boreal forest resilience some initial thoughts bnz lter meeting, march 2009 terry chapin & jill...
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Boreal forest resilience
Some initial thoughtsBNZ LTER meeting, March 2009
Terry Chapin & Jill Johnstone
Is the boreal forest vulnerable to climate change?
• Is the degree of exposure high? Yes• Is it sensitive to changing climate? Yes• Does it have the diversity to adapt to change?
– Species diversity?– Functional diversity?– Landscape diversity?
• Roles of local adjustment, migration, and invasion?
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
-6-4
-20
24
68
Year
Mar
ch t
hru
June
Mea
n Te
mpe
ratu
re (
C)
CRU + GCM CompositeECHAM5HADCM3MIROC3.5GFDL2.1CGCM3.1
March-June Average Temperature (C°) Alaska: 1901-2099
Torre Jorgenson
Kenai bark beetle outbreak
Area burned in W. North America has doubled
in last 40 years
Rupp
We can expect more wildfire
Rural communities have locations fixed by infrastructure
People’s fine-scale relationship with fire has changed over time
• Pre-contact: Mobile family groups– People adjust to fire regime
• 1950s: Consolidation in permanent settlements– Fire affects communities
Wildfire options in 20-50 years?
• Maintain same fire regime as today?– ~20-fold increase in cost
• Maintain current budget for suppression?– Reduce area protected despite rising population
• Change landscape pattern of fire?– Increase landscape heterogeneity: reduce risk of huge fires– Requires community engagement in fire planning
How resilient is the boreal forest to climate change?
• Does it have the adaptive capacity to adjust?• What components will be resilient and what
will transform?• Can fine-scale change contribute to coarse-
scale resilience?– e.g., shift to deciduous dominance maintains fire
as a critical forest process
Resilience & Ecosystem FeedbacksDominant species
RecruitmentInteractions
Competition, herbivory
Functional traits
Disturbance
Black spruce dominant
Local seed rain
Growth & survival
FIRE
Poor quality seedbeds (organic soil)
Slow growthLow competition
High moistureHigh mossCool soils
Resilience cycles in black spruce
Black spruce dominant
Local seed rain
Growth & survival
FIRE
Poor quality seedbeds
(organic soil)
Slow growthLow competition
High moistureHigh mossCool soils
Black spruce forests
Deciduous dominant
Resprouting & seed dispersal
Growth & survival
High quality seedbeds (mineral soil)
Rapid growthHigh competition
Low moistureRapid cyclingWarm soils FIRE
Deciduous forests
Contrasting plant resilience cycles
severe fire
long fire interval
short fire interval
Thick organic layer
Cool, moist soils
Slow decomposition
Slow nutrient turnover
High moss NPP
Low severity fire
High severity fire
Long fire-free interval
Thick organic layer
Shallow organic layer
Warm, well-drained soils
Rapid decomposition
High nutrient turnover
High vascular plant NPP
High litter production
Low moss NPP
Shallow organic layer
Resilience cycles mediated by soil
Time
disturbance
Hidden changes in resilience yield ecological surprises
Rel
ativ
e sp
ecie
s do
min
ance
Undisturbed trajectory
Disturbed trajectory
Directional change in recruitment potential
Detailed paleo-records are often consistent with resilience thresholds
Species abundance 1
Spe
cies
abu
ndan
ce
2
Species abundance 1S
peci
es a
bund
ance
21K
5K
Abrupt ecosystem shifts
From Tinner et al. 2008
Disturbance & climate interact to alter forest resilience
tundra black spruce deciduous
dynamic equilibrium
directional change
Landscapes will have variable resilience
well drained
moderately drained
poorly drained
b. Pre-fire organic layer depth
c. Propagation potential of smouldering combustion
d. Magnitude of severity effects
a. Landscape moisture gradient
(-)
(+)
Example: Ecosystem sensitivity to surface fuel consumption
high resilience
high resilience
low resilience
Summary of Points
• Biotic and abiotic elements interact to determine resilience– What interactions are most critical?– Do we know enough to predict these?– Can we test our predictions?
• Strong interactions may maintain non-equilibrium ecosystems– “Hidden” changes in resilience– Sudden responses – Possibly (often?) catalyzed by disturbance