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All details given in good faith but without guarantee Deep Sea Tankers +44 (0)20 7535 2626 Dry Cargo Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2666 Container Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2867 Weekly Chartering Report Braemar Seascope Thursday, 27 September 2012 Market Indicator Wet* 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) 260,000 NHC AG/EAST TD3 -3,500 -6,500 12,000 8,000 130,000 NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 2,500 3,500 13,500 11,500 80,000 NHC UK/CONT TD7 3,500 3,000 8,000 12,000 55,000 CLN AG/JAPAN TC5 9,000 9,500 6,000 5,500 37,000 CLN CONT/USAC TC2 13,000 5,500 10,000 11,500 38,000 CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 5,000 3,500 8,500 10,500 * All rates based on benchmark Baltic Exchange speed and consumption figures Dry 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg BDI 752 761 911 1,549 BCI 1,549 1,154 1,423 2,237 BPI 426 832 1,015 1,749 BSI 844 892 962 1,377 Container 24-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg B O X i 55.18 56.10 56.28 86.13 Financial 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 110.00 112.88 112.25 110.65 IFO 380 ROTT US$/tonne 626.50 644.55 654.38 618.32 YEN/US$ 77.78 78.68 79.37 79.70 WON/US$ 1,121 1,132 1,133 1,107 US$/EURO 1.29 1.24 1.28 1.39

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Page 1: Braemar Seascope Containerfiles.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/0vbkwB5MWe/Chartering Repo… · Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 27/09/2012 It is the same story in West

All details given in good faith but without guarantee Deep Sea Tankers +44 (0)20 7535 2626 Dry Cargo Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2666 Container Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2867

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Braemar Seascope Thursday, 27 September 2012

Market Indicator Wet* 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y )

260,000 NHC AG/EAST TD3 -3,500 -6,500 12,000 8,000

130,000 NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 2,500 3,500 13,500 11,500

80,000 NHC UK/CONT TD7 3,500 3,000 8,000 12,000

55,000 CLN AG/JAPAN TC5 9,000 9,500 6,000 5,500

37,000 CLN CONT/USAC TC2 13,000 5,500 10,000 11,500

38,000 CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 5,000 3,500 8,500 10,500

* All rates based on benchmark Baltic Exchange speed and consumption f igures

Dry 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

BDI 752 761 911 1,549

BCI 1,549 1,154 1,423 2,237

BPI 426 832 1,015 1,749

BSI 844 892 962 1,377

Container 24-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

B O X i 55.18 56.10 56.28 86.13

Financial 26-Sep-12 Aug Avg Avg YTD 2011 Avg

BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 110.00 112.88 112.25 110.65

IFO 380 ROTT US$/tonne 626.50 644.55 654.38 618.32

YEN/US$ 77.78 78.68 79.37 79.70

WON/US$ 1,121 1,132 1,133 1,107

US$/EURO 1.29 1.24 1.28 1.39

Page 2: Braemar Seascope Containerfiles.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/0vbkwB5MWe/Chartering Repo… · Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 27/09/2012 It is the same story in West

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 2

27/09/2012

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VLCC There seems to be no rhyme or reason to the VLCC market sometimes. It seems to be operating in reverse; when there was less enquiry the market seemed stronger, now we have plenty of cargoes reported and rates seem to be slipping. It’s a catch-22 situation for owners right now: either fix and encourage others to keep accepting last done or less, or hold off and watch others fix as previously mentioned. At the end of last week, there was a little recovery as charterers ran out of the more competitive eastern controlled relets. However, as dates have advanced, availability has increased and rates softened. Some good news reported at the end of last week was that COSCO was delaying their ten VLCC order at Japanese involved state shipyards due to political tension with Japan. However, the delays will not affect the inevitable vast order of 30 VLCCs planned by China to control their domestic crude oil supplies. West Africa has been quieter this week as major charterers seemed to have fulfilled their October VLCC requirements. Suezmaxes still present a more competitive option comparing to co-freighting on the larger vessels. From Indian charterers this week, we saw IOC re-enter the market for their 20-21 October W Africa/EC India stem, which was initially fixed at US$3.1m on TMT tonnage. Charterers re-fixed the cargo at US$3.4m. The increase in rate can be attributed to the lack of genuine Atlantic tonnage for the laycan, and the fact that owners now have to factor in an additional US$50,000 per port called in Nigeria on account of the recently introduced Nigerian Sea Protection Levy Act. IOC this morning entered the market for W Africa/WC India and the cargo was snapped up by the TMT ship that had failed the 20-21 October cargo at US$2.97m. The Caribbean market has been busy this week, with Reliance completing their October programme and establishing the rate for Caribs/WC India at US$2.85m. There is a genuine lack of Atlantic tonnage for last decade October West Africa cargoes, but due to the softening sentiment in the AG, the eastern ballasters will be looking to West Africa to take any remaining advantage of the positive differential that currently exists between the two regions. The rates in both the Caribbean and West Africa remain steady, but we feel they could be tested in the next few days. We are assessing W Africa/WC India at US$3.0m and W Africa/EC India at US$3.2m. The 30 day availability index shows 50 VLCCs, of which five are over 15 years old, compared to 43 last week. So far, the first decade of October has seen 38 fixtures reported, with 24 for the second decade, giving a total of 62 reported fixtures which is about the halfway stage of the month. The freight rate for 280,000mt AG/USG is ws24.0, down ws3.0 points from last week. With bunker prices at US$648/tonne, up US$3.0/tonne, owners’ earnings are: Round Trip Cape Laden/Suez Ballast US$-15,000/day (US$-11,300/day last week)* The freight rate for 270,000mt is ws36.0, down ws4.0 points from last week, making owners’ earnings: Round Trip Ras Tanura/Ulsan US$0/day (US$5,675/day last week)* *Obviously with slow steaming these daily earnings can be improved.

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD1 280,000 Ras Tanura LOOP ws25.0 ws25.5

TD2 265,000 Ras Tanura Singapore ws36.5 ws38.5

TD3 265,000 Ras Tanura Chiba ws36.5 ws38.0

TD4 260,000 Bonny LOOP ws39.0 ws41.0

TD15 260,000 West Africa China ws39.5 ws40.5

China33%

Korea/Japan21%

Spore/Indo9%

USA16% India

18%

NW Europe3%

VLCC AG Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeIntended Discharge (20 - 26 Sep 2012)

Long East62%

Short East18%

West20%

VLCC AG Monthly Spot Fixtures by VolumeFinal Destination (Aug 2012)

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3

27/09/2012

It is the same story in West Africa with a reasonably static week. Rates sat around ws52.5-ws55.0 for USG and ws55.0 for UKC-Med. While there was a ws57.5 fixed for the latter voyage, it was a short run to Portugal and not anything deeper into the Mediterranean. The market seemed to be teetering on the edge the past couple of weeks, however, and this does not seem to have changed much. Just as it quietens down, charterers are popping up with second decade cargoes, evidently held back to subdue expectations. Those cargoes are now populating the market but the position list will take some time to empty out. Greater numbers of October stems seem to have been ineffectual in creating higher rates and it would appear only prompt cargoes and those with particular requirements will provide owners with the chance to demand them. Moving into autumn, the weather and increased demand may yet make charterers work a bit harder, and there is certainly pressure on the ws52.5 levels we have seen this week. The Mediterranean and Black Sea market was not hugely quiet this week. However, the majority of fixing was being done privately. The Black Sea dates moved into the middle of the second decade, stretching as far out as 15-16. Even with the amount of Black Sea cargoes fixing, rates remained stable at 140kt x ws55.0, as has been the case for about six weeks. Even replacement cargoes are achieving the same rates, expressing the true confidence of owners. Mediterranean cargoes have been few and far between. We saw a Med/USG voyage fix at ws52.5 and a cross-Med cargo was fixed at ws52.5 at the end of last week. The impact of port costs is now being demonstrated, with a Ceyhan cargo fixing a ws7.5 point premium. We are now starting to see some bad weather in and around the Mediterranean, with delays in the West Med prevalent, and planned maintenance at other ports causing delays. If this continues as we would expect in autumn, owners’ confidence will rise and this may put some pressure on rates. With 6-8 Black Sea cargoes left to cover in October, the list looks long enough to cover them all easily. However, any delays in the straits will have an immediate impact on owner sentiment. The weekly quota of AG/East activity was largely accounted for at the beginning of the week, with 130kt x ws65.0 to WC India, 130kt x ws66.0 EC India, and 135kt x ws71.25 to the Far East all fixed in short succession. There has been a distinct lull in east cargoes ever since, although a couple fixed to the Red Sea and Mumbai at undisclosed levels. A lot of the mid-week action was going west, continuing the strong demand in the West for AG cargoes. Unfortunately, after a little lull in west cargoes, the list was showing some length and so rates continued to be stable at ws45.0. This should be the path in the near future – all the ships will try to move across to the West if there is a sniff a dramatic improvement in rates.

Suezmax

USA46%

NW Europe36%

S America9%

India East9%

Suezmax WAFR Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeIntended Discharge (20 - 26 Sep 2012)

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD5 130,000 Bonny Philadelphia ws55.0 ws56.0

TD6 135,000 Novorossiysk Augusta ws57.5 ws57.5

135,000 Mediterranean UK Cont ws55.0 ws55.0

135,000 North Sea US Gulf ws52.5 ws52.5

135,000 Ras Tanura South East Asia ws71.25 ws71.25

W Africa30%

Med/Red Sea23%

AG24%

Black Sea12%

NW Europe3%

S America5%

Carib/EC Mex3%

Suezmax Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeLoad Area (20 - 26 Sep 2012)

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 4

27/09/2012

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Aframax

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the situation remains the same. Enquiry hasn't been sufficient to satisfy the plentiful tonnage available. Consequently, rates have remained at the same levels at 80kt x ws75.0 for a Libya-load cross-Med cargo, and ws77.5 ex-Black Sea. On paper, it appeared two charterers had paid up for Libya cargoes at 80kt x ws77.5, however these extra 2.5 points were to account for the less rewarding short voyages that the vessels were being employed for. 80kt x ws75.0 is very much the conference rate for a standard cross-Med voyage. The only silver lining of this week for owners is that bunkers have come off slightly, therefore having a positive effect on their returns. The Baltic and North Sea Aframax market has seen a good amount of activity this week. Primorsk and Ust-Luga crude stems have, in the most part, been fixed up until the 10th of the month but rates have stagnated at 100kt x ws60.0 for UKC discharge. There has been a slight increase in activity in terms of fuel movement from the Baltic to UKC and, because these movements have been fixed on a much prompter basis, there has been a slight tightening in the tonnage list for very early month positions. That, coupled with a few delays here and there, saw freight rates for fuel oil, albeit on the prompter position, move up to 100kt x ws65.0 generally with one reliable source even reporting a fixture concluded at ws67.5 for UKC. In general, looking at the natural fixing window, the supply and demand factors have not changed in any way. The crude Aframax market remains very much a flat one at 100kt x ws60.0 Baltic/UKC and 80kt x ws85.0 for cross-North Sea. It was an anticlimactic week in the eastern hemisphere. With the hype ahead of holidays in the Far East and China, we were expecting a much busier market that sadly failed to materialise. Fixing volumes from the Red Sea and AG were also lighter than usual, although rates remained stable at about ws115.0 AG/East and ws125.0 for Red Sea/East basis heated cargoes. Fuel oil cargoes have been trading actively on intra-AG markets, with rates estimated at about US$300,000 for cross-AG. In the Far East, charterers are working up to the end of second decade of October, with rates hovering around the high ws90s for Indo/Up and about ws97.5 for Indo/Australia. So, what will next week have in store for us? In view of the present cost of bunker grade fuel oil, owners might be more inclined to enjoy their holiday rather than shave a few more points off last done.

NW Europe46%

Med/Red Sea31%

USA19%

India East4%

Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot FixturesIntended Discharge Area (20 - 26 Sep 2012)

Baltic44%

N.Africa/E Med28%

Carib/EC Mex13%

Black Sea7%

NW Europe6% W Africa

2%

Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot FixturesLoad Area (20 - 26 Sep 2012)

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD7 80,000 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven ws85.0 ws85.0

TD8 80,000 Mina Al Ahmadi Singapore ws115.0 ws116.5

TD9 70,000 Puerto La Cruz Corpus Christi ws90.0 ws90.0

TD14 80,000 Seria Sydney ws97.5 ws98.5

TD17 100,000 Primorsk Wilhelmshaven ws60.0 ws60.0

TD19 80,000 Ceyhan Lavera ws77.0 ws77.0

Page 5: Braemar Seascope Containerfiles.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/0vbkwB5MWe/Chartering Repo… · Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 27/09/2012 It is the same story in West

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 5

27/09/2012

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Su

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ary

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Ja

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Ap

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Ma

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Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

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No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TD3 - 260 - Ras Tanura - Chiba TCE

2010

2011

2012

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TD5 - 130 - Bonny - Philadelphia TCE

2010

2011

2012

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TD7 - 80 - Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven TCE

2010

2011

2012

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TD9 - 70 Puerto La Cruz- Corpus Christi TCE

2010

2011

2012

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 6

27/09/2012

A positive week for MR owners in the Middle East, with TC12 acting as the main driving force pushing the market up. A tight tonnage list combined with a distinct lack of Korean vessels available until 3rd decade October has meant that charterers have had to call upon western and Middle Eastern controlled vessels to take their naphtha cargos to the Far East. The market has firmed ws20.0 points in four days, with 35kt x ws145.0 on subs off 16-17 dates, a good three weeks forward. Elsewhere, cargoes into South Africa have been plentiful, with 35kt x ws190.0 the going rate. This is a market that did not quite reach its potential this week, but looks in good stead to improve further come next week. Nothing fixed AG/UKC but owners are rating it US$1.55m and above. The short haul rates have yet to really spring into action, and some of the fixtures being done could be viewed as a little disappointing based on some of the other long haul rates we have been seeing. Prompt 5th October there are still four or five vessels around and these owners will be hoping to snap up a cross-AG cargo before the end of the week, otherwise they will act as an anchor in a rising market come next Monday morning. All in all, a very positive week, but it needs two or three more inter-regional cargoes to put the market in good stead. Whilst the LR2s have seen a lot of activity this week, it has had little impact on rates. With rates to Japan having been set and maintained from last week at ws95.0, we saw a very slight uptick to ws96.0 by the week’s end. However, given the shorter tonnage lists and activity in the Middle East region, it was an unexpectedly narrow increase. Rates to the West rebounded a little further, with US$2.525m on subs to the UKC, up from US$2.45m at the start of the week. Meanwhile, back haul rates remain in the doldrums, although have recovered slightly from US$450,000 to just under US$500,000 S Korea to Singapore. LR1s have had a very quiet week and rates have slid to reflect this. With many predicting that rates would hold or even recover from ws110.0 fixed last week due to owners’ resistance to these levels, we then saw ws107.5 put on subs. Remaining vessels/owners are still saying they will not play and are pushing to bring rates back to ws115.0, however there always seems to be someone willing to break ranks...

CP

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hart

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Clean Products - East

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

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Ap

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Ma

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Ju

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Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oc

t

No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TC1 - 75 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE

2010

2011

2012

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

US

$/D

ay

TC5 - 55 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE

2010

2011

2012

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TC1 75,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws95.0 ws96.0

TC5 55,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws112.5 ws114.5

TC4 30,000 Singapore Chiba ws130.0 ws129.5

TC12 35,000 WC India Japan ws136.0 ws130.5

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 7

27/09/2012

CP

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Clean Products - West

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Ja

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Fe

b

Ma

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Ap

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Ma

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Ju

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Ju

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Au

g

Se

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No

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Dec

US

$/D

ay

TC2 - 37 - Rotterdam - New York TCE

2010

2011

2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

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Ju

n

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oc

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No

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Dec

US

$/D

ay

TC3 - 38 - Aruba - New York TCE

2010

2011

2012

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TC2 37,000 Rotterdam New York ws135.0 ws146.0

TC3 38,000 Aruba New York ws130.0 ws113.0

TC6 30,000 Skikda Lavera ws160.0 ws156.0

There seems to be no rhyme or reason to the VLCC market sometimes. It seems to be operating in reverse; when there was less enquiry the market seemed stronger, now we have plenty of cargoes reported and rates seem to be slipping. It’s a catch-22 situation for owners right now: either fix and encourage others to keep accepting last done or less, or hold off and watch others fix as previously mentioned. At the end of last week, there was a little recovery as charterers ran out of the more competitive eastern controlled relets. However, as dates have advanced, availability has increased and rates softened. Some good news reported at the end of last week was that COSCO was delaying their ten VLCC order at Japanese involved state shipyards due to political tension with Japan. However, the delays will not affect the inevitable vast order of 30 VLCCs planned by China to control their domestic crude oil supplies. The Mediterranean market continued this week with good activity and tonnage evenly balanced, with rates hovering around the ws157.5 and ws160.0 level. The old differential of plus ws10.0 for Black Sea load is returning after its summer absence. With a slacking in enquiry today, owners were hoping this wasn't marking a change to their fortunes. Back haul business was led ex-USG by refiners with regular stems, versus the more arbitrage-based traders. The arbitrage indeed was firmly closed at week close, but tight tonnage saw replacement fixtures spike up to 38kt x ws85.0 for USG/trans-Atlantic. This arbitrage may continue to suffer, especially if Irving's tank explosion causes a lack of supply into the East Coast. The Caribbean/States market looks to be on the turn upwards from its all too regular ws110.0, with one replacement fixture at ws130.0 reported this morning.

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27/09/2012

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 8

After a strong rise in rates last week, this week was going to be a tough act to follow. A much quieter start resulted in owners beginning to show cracks and lower fixture rates started to appear, more activity steadied. A busier front haul market continues to help support current rates. A slower Monday saw US$7.85/tonne fixed which took a lot of momentum out of the firming rates. A few owners were worried about being caught in a falling market with the charterers taking full advantage of the insecurities by fixing over ten vessels around the US$7.85/tonne level. Since the large influx, we have seen rates steady, ranging from US$7.70/tonne to as high as US$7.90/tonne off normal dates with US$8.00/tonne for a prompt requirement. Despite the high volume of fixing, the market still remains in balance and with Chinese holidays next week, one hopes we can still maintain activity so rates do not slip further. In the Atlantic, the market remains finely balanced. There does seem to be cargo for the prompt ships but not quite enough for the market to keep pushing on further. Brazil/China fixing continues to remain strong as over US$23.0/tonne has been fixed for both early and late October requirements.

Capesize

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-1

2

BC

I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Capesize Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BCI

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27/09/2012

The BPI continued to drop to its lowest level since December 2008 and difficulties continue for Panamax vessels in the Atlantic, with little sign of positive signals in the near future. With the USG and EC S America region being inundated with ballasting tonnage from the Pacific, vessels open in the Continent or Mediterranean region are opting to sit out the current conditions as long as possible, rather than to compete against a foray of ships. Many questions remain with regards to the US grain market during Q4 as Far Eastern buyers dither over the high grain prices and are choosing to delay their purchase decisions in the hope of a reversion of price trends. The East, and most particularly, NoPac markets, held most of the activity as new cargoes came into the market. However, rates were flat and positional with only well positioned vessels able achieve DOP fixtures. A little activity on the short period with the top of the market seen from charterers at close to US$7,000/day for a larger spread, which is becoming increasingly common as owners are having to offer more flexibility in today's market. Indices are continuing to head south, so the end of week is seeing short period closer to US$6,500/day for nice LME-types.

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 9

Panamax

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-1

2

BP

I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Panamax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BPI

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27/09/2012

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 10

The Far East dry bulk market is already preparing for the upcoming Chinese mid-autumn holidays, with a flurry of activity on the spot positions. Rates for Handysizes open in SE Asia are softening as owners look to cover their positions prior to the weekend. There are a number of spot coal and NoPac orders for Supramaxes, however the tonnage list looks well balanced and we also predict this market to soften by the end of the week as Asia slows down. Conversely, the parcel market for October out of Australia looks reasonably busy which may offer some support to local tonnage. The Continent market continues where it left off last week, with renewed vigour and activity, but TCT levels remain steady to strong. Scrap requirements remain positive, fixing around US$18/tonne for a 40k 10% stem. There were reports of grains being fixed to Algeria at the US$20/tonne mark for smaller sizes, showing around US$11,000/day on TCT levels. Owners are rating short trips within the Continent on coal runs at about the US$12,000/day mark, but charterers still feel the market is closer to US$10,000/day. With the amount of Supramaxes narrowing in the coming weeks, this sector will start to feel the benefit of increased rates. However, it is doubtful this will pass onto the smaller sizes due to the large amount opening at the beginning of October, so we expect the present levels to remain. Bauxite cargoes into the Black Sea ex-West Africa are being quoted in the US$4,500-5,000/day APS range, depending on size/particulars. Short duration Handymax cargoes out of North Brazil to the north Continent have been reportedly fixed for in and around US$9,000/day APS levels. This continues to prove a headache to owners with West African openers with a preference to maintain an Atlantic position as they have to incur large losses on the ballast leg in order to remain competitive for the business. In the Supramax range, business loading ex-up river to UKC-Med range with ore has been seeing numbers around US$10,000-11,000/day APS. Front haul levels ex-EC S America with sugar/grains have been quoted respectively by various owners between US$13,000-15,000/day APS for single trips to Singapore/Japan range. Most astonishing of all this week, however, is news of a Handymax fixture ex-West Africa to China with a time charter equivalent of around US$8,500/day APS with ore. It is understood that the owners were keen to fix her back to the Far East, but in doing so have driven the same charterers to expect similar levels from others. It has been a very quiet week for the Indian Ocean/AG market. There have been limited enquiries on AG/India limestone business. Iron ore trips ex-Iran to China have been reported as being concluded at US$9,500/day levels for vessels opening in the AG. Only a handful of prompt Supramax RBCT/India coal cargoes are in the market, with freight rates hovering around the US$18/tonne mark. There have been no reported period fixtures in the area.

Handy/Handymax/Supramax

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-10

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-12

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2

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I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Supramax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BSI

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 11

27/09/2012

Drop in Chinese oil demand Demand for oil in China during the month of August fell 1.5% y-o-y. This equates to an average of 8.95m bpd. Demand also dropped in June by 1.9%. Demand in August was the lowest since September 2011. It is expected that the effect of the government’s recent economic stimulus should see demand start to rise again in the coming months. Meanwhile, as domestic refineries finish maintenance and oil prices rise, the output of the refineries is expected to grow. The demand drop in June was the first since a 2% decrease in the first quarter of 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

China's August coal stocks up 69% y-o-y at ports, mines and power plants China's coal stocks increased 69% y-o-y in August. This includes 43.18m tonnes at major ports (up 54.6% y-o-y) and 84.64m tonnes at major power plants (up 37.2% y-o-y). The stocks were adequate for 24 days of burn at the plants, up nine days y-o-y. China mined 307m tonnes of crude coal in August, down 2.5% y-o-y. It mined 2.57 billion tonnes over January-August, up 4.4% y-o-y. Over January-August, China was a net coal importer by 178.5m tonnes, with imports at 185.4 m tonnes (up 46.3% y-o-y), and exports at 6.92m tonnes (down 36.6% y-o-y).

Baoshan suspends production at steel plant Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd, China’s largest listed steelmaker, has announced its Luojing factory has suspended production partly due to lacklustre demand. The factory has an annual capacity of 3m tonnes of steel products.

Easing demand for Australian coal exports Thermal and coking coal exports through the port of Newcastle, NSW, fell 14% to 2.52m tonnes from 10-17 September. From September 1-24, Newcastle port has shipped 9m tonnes of coal and has about one remaining week to reach the port authority's export forecast for the month of 10.9m tonnes. 23 ships loaded coal exports at the port last week, compared with 28 vessels in the previous week. Ships waited an average of seven days in Newcastle's offshore queue before entering the port last week, against a queuing time of nearly 12 days a week earlier. Queensland's Dalrymple Bay coal terminal (DBCT) recently reported that there were only six ships waiting in its offshore queue to load coal, which was significantly down on its queue of 19 ships on August 31. There was plenty of coal stocked at DBCT for arriving ships, about 1m tonnes, said the terminal's operator DBCT Management in its latest report.

Esperance potential A study by the Yilgarn Iron Producers Association has stated that a ‘modestly priced’ upgrade to the port of Esperance, on the south coast of West Australia, is needed to fully utilise the Yilgarn region’s resources. The Yilgarn is centred 150km north east of Kalgoorlie and has estimated reserves of about 10 billion tonnes of magnetite and a billion of hematite. The first stage should cater for the export of between 10m and 15m tonnes a year of Direct Shipping Ore while “incremental” rail upgrades are made. A stage two upgrade, with the construction of a second berth, could boost the total port potential above 50m tonnes per year.

Asia

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ustr

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Mark

et N

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Asia / Australia News

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Conta

iner

Chart

ering

27/09/2012

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 12

The container market continued to move sideways this week with the majority of fixtures being concluded in line with last done, resulting in a marginal drop of 0.02 points on our BOXi index. Although the number of fixtures concluded remains reasonable, there was a noticeable change in pace toward the end of the week. With the upcoming holidays in China likely to take their toll on activity, there is a risk that we have already put the most active days of the chartering market behind us for 2012. Demand for tonnage in the Atlantic remains soft compared to the Far East market, with the exception of geared feeders in the USG. Likewise, there is a lack of geared feeder tonnage in the Mediterranean and earnings are very slightly managing to outperform the Far East, with one 1,600teu vessel reportedly fixing for 4-7 months at US$6,400/day. The Panamax sector continues to bear the brunt of the downward pressure, with rates below the US$10,000/day watermark for flexible period beginning to become commonplace. Subsequently, this pressure is also beginning to weigh heavy on the fortunes of the 2,800-3,500teu sector which has not only begun to lose ground but is also suffering from increasing levels of idle tonnage. The number of super Post Panamax vessels expected to face redelivery in the next few months is also increasing, and it remains to be seen exactly how they will fit into a market where operators for the most part are starting to think of their winter schedule programmes.

Containers

0

40

80

120

160

200

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct-

08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-

12

The Box Index B O X i

Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Gear Speed Knots Index + / -510/285 Gearless 15.5 3.61 ► 0.00

700/440 Gearless 17.5 4.00 ► 0.00

750/415 Geared 16.0 4.71 ► 0.00

1000/650 Geared 17.5 5.05 ► 0.00

1100/715 Geared 20.0 6.00 ► 0.00

1350/925 Geared 20.0 4.19 ► 0.00

1600/1150 Gearless 18.0 5.19 ► 0.00

1700/1125 Geared 19.5 4.73 ► 0.00

1740/1300 Geared 20.5 4.88 ► 0.00

2000/1600 Geared 21.0 1.93 ► 0.00

2500/1900 Geared 22.0 3.41 ► 0.00

2800/2000 Gearless 22.0 3.02 ▼ 0.02

3500/2500 Gearless 23.0 2.34 ► 0.00

4250/2800 Gearless 24.0 2.14 ► 0.00

Index Total 55.18 ▼ 0.02