Brazil and Venezuela:Gradualism versus

Radicalism

Maxwell A. Cameron

UBC

Political Science 332

Leftist Victories 1998-2009

Chavez (1998, 2006)Chavez (1998, 2006) Lula (2002, 2006)Lula (2002, 2006) Kirchner (2003)Kirchner (2003) Vasquez (2004)Vasquez (2004) Morales (2005, 2009)Morales (2005, 2009) Bachelet (2006)Bachelet (2006) Ortega (2006)Ortega (2006) Correa (2006)Correa (2006) Lugo (2007)Lugo (2007) Kirchner (2007)Kirchner (2007) Funes (2009)Funes (2009) Mujica (2009)Mujica (2009)

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Alternative Models for the Left

• Brazil under Lula

• Venezuela under Chavez

• pragmatic, cautious, seeking leadership on world stage– Lula comes

from a trade union background

• radical, unpredictable, confrontation seeking with the US– Chavez

comes from a military background

Are they in competition?

• Brazil has MERCOSUR, encompassing the southern cone created in 1980s, designed to serve as an alternative to NAFTA or negotiation platform with other regions

• Venezuela has ALBA (the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), created to reinforce the alliances between Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and various Caribbean states, as a more radical alternative to the FTAA, Summits, OAS, etc.

or alliance?

• Banco del Sur, Telesur• UNASUR• Honduras: role of Brazilian Embassy,

support of Chavez for Zelaya• OAS and new “Community” formed in

Cancun

Gradualism vs. Revolution

• Skidmore and Smith say Brazil is the “land of the future”… they forgot the punch line: “and always will be.”

• Venezuela is the land of perpetual revolution. And, of course: “plus ca change plus la meme chose.”

Brazil

• Pop. 200 million • Approx. size of US

(3 million sq. miles)• Ethnicity: mix of

white; mulatto; black; and indigenous

• Literacy 89%• GNP $2 trillion (no. 9

in world)• Per capita $10,300• Gini index 0.57

Brazil has been called Belindia (Belgium within India)

• Unequal division of income and wealth• Advanced sectors & huge underdeveloped areas

– Space program: manufactures & launches satellites, jets

• Embraer, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world

– Also extreme poverty

Despite Extremes, a History of Gradualism

• Partly due to colonial experience: – Portuguese rulers found no highly

developed native civilization, nor fabulous wealth

• Independence in 1822 did not involve large-scale conflict

Gradual Shift to Republic

• First regime a constitutional monarchy, not a republic – Dom Pedro I (1822-1831) - called for

constituent assembly, then imposed a “mixed constitution” with some liberal guarantees.

– Dom Pedro II (1840-1889) - War with Paraguay

Gradual Abolition of Slavery

• At independence half the population of 4 million were slaves– 1871 law of the free womb– 1885 freed older slaves– 1888 golden law: final abolition

Collapse of Republic• First republic (1889-1930) - oligarchic state

– Suffrage restricted to literate adult males (voters around 4-6 percent of population)

– The “politics of governors” at the national level (twenty states in a federation)

– Coronelismo (rule of rural bosses, or colonels) at local level

• Crisis after World War I due to elite power struggles

• Crash of 1929 hits Brazil hard

Getulio Vargas and ‘Lite’ Fascism

• October 1930 coup led to Vargas’ Estado Novo

• Revoked constitutional guarantees in 1935• 1937 inaugurates a new authoritarian

constitution• Corporatist regime

– Incorporation of labour– Period of ISI

• Vargas deposed in 1945• Vargas returns (1950-54) under Second

Republic (1946-1964) on PTB ticket• 1954 commits suicide

Military Rule: BA ‘Lite’• Brazilian generals take power in 1964, act against

Goulart, Vargas’ former minister of labour.• Collegial and institutional system• Threat of revolution low, level of repression

moderate• Elections at state level continue• Economic miracle: 1968-1974: 10% growth• But also international debt (Brazil not oil exporter)• Rise of militant labor in late 1970s:

– Emergence of Worker’s Party (PT) under Lula

• Gradual decompression or liberalization

Gradual Democratization

• Campaign for “Directas ja!”

• Tancredo Neves, of main opposition party PMDB, elected 1985, then dies.

• Sarney replaces Neves (1985-90)

• Collor (1990-92): corruption and impeachment

• Franco (1992-1995)

• Cardoso (1995-2002) - PMDB

• Lula (elected 2002, re-elected 2006) - PT

Lula’s PT in power

• Continuity and change• PT enjoys partisan support of 1 in 4 voters: a

relatively well organized party• Idea of doing politics differently: Porto Alegre model

of participatory budgeting• Combined with the realism of machine politics• Corruption scandal of 2005 did not affect Lula• Social policies: Conditional cash transfer (Bolsa

Familia) benefit millions

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Venezuela• Pop. 26 million• Approx. 2 x Calif• Ethnicity: Mestizo• Literacy: 93%• GDP: 355 b• Per capita $13k• Gini index 0.48

Colonial Legacies

• Like Brazil, no great pre-Colombian civilizations or natural resources

• Gradually extended control over diverse, scattered indigenous groups

• No sedentary peasantry develops

Yet Violent Independence Struggle

• Bourbon reforms empower Caracas, which leads struggle for independence throughout region

• Declaration of patria bobo in 1811• Leadership of Bolivar• “frightful levels of physical and economic

devastation” (Skidmore & Smith, p. 222)• To win support from blacks, slavery abolished• Yet no major social revolution

Volatile Republic• Political rule of caudillos, coffee growers, and

ranchers• Civil war (or federalist war) in mid 19th century• And intervention

– Gunboat diplomacy at end of 19th and early 20th century. Roosevelt Corollary to Monroe Doctrine (Skidmore & Smith p. 225)

• Juan Vicente Gomez rules (1908-1935)– Venezuela discovers oil– 1929 Venezuela world’s largest oil exporter– Becomes a petro-state: political system shaped by dependence on oil (Skidmore & Smith, p. 227).

Coups and Counter-Coups

• After Gomez’s death, Accion Democratic (AD) emerges under Romulo Betancourt.

• Military governs until 1945• October 1945 coup and alliance of AD and

COPEI and another party (trienio)• Elections in 1947 won by AD (Romulo Gallegos) • 1948 coup by Marcos Perez Jimenez - brutal

dictator• Rigged elections in 1958, leads to ouster

Stability Under the Pact of Punto Fijo

• Power sharing among major parties• Called “partyarchy” by critics• Economic moderation• Support for US in Cold War• Betancourt linked to Alliance for Progress• 1974 Carlos Andres Perez• OPEC and wind-fall gains

Dramatic Breakdown of Punto Fijo Pact

• CAP elected in 1989, “gran viraje”

• Caracazo

• Coup attempts in 1992

• Impeachment of CAP in 1993 for embezzling $17m.

• Constitutional reforms

fail under Caldera

Chavez’s Bolivarian ‘Revolution’• 1998 rise of Chavez and MVR

• Constituent Assembly and 1999 constitution

• 2002 coup attempt

• 2004 survives recall

• Re-elected in 2006

• Shifts further left in 2007

• Referendum in 2009

Latin America’s Two Lefts?• Lula vs. Chavez: Gradual vs. Radical• Reflect the countries in which they emerge

– Brazil has tradition of gradualism– Venezuela has tradition of radicalism

• These differences reveal themselves in recurrent patterns – Independence (constitutional monarchy vs.

caudillismo)– Relationship between the military and parties (Estado

Novo vs. Gomez dictatorship)– Gradual democratization vs. dependence on oil and

political pacts– Left parties vs. movements