A NEW APPROACH TO THE COMPARATIVE STUDY OF US AND

EUROPEAN REGULATORY REGIMESBrendon Swedlow

Department of Political ScienceInstitute for the Study of the Environment, Sustainability, and Energy

Northern Illinois University

Comparative Risk Regulation Workshop University of California, Berkeley

December 13-14, 2012

Standard Approaches to Studying Risk Regulation Regimes

Case Studies

Quantitative Analysis of Existing Indicators

Limitations of Standard Approaches to Studying Risk Regulation Regimes

Case StudiesLack External ValidityLimited number

Quantitative Analysis of Existing IndicatorsLack Internal Validity

A New Approach to Studying Risk Regulation Regimes

Mixed Methods

Comparative Nested Analysis of CasesLieberman APSR 2005Swedlow, Kall, Zhou, Hammitt &

Wiener Law & Policy 2009

A New Approach to Studying Risk Regulation Regimes

Representative Sample of Cases Research Questions of Wide Interest Distributed Data-gathering Approach Data-gathering integrated into course

instruction Comparative Nested Analysis of Cases

11,086 “verbatim” risks from 254 sources in literature on risk perceptions, ranking, and classification, 1960-2003, in US and Europe

Universe of all risks

3,000 “unique” risks (recom-bining essentially identical “verbatim” risks)

In 19 categories and 95 sub-categories

2,878 “unique” risks

In 18 categories and 92 sub-categories

(dropping 122 unique risks, 1 category, and 3 subcategories)

100 in random sample;

92 in stratified random sample

Constructing a Representative Sample

Table I. Risks by TypePercentage in:

Code Category Matrix Sample1 Crime and violence 1.8 32 Alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs 3.0 33 Medication and medical treatment 6.8 84 Transportation 8.2 135 Accidents not elsewhere classified 2.4 26 Recreation 5.5 87 War, security, and terrorism 1.5 38 Toxic substances 9.8 89 Food and agriculture 9.5 910 Pollution 7.5 811 Energy production 5.0 312 Political, social, and financial 3.4 113 Ecogeological 4.0 214 Global 2.2 115 Human disease/health 9.7 916 Occupational 15.0 1717 Consumer products 3.4 218 Construction 1.4 0Total percentage 100 100Total number 2,878 100

100 Risks Randomly Selected from a Universe of 2878 Risks (and their distribution across 18 Risk Categories and 92 Risk Subcategories)

Risk Categories (18) and Subcategories (92)

100 Representative Risks

1. CRIME AND VIOLENCE RISKS Burglary

Sabotage

Firearms

2. ALCOHOL, TOBACCO, AND OTHER DRUG RISKS

 

  Alcohol risks Sake

  Tobacco risks Smoking regulations

  Drug abuse (Non-prescription illegal drugs) risks

Pot smoking

3. MEDICATIONS AND MEDICAL TREATMENT RISKS

 

  Adverse drug reaction risks Shortage of medicines

Caffeine - chronic effects

  Medical procedure risks Childbearing

Radiation therapy

  Medical error risks not elsewhere classified  

  Vaccination risks Vaccination - side effects

  X-ray risks  

  Other medical risks Health care facilities and services - exposure to physical agents

Health care facilities and services

Genetic engineering

Theories of Regulation

Theories of regulation are propositions or sets of hypotheses about Why regulation emerges Which actors contribute to that emergence Typical patterns of interaction among regulatory actors

-- Morgan & Yeung 2007 All theories of regulation will have to explain

variation in Information gathering Standard setting Behavior modification

-- Hood, Rothstein, & Baldwin 2001

Research Questions of Wide Interest

(1) How is the risk defined and assessed?

(2) Who regulates the risk?

(3) How is the risk regulated?

(4) Why is the risk assessed and regulated the way that it is?

(5) What are the consequences of assessing and regulating the risk the way that it is?

Distributed Data-Gathering Approach

Collaborative Research Network (CRN) Relies on Researchers Collecting Data in

Countries where they are based Advantages:

Uses native knowledge Cheaper Can be sustained over time

Data-gathering Integrated Into Course Instruction

Initial data-gathering done by students in research paper assignments

First three research questions have been answered for US & Illinois for almost all 100 risks

Now focusing on sub-sample of 30 risks Martin Lodge’s LSE students now

studying same 30 risks in UK

Hypotheses

Size of Risk Equals Size of Regulatory Effort

If Size of Risk Not Equal to Size of Regulatory Effort, then Regulatory Effort explained by Market Failure Public Opinion Interest Groups Political Culture Etc.

-- Hood, Rothstein & Baldwin 2001

Comparative Nested Analysis

RAs extracting information from student papers on Size of risk Size of regulatory effort

RAs will code size of risk & regulatory effort as large, medium, or small

Coding will allow regression analysis of how size of risk relates to size of regulatory effort Regression analysis will reveal cases where these

are in alignment and cases where they are not Both kinds of cases will be studied further to determine

causes of differences in risk assessment & regulation