Brazil's Progress Toward the Future of AgricultureCities’ Role Perspectives

Antonio Oliveira, Ph.D

CGEE - A Brief Description

CGEE ORIGINS

• Created in 2001• Non-profit organization• STI studies for economic

growth competitiveness and well being in Brazil

CONTROLS

• Overseen by the Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation

• Subjected to auditing by Brazilian Supreme Audit Institutions

SIZE AND BUDGET

• Staff ~80 employees• Annual budget 10M US$

STRENGTHS

• ~ 2000 experts from 300 institutions per year

• ~ 400 studies in Science Technology and Innovation

To promote Science, Technology and Innovation to advance economic growth, competitiveness and well-being in Brazil

Mission and core activities

Future StudiesStrategic Evaluation

Information and Knowledge Management

CGEE

The Study

Objective

Identifying integrated courses of action aiming atstrengthening Brazil's proactive role towards thesustainability of food production

Main Challenges

70%

100% Developingcountries

world

2050 Em

tons of grains1 billion

200 mitons of meat

Annual production must increase at least¹:

Grain average growth²

Food demand

Challenges

¹ FAO 2013; ² FAO 2009;

Avoid food waste and losses

¹ FAO (201?); ² TESCO (2013);

World

30 – 50% 1,2 – 2 billion tons per year

-25% of waste =

feed 500 milhões people/year¹

14,5%

In UK (TESCO):

fruits and vegetables

Waste in the UK²

21% 41% 50%

banana²backery items

1,5 Millions of tons/year

Challenges

Workshop with specialists

Dimensions

Key Drivers

Drivers - Population growth

¹ FAO, 2009; ² UN data from Global Harvest Iniative GAP Report, 2011; ³ IBGE, 2013;

2050

In

+ 2,3 billions¹ Major populationgrowth²

total of 9,3 billions

�41%

�49%

“zero growth”

20502042

Brazil³

World

2013

201 mi inhabitants

0 – 1415 – 64

> 6568,4%

7,4%

24,1%

63,2%

22,6%

14,1%

Demographic window

226 miinhabitants

¹ FMI (2011)

per capita income (estimated)

39em 2050

mil(US$)

BrasilRussiaChina

IndonesiaIndia

100% 53%

85% 75%

67%

Brazil

World¹

Between 1990 and 2016

10.3em 2013

mil(US$) 21

em 2030

mil(US$)

Drivers - per capita income growth

¹ World Bank (2014); ² Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas- PBMC (2013)

Soya

going up

going down

Sugarcane

+ =35% greenhousegases emissions

Brazil²

World¹ | Greenhouse gases emissions (15%)

18%enteric fermentation

Estimated lossesin 2020: R$ 7,4 bilions

35% 20% 12%

Irrigated rice (paddy)

Enteric fermentation Fertilizers

12%

Animal waste

Drivers - Global climate change

¹Euromonitor (2012);

5 milhões aging between18 to 34 in 2010

270 million people

in households occupied by just one person

Brazil

World

10% of households occupied by just one person

searching for food easyto prepare and consume

77%

28%

2006

Drivers - consumers habits and behaviors¹

Single person household andolder people

Heathier food

Practical and convenience

Higher collective consciousness

Gourmet

Digital Cooking

Homemade

Vegetarianism

HealthCertified originFunctional foodGood nutrition Easy preparation

Intelligent packagingE-commerce

Personal satisfaction & collective well-beingSustainabilityLocal production

Sensorial experiencesDifferential in qualitySophistication

Highly customized production (individual and industrial)High variety of new ingredients 3D manufacturing

Cultural preferencesHomemade meals at working environmentsTradition

No animal protein intake (total or partial)Animal protein substitutes (“fake meat”)

Drivers - trends at consumers level

¹ United Nations (2011); ² IBGE (2013)

Brazil²

1950 2050201014% 6%36,2%

Urban 70% Rural 30%

2012

2050

Urban 50% Rural 50%World1

94%86%63,8%

urban

rural

Drivers - Urbanization

Analysis and interpretation

Pillars of Sustainable Food in Brazil

32

A extração dos elementos anteriormente mencionados e a identificação de palavras-chaves foram feitas pela equipe do estudo e posteriormente inseridas em ferramenta desenvolvida para este fim, denominada mindshare. Essa ferramenta cria, automaticamente, nuvens de palavras-chaves associadas ao tema em análise e permite que a partir de palavras-chaves de interesse particular seja possível recuperar as informações relacionadas às mesmas produzidas ao longo do estudo, conforme exemplo ilustrado na Figura .

Figura 4. Nuvem formada pelas palavras chave selecionadas no estudo Política de Recursos Hídricos

Fonte: dados do Estudo.

CT&I, educação e capacidade

I

II

Viabilidade

econômica, social e

ambiental

III

Infra

estr

utur

a,

logís

tica e

tecn

olog

ia

da in

form

ação

VI

Cons

umo,

saúd

e e

bem

–est

ar

V

Cultura de comércio

internacional

IV

Promoção deempreendedorismo

Projeto alimentos

Figura 5. Pilares para a sustentabilidade e sustentação da produção de alimentos no Brasil

Fonte: dados do estudo.

Sustainable Food

Entrepreneurship

Science, Technology,

Education and Capacity Building

External Agents of the Food Suply Chain

Certifying Agencies

Software industries

Regulatory Agencies

International Organizations

STI institutions

Funding Agencies

Challenge: diversify food products in the market

Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building

R&D applied to discovering new polymers and substances obtained from biology engineering platforms

Recommendation

Important to be competitive at the 3D manufacturing market

Justification

Conclusion and Recommendations

Challenge: creating a competitive differential for the food industry

Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building

Establish the carbon footprint in thewhole food chain

Recommendation

Selo Baixo Carbono, MMA; Coalizão de Empresas pelo Clima, FBDS

Conclusion and Recommendations

The Role of Cities

The Role of Cities

Slide 25

§ 680 solutions organised in 12 interconnected themes

Results

5653 56 49 8460

38 78 63 415250

Energia

Health Agriculture Solid waste Water Security Governance

Built-in Environment Energy Economy Resilience Mobility Education

Slide 26

Urban &Peri-urban Agriculture

v Rooftop Farmingv Green Wallsv Green Belts v Beekeeping v Vertical Farming

Slide 27

Producers and Consumers Relationship

v Creation of cooperatives v Agreements between

schools and small farmers

v Online sales of productsv Municipal markets

Slide 28

Policies and Programs

v Urban agriculture in city planning

v tax incentives for production urban and peri-urban food

v Regulate the re-location of the food supply

v educational programs of urban agriculture in community spaces

v Food waste reduction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHcnhDtj2CU

How kids see the city of the future

Thanks for your attentionwww.cgee.org.br

aoliveira@cgee.org.br