blueprint for a transatlantic climate partnership
TRANSCRIPT
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CLIMATE & ENERGY PAPER SERIES 09
Blueprint for a transatlantic
climate partnership
nigel purvis
Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
President, Climate Advisers
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2009 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gmus.org/publications/index.cm. Limited print
copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].
gmf per serie
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the GermanMarshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
view o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
about gmf
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institu-
tion dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.
GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discuss
the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety o
global policy challenges. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies.
Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains astrong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven ofces in
Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.
Tis paper would not have been possible without unding rom the ransatlantic Climate Bridge, an initiative jointly launched
by German Foreign Minister Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier and German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel to connect and
support those working to address the challenges o climate change, energy security, and economic growth at the local, thestate, and the ederal level in the United States and Germany.
Te writing o this report was supported in part by a grant rom the Norwegian Royal Ministry o Foreign Aairs.
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership
Climate & Energy Paper Series
July 2009
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 3
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Introduction1
Past experience
shows that forgin
a durable global
consensus on
a new climate
agreement will
prove difficult,
perhaps impossi
if the United
States and Europ
cannot overcome
their differences.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States4
Whether Europe
and the United
States like it or not,
the onlyglobal deal
developing nations
are prepared toconsider right
now must include
commitments from
developed nations
to immediate
emissions mitigation,
more financial
assistance, and to
giving developing
nations greater
control of globalclimate institutions.
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The Global Deal2
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 5
The good news is
that most parties
including the
United States an
Europe, agree
on a number of
important points
The bad news is
that developed
and emerging
economies disag
on two really big
questionsthe
level of ambition
of the medium-
term U.S. emissio
target, and the
legal and structu
form of actions
by emerging
economies.
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Many
knowledgeable
climate experts
in Washington
believe that
Obamas proposedtargeta 14%
cut in U.S.
emissions from
2005 levels by
2020represents
a realistic
scenario for the
United States
one that is both
economically
and politicallyachievable.
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 7
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Obama and the
international
community
should continue
to push Congress
toward the
most ambitious
emissions
reduction target
possible, but in
the end whateve
target Congress
approves will be
akin to a take it
or leave it offer.
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States8
The transatlantic
parties are rightly
focused on
getting emerging
economies
committed tolong-term climate-
friendly economic
strategies,
sometimes called
low carbon
growth plans.
The international
superstructure
that surrounds
these, therefore,
must by necessitybe at the heart
of international
negotiations.
Actions by Emerging Economies:
Insist on a Few Common Elements
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 9
If the actions
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internationally
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Congress would
be very unlikely
to agree to
legally binding
commitments for
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 11
Nations that are
concerned about
climate change
need to be
prepared to drive
a hard bargain
actually saying
no to an
international
agreement
that does not
contain uniform
mitigation
requirements
for all major
emitters. Without
these elements
a new climate
agreement would
be unlikely to
succeed.
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Finance and Institutions3
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 13
Europe and
the United
States should
make a very
generous offer
to substantially
increase financia
assistance to
developing
nations, provided
a small number
of reasonable
conditions are m
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States14
To deal with
climate change
effectively the
United States
and Europe each
need to comeup with at least
$25 billion a year
for international
climate activities
between now
and 2020 from
public and private
sources. Politically,
mobilizing this
amount of
funding wouldbe a Herculean
effort, particularly
in the United
States and likely
even in Europe.
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 15
Developing
nations need to
accept that a
large and growin
percentage of ne
climate change
resources will
come from the
private sector,
mainly through
U.S. and Europea
carbon markets.
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Figure 1: Uses and Sources of Public Financing
Capacitybuilding
Verifiedemissionsreductions
Policyimplementation
Capacitybuilding
Verifiedemissionsreductions
Policyimplementation
New global fund(World Bank?)
Other IFIs
GEF
EU bilateral
Existing UN funds
Other developed countrybilateral funds
Japanbilateral
U.S. bilateral
Funding Uses Funding Sources
Multilateral
Decentralized
Source: Nigel Purvis, Climate Advisers (2009)
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States16
So deep is the
suspicion of global
government in
America that
mandatory
contributions tonew centralized
climate finance
institutions could
threaten the
prospects of U.S.
participation in a
new UN climate
agreement.
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Blueprint or a ransatlantic Climate Partnership 17
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Figure 2: Financing Emissions Mitigation in Emerging Economies
Market-readiness andcapacity building forforeign assistance
Global emergingeconomy mitigationcost curve
Emergingeconomycontribution
Developed countrycarbon markets
Government-to-governmentpay for performance
$ per ton CO2e
Time/tons
Negative cost opportunities,self-financed sustainabledevelopment projects
$
0
Source: Nigel Purvis and Andrew Stevenson, Climate Advisers (2009)
Note: Some concepts were drawn from McKinsey and Companys global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve work.
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