brussels, march 10th, 2005 are we living longer and in better health? discussion by jean-marie...
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Brussels, March 10th, 2005
Are we living longer and in better health?
Discussion by
Jean-Marie RobineINSERM, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of Montpellier, France
Female life expectancy in the record-holding country since 1840…
Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
23,000 centenarians in Japan in 2004
Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Total
Males
Females
Centenarians in Japan
More than 1200 persons aged 105 and over in Japan in 2004
Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)
Persons aged 105 years old and over
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Total 105+
Males 105+
Females 105+
Emergence of super-centenarians: more than 20 cases in Japan in 2004
Robine & Saito, 2003 (updated)
Persons aged 110 years old and over
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Total 110+
Males 110+
Females 110+
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Japan_F
Cheung et al, In progress
Distribution of the ages at death in Japan, from 1950 to 2000, females
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120
Prob
abil
ity
of d
eath
Vincent
Vaupel et al
Thatcher et al
Th-K Database IDL
Tokyo, June 2004, females, n=517
Robine & Vaupel, 2001; 2003; in press
HLY-DFLE : Eurostat activities for the development of this structural indicator
Eurostat data sources on limitations in functioning / disability : Minimum European Health Module (MEHM) in the
Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey SILC carried out from (2003)/2004/2005 depending on MS
For 1995-2001, use of the similar variable in the European Community Households Panel (ECHP) for EU15 (excl. LU)
1rst half 2004 : on the basis of the 2003 requirements & supports as well as sources above, Eurostat D/6 : took over the existing methodology (Sullivan method) extracted input data from ECHP & assessed its quality, prepared documentation & computed initial values
1995-2001Source: Eurostat
Trends in LE and DFLE at birth in European countries, 1995-2003
Male
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Exp
ecte
d ye
ar
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
LE
DFLE
Trends in LE and DFLE at birth in European countries, 1995-2003
Female
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Exp
ecte
d ye
ar
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
LE
DFLE
1) Life expectancy:• Small variation in life Expectancy between these 14 MS• increase over 1995-2003
Trends in DFLE using the ECHPSome conclusions
2) Disability Free Life Expectancy and % of years free of disability
• Large variation between these 14 MS• Diverging trends over 1995-2003: reduction / stagnation /
increase in the expected life with reported disability while LE increases
3) Gender differences in DFLE trends in some countries
4) Gender differences in DFLE are smaller than gender differences in LE
Trends in expected life free of disability at age 65
DEU, GRC, IRL, NDL, PRT
AUT, BEL, DNK, ITA, ESP, SWE
FIN, FRA, GBR
Women
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Expe
cted
yea
r
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
Men
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Expe
cted
yea
r
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Ireland Italy Netherland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
Trends in expected life free of disability at age 65
AUT, BEL, FIN, FRA, DEU, IRL, ITA, ESP
GRC, NDL, PRT, GBR
DNK, SWE
The population aging has a different impact in the 14 european populations:
- different levels of reported disability (larger dispersion than LE) - variation in the magnitude of the gender difference- different trends over time
Trends in DFLE using the ECHP Issues and inference
Need to further document cross-national differences in self-reported disability:
- improved harmonisation of the instruments- using different levels of severity (SILC)- documenting differences in reporting- documenting differences in selection in the panel…
Conclusion
Need for• robust indicator(s)/question(s)• conceptually well defined• distinguishing functional limitations (FL) and activity
restriction (AR)• identical for OECDE countries: EU, Jap, US…• long chronological series
Are we living longer?
YES
Are we living in better health?
We still don’t know!