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Bolivia: Estimation of residential inventory and exposure in urban and rural areas for disaster loss estimation

1. Population by Administrative Units and Size of City, Urban Agglomeration

Prior to European colonization, the Andean region of Bolivia was a part of the Inca Empire. The Spanish conquistadors took control of the region in the 16th century. During most of the Spanish colonial period, this territory was known as Upper Peru and was under the administration of the Viceroyalty of Peru, which included most of Spain's South American colonies, although the area enjoyed substantial autonomy. After the first call for independence in 1809, 16 years of war followed before the establishment of the Republic, named for Simón Bolívar, on 6 August 1825.

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Principal socio-economic statistics In this report we analyze the residential building stock of Bolivia, in order to improve the inventory distributions and estimate the replacement unit costs for residential and non-residential buildings for use in earthquake and hurricane loss estimation. Table 1: Summary socio-economic statistics of Bolivia.

Country

July 2014 Popul.

Estim. by CIA (mill.)

July 2014

Popul. Growth

%

Land area excl.

waters (km2)

2013 official

exch. rate GDP (US$ bill., estim.)

2013 GDP in

PPP (US$ bill.,

estim.)

GDP/head in PPP's (2013)

Bolivia (2014) 10.631 1.60% 1,083,301 29.81 57.55 5,500

Currency and exchange rate vis a vis the US$

Bolivia: Bolivian Boliviano (BOB). 1 US$=6.91 BOB (22 April 2014) Figure 1, shows the exchange rate fluctuations against the US$ for the Bolivian Boliviano. The data show the monthly exchange rate spreads, with the red color highlighting an appreciation of the local currency against the US$, as opposed to the green color that points to a depreciation. Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/.

Figure 1: Bolivian Boliviano (BOB) fluctuation vis-à-vis the US$ in the period April 2011 to April 22, 2014. Administrative subdivisions

Bolivia is divided into 9 departments. Figure 1 shows the map of the departmental boundaries.

Web-site of the National Statistics Agencies

Bolivia: http://www.ine.gob.bo/ (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Last Population and Housing Census

Bolivia: Last census on 2012-11-21.

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Immediately previous census

Bolivia: 2001-09-05 & 1992-06-03.

� Figure 1: Map of the 9 departmental subdivisions of Bolivia. Further administrative subdivisions

Bolivia: The 9 departments are subdivided into:

112 provinces

337 municipalities

1374 cantons. Table 2 shows the departmental population in the 2012 census, population density and projected population for 2014. The data are also available at the province and municipality level. Bolivia isn sparsely populated (just 9 people per square kilometer) but it is also unevenly distributed across the country. Figure 2 shows the GRUMP population density map of Bolivia. Two departments have grown substantially in the last 20 years (1992 census to 2012 census), namely Pando (population growth of 190%) and Santa Cruz (population growth of 95%). At provincial level, 55.6% of the 2012 population is found in just 9 provinces (Pedro Domingo Murillo, Andrés Ibáñez, Cercado (in Cochabamba), Quillacollo, Cercado (in Oruro), Oropeza, Chapare, Tomás Frías and Cercado (in Tarija) and 44.4% in the remaining 103 provinces.

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Figure 2: GRUMP population density map of Bolivia (2000). Source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/grump-v1-population-density/maps/. Table 2: Population and population density of the 9 departments of Bolivia in 2011 and 2014 projection (Source: http://www.statoids.com/uco.html; and INE: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica).

Department Population

(2012) Area (km²)

Capital Popul. Density (p/km2)

Projected Population

(2014)

Beni 421,196 213,564 Trinidad 2 475,706

Chuquisaca 576,153 51,524 Sucre 11 690,858

Cochabamba 1,758,143 55,631 Cochabamba 32 2,011,680

La Paz 2,706,359 133,985 La Paz 20 3,002,547

Oruro 494,178 53,588 Oruro 9 464,149

Pando 110,436 63,827 Cobija 2 92,722

Potosí 823,517 118,218 Potosí 7 807,888

Santa Cruz 2,655,084 370,621 Santa Cruz (de la Sierra) 7 3,098,403

Tarija 482,196 37,623 Tarija 13 572,104

BOLIVIA 10,027,262 1,098,581 9 11,216,057

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Main municipalities In the 2012 census there were 12 municipalities with population greater than 100,000 as listed in Table 3. The joint population of these municipalities (5.134 million) accounted for 51.2% of Bolivia’s population. Table 3: Bolivia’s 12 most populous municipalities (Nov. 2012 census).

MUNICIPIO DEPARTMENTO PROVINCIA POPUL. (2001)

POPUL. (2012)

Santa Cruz de la Sierra SANTA CRUZ Andrés Ibáñez 1,131,778 1,453,549

La Paz LA PAZ Murillo 793,293 843,934

El Alto LA PAZ Murillo 649,958 764,617

Cochabamba COCHABAMBA Cercado 517,024 630,587

Sucre CHUQUISACA Oropeza 214,913 264,683

Oruro ORURO Cercado 201,504 259,388

Tarija TARIJA Cercado 153,457 205,346

Potosí POTOSÍ Tomas Frías 145,057 189,652

Sacaba COCHABAMBA Chapare 117,100 169,494

Quillacollo COCHABAMBA Quillacollo 104,206 137,029

Montero SANTA CRUZ Obispo Santistevan 80,341 109,518

Trinidad BENI Cercado 79,963 106,422

In addition there were 11 municipalities with population in the 50,000 to 100,000 bracket (joint population 0.778 million or 7.8% of the national population). There were also 36 smaller municipalities with population in the 25,000 to 50,000 bracket bracket (joint population 1.304 million or 13% of the national population). Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the capital of the Santa Cruz department and it is the largest city in Bolivia (1,453,500 during the 2012 census). Situated on the Pirai River in eastern Bolivia at elevation of around 415 metres, the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra and its metropolitan area are home to over 70% of the population of the department and it is one of the fastest growing cities in the world. It was not until after World War II and profound agrarian and land reforms that the city began to grow at a very fast pace. It produces nearly 35% of Bolivia's GDP, and receives over 40% of all foreign direct investment in the country. This has helped make Santa Cruz the most important business center in Bolivia and the preferred destination of migrants from all over the country.

Nuestra Señora de La Paz commonly known as La Paz, is Bolivia's second most-populous city, the seat of the country's government and the capital of La Paz Department (764,600 during the 2012 census). It is located on the western side of Bolivia at an elevation of roughly 3,650 metres above sea level. While the official capital of Bolivia (and its seat of justice) is Sucre, La Paz has more government departments. The city sits in a bowl surrounded by the high mountains. As it grew, the city of La Paz climbed the hills, resulting in varying elevations from 3,200 to 4,100 m. In 2008 it had population of 0.877 million La Paz Metropolitan area, formed by the cities of La Paz, El Alto, and Viacha, make the most populous urban area of Bolivia, with a population of 2.3 million inhabitants and surpassing the metropolitan area of Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

El Alto is the second largest city in the department of La Paz, Bolivia and in the country as a whole (844,000 during the 2012 census). Once merely a suburb of adjacent city of La Paz on the Altiplano highlands, El Alto is today one of Bolivia's largest and fastest-growing urban centers.

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The population in 2011 was 0.975 million. It is the highest major metropolis in the world at an elevation of 4,150 metres. El Alto started to grow tremendously in the 1950s, when the settlement was connected to La Paz' water supply and building land in the canyon became more and more short and expensive. In an administrative reform on March 6, 1985 the district of El Alto and surroundings was politically separated from the City of La Paz.

Cochabamba is a city in central Bolivia, located in a valley bearing the same name in the Andes mountain range. It is the capital of the Cochabamba Department and is the fourth largest city in Bolivia with population of 630,587 (2012) and a metropolitan population of more than 1,000,000 people. Cochabamba is known as the "City of Eternal Spring". In 2010 the city hosted the 1st World People's Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth.

Official Definition of ”Urban” (2011 UN Demographic Yearbook)

Bolivia: Localities of 2 000 or more inhabitants.

Urban/Rural Splits Based on the official definition the following urbanization rates occurred during the time of the last population census (November 2012).

Bolivia (2012 census): 67.34% of the population lives in urban areas; 63.72% of the dwellings are in urban areas;

The data are also summarized in Table 4. Table 4: Urbanization data summary for the Dominican Republic based on the official census data.

Country (Year of Last Census)

2012 Census Popul.

(millions)

Urban Popul.

%

% of the dwellings that are in

urban areas

Total Number of Dwellings

incl. collective

and vacant

Bolivia (2010) 10.027 67.34% 63.72% 3,165,371

Figure 3 shows the urban extent map derived by CIESIN for Bolivia. Terrain and Climate

Terrain: rugged Andes Mountains with a highland plateau (Alt iplano), hil ls, lowland plains of the Amazon Basin;

Climate: varies with altitude; humid and tropical to cold and semiarid;

Highest Elevation: Nevado Sajama 6,542 m.

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Figure 3: CIESIN urban extent map of Bolivia.

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2. Residential Buildings & Dwelling Stock

Households

Bolivia (2011): 2,785,386 (3.85 persons per household). Source: Encuesta de Hogares (Bolivia) 2011.

Dwelling Stock

Bolivia (2012): 3,149,736 dwellings (vacant: 10.1%; occupied: 88.4%; unknown occupancy 1.5%) of which just 2,187 are collective dwellings. The vacancy rate is 8.4% in the urban areas and 13.6% in the rural areas. 4% of the dwellings in the rural areas are classified as abandoned (2.1% in the urban areas, respectively).

Bolivia (2012): 2,975,048 occupied dwellings. Mean occupied dwelling occupancy: 3.37 people per dwelling. Occupancy is 3.56 people per occupied dwelling in the urban areas and 3.04 in the rural areas.

The data on the number of dwelling units are available at the municipality level incl. data on dwelling type, dwelling occupancy, number of households per dwelling, condition of the dwellings, dwellings by external wall material, by roof cover material and by floor material (http://datos.censosbolivia.bo/binbol/RpWebEngine.exe/Portal?&BASE=CPV2012COM). Figure 4 shows Bolivia’s dwelling stock in each of the 9 departments.

Figure 4: Bolivia’s dwelling stock in each of the 9 departments. Dwelling types Table 5 shows the dwelling type data for Bolivia in 2012. All the dwellings (incl. vacant dwellings) are included.

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Table 5: Dwelling type distribution in Bolivia in 2012 (translation in blue).

Tipo de vivienda SF/MF Urban % Rural %

Casa/Choza/Pahuichi (House/Hut, Shack/Natural Fibrous material)

SF 1,485,932 74.0% 1,010,091 88.5%

Departamento (Apartment) MF 134,739 6.7% 3,287 0.3%

Cuarto(s) o habitación(es) suelta(s) (Room(s) with shared facilities)

MF 297,001 14.8% 87,244 7.6%

Vivienda improvisada (Informal Housing)

SF 26,656 1.3% 14,882 1.3%

Local no destinado para vivienda (Houses in sheds, garages, barns, warehouses, caves, natural shelters and others)

SF 40,313 2.0% 16,848 1.5%

Vivienda colectiva (Hoteles, Hospitales, Asilos, Cuarteles, Otros)

MF 23,813 1.2% 8,930 0.8%

TOTAL 2,008,454 100.0% 1,141,282 100.0%

The dwelling type information is useful for splitting the housing stock into single and multi-family occupancies respectively. The reason why we consider this separation necessary is because dwellings in multi-family buildings tend to be built with different construction methods than the single-family dwellings e.g. they can be multi-storeyed and with a higher degree of engineering involved in their construction. We allocated each dwelling typology into single and multi-family occupancy (code: SF, MF) in order to estimate the splits, that are summarised in Table 6. Figure 5 shows the dwelling type distributions in Bolivia’s 9 departments.

Figure 5: Dwelling type distributions in Bolivia’s 9 departments.

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Single to Multi-Family splits The single to multi-family splits in Bolivia as a whole and in the urban and rural areas are summarised in Table 6. The rates were derived from the data of Table 5 (as indicated in the second column from the left) where dwellings in apartment buildings, dwellings in collective housing (cuartos, piezas) or in non-residential buildings or the dwellings shared with a business were considered to have the multi-family characteristics. Table 6: Single to Multi-Family splits in Bolivia as a whole and by inventory region (urban-rural).

SF MF

Bolivia (2012) 82.38% 17.62%

Bolivia -Urban 77.32% 22.68%

Bolivia -Rural 91.29% 8.71%

We see that the proportion of multi-family housing in Bolivia unlike most other countries in the Cental America and Caribbean region is significant (17.6%), especially in the urban areas (22.7%). However the ratio of dwellings in apartment buildings is not so high (6.7% in the urban areas, but only 0.3% in the rural areas). Materials of the external walls Bolivia maintains data on the materials used for the external walls, roof and floor of residential buildings at the individual dwelling level (for the occupied dwellings with persons present, i.e. for 88.4% of the total0. The distribution of external wall material at national level is shown in Table 7 for the country as a whole and by inventory region (urban/rural). The departmental, provincial, municipal level data are also available separately for the urban and rural areas but not shown here for reasons of economy. We see that 51.3% of the dwellings are in the category “Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón”. In addition we see that 6.1% of the dwellings have wooden walls (11.5% in the rural areas), while adobe and rammed earth walls are still very predominant (24% in the urban areas and 63.9% in the rural areas). “Tablique, Quinche” (alternative names for bahareque) take a small part (0.6% in the urban areas, 2.8% in the rural areas). Dwellings with walls from natural fibrous materials (such as palm) constitute just 1.1% of the dwelling stock (2.9% in the rural areas) and are shown in the category “Caña, palma, tronco”. In the category “Otro” belong 0.9% of the dwellings (1.1% in the rural areas). Table 7: Distribution of external wall material of occupied dwellings with persons present in Bolivia (translation in blue).

External Wall Material

No. Dwellings

(ALL)

% URBAN

No. Dwellings %

RURAL No.

Dwellings %

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón (Brick, cement block, concrete)

1,436,001 51.34% 1,291,306 71.01% 144,695 14.78%

Adobe, tapial (rammed earth) 1,062,229 37.97% 436,376 24.00% 625,853 63.94%

Tabique, quinche (Wattle & daub) 38,953 1.39% 11,347 0.62% 27,606 2.82%

Piedra (Stone) 33,759 1.21% 4,004 0.22% 29,755 3.04%

Madera (Wood) 170,685 6.10% 58,426 3.21% 112,259 11.47%

Caña, palma, tronco (Canes, palm, trunks)

31,254 1.12% 3,365 0.19% 27,889 2.85%

Otro 24,348 0.87% 13,542 0.74% 10,806 1.10%

BOLIVIA 2,797,229 100.0% 1,818,366 100.0% 978,863 100.0%

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Figure 6 shows the external wall material distributions in Bolivia’s 9 departments, in the urban and rural areas respectively. The dwellings that have not been classified by external wall material (11.6%) have been excluded from this analysis.

a. Urban

b. Rural

Figure 6a and 6b: External wall material distributions in each of the 9 Bolivia departments (2012 census), in the urban and rural areas respectively.

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We could not find the official definitions of the 2012 Bolivia Housing Census but these are in anycase similar to the definitions used in other countries in the Central America region. The new denominations that appear in the Bolivia census are: Hormigón, Tapial and Tabique. Hormigón is another Spanish word for reinforced concrete, i.e. concreto.

Tapial refers to Rammed Earth contruction, where the walls are made with wet clayish material, compacted by a "ram", using a formwork. The formwork is usually wooden, but can also be metal. In the rammed earth process, two parallel wooden planks are placed, between which the wet clay is poured into tiers of 10 to 15 cm, and compacted with ram strokes. Subsequently the formwork runs to a higher position to continue the wall’s construction. The compacted wet clay wall is left to dry in the sun, and after the wall is completed, the doors and windows are opened using chiseling tools. This is a very old technology in the Latin American region used even before the arrival of Europeans and is especially widespread in the dry areas.

Tabique is another name for the construction of walls in the bahareque (name used in El Salvador and Honduras) or taquezal (name used in Nicaragua) style, i.e. elements of wood placed in the vertical, horizontal and or diagonal (tilted) position and the empty spaces between them filled with earth, mud or other material.

We shall also consider that the 24,348 dwellings in the Otro category are dwellings made with scrap materials (materiales desecho), as in Bolivia there are 34,946 dwellings of the type “vivienda improvisada” that are occupied with persons present. Materials of roof cover Because the categories used in the external wall material tables, do not easily lend themselves to reliable conclusions as to the structural system being used in the construction of the dwellings, we also investigate the roof cover material information captured by the Housing Census of Bolivia. From the roof cover tables it is especially useful to see the incidence of concrete as roof cover material. Concrete would be used in the case of reinforced concrete and in some cases also in reinforced masonry / confined masonry buildings in the region. In Table 8 we see the distribution of roof cover materials in Bolivia. The data have been grouped into 5 broad roof cover categories: (a) concrete, (b) metalic laminated sheets, (c) clay or other tiles or fibrocement (d) natural materials and (e) other roof cover materials and not classified. Table 8: Distribution of roof cover material of the dwellings in the Dominican Republic.

Concrete Laminated

Sheets (metalic)

Clay Tiles or Other Tiles, Fibrocement

Palm/Other natural

Other roof

material SUM

Bolivia - URBAN (2012)

163,493 994,001 607,355 18,612 34,905 1,818,366

8.99% 54.66% 33.40% 1.02% 1.92%

Bolivia - RURAL (2012)

8,128 490,871 172,562 290,117 17,185 978,863

0.83% 50.15% 17.63% 29.64% 1.76%

We note that 9% of the dwellings in urban areas have concrete as roof cover, while nearly 55% of the dwellings in the urban areas and 50% in the rural areas are covered by metalic lamninated sheet roofs (e.g. corrugated iron, zinc, aluminium etc.). Natural fibrous materials (palms, thatch etc.) cover the roof of 29.6% of the dwellings in the rural areas (but only 1% in the urban areas). Figure 6 shows the roof cover material distributions in Bolivia’s 9 departments.

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Figure 6: Roof cover material distributions in Bolivia’s 9 departments. Combination of external wall and roof cover material Table 9 shows the combination of external wall and roof cover material for Bolivia’s urban and rural areas respectively. We see that in the urban areas only 12% of the dwellings with wall of “brick, block of cement or concrete” have concrete slabs as roof cover (nearly 5% in the rural areas). Roofs covered by metal sheets (corrugated iron, aluminium etc.) or clay tiles/concrete tile/fibrocement are very common in houses of all external wall material typologies. The tentative conclusion from the combination of wall and roof cover is that 9% of Bolivia’s dwelling stock in the urban areas is in buildings constructed with reinforced concrete frames or reinforced masonry with concrete floors and respectively 0.8% in the rural areas. Table 9: Combination of external wall and roof cover material distributions for Bolivia’s dwellings, in urban and rural areas.

URBAN AREAS Material of construction most utilized on the roofs

Material of construction most utilized on the external walls

Calamina o plancha metálica

Teja de arcilla, teja

de cemento, fibrocemento

Losa de hormigón armado

Paja, palma, cana, barro

Otro By Ext.

Wall

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón

45.5% 40.3% 12.1% 0.2% 1.9% 71.0%

Adobe, tapial 80.9% 15.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.7% 24.0%

Tabique,quinche 46.7% 39.2% - 11.3% 2.9% 0.6%

Piedra 63.9% 27.5% 1.6% 3.8% 3.1% 0.2%

Madera 64.1% 21.1% 0.1% 9.9% 4.9% 3.2%

Cana, palma, tronco 37.3% 14.4% - 42.7% 5.6% 0.2%

Otro 49.3% 19.5% 3.0% 3.8% 24.5% 0.7%

By Roof Cover 54.7% 33.4% 9.0% 1.0% 1.9% 100.0%

Not Occupied etc. 9.8%

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RURAL AREAS Material of construction most utilized on the roofs

Material of construction most utilized on the external walls

Calamina o plancha metálica

Teja de arcilla, teja

de cemento, fibrocemento

Losa de hormigón armado

Paja, palma, cana, barro

Otro By Ext.

Wall

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón

56.8% 35.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.7% 14.8%

Adobe, tapial 52.7% 15.4% 0.2% 31.4% 0.4% 63.9%

Tabique,quinche 34.6% 19.2% - 40.6% 5.6% 2.8%

Piedra 19.1% 7.6% 0.1% 72.2% 1.1% 3.0%

Madera 50.7% 14.8% 0.0% 30.1% 4.4% 11.5%

Cana, palma, tronco 15.0% 3.1% - 77.9% 4.0% 2.8%

Otro 23.5% 5.0% 0.2% 31.5% 39.8% 1.1%

By Roof Cover 50.1% 17.6% 0.8% 29.6% 1.8% 100.0%

Not Occupied etc. 14.8%

Materials of external walls by occupancy and inventory region Bolivia’s 2012 census provides the urban-rural differentiation in what concerns the external wall material tables and dwelling types (occupancy) in cross tables. It is thus possible to derive the distributions of the dwelling stock by external wall material separately for the 4 combinations of occupancy (single and multi-family) and inventory region (urban and rural). The results are shown in Table 10. Furthermore in Table 11 we present the distributions for the most common class “Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón” (which houses 51.3% of the occupied dwellings in Bolivia, see Table 7) taking also into account the roof cover. This is crucial information when assigning the numerous dwellings of this class to PAGER-STR vulnerability classes (shown in Table 12). Table 10: Material of external walls by occupancy and inventory region in Bolivia (2012 census).

2012 Weight

Ladrillo, Bloque de cemento, Hormigón

Adobe, Tapial

Tabique, Quinche

Piedra Madera Cana, Palma, Tronco

Otro

Bolivia - Urban 0.6372 71.01% 24.00% 0.62% 0.22% 3.21% 0.19% 0.74%

Bolivia - Rural 0.3628 14.78% 63.94% 2.82% 3.04% 11.47% 2.85% 1.10%

Multi Family - Urban 0.2268 80.63% 16.93% 0.46% 0.17% 1.31% 0.05% 0.46%

Multi Family - Rural 0.0871 27.37% 63.20% 2.64% 2.30% 3.71% 0.40% 0.38%

Single Family - Urban 0.7732 68.28% 26.01% 0.67% 0.24% 3.76% 0.22% 0.83%

Single Family - Rural 0.9129 13.67% 64.00% 2.84% 3.11% 12.15% 3.06% 1.17%

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Table 11: Dwellings with walls of “Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón” by roof cover type, occupancy and inventory region in Bolivia (2012 census).

2012 Weight

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento,

hormigón / Concrete

Roof

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento,

hormigón / Metalic Roof

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento,

hormigón / Tile Roof

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento,

hormigón / Other Roof

Bolivia - Urban 0.6372 8.58% 32.33% 28.62% 1.49%

Bolivia - Rural 0.3628 0.71% 8.40% 5.19% 0.48%

Multi Family - Urban 0.2268 9.74% 36.71% 32.49% 1.69%

Multi Family - Rural 0.0871 1.31% 15.56% 9.61% 0.89%

Single Family - Urban 0.7732 8.25% 31.09% 27.51% 1.43%

Single Family - Rural 0.9129 0.66% 7.77% 4.80% 0.45%

Dwelling stock distribution by period of construction The period of construction is an important vulnerability parameter especially in the case of engineered buildings as it is linked to the earthquake code in practice at the time of construction. In Central America much of the dwelling stock is not fully engineered. Unfortunately none of the 5 Central America countries is reporting the age distribution of the dwelling stock in any detail. More work would be needed to further investigate this aspect of vulnerability. A review of history of earthquake codes and their application in Central America is needed. Then the part of the dwelling stock (by type of structure) that is deemed to be constructed according to the various earthquake codes and respective seismic zones in those codes, needs to be assessed.

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3. Fitting to the PAGER-STRUCT Taxonomy

The attribution of external wall material classes in Bolivia to the PAGER-STR taxonomy for earthquake vulnerability assessment purposes is summarized in Table 12. The columns Urban and Rural show the proposed PAGER-STR classes distributions (for single and multi-family dwellings respectively) corresponding to each external wall material class. Table 12: Proposed attribution of external wall material in Bolivia to PAGER-STR taxonomy for earthquake vulnerability assessment by inventory region and occupancy type.

Urban Rural

Material Construcción Paredes Exteriores

PAGER-STR

Single-Family

Multi-Family

Single-Family

Multi-Family

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón

UFB 0.350 0.150 0.300 0.200

UCB 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.600

RM1 0.150 0.200 0.160 0.120

RM2 0.050 0.100 0.020 0.040

C3 0.050 0.100 0.020 0.040

Adobe, tapial A1 0.750 0.850 0.650 0.750

RE 0.250 0.150 0.350 0.250

Tabique, quinche W5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Piedra RS 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Madera W1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cana, palma, tronco W1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Otro INF 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

The proposed distributions of Bolivia’s dwelling stock are shown in Table 13. Table 13: Bolivia’s proposed dwelling stock distribution in terms of PAGER-STR classes separate for single and multi-family occupancy and by inventory region (urban – rural).

Urban Rural

PAGER-STR Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family

Multi-Family

UFB 23.90% 12.09% 4.10% 5.47%

UCB 27.31% 36.28% 6.84% 16.42%

RM1 10.24% 16.13% 2.19% 3.28%

RM2 3.41% 8.06% 0.27% 1.09%

C3 3.41% 8.06% 0.27% 1.09%

A1 19.51% 14.39% 41.60% 47.40%

RE 6.50% 2.54% 22.40% 15.80%

W5 0.67% 0.46% 2.84% 2.64%

RS 0.24% 0.17% 3.11% 2.30%

W1 3.98% 1.36% 15.22% 4.10%

INF 0.83% 0.46% 1.17% 0.38%

Weight 0.7732 0.2268 0.9129 0.0871

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Applying the weights shown at the bottom row of Table 13 we get the urban and rural dwellings distribution regardless of occupancy, which are immediately comparable to those of PAGER-STR (shown in Table 15). This is shown in Table 14. Table 14: Bolivia’s proposed dwelling stock distribution in terms of PAGER-STR classes and by inventory region (urban – rural) and the country as a whole.

Urban

Dwellings Rural Dwellings

PAGER-STR (weight 63.72%)

(weight 36.28%) ALL

UFB 21.22% 4.22% 15.05%

UCB 29.35% 7.67% 21.48%

RM1 11.58% 2.28% 8.20%

RM2 4.47% 0.35% 2.97%

C3 4.47% 0.35% 2.97%

A1 18.35% 42.11% 26.97%

RE 5.60% 21.83% 11.49%

W5 0.62% 2.82% 1.42%

RS 0.22% 3.03% 1.24%

W1 3.38% 14.25% 7.33%

INF 0.74% 1.10% 0.87%

Table 15: Existing PAGER distribution for Bolivia’s dwellings by inventory region (PAGER does not differentiate between single and multi-family occupancies).

Bolivia

Urban Resid.

Rural Resid.

W WOOD 0.035 0.035

W1 Wood Frame, Wood Stud, Wood, Stucco, or Brick Veneer

0.000 0.000

W2 Wood Frame, Heavy Members, Diagonals or Bamboo Lattice, Mud Infill

0.000 0.000

M MUD WALLS 0.010 0.010

A ADOBE BLOCK (UNBAKED DRIED MUD BLOCK) WALLS

0.365 0.365

RS RUBBLE STONE (FIELD STONE) MASONRY 0.002 0.002

RS4 Same as RS1 with cement mortar, vaulted brick roof and floors

0.000 0.000

DS RECTANGULAR CUT STONE MASONRY BLOCK 0.000 0.000

UFB UNREINFORCED FIRED BRICK MASONRY 0.000 0.000

UCB UNREINFORCED CONCRETE BLOCK MASONRY, LIME/CEMENT MORTAR

0.588 0.588

INF INFORMAL CONSTRUCTIONS (PARTS OF SLUMS/SQUATTERS)

0.002 0.002

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High-rise buildings in Bolivia High-rise buildings are hereby defined as those that have at least 12 floors (usually >35m high). There are currently 85 high-rise buildings in Bolivia and another 16 are also under construction. The statistics are shown in Table 16. The data have been extracted from the Emporis site (http://www.emporis.com). Most of the high-rise buildings (61%) are in the capital city of La Paz (Photo 1). In addition there are 6 more high-rise buildings currently under construction in La Paz and the same number in Santa Cruz. Three of these buildings qualify as skyscrapers ( 2 in La Paz and 1 in in Santa Cruz). Table 16: Statistics of existing high-rise buildings (12+ storeys) in Bolivia.

Santa Cruz La Paz Cochabamba Sucre

>=50 storeys - - - -

40-49 storeys - - - -

30-39 storeys - 1 - -

20-29 storeys 2 15 2 1

15-19 storeys 15 24 4 1

12-14 storeys 3 12 5 -

TOTAL 20 52 11 2

Photo 1: La Paz skyline with concentration of tall and high-rise buildings on a linear trend in the city centre. Proposed inventory regions It is considered that in the case of Bolivia it is optimal to have 3 inventory regions as follows:

1. La Paz and Santa Cruz 2. Remaining urban areas of Bolivia 3. Rural Areas of Bolivia.

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In Table 17 we summarize the information related to the capital pf Bolivia (La Paz) as well as the biggest city (Santa Cruz). Both cities have large numbers of high-rise buildings (219 and 213 buildings respectively). Table 17: Key statistics (population, population density, ratio of population to the country total) for La Paz and Santa Cruz (Source: Wikipedia).

Capital City

Founded (Capital as

of)

2012 City

proper Popul. (mill.)

% of Total

Popul. In city proper

Land (Km2)

Density (p/Km2)

Metropo-litan

Popul. (mill.)

% of Total

Popul. In

Metro

Metro Land (Km2)

Metro Density (p/Km2)

Santa Cruz 1561 1.454 14.5% 535 2,718 2.103 21.0% 1407 1,495

La Paz 1548 (1809) 0.844 8.4% 472 1,788 2.364 23.5% 3240 730

We note that nearly 23% of Bolivians live in Santa Cruz and La Paz cities, and 44.5% of Bolivia’s population lives in the metropolitan areas of these 2 cities that include other large cities such as El Alto (in La Paz metro). The population density is higher in Santa Cruz city and Santa Cruz metro. Generally we observe that the building stock characteristics of Santa Cruz and La Paz (as a group) differ significantly from those of the remaining Urban areas of Bolivia. Table 18 shows the external wall distributions in Santa Cruz and La Paz (as a group) as opposed to the remaining urban areas of Bolivia (excl. the 2 cities). We note that the proportion of abobe/tapial is nearly 11% in Santa Cruz and La Paz, as opposed to 30% in the remaining urban areas of Bolivia. Table 18: External wall material distributions in Santo Domingo (Distrito Nacional) as opposed to the average national urban exposure.

External Wall Material

Santa Cruz & La Paz

Urban excl. Santa Cruz & La Paz

Santa Cruz & La Paz (%)

Bolivia Urban Excl.

Santa Cruz & La Paz (%)

Ladrillo, bloque de cemento, hormigón 504,941 786,365 85.86% 63.92%

Adobe, tapial 63,912 372,464 10.87% 30.27%

Tabique, quinche 1,357 9,990 0.23% 0.81%

Piedra 987 3,017 0.17% 0.25%

Madera 12,392 46,034 2.11% 3.74%

Caña, palma, tronco 532 2,833 0.09% 0.23%

Otro 3,945 9,597 0.67% 0.78%

BOLIVIA 588,066 1,230,300 100.00% 100.00%

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4. Estimation of the cost of construction

World Bank “Where is the wealth of Nations” study (2005) The key wealth indicators of Bolivia shown in Table 19 were obtained from the World Bank’s “Where is the wealth of Nations” 2005 study. Table 19: Key wealth indicators of Bolivia for 2005 (World Bank, in 2005 US$).

Bolivia

2005 Population 9,182,015

Total Wealth 138,356,918,965

Intangible Capital 51,583,604,588

Net Foreign Assets -7,850,451,840

Produced Capital 18,362,636,037

Natural Capital 76,261,130,180

Crop 23,536,186,330

Pasture Land 6,341,820,304

Forest - Timber 8,732,735,221

Forest - NTF 13,461,046,422

Protected Areas 4,068,017,817

Oil 6,832,599,751

Natural Gas 13,077,807,161

Hard coal 0

Soft coal 0

Minerals 210,917,174

"Produced Capital (PC)” consists of physical assets generated by applying human productive activities to “natural capital (NC)" and capable of providing a flow of goods or services. It is the sum of machinery, equipment, and structures (including infrastructure) and urban land. Produced capital is sum of physical capital and urban land, which is valued at 24 percent of physical capital across all countries. Natural capital is the sum of Crop, Pasture Land, Timber, Non Timber Forest, Protected Areas, Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, and Minerals, i.e. the sum of non-renewable resources . Intangible capital is the difference between total wealth and all produced and natural capital (IC = TW-PC-NC-NFA), where NFA=net foreign assets. Total Wealth is obtained as follows: TW=NC+PC+IC+NFA. GAR-UNISDR Report (2013) The 2013 GAR-UNISDR Report entitled, Probabilistic Modelling of Natural Risks at the Global Level: Global Risk Model, gives key economic indicator values for Bolivia as seen in Table 20.

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Table 20: Key economic indicators for Bolivia (GAR-UNISDR, 2013)

Bolivia

(ml US$)

Produced Capital Total Exposure 13,112

Gross National Expenditure (GNE) 18,301

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GCF) 1,619

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 19,650

Gross National Income (GNI) 18,790

Produced Capital Fiscal 4,521

Gross National Savings (GNS) 4,912

The Produced Capital value for Bolivia in this report is lower by 28.6% compared to the value proposed by the World Bank in 2005. Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook (2013) Credit Suisse released its latest global wealth report on October 10, 2013. The key indicators for Bolivia from that report are summarized in Table 21. Table 21: Wealth indicators for Bolivia (Credit Suisse, 2013).

Bolivia

Population (2013) 10,529,000

Number of Adults (2013) 5,800,000

Mean Wealth per capita (2013, US$) 2,536

Mean Wealth per adult (2013, US$) 4,604

Median Wealth per Adult (2013, US$) 1,368

Mean Financial Wealth per adult (2013, US$) 841

Mean Non-Financial Wealth per adult (2013, US$) 4,269

Mean Debt per adult (2013, US$) 506

Wealth Data Quality Poor

Estimation Method Updated

Regression

The mean non-financial wealth per adult value refers in its overwhelming majority to the current market value of dwellings. There are roughly 1.75 adults per dwelling in Bolivia, which suggests a mean dwelling value of around 7,500 US$; Assuming that the average dwelling in Bolivia is around 58 m2 (needs further investigation), we estimate a mean house unit value (market prices) of 129 US$/m2. This is a very low value and can only be referred to as a rough indicator. Doing Business Reports (World Bank, 2014) The US$ cost of building a standard 2-storey warehouse of 1300.6m2 incl. fees in La Paz is shown in Table 22 (for 2013 and 2014 respectively).

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Table 22: Cost of building a warehouse in La Paz (in 2013 and 2014).

Doing Business Reports Bolivia (BOB)

2013 1,859,863

2014 1,770,697

per sqm (local currency, 2014)

1,361

local currency exchange rate to US$ (31/10/13)

6.91

per sqm (US$, 2014) 197

Thus the estimated unit cost of construction incl. related costs and fees in 2014 in La Paz is estimated by the 2014 Doing Business report of the World Bank to be 197 US$/m2. Proposed Unit Cost of Construction for Residential Buildings For the residential sector the proposed unit cost of construction incl. costs and fees for Bolivia in urban and rural areas, for single and multi-family occupancy respectively are shown in Table 23. Table 23: Proposed unit cost of residential construction incl. costs and fees for urban and rural areas in Bolivia for single and multi-family buildings in 2014 US$ per m2.

Urban Rural

PAGER-STR Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family Multi-Family

UFB 310 260 270 230

UCB 285 235 250 200

RM1 315 300 270 255

RM2 340 325 290 275

C3 470 415 400 360

A1 140 125 120 105

RE 150 135 130 115

W5 150 125 125 105

RS 265 240 225 205

W1 215 210 175 170

INF 65 60 55 50

TOTAL 260 250 153 143

Weight 0.7732 0.2268 0.9129 0.0871

Urban/Rural 257 152

Bolivia 219

Proposed Unit Cost of Construction for Non-Residential Buildings

The proposed unit costs of construction for the requested non-residential occupancy types in Bolivia are shown in Table 24. Cost of construction for non-residential buildings is considered to be quite similar in urban and rural areas (particularly for warehouses and industrial buildings).

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Assuming a distribution of the existing non-residential floor area in each of the three proposed inventory regions as shown in the rightmost three columns of Table 24 (an area that clearly needs more research, incl. looking at the employment statistics by economic sector in each of the inventory regions), would shed a unit cost of construction in the non-residential sector 478 US$/m2 in the Dominican Republic. The differences in the mean unit cost of construction in each inventory region also result mostly from the different mix of occupancies in each inventory region. Table 24: Proposed unit cost of construction incl. associated costs and fees in urban and rural areas of Bolivia, for the specified non-residential occupancy types (2014, US$/m2).

Santa Cruz & La Paz Urban Rural

Santa Cruz & La Paz Urban Rural

Commercial – Retail 320 305 285 10.0% 8.0% 3.0%

Commercial or other type of Warehouse 270 260 250 10.0% 14.0% 30.0%

Commercial – Offices (incl. government administration) 550 500 490 23.0% 16.0% 8.0%

Critical Buildings – Schools, Hospitals, Medical Centers 600 590 570 43.0% 39.0% 34.0%

Industrial 285 270 260 14.0% 23.0% 25.0%

Weight of invent. region 25.0% 40.0% 35.0%

Cost by invent. Region (US$/m2) 483 433 382

COMBINED UNIT COST (US$/m2) 428