book of abstracts · patronage the is ro’16 conference is organized under the patronage of the...

Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO -

International Statistical Conference in Croatia -

Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06 May 2016

CONFERENCE TOPIC:

„New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in

European Union“

Vol. 1, No. 1

ISSN: 1849-9864

Croatian Statistical Association

Zagreb, 2016

I

Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO –

International Statistical Conference in Croatia

Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06 May 2016

CONFERENCE TOPIC:

„New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in

European Union“

Vol. 1, No. 1

Chief Editors:

Ksenija Dumičić, Nataša Erjavec, Mirjana Pejić Bach

ISSN 1849-9864

Zagreb, 2016

II

Impressum Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia - Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06 May 2016 CONFERENCE TOPIC: „New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union“ CHIEF EDITORS Ksenija Dumičić, Nataša Erjavec, Mirjana Pejić Bach PUBLISHER Croatian Statistical Association (CSA) / Hrvatsko statističko društvo (HSD) Ilica 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia www.hsd-stat.hr TECHNICAL EDITORS Maja Pekeč Berislav Žmuk PRINT Recom d.o.o. Kamenarka 31, HR-10010 Zagreb www.recom.hr

ORGANIZERS OF THE ISCCRO’16 CONFERENCE The ISCCRO’16 Conference is organized by Croatian Statistical Association and is co-organized by the Croatian Chamber of Economy.

PATRONAGE The ISCCRO’16 Conference is organized under the patronage of the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia.

All the abstracts in this Book of Abstracts are subjects of the double-blind reviews.

Abbreviation: Book abstr. ISCCRO - Int. Stat. Conf. Croat. Print ISSN 1849-9864

III

Focus and Scope of the ISCCRO Conference The first International Statistical Conference in Croatia- ISCCRO’16 is organized by the Croatian Statistical Association (CSA), co-organized by the Croatian Chamber of Economy, and under the patronage of the Ministry of Sciences, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia. It has been held from the 5th May to the 6th May 2016 in Zagreb, Croatia. The conference covers statistical topics and areas, but also similar and related and multidisciplinary fields. It provides a platform for international and national networking and exchange of ideas on various aspects of statistics and related professional and scientific areas. The ISCCRO’16 conference is the premiere scientific event in the area of statistics organized in Croatia by the CSA with the tendency to become an annual event important not only for Croatia, but also internationally, attracting both scientists and professionals in statistics and related multidisciplinary fields from many countries. To apply for the ISCCRO’16 conference you might not only be a Statistician, but also of some other title that might include such as the following: Business Analyst, Professor, Researcher, Economist, Software Engineer, Mathematician, Risk Analyst, Quality Analyst, Investigator, Environmental Scientist, Pharmaceutical Engineer, Data Analyst, Project Manager, Manager, etc. One should attend the international conference ISCCRO’16 because of the range of theoretical and practical statistical topics, discussed by a wider audience, which makes this conference as the unique in Croatia. Invited people gather all statisticians and data users. Therefore, this is the best place for sharing and exchanging information and building networks, both domestic and international, where each learns from the other. This Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO – International Statistical Conference in Croatia (with print ISSN 1849-9864) contains the Plenary Speech abstract and 55 abstracts divided into seven Chapters. It is followed by the conference Proceedings that are published separately as an electronical issue with 34 full papers: Proceedings of the ISCCRO – International Statistical Conference in Croatia - Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06 May 2016; TOPIC: „New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union“ (Electronic ISSN 1849-9872). All the proceedings’ papers are subjects of the anonymous double-blind peer reviews done by two independent reviewers.

General Chair of the ISCCRO’16: Marko Krištof, Director General of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia

ISCCRO’16 Conference Program Chair: Ksenija Dumičić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia

ISCCRO’16 Conference International Scientific Committee: Nataša Erjavec, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia (Chair) Josip Arnerić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Petar Atanasov, Ss. Cyril and Methodius Univ., Faculty of Sociology, Skopje, R. of Macedonia Dragan Bagić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Dept. of Sociology, Zagreb, Croatia Vlasta Bahovec, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Bojan Basrak, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Dept. of Mathematics, Zagreb, Croatia Mojca Bavdaž, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Academic Unit for Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, Ljubljana, Slovenia Predrag Bejaković, Institute of Public Finance, Zagreb, Croatia Mirta Benšić, J.J. Strossmayer Univ. of Osijek, Dept. of Mathematics, Unit for Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Osijek, Croatia Lynne Billard, Univ. of Georgia, Dept. of Statistics, Athens, Georgia, USA Andrej Blejec, Univ. of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty & National Institute of Biology (President of the Slovenian Statistical Society), Ljubljana, Slovenia Srđan Bogosavljević, Univ. of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Belgrade, Serbia Lea Bregar, PhD, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia Vesna Bucevska, Ss. Cyril and Methodius Univ. Faculty of Economics, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Skopje, R. of Macedonia Jozef Bushati, Luigj Gurakuqi Univ. of Shkodra, Dept. of Mathematics, Statistics and Applied Informatics, Shkodra, Albania Vesna Buško, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Dept. of Psychology, Zagreb, Croatia

IV

James J. Cochran, Univ. of Alabama, Dept. of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management Science, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA Vesna Čančer, Univ. of Maribor, Faculty for Economics and Business, Maribor, Slovenia Draženka Čizmić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Mirjana Čižmešija, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Marc-Arthur Diaye, Univ. of Evry Île de France, Dept. of Economics, Evry Île de France, France Somnath Datta, Dept. of Biostatistics Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA Susmita Datta, Dept. of Biostatistics Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA Luca Di Gennaro Splendore, Statistical Consultant of European Union, European Union Election Observation Missions (EUEOM) Samo Drobne, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Ljubljana, Slovenia Fatih Destović, Univ. of Sarajevo, Faculty of Pedagogy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Ksenija Dumičić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Croatia Rajeev Dwivedi, Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad, India Senad Fazlović, Univ. of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, Bosnia and Herzegovina Anuška Ferligoj, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Social Sciences, Ljubljana, Slovenia Nancy Flournoy, Univ. of Missouri-Columbia, Dept. of Statistics, Columbia, Missouri, USA Jakov Gelo, Prof. Emeritus, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Demographics, Zagreb, Croatia Tom Gillpatrick, Portland State Univ. School of Business Administration, Portland, Oregon, USA Amanda Golbeck, Univ. of Montana, School of Public and Community Health Sciences, Montana, USA Chen Hua, Shanghai Univ. of International Business and Economics, Dept. of International Economics, Shangai, China Miljenko Huzak, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Dept. of Mathematics, Zagreb, Croatia Anamarija Jazbec, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Forestry, Dept. for Forest Inventory and Management, Zagreb, Croatia Gindra Kasnauskiené, Vilnius Univ., Faculty of Economics, Dept. of Quantitative Methods and Modeling, Vilnius, Lithuania Milorad S. Kovacevic, Chief Statistician, United Nations Development Programme, New York City, New York, USA Miladin G. Kovačević, Director General of the Rep. Bureau of Statistics of Serbia & Faculty of Economics, Belgrade, Serbia Nataša Kurnoga, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Éva Laczka, Hungarian Central Statistical Office (President of the Hungarian Statistical Association), Budapest, Hungary Peter Laimer, Statistics Austria, Directorate Spatial Statistics – Tourism, Motor Vehicles, Road Safety, Vienna, Austria Anita Lee-Post, Univ. of Kentucky, School of Management, Decision Science and Information Systems, Lexington, Kuntucky, USA Goran Lešaja, Georgia Southern Univ. College of Science and Mathematics, Dept. of Mathematical Science, Georgia, USA Michael Loupis, Univ. of Applied Sciences of Central Greece, Lamia, Greece Zagorka Lozanov-Crvenković, Univ. of Novi Sad, Faculty of Science, Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics, Novi Sad, Serbia Aleksandra Marcikić, Univ. of Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics Subotica, Dept. of Business Informatics and Quantitative Methods, Novi Sad, Serbia Maja Meško, Univ. of Primorska, Faculty for Management, Koper, Slovenia Srđan Mrkić, United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), New York City, New York, USA Danijel Nestić, Economic Institute Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Blagica Novkovska, Statistical Consultant, R. of Macedonia Irena Ograjenšek, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Academic Unit for Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, Ljubljana, Slovenia Mirjana Pejić Bach, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Informatics, Zagreb, Croatia Sanja Peković, Univ. of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro Tunjo Perić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Mathematics, Zagreb, Croatia Lovrenc Pfajfar, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia Snježana Pivac, Univ. of Split, Faculty of Economics, Dept. for Quantitative Methods, Split, Croatia Božidar V. Popović, Univ. of Montenegro, Faculty of Philosophy, Nikšić, Montenegro Željko Račić, Univ. of Banja Luka, Faculty of Economics, R. of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina Gábor Rappai, Univ. of Pécs, Institute of Business Methodologies, Pécs, Hungary Emina Resić, Univ. of Sarajevo, School of Economics and Business, Dept. for Quantitative Economics, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Sead Rešić, Univ. of Tuzla, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Bosnia and Herzegovina Jože Rovan, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia Jasmina Selimović, Univ. of Sarajevo, School of Economics and Business, Dept. for Quantitative Economics & Dept. of Finance, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Rabija Somun-Kapatanović, Univ. of Sarajevo, School of Economics and Business, Dept. for Quantitative Economics, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

V

Janez Stare, Univ. of Ljubljana, Faculty of Medicine, Dept. of Biomedical Informatics, Ljubljana, Slovenia & Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Ljubljana, Slovenia Stevan R. Stević, Univ. of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Economics Brcko, Bosnia and Herzegovina Željko Šain, Univ. of Sarajevo, School of Economics and Business, Dept. for Quantitative Economics & Dept. of Finance, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Ensar Šehić, Univ. of Sarajevo, School of Economics and Business, Dept. for Quantitative Economics, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Josip Tica, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Macroeconomics and Economic Development, Zagreb, Croatia João Varajã, Univ. of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Portugal Emir Veledar, Florida International Univ. Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Social Work, Dept. of Biostatistics, Miami, Florida, USA Maruška Vizek, Economic Institute Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Lidija Zadnik- Stirn, Univ. of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Ljubljana, Slovenia Sejfudin Zahirović, Univ. of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina Marijana Zekić-Sušac, J.J. Strosmayer Univ. of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Osijek, Croatia Janez Žerovnik, Univ. of Ljubljana, Institute of Mathematics, Physics and Mechanics & Faculty for Mechanical Engineering, Ljubljana, Slovenia Saša Žiković, Univ. of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, Dept. for Finance and Banking, Rijeka, Croatia

ISCCRO’16 Conference Organizing Committee: Anita Čeh Časni, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia (Chair) Mario Gavrić, Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia (Chair) Marianne Idžaković, Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure, Zagreb, Croatia Saša Jakšić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Nino Mrša, Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia Jasna Pugar, Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia Maja Pekeč, Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia Dubravka Rogić-Hadžalić, Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia Petar Sorić, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia Berislav Žmuk, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia

ISCCRO’16 Conference Publishing Chair: Berislav Žmuk, Univ. of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Dept. of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia

ISCCRO’16: The 1st International Statistical Conference in Croatia, 05-06 May, 2016, Zagreb, Croatia CONFERENCE TOPIC: „New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union“ ISCCRO’16 Conference Web Site: http://www.hsd-stat.hr/en/isccro_en/

http://www.hsd-stat.hr/en/isccro_en/

VII

Contents

Page

Plenary Speech Abstract 1

New Developments in Seasonal Adjustment

Ante Rozga

3

Special Session for Challenges of Official Statistics 5

A primer for the time series relational database built on Statistical Data and Metadata

eXchange

Goran Gruić

7

Analysing daily time series: Adjusting seasonal and moving holiday effects

Daniel Ollech

8

Can public health registries directly impact the quality of life of population?

Tomislav Benjak, Vesna Štefančić, Željka Draušnik

9

Implementation of Quality Management and Documentation System in Croatian Bureau

of Statistics

Mario Gavrić

10

Importance of the Cooperation Agreement in the Compilation of Government Finance

Statistics in Croatia

Davor Galinec, Jadranka Vuglar

11

Is the targeting of social transfers in Bosnia and Herzegovina getting better? Evidence

from household budget surveys

Rabija Somun-Kapetanović, Edin Šabanović

12

Statistical data processing – new approaches at Statistical Office of the Republic of

Slovenia

Rudi Seljak, Jerneja Pikelj, Kaja Malešič

13

The challenges of estimating monthly national accounts data in Croatia

Petar Sorić, Mirjana Čižmešija, Ivana Lolić

14

Use of administrative data for statistical purposes – challenges and perspectives in use of

administrative data in business statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Rabija Somun – Kapetanović, Emina Resić, Fahir Kanlić

15

Special Session for Young Statisticians 17

Alternative Benefit-of-the-Doubt approach to the Composite I-distance Indicator

methodology: The case of QS World University Rankings by Subject

Milica Maricic, Milica Bulajic, Zoran Radojicic, Veljko Jeremic

19

Analysis of effective motivation factors among members on entry in agricultural

cooperatives

Aleksandar Nedanov, Vladimir Jerebić, Lavoslav Čaklović

20

VIII

The actuarial projection method for pension fund’s dependency ratio in case of Pension

and Disability Insurance Fund of Republic of Srpska

Nikolina Bošnjak

21

The time series modelling of hourly electrical energy net position

Eva Demšar, Damijana Kastelec

22

Advances in Statistical Methods and Methodology 23

Comparing two partitions obtained on different sets of units

Marjan Cugmas, Anuška Ferligoj

25

Estimation of differential entropy

Zagorka Lozanov-Crvenković, Emilija Nikolić-Đorić

26

European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), 2nd wave in Croatia

Vlasta Dečković-Vukres, Ana Ivičević Uhernik, Sandra Mihel

27

Evaluation of mean imputation method appropriateness in business surveys: Case of

statistical methods use survey in Croatian enterprises

Berislav Žmuk

28

On some properties of the coefficient of determination

Janez Stare

29

The ranking of EU countries based on indicators of the EU Sustainable Development

Strategy

Svjetlana Janković Šoja, Dana Bucalo Jelić, Radojka Maletić

30

Biometrics in Action 31

Assessing technical efficiency and exploring non-discretionary factors with Data

Envelopment Analysis and Tobit regression

Vasja Leban, Donald G. Hodges, Lidija Zadnik Stirn, Janez Krč, Špela Pezdevšek

Malovrh

33

Comparison of morphological and genetic characterization in similarity analysis of vine

grape cultivars of Herzegovina

Zrinka Knezović, Ana Mandić, Nikica Perić, Jure Beljo, Maja Žulj Mihaljević

35

Improved protein inference from tandem mass spectrometry data

Susmita Datta

36

Marginal regression models for clustered count data based on zero-inflated Conway-

Maxwell-Poisson distribution with applications

Somnath Datta, Hyoyoung Choo-Wosoba, Steven Levy

37

Econometrics and Economics Applications 39

A micro data approach to the identification of financial constraints in Croatia

Velimir Šonje, Jasena Torma Kukavčić

41

An optimisation method for iterative motif scanning

Maja Zagorščak, Maja Cigula, Pavle Goldstein 42

IX

Cumulative prospect evaluation with the moving reference point

Lavoslav Čaklović, Doris Božović

43

Differences in Croatian regional labour market adjustment mechanisms

Nataša Erjavec, Saša Jakšić

44

Financial literacy and financial successfulness: How do Croatian women fare?

Dajana Barbić, Vlasta Bahovec, Irena Palić

45

Looking for statistical twins – propensity score matching as a tool for measuring the

effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies implemented by Croatian Employment

Service

Michał Kotnarowski, Gordan Beraković, Branka Hodak, Josip Ivišić, Marino Šeparović

46

Measuring and ranking social preferences of investment project alternatives using

particular multivariate methodology

Lidija Zadnik Stirn

48

Modelling housing wealth effect on personal consumption in selected EU countries

Anita Čeh Časni

49

Multivariate analysis of human capital investments and national welfare in EU countries

Snježana Pivac, Željana Aljinović Barać, Ivana Tadić

50

Multivariate statistical methods as a tool of industry financial analysis: Evidence from

Bosnia and Herzegovina construction industry

Emina Resić, Jasmina Mangafić, Tunjo Perić

51

Technical efficiency of banks in Croatia

Mario Bambulović, Ivan Huljak

52

The analysis of banking sector assets concentration measures in Croatia from 2003 to

2014

Irena Palić, Ksenija Dumičić, Maja Čurković

53

The Day of the Week Effect on the Macedonian Stock Market Index

Vesna Bucevska, Dragan Denkovski

54

The determinants of employment of small and medium-sized enterprises in the European

Union: A panel data analysis

Martina Basarac Sertić, Martina Harc

55

The Palma ratio and the Gini coefficient in measuring inequality of households’ income

in selected European countries

Ksenija Dumičić, Josipa Akalović Antić

56

The size of the hidden economy in Macedonia: Tendencies and challenges

Blagica Novkovska

57

The time disaggregation of GDP series for chosen five South-East European countries

Mislav Šagovac, Luka Šikić

58

X

Official Statistics Continuum: Some History and Recent Methodological Novelties

59

Chapters from the history of the Hungarian Statistical Association

Éva Laczka

61

Financial health care indicators for Croatia according to the System of Health Accounts

methodology

Ana Ivičević Uhernik, Tanja Mišić

62

Measuring Hungarian agricultural productivity using two different methods

Judit Poór, Orsolya Tóth

63

Medical Worker Registry as a statistical instrument for collecting data on health care

workers in Croatia

Mario Trošelj, Željka Draušnik

64

Social Statistics Applications 65

Assessing the reliability of percentage above cut scores in monitoring tourist satisfaction

levels

Ivan Sever, Zrinka Marušić, Sanda Čorak

67

Croatian First Football League: Prediction of teams' ranking in the championship

Dušan Munđar, Diana Šimić

68

Economic and literacy factors in the diffusion of zero and the Hindu-Arabic numeral

system in the Mediterranean and Adriatic culture areas

Craig Molgaard, Tovah Foss

69

Impact of ICT and organizational readiness on innovations in hotel and travel agency

service industry: Preliminary research

Mirjana Pejic-Bach, Zrinka Marusic, Jovana Zoroja

70

Latent change variable models: Applications in personality and emotional intelligence

research

Vesna Buško

71

Linear versus double logarithmic cross-country regression: The influence of

entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness on real gross domestic product per capita

Anita Harmina, Ksenija Dumičić, Berislav Žmuk

72

Pattern recognition, evaluation and generalization of kinesiological phenomena from

heterogenous sample via method of partialization of variance

Igor Gruić

73

Qualitative and quantitative changes of Croatian forestry journals - Results of link and

correspondence analysis

Vesna Špac, Anamarija Jazbec

74

Statistical methods in American academic salary equity studies: The early 1970s

Amanda L. Golbeck

75

XI

Statistical methods of quality management in the development of improvement user's

satisfaction in public sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Senad Fazlović, Dino Kakeš

76

Tourism and environmental assets: Review of valuation studies in Western Balkans

countries

Zrinka Marušić, Berislav Žmuk

77

Appendix: List of Authors 79

Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia ISSN: 1849-9864 05-06 May 2016, Zagreb, Croatia

1

Plenary Speech Abstract


2


3

New Developments in Seasonal Adjustment

Ante Rozga University of Split, Faculty of Economics, Cvite Fiskovića 5, HR-21000 Split, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Well over the last century problem of seasonal adjustment has been of great interest both for

professional statisticians and users of statistical products. Seasonal adjustment procedures have

undergone substantial improvement and nowadays seem to be coming to be almost „perfect“

from the point of view of requirements for optimal seasonal adjustment, if something like that

is possible. Dealing with unobservable components of time series poses serious challenge for

statisticians and statistical agencies. There is no ultimate answer to this challenge. For many

decades ad-hoc methods of moving averages has been in wide use in official statistics. Problems

with these methods (Census I in particular) led to substantial improvement named X-11,

developed by U.S. Bureau of Census. With the implementation of X-11 worldwide still

remained problem of both ends of time series. Problem was solved by Statistics Canada with

the modified version named X-11-ARIMA. After that, Census Bureau again developed new

version, X-12-ARIMA with some further improvements. Model-based approach has not been

seriously developed for official seasonal adjustment until the end of last century.

TRAMO/SEATS method is completely parametric and it was introduced by Banco de España.

After that, Census Bureau incorporated parts of this model-based approach into newest version

named X-13ARIMA-SEATS, which is still under development. This method has not yet been

widely accepted around the world. As EU is regarded there is no official promotion one method

over another and the practice from one to another member state differs.

Keywords: JDemetra+, seasonal adjustment, TRAMO/SEATS, X-12-ARIMA, X-13ARIMA-

SEATS.

JEL code: C14, C18, C22, C53.


4


5

Special Session for Challenges of Official Statistics


6


7

A primer for the time series relational database built on Statistical

Data and Metadata eXchange

Goran Gruić Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange (SDMX), a standard for the exchange of statistical

data and metadata, is a convenient framework for dissemination of time series data, but at the

same time it causes implementation challenges for statistical institutions in the area of data

storing and preparation for analysis. The dominant technology for storing structured data is

relational database, conceptualized to recognize relations between stored informational items.

Transforming SDMX metadata into relational structures makes it possible to leverage the huge

amount of theoretical and practical knowledge in the areas of storing, connecting and accessing

the data. This paper aims to provide a primer for architecture of a system based on open source

technologies, able to create relational database structures from any SDMX domain, to load

SDMX data into created structures, to enable user to additionally describe and manipulate

loaded data, and finally, to export the data in a desired format.

Keywords: electronic data exchange, relational database, SDMX, statistical data and metadata

exchange.

JEL code: C82, C88.


8

Analysing daily time series: Adjusting seasonal and moving

holiday effects

Daniel Ollech Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

[email protected]

Abstract: The methods for seasonal adjustment of official data explicitly supported by Eurostat are X-

11 and SEATS. Both methods do not allow for adjustment of data with a higher than monthly

frequency, even though an increasing number of time series is available with higher periodicity.

Possible examples include exchange rates, online prices or the amount of Euro banknotes in

circulation. The aim of this paper is the development of a procedure for the adjustment of

periodically reoccurring systematic effects and the influence of moving holidays in time series

with daily observations. To this end, an STL based seasonal adjustment routine is combined with

a regression model with ARIMA errors for the estimation of calendar and outlier effects. Intra-

weekly, intra-monthly and intra-annual periodic movements are estimated and adjusted

successively. The procedure is evaluated empirically using a set of economic time series.

Keywords: daily time series, seasonality, seasonal adjustment, STL.

JEL code: C14, C22, C53.


9

Can public health registries directly impact the quality of life of

population?

Tomislav Benjak Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Vesna Štefančić Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Željka Draušnik Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Introduction: The Law for Employment of Persons with Disabilities (NN157/13) obliges

employer who employs at least 20 workers must employ 3% persons with disability. In order

to implement this norm, it was necessary to set up a database of employed persons with

disabilities and ensure control of set criteria according to the Regulation about Registry of

employed persons with disabilities (NN44/14, NN97/14) (Regulation). Aim: To describe how

the Registry of Persons with Disability became the central place for the control of criteria

established in the Regulation. Methods: According to the Law (NN64/01), the Registry collects

data from other evaluation sources (institutions), as defined in the Regulation, and they are

considered legally valid sources for proof of disability. The Regulation defines the percentage

of disability as the major criterion to measure whether the rule is applied, so it is necessary to

analyze every decision. As data are stored both on paper and digitally, the control is performed

by direct inspection of the decisions. Still it was necessary to devise a program that determines

whether the electronic records satisfy the criteria. Results: The CIPH has received 20.345

applications for review of persons whom their employers wish to register as workers with

disability. 13.110 persons with disabilities fulfil criteria. Conclusion: The Registry plays

important role in implementing regulation and ensuring the employment of 13.110 persons with

disabilities. This points out the fact that public health registries are much more than just

statistical tools, they are, in fact direct implementation tools.

Keywords: employment, persons with disabilities, registry.

JEL code: E24.


10

Implementation of Quality Management and Documentation

System in Croatian Bureau of Statistics

Mario Gavrić Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Ilica 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to describe implementation of quality management system in

Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and also establishment of quality documentation system of

CBS’s statistical processes and products. The CBS adopted the Total Quality Management

approach as the general model for quality management, quality assessment and quality

improvement. Regarding quality documentation system, database of quality information

became a key tool for quality assessment, quality documentation and quality reporting for CBS

surveys in last two years (2014-2015). The database contains an exhaustive list of quality

information, which is based on widely accepted European Statistical System structures or

quality reporting and it is divided in two parts: numerical information (quality indicators) and

descriptive (textual) information. The CBS has also decided to implement Generic Statistical

Business Process Model for documenting statistical processes, because it exhaustively

describes and defines a set of business processes needed to produce official statistics.

Keywords: quality database, quality documentation, quality management, quality reporting.

JEL code: L15.


11

Importance of the Cooperation Agreement in the Compilation of

Government Finance Statistics in Croatia

Davor Galinec Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Jadranka Vuglar Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Compilation of government finance statistics (GFS) is very challenging for statisticians because

of several different statistical institutions involved (the national statistical institute, the central

bank and the ministry of finance). In order to increase the efficiency of the compilation process

and to determine division of responsibilities, modes of mutual cooperation and data exchange

flows, the key stakeholders in the process usually sign a legal act (Memorandum of

Understanding or Cooperation Agreement). The first Cooperation Agreement (CA) in the GFS

area between the NSI (CBS), the NCB (CNB) and the MF was signed in 2007. During the Euro

area crisis, the Eurostat introduced data quality management (DQM) procedures regarding GFS.

As a consequence, a revised CA was signed in 2013. The main aim of the paper is to provide

overview of changes incorporated in the Croatian CA 2013 compared with the previous one

and to evaluate assessments of changes on the overall compilation process.

Keywords: contracts, data collection, fiscal policy, official statistics.

JEL code: K12, C80, E62.


12

Is the targeting of social transfers in Bosnia and Herzegovina

getting better? Evidence from household budget surveys

Rabija Somun-Kapetanović School of Economics and Business, Trg oslobođenja – Alija Izetbegović 1, 71000 Sarajevo,

Bosnia and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Edin Šabanović Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zelenih beretki 26, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia

and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Abstract:

Targeting of social transfers in every country is a means of increasing the effectiveness of the

distribution of assistance to the poor population in the framework of the available, and usually

limited, budgets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent situation regarding poverty

and targeting of social assistance and to compare it with the situation a decade ago in order to

record changes. Furthermore, objectives of the paper are to renew demands for the introduction

of new methods of targeting social benefits and to promote evidence-based decision making.

The analysis will be done on data from the same statistical surveys and will be performed using

statistical methods of poverty analysis and testing of statistical hypothesis. The main message

of this analysis will point out that the existing right-based approach in targeting social funds is

still ineffective and leads to a waste of resources.

Keywords: policy, poor, targeting, transfers.

JEL code: I32, I38.


13

Statistical data processing – new approaches at Statistical Office

of the Republic of Slovenia

Rudi Seljak Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Litostrojska 54, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Jerneja Pikelj Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Litostrojska 54, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Kaja Malešič Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Litostrojska 54, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Abstract:

In recent years the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (hereinafter SURS) has put a

lot of effort into the re-designing of its statistical process organisation. The main goal was to

gradually replace the classical stove-pipe oriented production system with more integrated

systems based on generic software solutions. For this purpose a general software application

for data processing was developed. It is built on the modular approach, meaning that we are

gradually developing generic solutions for the different parts of the statistical process. So far,

the following processes have been ‘covered’: data validation, data editing and imputation,

aggregation, tabulation, standard error estimation, disclosure control, and calculation of quality

indicators. The paper presents the general concepts of the application and its implementation in

the statistical surveys. A part of the paper is devoted to the consideration of what the

introduction of such a general tool means for the strategic changes in the design of the statistical

production.

Keywords: generic applications, metadata driven systems, process metadata, statistical

software.

JEL code: C10, C18, C80, C88.


14

The challenges of estimating monthly national accounts data in

Croatia

Petar Sorić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6,

HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Mirjana Čižmešija Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6,


[email protected]

Ivana Lolić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6,


[email protected]

Abstract:

This paper is a pioneer attempt of estimating monthly GDP data in Croatia. More specifically,

the authors employ six different temporal disaggregation methods using five Business and

Consumer Survey (BCS) composite indicators as regressors. The obtained results seem to

confirm that the Fernandez and Litterman methods are superior to the Chow and Lin approach.

Not less important, the results demonstrate that BCS represent a valuable source of

macroeconomic information. The obtained monthly version of GDP cyclically follows its

quarterly counterpart. This study unveils some new possibilities of regularly publishing

monthly national accounts data in Croatia. This would bring substantial methodological

modernisation to the Croatian official statistics, as well as it would largely help the researchers

to more easily and more accurately date the business cycle peaks and troughs. The final positive

effect for economic professionals and the interested public would be undisputable.

Keywords: Business and Consumer Surveys, national accounts, temporal disaggregation.

JEL code: C82, E01, P44.

Acknowledgement:

This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project No.

3858.


15

Use of administrative data for statistical purposes – challenges

and perspectives in use of administrative data in business statistics

of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Rabija Somun – Kapetanović The School of Economics and Business in Sarajevo, Trg oslobođenja 1, 71000 Sarajevo,


[email protected]

Emina Resić The School of Economics and Business in Sarajevo, Trg oslobođenja 1,

71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Fahir Kanlić Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zelenih beretki 26,

71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Abstract:

Besides their primary purpose, administrative data are also used by National Statistical

Institutes (NSIs) in regular production of official statistics. They also contribute to the

improvement of statistical production processes, statistical quality and cost-effectiveness.

However, the differences in definitions, inconsistencies related to reporting units, activities of

reporting units and other quality concerns should be examined. The aim of this paper is to show

the impact of using administrative data for statistical purposes, to show the main differences

between administrative and survey data and to list their advantages and disadvantages through

quality principles. A special focus of this paper will be the overview of available administrative

sources in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) which can be used for statistical purposes,

particularly in producing business statistics taking into account complex administrative

structure of BiH. The challenges and perspectives for future use of administrative data in

business statistics in BiH will also be described through practical examples.

Keyword: administrative data, classification, data quality, response burden.

JEL codes: C81, C83, C49, H21.


16


17

Special Session for Young Statisticians


18


19

Alternative Benefit-of-the-Doubt approach to the Composite I-

distance Indicator methodology: The case of QS World University

Rankings by Subject

Milica Maricic University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade,

Serbia

[email protected]

Milica Bulajic University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Jove Ilica 154,

11000 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

Zoran Radojicic University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Jove Ilica 154,


[email protected]

Veljko Jeremic University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Jove Ilica 154,


[email protected]

Abstract: Composite indicators have become a valuable asset for stakeholders as they provide ranks of

entities and information upon which decisions are made. However, certain questions about their

development procedure have been recently raised, especially about the weighting process. To

tackle the observed issue, herein we propose a new multivariate approach to defining weights.

Namely, the model based on the Data Envelopment Analysis, the Benefit-of-the-Doubt, has

been used with great success in the process of composite indicator development. On the other

hand, the Composite I-distance Indicator (CIDI) methodology stands out as an impartial method

for assigning weights to indicators. Combining these two approaches new weights which

maximize the value of the composite indicator can be proposed. As a case study we analysed

the Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Rankings by Subject in the field of Statistics

& Operational Research. The obtained results, which are based on the data-driven weights, can

provide new insights on the nature of the observed ranking. The approach presented here might

provoke further research on the topic of composite indicator weights and on the university

rankings by subject.

Keywords: Benefit-of-Doubt, CIDI method, statistics and operational research, university

rankings by subject.

JEL code: C44, C61, I23, I28.


20

Analysis of effective motivation factors among members on entry

in agricultural cooperatives

Aleksandar Nedanov University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Vladimir Jerebić Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Lavoslav Čaklović University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics,


[email protected]

Abstract:

This study presents analysis of effective motivation factors among members on entry in

agricultural cooperatives based on the field research with sample size of 202 members. Using

correspondence analysis (CA) as a multivariate statistical method for visualisation of

categorical data we discovered a pattern of association between motivational factors.

Motivational factors are divided into two groups of social and economic factors while economic

factors such as safe product placement and production cost reduction proved to be the most

important motivation factor on entry in agricultural cooperatives. Further, we recoded data

using the recording scheme "doubling of ratings" and showed how ranking of economical

motivational factors depends on type of membership, production sector, duration of

participation in agricultural production or levels of revenue. Respondents with full ownership

rights who work in agricultural production less than five years and achieved small amount of

incomes from their production are more inclined for choosing a better market positioning for

their agricultural product. Respondents with higher amount of income from agricultural

production or business collaboration with the cooperatives are more likely to choose reducing

costs for their own production, unlike the respondents with less amount of income who like to

prefer better market positioning for their product. Inside the group of social motives, the

opportunities for developing professional skills and exchanging useful information among

members received the highest score from each respondent. However, on the level of all

motivational indicators with all other social indicators does not have an important significance

for entering the cooperative.

Keywords: cooperatives, correspondence analysis, Croatia, motivation.

JEL code: Q13.


21

The actuarial projection method for pension fund’s dependency

ratio in case of Pension and Disability Insurance Fund of Republic

of Srpska

Nikolina Bošnjak Faculty of Economics, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9,

00161 Rome, Italy

[email protected]

Abstract:

The pension plan’s sustainability is often addressed by academics, policymakers and

international institutions. There is a whole set of indicators that are taken in consideration when

sustainability of pension plan is analyzed. When we consider Pay As You Go pension systems

sustainability we usually relate to dependency ratio. In this paper we analyze the movement of

dependency ratio of Pension and Disability Insurance Fund of Republic of Srpska. In the

analysis we used cross section data on total number of pensioners and employees. We made

projections for the next 50 years of total number of pensioners and employed persons in

Republic of Srpska. Having in mind limitations of these projections, given that they lie on

assumption that probabilities relevant for their calculation stay unchanged throughout the whole

observed period, we can derive some important conclusions regarding the dependency ratio

movement in future and pressures it will pose to the pension fund of Republic of Srpska.

Keywords: actuarial projection method, dependency ratio projections, pension fund

sustainability.

JEL code: J11, J21, J26.


22

The time series modelling of hourly electrical energy net position

Eva Demšar University of Ljubljana, Faculty of electrical engineering, Tržaška cesta 25,

SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Damijana Kastelec University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical faculty, Jamnikarjeva ulica 101,


[email protected]

Abstract:

The hourly time series of differences between import and export of electrical energy for

Germany and Austria have been studied. Difference of import and export is also called net

position, and it is one of the most important terms in world trade of electrical energy. Import

and export of electrical energy in general depend on its price and its consumption and

production inside the country and in the neighbouring countries. All this data depends also on

the time of the day, day of the week and time of the year. The objective of our research is short

term forecast of net position. Analysed data consists of the hourly values of net position and

several variables describing the amounts of different kinds of electricity production and

consumption in Germany and neighbouring countries for the period between 05.24.2013 and

08.31.2014. The time series of hourly net position was modelled first as a seasonal

autoregressive integrated moving average process (ARIMA), and second as an autoregressive

integrated moving average with explanatory variables process (ARIMAX). Different time

intervals of the data were considered as training sets, first the whole year period and next also

smaller three-month time periods containing data for seasons. The time series simulation was

used for evaluation of the models. The accuracy of the forecasts of different models was

analysed and compared.

Keywords: ARIMA, ARIMAX, electrical energy, net position.

JEL code: C22.


23

Advances in Statistical Methods and Methodology


24


25

Comparing two partitions obtained on different sets of units

Marjan Cugmas University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Social Science, Kardeljeva pl. 5,


[email protected]

Anuška Ferligoj University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Social Science, Kardeljeva pl. 5,


[email protected]

Abstract:

Rand Index (Rand 1971) is used to compare two partitions obtained on the same sets of units,

where merging and splitting of clusters are seen as factors which lower the value of the index

(the index can take the value on the interval between 0 and 1 where higher value indicates more

similar partitions). In some research problems, the splitting and merging of clusters have to be

considered as factors with different effects on the value of an index. In such cases one of the

Wallace indices can be used (Wallace 1983). Here only the merging or only the splitting of

groups lowers the value of an index. The presentation addresses the case when two partitions

are obtained on two different sets of units with a non-empty intersection (e.g., when the sets of

units are obtained in two different time points). In such cases the in-coming and out-going units

are usually present and considered as factors which indicates lower level of stability (or

similarity) of two partitions. Therefore, the two modified Rand indices and two Wallace indices

are presented along with the correction for chance, which enables to compare the values of

indices obtained on different partitions.

Keywords: comparing partitions, non-equal sets, Rand index, Wallace index.



26

Estimation of differential entropy

Zagorka Lozanov-Crvenković Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad,

Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia

[email protected]

Emilija Nikolić-Đorić Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agriculture,

University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia

[email protected]

Abstract:

There are two different ways to estimate the differential entropy. The first one is parametric,

based on plugging maximum likelihood estimates of the distribution parameters into the exact

differential entropy formula. The second one is nonparametric, based on discretization of a

random variable and calculating Shannon entropy. The main problem in both approaches to

estimation of the differential entropy is finite sample bias. We determine the level of bias for

different estimators. For several well known distributions we generate a thousand samples for

each of the sample sizes 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, and calculate the differential entropy estimates

using two different approaches. Using these data, we investigate the distribution of differential

entropy estimators. In order to compare the performances of applied procedures for estimation,

we compare the distribution of differential entropy estimators with respect to mean value,

variance, kurtosis, skewness, bias and mean squared error.

Keywords: bias, differential entropy, MLE, Shannon entropy.

JEL code: C13.

Acknowledgement:

This paper was realized as a part of the Projects No.43007 and No.174019 financed by the

Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, and

project No. 114-451-3048/201-01 supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and

Technological Development of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina.


27

European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), 2nd wave in Croatia

Vlasta Dečković-Vukres Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Ana Ivičević Uhernik Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Sandra Mihel Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Croatian Institute of Public Health in cooperation with Ministry of Health and Croatian Bureau

of Statistics conducted European Health Interview Survey - the second wave (EHIS 2), in 2014

and 2015. EHIS is standardized health survey by Eurostat and consists of four modules:

demographic and socio-economic indicators, self-assessment of health status, use of health care

and determinants of health. The questionnaire was developed for face-to-face model in paper

form (PAPI). EHIS 2 in Croatia was conducted on a two-stage stratified sample of 3,140

households. The sample was based on data from the Census of Population, Households and

Dwellings in 2011. For methodological reasons, persons living in collective households

(homes, boarding schools, convents, hospitals, etc.) were not included in the sample, and the

results are based on the population living in private households. Within each household, all

individuals who were at least 15 years of age at the time of the survey were interviewed. By

conducting a survey on a representative sample, an insight into health status, use of health care

and determinants of health of the population older than 15 years, will be obtained. The survey

results will be used for planning and evaluation activities in the field of health promotion,

prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and health care organization. The data will

be comparable with regard to age, sex, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, which

is currently not available from routine health statistics.

Keywords: EHIS, health, interview survey.

JEL code: I12.


28

Evaluation of mean imputation method appropriateness in

business surveys: Case of statistical methods use survey in

Croatian enterprises

Berislav Žmuk Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,

Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The missing data problem is quite common in business surveys. In order to solve this problem,

researchers can use different imputation methods. In this paper the mean imputation method is

observed because of its very easy implementation. The four variables from business survey on

statistical methods use in Croatian enterprises are used to test if mean imputation method results

are satisfactory accurate in estimation of sample means or not. Full data sets of four observed

variables are used to simulate five different missing data levels. The analysis has shown that,

despite of differences in statistical characteristics of data distributions between observed

variables, there was no statistically significant difference at any usually used significance level

between real sample means and calculated sample means after conducted imputations. This

research confirmed usefulness of the mean imputation method in business surveys with the

purpose to make data manipulation easier.

Keywords: business web survey, Croatian enterprises, mean imputation method, statistical

methods use.

JEL code: C15, C83.

Acknowledgement:

This work has been partially supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project

STatistical Modelling for REspoNse to Crisis and Economic GrowTH in WeStern Balkan

Countries -STRENGTHS (No.: IP 2013-9402).


29

On some properties of the coefficient of determination

Janez Stare University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Medicine, Vrazov trg 2, SI-1104 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Abstract:

There is hardly a statistic which would have been criticized more than R2. And there is certainly

no statistic which would have been falsely criticized more than R2. Most of the criticism has

not survived the test of time, and has more or less disappeared into oblivion, but one remains:

the fact that R2 depends on distribution of covariates is seen as a prohibitive property by many.

And then there is a persisting misunderstanding which makes people use R2 for a purpose for

which it is not to be used -- measuring goodness of fit. In this talk I will briefly revisit the

criticism directed towards R2 and explain the falseness of the accusations, and then focus on

the two points, mentioned above. My message is: a) dependence on the distribution of

covariates is not a property, specific to R2, and b) R2 is not a measure of goodness of fit.

Keywords: coefficient of determination, goodness of fit, regression.

JEL code: C18.


30

The ranking of EU countries based on indicators of the EU

Sustainable Development Strategy

Svjetlana Janković Šoja Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

Dana Bucalo Jelić Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

Radojka Maletić Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Sustainable development strategy is very complex and contains a large number of indicators.

One of the statistical methods that can be used for this problem is I-distance method. It was

created as a need to rank countries according to the level of socio-economic development.

Moreover, the problem was how to take advantage of all the indicators to calculate a synthetic

indicator that will represent the rank. I-distance method in this paper is used for the ranking of

18 countries of the European Union based on ten indicators that have been selected in

accordance with the EU Sustainable Development Strategy. The headline indicators taken from

the following areas are: socio-economic development, sustainable consumption and production,

social inclusion, demographic changes, public health, climate change and energy, sustainable

transport, global partnership. Analyzing the initial set of indicators and their correlation

coefficients with the obtained I-distance values, were found to the most important indicators.

Keywords: European Union countries, I-distance, indicators of sustainable development,

ranking.

JEL code: C38, F69, I31.

Acknowledgement:

This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technological Development: “Rural

Labour Market and Rural Economy of Serbia – Income Diversification as a Toll to Overcome

Rural Poverty”.

mailto:[email protected]


31

Biometrics in Action


32


33

Assessing technical efficiency and exploring non-discretionary

factors with Data Envelopment Analysis and Tobit regression

Vasja Leban University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest

Resources, Ljubljana, Večna pot 83, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Donald G. Hodges University of Tennessee, Department of Forestry, Wildlife and Fisheries, 274 Ellington Plant

Sciences, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, United States of America

[email protected]

Lidija Zadnik Stirn University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest


[email protected]

Janez Krč University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest


[email protected]

Špela Pezdevšek Malovrh University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest


[email protected]

Abstract:

The recent global economic downturn and resulting fiscal crisis has increased pressure on

governments and public agencies to improve the efficiency with which public financial

resources are utilized. The efficiency of an organization most often is measured as the ratio

between organizational outputs and the inputs employed, most notably discretionary variables

that managers can control. Inputs are elementary components for work and essential to

organizational activities, and “produce” outputs that reflect organizational aims. Beyond the

decision maker’s discretionary power, non-discretionary factors such as stakeholder and

socioeconomic attributes, environmental conditions, and diversity of public services

beneficiaries affect efficiency. Examining the effects of these non-discretionary factors

enhances our understanding of efficiency scores and allows organizations to change with

shifting parameters. The objective of this study was to assess the technical efficiency of the

Slovenia Forest Service – a national public forestry service – and to explore the effects of non-

discretionary factors on efficiency. A two-phase quantitative research design was utilized: (1)

analysis of technical efficiency of Service activities for the last decade with Data Envelopment

Analysis, and (2) analysis of non-discretionary factors that affect efficiency with Tobit

regression. The results reveal that technical efficiency in the last decade averaged 88%, with


34

more than 35% of the Regional Units being efficient. The Tobit analysis demonstrated that

socio-economic factors contributed more to efficiency scores than other natural factors,

indicating the need to strengthen social and human capital to gain additional improvements in

efficiency.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, forestry sector, mixed methods approach, Tobit

regression.

JEL code: C10, H21, H83.


35

Comparison of morphological and genetic characterization in

similarity analysis of vine grape cultivars of Herzegovina

Zrinka Knezović Faculty of Agriculture and Food Technology, University of Mostar, Biskupa Čule bb,

88000 Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Ana Mandić Faculty of Agriculture and Food Technology, University of Mostar, Biskupa Čule bb, 88000

Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina

[email protected]

Nikica Perić Faculty of Agriculture and Food Technology, University of Mostar, Biskupa Čule bb, 88000


Jure Beljo Faculty of Agriculture and Food Technology, University of Mostar, Biskupa Čule bb, 88000


[email protected]

Maja Žulj Mihaljević

Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zagreb, Svetošimunska cesta 25, HR-10000 Zagreb,

Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera) is one of the most important agricultural crops in Herzegovina. Origin

of Herzegovinian varieties is mostly unexplored. Grapevine cultivars today are the result of

several factors with mostly grown autochthonous ones. Considering the small number of studies

on comparison of different methods used for similarities and relatedness analyses of grapevine

germplasm, it was interesting to assess use of morphological characterization with molecular

markers in identification of cultivars in Herzegovina. Research included the most autochtonous

cultivars of Herzegovina: Žilavka, Bena, Krkošija, Dobrogostina, Pošip bijeli, Zložder, Blatina,

Trnjak, Pošip crni i Šljiva crna. The similarity analysis with morphological characterisation was

based on OIV descriptors of shoots, leaves, bunches and berries. Cultivars were genotyped by

nine SSR markers and genetic similarity were determinated. Methods were then compared.

Similarities coefficients based on ampelographic and genetic analysis differ from each other.

For reliable and comprehensive evaluation of grapevine varieties both ampelographic and

genetic identification should be used.

Keywords: ampelography, cultivar, similarity coefficient, SSR.

JEL code: C38.


36

Improved protein inference from tandem mass spectrometry data

Susmita Datta University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America

[email protected]

Abstract:

Identifying proteomic biomarkers from bodily fluids for complex diseases such as cancer is an

active area of research. Mass spectrometry is a useful tool for this purpose. However, the

process demands identification of proteins from proteomic spectra. Protein identification using

tandem mass spectrometry MS/MS data continues to be an important area of research. Most of

the existing algorithms in this area consist of the two-step procedure of identifying the peptides

first followed by that of the proteins. In this setup, the interdependence of peptides and proteins

are neglected resulting relatively inaccurate protein identification. In this research we have

developed a novel one step protein identification procedure using a nested hierarchical Bayesian

model. Exploiting the fact that the complete conditionals of the proposed joint model are

tractable, we propose and implement a Gibbs sampling scheme for full posterior inference. This

is, to the best of our knowledge, the first implementation of a full posterior inference scheme

in this problem. It provides simultaneous uncertainty measures associated with protein

detection in terms of posterior probabilities. The results from data analysis point towards a high

sensitivity and specificity of our proposed approach.

Keywords: biomarker, nested hierarchical Bayesian model, peptide, proteomics.



37

Marginal regression models for clustered count data based on

zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution with

applications

Somnath Datta University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America

[email protected]

Hyoyoung Choo-Wosoba University of Louisville, Louisville, United States of America

[email protected]

Steven Levy University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States of America

[email protected]

Abstract:

Community water fluoridation is an important public health measure to prevent dental caries,

but it continues to be somewhat controversial. The Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS) is a longitudinal

study on a cohort of Iowa children that began in 1991. The main purposes of this study

(http://www.dentistry.uiowa.edu/preventive-fluoride-study) were to quantify fluoride

exposures from both dietary and non-dietary sources and to associate longitudinal fluoride

exposures with dental fluorosis (spots on teeth) and dental caries (cavities). We analyze a subset

of the IFS data by a marginal regression model with a zero-inflated version of the Conway-

Maxwell-Poisson distribution for count data exhibiting excessive zeros and a wide range of

dispersion patterns. In general, we introduce two estimation methods for fitting a ZICMP

marginal regression model. Finite sample behaviors of the estimators and the resulting

confidence intervals are studied using extensive simulation studies. We apply our

methodologies to the dental caries data. Our novel modeling incorporating zero inflation,

clustering and overdispersion sheds some new light on the effect of community water

fluoridation and other factors. We also include a second application of our methodology to a

genomic (next generation sequencing) dataset that exhibits underdispersion.

Keywords: bootstrap, caries data, generalized estimating equation, generalized linear model.

JEL code: C18.


38


39

Econometrics and Economics Applications


40


41

A micro data approach to the identification of financial

constraints in Croatia

Velimir Šonje Arhivanalitika, Ivana Kukuljevića 32, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Jasena Torma Kukavčić Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Branimirova 19, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Taking a random sample of more than 3 500 firms from the business surveys in the period from

Q3 2008 until Q2 2015, we have investigated do good companies face financial constraints?

Using panel regression approach we have controlled for various company characteristics (e.g.

the firms’ assessment of their current business situation and their volume of orders) since it is

expected that companies facing business difficulties face stronger financial constraints. We also

controlled for a specific sector in which companies operate. Goal was to identify additional or

structural financial constraints which are present after control for company characteristics and

the sector as well as interest rate variations. Analyses showed that additional financial

constraints were present during the years of economic crisis but have completely weakened

after 2013. During the time when additional financial constraints were present, we identified

that it was largely due to the changes in interest rates.

Keywords: business surveys, financial constraints, loan supply and demand, nonlinear binary

outcome panel data models.

JEL code: C23, E44, E51, G21.


42

An optimisation method for iterative motif scanning

Maja Zagorščak Department of Biotechnology and Systems Biology, National Institute of Biology,

Večna pot 111, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

[email protected]

Maja Cigula Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Bijenička cesta 30, HR-10000 Zagreb,

Croatia

[email protected]

Pavle Goldstein Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Bijenička cesta 30, HR-10000 Zagreb,

Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Motifs are short protein substrings that are characterized by a specific mutation pattern. They

are sometimes considered as basic units of molecular evolution, so their detection and

description are of great importance. In this note, we present a fast iterative motif scanning

method, that is, a procedure that detects all variations of a given string in a large set of protein

sequences. The method uses simple string-searching algorithms and is based on a statistical

analysis of each iteration. The method is tested on several well-known data-sets.

Keywords: extreme value distribution, iterative model optimization, sequence motif.

JEL code: C69.


43

Cumulative prospect evaluation with the moving reference point

Lavoslav Čaklović University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics,


[email protected]

Doris Božović Allianz Zagreb d.d., HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Prospect is a lottery with the reference point which may be evaluated according to the

Cumulative Prospect Theory using the ideas of Quiggin (1982) and Yari (1986). If the prospect

is a time series, this approach is questionable because there is not obvious how to choose the

reference point and moreover, the probabilities of the lottery are unknown. One idea is to

introduce 'dynamical referencing' by changing the reference point along the time series. The

first step is to make a prospect from time series as a sequence of consecutive gains (looses)

which are categorized, and the corresponding probabilities are the probabilities of those

category. Then we set the reference value of such lottery to zero to obtain the prospect. As an

illustration of this approach we shall compare the cumulative prospect values for the shares of

the companies: IBM, Western Digital and Apple in the period from 2010/01/03 to 2011/01/03

using the probability deformation according to Prelec (1998) and the original utility given by

Kahneman and Tversky (1992). Some interesting properties of the 'dynamical referencing' and

simulations will be given as well.

Keywords: Cumulative Prospect Theory, dynamical referencing.

JEL code: D03, D81.


44

Differences in Croatian regional labour market adjustment

mechanisms

Nataša Erjavec Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Saša Jakšić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Abstract:

The paper investigates the importance of various macroeconomic factors that influence the

regional unemployment in two separate groups of Croatian counties: a lower and a higher

unemployment group for the period from 2004 to 2012. Based on the estimated panel models,

for each group the most important factors are identified. These factors, which indicate the

relative importance of different regional labour market adjustment mechanisms, are then

compared to reveal the differences between the groups.

Keywords: Croatia, panel model, regional unemployment.

JEL code: R10, R23, J60.

Acknowledgement:

This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project

number UIP-2014-09-4096.


45

Financial literacy and financial successfulness: How do Croatian

women fare?

Dajana Barbić Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Vlasta Bahovec Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Irena Palić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Abstract: Women often experience insufficient levels of accumulated savings in the retirement and

according to previous empirical research women are more exposed to the risk of financial

problems, than men. According to the results of empirical researches, there is a general

consensus on the lower level of financial literacy, financial knowledge and financial

performance of women. This paper examines the level of financial literacy of women living in

Croatia and analyses the effect of financial literacy on financial successfulness depending on

the gender. In order to analyze the moderation effect of gender in the relationship between

financial literacy and financial successfulness, ANOVA two-way analysis is used in this

research. The conducted research has important implications for policy and for programs aimed

at fostering financial security of women.

Key words: financial literacy, financial successfulness, multivariate statistical methods,

women.

JEL code: C12, D14, G21, J16.

Acknowledgement:

This work has been fully supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project




46

Looking for statistical twins – propensity score matching as a tool

for measuring the effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies

implemented by Croatian Employment Service

Michał Kotnarowski Institute of Political Studies, Polish Academy of Sciences, Polna 18/20,

00-625, Warsaw, Poland

[email protected]

Gordan Beraković IPSOS, Budmanijeva 1, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Branka Hodak IPSOS, Budmanijeva 1, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Josip Ivišić IPSOS, Budmanijeva 1, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Marino Šeparović IPSOS, Budmanijeva 1, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The paper presents results of an application of propensity score matching technique for

measuring the net effect of Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) implemented on Croatian

labour market. Analyses were conducted on the unique dataset of all the people registered as

unemployed in Croatia between 2010 and 2013. We use a quasi-experimental design of

analyses, which also could be called analysis of counterfactual states. For each person subjected

to ALMP measure, we selected his/her statistical twin among people not subjected to a measure.

Statistical twins were selected on the basis of the probability of being subjected to a measure,

estimated by logistic regression model. In this model, a dependent variable was participation in

ALMP and independent variables were such variables, which simultaneously were (1)

predictors of participation in ALMP and (2) predictors of a success of the intervention. By the

success of the intervention, we mean being employed twelve months after the end of the

interventions. According to quasi-experimental terminology, a group of people subjected to

intervention can be called treated group, and their selected counterparts can be called control

group. Net effects of the ALMP were calculated as a comparison of probabilities of being

employed twelve months after the end of the intervention between treated and control groups.

Keywords: active labour market policies, net effect of the intervention, propensity score

matching, quasi-experimental design.


47

JEL code: C19, C99, J6, J64.

Acknowledgement:

Presented results are financed by European Social Fund (2007-2013) as a part of wider

evaluation study conducted for the Croatian Employment Service and are property of

aforementioned organization.


48

Measuring and ranking social preferences of investment project

alternatives using particular multivariate methodology

Lidija Zadnik Stirn University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Jamnikarjeva ulica 101,


[email protected]

Abstract:

Sustainable development and investment projects which may be implemented to environmental

systems reveal different alternatives. Consequently, we are faced with decision process in

which the decisions have to be determined, evaluated and finally ranked according to the goals

of the projects and preferences of the end-users. Incorporation of local actors’ (residents,

visitors, etc., i.e., representatives of various groups who benefit or loose from the project

undertaken in their area) in the evaluation (decision) process is one of the most important goals

when measuring social consequences of the implemented projects. To provide social

assessment of viable management options (alternatives) within selected projects society

(public) formulates the choices/preferences by fulfilling the questionnaire, which addresses

goals of the alternatives of the project and local characteristics related to the particular project.

The data gathered from interviews with stakeholders (public) is analyzed by statistical and

mathematical methods. The combination of multivariate analysis (factor analysis) and multi-

criteria methods (group AHP) has proven to be effective in evaluating environmental

management decisions since it offers the inclusion of different opinions, views, preferences and

competing programs of several stakeholders involved in decision making problem. The

described methodology is illustrated by an investment into urban forest where three possible

alternatives are considered and evaluated.

Keywords: environment, investment projects, decision making, multivariate and multi-criteria

methods.

JEL code: C30, C38, C60, M21.


49

Modelling housing wealth effect on personal consumption in

selected EU countries

Anita Čeh Časni Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Abstract:

This study examines the long-run and the short-run relationship between private consumption,

housing wealth, and income. In order to asses this relationship empirically the pooled mean

group estimator of dynamic heterogeneous panel data on the sample of 16 selected European

countries was used. Empirical estimates support the existence of the long-run and the short-run

housing wealth effect in analyzed countries. Namely, elasticity of real private consumption to

changes in real disposable income is 0.34, while the elasticity of consumption to changes in

real housing wealth is 0.14. This elasticity is positive and statistically significant and confirms

the research hypothesis of this paper of statistically significant and positive long-term

relationship between housing wealth and private consumption in the analyzed countries.

Keywords: EU countries, housing wealth effect, personal consumption, pooled mean group

estimator.

JEL code: E21, C33, C51.

Acknowledgement:





50

Multivariate analysis of human capital investments and national

welfare in EU countries

Snježana Pivac University of Split – Faculty of Economics, Cvite Fiskovića 5, HR-21000 Split, Croatia

[email protected]

Željana Aljinović Barać University of Split – Faculty of Economics, Cvite Fiskovića 5, HR-21000 Split, Croatia

[email protected]

Ivana Tadić University of Split – Faculty of Economics, Cvite Fiskovića 5, HR-21000 Split, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Human capital consists of people who work in organisation and are recognised as creators of

organisational success. Nowadays, human capital is also recognised as the most important

determinant of national development as well as the key stimulus of economic growth. The

purpose of this research is to explore the contribution of human capital investments in human

capital intensive industries to the national welfare through the growth of gross domestic product

and gross national income as well as unemployment reduction in 28 European Union countries.

Verification of empirical evidence is provided through the sample of approximately 12,000

active companies in year 2014. The analysis is done using multivariate k-means cluster method

and appropriate nonparametric tests to examine statistical significance in differentiation

between observed countries. Obtained results suggest that countries with greater level of human

capital investments are wealthier, i.e. have higher gross national income, higher gross domestic

product and lower unemployment rate.

Keywords: European Union countries, human capital investments, multivariate analysis,

nonparametric statistics.

JEL code: C38, C12, M12.


51

Multivariate statistical methods as a tool of industry financial

analysis: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina construction

industry

Emina Resić School of Economics and Business, Trg oslobođenja – Alija Izetbegović 1, 71000 Sarajevo,


[email protected]

Jasmina Mangafić School of Economics and Business, Trg oslobođenja – Alija Izetbegović 1, 71000 Sarajevo,


[email protected]

Tunjo Perić Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Abstract:

There are over 50 financial ratios available for industry ratio analysis and some are more

important than the others for different industries. Very often we have a situation that a

performance seem to be excellent according to one ratio, but poor to another ratio. Therefore,

we need to identify the smaller set of ratios to be used for industry financial analysis. The

objective of this paper is to examine the use of multivariate statistical methods in financial ratios

analysis in order to reduce the number of ratios and to select optimal ones as a base for

construction of a synthetic general index. Empirical research covers BiH companies from the

construction industry for the period from 2003 to 2012. The study shows that multivariate

methods may be a useful tool for analysing the relation between financial ratios, as for reduction

of the number of ratios required for assessing industry financial performance.

Keywords: financial ratios, multivariate statistics.

JEL classification: C38, G32.

Acknowledgment:

This work has been fully supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project Statistical

Modelling for Response to Crisis and Economic Growth in Western Balkan Countries -

STRENGTHS (No.: IP 2013-9402).


52

Technical efficiency of banks in Croatia

Mario Bambulović Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Ivan Huljak Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

We contribute to the existing literature on bank efficiency by using Data Envelopment Analysis

to calculate technical efficiency of Croatian banks by looking for technical improvements of

their production from three different perspectives: input, output and hyperbolic. On a sample

of banks operating in Croatia between 1994 and 2015 we show that larger, foreign owned

institutions are on average more technically efficient. Given that the results of research on bank

efficiency in Croatia were inconclusive so far we explain why the results should be carefully

compared between parametric and non-parametric efficiency calculations. Finally, we suggest

that further research on this topic is clearly needed because an efficient banking sector is the

key to attaining the economic prosperity of every country and DEA based frontier analysis gives

us better insight not only in the state of banking practices but also quantifies realistic production

possibilities of banks.

Keywords: banks, Croatia, data envelopment analysis, technical efficiency.

JEL: C14, D02, D24.

Acknowledgment: This work has been partially supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project

Statistical Modelling for Response to Crisis and Economic Growth in Western Balkan


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of Croatian National

Bank.


53

The analysis of banking sector assets concentration measures in

Croatia from 2003 to 2014

Irena Palić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Ksenija Dumičić Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb,


[email protected]

Maja Čurković Croatian National Bank, Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract: The subject of the research is measuring the concentration of total assets of banks in Croatia for

period 2003-2014. The objective of this paper is to present and analyze the changes that have

occurred and explain their impact on economic developments. The data used to calculate the

concentration of the Croatian banking sector from 2003 to 2014 refers to individual data on the

total assets of banks. The following indices have been used: Entropy index, Exponential index,

Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Gini coefficient, Lorenz curve, concentration ratios, Hall-

Tideman index and Rosenbluth index. The results of the conducted analysis show the increased

concentration in selected period. The concentration was affected by the reduction in the number

of banks because of fail or consolidation, as well as strengthening of smaller banks. However,

despite this increase, the concentration is for now within permitted limits and there are still no

negative effects on the market and its participants.

Keywords: measures of concentration, Lorenz curve, banking sector, banking competition.

JEL code: C10, E50, L10.


54

The Day of the Week Effect on the Macedonian Stock Market

Index

Vesna Bucevska Faculty of Economics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Blvd. Goce Delcev 9V,

1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

[email protected]

Dragan Denkovski Faculty of Economics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Blvd. Goce Delcev 9V,

1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

[email protected]

Abstract: The main aim of this research is to determine the presence of the calendar anomaly the day of

the week effect on the Macedonian Stock Market in the whole period from 2005 till 2015, and

separately in every annual period from 2005 till 2015. The methodology used dummy variables

regression model. In addition Wald test is applied. The weekend effect is found only in the

periods of 2011 and 2015. In the period of 2011 even though the Friday return has a negative

sign it is higher than the Monday’s return. It is conclusive that the same effect exists in 2015.

For the rest of the periods there is no sufficient statistical evidence for the existence of the day

of the week effect. By modeling the volatility with GARCH (1,1) model the mean equation of

the whole period is only statistically significant, confirming the presence of the calendar

anomaly.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, daily returns, the day of the week effect, volatility.

JEL code: C12, C32, C58, G10.

Acknowledgment: This work has been partially supported by Croatian Science Foundation under the project

Statistical Modelling for Response to Crisis and Economic Growth in Western Balkan



55

The determinants of employment of small and medium-sized

enterprises in the European Union: A panel data analysis

Martina Basarac Sertić Economic Research Division, Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts,

Zrinski trg 11, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Martina Harc Institute for Scientific and Artistic Work in Osijek, Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts,

Franje Kuhača 29/I, HR-31000 Osijek, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to contribute to the on-going debate on the small and medium-

sized enterprises (SMEs) as the backbone of the European economy, with special emphasis on

identifying the determinants of SMEs manufacturing employment. Despite the fact that a

European SMEs suffered serious setbacks at the end of the previous decade, in 2014, SMEs in

the non-financial business sector generated more than EUR 3.7 trillion of value added, and

employed almost 90 million people. Thus, estimating the dynamic panel data models, paper

examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators, seeking in particular to gain a deeper

understanding of the features that have increased SMEs employment in European Union

members during the 2008-2014. Specifically, the authors utilize the system GMM estimator

with robust standard errors. Econometric analysis indicates that better access to finance, active

labour market policies, and higher GDP growth are statistically significant conditions for

achieving an increase in SMEs employment.

Keywords: employment, manufacturing, panel data model, small and medium-sized

enterprises.

JEL code: C33, E24.


56

The Palma ratio and the Gini coefficient in measuring inequality

of households’ income in selected European countries



[email protected]

Josipa Akalović Antić Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Applied Sciences

VERN, Iblerov trg 10, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

The aim of the paper is to study the households’ income concentration using the Palma, an

inequality measure introduced by Chilean economist Gabriel Palma, here calculated for the

households’ income in selected European countries. The World Bank data for 2004 and 2010

were analysed for eleven countries. The highest value of the Palma was in 2010 in the R. of

Macedonia (2.34), meaning that the upper 10% of households had 2.34 times (or 134%) more

income than the lower 40%. In the same time, Scandinavian countries had the Palma measure

mostly below 1.00. In the period from 2004 to 2010, Croatia, Denmark, The R. of Macedonia

and United Kingdom showed an increase, and Finland, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Serbia and

Slovenia showed a decrease of the Palma measure of inequality. Because of stability of the

“middle” 50% share of income across studied countries, in the future, if differences among “the

richest” (the top 10%) and “the poorest”(the bottom 40%) would increase, the Palma, being

more intuitive, would show it better than the Gini coefficient. Thus, the authors recommend

complementing the Gini with the Palma inequality ratio.

Keywords: Gini coefficient, households’ income, measures of inequality, Palma inequality

ratio.

JEL code: A10, D63, E01.

mailto:[email protected]


57

The size of the hidden economy in Macedonia: Tendencies and

challenges

Blagica Novkovska Statistical Consultant, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

[email protected]

Abstract: In all of the economies, there are activities that are neither covered nor registered by official

institutions and which, because of the consequences they provoke, attract the interest of

researchers, statisticians, policy makers, and the whole public.Presence and extent of the hidden

economy in Macedonia is driven by the impact of various causes and factors, some of them

arising from specifics of economic and political events in the last two decades. This paper

provides a comprehensive overview of twenty year data on the hidden economy in Macedonia

estimated with energy input method and latent estimator model. It has been found that different

factors influenced non registered activities but the tax burden and the avoiding of labour law

standards are dominantly responsible for the high extent of hidden economy. The required

different policies measures to cope with the hidden economy in Macedonia are presented at the

end of the paper.

Keywords: hidden economy, methods of estimation, tax burden, Multiple or Simultaneous

Equation Models.

JEL code: O17, H26, H27, C3.


58

The time disaggregation of GDP series for chosen five South-East

European countries

Mislav Šagovac Contentio d.o.o., Vjekoslava Majera 24a, HR-10410 Velika Gorica, Croatia

[email protected]

Luka Šikić Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Marulićev trg 19/I, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

This paper applies time disaggregation techniques to estimate monthly from yearly GDP series

of five chosen South-East European countries for the period 2003-2012. We believe that this is

important because the time dimension of the available data for these countries happens to be

too short for the time series analysis. Somewhat short time series that we start from also

constrain our results to a certain degree but we are still able to produce the data set that is big

enough to satisfy asymptotic properties of some time series estimators and enables the time

series analysis on the GDP series in the given sample of countries. We use Chow-Lin (1971)

and Fernandez (1981) approaches as well as the Denton (1970) method. We use monthly

industrial production index as the indicator variable. Our robustness check includes unit root

and cointegration tests on time series we analyse.

Keywords: time disaggregation methods, time frequency conversion, South-East European

countries.

JEL code: C10, C80, R10.


59

Official Statistics Continuum: Some History and Recent Methodological Novelties


60


61

Chapters from the history of the Hungarian Statistical Association

Éva Laczka Hungarian Statistical Association, Keleti Károly utca 5-7, H-1024 Budapest, Hungary

[email protected]

Abstract: The mission of the Hungarian Statistical Association (HSA) is to create a forum to develop and

discuss theoretical, scientific and practical issues of statistics and to provide information on

statistical matters of general interest. It safeguards the history of statistics, the memory of

famous statisticians. It is an associate member of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and

maintains relations with other international organisations and statistical societies. The HSA was

founded on the 22nd of June 1922 with the primary aim to develop and popularize statistics.

After 26 years of successful functioning, the Association was suspended in 1949 by the State

power. Following a decade of forced cessation of its activities from 1960 the Association

functioned for three decades as the Statistical Section of the Hungarian Economic Society. The

HSA regained its independence on the 3rd of March 1990. It celebrated its 25th anniversary in

October 2015 with the event organized in the Open-air museum of Szentendre where 2500

visitors took part in the statistical awareness raising programs. The Association performs its

activity in 8 Sections representing all the segments of statistical activity. To cope with the

theoretical and practical changes in statistics induced by economic and social processes,

technical development and the explosion of information, the Association strengthened

international cooperation. It launched in 2005 the cooperation of the Austrian, Slovak, Czech,

Slovenian, Romanian, Hungarian statistical societies, the so-called Visegrád Cooperation (V6).

The HSA joined in 2012 the Federation of European National Statistical Societies (FENStatS)

and in 2015 the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS). The purpose of the

presentation is to present the efforts, results, successes and experiences of the Association.

Keywords: international cooperation, mission of national statistical societies, statistical culture.

JEL code: A39, B15, Z18.


62

Financial health care indicators for Croatia according to the

System of Health Accounts methodology

Ana Ivičević Uhernik Department of Health Economics, Division of Public Health, Croatian Institute of Public

Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Tanja Mišić Department of Health Economics, Division of Public Health, Croatian Institute of Public

Health, Rockefellerova 7, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

System of Health Accounts (SHA) is a standardised methodology comprising detailed

classifications of different participants and functions in the health care. Their combination in

the tables provides overview of the health care expenditures' structure. Department of Health

Economics from Croatian Institute of Public Health started collection of the data according to

the SHA methodology in 2012. Data on health care expenditures are collected once a year from

Croatian Health Insurance Fund, Ministries of Health, Defence, Justice and Finance, counties

and City of Zagreb authorities, private health insurances and Household Budget Survey. For

2013, total health care expenditures for Croatia according to the SHA methodology were 3,17

billion EUR, i.e. 745 EUR/inhabitant. The largest share of this amount was spent on

pharmaceuticals (32.7%), followed by outpatient (23.3%) and inpatient (21.5%) curative and

rehabilitative care. Data according to the SHA methodology also enable international

comparison of the financial health care indicators.

Keywords: Croatia, Financial health care indicators, System of Health Accounts.

JEL code: I13, H51, H75.


63

Measuring Hungarian agricultural productivity using two

different methods

Judit Poór Hungarian Statistical Association, University of Pannonia, Georgikon Faculty

Department of Economic Methodology, Keszthely, Hungary

[email protected]

Orsolya Tóth Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Rural Development Policy Department,

H-1024 Budapest, Hungary

[email protected]

Abstract:

Globally, the growing population number and the desire of material enrichment inspire the

expansion of agricultural output by the improvement of productivity and efficiency due to the

global competition and the responsible use of resources partly induced by the scarcity of natural

resources. So, research of agricultural productivity is of cardinal importance. But how can we

measure productivity on national level? The purpose of this study is to show the results relating

to Hungary on the basis of two different methods, which are suitable for analysing the

agricultural productivity of countries, but they are suitable for international comparative

analysis too. One of them is a method using macro-level data which is used for example by the

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This method analyses the change of total

factor productivity (TFP) accepted measure of productivity. Data to analysis result from the

FAOSTAT database of United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and national

statistical sources. FAOSTAT as an international database publishes data by country, region

and globally since 1961, so allowing long-term international comparative analyses. The other

method is based on farm-level data. The size of production reserves can be examined using

theoretical and methodological framework of technical efficiency. Non-parametric analysis

(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA) is used in this study to estimate the technical efficiency of

farms. The Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) provides the database for the analysis,

which is also suitable for making international comparative analysis.

Keywords: agriculture, efficiency, Hungary, productivity.

JEL code: C1, D24, O4, Q12.


64

Medical Worker Registry as a statistical instrument for collecting

data on health care workers in Croatia

Mario Trošelj Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, Croatia

[email protected]

Željka Draušnik Croatian Institute of Public Health, Rockefellerova 7, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

In line with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and directives and as an

essential precondition for the transformation of Croatian health service in 1990/91, a national

Medical Worker Registry was set up at Croatian Institute of Public Health (CIPH). Monitoring

the data on the workforce in the health system is simultaneously one of the statistical research

projects run for the state by CIPH. The criteria for inclusion and monitoring of medical workers

were primarily set according to the WHO Health for All methodology. Data collected via

register are available for practising manpower staff and in the last few years are in coherence

with standardised methodology prepared by OECD, Eurostat and WHO. Data are monitored

according to all required characteristics, chronologically, this is by degree of the technical and

scientific background achieved type of employment, activity and employer in the health system.

Health institutional and private practices responsibilities include the monthly reporting of any

change in manpower characteristics, as well as the current reporting of any change in the

technical or scientific level of their staff. There is no national survey for professionally active

staff and for health professionals licensed to practice data are collected by professional

chambers. The foundation and operation of the Medical Worker Registry has enabled us to have

direct, rapid and more accurate insight into the state of employment in health. Data from 2009

- 2013 have been collected and published as well as delivered to EUROSTAT and WHO. Beside

the improvement of cooperation and coordination between Ministry of Health, Croatian

Institute of Public Health and Croatian Health Insurance Fund it is needed to include other

stakeholders, such as health care chambers, to collect more comprehensive data, especially

regarding valid licenses, foreign-trained health workers and health workers migration.

Keywords: health care workers, register, Croatia.

JEL code: I10.


65

Social Statistics Applications


66


67

Assessing the reliability of percentage above cut scores in

monitoring tourist satisfaction levels

Ivan Sever Institute for Tourism, Vrhovec 5, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Zrinka Marušić Institute for Tourism, Vrhovec 5, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Sanda Čorak Institute for Tourism, Vrhovec 5, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Statistical reporting practices commonly include percentage above cut (PAC) scores. An

important issue in using PAC score is the choice of appropriate threshold that separates

achievement categories. This is an arbitrary decision that could affect study outcomes, thus

calling for measures to assess its reliability. This paper uses the receiver operating characteristic

(ROC) method to select optimal threshold for separating tourist satisfaction from dissatisfaction

in valuing performance of destination attributes in Croatian coastal counties, and to assess its

reliability. The results indicate that optimal PAC threshold applied on the share of ratings of 4

and 5 on the 5-point satisfaction scale should be placed at 75%, instead of 60% that has been

used in the official survey reports. The results also support the decision to lengthen the scale in

2014 survey, as the 7-point scale better discriminates between satisfaction levels.

Keywords: percentage above cut (PAC) score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC)

analysis, tourist satisfaction.

JEL code: B41, C18, L80, Z38.


68

Croatian First Football League: Prediction of teams' ranking in

the championship

Dušan Munđar Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb, Pavlinska 2, HR-42000

Varaždin, Croatia

[email protected]

Diana Šimić Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb, Pavlinska 2, HR-42000

Varaždin, Croatia

[email protected]

Abstract:

Goal of our research was to use simulation modelling for prediction of Croatian Football League

seasonal ranking. We have developed a model of number of goals scored by a team in a match

based on Poisson distribution. Parameters of the model were estimated from the data on the first

part of the season. Final rankings were predicted from 1000 simulation runs of the second part

of the season based on the model. For each team the most frequent outcome of the simulation

defined the team's rank. The method was validated on Season 2014/15. Prediction was correct

for the first five teams. Final ratings in Croatian Football League, Season 2015/16 were

predicted from data on the first 21 rounds. This is a feasible method for dynamic prediction of

final rankings during the season. Advantage of the method is that in addition to predicting the

final ranking it also estimates probabilities of alternative positions.

Keywords: football, Poisson distribution, predictive analytics, sports analytics.

JEL code: C53.


69

Economic and literacy factors in the diffusion of zero and the

Hindu-Arabic numeral system in the Mediterranean and Adriatic

culture areas

Craig Molgaard School of Public and Community Health Sciences, College of Health Professions and

Biomedical Sciences, University of Montana, 301 Skaggs Building, Missoula, MT 59812,

United States of America

[email protected]

Tovah Foss School of Public and Community Health Sciences, College of Health Professions and

Biomedical Sciences, University of Montana, 301 Skaggs Building, Missoula, MT 59812,


[email protected]

Abstract:

The discipline of epidemiology is the basic science of public health and is largely quantitative

and comparative, involving statistical tools such as incidence rates, prevalence rates, risk ratios,

odds ratios, attributable risk, and confidence intervals. The diffusion of the concept of zero and

the Arabic numeral system into the Italian and Croatian city-states during the medieval period

followed a changing Mediterranean economy. The actual diffusion process can be identified

with some precision, but was not a singular event. Rather, it was multiple and reinforcing

events, involving Toledo, Spain: Bugia, Algeria; Alexandria, Egypt; Palermo, Sicily; Venice,

Italy; and Ragusa (Dubrovnik), Croatia. The role of early Italian literacy in this diffusion is

noteworthy, with perhaps 30% of the populations of the north and central Italian cities being

literate by the 1300s. These processes of diffusion and adoption allowed the evolution of

epidemiology as a discipline to move forward significantly.

Keywords: epidemiology, Hindu-Arabic numerals, literacy, public health statistics.

JEL code: F18, I15, O35, Z13.


70

Impact of ICT and organizational readiness on innovations in

hotel and travel agency service industry: Preliminary research

Mirjana Pejic-Bach Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Zagreb, Department of Informatics,


[email protected]

Zrinka Marusic Institute for Tourism, Vrhovec 5, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Jovana Zoroja Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Zagreb, Department of Informatics,


[email protected]

Abstract:

Goal of the research is to investigate to what extent the usage of information and

communication technologies (ICT) and the level of development of organizational readiness

for the innovativeness impact the innovations in hotel and travel agency service industry. In

order to full-fill the goal of the research empirical survey has been conducted on the sample of

hotels and travel agencies in Croatia and Montenegro. Independent variables measure the usage

of ICT and organizational readiness for innovativeness. First, principal component analysis

(PCA) with Varimax factor rotation was applied on a set of ICT items. Four factors were

extracted: (i) advanced ICT systems, (ii) internal and external communication management,

(iii) e-business, and (iv) customer transactional data. Three measures of organizational

readiness were used: (i) personnel included in innovation activities, (ii) external financial

support for innovation activities, and (iii) proportion of profit invested in innovation activities.

Following logistic regression models were developed for the hotel firms and travel agencies,

separately. First model deploys the existence of product and service innovations as the

dependent variable, while second and third model use process and marketing innovations,

respectively. The research revealed that the usage of ICT and organizational readiness for

innovations significantly impacts all of the three main innovation activities: product/services

innovations, process innovations and marketing innovations. However, the impact was different

between hotel firms and travel agencies. Found discrepancy indicates that the innovations in

hotels and travel agencies should be supported in different manner.

Keywords: hotels, ICT usage, innovation, logistic regression, travel agencies.

JEL code: O32, L83.

Acknowledgement:

The research has been financially supported by the bilateral scientific project: Intelligent

Systems and Innovations in Tourism; funded by the Ministry of education and science,

Montenegro and Ministry of science, education, and sport, Croatia.


71

Latent change variable models: Applications in personality and

emotional intelligence research

Vesna Buško University of Zagreb, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Psychology,

Ivana Lučića 3, HR-10000 Zagreb

[email protected]

Abstract:

The paper presents a class of structural equation models intended for the study of inter- and

intraindividual variations in measures of more of less stable psychological attributes. The

particular modeling procedures are based on the latent state-trait theory (LST; Steyer et al.,

1992, 1999; Deinzer et al., 1995), developed as an extension of the classical psychometric test

theory with a key notion that the measurement of any psychological attribute is shaped not only

by stable individual or trait component but also by systematic albeit unstable situation-related

influences. Following the assumptions of the LST theory, Steyer et al. (2004) introduced the

specific structural equation models where the true intraindividual change scores between

successive occasions of measurement correspond to the values of endogenous latent variables.

Various substantive hypotheses on the correlates and predictors of true change between the

measurements can further be tested by such a model specification. The presentation will include

a demonstration of the true change modeling methodology applied to the study of

intraindividual variations in measures of emotional intelligence (EI) and perceived self-

competence domains in samples of preadolescents on three and four occasions, within a two

year period. The models of LST theory were specified to include the latent variables

corresponding to the state variability in EI as well as the trait change in self-competence scores.

The tested structural equation models and the parameters obtained point to different patterns of

relationships of latent state and latent change measures with particular antecedent and

achievement variables.

Keywords: latent change models, psychological research, structural equation modeling.

JEL code: C3, C330, Y80.


72

Linear versus double logarithmic cross-country regression: The

influence of entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness on real

gross domestic product per capita

Anita Harmina VERN' University of Applied Sciences, Trg bana J. Jelačića 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]



[email protected]



[email protected]

Abstract:

The paper analyses the influence of total early entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness of

the economy on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in a cross-national perspective

by the methods of linear and double logarithmic multiple regression analysis. In order to

investigate which model fits the data better, the models are compared in respect of fulfillment

of the regression assumptions and quality of the relationship between the dependent and the

independent variables. The choice of the functional form of the model is made based on the

results of MacKinnon, White and Davidson test and on comparison of coefficients of

determination. The results of the analysis show that independent variables have a statistically

significant impact on real GDP per capita. The comparison procedure for coefficient of

determination results in conclusion that the linear model describes the variations of the real

GDP per capita better.

Keywords: entrepreneurial activity, MacKinnon, White and Davidson test, linear and double

logarithmic regression model, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

JEL code: C21, J26, M13, O11.


73

Pattern recognition, evaluation and generalization of

kinesiological phenomena from heterogenous sample via method

of partialization of variance

Igor Gruić University of Zagreb, Faculty of Kinesiology, Horvaćanski zavoj 15,


[email protected]

Abstract:

Knowledge, abilities, morphology etc., are organized trough function, form&content.

Understanding allometry (McMahon, 1984), method of partializations (Milas, 2009) etc., may

improve power of insight in practical research&applications - here presented in two diametric

effect of partializations on interpreted results in research examples – 1) Gruić, 2011, and 2)

Gruić et al, 2015. In 1) evaluation of performance within specific motor skills – with&without

influence of certain motor abilities (Gruić, 2011; 2 experimental groups; 80 students; year

2008/09, age:19; 9 specific handball motor skills, 13 basic and specific motor abilities),

differences in evaluated knowledge in two groups prior partializations were statistically

significant (Wilks' Lambda=0.74, χ2=21.68, p< 0.01). Differences in evaluated abilities were

not statistically significant (Wilks' Lambda=0,87, χ2=9,51, p=0,73). Differences in knowledge

partialized by results in abilities (residual variance - excluded contribution of abilities), were

not affected, compared to previously defined differences in evaluated knowledge (Wilks'

Lambda=0,75, χ2=21,09, p< 0.01). In 2) evaluation of pedobarographic features of gait – with

& without influence of longitudinal dimensionality (Gruić et al, 2015; experimental set: 63

variables, 22 participants: 13male&9 female; year 2014/15; age:14-35, average

172,56cm/73.11kg body height/mass (19.47 BMI)), tested differences between genders were

affected by partializations. After partialization of results (excluded influence of longitudinal

dimensionality), differences were significant in 10 standard variables, 10 less compared to

analysis before partialization. It can be concluded that statistical tool&method of partialization

of the results (by excluding influence/contribution of specific characteristic which tend to

increase heterogeneity), may standardize&improve the power of the protocol&method.

Keywords: heterogeniety, kinesiology, partialization.

JEL code: C30, I00, Z20.


74

Qualitative and quantitative changes of Croatian forestry journals

- Results of link and correspondence analysis

Vesna Špac University of Zagreb, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Heinzelova ulica 55,


[email protected]

Anamarija Jazbec University of Zagreb, Faculty of Forestry, Svetošimunska cesta 25,


[email protected]

Abstract:

Research focus was placed on the three Croatian forestry journals which are important carriers

of information in the field of forestry science in Croatia. The research was conducted by

analyzing the established links between authors, institutions, countries and journals. The

journals have a key role on effective transfer and storage of information for the scientific

communication. The assumption is that the observed journals are the core for the transmission

of information in the Croatian forestry, and that statistical methods could identify specific

patterns and trends in the creation, transfer and use of published information. It has been

significant changes in the editorial policy of some observed journals during the analyzed period

of time which led to the quantitative and qualitative changes. One of the highlights of changes

was the entry of three journals in Thompson Reuters citation database Science Citation Index

(SCI). The correspondence analysis and link analysis identifies the authors and institutions that

work together. Fortified couples and groups of authors/institutions as well as a group of

authors/institutions with higher frequency of occurrence in joint works. The journals cited in

SCI have been seen great changes in the clustering of institutions and scientists. Relationship

established before entering the SCI soon become weak and break, and new one appears.

Keywords: correspondence analysis, link analysis, scientific communication.

JEL code: C38, D83, Q23.


75

Statistical methods in American academic salary equity studies:

The early 1970s

Amanda L. Golbeck School of Public and Community Health Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT,


[email protected]

Abstract:

In the late 1960’s, noting that there were very few women on the faculty, academic women in

the US began to organize themselves around gender equity issues. Their attention quickly

turned to estimating salary differences between men and women and advocating for adjustment

of individual women’s salaries that were lower than expected. This research reviews the

statistical approaches used in the early 1970’s to evaluate academic salaries for gender

discrimination. In addition to published studies, this study used qualitative data from

unpublished letters, memoranda, and meeting notes held in archives at the University of

California at Berkeley. These data show that the dominant approach to evaluating academic

salaries for gender inequities was to use regression methods. Some individual women with

higher predicted salaries than actual salaries faced steep opposition to rectification by their

administrations; others were successful at having their salaries adjusted using these methods.

Keywords: discrimination, economics of gender, higher education, methodological issues.

JEL code: C18, I23, J16, J71.

Acknowledgement:

The author wishes to thank the Phoebe Haas Charitable Trust and the Philadelphia Foundation

for their generous support of the Elizabeth L. Scott projects.


76

Statistical methods of quality management in the development of

improvement user's satisfaction in public sector of Bosnia and

Herzegovina

Senad Fazlović University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, Univerzitetska 8, 75000 Tuzla,


[email protected]

Dino Kakeš Group for Control of Large Taxpayers Tuzla, Mitra Trifunovića Uče 161, 75000 Tuzla,


[email protected]

Abstract:

To ensure such a comprehensive approach to the process of monitoring, measuring and

improving the quality of services provided by the public sector, as quite logical, analysis of

statistical methods is imposed, both at the stage of identifying the needs and wishes of service

users, through stages of their formation in specific services, to the stage of ensuring quality

management in the public sector. Due to unique characteristics of public sector in Bosnia and

Herzegovina, and starting from the premise that the main purpose of introducing the system of

quality management is quality improvement of public services on the one hand, and customer

satisfaction on the other hand, the paper presents selected statistical methods of quality

management, and the use of mentioned through the research results of the impact of the

implementation of quality management system to the satisfaction of public services users of

Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Keywords: public sector, quality management, statistical methods, user satisfaction.

JEL code: C10, D73, H41.


77

Tourism and environmental assets: Review of valuation studies in

Western Balkans countries

Zrinka Marušić Institute for Tourism, Vrhovec 5, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]



[email protected]

Abstract:

Public goods, specifically the environmental amenities and natural resources, are often a

primary factor in attracting tourism demand. As tourism activity is gaining its importance in

transition economies of Western Balkan countries, estimating the value of natural resources

through tourism could increase the need for their protection and sustainable management. While

there is a plenty of application of valuation techniques in Western European countries, the

application of methods valuing such benefits is scarce in Western Balkans countries. Filling

that gap, the paper reviews the application of the three most commonly used valuation

techniques - Contingent Valuation, Travel Cost and Hedonic Pricing - in valuing natural

resources from the tourism point of view in Western Balkan countries.

Keywords: natural resources, tourism, valuation, Western Balkan countries.

JEL code: C83, Q26, Q51.

Acknowledgement:





78


79

APPENDIX:

LIST OF AUTHORS


80


81

List of Authors

Page(s)

Akalović Antić Josipa, Croatia, [email protected] 56

Aljinović Barać Željana, Croatia, [email protected] 50

Bahovec Vlasta, Croatia, [email protected] 45

Bambulović Mario, Croatia, [email protected] 52

Barbić Dajana, Croatia, [email protected] 45

Basarac Sertić Martina, Croatia, [email protected] 55

Beljo Jure, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 35

Benjak Tomislav, Croatia, [email protected] 9

Beraković Gordan, Croatia, [email protected] 46

Bošnjak Nikolina, Italy, [email protected] 21

Božović Doris, Croatia, [email protected] 43

Bucalo Jelić Dana, Serbia, [email protected] 30

Bucevska Vesna, Republic of Macedonia, [email protected] 54

Bulajić Milica, Serbia, [email protected] 19

Buško Vesna, Croatia, [email protected] 71

Choo-Wosoba Hyoyoung, United States of America, [email protected] 37

Cigula Maja, Croatia, [email protected] 42

Cugmas Marjan, Slovenia, [email protected] 25

Čaklović Lavoslav, Croatia, [email protected] 20, 43

Čeh Časni Anita, Croatia, [email protected] 49

Čižmešija Mirjana, Croatia, [email protected] 14

Čorak Sanda, Croatia, [email protected] 67

Čurković Maja, Croatia, [email protected] 53

Datta Somnath, United States of America, [email protected] 37

Datta Susmita, United States of America, [email protected] 36

Dečković-Vukres Vlasta, Croatia, [email protected] 27

Demšar Eva, Slovenia, [email protected] 22

Denkovski Dragan, Republic of Macedonia, [email protected] 54

Draušnik Željka, Croatia, [email protected] 9, 64

Dumičić Ksenija, Croatia, [email protected] 53, 56, 72

Erjavec Nataša, Croatia, [email protected] 44

Fazlović Senad, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 76

Ferligoj Anuška, Slovenia, [email protected] 25

Foss Tovah, United States of America, [email protected] 69

Galinec Davor, Croatia, [email protected] 11

Gavrić Mario, Croatia, [email protected] 10

Golbeck L. Amanda, United States of America, [email protected] 75

Goldstein Pavle, Croatia, [email protected] 42

Gruić Goran, Croatia, [email protected] 7

Gruić Igor, Croatia, [email protected] 73

Harc Martina, Croatia, [email protected] 55

Harmina Anita, Croatia, [email protected] 72

Hodak Branka, Croatia, [email protected] 46

Hodges G. Donald, United States of America, [email protected] 33

Huljak Ivan, Croatia, [email protected] 52

Ivičević Uhernik Ana, Croatia, [email protected] 27, 62

Ivišić Josip, Croatia, [email protected] 46

Jakšić Saša, Croatia, [email protected] 44

Janković Šoja Svjetlana, Serbia, [email protected] 30

Jazbec Anamarija, Croatia, [email protected] 74

Jerebić Vladimir, Croatia, [email protected] 20

Jeremić Veljko, Serbia, [email protected] 19

Kakeš Dino, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 76

Kanlić Fahir, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 15

Kastelec Damijana, Slovenia, [email protected] 22


82

Knezović Zrinka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 35

Kotnarowski Michał, Poland, [email protected] 46

Krč Janez, Slovenia, [email protected] 33

Laczka Éva, Hungary, [email protected] 61

Leban Vasja, Slovenia, [email protected] 33

Levy Steven, United States of America, [email protected] 37

Lolić Ivana, Croatia, [email protected] 14

Lozanov-Crvenković Zagorka, Serbia, [email protected] 26

Malešič Kaja, Slovenia, [email protected] 13

Maletić Radojka, Serbia, [email protected] 30

Mandić Ana, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 35

Mangafić Jasmina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 51

Maričić Milica, Serbia, [email protected] 19

Marušić Zrinka, Croatia, [email protected] 67, 70, 77

Mihel Sandra, Croatia, [email protected] 27

Mišić Tanja, Croatia, [email protected] 62

Molgaard A. Craig, United States of America, [email protected] 69

Munđar Dušan, Croatia, [email protected] 68

Nedanov Aleksandar, Croatia, [email protected] 20

Nikolić-Đorić Emilija, Serbia, [email protected] 26

Novkovska Blagica, Republic of Macedonia, [email protected] 57

Ollech Daniel, Germany, [email protected] 8

Palić Irena, Croatia, [email protected] 45, 53

Pejić-Bach Mirjana, Croatia, [email protected] 70

Perić Nikica, Bosnia and Herzegovina 35

Perić Tunjo, Croatia, [email protected] 51

Pezdevšek Malovrh Špela, Slovenia, [email protected] 33

Pikelj Jerneja, Slovenia, [email protected] 13

Pivac Snježana, Croatia, [email protected] 50

Poór Judit, Hungary, [email protected] 63

Radojičić Zoran, Serbia, [email protected] 19

Resić Emina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 15, 51

Rozga Ante, Croatia, [email protected] 3

Seljak Rudi, Slovenia, [email protected] 13

Sever Ivan, Croatia, [email protected] 67

Somun-Kapetanović Rabija, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 12, 15

Sorić Petar, Croatia, [email protected] 14

Stare Janez, Slovenia, [email protected] 29

Šabanović Edin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [email protected] 12

Šagovac Mislav, Croatia, [email protected] 58

Šeparović Marino, Croatia, [email protected] 46

Šikić Luka, Croatia, [email protected] 58

Šimić Diana, Croatia, [email protected] 68

Šonje Velimir, Croatia, [email protected] 41

Špac Vesna, Croatia, [email protected] 74

Štefančić Vesna, Croatia, [email protected] 9

Tadić Ivana, Croatia, [email protected] 50

Torma Kukavčić Jasena, Croatia, [email protected] 41

Tóth Orsolya, Hungary, [email protected] 63

Trošelj Mario, Croatia, [email protected] 64

Vuglar Jadranka, Croatia, [email protected] 11

Zadnik Stirn Lidija, Slovenia, [email protected] 33, 48

Zagorščak Maja, Slovenia, [email protected] 42

Zoroja Jovana, Croatia, [email protected] 70

Žmuk Berislav, Croatia, [email protected] 28, 72, 77

Žulj Mihaljević Maja, Croatia, [email protected] 35


83

The ISCCRO'16 Conference Patrone:

The ISCCRO’16 Conference Organizer:

Croatian Statistical Association

Address: Ilica 3 (at the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia) HR-10000 Zagreb, CROATIA, www.hsd-stat.hr

The ISCCRO'16 Conference Co-organizer: Croatian Chamber of Economy

Rooseveltov trg 2, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia

The ISCCRO'16 Conference Sponsor:

http://public.mzos.hr/Default.aspx?sec=2428

http://web.hgk.hr/


84

ISSN: 1849-9864

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