2008-06-06

BMD CPO FUTURESTECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

presented byKK LOH

CIMB FUTURES SDN BHD.25TH MAY 2008

Tel: 012-2990288Email: kklohcimb@gmail.com

2008-06-06

Natural Cycle of Sustainability.Observations:Natural Cycle of Sustainability has been disrupted due to global warming, over population & excessive demand.

Global warming/extreme weather patterns has been disrupting food supply.

While on the other hand, over population & excessive demand esp from the developed nations is increasing demand pressures.

2008-06-06

Natural Cycle of Sustainability.Resulting Effect.

UNPRECEDENTED GLOBAL INFLATION.

Generalized conclusion is that high prices are here to stay.

The key issue to address in a volatile & rising market is, what is the low end of the price range to source supply?

Natural Cycle of Sustainability. Resulting Effect. Apart from Crude Oil, most commodity prices have

peaked out just recently. Most soft essential commodities are trading within a

higher - but stable immediate range.

Price elasticity at work with demand rationing versus supply /acreage increases due to higher prices.

However, in the longer term, weather vagaries, population growth, arable land & Crude Oil prices (the prime Multiplier Factor) still dictate an upward trend.

2008-06-06

BMD CPO Futures Monthly (3rd Month).

1

KPOc3, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Monthly09Jun03 - 07Aug08

Sep03 Jan04 May Sep Jan05 May Sep Jan06 May Sep Jan07 May Sep Jan08 May

PrMYRT

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

U.

KPOc3 , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar31May08 3325 3623 3306 3553KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 1531May08 2956KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 2531May08 2624

MomMYRT

KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Mom 2031May08 1994

MACDMYRKPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Signal 12, 26, 9Stoch

KPO 3 L t T d %K Sl St h 20 3

BMD CPO Futures Weekly (3rd Month).KPOc3, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][MA 15][MA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Weekly

15Jun07 - 01Jun08

Jul07 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

PrMYRT

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

U.

KPOc3 , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar18May08 3600 3623 3535 3551KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), MA 1518May08 3531KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), MA 2518May08 3360

MomMYRT

KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Mom 2018May08 426

MACDMYRT

KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Signal 12, 26, 918May08 182.20236

Stoch

Assumptions.

3

1. Long term uptrend U very much intact.

2. 3000 is a proven mother-of-all support & would rate it impregnable. 3200/3300 is increasingly gaining strength as strong support zone.Major cap is at the massive 3700 double-top; assume zero upside beyond this point at this juncture.

3. Current 3200 - 3700 range will increasingly tighten & the current oilseeds plantings in US & India will dictate the next major directional swing.

4. Should there be excess supply replenishment, crude oil price parity will be the Floor Price, at about 3000 (based conversion parity on on going biofuel demand &

RBD Olein Weekly (2nd Month).PALM-OLEIN-P2, Last Quote [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Quote [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Weekly

14Mar07 - 27May08

Apr07 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan08 Feb Mar Apr May

PrUSD

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

D.

PALM-OLEIN-P2 , Last Quote, O/H/L/C Bar11May08 1270.00 1270.00 1222.50 1255.00PALM-OLEIN-P2 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 1511May08 1203.22PALM-OLEIN-P2 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 2511May08 1139.35

MomUSDPALM-OLEIN-P2 , Close(Last Quote), Mom 20

11May08 307 50 MACDUSDPALM-OLEIN-P2 , Close(Last Quote), Signal 12, 26, 9

11May08 96 83534 StochUSD

PALM-OLEIN-P2 , Last Quote, %D Slow Stoch. 20,3,311May08 62 805

CdSBO Monthly (2nd Month).

4

BO-BRZPAR-B1, Last Quote [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Quote [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Weekly03Dec06 - 05Jun08

Jan07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

PrUSDT

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

U.

D.

BO-BRZPAR-B1 , Last Quote, O/H/L/C Bar18May08 1318.20 1318.20 1318.20 1318.20BO-BRZPAR-B1 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 1518May08 1284.76BO-BRZPAR-B1 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 2518May08 1219.55

MomUSDT

BO-BRZPAR-B1 , Close(Last Quote), Mom 2018May08 276.50

MACDUSDT

BO-BRZPAR-B1 , Close(Last Quote), Signal 12, 26, 918May08 105.67674

StochUSDBO-BRZPAR-B1 Last Quote %K Slow Stoch 20 3

S. Am Soybeans (2nd Month).S-BRZPAR-B2, Last Quote [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9][RSI 15] Weekly

08Jul05 - 16Jun08

Sep05 Nov Jan06 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan08 Mar May

PrUSD

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

U.

S-BRZPAR-B2 , Last Quote, O/H/L/C Bar18May08 473.00 473.00 473.00 473.00S-BRZPAR-B2 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 1518May08 461.43S-BRZPAR-B2 , Close(Last Quote), EMA 2518May08 444.31

MomUSDS-BRZPAR-B2 , Close(Last Quote), Mom 20

18May08 87.00MACDUSDS-BRZPAR-B2 , Close(Last Quote), Signal 12, 26, 9

18May08 27 51189RSI

2008-06-06

CBoT Wheat Weekly (2nd Month).Wc2, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 25][EMA 50][EMA 15][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Weekly

03Feb06 - 11Jun08

Mar06 May Jul Sep Nov Jan07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan08 Mar May

Pr

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Wc2 , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar18May08 800 81134 795 808Wc2 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 2518May08 9113

8Wc2 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 5018May08 84314Wc2 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 1518May08 9103

8

Mom

0Wc2 , Close(Last Trade), Mom 2018May08 -85

MACDWc2 , Close(Last Trade), Signal 12, 26, 9

StochWc2 Last Trade %K Slow Stoch 20 3

Why track grains?Due to limited arable land & low global commodities stocks, the supply equation has become extremely intertwined in recent years due to the Price vs Planting preference equation.Component in equation now = protein/oil/energy.

Eg. Wheat was the first to move due to the consecutive 2006/7crop failures in Australia & Ukraine.

Wheat failure = high wheat prices = more wheat acreage next season = reduced beans acreage = eventually higher beans prices.

2008-06-06

What about Crude Oil?

2008-06-06

Petroleum: Light Sweet Crude Weekly./CLc1, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][EMA 50][Mom 20][MACD 15, 20, 4], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Weekly

07Jul05 - 16Jun08

Sep05 Nov Jan06 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan08 Mar May

Pr

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

U.

/CLc1 , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar18May08 125.89 126.13 123.48 123.51/CLc1 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 1518May08 110.51/CLc1 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 2518May08 104.34/CLc1 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 5018May08 93.88

Mom

-200/CLc1 , Close(Last Trade), Mom 20

18May08 27.51MACD

0/CLc1 , Close(Last Trade), Signal 15, 20, 418May08 3.02978

Stoch/CLc1 Last Trade %K Slow Stoch 20 3

Petroleum: Light Sweet Crude Weekly.Crude Oil now has a direct co-relation towards edible oils due to the biofuel factor.Morgan Stanley’s recent projections;- USD 150 in next 6 months- USD 200 in next 2 years.

Still on major long term uptrend U.

Strong support pegged at USD 108.Mother-of-all supports at USD 98 & USD 86 (both impregnable rating)Would conclude that sub-100 levels are history......(caveat: until a cheap alternative energy source is found or.......)

Petroleum.The Floor Price for palm oil based on biofuel price parity is pegged at about 3000 - 3200.As Crude Oil prices rise, so will the Floor Price.

NB. Due to escalating food inflation, there is a re-think of the biofuel programs lately. On-going plants have been mired in negative margins due to high priced feedstock & practically all planned new capacities have been shelved.

Calls for a moratorium in EU biofuel programs are also gaining momentum.In the immediate term, the ‘splash & dash’ palm biodiesel via the USA has also been questioned.

2008-06-06

What about global recession?

Dow Jones Industrial Monthly.

7

.DJI, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 50,3,3] Monthly04Aug00 - 28Aug08

Jan01 Jul Jan02 Jul Jan03 Jul Jan04 Jul Jan05 Jul Jan06 Jul Jan07 Jul Jan08 Jul

PrT

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500D.

11,500

.DJI , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar31May08 12818.34 13132.46 12715.02 12876.31.DJI , Close(Last Trade), EMA 1531May08 12787.39.DJI , Close(Last Trade), EMA 2531May08 12501.46

Mom0.DJI , Close(Last Trade), Mom 20

31May08 1197.24MACD0.DJI , Close(Last Trade), Signal 12, 26, 9

31May08 523 41534Stoch

DJI Last Trade %K Slow Stoch 50 3

Dow Jones Industrial.Despite the doom & gloom, the Dow has rallied strongly.

Appears that the worst is over & that the Dow is in a sideways range with 11,600 = massive double-bottom support.

13,200 = 62% upside rally potential already achieved.Therefore, at current levels, definitely at make-or-break juncture.

Must maintain above 12,800 to keep stability.Weekly close below 12,800 = defensive.

Next immediate support levels are at 12,400 & 12,000; breaching below each = increasingly bearish.

Palm maintaining the long term uptrend.

Palm within immediate sideways 3300 - 3700 range.Downside potential will be checked by the Floor Pricederived from energy price parity, currently pegged at 3000 - 3200 zone.

Naturally, this Floor Price will rise in accordance with Crude Oil prices. Naturally Crude Oil at USD 150 will likely buoy palm prices to 4000.

Likely that the current US/Indian oilseeds crop will provide the next major directional swing. Normal harvest = bias towards Floor Price while a curtailed crop = bull run.

Conclusion.

Conclusion. A global economic slowdown is still generally

expected but appears unlikely to have heavy impacton essential soft commodities (assuming demand already at near in-elastic levels & cannot be significantly reduced against low global inventories).

For BMD CPO, first mother-of-all supports is at 3000, with 3300 support increasingly building up strength.

Other mother supports are at 2800, 2660.

Strategy: If ever prices come close to major/mother supports, look for buy signals & let the weather premiums kick in.

2008-06-06

BMD CPO Futures Monthly (3rd Month).KPOc3, Last Trade [O/H/L/C Bar][EMA 15][EMA 25][Mom 20][MACD 12, 26, 9], Last Trade [Slow Stoch. 20,3,3] Monthly

09Jun03 - 07Aug08

Sep03 Jan04 May Sep Jan05 May Sep Jan06 May Sep Jan07 May Sep Jan08 May

PrMYRT

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

U.

KPOc3 , Last Trade, O/H/L/C Bar31May08 3325 3623 3306 3553KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 1531May08 2956KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), EMA 2531May08 2624

MomMYRT

KPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Mom 2031May08 1994

MACDMYRKPOc3 , Close(Last Trade), Signal 12, 26, 9Stoch

KPO 3 L t T d %K Sl St h 20 3

2008-06-06

Happy Trading and

Many Thanks.Tel : 012-2990288.Email : kklohcimb@gmail.com