boston globe poll on the mass. governor's race

8/8/2019 Boston Globe poll on the Mass. governor's race

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BOSTON GLOBE POLL #28

MA2010GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

Prepared by:

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

The Survey CenterUniversity of New Hampshire

October 23, 2010


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Contents

Technical Report..........................................................................1

Data Tables .................................................................................. 2


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1

The Boston Globe Poll #28

MA 2012 Gubernatorial Election

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

October, 2010

Technical Report

Field Period: October 17 to October 22, 2010

Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Median Completion Time: 16 minutes

Full Sample

Sample Size: 601 randomly selected Massachusetts adults (RDD)519 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.0%Likely voters +/- 4.3%

Response Rate, Full Sample (AAPOR #4): 29%

4th

CDSample Size: 407 randomly selected MA 4th CD adults (RDD)

385 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full 4

th

CD sample +/- 4.9%4th CD Likely voters +/- 5.0%

10th

CDSample Size: 367 randomly selected MA 10

thCD adults (RDD)

349 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters

Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 5.1%

4th

CD Likely voters +/- 5.2%

Response Rate, 4th

and 10th

CD oversample (AAPOR #4): 20%

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers atwhich a household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual MA adult being selected.The data have also been weighted by the sex and race of the respondent and the region of the state based onthe American Community Survey conducted by the US Census.


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2

Tabular Results


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3

Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

Right Wrong Don't

Direction Track Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 55% 5% 515

Registered Democrat 62% 32% 7% 180

Registered Undeclared 30% 64% 6% 265Registered Republican 15% 83% 1% 71

Democrat 65% 28% 7% 255

Independent 15% 82% 3% 95Republican 11% 85% 4% 160

Core Republican 6% 92% 2% 142

Swing Voter 23% 73% 5% 133Core Democrat 68% 25% 8% 240

Baker voter 8% 89% 3% 197

Patrick voter 75% 17% 8% 219Cahill voter 21% 77% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 21% 72% 7% 52

Excited about November 33% 63% 4% 290

Depressed about November 52% 43% 5% 139 Neither Excited/Depressed 42% 49% 10% 85

Extremely interested in election 28% 70% 2% 209Very interested 48% 45% 6% 237Somewhat/Not Very interested 42% 47% 12% 69

Definitely will vote 38% 57% 5% 453Will vote unless emergency 47% 44% 9% 62

Trust current incumbents 77% 20% 3% 144Want new crop of leaders 12% 85% 2% 251

Other/Don't Know 50% 36% 14% 119

Approve of Patrick 76% 17% 6% 227Disapprove of Patrick 8% 91% 1% 253

Neither Approve/Disapprove 23% 46% 31% 34

Male 38% 59% 2% 254Female 40% 52% 8% 262

35 or under 41% 56% 3% 3935 to 49 33% 58% 9% 11350 to 64 47% 49% 4% 194

65 and over 35% 59% 6% 155

High school or less 22% 76% 2% 77Some college 32% 65% 3% 96

College graduate 39% 54% 7% 209

Post-graduate 55% 38% 7% 128

White 39% 56% 5% 455

Minority 49% 44% 6% 50

Inside 128 49% 47% 4% 111128 to 495 37% 57% 7% 191

Central MA 30% 64% 6% 91Western MA 43% 54% 3% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 40% 55% 4% 62


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GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Deval Patrick is handling his job as governor?

Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=)




Democrat 73% 7% 19% 256

Independent 21% 10% 69% 95Republican 11% 3% 86% 161

Core Republican 7% 2% 90% 144

Swing Voter 26% 9% 66% 133Core Democrat 76% 8% 16% 241

Baker voter 7% 1% 92% 198

Patrick voter 85% 8% 7% 220Cahill voter 21% 12% 67% 39Other/Undecided voter 32% 13% 55% 53

Excited about November 37% 3% 60% 291

Depressed about November 58% 9% 33% 140 Neither Excited/Depressed 48% 13% 39% 85

Extremely interested in election 32% 5% 62% 211Very interested 53% 6% 41% 237Somewhat/Not Very interested 51% 11% 38% 69


Trust current incumbents 82% 4% 14% 145Want new crop of leaders 16% 5% 79% 253

Other/Don't Know 58% 12% 30% 119



Male 39% 5% 56% 256Female 50% 7% 43% 262

35 or under 48% 9% 43% 3935 to 49 34% 7% 59% 11350 to 64 49% 5% 46% 197

65 and over 45% 8% 47% 155

High school or less 22% 8% 70% 77Some college 44% 8% 48% 98

College graduate 45% 6% 48% 209

Post-graduate 56% 5% 39% 129

White 43% 6% 51% 458

Minority 58% 15% 27% 50

Inside 128 58% 3% 38% 112128 to 495 37% 10% 53% 190

Central MA 38% 3% 59% 91Western MA 51% 4% 45% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 44% 9% 47% 65


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Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Governor Deval Patrick.

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N=)MA LIKELY VOTERS 49% 6% 43% 2% 518

Registered Democrat 76% 7% 14% 2% 182

Registered Undeclared 41% 6% 52% 1% 265Registered Republican 10% 6% 83% 1% 72

Democrat 82% 5% 11% 2% 256

Independent 26% 14% 59% 1% 96Republican 11% 3% 85% 2% 161

Core Republican 6% 2% 91% 1% 144

Swing Voter 31% 11% 57% 1% 133Core Democrat 85% 6% 7% 2% 242

Baker voter 9% 3% 88% 1% 198

Patrick voter 91% 5% 2% 1% 221Cahill voter 34% 10% 54% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 37% 21% 37% 5% 53

Excited about November 39% 3% 56% 1% 293

Depressed about November 68% 9% 22% 1% 139 Neither Excited/Depressed 52% 11% 34% 3% 85

Extremely interested in election 37% 5% 58% 0% 210Very interested 56% 6% 35% 2% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 61% 11% 25% 3% 69

Definitely will vote 47% 6% 45% 1% 455Will vote unless emergency 64% 5% 29% 2% 63

Trust current incumbents 88% 3% 9% 0% 145Want new crop of leaders 19% 8% 72% 2% 252

Other/Don't Know 65% 7% 24% 3% 121

Approve of Patrick 93% 3% 4% 0% 228Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 84% 1% 255

Neither Approve/Disapprove 60% 27% 4% 9% 34

Male 44% 6% 50% 1% 256Female 54% 7% 37% 2% 263

35 or under 55% 3% 41% 1% 3935 to 49 45% 1% 52% 2% 11450 to 64 55% 6% 39% 1% 196

65 and over 45% 11% 41% 3% 155

High school or less 32% 3% 61% 4% 77Some college 46% 13% 41% 1% 97

College graduate 49% 6% 43% 1% 210

Post-graduate 62% 4% 34% 0% 129

White 48% 5% 45% 1% 458

Minority 62% 16% 20% 2% 50

Inside 128 61% 12% 26% 1% 111128 to 495 45% 6% 48% 1% 191

Central MA 40% 2% 56% 3% 91Western MA 50% 6% 43% 2% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 53% 5% 40% 2% 65


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Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... State Treasurer Tim Cahill.




Democrat 28% 20% 34% 18% 257




Baker voter 16% 7% 70% 8% 198







Other/Don't Know 32% 19% 35% 14% 121



Male 23% 12% 53% 12% 256Female 25% 18% 39% 18% 264

35 or under 28% 8% 45% 19% 3935 to 49 30% 12% 44% 14% 11450 to 64 23% 18% 46% 13% 197

65 and over 22% 14% 47% 18% 155



Post-graduate 21% 15% 54% 9% 129

White 25% 14% 46% 14% 460

Minority 19% 25% 34% 22% 50

Inside 128 30% 21% 40% 10% 112128 to 495 22% 15% 54% 10% 191



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Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Republican gubernatorial candidate CharlieBaker.


Registered Democrat 15% 6% 61% 18% 182Registered Undeclared 44% 10% 34% 12% 266

Registered Republican 73% 8% 10% 8% 72

Democrat 11% 8% 66% 15% 257Independent 50% 14% 20% 17% 96Republican 74% 5% 11% 10% 161

Core Republican 79% 5% 8% 7% 144Swing Voter 48% 15% 21% 16% 134Core Democrat 8% 6% 70% 16% 242

Baker voter 80% 8% 5% 6% 198Patrick voter 6% 6% 74% 14% 221Cahill voter 21% 15% 44% 20% 39Other/Undecided voter 26% 12% 27% 34% 53

Excited about November 50% 5% 30% 14% 293Depressed about November 15% 10% 65% 10% 140

Neither Excited/Depressed 32% 14% 34% 20% 85



Trust current incumbents 13% 8% 67% 12% 145

Want new crop of leaders 59% 7% 20% 14% 253Other/Don't Know 23% 10% 51% 15% 121

Approve of Patrick 12% 6% 68% 14% 229

Disapprove of Patrick 65% 10% 14% 11% 255 Neither Approve/Disapprove 14% 10% 45% 32% 34

Male 43% 8% 37% 11% 256Female 33% 8% 43% 16% 264

35 or under 37% 5% 44% 15% 3935 to 49 43% 8% 31% 19% 114

50 to 64 35% 8% 44% 12% 19765 and over 37% 9% 41% 12% 155

High school or less 55% 5% 18% 23% 77

Some college 36% 11% 41% 12% 98

College graduate 37% 9% 41% 13% 210Post-graduate 31% 6% 53% 10% 129

White 40% 9% 39% 12% 460Minority 16% 0% 56% 28% 50

Inside 128 26% 10% 54% 10% 112

128 to 495 44% 8% 37% 11% 191Central MA 47% 8% 31% 14% 91Western MA 34% 4% 39% 24% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 30% 8% 41% 20% 65


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Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have afavorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.




Democrat 24% 8% 19% 49% 257




Baker voter 4% 12% 35% 48% 198







Other/Don't Know 19% 10% 27% 44% 121



Male 14% 12% 30% 44% 256Female 18% 9% 19% 54% 264

35 or under 23% 13% 14% 51% 3935 to 49 9% 14% 26% 51% 11450 to 64 21% 8% 23% 48% 197

65 and over 13% 12% 26% 48% 155



Post-graduate 21% 12% 27% 40% 129

White 16% 10% 25% 49% 460

Minority 19% 15% 16% 50% 50

Inside 128 33% 11% 15% 42% 112128 to 495 10% 10% 31% 49% 191



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Think for a minute about political incumbents, the people in Washington and Massachusetts who are currently in office. Overall, do youtrust current political incumbents to provide leadership in Washington and Massachusetts or do you think political incumbents in Washingtonand Massachusetts need to be replaced by a new crop of leaders?

Trust Want New

Current Crop of Other/ Dont

Incumbents Leaders Depends Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 28% 49% 19% 5% 519



Democrat 48% 22% 24% 6% 257Independent 5% 72% 17% 5% 95

Republican 8% 79% 11% 2% 161

Core Republican 7% 83% 8% 1% 144Swing Voter 10% 66% 19% 5% 133

Core Democrat 50% 19% 24% 6% 242

Baker voter 6% 80% 13% 1% 198Patrick voter 54% 16% 24% 6% 221

Cahill voter 15% 56% 27% 3% 39

Other/Undecided voter 13% 60% 12% 15% 53



Extremely interested in election 22% 59% 17% 3% 211

Very interested 32% 42% 20% 6% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 32% 41% 22% 5% 69




Male 24% 56% 17% 4% 255

Female 32% 42% 20% 5% 264

35 or under 31% 53% 15% 0% 39

35 to 49 29% 57% 8% 6% 11450 to 64 29% 41% 26% 4% 19765 and over 26% 51% 18% 5% 154

High school or less 13% 70% 12% 5% 77Some college 22% 60% 15% 4% 98College graduate 28% 47% 20% 5% 210

Post-graduate 42% 31% 23% 4% 129

White 28% 49% 19% 4% 459Minority 32% 40% 20% 8% 50

Inside 128 33% 40% 21% 5% 112128 to 495 21% 52% 22% 5% 191Central MA 26% 58% 13% 3% 91

Western MA 34% 49% 15% 3% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 36% 43% 14% 7% 65


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Thinking about all of the elections in November, both in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country, how do you feel about what willhappen in the November elections? Are you very excited somewhat excited somewhat depressed or very depressed?

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't

Excited Excited Neutral Depressed Depressed Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 16% 41% 14% 22% 5% 3% 518

Registered Democrat 7% 38% 14% 33% 6% 2% 181Registered Undeclared 18% 41% 15% 18% 5% 3% 266

Registered Republican 29% 45% 10% 11% 3% 2% 70

Democrat 7% 35% 13% 35% 8% 3% 257Independent 17% 45% 20% 12% 2% 3% 96Republican 29% 47% 12% 8% 2% 2% 159

Core Republican 39% 42% 9% 7% 2% 2% 142Swing Voter 10% 51% 21% 12% 2% 4% 134Core Democrat 6% 34% 13% 37% 8% 2% 242

Baker voter 32% 46% 10% 9% 1% 2% 197Patrick voter 6% 37% 13% 32% 8% 3% 221Cahill voter 16% 38% 27% 18% 0% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 1% 39% 13% 34% 5% 7% 53

Extremely interested in election 28% 40% 10% 16% 3% 3% 210Very interested 10% 43% 16% 24% 5% 2% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 1% 34% 18% 35% 7% 4% 69

Definitely will vote 18% 40% 13% 22% 4% 3% 454Will vote unless emergency 4% 44% 16% 23% 11% 2% 63

Trust current incumbents 9% 36% 13% 32% 7% 3% 144Want new crop of leaders 25% 44% 8% 19% 2% 2% 252Other/Don't Know 6% 40% 25% 17% 9% 3% 121

Approve of Patrick 7% 40% 15% 29% 7% 3% 228

Disapprove of Patrick 26% 42% 11% 15% 3% 2% 254 Neither Approve/Disapprove 0% 30% 26% 32% 5% 7% 34

Male 18% 40% 15% 20% 5% 2% 254

Female 14% 41% 13% 25% 5% 3% 263

35 or under 10% 58% 7% 24% 2% 0% 3935 to 49 18% 44% 11% 22% 2% 2% 11450 to 64 14% 39% 17% 24% 5% 2% 197

65 and over 18% 35% 14% 21% 6% 5% 155

High school or less 19% 34% 23% 21% 1% 2% 77

Some college 12% 44% 14% 18% 9% 3% 98College graduate 19% 42% 14% 19% 3% 3% 210Post-graduate 12% 39% 9% 31% 7% 3% 128

White 17% 40% 14% 21% 5% 3% 459

Minority 8% 46% 8% 34% 2% 1% 50

Inside 128 15% 37% 16% 24% 6% 2% 112

128 to 495 17% 44% 12% 21% 3% 3% 190Central MA 20% 43% 11% 17% 5% 4% 91Western MA 15% 38% 19% 23% 2% 3% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 37% 13% 30% 8% 3% 64


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And as you know, the general election for Governor of Massachusetts and other offices is being held in November 2010. How interestedwould you say you are in the 2010 general election ... extremely interested ... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not veryinterested?

Extremely Very Somewhat Not Very

Interested Interested Interested Interested (N=)ALL MA ADULTS 41% 46% 12% 2% 519





Baker voter 56% 37% 7% 0% 198Patrick voter 27% 55% 15% 3% 221Cahill voter 57% 38% 5% 0% 39

Other/Undecided voter 27% 47% 22% 4% 53




Trust current incumbents 32% 53% 13% 3% 144Want new crop of leaders 49% 40% 11% 1% 253Other/Don't Know 34% 51% 12% 3% 121



Male 47% 42% 9% 2% 256Female 35% 50% 14% 1% 263

35 or under 28% 50% 22% 0% 3935 to 49 43% 39% 14% 4% 114

50 to 64 41% 48% 10% 1% 19765 and over 40% 49% 10% 1% 155

High school or less 37% 47% 15% 1% 77Some college 43% 47% 10% 0% 98College graduate 43% 42% 13% 3% 210Post graduate 39% 50% 9% 2% 129

White 42% 45% 11% 2% 459Minority 27% 52% 21% 0% 50

Inside 128 35% 50% 13% 1% 112128 to 495 41% 45% 11% 3% 190Central MA 43% 42% 14% 1% 91Western MA 43% 49% 8% 0% 60

Southern MA/Cape/Islands 43% 45% 11% 1% 65


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"Which of the following statements best describes you ... I will probably not vote in the November general election, I may vote in theNovember general election, unless some emergency comes up, I will vote in the November general election, I will definitely vote in theNovember general election, or I just don't know at this time."

Will Vote Will

Unless Definitely

Emergency Vote (N=)

ALL MA ADULTS 12% 88% 519

Registered Democrat 11% 89% 182Registered Undeclared 14% 86% 266

Registered Republican 8% 92% 72

Democrat 15% 85% 257Independent 12% 88% 96

Republican 10% 90% 161

Core Republican 7% 93% 144Swing Voter 14% 86% 134

Core Democrat 14% 86% 242

Baker voter 9% 91% 198Patrick voter 16% 84% 221

Cahill voter 8% 92% 39

Other/Undecided voter 14% 86% 53

Excited about November 10% 90% 293

Depressed about November 16% 84% 140 Neither Excited/Depressed 13% 87% 85

Extremely interested in election 3% 97% 211

Very interested 14% 86% 238Somewhat/Not Very interested 33% 67% 69

Trust current incumbents 14% 86% 145Want new crop of leaders 11% 89% 253

Other/Don't Know 13% 87% 121

Approve of Patrick 16% 84% 229Disapprove of Patrick 9% 91% 255

Neither Approve/Disapprove 14% 86% 34

Male 11% 89% 256Female 14% 86% 264

35 or under 10% 90% 3935 to 49 18% 82% 11450 to 64 13% 87% 197

65 and over 8% 92% 155

High school or less 11% 89% 77Some college 16% 84% 98

College graduate 13% 87% 210

Post-graduate 11% 89% 129

White 12% 88% 460

Minority 14% 86% 50

Inside 128 12% 88% 112128 to 495 13% 87% 191

Central MA 13% 87% 91Western MA 13% 87% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 90% 65


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Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for Massachusetts governor in 2010 are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?

Def. Leaning Still

Decided Toward Trying To

Vote Someone Decide (N=)




Democrat 61% 19% 20% 257Independent 40% 17% 43% 96Republican 68% 15% 17% 159

Core Republican 74% 13% 13% 142Swing Voter 33% 24% 43% 134Core Democrat 64% 16% 19% 242

Baker voter 69% 15% 16% 197Patrick voter 67% 19% 14% 221Cahill voter 25% 28% 47% 39

Other/Undecided voter 16% 8% 76% 53

Excited about November 61% 18% 20% 291Depressed about November 56% 17% 27% 139

Neither Excited/Depressed 55% 17% 28% 85

Extremely interested in election 71% 15% 13% 211Very interested 55% 20% 25% 237

Somewhat/Not Very interested 34% 18% 48% 69


Trust current incumbents 68% 11% 21% 144Want new crop of leaders 55% 18% 27% 252Other/Don't Know 56% 24% 20% 121



Male 63% 19% 19% 254

Female 55% 16% 28% 264

35 or under 41% 26% 32% 39

35 to 49 49% 19% 33% 11450 to 64 66% 16% 18% 19765 and over 63% 16% 21% 153

High school or less 49% 13% 38% 77

Some college 58% 22% 21% 98College graduate 60% 19% 21% 210Post-graduate 65% 14% 21% 128

White 58% 18% 23% 458Minority 67% 10% 23% 50

Inside 128 63% 14% 23% 112128 to 495 60% 21% 19% 189Central MA 53% 17% 31% 91Western MA 59% 17% 24% 60

Southern MA/Cape/Islands 58% 16% 26% 64


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If the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was being held TODAY and the candidates are Charlie Baker, the Republican DevalPatrick, the Democrat Tim Cahill, the Independent and Jill Stein, the Green-Rainbow candidate, who would you vote for ... CharlieBaker Deval Patrick Tim Cahill or Jill Stein?

Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 43% 8% 2% 1% 8% 512

Registered Democrat 9% 71% 7% 3% 0% 10% 181

Registered Undeclared 47% 33% 9% 2% 2% 7% 260Registered Republican 82% 10% 4% 0% 0% 4% 72

Democrat 8% 78% 7% 1% 0% 6% 255Independent 49% 9% 14% 9% 2% 18% 91Republican 83% 7% 5% 0% 1% 4% 160

Core Republican 90% 3% 3% 0% 0% 4% 144Swing Voter 47% 15% 16% 4% 2% 16% 128Core Democrat 4% 82% 6% 2% 0% 5% 241

Excited about November 53% 33% 7% 1% 0% 6% 291Depressed about November 15% 65% 5% 6% 1% 8% 137

Neither Excited/Depressed 29% 44% 14% 0% 1% 12% 82



Trust current incumbents 9% 82% 4% 1% 0% 4% 144Want new crop of leaders 64% 14% 9% 4% 1% 8% 249Other/Don't Know 22% 56% 10% 0% 1% 11% 119

Approve of Patrick 6% 82% 4% 1% 0% 7% 227

Disapprove of Patrick 72% 6% 10% 4% 2% 6% 252 Neither Approve/Disapprove 7% 58% 14% 0% 0% 21% 32

Male 46% 37% 9% 2% 1% 5% 250

Female 32% 49% 6% 3% 1% 10% 262

35 or under 36% 41% 6% 7% 3% 6% 3935 to 49 43% 37% 12% 1% 0% 6% 11450 to 64 38% 50% 6% 0% 1% 6% 190

65 and over 38% 41% 7% 4% 0% 9% 154

High school or less 53% 22% 15% 2% 1% 7% 74

Some college 37% 44% 8% 1% 1% 8% 97College graduate 40% 42% 7% 3% 1% 7% 208Post-graduate 31% 58% 3% 2% 0% 6% 129

White 41% 42% 8% 1% 1% 7% 454

Minority 13% 62% 1% 11% 2% 10% 50

Inside 128 24% 53% 13% 2% 0% 8% 110

128 to 495 46% 41% 4% 2% 1% 6% 186Central MA 48% 36% 7% 1% 1% 7% 91Western MA 32% 40% 14% 2% 0% 12% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 36% 45% 5% 5% 1% 7% 65


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Who would your second choice be?

No Second Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Choice Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 8% 6% 25% 13% 1% 44% 3% 472

Registered Democrat 8% 5% 24% 21% 0% 40% 2% 162

Registered Undeclared 9% 8% 24% 10% 1% 44% 3% 242Registered Republican 5% 4% 28% 5% 2% 53% 2% 69

Democrat 10% 4% 25% 21% 1% 37% 3% 238

Independent 6% 13% 16% 6% 1% 55% 3% 75Republican 6% 6% 30% 5% 2% 49% 2% 154

Core Republican 4% 5% 25% 6% 2% 55% 3% 137

Swing Voter 11% 13% 29% 4% 2% 39% 2% 107Core Democrat 9% 4% 23% 22% 0% 39% 3% 228

Baker voter 1% 9% 29% 4% 2% 52% 2% 198

Patrick voter 8% 0% 27% 22% 0% 40% 3% 220Cahill voter 46% 22% 0% 13% 1% 16% 2% 39Other/Undecided voter 0% 16% 12% 0% 0% 64% 8% 15

Excited about November 6% 6% 25% 9% 1% 50% 3% 273

Depressed about November 6% 3% 25% 24% 1% 38% 2% 125 Neither Excited/Depressed 17% 11% 25% 11% 1% 32% 4% 72

Extremely interested in election 8% 4% 26% 12% 2% 48% 1% 194Very interested 8% 7% 25% 16% 1% 39% 4% 217Somewhat/Not Very interested 9% 10% 22% 7% 0% 49% 4% 61

Definitely will vote 8% 6% 26% 14% 1% 43% 2% 416Will vote unless emergency 8% 5% 17% 7% 0% 54% 9% 57

Trust current incumbents 6% 3% 23% 25% 0% 39% 4% 137Want new crop of leaders 9% 8% 22% 6% 2% 50% 3% 230

Other/Don't Know 9% 5% 34% 13% 0% 38% 1% 105

Approve of Patrick 6% 5% 24% 20% 0% 41% 3% 209Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 25% 6% 2% 48% 3% 236

Neither Approve/Disapprove 11% 9% 32% 17% 0% 29% 2% 25

Male 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 45% 1% 236Female 8% 6% 24% 13% 1% 43% 4% 237

35 or under 0% 9% 34% 8% 3% 40% 6% 3735 to 49 12% 5% 24% 12% 0% 42% 6% 10850 to 64 5% 4% 33% 18% 2% 38% 0% 179

65 and over 9% 9% 14% 9% 0% 55% 3% 138

High school or less 16% 12% 20% 2% 5% 38% 7% 69Some college 7% 7% 24% 8% 1% 50% 3% 89

College graduate 7% 6% 27% 13% 1% 45% 1% 194

Post-graduate 4% 2% 25% 24% 0% 41% 4% 120

White 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 42% 3% 422

Minority 4% 5% 18% 18% 0% 55% 0% 45

Inside 128 12% 8% 21% 14% 0% 43% 2% 101128 to 495 5% 6% 30% 11% 2% 45% 1% 173

Central MA 6% 5% 27% 13% 1% 45% 3% 85Western MA 11% 10% 16% 18% 1% 40% 5% 54Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 3% 22% 14% 0% 46% 6% 60


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If the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Treasurer was being held TODAY and the candidates are Karyn Polito, the Republican andSteve Grossman, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Karyn Polito or Steve Grossman?

Don't

Polito Grossman Other Know (N=)















Male 45% 36% 1% 17% 251Female 29% 42% 0% 28% 263

35 or under 39% 34% 3% 23% 39

35 to 49 44% 33% 0% 23% 11450 to 64 33% 46% 0% 21% 19365 and over 37% 38% 2% 24% 155



White 39% 37% 1% 23% 457

Minority 15% 63% 2% 20% 50

Inside 128 21% 59% 0% 20% 112128 to 495 38% 34% 1% 27% 186



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And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Auditor was being held TODAY and the candidates are Mary Connaughton, the Republicanand Suzanne Bump, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Mary Connaughton or Suzanne Bump

Conn- Don't

aughton Bump Other Know (N=)















Male 38% 29% 3% 30% 250Female 26% 37% 1% 36% 259

35 or under 17% 41% 7% 35% 39

35 to 49 33% 26% 1% 40% 11450 to 64 30% 39% 0% 30% 18765 and over 36% 29% 3% 32% 154



White 34% 30% 2% 34% 452

Minority 11% 64% 3% 22% 49

Inside 128 24% 42% 1% 34% 109128 to 495 37% 26% 2% 35% 185



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And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts Attorney General was being held TODAY and the candidates are James McKenna, theRepublican, and Martha Coakley, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... James McKenna ... or Martha Coakley?

Don't

McKenna Coakley Other Know (N=)















Male 43% 48% 2% 7% 251Female 27% 62% 1% 9% 263

35 or under 41% 45% 3% 11% 39

35 to 49 38% 53% 0% 8% 11450 to 64 28% 66% 0% 6% 19265 and over 39% 49% 2% 10% 155



White 36% 55% 1% 8% 456

Minority 20% 68% 2% 9% 50

Inside 128 21% 71% 1% 6% 112128 to 495 35% 54% 1% 10% 186



21/27

19

"And turning to the November election for your representative for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for theDemocratic or Republican candidate for the Massachusetts House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for MassachusettsHouse of Representatives this time?"

Don't

GOP DEM Other Know (N=)










Trust current incumbents 11% 80% 0% 9% 139Want new crop of leaders 54% 22% 2% 22% 244Other/Don't Know 22% 58% 2% 19% 118

Approve of Patrick 7% 74% 1% 18% 224

Disapprove of Patrick 62% 19% 1% 18% 246 Neither Approve/Disapprove 11% 74% 3% 11% 30

Male 41% 41% 2% 16% 245

Female 29% 52% 1% 19% 256

35 or under 29% 34% 3% 34% 3735 to 49 42% 45% 0% 13% 11150 to 64 34% 52% 0% 14% 189

65 and over 32% 45% 3% 21% 151

High school or less 51% 37% 0% 12% 70

Some college 36% 40% 2% 22% 95College graduate 32% 47% 0% 20% 207Post-graduate 28% 56% 3% 13% 125

White 37% 44% 1% 18% 449

Minority 12% 74% 5% 9% 45

Inside 128 14% 59% 1% 26% 109

128 to 495 41% 43% 2% 14% 184Central MA 41% 38% 2% 19% 90Western MA 34% 46% 0% 20% 59Southern MA/Cape/Islands 41% 49% 1% 9% 59


22/27

20

As you may know, Question 1 on the November ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts. Do you favor oroppose ballot Question 1, the proposal to eliminate the sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts, or havent you thought about this enough tosay?

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't

Favor Favor Oppose Oppose Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 29% 8% 14% 38% 11% 518

Registered Democrat 20% 6% 15% 44% 14% 182

Registered Undeclared 31% 9% 14% 36% 10% 264Registered Republican 43% 10% 13% 27% 8% 72

Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 257Independent 48% 4% 13% 27% 8% 94Republican 42% 12% 12% 23% 10% 161

Core Republican 49% 8% 13% 22% 8% 144Swing Voter 35% 10% 13% 31% 11% 132Core Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 242

Baker voter 51% 10% 10% 21% 8% 198Patrick voter 11% 7% 16% 52% 13% 221Cahill voter 28% 12% 10% 39% 12% 39

Other/Undecided voter 23% 6% 23% 35% 13% 53

Excited about November 35% 9% 13% 35% 9% 293Depressed about November 19% 8% 14% 47% 13% 140

Neither Excited/Depressed 23% 8% 21% 33% 15% 83

Extremely interested in election 41% 7% 9% 33% 10% 211Very interested 23% 8% 19% 41% 10% 237

Somewhat/Not Very interested 12% 13% 15% 43% 17% 69

Definitely will vote 31% 8% 13% 38% 10% 454Will vote unless emergency 13% 13% 21% 36% 18% 64

Trust current incumbents 11% 3% 17% 59% 10% 145Want new crop of leaders 42% 10% 11% 26% 10% 252Other/Don't Know 22% 10% 18% 36% 14% 121

Approve of Patrick 12% 8% 18% 49% 13% 229Disapprove of Patrick 46% 9% 10% 29% 6% 253

Neither Approve/Disapprove 16% 2% 20% 28% 34% 34

Male 33% 11% 12% 36% 8% 254

Female 25% 5% 16% 39% 14% 264

35 or under 34% 22% 16% 21% 7% 39

35 to 49 23% 10% 12% 45% 10% 11450 to 64 31% 6% 16% 40% 8% 19565 and over 27% 6% 15% 36% 17% 155

High school or less 38% 9% 15% 27% 12% 75

Some college 29% 7% 18% 32% 14% 98College graduate 32% 11% 13% 36% 9% 210Post-graduate 18% 5% 14% 50% 13% 129

White 29% 8% 14% 39% 10% 460Minority 23% 12% 19% 29% 18% 50

Inside 128 25% 11% 15% 40% 9% 112128 to 495 32% 6% 12% 38% 12% 189Central MA 31% 9% 12% 38% 11% 91Western MA 22% 8% 13% 40% 16% 60

Southern MA/Cape/Islands 28% 10% 24% 30% 8% 65


23/27

21

As you may know, Question 2 on the November ballot is a proposal that would repeal the state's affordable housing law. Do you favor oroppose Question 2, the proposal to repeal the state's affordable housing law, or haven't you thought about this enough to say?



MA LIKELY VOTERS 17% 7% 15% 23% 38% 516

Registered Democrat 12% 2% 14% 33% 39% 180Registered Undeclared 17% 10% 14% 19% 39% 264

Registered Republican 27% 5% 20% 15% 33% 72



Baker voter 27% 10% 13% 15% 35% 198Patrick voter 9% 4% 16% 32% 39% 221Cahill voter 23% 0% 14% 19% 44% 39Other/Undecided voter 8% 13% 16% 26% 37% 52



Extremely interested in election 26% 5% 13% 22% 33% 210Very interested 11% 8% 16% 25% 40% 237Somewhat/Not Very interested 7% 8% 16% 21% 48% 69


Trust current incumbents 10% 4% 16% 35% 35% 144

Want new crop of leaders 23% 9% 14% 18% 37% 252Other/Don't Know 12% 5% 16% 22% 45% 119

Approve of Patrick 9% 5% 16% 30% 40% 228

Disapprove of Patrick 26% 9% 13% 18% 34% 253 Neither Approve/Disapprove 4% 10% 14% 22% 51% 32

Male 21% 6% 15% 23% 34% 254Female 13% 7% 15% 24% 42% 262

35 or under 7% 5% 12% 35% 41% 3935 to 49 18% 7% 15% 19% 42% 114

50 to 64 18% 7% 16% 24% 35% 19465 and over 15% 8% 16% 24% 37% 155


Some college 16% 13% 13% 18% 40% 98

College graduate 15% 5% 17% 24% 40% 210Post-graduate 16% 6% 21% 29% 28% 128

White 17% 7% 15% 23% 37% 459Minority 8% 8% 11% 26% 47% 49

Inside 128 17% 5% 13% 33% 32% 112

128 to 495 16% 5% 15% 20% 44% 188Central MA 17% 13% 15% 19% 36% 91Western MA 17% 5% 12% 27% 39% 60Southern MA/Cape/Islands 18% 8% 21% 20% 33% 64


24/27

22

And as you may know, Question 3 on the November ballot is a proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3percent. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 3, the proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent, orhavent you thought about this enough to say?



MA LIKELY VOTERS 35% 8% 12% 38% 7% 518





Baker voter 59% 9% 12% 16% 4% 198Patrick voter 10% 8% 11% 62% 9% 221Cahill voter 55% 8% 10% 26% 2% 39

Other/Undecided voter 39% 4% 16% 33% 8% 53



Extremely interested in election 51% 5% 8% 29% 7% 211Very interested 25% 9% 13% 48% 5% 237

Somewhat/Not Very interested 23% 10% 23% 33% 12% 69


Trust current incumbents 12% 3% 16% 63% 6% 145Want new crop of leaders 55% 10% 11% 19% 4% 252Other/Don't Know 22% 9% 10% 48% 12% 121



Male 42% 7% 11% 36% 4% 254

Female 28% 9% 13% 41% 9% 264

35 or under 43% 4% 18% 27% 8% 39

35 to 49 41% 7% 17% 32% 3% 11450 to 64 34% 6% 12% 45% 4% 19565 and over 30% 11% 9% 39% 10% 155


Some college 37% 12% 13% 31% 7% 98College graduate 36% 9% 10% 39% 6% 210Post-graduate 27% 3% 13% 48% 8% 129

White 35% 8% 12% 40% 6% 460Minority 37% 8% 20% 26% 10% 50

Inside 128 26% 11% 6% 50% 7% 112128 to 495 37% 7% 12% 36% 8% 189Central MA 40% 5% 13% 36% 5% 91Western MA 33% 8% 16% 37% 5% 60

Southern MA/Cape/Islands 41% 8% 18% 26% 6% 65


25/27

23

Which candidate do you think is the strongest leader?

Don't

Baker Patrick Cahill Other Know (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 40% 42% 5% 1% 12% 496



Democrat 16% 68% 4% 0% 11% 247

Independent 45% 22% 11% 1% 20% 88Republican 78% 9% 3% 1% 9% 154

Core Republican 80% 7% 4% 0% 10% 139

Swing Voter 48% 22% 9% 3% 18% 127Core Democrat 13% 73% 4% 0% 11% 229

Baker voter 84% 7% 1% 1% 8% 194

Patrick voter 8% 83% 1% 0% 7% 211Cahill voter 28% 19% 45% 0% 9% 37Other/Undecided voter 18% 22% 7% 5% 48% 47

Excited about November 50% 32% 6% 1% 11% 290

Depressed about November 19% 66% 3% 0% 12% 124 Neither Excited/Depressed 40% 40% 5% 0% 15% 80

Extremely interested in election 53% 34% 4% 1% 8% 206Very interested 32% 48% 5% 1% 14% 228Somewhat/Not Very interested 30% 45% 7% 0% 18% 62


Trust current incumbents 15% 73% 3% 0% 9% 138Want new crop of leaders 65% 17% 6% 1% 10% 241

Other/Don't Know 21% 54% 6% 0% 19% 116



Male 50% 35% 5% 1% 9% 247Female 31% 48% 5% 0% 16% 249

35 or under 36% 41% 6% 6% 12% 3935 to 49 50% 31% 6% 1% 11% 11150 to 64 36% 48% 5% 0% 11% 190

65 and over 39% 42% 4% 0% 15% 142

High school or less 50% 28% 8% 0% 14% 72Some college 39% 42% 4% 1% 14% 96

College graduate 40% 40% 7% 1% 12% 198

Post-graduate 37% 53% 1% 0% 9% 125

White 42% 41% 5% 1% 11% 440

Minority 17% 52% 9% 3% 19% 46

Inside 128 33% 54% 3% 0% 11% 104128 to 495 49% 36% 4% 0% 11% 184

Central MA 49% 30% 7% 1% 12% 88Western MA 21% 51% 11% 2% 15% 57Southern MA/Cape/Islands 34% 47% 3% 2% 14% 63


26/27

24

Which candidate do you think best understands people like me?

Don't


MA LIKELY VOTERS 32% 36% 13% 6% 1% 12% 489



Democrat 7% 63% 14% 5% 0% 10% 246

Independent 44% 12% 11% 14% 1% 17% 87Republican 67% 5% 12% 2% 2% 12% 151

Core Republican 75% 2% 8% 2% 1% 12% 134

Swing Voter 39% 19% 16% 7% 1% 17% 123Core Democrat 4% 65% 14% 8% 0% 9% 232

Baker voter 78% 4% 6% 2% 1% 9% 186

Patrick voter 3% 75% 9% 5% 0% 9% 210Cahill voter 3% 9% 75% 2% 1% 9% 37Other/Undecided voter 8% 13% 13% 22% 3% 40% 52

Excited about November 47% 28% 11% 3% 1% 11% 290

Depressed about November 9% 50% 15% 15% 1% 10% 126 Neither Excited/Depressed 15% 42% 18% 3% 0% 22% 73



Trust current incumbents 7% 66% 12% 6% 0% 10% 138Want new crop of leaders 54% 13% 11% 7% 1% 14% 235

Other/Don't Know 18% 47% 18% 4% 0% 12% 115

Approve of Patrick 5% 69% 11% 4% 0% 10% 219Disapprove of Patrick 61% 5% 14% 7% 1% 12% 240

Neither Approve/Disapprove 4% 36% 21% 9% 2% 29% 29

Male 38% 34% 13% 5% 1% 10% 240Female 27% 37% 13% 7% 1% 15% 250

35 or under 31% 34% 6% 13% 3% 12% 3835 to 49 38% 27% 21% 3% 0% 11% 10850 to 64 28% 40% 14% 6% 0% 11% 185

65 and over 32% 38% 8% 6% 1% 14% 145

High school or less 42% 23% 15% 6% 0% 13% 70Some college 30% 38% 12% 1% 3% 16% 95

College graduate 34% 34% 15% 6% 0% 11% 199

Post-graduate 26% 47% 10% 8% 0% 8% 121

White 34% 35% 14% 5% 0% 11% 435

Minority 14% 51% 5% 14% 3% 14% 47

Inside 128 20% 46% 16% 7% 0% 12% 105128 to 495 37% 32% 12% 7% 0% 11% 179

Central MA 44% 30% 10% 4% 2% 9% 90Western MA 25% 36% 17% 2% 2% 17% 56Southern MA/Cape/Islands 28% 40% 9% 7% 1% 16% 60


27/27

Which candidate do you think is most likable?

Don't


MA LIKELY VOTERS 25% 44% 14% 4% 0% 13% 485



Democrat 12% 63% 13% 3% 0% 9% 244

Independent 24% 27% 17% 11% 1% 20% 86Republican 46% 24% 16% 1% 0% 13% 149

Core Republican 55% 18% 11% 3% 0% 13% 133

Swing Voter 18% 35% 24% 4% 0% 18% 119Core Democrat 11% 64% 11% 4% 0% 9% 232

Baker voter 50% 23% 15% 2% 0% 10% 185

Patrick voter 9% 71% 7% 3% 0% 10% 209Cahill voter 16% 19% 47% 3% 0% 14% 35Other/Undecided voter 5% 28% 20% 14% 1% 31% 51

Excited about November 33% 39% 14% 3% 0% 11% 278

Depressed about November 13% 56% 12% 7% 0% 11% 129 Neither Excited/Depressed 15% 43% 19% 3% 0% 20% 77



Trust current incumbents 9% 67% 9% 3% 0% 13% 133Want new crop of leaders 41% 25% 18% 5% 0% 11% 232

Other/Don't Know 10% 56% 15% 4% 0% 16% 119

Approve of Patrick 11% 67% 8% 3% 0% 11% 217Disapprove of Patrick 40% 22% 20% 5% 0% 13% 235

Neither Approve/Disapprove 6% 49% 19% 4% 0% 23% 31

Male 27% 42% 16% 3% 0% 13% 237Female 23% 46% 13% 5% 0% 13% 248

35 or under 21% 43% 11% 17% 0% 8% 3735 to 49 26% 41% 19% 3% 0% 11% 10850 to 64 26% 46% 15% 2% 0% 11% 184

65 and over 24% 43% 12% 5% 0% 16% 143

High school or less 41% 26% 18% 4% 1% 10% 71Some college 23% 49% 13% 2% 0% 12% 97

College graduate 21% 46% 16% 5% 0% 11% 193

Post-graduate 22% 49% 10% 4% 0% 15% 120

White 26% 43% 15% 3% 0% 13% 427

Minority 17% 54% 11% 11% 0% 7% 50

Inside 128 19% 47% 20% 5% 0% 10% 107128 to 495 27% 47% 12% 2% 0% 11% 173

Central MA 32% 33% 16% 4% 0% 15% 90Western MA 21% 52% 9% 4% 0% 14% 54Southern MA/Cape/Islands 23% 41% 13% 6% 0% 17% 62

boston globe poll on the mass. governor's race

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