brookings india/chicago talk on criminality in indian politics
TRANSCRIPT
The Merits of Money and ‘Muscle’
Milan Vaishnav | March 13, 2014
Lawmakersandlaw‐breakers?
15%
19%
24%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2009
Minorcharge Seriouscharge
Source: Vaishnav (2014)
%ofLokSabhaM
Ps
Awidespreadphenomenon
Source: Vaishnav (2014)
Keyques9ons
1. WhydoparAesnominatecandidateswithcriminalrecords?
2. Whydovotersvoteforthem?
3. WhataretheresulAngpolicyimplicaAons?
1.Whydopar9esnominatecandidateswithcriminalrecords?
Becausetheywin!
Tighteningcompe99on
Plumme9ngmarginsofvictory
GrowingcompeAAon
IncreasinglycostlyelecAons
Finitepartycoffers
ParAesmoAvatedby
“rents”
ParAeswant“self‐financing”candidates
Thecostsofdemocracy
Whypar9essupplycriminals?
Increasinglycostly
elecAons
Finitepartycoffers
ParAesmoAvatedby
“rents”
PartyelitesprioriAze“self‐financing”candidates
Criminalcandidates
haveaccesstofinance
Frommoneyto“muscle”
Themeritsofmoney&“muscle”
2.Whydovotersvoteforthem?
Informa9onisnottheconstraint
Educa9onandsupportforcriminalcandidates
31.2 29.9
37.134.8
26.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Non‐literate Uptoprimary Uptomatric Collegeandabove
N/A
%voA
ngfo
rcand
idateswith
seriouscriminalre
cords
Note: Vaishnav (2013); N= 2,045
Canpoli9cianslearnhowyouvoted?
76.9%
10.2%4.6%
8.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
No/rarely MostoftheAme Always Noopinion
%ofvoters
Note: Vaishnav (2013); N= 2,045
Uncoveringsupportforcriminality
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DirectQuesAon
Note: Lok Foundation survey (2014); N= 55,538
%ofrespo
nden
ts
Uncoveringsupportforcriminality
1. WealthyCandidate
2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate
1. WealthyCandidate
2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate4. Candidatewithserious
criminalcharges
ControlGroup ExperimentalGroup
Uncoveringsupportforcriminality
48%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
ListExperiment DirectQuesAon
Note: Lok Foundation survey (2014); N= 55,538
%ofrespo
nden
ts
Voterdemandforcriminalpoli9cians
3.Whataretheresul9ngpolicyimplica9ons?
Implica9ons
• InformaAonaloneisnotapanacea
• StrongerelecAonfinanceregime– Independentauditsofpartyfinances– NewECauthoritytoactonfalse/misleadingaffidavits&disclosures
• Needcomplementaryre‐investmentinpublicsectorinsAtuAons
SupremeCourtbacklog
Note: Vaishnav (2013) based on Supreme Court of India (2013)
Cloggedatalllevels
Note: Vaishnav (2013) based on Supreme Court of India (2013)
PoliceshorRalls
Note: Adapted from Vaishnav and Swanson (2013)