Breaking down BrexitSince the June 2016 Brexit referendum, debate over the future of British foreign policy has been intense. This short primer presents succinct facts on the UK’s most important trading partners, possible outcomes and the key events since the vote.

Countdown to Brexit

29 March 2017May triggers Article 50, setting a two-year window to secure an orderly exit.

17 January 2017 May delivers Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK’s Brexit negotiation priorities.

13 July 2016Theresa May becomes prime minister after a brief leadership contest.

23 June 2016UK holds referendum on EU membership, with 52% of voters choosing to leave. David Cameron resigns the next day.

8 June 2017UK holds a general election that results in a hung parliament, with May’s Conservatives forming government.

6 July 2018 In a meeting at Chequers, the UK cabinet agrees on a future Brexit negotiating position.

Trade sourcesImports Exports

US (£29.4bn)Germany (£13.6bn)Netherlands (£10.8bn)France (£10.3bn)Ireland (£9.7bn)China (£6bn)Belgium (£5.4bn)Italy (£4.9bn)Spain (£4.4bn)Switzerland (£4.2bn)

US (£19.1bn)Germany (£18.5bn)China (£12.3bn)Netherlands (£12.1bn)France (£11.1bn)Spain (£9bn)Belgium (£7.2bn)Italy (£6.3bnIreland (£6bn)Norway (£5.3bn)

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UK imports from Singapore

£1.1bn

UK exports to Singapore

£2bn

UK services exports to Singapore Q3 2018:

Technical, trade-related services £198mTravel services £139mFinancial services £106m

UK services imports from Singapore Q3 2018:

Technical services £195mFinancial services £89mTransportation services £62m

13 March 2019Parliament votes to rule out a ‘no-deal’ exit by a margin of 312 to 308.

29 March 2019 Date the UK was initially scheduled to leave the EU.

23 May 2019European Parliament elections begin; uncertainly over the UK’s participation.

15 January 2019 May government loses ‘meaningful vote’ on Brexit deal by a majority of 230.

14 March 2019MPs pass a motion by 211 votes granting the government permission to seek an Article 50 extension.

The outcomesThe UK leaves the European Union without a negotiated withdrawal agreement, a ‘hard’ or ‘cliff-edge’ Brexit. This would have serious consequences for the economies of both the UK and the EU.

May’s agreement settles Britain’s financial commitments to the EU, but has proven unpopular due to the nature of the Irish ‘backstop’. The parliamentary calculus may yet result in May’s deal ultimately being voted through parliament.

The UK may decide to hold a second poll given the change in the political climate since the first referendum almost three years ago. Alternatively, a new general election could be held if May fails to pass her deal and/or resigns.

If May successfully renegotiates her withdrawal agreement, or if a general election results in a pro-Remain parliamentary bloc holding a majority, then a disparate outcome, such as customs union membership, may be the ultimate outcome.

What they sayThe choice is in your hands – but my recommendation is clear. I believe that Britain will be safer, stronger and better off by remaining in a reformed European Union.UK Prime Minister David Cameron, February 2016

The key risk event is Brexit. There are few indications that an agreement between the UK and the EU can be reached before the 29 March separation deadline.Monetary Authority of Singapore Managing Director Ravi Menon, February 2019

Brexit means Brexit, and we’re going to make a success of it.UK Prime Minister Theresa May, July 2016

The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be only salt and vinegar.Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, November 2018

Nobody is winning. We are all losing because of the UK leaving.EU Council President Donald Tusk, October 2016