bold ideas - perpetual energy inc · assumptions (mcdaniel ye 2015) year 1 pricing $2.55/ gj...
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A G M P R E S E N TAT I O N | M A R C H 2 4 , 2 0 1 6
BOLD IDEAS
FOR ENERGY
1
This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current expectations,estimates and projections about its business and operations. Words and phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "believes," "estimates," "projected," "future,""goals," "forecast," "plan," "opportunities," "upside," "will," "impact," "target," "2015 through 2016" and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements pertaining to: Perpetual's business diversification and price risk managementstrategies which include the transitioning from shallow gas assets to resource-style, growth orientated oil and NGL assets and divestitures to optimize value anddecrease debt; projected economics for various projects; future capital expenditure levels; expected compliance with credit facility covenants in 2015 and 2016 the topstrategic priorities for 2015 and beyond. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors,some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecastedin such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.Unless legally required, Perpetual undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events orotherwise.
Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: inaccuracies in the estimated timingand amount of future production of natural gas and oil due to numerous factors including permit delays or restrictions, weather, equipment failures, delays or lack ofavailability, unexpected subsurface or geologic conditions, lack of capital, increases in the costs of rented or contracted equipment, increases in labor costs, volumesof oil or gas greater or lesser than anticipated, and changes in applicable regulations and laws; unexpected problems with wells or other equipment, unexpectedchanges in operating costs and other expenses, including utilities, labor, transportation, well and oil field services, taxes, permit fees, regulatory compliance and othercosts of operation; decreases in natural gas and oil prices, including price discounts and basis differentials; difficulties in accurately estimating the discovery, volumes,development potential and replacement of natural gas and oil reserves; the impact of economic conditions on our business operations, financial condition and ability toraise capital; variances in cash flow, liquidity and financial position; a significant reduction in our bank credit facility's borrowing base; availability of funds from thecapital markets and under our back credit facility; our level of indebtedness; the ability of financial counterparties to perform or fulfill their obligations under existingagreements; write downs of our asset carrying values and oil and gas property impairment; the discovery of previously unknown environmental issues; changes in ourbusiness and financial strategy; inaccuracies in estimating the amount, nature and timing of capital expenditures, including future finding and development costs; theinability to predict the availability and terms of capital; issues with marketing of natural gas and oil including lack of access of markets, changes in pipeline andtransportation tariffs and costs, increases in minimum sales quality standards for oil or natural gas, changes in the supply-demand status of gas or oil in a givenmarket area, and the introduction of increased quantities of natural gas or oil into a given area due to new discoveries or new delivery systems; the impact of weatherlimiting or damaging operations and the occurrence of natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other catastrophic events and naturaldisasters; the high-risk nature of drilling and producing natural gas and oil, including blow-outs, surface caterings, fires, explosions; the competitiveness of alternateenergy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; changes in governmental regulation of the natural gas and oil industry potentially leading toincreased costs and limited development opportunities; changes in governmental regulation of derivatives; developments in natural gas-producing and oil-producingcountries potentially having significant effects on the price of gas and oil; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles andIFRS promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the amount of future abandonment and reclamation costs, asset retirement and environmental obligations; expectedrealization of gas over bitumen royalty adjustments; inability to execute strategic plans and realize projected economics, expectations and objectives for futureoperations and price risk management strategies; and the other risk factors identified in our most recent financial statements and management's discussion andanalysis and Annual Informational Form and our other filings on SEDAR. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed herein also could have material adverseeffects on our business and operations and on the forward-looking statements contained herein. Also included in this presentation are estimates of Perpetual'sconsolidated net debt and 2015 funds flow, which are based on the various assumptions as to production levels, capital expenditures, and other assumptions(including price assumptions for natural gas and oil) and the effects of the West Edson property disposition. To the extent any such estimate constitutes a financialoutlook, it was approved by management and the Board of Directors of Perpetual on March 12, 2015 and is included to provide readers with an understanding ofPerpetual's anticipated funds flows based on the capital expenditure and other assumptions described herein and readers are cautioned that the information may notbe appropriate for other purposes.
2
Forward Looking Statements
Perpetual Energy Inc.
3
Common shares o/s (1) 1,047 million
Management ownership ~49%
Share price $ 0.07
Market capitalization $ 73 million
Total net debt (2) $ 150 million
Net bank debt (2) $ 32 million
Financing arrangement (3) $ 21 million
Senior unsecured notes $ 275 million
TOU Shares 6.25 million @ $28.50/share
($ 178 million)
Enterprise value $ 223 million
(1) Pro-forma share consolidation at 20:1 = 52.4 million(2) Estimated current bank debt, net of working capital; includes reserve-based facility and
TOU share-based margin loan(3) Settle amount at November 2016 maturity; Secured by 1 million of the TOU Shares
4
Diversified portfolio for value creation
Spectrum of opportunities to optimize value through variable commodity cycles
Mannville
Mannville EOR
Heavy Oil Exploration
HEAVY OIL
Edson Wilrich
Greater Edson Multi-zone
Edson Secondary Zones
Deep Basin Exploration
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
Eastern Alberta Conventional
Viking / Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
SHALLOW GAS
BITUMEN
Panny Bluesky
Liege Grosmont & Leduc
Other
OTHER
Warwick Gas Storage
Waskahigan Duvernay
GOB Technical Solutions
Tight Oil and Gas Exploration
OTHER
5
• Conventional shallow gas
• Mannville heavy oil
• Bitumen
• Warwick gas storage
• Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
Eastern Alberta
• Edson Wilrich
• Multi-zone liquids-rich gas
• Tight oil & gas exploration
Deep Basin
Operating profile
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS East Edson
Other Deep Basin
SHALLOW GASLegacy conventional assets, Tight shallow gas
HEAVY OILMannville
BITUMENPanny, Liege, Other
GAS STORAGE
Warwick
Production (1) 19,706 boe/d
Natural Gas 104 MMcf/d
Oil and NGL 2,337 bbl/d
P+P Reserves (2) 77.8 MMboe
Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI) (2) 12 Years
Bitumen (3) 279 MMbbl
Warwick Gas Storage Capacity (gross) (4) 19.1 Bcf
Tourmaline Oil Corp. Shares – 6.25 million (5) ~180 million
(1) Year Ended December 31 2015
(2) Year Ended December 31 2015
(3) 425 sections at year end 2015; Internal contingent resource estimate
(4) 30% ownership interest
(5) March 22, 2016 market price of $28.50/share
6
Portfolio management strategy 2016
Entrepreneurial approach to value creation
Re-invest to mitigate declines
Edson liquids-rich gas
Mannville heavy oil Waterflood
Maximize Cash & Preserve Value
Conventional shallow gas
Warwick Gas Storage
Mannville heavy oil
Optimize & Advance
Mannville heavy oil EOR
Viking/Colorado shale gas
Waskahigan Duvernay
Tight oil & gas exploration
Bitumen – Panny / Liege
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM
VALUE STRATEGIES
PROVENDIVERSIFYING
GROWTH STRATEGIES
CASH FLOW GENERATORS
7
2016 Top four strategic priorities
Strategic priorities focus our activities
1. Reduce debt & restore cash flow
2. Grow value & scope of Greater Edson liquids-rich gas
3. Maximize value potential of Eastern Alberta assets
4. Advance high impact opportunities
KEY PRIORITY #1
REDUCE DEBT AND RESTORE CASH FLOW
9
2015 Asset Transactions
West Edson swap $ 258 million
6.75 million TOU shares
6.25 million remaining
Closed April 1/2015; MTM ~$180 MM
Fee Simple land sale $ 21 million
Royalties & seismic
Closed April 10/2015
Recapitalization Transactions
Convertible Debenture Settlement
Issued 230 million PMT shares $ 35 million
Closed Dec 31/2015
Rights Offering $ 25 million
Issued 665 million PMT shares
Closed Jan 18/2016
2016 Asset Transactions
Oil Sands leases $ 6.1 million
37 sections
Closed March 2016
Debt reduction
Targeting additional asset sales for further debt reduction
~$150 MM(1)
(1) Rights Offering & TOU Share Appreciation Estimate March 2016
10
West Edson transaction summary
Desire to retain maximum exposure
Swap of West Edson property for 6.75 million Tourmaline Shares
•24 MMboe of reserves 7.2 MMboe (29%) proved and probable developed producing 16.8 MMboe undeveloped reserves requiring ~$124.5 million of future development capital over 7- 10 years
•5,750 boe/d of production (95% gas)
•2015 negative funds flow impact of ~$15 - $20 million
Transaction Rationale
•Swap for exposure to upside potential in West Edson but also well-funded Alberta Deep Basin and BC Montney portfolio through TOU shares
• Improve liquidity
•Strengthen financial position and optionality Bolsters ability to manage future debt obligations
Allows flexibility to fund capital program to capture inherent value in East Edson and other high impact assets
Enhanced lending value for TOU shares relative to West Edson reserves (20% proved producing)
Improves cost and access to capital to pursue new strategic initiatives
•Enhance ability to manage downside risk in low commodity price environment
•Neutral to reserve-based NAV discounted at 10%
•Reduce net debt, considering TOU shares as a direct offset
Current Holdings 6.25 million shares @ MTM value of $180 million
Extend
Maturities
• Bank debt maturities extended to October 31, 2016
• Revised financial covenants provide increased flexibility and stability
• $35 million reduction of debt through settlement of Convertible Debentures through issuance of PMT Common Shares
Recapitalization transactions
Debt
Reduction
Preserve
Asset Base to
Maintain Value
Potential
• Allows us to maintain attractive current assets and operations
• Full upside to Tourmaline shares preserved
Improve
Liquidity
• $25 million of new equity capital through Rights Offering
• $18 million from New Financing Arrangement increases liquidity through securitization of 1 million Tourmaline shares
Recapitalization transactions enhance balance sheet strength
12
Post-Recapitalization balance sheet
Net Bank Debt: ~$32 million(1)
• Borrowing base on credit facility - $62 million $20 million reserve-based loan
– Opened up for redetermination due to falling commodity prices – March 2016
– Historically calculated net of $40 million grind for senior notes
$42 million margin loan secured by 5.25 million TOU shares– Single one time only draw (no revolving feature)
– Interest rate = prime + 4.75% (~6.45%)
– Loan to value ratio = 33.3% (3.0 times margin coverage)
– Term margin loan matures on October 31, 2016
Senior Unsecured Debt: Face Value $275 million; Market Value ~$150 million
New Financing Arrangement: $21 million
• Established downside protection on 1 million TOU Shares to enhance collateral lending value
• Carrying amount $18 million - All costs prepaid
• Matures November 2016
TOU Shares: 6.25 million shares @ $28.50/share = $180 million
Total Debt Net of TOU Shares: ~$150 million
TOU Shares provide significant offset to future debt obligations
(1) Current Estimate March 2016
SeriesAmount
OutstandingCoupon
RateMaturity
Date
Current Trading
PriceCurrent
YieldMarket Value
8.75% 2018 $150 million 8.75% March 2018 $55.00 63.3% $82.5
8.75% 2019 $125 million 8.75% July 2019 $53.00 38.7% $66.3
13
2015/2016 Capital spending
• 2015 Excludes abandonment and reclamation spending of $ 7.2 Million• 2016 Excludes abandonment and reclamation spending estimate of $ 2.5 Million
2015
Activity Capital
2016
Q1
2016
Q2-Q4
2016
Total
West Central
Liquids-Rich Gas
6 gross (4.5 net) wells
West Wolf Facility$ 67.5 MM
$ 5 MM
1 gross
(1 net well)
$ 2.3 MM$ 7.3 MM
Mannville Heavy OilWaterflood
facilities $ 1.4 MM $ 1 MM $ 0.1 $ 0.2 MM
Eastern Shallow Gas and
Other
Recompletions/
Workovers/
Optimization
$ 1.9 MM $ 0.1 MM $ 0.7 MM $ 0.8 MM
Panny Pilot2 gross
(2.0 net)$ 4.6 MM $ 0.0 MM $ 0.0 MM
Total $ 75.4 MM $ 5.2 MM $ 3.1 MM $ 8.3 MM
Adjustable capital program focused on mitigating declines and net cash flow generation
KEY PRIORITY #2
GROW VALUE AND SCOPE OF GREATER
EDSON LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
16-10 CompressorCapacity 30 MMcf/d
To Rosevear Plant (15% WI)
West Wolf Lake10-3 Gas Plant
Capacity 45 MMcf/d
Pipeline To EdsonDeep Cut Plant
Edson Wilrich Liquids–rich gas
PERPETUAL
Pre-2014 Drill
2014 Drill
2015 Q1 Drill
2016 Q1 Drill (1)
2016 Q3/Q4 Drill (3)
2017 Proposed Drill (6)
East Edson JV Lands
Inventory of 138 gross (123 net) undrilled locations 87 gross (79 net) booked in reserve report
16
East Edson type curves
Dec 31,
Average well consistently beats McDaniel Type Curve, even though rates for most wells were curtailed pending new plant commissioning in early July 2015, and expansion in September 2015
Projected Economics per SW Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $ 4.8 MM
NPV @ 10 % $ 2.4 MM
ROR 33% BT
F&D $ 8.50 / boe
Capital Efficiency $9,000 boe/d
Payout 2.6 Years
Recycle Ratio 1.7
Assumptions (McDaniel YE 2015)
Year 1 Pricing $2.55/ GJ (Aeco); $32.23/ bbl NGL
Operating Costs
$2.72/ boe (first year)
Well Depth 4,600 M HZ; 2,500 TVD
Type CurveIP 6.5 MMcf/d1 year exit rate 1.8 MMcf/d11.5 bbl/MMcf NGL/condensate
2P Reserves 3.4 Bcfe per well
McDaniel SW Type CurveMcDaniel NE Type Curve
18 JV wells drilled to complete all near term commitments, with 3 remaining wells required by 2023. Well performance above type curves.
17Production from West Edson swap for TOU shares effectively replaced upon start-up of new East Edson Plant in July 2015
Greater Edson production growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
Gas
Rat
e (
Mm
cf/d
)
Greater Edson Daily Production
Edson Ansell
TCPL Restrictions
40% net production growth in 2014
•Driven by West Edson expansion from 15 to 30 MMcf/d net
• Ramp up to fill existing East Edson facilities with JV drilling
• 30 MMcf/d by year end 2014
136% net production growth in 2015
•Growth despite swap of West Edson (30 MMcf/d net plus associated liquids) effective April 1
• Constructed new 30 MMcf/d East Edson plant onstream July 2015
• Expanded East Edson plant to 45 MMcf/d September 2015
• Infrastructure ownership drove low Q4 op costs of $2.46 per boe
•Drilled to fill East Edson facilities and transportation contracts
30 MMcf/d in H1 ramping up to 60 MMcf/d in H2
Improved results required 5 less wells in 2015 than forecast to achieve capacity through the year
Preserving Value in 2016 low gas price environment
• Current capital plan includes 1 drill and complete
Continued growth potential in 2017 through 2018
•Drill to fill existing infrastructure as appropriate
East Edson – Up to 75 MMcfe/d capacity (full year effect)
• Potential further expansion at East Edson plant of additional 15 MMcfe/d to take area capacity to 90 MMcfe/d
Secondary Viking, Notikewin and Fahler horizontal development potential supported by 3D seismic exploration
18
Greater Edson liquids-rich gas play performance
Infrastructure and inventory in place for continued growth
East Edson
West Edson
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rod
uct
ion
(M
Bo
e)
Bo
e/d
KEY PRIORITY #3
MAXIMIZE VALUE OF EASTERN ALBERTA ASSETS
20
Eastern Alberta – Conventional heavy oil
Capital focused on waterflood implementation in 5 main pools
Drilling deferred due to low oil prices to preserve development inventory
8 Producing Mannville pools *
• 6 Lloyd, 1 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz
• > 136 MMbbl Original Oil in Place
• > 6 MMbbl @ 5% recovery factor
• Current Production ~ 1,100 bbl/d
Low cost HZ development• $1 - $1.2 MM single or dual lateral HZ well
• Average initial rate ~80 bbl/d
2015 Capital activity
• $2.2 MM of waterflood expansion
• Additional injection conversions in 3 pools
• Source water conversion to supply additional water
• Facility and pipeline expansion
2016 Capital activity plans
• Up to $1.2 MM of waterflood expansion
• Additional 4 injection conversions
• Facility and pipeline expansion to optimize operating costs
Mannville
Current Injectors
2016 Recommendations
* 6 of 8 pools shown
21
Mannville heavy oil value potential
Highly profitable in oil price recovery
Projected Economics Per Well
Lloyd Sparky
Capital (D,C & T) $1.2 MM $1.2 MM
NPV @ 10 % $1.6 MM $0.8 MM
ROR ~ 200% ~ 95%
F&D $13.50 / Boe $20.50 / Boe
Payout 0.7 Year 1.2 Year
Capital Efficiency ~$15,000/Boe/d ~$25,000/Boe/d
Recycle Ratio 3.0 2.7
Oil over shakers while drilling Sparky development pad HZ pad site
Assumptions
(McDaniel Year End 2013)
2014 Pricing$68.90/bbl Wellhead heavy priceWTI $US95/bbl, WCS $US23.5/bbl, offset $7.60/bbl
Operating Costs$6.23/Boe (first year) &$12.60/Boe (lifetime)
Average WellLloyd IP 120 bbl/d to 75 bbl/d after year 1Sparky IP 85 bbl/d to 44 bbl/d after year 1
2P Reserves90 Mbbl per Lloyd well60 Mbbl per Sparky well
Royalties5% for first 18 months on Crown; variable on Freehold
22
Waterflood and enhanced oil recovery
Waterflood injection optimization through 2015 showing increasing oil response
Working Interest 66.7%
OOIP: 38 MMbbl Cum Prod’n + McDaniel P+P: 1.5 MMbbl (4%
recovery factor) technical recovery
19 Horizontals drilled to date
11 infill locations remain
Implementing Waterflood 7 injectors converted in 2013/2014
1 injection conversion 2016-2017
Sparky Mid Type Log100/09-32-050-08W4/00
6 m OIL PAY
Sparky Mid Sand
> 24 % DENSITY POROSITY
Mannville I2IWaterflood Pool
0
200
400
600
800
1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Oil
bb
l/d
Upper Mannville I2I Waterflood Update
Oil Rate
Oil Base Forecast
Internal Forecast
McDaniel YE 2015
Base Forecast
Wat
er
Inje
ctio
n S
tart
Internal Forecast McDaniel YE 2015Actuals
23
Early waterflood response
Positive initial waterflood response in Mannville B pool supports progressing full waterflood expansion
0
40
80
120
160
200
1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Oil
Rat
e, b
bl/
d
NE portion Mannville B Pool - Lower Channel Sand
Oil RateOil Base ForecastMcDaniel YE2015Internal Forecast
Actuals
Base Forecast
Water Injection Start
Internal Forecast McDaniel YE 2015
0
40
80
120
160
1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Oil
Rat
e, b
bl/
d
Single pattern Mannville B Pool - Regional Lloyd Sand
Oil RateOil Base ForecastMcDaniel YE 2015Internal Forecast
Actuals
BaseForecast
Water Injection Start
Internal Forecast McDaniel YE 2015
24
Waterflood and enhanced oil recovery scope
Large scope for increased reserves and value through waterfloods and possible polymer floods
Select Pools OOIP
(MMbbl)
Cumulativeproduction to YE 2015
(MMbbl)
P+P Reserves booked at YE 2015(MMbbl)
Implied Recovery
Factor
(%)
Expected Primary
Recovery(5-8%)(MMbbl)
Potential withSecondary Recovery
and EOR(10-15%)(MMbbl)
Sparky I2I 35 0.7 0.7 4.3% 1.8 – 2.8 3.5 – 5.3
Upper Mannville B (1) 77 2.5 1.6 5.3% 3.8 – 6.2 7.7 – 11.5
Upper Mannville T8T 10 0.2 0.6 7.6% 0.5 – 0.8 1.0 – 1.4
Total 122 3.4 2.9 5.2% 6.1 – 9.8 12.2 - 18.2
4 to 6 X
(1) Reflects former Upper Mann A & B pools currently merged – AER
25
Conventional shallow gas
Reduced asset retirement obligation by close to $50 million in 2015 through multi-faceted, full life cycle operating approach
Belly River
Viking
Grand Rapids
Lower Mannville
Pre Cretaceous Unconformity
Legacy asset base characteristics
Northeast and East Central Alberta
Cretaceous and Devonian sweet shallow gas < 800m
Current production ~ 50 MMcf/d
Base declines < 10-15%
Multiple stacked zones and play types
Extensive plant and pipeline infrastructure with material unutilized capacity
Low base royalty rate of ~ 5% at <$5/Mcf
High fixed operating costs driven by municipal taxes and large number of low volume wells
Netbacks highly leveraged to natural gas prices
Operational Focus
Facility optimization projects, workovers and uphole recompletions payout in months
Low cost production and reserves adds (<$10,000/boe/d; <$1.00/Mcf)
Drive fixed and variable operating cost reductions
Metering, municipal taxes, scaled-back operational approach, ARO
Prospecting for tight reservoirs in high resource potential traps that now can be exploited with horizontal wells and multi-stage frac technologies
26
Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
>130 TCF Resource In Place
OGIP estimated average 16 Bcf/section
200-300m gas saturated shale section 6 prospective zones
Viking
Booked reserves 12 Bcf PNP booked in recompletions
Historical 2P reserves of 100+ Bcf removed from bookings due to price revisions
Proven development & capital commitment could drive substantial future bookings
Colorado Group
> 1 TCF potential recoverable resource HZ development at ~8+ wells / section
Over 1,200 net prospective sections
Extensive plant & pipeline infrastructure
Develop with Viking & Mannville tight sands to reduce costs & enhance economics
2015
Evaluated competitor activity to further refine frac design, performance & costs expectations
Encouraging in $3+ gas price environment
2016
Horizontal pilot ready to execute
Encouraging results from competitor operations
Full scale development improves netbacks on existing shallow gas operations
Belly River Play Fairway
Cardium/ Colorado Wells
Perpetual Lands
Historical Viking Reserves
Proved Undeveloped
Probable Undeveloped
Reserves Proven Non-Producing
Competitor horizontal drills
KEY PRIORITY #4
ADVANCE HIGH IMPACT OPPORTUNITIES
28
Warwick gas storage
Non-depleting, long life, diversifying assetCash flow growth potential as spreads normalize to historical levels
• 40 Bcf Storage Reservoir• Delta Pressure to 47 Bcf 10 Bcf base reserves cushion gas
in place Up to 25 Bcf potential working
gas capacity• 1.2 to 1.5 cycle facility
WGSI Leases
Well Site Pad
Storage Facility
Pipeline
Horizontal Wells
2012 Hz Wells
TCPL Pipeline
Commercial ‘Park and Loan’ business
30 to 50 year life
Grass Roots Development Existing depleted gas pool Facility Construction 2010
19 - 21.5 Bcf working gas capacity
Expansion Potential Delta pressuring to increase working gas to
24.5 Bcf with minimal incremental costs
30% Perpetual Interest
Manage WGS LP for annual fee
Diversified Cash Flow 2012 & 2013 ~$11 million/year gross
Electrical fire upset operations and reduced
cash flow in 2014 & 2015
2016 projected cash flow ~$10 million gross
29
Waskahigan Duvernay volatile oil play
Volatile oil/high liquids gas play proven prospective on PMT acreage
Monitoring test well & play development to evaluate costs and performance
AOC Farm-in: • Drilled & completed 16-36-63-25W5
• PMT retains 35% in 6 sections & 100% in 3.75 sections
• Land continued to 2019
16-36 Production• Onstream Dec 1, 2015
• Average daily production December
289 Bbl/d Condensate
277 Mcf/d Gas
• ~21 Bbl / MMcf C5+
• ~93 Bbl / MMcf C3/C4
• Downhole pump installation March 2016 to optimize production
Full Development Potential:• OOIP > 86 MMbbl (44 net)
• ~8 wells per section
• 64 gross (32 net) wells
PMT ( 35% WI)
PMT (100% WI)
AOC Drills
AOC Licenses
Apache Licenses
Chevron Drills
Chevron Licenses
CIOC Drills
Encana Drills
Encana Licenses
Duvernay Net Pay
Contour Interval = 5m
Simonette
Leduc Reef
16-36
Deep Valley
Gas Plant
Richer/Volatile
Oils
Leaner/Gas
Condensates
13-1Cum to date 84 MSTB Oil
(17 months)
396 net sections (253,000 net acres) of oil sand leases
Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods
7 potential project areas with varying potential
Over 3 billion bbls OBIP independently recognized at Liege and Panny
278 MMbbl contingent resource
467 MMbbl additional prospective resource
Sold 37 net sections of select oil sands leases for $6.1 million in Q1 2016
30
Bitumen
Bitumen lands represent large resource in place and material option value
Panny
Ells
North & South Liege
Wabasca
Hoole
Perpetual OS Leases
Perpetual Panny Pilot
Experimental
Primary Projects
Thermal Projects
Other Projects
Major Oil Pipelines
Laricina Saleski
Carbonate Pilot
Athabasca Oil
Dover West Carb Pilot
Husky Saleski
Carbonate Pilot
CNRL
Cherpeta
CNRL
S. Brintnell
CNRL
S. Wabasca
CNRL
Wabasca N.
CNRL
Woodenhouse
Husky
Amadou
Husky
McMullen
Crescent Pt.
BrintnellHusky
McMullen Thermal Pilot
Sunshine
Harper
Sunshine
West Ells
CNRL
McLaren
Brion
Dover
Cavalier
Hoole
Koch
Muskwa
Sunshine
Thickwood
Marathon
Birchwood
OSUM
Sepiko Kesik
Prosper
Rigel
Sunshine
Legend Lake
Koch
DunkirkAndora
Sawn Lake
N. Alberta Oil
Sawn Lake
Grizzly
Thickwood
Cenovus
Pelican LakeCenovus
Pelican Lake Grand Rapids
Southern Pacific
STP McKay
CNRL
Brintnell
Black Pearl
Blackrod Pilot
Suncor Dover Demo
Suncor
MacKay River
Perpetual
Panny
LEAD Pilot
31
Bitumen – Panny Bluesky
Excellent reservoir quality in Bluesky homogeneous estuarine sand facies
RoadsNatural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent PipelinePerpetual Gas PlantPerpetual Oil Sands RightsOther Perpetual Lands
Low rate cold flow without solvent or thermal assistance
Average pay thickness 11 m
Low viscosity bitumen
• ~15,000 cp at 25oC
• 50,000 cp at 11oC reservoir temp
• Highly mobile at ~70oC
Panny Bluesky Resource Assessment
• 755 MMbbl Discovered OBIP (McDaniel 2011)
• Reservoir simulation model supports >50% recovery factor
• Resource to support >25,000 bbl/d commercial project for 20 - 25 years
LEAD Pilot Phase 1 – now operating
• Phase 1 consists of a single horizontal well
• Heating commenced in October 2015
• First production in March 2015
• Production is exceeding expectations by >100%
• IETP funding reimburses 30% of all capital and operations costs
Experimenting with lower energy intensity extraction technologies than traditional steam-based thermal methods to mobilize bitumen
Panny LEAD Pilot
32
LEAD process technology pilot Low pressure electro-thermally assisted drive
Electrical heating cable with water injection for mobility and pressure support
First stage of pilot – single well Cyclic Heat Stimulation currently operating
Electrical resistive heating and production in a single horizontal well to validate reservoir flow model and heater technology
Two highly instrumented observation wells in close proximity to the horizontal heater well monitoring reservoir response
Commenced electrical heating in October 2015
First oil production in March 2016, currently exceeding cumulative oil production expectations by >100%
Second stage of pilot – an additional $20 to $30 million
Guided by first stage learnings
Initial 10,000 to 15,000 bbl/d development if pilot successful
Drilling-intensive technology allows for scalability without large upfront capital commitment of steam projects
Top Gas
Heaters / Injectors
Oil
Producer
LEAD Pilot Stage 2 Configuration
INVESTMENT THESIS
EXTREME VALUE DISCOUNT TO ASSET VALUE
LEVERAGED TO GAS PRICE RECOVERY
AND ‘BEST IN CLASS’ GAS E&P (TOU)
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Sum of the parts
Trading materially below reserve-based net asset value
NAV• Year End 2015 reserves and inventory with market-to-market adjustments for TOU share
price appreciation, rights offering, March 2016 debt and share consolidation
(1) 6.25 million TOU shares @ $28.50/share(2)(3) Includes appreciation of TOU shares based on 12 month TOU consensus target price of $ 35.68/share
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Key investment highlights
High Quality Assets
Asset base repositioning for resource-style and diversification successful
Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas inventory well-defined
Mannville heavy oil delivering diversified cash flow with material secondary recovery potential
Prospects for short and long term growth from resource-style plays
Increasing percentage of higher netback production in asset mix
Exposed to premium asset base through TOU share ownership
Alberta Deep Basin, BC Montney & Peace River High Charlie Lake plays
Track Record of Operational Performance
Execution and operational excellence in chosen strategies
Multiple Levers to Manage Balance Sheet
80% of debt has term into 2018 and beyond
Multiple ‘levers’ available to manage debt obligations
Pursuing further asset dispositions to continue to reduce outright debt leverage
TOU shares provide offset for future debt obligations
Recapitalization transactions create modest liquidity to execute prudent capital spending program and survive commodity price collapse
Value
Trading below ‘Reserve-Based’ Net Asset Value through Equity Transaction Uncertainty
Net asset value materially connected to TOU share value at 50% of enterprise value
High impact value potential from medium to long term assets
Tremendous leverage to oil and gas price cycle recovery in 2016 and beyond
Spectrum of opportunities for value creation upon emergence from bottom of commodity price cycle
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Sue Riddell Rose President & CEO
Cam Sebastian Vice President, Finance & CFO
[email protected] EMAIL
800.811.5522 TOLL FREE
403.269.4400 PHONE
403.269.4444 FAX
3200, 605 – 5 Avenue SWCalgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H5
W W W. P E R P E T U A L E N E R G Y I N C . C O M