beyond the great recession: 2020 a regional summit for the communities of south central pennsylvania...
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Beyond The Great Recession: 2020
A Regional Summit
for the Communities of
South Central Pennsylvania
June 13, 2012
York Holiday Inn, York, PA
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania
Legislative sevice agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Rural Revitalization Act of 1987, amended Act 52, 2009)
Mandates•Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions.
•Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.
Population Density, 2010 (Number of Persons Per Square Land Mile)
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
1960PopulationDistribution
2010 PopulationDistributio
n
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
South Central Region is Growing
Population in South Central Pennsylvania , 1900-2030 (projected)
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
609,929671,860
712,897788,469
847,409
956,284
1,119,279
1,260,622
1,413,472
1,549,738
1,702,415
1,888,4851,920,584
2,029,094
South Central Region’s Municipal Population 1960 to 2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Cities
Boroughs
Townships 1st Class
Townships 2nd Class
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
Out-of-State In-Migration to andOut-Migration from South Central Pennsylvania 1991-92 to 2009-10
Data source: IRS
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000
37,500
40,000
In-Migration
Out-Migration
Birth and Death Rates in South Central Pennsylvania, 1970-2010
Rate = Deaths/live births per 1,000 population Data source: PA Dept Health and U.S. Census Bureau
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Deaths
Births
2010 Death Rate = 8.8
2010 Live Birth Rate =
12.2
Municipalities with Population Decline, 2000 - 2010
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
South Central Region is Aging & Becoming More Diverse
Children & Youth and Senior Citizens in South Central Region, 1950 to 2030
(projected)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
316,628
418,891
466,400439,908 429,056
467,570494,843 482,934
519,844
87,047109,731
130,231165,145
209,836
243,598
282,079
356,626
456,893
Under 20
65 and Older
Actual Projected
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center
Minorities, 2010
White/Non-Hispanic85%
Other Races2%
Two or More Races9%
Asian12%
Black35%
Hispanic (Any Race)
42%
White/Non-Hispanic79%
Other
Races1%
Two or More
Races7%
Asian
13%
Hispanic (Any Race)
28%
Black51%
South Central Region
Pennsylvania
PennsylvaniaWhite/Non-Hispanics = 10,094,652Minorities = 2,607,727
South Central RegionWhite/Non-Hispanics = 1,600,935Minorities = 287,550
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
Non-Whites
Non-Whites as Percent of Population, 1960-2010 Non-Whites by Municipality, 2010
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
7.6%
9.0%10.2%
11.5%
14.6%
18.1%
3.1%3.7%
5.1%6.4%
9.1%
12.5%
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
1 Dot = 10 People
Hispanics/Latinos
Hispanics/Latinos by Municipality, 2010Hispanics/Latinos as Percent of
Population, 1980-2010
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau
1980 1990 2000 2010
1.3%
2.0%
3.2%
5.7%
1.3%
2.2%
3.7%
6.4%
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
1 Dot = 10 People
Economic Stability and Growth
Employers and Employees in South Central Pennsylvania, 1980 to 2010
Employees Employers
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
02,5005,0007,500
10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,00032,50035,00037,50040,00042,50045,00047,500
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry
Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2001 and 2011
2nd Qt. 2001(818,034 Employees)
2nd Qt. 2011(833,413 Employees)
Retail & Wholesale
Trades17%
Health Care & Social Assistance
11%Manufacturing
20%
Finance, Real Estate, & Management
11%
Accommodation, Food Services & Entertainment
8%
Educational Services
7%
Professional & Other Services
7%
Public Admin-istration
6%
Transportation & Warehousing
5%
Construction5%
Other3%
Retail & Wholesale
Trades16%
Health Care & Social Assistance
15%
Manufacturing14%
Finance, Real Estate, & Management
11%
Accommodation, Food Services & Entertainment
9%
Educational Services
8%
Professional & Other Services
8%
Public Admin-istration
7%
Transportation & Warehousing
5%
Construction4%
Other3%
Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry
Percent Change in Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2nd Qt. 2001 to 2nd Qt. 2011
Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry
Health Care & Social
Assistance
Accommodation, Food
Services & Enter-tainment
Public Administration
EducationalServices
Transportation & Warehousing
Professional & Other
Services
Finance, Real
Estate, & Management
Retail & Wholesale
Trades
Construction Manufacturing Other-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
32.8%
16.4% 15.6% 16.0% 14.6% 13.6%
9.0%
-2.5%
-11.8%
-27.2%
-31.7%
Unemployment
First Quarter 2012 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Average Annual Unemployment Rates, 1970-2011
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20110.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
2011Pennsylvania
7.9%
2011South Central
Region7.1%
Pennsylvania
South Central
Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry
Average Wages and Salaries
Inflation Adjusted Average Wages and Salaries, 1970-2010 Average Wages and Salaries, 2010
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$25,000
$26,500
$28,000
$29,500
$31,000
$32,500
$34,000
$35,500
$37,000
$38,500
$40,000
$41,500
$43,000
$44,500
$46,000
2010Pennsylvania
$44,834
2010South Central
Region$40,646
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100
Bank Deposits, 1995-2011
Bank Deposits per Capita, June 2011
Inflation Adjusted Bank Deposits per Capita, 1995-2011
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$22,500
$25,000
$27,500
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Data sources: FDIC and U.S. Census Bureau
Labor Force Participation(Persons 16+ Years Old)
Labor Force Participation Rate, 1970-2010
Employment: Full-/Part-Time, Year Round/Seasonal, 2010
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
57.6%59.3%
62.0% 62.8% 62.3%63.3%
65.9%
69.6%68.4%
65.3%
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Full-Time, Year Round
(35+ Hour Week, 50+ Week Year)
61%
Full-Time, Less than
Year Round(35+ Hours Week, <50
Weeks Year)13%
Part-time, Year Round(<35 Hours Week, 50+
Weeks Year) 12%
Part-time, Less than
Year Round(<35 Hours Week, <50
Weeks Year)14%
Data sources: PA Dept. Labor & Industry and U.S. Census Bureau Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau
Getting To Work
Average Commute Time to Work (in Minutes), 1990-2010
Percent of Persons Working in the Municipality Where They Live, 2006-10
1990 2000 2010
21.6 min.
25.2 min. 26.0 min.
19.4 min.
22.6 min.23.7 min.
PennsylvaniaSouth Central
Data source: 2006-2010 ACS, U.S. Census BureauData source: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau
Sources of Personal Income in South Central Region, 1970 and 2010
1970$5.23 Billion ($29.41 Billion Inflation Adjusted)
2010$69.78 Billion
Wages &
Salaries80%
Divi-dends,
Interest, &
Rent12%
Transfer Pay-
ments8%
Wages & Salaries
65%
Divi-dends,
Interest, & Rent
16%
Transfer Pay-
ments19%
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100
Slow Housing Market
New Housing Permits Issued in South Central Region
Permits Issued, 1990-2011 Permits Issued, 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices),
2008-2011
Act 91 Notices per 1,000 South Central Region Homeowners *, 2008-2011
Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices) per 1,000 Homeowners* By County, 1st Quarter, 20114th Qt.
20081st Qt. 2009
2nd Qt.
2009
3rd Qt.
2009
4th Qt. 2009
1st Qt. 2010
2nd Qt.
2010
3rd Qt.
2010
4th Qt. 2010
1st Qt. 2011
5.8
10.2
9.1 9.0
10.3
8.99.7
11.1
8.08.6
*2010 Census Owner-occupied data was used in the dominator Data source: Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency
Housing Affordability: Ratio of Household Income Housing Payments, 2010
Mortgage Payer Homeowners Renters
30% or less 31% to 49% 50% or Higher
54%
20%
26%
51%
21%
27%
30% or less 31% to 49% 50% or Higher
68%
22%
10%
68%
19%
12%
South Central Pennsylvania
Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS U.S. Census Bureau
Strong Agricultural Sector
Ag sales, 2010
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Number of Acres of Farmland, 1930-2007
1930 1935 1945 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 20070
1,500,000
3,000,000
4,500,000
6,000,000
7,500,000
9,000,000
10,500,000
12,000,000
13,500,000
15,000,000
16,500,000
18,000,000
20077,809,244
Acres
20071,639,854
Acres
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Data sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service
Municipal Revenues
Number of South Central Municipalities with a Deficit,
2005-2010
Municipalities with Deficits, 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
99
8475
111
124
142
Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services
Municipal Tax Revenues
Inflation Adjusted Municipal Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2005-2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$251
$255$260
$250
$247
$244
$298
$307$318
$301
$303$306
South CentralPennsylvania Municipal Tax
Revenues Per capita, 2010
Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services
Adult (25+) Educational Attainment in South Central Region
% Adults with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 1990-2010
Highest Level of Adult Educational Attainment in South Central Region, 2010
High School Diploma or GED; 39.9%
No High School
Diploma; 13.0%
Some College, No Degree; 16.3%
Associate's Degree;
7.3%
Bachelor's Degree or
Higher; 23.5%
Data sources: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau
1990 2000 20100.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
17.9%
22.4%
26.9%
16.1%
20.2%
23.5%
PennsylvaniaSouth Central Region
Conclusions• South Center region came through the Great
Recession less bruised than the rest of the state• Recovery from the Great Recession has been slow• Demographically South Central region is growing,
it is also young and becoming more diverse• The South Central region is not homogeneous in
terms of economy, population change, income, etc.
• South Central region does not reflect statewide conditions – good or bad.
625 Forster St, Room
902
Health and Welfare
Building
Harrisburg, PA 17120
(717) 787-9555
www.rural.palegislature.us
Barry L. Denk
Director