broadway & oni: 2016 africa financial intelligence
TRANSCRIPT
A F R I C A F I N A N C I A LI N T E L L I G E N C E
Predictions
2 0 1 6
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MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
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be cautious of investing in saturated exchanges like nigeria & kenya stock exchanges
instead, consider smaller exchanges like bostwana & bvrm
Based on 2015 EndOfYear Performance for B&O tracked exchanges
Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked marketswww.broadwayoni.com
HOWEVER, IF YOU WANT TO INVEST IN THE MAJOR MARKETS, YOUR BEST RETURNS ARE IN
AGRICULTURE STOCKS
Based on 2015 EndOfYear Performance for B&O tracked exchanges
BROADWAY & ONI AGRICULTURE ONE INDEX
We're predicting heavier than normal food demand and very limited supply in 2016
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focus on industries that stand to gain from low oil prices
Based on industry performance predictions for B&O tracked markets
Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked markets
WITH CRUDE OIL PRICES LOOKING GRIM
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18% 13%
TRANSPORTATIONAUTO MANUFACTURING
& EQUIPMENT
We predict best returns from both markets even with overall low market returns
we estimate crude oil prices to peak at ~$48 per barrel and stabilize at ~$45 per barrel
Based on 2015 EndOfYear Performance for B&O tracked exchanges
Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked markets
speaking of crude oil.....
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Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked markets
ELECTIONS WE'RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
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GHANA NOV 2016
GAMBIA DEC 2016
ZAMBIA AUG 2016
BENIN FEB 2016
NIGER FEB 2016
Data courtesy of the National Democratic Institute
situations we're tracking
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Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked markets
nigeria president buhari fighting major battles
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Nigeria's newly elected president is runningout of time to instill some sense of stability inNigerians due to:
Decreased global crude oil prices whichmakes up about 80% of the country's exportrevenue and operating budget.
Dual FX Rates: Even though there arerates set by the central bank, mostindividuals and businesses are trading usingthe much higher black market rates.
Boko Haram: The militant terrorist grouphas shown no signs of stopping its deadlyattacks even though Buhari declared that hehad 'technically defeated' the group inDecember.
Based on YTD data as of December 24th for B&O tracked markets
as china turns, so does africa
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China has long overtaken all majornations to become the biggest Africaninvestor and while the investments werewelcomed by African governments, mostAfrican nations which depend on Chineseinvestment are beginning to showconcern.
The bigger the Chinese economy declinecontinues to be, the more Africangovernments are focused on finding stopgaps so as not to be dragged down withit.
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