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Blue Racer Midstream, LLC. Nature of Information Presented:
The following information has been prepared by Blue Racer Midstream, LLC to provide current and forward-looking information on our business and operations to members of our commercial banking syndicate. This information is derived from a variety of sources, many of which have not been independently verified by Blue Racer Midstream, LLC. This information also contains financial projections, which may vary materially from actual results in the future. Blue Racer Midstream, LLC believes such projections have been prepared based on reasonable assumptions, but makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such projections, other forward looking information and information of a general economic or industry specific nature.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities.
This presentation has not been prepared with a view toward public disclosure under state or federal securities laws or otherwise and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Blue Racer Midstream, LLC.
Forward-Looking Statements:
This presentation contains forward‐looking statements based on the beliefs of the company, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to our management team. When used in this presentation, words such as “anticipate,” “project,” “expect,” “plan,” “seek,” “goal,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “intend,” “could,” “should,” “will,” “believe,” “may,” “potential” and similar expressions and statements regarding our plans and objectives for future operations, are intended to identify forward‐looking statements. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. You should not put undue reliance on any forward‐looking statements, which speak only as of their dates. Forward‐looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expected, including insufficient cash from operations, adverse market conditions, governmental regulations, the possibility that tax or other costs or difficulties related thereto will be greater than expected, the impact of competition and other factors. All forward‐looking statements attributable to Caiman Energy II, LLC, Blue Racer Midstream, LLC or any person acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained herein. Except as required by law, we do not intend to update or revise our forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Pipeline System Overview
Extensive pipeline network allows efficient and economically advantaged connectivity across rich and lean acreage
n Upstream – System currently serves 21 customers – Pipelines serve lean gathering, rich gathering and
condensate gathering n Midstream
– Full value chain service – “Super-system” - largest network of gathering pipeline
spanning throughout the wet gas and lean Utica ► ~400 miles of pipeline from Dominion ► ~323 miles of pipeline constructed from formation
through 2017 n Downstream
– Connectivity to multiple markets and end users maximizes producer netbacks ► Residue pipelines ► NGL pipelines ► Rail ► Barge ► Truck
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n Located in Northwest Monroe County, Ohio – 420 MMcf/d of processing capacity
► Two 210 MMcf/d cryogenic processing plants ► Site can accommodate one additional processing
facility ► Condensate: 10,000 Bbl/d of onsite stabilization
capacity
Facilities Overview Natrium
n Located along the Ohio River in West Virginia – 450 MMcf/d of processing capacity
► Two cryogenic processing plants, third under construction for Q42018 in service.
► Site can accommodate three additional processing plants
► 123,000 Bbl/d fractionation plant (C2+) ► Condensate: 2,500 Bbl/d of onsite stabilization ► Product takeaway facilities include pipeline, rail,
truck and barge
Berne
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Residue Markets
Increased takeaway projects reduce basis differentials and increase producer netbacks
n Natrium – Dominion Energy Transmission, Inc. – Texas Eastern Transmission Company – Rockies Express Pipeline – Leach Xpress / Rayne Xpress
n Berne – Texas Eastern Transmission Company – Energy Transfer Rover
n Future Pipelines to provide ~5.7 Bcf/d of new
capacity by the end of 2019 – Q318: NEXUS (Natrium and Berne) – Q418: CGT Mountaineer Xpress (Natrium) – Q419: Atlantic Coast Pipeline (Natrium)
1. IncludesWesternSystemsoldtoDEOonDecember1,2016Source:NortheastTakeawayProjectsfromBTUAnaly;cs1Q17NortheastGasOutlook;
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NGL Markets
Increased takeaway projects help flatten seasonal differentials and increase producer netbacks
n Ethane – Connection to ATEX, Mariner East I and Mariner
West via G-151 and WPZ/OVM n Propane
– Connection to TEPPCO via G-150 – Connection to Mariner East II via G-150 (on ME IIs
completion) – On-site rail/truck loading – On-site barge loading
n Butanes – Connection to Mariner East II via G-150 (on ME IIs
completion) – On-site rail loading
n NGLs/Condensate – On-site rail loading – On-site barge loading – On-site truck loading
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Ethane Outlook
Ethane Supply & Demand(1)
Ethane Historical & Future Pricing(2)
Commentary
n Staggering ethane demand growth of 1,160,000 bbls/d by 2023 – Gulf Coast crackers account for
614,000 bbls/d – NE Crackers account for 149,000
bbls/d – Export adds another 397,000 bbls/d
n Ethane rejection dropped early 2018 to 300,000 bbls/d from 450,000 bbls/d – New cracker startup and feedstock
switching (reduction in ethylene margins)
– Projected rejection drops to 150,000 by 2020 and zero by 2021
n Ethane price long term forecast of $0.30 to $0.45 per gallon – Too low to cover transport cost from
NE to GC vs discretionary recovery(3) 1. Source:WellsFargoNGLSnapshot–April20182. Source:FactSet,futurespricingasof6/1/20183. Need$0.10/gallonforgas,$0.04/gallonforfrac,$0.21/gallontransportaMonbasedon$1.50/Mmbtunaturalgasprice
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0.35
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/gal]
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Propane Outlook
U.S. LPG (C3/C4) Exports(1)
Historical & Future Pricing(2)
Commentary
n Prices improved over last 18 months
– Storage below 5 yr average – Brent crude ~$70/bbl – Exports at record high
n Strong seasonal differentials (basis) still hinder netbacks
– Mariner East II creates floor n Exporting over 900,000 bbls/d
and growing n Petrochemical demand for LPG
down 50,000 bbls/d – Lower ethylene margins
driving switching to ethane 1. Source:WellsFargoNGLSnapshot–April20182. Source:FactSet,futurespricingasof6/1/2018
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1.00
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1.60
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/gal]
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Butane Outlook
Normal Butane Pricing(1)
Iso Butane Pricing(1)
Commentary
Normal Butane n Wide seasonal differentials
– Regional demand is strong during blending season, but weak outside of that
– Export demand out of Marcus Hook will increase regional competition for butane, and with it, price
Iso Butane n Steady, year round negative basis
in the Northeast n Demand is stable n Can be exported with normal as a
mixed butane 1. Source:FactSet,futurespricingasof6/1/2018
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Mountaineer NGL Storage Connection
The proposed Mountaineer NGL Storage facility in Ohio will be connected to the Natrium Fractionator
with an ethane and a propane/butane pipeline
n MNGL’s storage is in the heart of the Marcellus and Utica wet gas production area
n MNGL has a viable salt storage project with a brine solution
n Shell and PTT Global are solid potential markets with NGL traders and other fractionators in the wings
n Salt storage in the region offers a number of benefits n More cost effective than above ground storage n Offers pipeline shippers a place to deliver
NGLs in the event of a pipeline slip n As the chemical and plastics industry
develops, they will want ethane storage for backup supply
n Creates a trading hub that will enhance producer netbacks
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Pipeline Slips – they happen…..
n Pipeline’s are the safest form of transportation for NGLs n However, in Appalachia, pipelines are installed through the hills and the valleys and susceptible to soil slips
n Due to rain, soil conditions, and gravity, soil slips do occur n These slips can take pipelines along with them causing a pipeline to bend and even possibly break
n In the pictures above, the 16” pipeline was straight when it was installed n The soil slip caused a major deformation of the pipeline
n The pipeline was out of service for 10 days for the repair/replacement.
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The Insurance Value of NGL Storage
The proposed Mountaineer NGL Storage facility in Ohio could provide a location to store propane in
the event of a pipeline or rail outage.
n How long before lost revenues pay for backup storage?
n Assumptions: n Producer wet gas volumes = 500 mmcf/d n Producer wet gas ~ 1 gallon propane per mmcf n Producer revenue from gas and liquids = $3/mcf n Storage capacity reservation = $8.20 per bbl per year n Pipeline capacity reservation = $0.02 per gal n Storage and pipeline injections rights = 12,500 bbls
per day n Storage capacity 100,000 bbls
n Pipeline and Storage capacity reservation fees equal $8,485,000 per year
n $8.485M divided by $3 per mcf equal 2.8 Bcf of gas n Storage and pipeline reservation fees would break even after
5 day propane takeaway outage. n With storage producer could store 12,500 bpd instead
of shutting in
n Sunoco Logistics Mariner East 1 pipeline has been offline for over 75 days during first 6 months of 2018.
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Blue Racer Midstream
Full-Value Midstream Provider Strategic Assets Located in Top Shale Plays
Experienced Management Team with Strong Equity
Ownership Base Large Growth Potential