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Bredbånd i et historisk perspektivFagseminar Telekom, 7. mars 2017
Harald Wium Lie
Partner, Nexia Management Consulting
Bredbånd i 2016Internett-bruk
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10
20
30
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50
60
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80
90
100
Percentage who use Internet every week
Source: Eurostat Community Survey on ICT usage in Households and by Individuals (2016)
Bredbånd i 2016Average achieved connetion speed
Source: Akamai state of the Internet (2016)
4
The Norwegian Broadband Model
Based on International Best Practice
Technology neutral
Market driven
Enough capacity to "meet needs"
Targeted subsidies
5
Vi vet ikke hvor mye vi trenger
Vi kjenner ikke “de beste” teknologiene
Bør vi bruke offentlige midler på dette?
Folk sier alt mulig rart
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7
Respons fra Bredbånds-Norge
~140
> 10
All sorts of business models
8
Akkurat som da vi bygde kobbernettet
9
And it’s probably a good ideaAnd it’s probably a good idea
Cultural fit
The nine most terrifying words in the English language:“ I'm from the government and I'm here to help”
The ten most terrifying words in the Norwegian language:
(and it eats strategy for breakfast)
“ I'm from the CENTRAL government and I'm here to help”
Bredbånd i 201678% dekning 100 Mbit/s nedstrøm
Source: tjekditnet.dk, statistik.pts.se, nkom.no
Country ≥100 Mbit/s download
≥30 Mbit/s upload
Denmark (2015) 85% 85%
Sweden (2015) 69%
Norway (2015) 73% 63%
Bredbånd i 2016Nasjonalt nivå: Stor fremgang
94
47
2831
63
29
93
49
31 32
68
51
91
49
37 35
71
78
70
90
100
89
51
41
47
74
82
88
99 100
91
53
4650
79
85
93
100 100 100
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
xDSLVDSL+ADSL
HFC FTTH VDSL FTTH+HFC FTTH+HFC+VDSL
LTE(innendørs)
LTE(utendørshåndholdt)
LTE(utendørsmed
antenne)
Radio(utendørsmedantenne)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bredbånd i 2016Men fortsatt store forskjeller på by og land
13
Valgmuligheter - aksessmetoder
Bredbånd i 2016Endringer i TV-titting
Source: DR Medieforskning (2016)
Fixed data volumes
Average residential broadband use in UK:
112 GB/month (2015)
Higher use for high-capacityconnections
Norwegian use likely to be at least as high as in UK
Mobile data volumes
Bredbånd i 2016Forbruk av data
Rank Country 2014 2015 Growth
1 Finland 2 644 5 012 90 %
2 Latvia 1 344 3 657 172 %
3 Sweden 2 104 2 678 27 %
4 Korea 1 711 2 463 44 %
5 USA 979 2 193 124 %
7 Denmark 1 117 2 015 80 %
13 Singapore 1 017 1 265 24 %
14 Norway 731 1 170 60 %
16 UK 534 863 62 %
20 France 325 572 76 %
21 Germany 289 435 51 %
Mbyte/sim/month
Source: Tefficient (2016)Source: Ofcom (2016)
Mot 2025
IOT
SMARTE BYER
The digital family
The digital family (4 persons) Max Capacity need Data usage
concurrent Mbit/s GB/month
Activity Service Night Down Up
Web, cloud, social media Cloud services
1st user 1 50 15 60
Extra users 3 3 1 20
Audio & video Video streaming 3 47 1 1 240
Video conference 1 5 5 50
Gaming 1 20 5 190
Voice 2 0.6 0.6 3
Smarthouse M2M 50 0.5 0.5 20
Video Surveillance 2 10 10 140
Capacity need Mbit/s (rounded up to nearest 5 Mbit/s) Normal 140 40 1 710
High 160 50
Low 120 35
Main bandwidth drivers• Cloud services• Video streaming (work/education/entertainment)• Gaming/VR• Social media • Home appliances / smart house
The digital family
150
1710
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
est. 2015 est. 2025
Data volume fixed (GB/month)
Low
Normal
High
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
HomeDownstream
HomeUpstream
Mobileper member
Capacity needed (Mbit/s) Data volume mobile (GB/month)
2
75
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
est. 2015 est. 2025
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Hva kan vi gjøre?- Hvilke verktøy finnes i kassa?
Bygge eget nett?
- Ref. Sverige
Dugnad
Avvent – la markedet styre
Samfinansiering- operatør, kommune,
sluttbruker
Kjøp av tjenester mot utbygging
Trekkrør, føringsveier og graveregler
Annen offentlig støtte- Regionalt og statlig
Hvordan skal disse
kombineres?
Husk ulikheter mellom
kommuner!
Hvordan samarbeide med
operatører?
20
På tide med lokale bredbåndsplaner
Bredbånd blir litt viktigere for hver dag– Husstander
– Bedrifter
– Offentlig sektor
All business is local– 80% av investeringer skjer lokalt
– Lokale regler & praksis svært viktig for etablering av nett
Finansiering vil bli vanskeligere over tid
En lokal plan vil gi retning og forutsigbarhet– Signaler til utbyggere og brukere
21
Ikke kødd med Internett
Det som er viktig (voiceover til «mot 2025» plansjen)
Bandwidth needs continue to increase– Video is main bandwidth driver
– Danish networks well positioned keep up with demand
Data volume consumption increases faster than bandwidth needs
Bandwidth needs change– Wireless becomes the dominant access medium in the home
– Strong increase in need for mobile bandwidth
Increasing quality requirements– Short delays, support for diverse application classes
Robustness/stability becomes as important as capacity– Network connectivity required in almost all critical processes and infrastructures
– Individual and collective health and safety dependent on networks
Backup
Entertainment and communication:Video is the number one bandwidth driver
Video content is increasingly carried over the Internet– Linear TV in decline
– ”Over the Top” providers dominating
Over 70 % of downstream Internet traffic in North America is streaming video– Netflix alone is 37 %, Youtube is 18 %
Video resolution will increase, driven by larger screens– 4K video likely to be commonplace over the next few years
– 4K video requires 15 - 20 Mbit/s capacity for decent quality
– We might see 8K before 2025
Source: Sandvine Global Internet Phenomena, streamingmedia.com
Future video is likely to be- 4K resolution (4096 × 2160 pixels)- High Dynamic Range (HDR) for better image
quality- 50 frames per second (FPS) update rate
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SD HD UHD/4K
Bandwidth consumption (Mbit/s)
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SD HD UHD/4K
Data volume (GB/hour)
Source: netflix.com, youtube.com, carltonbale.com
Entertainment and communication:Video is the number one bandwidth driver
Entertainment and communication:From multicast to unicast
Much (some say all) video expected to be unicast by 2025, driven by change from linear TV to streaming
Large consequences for networkarchitecture (technology, capacity, distribution strategy)
Peak hour traffic grows faster than averagetraffic
Less important for access link dimensioning
Entertainment and communication:Diversity in devices
The number of connected devices is increasing– Average household in North America has
over 7 connected devices
Stationary and laptop PCs account for less than 25 % of fixed network traffic– Tablets and mobile over 30 %
Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality/cloudgaming is a potentially large newbandwidth driver– Take-up uncertain– Bandwidth use uncertain
Source: Sandvine Global Internet Phenomena
Work and leisure:Everything in the cloud
Applications
Data
Processing
Driven by– Diversity in devices (access everything from
anywhere)
– Decrease in cost for storage
– Availability of sufficient (and cheap) bandwidthcapacity
– Requirements for reliability/robustness
– Cost savings
Internet of Things:Millions of connected devices
Klaus Schwab (Executive Chairman World Economic Forum) predictions for 2025:
10% wear clothes connected to the Internet 10% of all glasses are connected to the Internet More than 50 % of Internet traffic for «appliances and devices»
– Self driving cars– Smart houses– Welfare technology– 1000 apps that we have not yet heard of
Source: Klaus Schwab: The fourth Industrial Revolution
Connected devices will have large impact on network architectures Number of connected devices – scalability Low power consumption Delay requirements
The bandwidth usage of most IoT devices will probably be low IoT will not be the main bandwidth driver
Smart cities and transport:Realtime communication for vehicles and infrastructure
Autonomous cars will be packed with cameras, sensors and other data-producing devices- Latest Tesla model X has 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonars plus
radar- At present, cars used for mapping can generate 100 GB
data in one day
Vehicles will have increasing communicationsrequirements- Software updates- Entertainment and information systems- Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-curb communications
Most processing likely to be done locally- Other requirements more important than bandwidth
Welfare technology:Communication lifeline
Technology will allow people to safely live at home longer (+ economic push)
Safety requires a dependable broadbandconnection
Capacity requirements will be modest compared to entertainment: video is maincapacity driver
Robustness essential – redundant lines probably needed
All services go mobile:Individualization of needs
Mobile devices are central in work and leisure
Mobile traffic grows at a much faster pace than fixed
Consumer expectations change– Connected everywhere with sufficient capacity
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PB
per
mo
nth
Consumer Internet traffic
Fixed Mobile
Source: Vala Ashfar, Cisco Visual Network Index, DR Medieforskning (2016)
CAGR: 22 %
CAGR: 54 %
Approach
Estimate peak bandwidth need for selected user groups– The busiest 5 min average during a day
Fixed bandwidth need and data volume is sum of connected users
Mobile bandwidth need and data volume is individual use
Broadband needs towards 2025Reference groups
The digital family
• 4 household members• Heavy use for work, school and
entertainment• Early adaptors of new technology• Mobility important
The engineer@home
• Home office for construction engineer• Heavy use of video conferencing• Heavy use of specialized applications• Frequent transfer of large datasets
The digital plumber
• Plumbing firm with 10 employees• Cloud applications and video conferencing at
headquarters• Digital work platform at customer sites• Video-based support on site
The single household
• 1 household member (Laura, 79 years)• Entertainment is bandwidth driver• Enjoys visits from grandchildren• Dependent on online welfare services
Summary of capacity needs
Low
Low
Normal
Normal
High
High
020406080
100120140160180
The digitalfamily
SingleHousehold
The digitalplumber
Theengineer @
home
Downstream Capacity
LowLow
Normal
Normal
High
High
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
The digitalfamily
SingleHousehold
The digitalplumber
Theengineer @
home
Upstream Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The digitalfamily
SingleHousehold
The digitalplumber
Theengineer @
home
Mobile Capacity per user
Summary of data volumes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
The digitalfamily
SingleHousehold
The digitalplumber
The engineer@ home
Gig
abyt
e/m
on
th
Fixed data usage (total)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
The digitalfamily
SingleHousehold
The digitalplumber
The engineer@ home
Gig
abyt
e/m
on
th
Mobile data usage per member