bond markets characteristics yields coupon maturity tax features liquidity risk ratings callability...
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BOND MARKETS
CHARACTERISTICS
• yields• coupon• maturity• tax features• liquidity• risk• ratings• callability• indenture restrictions• subordination• convertability
MONEY MARKET INSTRUMENTS - LIQUID ASSETS
Also called “cash” assets
• T-bills • Commercial Paper• Bankers Acceptances• Eurodollar deposit • short term tax-exempts• money market funds and accounts (check writing -
insured)
BONDS AND NOTES
• Bonds 5-40 years maturity
• Notes 1-7 years maturity
Types include treasury, corporate, gov. agency, municipal.
Look at quotes - see websites – Investinginbonds.com, Tradebonds.com, Bonds-online.com
YIELD SPREADS
Yn = Yr + I + P
where Yn is the nominal yield,
Yr is the real yield - yield on U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds (see WSJ),
I is the expected inflation rate over the lifeof the bond - regular Treasury yield minus inflation-indexed yield,
P is the risk premium - bond yield minus same maturity U.S. Treasury yield.
P widens during recession and narrows in expansion. It can be measured by the difference (spread) between the yield on a risky bond and a risk-free bond (U.S. Treasury).
Spreads Due to InflationNote: The terms “yields” and “rates” (like interest rates) are used interchangeably.
ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE BONDS•Economic significance (cyclicality) of company &
industry/ quality of management/ performance in recession - e.g. Chrysler wants cash cushion.
•Financial resources of the company (liquidity, asset protection, capital structure).
•Indenture provisions include collateral / sinking fund / call provisions / creation of additional debt / working capital & dividend restriction
•Ratings - below Baa or BBB not investment quality
SPREADS DATA – economagic.com, riskmetrics.com
Spreads Due to Risk Differences
Mortgage Yield Spread
ANALYSIS OF MUNICIPAL BONDSGeneral Obligations
• Rating• Economic Strength of Community• Revenue Raising Potential• Relative Magnitude of fixed charges• Attitude and Fiscal discipline of Officials
Revenue Bonds
analyze financial prospects of the project supporting payment only revenues support payments
TAX EXEMPT YIELDS -STATE & LOCALQUESTION: How do you know if its best to buy tax
exempt or taxable bonds?
YT = Taxable yieldYTE = Tax exempt yieldT = Tax rate
YTE = YT (1 - T)or, YT = YTE / (1 - T)
=> T = 1 - (YTE / YT)
If we know YTE and YT we can estimate the "indifferent" T - implicit marginal buyer's tax rate
If your personal tax rate is Tp then your after tax yield on a taxable bond is
YAT = YT (1 - Tp)
Therefore, if your Tp >T, then buy Tax Exempt Bond(only approximate for bonds trading above or below par because capital gains are taxable)
QUESTION: If the taxable bond yield is 8 percent, the tax exempt yield is 6 percent and your tax rate is 30 percent, which bonds should you buy?
ANS: YAT = .08(1 - .30) = .056 => buy tax exempts
QUESTION: Investor expects a Democrat to win the presidential election- expect tax rates will rise - what should happen to municipal yields? - fall
QUESTION: What happens if we get a flat tax at 17%? - taxable yields fall and tax exempts rise
• COLLATERALIZED OBLIGATIONS
• mortgage
• car loans
• credit card debt
• David Bowie royalties
BOND VALUATION AND YIELDS
PROMISED YIELD TO MATURITY
assumes bond held to maturityassumes coupons reinvested at YTM rate.
Find k given bond price, Bn , coupons, C, maturity, n, and par value, Par.
if all payments are made we get the promised yield, k, if we pay price Bn. Otherwise, we need to substitute the expected coupon and par payment rather than the promised payments and then find k.
BC
k
C
k
C
k
Par
knn
n n
1 221 1 1 1( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
BOND PRICING
Find and estimate of Bn given expected coupons and Par, E(C) and E(Par), and k.
QUESTION: What happens if k increases? B decreases What happens if k decreases? B increases
BE C
k
E C
k
E C
k
E Par
knn
n n
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )1 2
21 1 1 1
REALIZED YIELD - CALCULATED AFTER THE FACT
Assume you sell after 2 periods - find k in
Bp = Purchase PriceBs = Sales Price
This assumes coupons reinvested at k
CURRENT YIELD
BC
k
C
k
B
kps
1 2
2 21 1 1( ) ( )
YC
Pcm
coupon
current market price
BOND VALUATION
n
nkk
PV)1(
1,
= Coupon[PVAk,n] + Par[PVk,n]
To get the bond price you can use a financial calculator or you can
compute a present value annuity factor
nn k
Parkkk
CouponB)1(
1
)1(
11
n
nkkkk
PVA)1(
11,
And a present value factor for one cash flow
And plug them into the formula above
Using the equation above
PROBLEM: Suppose a bond offers a 10% coupon, on $1000 par, for 3 years and the expected inflation rate is 2%, the real rate is 3% and the bond’s risk premium is 1%. What is its price?
B = 100[PVA .06, 3] + 1000[PV .06, 3]= 100(2.673) + 1000(.84)= 1107
1000 (PVk,8)
100 (PVA k,8)
par payment is a single cash flow
coupon payments are an annuity
Valuing a 10 percent coupon, 1000 par value bond.
1000
QUESTION: If the company only agrees to pay $1000 at maturity, won’t those who buy this bond lose $107 at maturity?
QUESTION: Would you buy this bond? Why? - greater coupon than par bonds.
A par bond would cost $1000 but only pay a $60 coupon. The present value of the difference in coupons
(100 - 60)(2.673) = 107
which is the difference in price between this bond and a par bond. Alternatively, a bond that offered a 2% coupon when rates are 6% will have a price of
B = 20[PVA.06, 3] + 1000[PV.06, 3] = 893 or $107 less than the par bond.
FINDING THE YIELD TO MATURITY
PROBLEM: Suppose you observe a bond in the marketwith a price of $803 that pays a coupon of 10% till maturity in 5 years. What is its implied yield to maturity?
Try 16%
803 = 100(PVA?,5) + 1000(PV?,5) = 100(3.274) + 1000(.476)
= 803
PRICING WITH SEMI-ANNUAL COUPONS
PROBLEM: Suppose a bond pays 10% coupon, semi-annually, has 10 years till maturity and has a required return (or YTM) of 8%. What is its price?
B = 50(PVA.04,20) + 1000(PV.04,20)
= 50(13.59) + 1000(.456)
= 1135.5
FINDING THE REALIZED YIELD
QUESTION: If you buy a 20% coupon, par bond, with 3years maturity and you hold it for three years are you sure to earn 20%?
ANSWER: No because the calculation of YTM assumesthat the coupons are reinvested at 20%, if rateschange your realized yield will change because you'll earn more or less than 20% on the reinvestedcoupons.
For example, when you bought the bond YTM was 20%. But suppose rates fell to 5% the day after you bought and stay there for three years.
Your realized yield will be implied in:
use PV = FV[PVk,n] = FV[1/(1+k)]n . .
Solve for k to get “realized” yield, the true yield which depends upon how much you initially invest (PV = present value) and how much you accumulate by the time that you sell in the future (FV = future value).
1000 = (200(1+.05)2 + 200(1+.05) + 1200)[PVk,3]= 1630.5[PVk,3]
=> 1000/1630.5 = [PVk,3] = [1/(1+k)]3 = .6133=> k = 17.7% realized yield falls because
reinvestment rate falls
Suppose you buy a 20 percent coupon bond at par, andimmediately after you buy, the market yield falls to 5
percent. If you plan to hold the bond until maturity, yourrealized yield falls because reinvested coupons earn less.
0 Period 1st Period 2nd Period 3rd Period
0 Period 1st Period 2nd Period 3rd Period
200 (FVA.05 ,3) = 630.4
200 (FVA.20 ,3) = 728
QUESTION: Then how can you truly lock-in a rate?
ANSWER: Buy a bond with no coupons - called zero coupon bonds.
QUESTION: Some find this attractive but is there a problem with being locked-in?
ANSWER: Yes. How about if rates rise. You lose out on earning extra interest on reinvested coupons.
QUESTION: Suppose you are asked to value a zero coupon bond. How do you set it up?
ANSWER: Only use the second term in the valuation formula given above.
QUESTION: Which bonds will appreciate assuming capital gains tax is reduced?
ANSWER: Discount bonds.