book summary (abbreviated) - mern · sustainable energy - without the hot air (sewtha) author:...

Sustainable Energy - without the hot air(SEWTHA)

Author: David JC MacKay

Oct 11, 2013

Prepared by Steven Lightfoot, Eng.Consulting engineer, energy policy advisor

Book Summary (abbreviated)Prepared for la Commission sur les enjeux

énergétiques du Québec

1

About the author/book• David JC MacKay is a professor of physics at the

University of Cambridge (UK)

• Basis of the 350 page book is an order of magnitude analysis of energy uses and potential renewable sources for a quantitativecomparison

• It is a formally published book, but a free PDF version is available (14 meg)

• The content of the book (minus photos/cartoons) is free for use for educational purposes

Sustainable Energy without the hot air – Book Summary2

• The author considers whether the UK can live sustainably, without fossil fuels

• His analysis is based on the current lifestyle of a moderately affluent person (i.e. someone who takes airplane flights for vacations)

Sustainable Energy without the hot air – Book Summary

Objective

3

General Approach

• Goal – To produce an energy balance sheet

• Analysis uses the energy unit kWh/p/d

• Back of the envelope type calculations


…or maybe…

4

Consumption and production of energy


Preliminary results – Can we live on renewables?


• Consumption: 195 kWh/p/d

• Production: 180 kWh/p/d

Average consumption:

• 125 kWh/p/d (UK)

• 250 kWh/p/d (USA)

6

Source: UNDP


The renewable production situation after public consultation

• To make a difference, renewable facilities have to be country-sized.

• What’s required are BIG changes in demand and in supply.


Preliminary Conclusions

8

Reducing demand:

� Reduce populations

� Change lifestyles

� Keep lifestyle, reduce energy intensity

Increasing supply� “Clean coal”� Nuclear fission� Buy renewable energy

from other countries –most countries will not have renewable energy to spare


General Approach – more electrical power

9

McKay in fact challenges the practical nature of all these plans!


Five energy plans for Britain – Producing lots of electricity

10

D (Domestic Diversity)

N (NIMBY)

L (Liberal Democrats)

G (Green)

E (Economics)

M (Middle)


Plan M – Typical impact on landscape

11

Matters concerning energy policy must be QUANTIFIED for rational decision making


Principal Conclusion of SEWTHA

12

“For a successful technology reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature

cannot be fooled” - Richard Feynman

Energy/power density: historically always increasing

This slide copyright 2012 © Steven D. Lightfoot, Eng.13

Time

PetroleumNaturalGas

Uranium

Hydrogen

Human/Animaleffort

CoalWood/biomass

Renewables –Wind, solar, biomass(hydro excluded)

Populationdensity

Lifestyles

Before the industrial revolution Today

Abolition of slavery in US

Energy/powerdensity(Mass/areabasis)

[not to scale]

Wind/solar PV non-dispatchable in powergen


Correlation/causation between energy use and material standard of living


Energy requirements of different forms of transport

15

Ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

(kW

h pe

r 10

0 pe

rson

-km

)


Unintended Consequences of poor energy planning

16

• Closing it is a strategic mistake & driven by ideological/political agenda

• Keeping it operational allows the continued development of expertise in nuclear operation and safety in Quebec

• Some form of nuclear power IS the future, and France has lead the way.

• Leading environmentalists support nuclear including: James Hansen, Stewart Brand, George Monbiot


Gentilly 2

17

• Contact Info:• Steven D. Lightfoot, Eng., consulting engineer and

energy policy advisor at The Lightfoot Institute & Nobody’s Fuel

• Montreal, Canada

• [email protected]

• 514-830-7838


book summary (abbreviated) - mern · sustainable energy - without the hot air (sewtha) author:...

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