bowen and galilee basins non–resident population ... · the bowen basin had a non-resident...

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

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© The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2018

Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024

Introduction

With the use of fly-in/fly-out and drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) work practices now common, many resource regions have a large population of non-resident workers who live in the area only while on-shift. This non-resident population is not included in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official resident population estimates for these areas.

To bridge this information gap, Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2018 to 2024 provides projected numbers of non-resident workers on-shift for local government areas (LGAs) in the Bowen and Galilee Basin regions (Figure 1). The report presents four projection series for the region, based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects. Data tables to supplement the report are available on the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) website (www.qgso.qld.gov.au). 1

Key points

Key points of this report include:

• The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was 15,150 persons in June 2017, up from 13,560 persons in June 2016. This growth was largely due to expanded coal production workforces, and halted the decline that occurred over the preceding four years.

• Four projection series are presented for the Bowen Basin. The Series A projection expects that the region’s non-resident population will decline slowly from 2017, reaching 13,790 persons by 2024. This projection mainly reflects changes to the production workforces of existing operations, as well as construction workforces of projects that are under way.

• By contrast, the Series B, C and D projections for the Bowen Basin, which include consideration of proposed mine, port and rail projects in the development pipeline, foresee overall growth in the region’s non-resident population from 2018 to 2024. This growth will be largely influenced by the presence of temporary construction workforces.

• Series B projects the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population to increase to 16,510 persons by 2022, before falling to 15,620 persons in 2024. This series include all projects that are approved, but have yet to reach financial close.

• The Series C projection, which includes projects that have lodged an environmental impact statement (EIS) but are yet to receive approval, anticipates that the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population will increase to 16,760 persons by 2021. The Series D projection, which includes projects in preliminary planning stages, would see the region’s non-resident population grow to 17,310 persons by 2022.

• The LGA of Isaac (R) will continue to have the largest share of the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population. Under Series A, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will grow to 10,630 persons in June 2018, before declining gradually to reach 9,720 persons by 2024. The Series B, C and D projections anticipate continued growth beyond 2018, peaking in 2022 at 11,760 persons, 11,900 persons and 12,550 persons respectively.

• The Series B projection for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) expects the non-resident population to increase to a peak of 1,170 persons by June 2019, before declining to 400 persons by June 2024. Most of this growth will arise from temporary construction workforces for rail and port components of the Carmichael and Galilee Basin coal projects.

• The non-resident population of Barcaldine (R) could increase to 2,070 persons in 2024 under the Series B projection, should all proposed coal mine and rail projects proceed as planned.

1 Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) comprises the statistical areas level 2 (SA2s) of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen Shire.

Figure 1 Bowen and Galilee Basins

In this publication, the Bowen Basin is defined as the LGAs of Banana (S), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)1. The Galilee Basin comprises the LGA of Barcaldine (R).

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2

Bowen and Galilee Basins – future influences

The Bowen Basin is Queensland’s major coal mining precinct, containing 40 active coal mining operations and two metalliferous mines as of December 2017 (Table 7, pages 10–11). The region had a non-resident population of 15,150 persons in June 2017, consisting largely of workers involved in resource industry production, maintenance and construction. This population grew substantially in 2016–17, reversing the decline that occurred over the preceding four years. Much of this increase was due to expanded production workforces, as operators took advantage of higher coal prices (QGSO, 2017).

Three new coal projects were under construction in the Bowen Basin in December 2017. The Caval Ridge Southern Circuit Project (BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA)), which will convey coal from Peak Downs mine to Caval Ridge mine for processing, was approved and commenced construction in 2017. The project is expected to become operational in 2019 (BHP, 2017). Construction of coal handling, processing and transport infrastructure for the greenfield Byerwen Coal Project (Byerwen Coal Pty Ltd) was well advanced by late 2017, with first coal from the mine anticipated in 2018 (CIMIC, 2017). The Meteor Downs South Project moved to financial close in July 2017 and immediately commenced construction. The mine, which is a joint venture of Sojitz and U&D Mining, is expected to start production in 2018 (Sojitz/U&D Mining, 2017).

One Bowen Basin coal mine (Cook) ceased operations and was placed in care and maintenance in May 2017. The former longwall mine was subsequently sold to Bounty Mining in December 2017. Production is expected to resume in early 2018, using a more flexible bord and pillar mining method (Bounty Mining Limited, 2017).

The following proposed resource industry projects moved through the approvals pipeline in 2017:

• The Boundary Hill South Project (Batchfire Resources) received all approvals and was granted a mining lease in early 2018. This project will extend the life of the existing Callide mine complex to 2043 (Queensland Government, 2018).

• The Rolleston Coal Expansion Project, which would extend the life of the Rolleston open cut mine to beyond 2040, has now received all approvals from the Queensland and Commonwealth Governments (Glencore, 2017a). Expressions of interest for purchasing the mine are under consideration, with a decision expected by mid-2018 (Glencore, 2017b).

• The Hillalong Coal Project (Queensland Coal Exploration) gained environmental approval from the Australian Government in August 2017, and is seeking final approvals and grant of mining lease (DoEE, 2017).

• The Dysart East Project (Bengal Coal Company), which does not require an environmental impact statement (EIS), received its regional interests development approval in November 2017 (DILGP, 2017).

• Five solar projects in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) and Central Highlands (R) were approved or under construction at the end of 2017 (Table 7, pages 10–11).

• Adani’s Carmichael Coal Project, comprising mine, rail and port components, has now received all approvals and is proceeding towards financial close. The company has announced its intention to develop and operate the mine on an owner/operator basis (Adani Australia, 2017).

• GVK Hancock was granted an environmental authority for the Kevin’s Corner coal mine in August 2017 (GVK Hancock Coal, 2017a), and continues to work towards obtaining the regulatory approvals for Kevin’s Corner and the Alpha Coal mine (GVK Hancock Coal, 2017b).

Projection methodology

QGSO’s 2018 to 2024 non–resident population projection methodology comprises four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations in the Bowen and Galilee Basins. Each series estimates the non-resident population that would be present in each LGA at 30 June of each year to 2024, should the listed operations and projects proceed according to advised timeframes and workforce numbers.

The four projection series represent the estimated non-resident workforces of existing operations and future projects. Projects are categorised according to their standing in the approvals pipeline, including stages of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process2, and progress towards achieving financial close.

• Series A projection is based on the number of non-resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations at June 2017. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached financial close).

• Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that are approved but have yet to reach financial close).

2 The projections also include some projects where an EIS is not or may not be mandatory. Such projects are still subject to other statutory approvals.



3

• Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).

• Series D projection includes the Series A, B and C projections, plus projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an initial advice statement (IAS), as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).

Where financial close for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely, or where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing, the project is designated as Category E and is not included in any of the four projection series. Other projects that are dependent on Category E projects in order to commence are also designated as Category E, and are excluded from consideration in the projections.

Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed and, as such, the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any of the projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome. See caveats on page 12 of this report for further details.

A full list of existing operations and projects included in each category is available in Table 7 (pages 10–11), and a map of selected projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Selected projects(a), Bowen and Galilee Basins

(a) Includes coal and solar projects, but does not include rail, pipeline, gas field and other infrastructure projects. Project locations shown in map are indicative only. Project status is current as at December 2017. See Table 7 (pages 10–11) for a full list of existing operations and projects by project category.

Source: QGSO, 2017



4

Projected non-resident population, Bowen Basin

The Bowen Basin had a non-resident population of 15,150 persons in June 2017, up from 13,560 persons in June 2016 (QGSO, 2017). This growth, which was largely due to expanded coal production workforces, halted the decline that occurred over the preceding four years (Figure 3).

Four projection series are presented for the Bowen Basin (Table 1). According to the Series A projection, the region’s non-resident population will decline slowly from 2017, reaching 13,790 persons by June 2024. This series largely reflects changes to the non–resident production workforces of existing operations, including mines that will reach the end of their economic life during this period. Series A also takes into account the temporary construction workforces of several projects currently under way in the region.

The Series B, C and D projections foresee overall growth in the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population from 2018 to 2024. Series B projects an increase to 16,510 persons in June 2022, before decreasing to 15,620 persons in 2024. While this series includes changes to the production workforces of existing operations in the region, much of the projected growth in the non-resident population reflects the impact of large construction workforces for projects that have been approved but are yet to reach financial close (Table 7, pages 10–11). These projects include the construction of rail and port components of Galilee Basin mines, which will take place in Bowen Basin LGAs rather than in the Galilee Basin.

The Series C projection takes into account all Series B projects, plus the influence of two coal projects that have lodged an EIS. Series C anticipates the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population will increase to 16,760 persons by 2021, before falling back to 15,750 persons in 2024. The Series D projection, which includes a further three coal projects in preliminary planning stages, would see the region’s non-resident population grow to 17,310 persons by 2022, then decline slightly to 16,720 persons in 2024.

Although the Series B, C and D projections indicate growth to 2024, the size of the region’s non-resident population would remain below levels previously experienced during the resources boom of 2011–2013.

Figure 3 Past and projected non-resident population, Bowen Basin

Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2017; QGSO projections, 2018 to 2024

Table 1 Projected non-resident population, Bowen Basin

Projection series

Number of non-resident workers on-shift at 30 June

Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 15,150 14,970 14,540 14,290 14,040 13,870 13,830 13,790

Series B 15,150 15,300 16,160 15,810 16,490 16,510 15,770 15,620

Series C 15,150 15,310 16,220 16,010 16,760 16,650 15,900 15,750

Series D 15,150 15,310 16,310 16,340 17,110 17,310 16,960 16,720

Figures in all tables have been rounded to the nearest 10; see Notes at end of report for details.

Source: QGSO estimates, 2017; QGSO projections, 2018 to 2024

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons

Non-resident workers on-shift Series A Series B Series C Series D

Estimated Projected



5

Banana (S)

The LGA of Banana (S) contained two active coal mining operations, a gold mine and a coal–fired power station in December 2017. The area also held one coal seam gas (CSG) operation, which produced gas for export through Gladstone (Table 7, pages 10–11).

Banana (S) had a non-resident population of 710 persons in June 2017, up slightly from 670 persons in the preceding year (QGSO, 2017). The LGA’s non-resident population briefly reached a peak of 2,750 persons in June 2013, due largely to the presence of temporary workforces for CSG pipeline and gas field construction in the area at that time (Figure 4).

Just one projection series is presented for Banana (S) (Table 2). According to Series A, the non-resident population will increase slightly to 730 persons in 2018, and remain at around this level to 2024. This series largely reflects the non-resident workforces associated with existing mining and gas operations, as well as temporary maintenance workers for the Callide power station. It also includes consideration of the Boundary Hill South project, which is an extension of the existing Callide mine.

There are no Series B, Series C or Series D projections for Banana (S), as no future projects are currently listed in these categories. The Series A projection for Banana (S) does not include consideration of the Baralaba South or Nathan Dam and Pipeline projects, which are classified as Category E, or potential resumption of suspended operations at Baralaba mine (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).

Figure 4 Past and projected non-resident population, Banana (S)


Table 2 Projected non-resident population, Banana (S)

Projection series(a)


Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 710 730 720 730 730 730 730 730

(a) There are no Series B, Series C or Series D projections for Banana (S).


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons

Non-resident workers on-shift Series A

Estimated Projected



6

Central Highlands (R)

At the end of December 2017, 10 coal mining operations were active in the LGA of Central Highlands (R). Three resource projects – the Meteor Downs South coal project and two solar projects – had reached financial close and were under construction (Table 7, pages 10–11).

Central Highlands (R) had a non-resident population of 3,360 persons in June 2017, up from 3,150 persons in June 2016 (Figure 5). This growth, which was due to expanded coal production activity, was offset by job losses that followed the suspension of operations at Cook mine (QGSO, 2017).

Two projection series are presented for Central Highlands (R) (Table 3). Series A anticipates that the non-resident population will fall to 3,230 persons in 2018 and continue to decline gradually, before settling at 3,000 persons from 2022 to 2024. This series takes into account the non-resident workforces of existing coal operations in the LGA, as well as the construction and production workforces of the Meteor Downs South coal project, Emerald Solar Park and Lilyvale Solar Farm.

According to Series B, the non-resident population of Central Highlands (R) will fluctuate over the projections period, increasing slightly to 3,390 persons in June 2018 and declining to 3,070 persons in 2022, before returning to 3,360 persons in 2024. This series factors in the non–resident population impacts of projects that have been approved but are yet to reach financial close, including four coal projects (Bluff Coal, Rolleston Coal Expansion, Taroborah and Washpool Coal) as well as elements of the GLNG Gas Field Development Project.

There are no Series C or Series D projections for Central Highlands (R), as there are no future projects listed in these categories. The Series A and Series B projections do not take into account a potential recommencement of operations at Cook mine, or of projects classed as Category E (the Galilee Basin Transmission Project, along with the Minyango and Springsure Creek coal projects) (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).

Figure 5 Past and projected non-resident population, Central Highlands (R)


Table 3 Projected non-resident population, Central Highlands (R)



Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 3,360 3,230 3,110 3,110 3,050 3,000 3,000 3,000

Series B 3,360 3,390 3,160 3,230 3,140 3,070 3,200 3,360

(a) There are no Series C or Series D projections for Central Highlands (R).


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons

Non-resident workers on-shift Series A Series B

Estimated Projected



7

Isaac (R)

The LGA of Isaac (R) is the location of a sizeable proportion of all resource industry activity in the Bowen Basin, with 25 coal operations and four other resource operations active at December 2017. One mining project (Byerwen Coal) and a coal infrastructure project (Caval Ridge Southern Circuit Project) were under construction (Table 7, pages 10–11).

Isaac (R) had a non-resident population of 10,580 persons in June 2017, up from 9,450 persons in June 2016 (QGSO, 2017). This growth, which was sparked by an increase in coal production activity following higher prices, halted the downward trend experienced since June 2012, when the LGA’s non-resident population peaked at 17,130 persons (Figure 6).

Four projection series are presented for Isaac (R) (Table 4). Series A projects the non-resident population will grow to 10,630 persons in June 2018, before declining each year to reach 9,720 persons by 2024. This series takes into account the non-resident workforces of all active resource operations and projects under construction.

Series B, C and D expect that the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will continue to grow beyond 2018, peaking in 2022. The Series B projection anticipates that the non-resident population will reach 11,760 persons in June 2022, then remain above 11,000 persons over the period to 2024. This series factors in the construction and production workforces of six coal projects (including Carmichael and Red Hill) and three rail projects, which have received all necessary approvals but are yet to reach financial close.

The Series C projection takes account of the additional impacts of two coal projects that have lodged an EIS but have yet to receive approval. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will follow a similar trajectory to Series B, peaking at 11,900 persons in 2022, before falling to 11,260 persons in 2024. The Series D projection, which includes a further three coal projects in the early stages of planning, expects the non-resident population to grow to more than 12,000 persons, reaching 12,550 persons in 2022, then declining to 12,230 persons in 2024.

None of the projection series for Isaac (R) include consideration of the Arrow Bowen Pipeline, Bowen Gas Project, China Stone, Codrilla or Ellensfield, which are classified as Category E (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).

Figure 6 Past and projected non-resident population, Isaac (R)


Table 4 Projected non-resident population, Isaac (R)

Projection series


Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 10,580 10,630 10,330 10,110 9,920 9,790 9,760 9,720

Series B 10,580 10,730 11,110 10,820 11,580 11,760 11,170 11,130

Series C 10,580 10,740 11,170 11,020 11,860 11,900 11,310 11,260

Series D 10,580 10,740 11,250 11,350 12,200 12,550 12,370 12,230


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons

Non-resident workers on-shift Series A Series B Series C Series D

Estimated Projected



8

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

In December 2017, there were five existing resource operations in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), including three active coal mining operations, a gold mine, and the Port of Abbot Point (Table 7, pages 10–11). Three solar projects – Collinsville Solar Power Station, Daydream and Hayman Solar Farms, and Whitsunday and Hamilton Solar Farms – were also under construction.

The area had a non-resident population of 490 persons in June 2017, up from 300 persons in June 2016 (Figure 7). This increase was due to the presence of solar project construction workers and post–cyclone reconstruction workers, and the return to full production at Collinsville mine (QGSO, 2017).

Two projection series are presented for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) (Table 5). According to the Series A projection, the LGA’s non-resident population will decline to 380 persons in June 2018 as current construction activity winds down, then settle at around 340 to 350 persons from 2020 to 2024. This series mainly takes into account changes to the ongoing production workforces of existing resource operations in the area.

Substantially higher growth is predicted under the Series B projection, which largely reflects the impact of FIFO/DIDO construction workforces for rail and port components of the Carmichael project and other Galilee Basin projects. The Series B projection anticipates the LGA’s non-resident population to increase to a peak of 1,170 persons by June 2019 and remain at above 1,000 persons in 2020 and 2021, before declining to reach 400 persons by June 2024. Given the temporary nature of construction workforces and the largely resident operational workforces of projects in Category B, their impact on the non-resident population of Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) will be short-lived rather than ongoing.

There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), as there are no future projects in these categories.

Figure 7 Past and projected non-resident population, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)


Table 5 Projected non-resident population, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)



Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 490 380 370 340 340 350 350 350

Series B 490 450 1,170 1,040 1,040 950 660 400

(a) There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only).


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons


Estimated Projected



9

Projected non-resident population, Galilee Basin

The Galilee Basin coal measure spans several LGAs, including Barcaldine (R) to the south and the Bowen Basin LGA of Isaac (R)3 to the east (Figure 2). While there are no coal mines currently operating or under construction in the Galilee Basin, several large mines and associated rail projects are planned for the area covered by both LGAs. The following projections refer only to the non-resident population impacts of Galilee Basin mine and rail projects that will occur in Barcaldine (R).

Two projection series are presented for Barcaldine (R). The Series A projection (Table 6) reflects the baseline non-resident population that has been estimated in the area each year since 2010, and which declined to around 20 persons in June 2017 (Figure 8). This small population, consisting largely of FIFO/DIDO workers engaged in exploration and infrastructure development, is not expected to increase substantially prior to commencement of any major project.

The Series B projection, which includes all projects that have an approved EIS but have yet to reach financial close, anticipates that Barcaldine (R)’s non-resident population will increase to 2,070 persons by June 2024 (Table 6). This projected non-resident population would include the construction and production workforces of six projects, including the Alpha Coal mine and rail, Kevin’s Corner, South Galilee Coal, and the China First mine and rail projects.

There are no Series C or Series D projections for Barcaldine (R), as there are no future projects in those categories. None of the projection series for Barcaldine (R) include consideration of the Galilee Basin Transmission Project, which is classified as Category E (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).

Figure 8 Past and projected non-resident population, Barcaldine (R)


Table 6 Projected non-resident population, Barcaldine (R)



Estimated Projected

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Series A 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Series B 20 20 20 250 580 640 960 2,070

(a) There are no Series C or Series D projections for Barcaldine (R).


3 For the purposes of this publication and population projections, the Galilee Basin is defined as Barcaldine (R). Where the population impacts of Galilee Basin projects will occur in Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), they are included in projections for the Bowen Basin.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pers

ons


Estimated Projected



10

Table 7 Resource operations and projects, Bowen and Galilee Basins

Category(a) Project / operation name Company name LGA

Active operations(b)

A Abbot Point Bulk Coal Mundra Port Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Blackwater BMA Central Highlands (R)

A Blair Athol TerraCom Isaac (R)

A Broadmeadow BMA Isaac (R)

A Callide Batchfire Resources Banana (S)

A Callide Power Station CS Energy Banana (S)

A Capcoal Surface Operations Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Carborough Downs Fitzroy Australia Resources Isaac (R)

A Caval Ridge BMA Isaac (R)

A Clermont GS Coal Isaac (R)

A Collinsville Glencore Coal Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Coppabella Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Coppabella Train Loadout Facility Pacific National Isaac (R)

A Cracow Gold Mine Evolution Mining Banana (S)

A Curragh Wesfarmers Resources Central Highlands (R)

A Daunia BMA Isaac (R)

A Dawson Anglo American Banana (S)

A Drake Sonoma Mine Management Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Ensham Ensham Resources Central Highlands (R)

A Foxleigh Middlemount South Isaac (R)

A Goonyella Riverside BMA Isaac (R)

A Grasstree Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Grosvenor Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Hail Creek Rio Tinto Isaac (R)

A Isaac Plains/Isaac Plains East Stanmore Coal Isaac (R)

A Jellinbah East Jellinbah Group Central Highlands (R)

A Jellinbah Plains Jellinbah Group Central Highlands (R)

A Kestrel Rio Tinto Central Highlands (R)

A Lake Vermont Jellinbah Group Isaac (R)

A Meridian SeamGas Project WestSide Corporation Banana (S)

A Middlemount Middlemount Coal Isaac (R)

A Millennium Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Minerva Sojitz Corporation Central Highlands (R)

A Moorvale Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Moranbah Ammonium Nitrate Plant Incitec Pivot Isaac (R)

A Moranbah Gas Project Arrow Energy Isaac (R)

A Moranbah North Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Mt Carlton Gold Mine Evolution Mining Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Nebo Rail Maintenance Facility Pacific National Isaac (R)

A Newlands Eastern Creek Surface Mine Glencore Coal Isaac (R)

A North Goonyella Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Oaky Creek Glencore Coal Central Highlands (R)

A Peak Downs BMA Isaac (R)

A Poitrel BMC Isaac (R)

A Rolleston Glencore Coal Central Highlands (R)

A Saraji BMA Isaac (R)

A Sonoma Sonoma Mine Management Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A South Walker Creek BMC Isaac (R)

A Yarrabee Yancoal Australia Central Highlands (R)



11

Projects

A Boundary Hill South Batchfire Resources Banana (S)

A Byerwen Coal Byerwen Coal Isaac (R)

A Caval Ridge Southern Circuit Project BMA Isaac (R)

A Collinsville Solar Power Station RATCH Australia Corporation Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Daydream and Hayman Solar Farms Edify Energy Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Emerald Solar Park Lighthouse Infrastructure Central Highlands (R)

A Lilyvale Solar Farm Fotowatio Renewable Ventures Central Highlands (R)

A Meteor Downs South U&D Mining Central Highlands (R)

A Whitsunday and Hamilton Solar Farms Edify Energy Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Abbot Point Coal Terminal (T0) Adani Australia Coal Terminal Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Abbot Point Coal Terminal (T3) Hancock Coal Infrastructure Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Abbot Point Growth Gateway North Qld Bulk Ports Corporation Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Alpha Coal – mine GVK Hancock Coal Barcaldine (R)

B Alpha Coal – rail GVK Hancock Coal Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Bluff Coal Project Carabella Resources Central Highlands (R)

B Carmichael Adani Isaac (R)

B Carmichael Rail Network Adani Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B China First – mine Waratah Coal Barcaldine (R)

B China First – rail Waratah Coal Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B Dysart East Coal Bengal Coal Company Isaac (R)

B GLNG Gas Field Development Project GLNG(c) Central Highlands (R)

B Hail Creek Transition Project Rio Tinto Isaac (R)

B Hillalong Coal Queensland Coal Exploration Isaac (R)

B Kevin's Corner Hancock Galilee Barcaldine (R)

B Moranbah South Anglo American Isaac (R)

B Red Hill Mining Lease Project BMA Isaac (R)

B Rolleston Coal Expansion Project Glencore Coal Central Highlands (R)

B South Galilee Coal AMCI Barcaldine (R)

B Taroborah Shenhuo International Group Central Highlands (R)

B Washpool Coal Aquila Resources Central Highlands (R)

C Isaac Plains Underground Project Stanmore Coal Isaac (R)

C Moorlands Project Cuesta Coal Isaac (R)

D New Lenton New Hope Group Isaac (R)

D Olive Downs Project Pembroke Resources Isaac (R)

D Saraji East Mining Lease Project BMA Isaac (R)

E Arrow Bowen Pipeline Arrow Energy Isaac (R)

E Baralaba South Baralaba Coal Company Banana (S)

E Bowen Gas Project Arrow Energy Isaac (R)

E China Stone MacMines Austasia Isaac (R)

E Codrilla Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

E Ellensfield Fitzroy Australia Resources Isaac (R)

E Galilee Basin Transmission Project Powerlink Barcaldine (R), Central Highlands (R)

E Minyango Bounty Mining Central Highlands (R)

E Nathan Dam and Pipeline Project SunWater Banana (S)

E Springsure Creek Springsure Creek Coal Central Highlands (R)

(a) The five categories include active operations, and projects grouped according to their status in the approvals process as at December 2017. See methodology (page 2) and caveats (page 12) for further details.

(b) Operations that are in care and maintenance or that have ceased production are not included in this list or in the projections. These include Baralaba in Banana (S); Cook, Crinum and Gregory in Central Highlands (R); Burton, Newlands Underground and Norwich Park in Isaac (R); and Cows and Jax in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only).

(c) Santos Gladstone LNG (GLNG) is a joint venture between Santos, PETRONAS, Total and KOGAS.

Source: QGSO, 2017



12

Caveats

QGSO’s non–resident population projections provide an estimate of the number of non-resident workers on-shift by LGA. They are based on the on-shift non–resident worker population estimates established in previous years and consider future workforce growth arising from resource industry and infrastructure projects planned for the region, as reported directly by resource companies.

Projections are based on the best available data and advice at the time of preparation. Non-resident populations are projected for the period to 2024 only, as it is considered that the reliability of information regarding future projects diminishes considerably beyond that point. Projected numbers of non-resident workers on-shift presented in this report represent an estimate for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years.

The four projection series represent a range of possible outcomes based on the status of projects in the EIS process at the time of production in December 2017 (see the projection methodology, page 2, for further details). These outcomes are subject to change over time as projects proceed through the approvals process. Projections reflect the cumulative impacts of multiple projects at a given point in time, and changes to any individual project will affect the projected cumulative outcome.

Series D projections include projects that are in the early stages of planning and that have yet to proceed to a published EIS. Workforce data and indicative start dates provided to QGSO for these projects are preliminary company estimates, which may not be publicly available. Both estimated workforce numbers and project timeframes are subject to change during the course of project planning. As such, Series D projections should be regarded as having a higher degree of uncertainty than the other three series.

Category E comprises projects that have completed the approvals process but where financial close has been delayed indefinitely; projects where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing; and other projects that are dependent on the commencement of projects in this category. These projects could not be allocated to a projection series at the time of preparation. Changes in the status of these projects could substantially alter any or all of the possible outcomes represented by the four projection series.

The projections reflect certain assumptions about the likelihood of projects advancing according to advised commencement dates, sequencing of project stages and timing of workforce peaks. Changes to any of these factors can make a significant difference to the cumulative non-resident workforce at a given point in time, particularly during construction phases. Short-term influences such as extreme weather events, industrial action and supply chain delays can all result in changes to project scheduling and to these projections.

QGSO does not advocate any one series as being the most likely or favoured outcome and users should consider the assumptions affecting each potential scenario. Given the volatile nature of the resource sector and the inherent uncertainty about the likelihood of projects proceeding as indicated, these projections should be considered as being indicative of the range of potential outcomes rather than literal accounts of future growth.

Notes

(R) – Regional Council (S) – Shire

Non-resident workers are people who fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) to work and live in the area temporarily while rostered on, and who have their usual place of residence elsewhere. Non-resident workers include FIFO/DIDO mining and gas industry employees and contractors, construction workers and associated sub-contractors. Figures in this report refer to the number of non-resident workers on-shift, or present in the area at a given point in time, and should not be confused with total non–resident workforce numbers.

The population impacts of Galilee Basin projects located in Isaac (R) are included in projections for the Bowen Basin rather than the Galilee Basin. Similarly, most of the rail and port construction and operations activities for the Galilee Basin projects will take place in the Bowen Basin LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), rather than in Barcaldine (R).

Data in this report are derived from surveys conducted by QGSO in 2017 and other sources. The Survey of Accommodation Providers counted the number of non-resident workers on-shift during the last week of June 2017. See the Bowen Basin population report, 2017 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php for further details. The Resource Operations Employment Survey and the Resource Projects Employment Survey gathered workforce information from all resource companies with existing operations or future projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins as at June 2017. A full list of existing operations and projects is available in Table 7 of this report.

The total number of non-resident workers on-shift for the Bowen Basin represents the aggregate non-resident populations of all LGAs in the region. This total may include a small number of non-resident workers in each LGA who live elsewhere within the Bowen Basin.

Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest 10. As a result of rounding, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentages and other calculations are made prior to rounding of figures and discrepancies might therefore exist between these calculations and those that could be derived from the rounded figures.

Data tables to supplement this report are available on-line at http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/index.php.

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/index.php



13

References

Adani Australia (2017) Latest News: Adani will develop and operate the mine on an Owner Operator basis, 18 December 2017 http://www.adaniaustralia.com/

BHP (2017) BHP operational review for the quarter ended 30 September 2017, 18 October 2017 https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2017/171018_bhpoperationalreviewforthequarterended30september2017.pdf?la=en

Bounty Mining Limited (2017) Purchase of Cook Colliery and Minyango Project Completed, 8 December 2017 http://www.bounty.com.au/_Content/Download/109/171208%20Bounty%20Mining%20-%20Cook%20Acquisition%20update.pdf

CIMIC (2017) CIMIC’S Sedgman wins $100M in coal contracts in Queensland, 12 December 2017 https://www.cimic.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/35718/1751404.pdf

Department of Environment and Energy (DoEE) (2017) Approval for Hillalong Coal Mine and Associated Infrastructure Project, Bowen Basin, Queensland, 30 August 2017 http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/_entity/annotation/27fc7815-a78e-e711-aec9-005056ba00a7/a71d58ad-4cba-48b6-8dab-f3091fc31cd5?t=1510293062694

Department of Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning (DILGP) (2017) Decision Notice – RPI17-004 Bengal Coal Limited – Dysart East Coal Mine, 13 November 2017 http://betterplanning.qld.gov.au/resources/applications/rpi-17-004/decision-notice.pdf

Glencore (2017a) Glencore begins sales process for Rolleston coal mine, 28 August 2017 http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/170828_Media-Statement_Glencore-begins-sale-process-for-Rolleston-coal-mine.pdf

Glencore (2017b) Update on Rolleston sale status, 13 November 2017 http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/171113_Media-Statement_Update-on-Rolleston-sale-process.pdf

GVK Hancock Coal (2017a) GVK received Environmental Authority for Kevin’s Corner Coal Mine, 1 August 2017 http://gvkhancockcoal.com/our-advantage/news/72-gvk-receives-environmental-authority-for-kevin-s-corner-coal-mine

GVK Hancock Coal (2017b) Update on GVK Hancock Coal Projects, 21 December 2017 http://gvkhancockcoal.com/our-advantage/news/73-171221-update-on-gvk-hancock-coal-projects

QGSO (2017) Bowen Basin population report, 2017 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/bowen-basin-pop-report-2017.pdf

Queensland Government (2018) Callide mine given extended life, 4 January 2018 http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2018/1/4/callide-mine-given-extended-life

Sojitz/U&D Coal (2017) Joint media release – Sojitz and U&D Coal make the final investment decision on Meteor Downs South Project, 27 July 2017 http://www.udcoal.com.au/media/1/610/Joint%20Media%20Release%20-%20MDS%20Decision%20to%20Mine[1319].pdf

http://www.adaniaustralia.com/

https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2017/171018_bhpoperationalreviewforthequarterended30september2017.pdf?la=en



http://www.bounty.com.au/_Content/Download/109/171208%20Bounty%20Mining%20-%20Cook%20Acquisition%20update.pdf

https://www.cimic.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/35718/1751404.pdf

http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/_entity/annotation/27fc7815-a78e-e711-aec9-005056ba00a7/a71d58ad-4cba-48b6-8dab-f3091fc31cd5?t=1510293062694

http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/_entity/annotation/27fc7815-a78e-e711-aec9-005056ba00a7/a71d58ad-4cba-48b6-8dab-f3091fc31cd5?t=1510293062694

http://betterplanning.qld.gov.au/resources/applications/rpi-17-004/decision-notice.pdf

http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/170828_Media-Statement_Glencore-begins-sale-process-for-Rolleston-coal-mine.pdf

http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/170828_Media-Statement_Glencore-begins-sale-process-for-Rolleston-coal-mine.pdf

http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/171113_Media-Statement_Update-on-Rolleston-sale-process.pdf

http://www.glencore.com.au/en/media-centre/News/171113_Media-Statement_Update-on-Rolleston-sale-process.pdf

http://gvkhancockcoal.com/our-advantage/news/72-gvk-receives-environmental-authority-for-kevin-s-corner-coal-mine

http://gvkhancockcoal.com/our-advantage/news/73-171221-update-on-gvk-hancock-coal-projects

http://gvkhancockcoal.com/our-advantage/news/73-171221-update-on-gvk-hancock-coal-projects

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/bowen-basin-pop-report-2017.pdf

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/bowen-basin-pop-report-2017.pdf

http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2018/1/4/callide-mine-given-extended-life

http://www.udcoal.com.au/media/1/610/Joint%20Media%20Release%20-%20MDS%20Decision%20to%20Mine%5b1319%5d.pdf

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