%) have heart disease, according to the AHA, and 92.7% have at least 1 risk factor for the disease (obesity, high blood, high cholesterol, diabetes and smoking). This predication appears to be conservative considering that increases in diabetes, obesity, and other risk factors have often been more conservativeCancer: According to the NIH, diets high in fat result in higher mortality rates and incidences of colon, breast, and prostate cancer.

A result in this increase in disease has been an increase in the number of prescriptions dispensed, from 3.8bil in 2007 to 3.9 bill in 2009 (3.2%) nearly double the increase in the US population during that same time (1.8%)

IBISworldThe fraction of the population that is older than 65 will rise during the next 5 years, and this demographic change combine with the greater demand for drugs resulting from Medicare Part D, will continue to generate increased sales in the industry.Several large surveys have shown that older adults, who are affected by chronic disease are more likely to need chronic medication, resort to skipping doses, reducing doses, or letting prescriptinos go unfilled when faced with increased medication costs. This in turn can lead to expensive hospitalizations and adverse health outcomes. However, researchers have found that patients who initiate therapy with lower-cost generic medicatinos have higher rates of adherence, making them appealing to providers who want to ensure treatment compliance and avoid unnecessary spending.

91Proudly Presents theBest Junior Analyst Awardto

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Top Sector Presentation Award

VP Investment Research Joseph McNiffPresident Christopher KovalikVP Investment ResearchXun Yao ChenFor outstanding industry research, teamwork, presentation and participationProudly Presents the

Top Sector Presentation Award

VP Investment Research Joseph McNiffPresident Christopher KovalikVP Investment ResearchXun Yao ChenFor outstanding industry research, teamwork, presentation and participationProudly Presents the

Top Sector Presentation Award

VP Investment Research Joseph McNiffPresident Christopher KovalikVP Investment ResearchXun Yao ChenFor outstanding industry research, teamwork, presentation and participationProudly Presents the

Top Sector Presentation Award

VP Investment Research Joseph McNiffPresident Christopher KovalikVP Investment ResearchXun Yao ChenFor outstanding industry research, teamwork, presentation and participationProudly Presents the

Top Sector Presentation Award

VP Investment Research Joseph McNiffPresident Christopher KovalikVP Investment ResearchXun Yao ChenFor outstanding industry research, teamwork, presentation and participationAgendaAnnouncementsInvestment Banking Class taught by Professor Griner Fall 2013IR PresentationsFinal Round Presentations & JudgingSemester AwardsTop Junior Analyst, Top Senior Analyst, Top Sector Presentation awardsSummer IR/IM TeamAnnouncement of positions selected for summer Investment Research and Investment Management

#122Thank You Please Stay in Touch!

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