blowing the cobwebs off your mind event - 22 january 2014
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Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind (with Friends of Laurie Young). The Royal Society, 22nd January 2014TRANSCRIPT
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
1
Welcome to the
last
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind
with friends of Laurie Young
The Royal Society
22nd January 2014
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Cobwebs team
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Laurie Young
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Died suddenly and shockingly
18th September 2013
We are missing him, and
hope that this event captures
some of his voice and ideas.
http://laurieyoungmemorial.wordpress.com/
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Remembering Laurie
• Laurie Young prize,
• Summit,
• Essay competition,
• 1% club,
• Funding vehicle for consultancies and business schools
to conduct original research into Thought Leadership.
• Richard Chaplin is the architect, has more details, and
would be delighted to talk about it in the break ------
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Where this came from
• Laurie and Gill's book
• Interest in futures & investment
• “Cobwebs” meetings to develop the ideas
• The cards & advisory work
• Impetus to the Thought Leadership book
from last years’ Royal Society event
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
What we have covered
• Futures trends
• Dialogue about the forces
• Cognitive bias
• Three Horizons
• Scenarios
• VERGE
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In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change life-
cycles
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Agenda for today
• Thought leadership
– Looking back, models of Thought Leadership
• Three Horizons
• Some Forces for Change
– Choosing a few
• Future models of Thought Leadership
– Feedback
• Just in case you are not convinced of the challenges
ahead
– Briefing on technology driven opportunities
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
8 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Thought Leadership
Dr Chris Yapp
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Laurie’s Last Book
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Cynical View
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Why Now?
• Difficult economic times
• Shortening product lifecycles
• Commodification of services
• Short-termism
• Globalisation, BRICs, MINT…
• Complexity of change
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Challenge
• Individuals and organisations
• What is Thought Leadership?
• Where does it come from?
• How is it done?
• Who does it well?
• What is the value of Thought Leadership?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
My Discussions with Laurie
• It’s often done badly in IT and professional
services
• It’s often scoped wrongly
• Communicating internally and externally needs
to be improved
• Once ideas are out there…
• It’s all about context
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
The Value of Thought Leadership
• To individuals
– identity
• To organisations
– attracting & keeping talent
• To stakeholders
– story builds the relationship
• To governments
– ability to embrace the future
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Over to You----
• At the table
• Share some examples of Thought
Leadership
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
16 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Three Horizons
Dr Wendy Schultz
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry
The Three Horizons Framework
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
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• Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:
– Technology roadmapping - inadequate
– UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures
– Emerging practice
– Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
• Curry and Hodgson, cases and article
• Growing community of practice
Origins of the Three Horizons
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon ONE
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• Today’s dominant pattern(s) –
accumulations of past decisions & designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with
surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with
problems frame approaches to new
challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time
as a limited resource
MANAGERIAL
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon THREE
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• Imagined futures and emerging changes –
transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social
settlements and systems that could be
brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural
assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of
time as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon TWO
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• Looks both ways – past and future –
to respond to limitations of H1 and
opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence
• Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past
• Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost
– trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
MANAGER VISIONARY ENTREPRENEUR
Eg,
MUSIC,
MOVIES,
CDs,
DVDs
Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES –
transformational disruptor
- iTunes
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES
– paradigm buster -
Napster
Three Horizons: Mindsets
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons: Questions
• What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)?
• What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying?
• Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons Insights
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“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which
change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead
become aware that everything that seems
fixed and stable is just part of a slow process
of change, embedded in other processes that
extend out as far as we want to explore.”
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon One Questions
• Discuss Chris Yapp’s overview of thought leadership
models:
– What additional leadership models from the past would you add
to the list? What are traditional approaches to innovation?
– What current approaches to leadership and thought leadership
do most people take for granted?
– How do most businesspeople and managers assume innovation
will happen?
• Note each past & current model on a post-it, and add
them onto the Horizon One space on your table map.
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon Three Questions
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• Please review the 15 challenging changes we’ve
provided as a card deck at your table.
• Which of the changes significantly challenge traditional
and current models of thought leadership, either for the
good or ill? Place them on the Third Horizon.
• Are there challenging changes or visions that you would
add? Jot each addition down on a post it, and add those
to the Third Horizon as well.
• Look at your First Horizon thought leadership models.
• Which are the most challenged by change? Star those.
• Which changes challenge the most thought leadership models?
Star those.
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
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Emerging models?
Dr Chris Yapp
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Why Do We Need New Models?
• Deep uncertainties
• Influencing agendas
• Demographics – skills
– New disciplines: interdisciplinarity
• West to East
– Changing world order
• Environment
– Sustainability
• Technology
– Global networks
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Pro-Am
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Wiki
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Wisdom of Crowds
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Big Data
• Government Open Data
• Large Corporate Data sets
• Internet of Things
• BUT how to use to generate insight?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Open Innovation
• Open vs Closed models
• Co-design, co-delivery
• Clusters, supply-chains and ecosystems
• “Open Source”
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Overcoming the hype
• "We can't solve problems
by using the same kind of
thinking we used when
we created them."
• "Any intelligent fool can
make things bigger, more
complex, and more
violent. It takes a touch of
genius -- and a lot of
courage -- to move in the
opposite direction."
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Potential Models
• Pro-Am:
– co-operation with known rules
• Wiki
– experts edit the rules
• Wisdom of Crowds
– diversity on complex problems
• Big data
– so what? How to make sense?
• Open Innovation
– eco-system of experts
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon Two Questions
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• Discuss Chris Yapp’s introduction of new thought
leadership models:
– Do these replace older models completely?
– Do any of the new models address or overcome the challenges
you’ve just identified as most significant?
– Can you look at the emerging changes and imagine any
additional, transformative, novel models of thought leadership?
• Identify to report back:
– The most significant, challenging change to thought leadership;
– The most profound new model of thought leadership emerging;
– The most surprising new need for thought leadership emerging.
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Your group’s summary
• Before reporting:
– Review the highlights of your discussion
– What one change presents the greatest
challenge?
– What was the most profound new model
for thought leadership that emerged?
– What was the most surprising new need
for thought leadership?
• Report back: three bullet points only!
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
In Closing
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• Laurie was Chairman of the Strategic Planning Society
– He suggested the formation of Special Interest Groups, SIGs
– We are planning to launch the Futures & Strategy SIG with a
series of events
– 30th April, 23rd July, 22nd October
• We are also planning Futures Bootcamps at Wolfson
College, Oxford
– Details from Wendy Schultz
• Watch for the announcements of the Laurie Young
Memorial Prize, the summit, the 1% Club, ----
• And perhaps we may all meet again next year at The
Royal Society
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thank You
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