beyond the fundamentals; technical analysis fin 40500: international finance
TRANSCRIPT
Beyond the Fundamentals; Technical Analysis
FIN 40500: International Finance
Fundamental analysis focuses on economic/financial theory and various economic indicators to explain market movements
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Trade Balance Approach
Monetary Approach
Interest Rate Approach
Price Level Approach
Chart Analysis Quantitative Methods
Technical analysis is not concerned with the causes of market movements. Instead, technical analysis focuses on the movements themselves. Is there information in past price movements that can be used to predict future movements?
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The forecasting equation for a technical analysis would be something like this
$/Euro: Weekly data over 3 years
Chart analysis begins with a time series plot of an asset’s price
Charts can be hourly, daily, weekly, etc.
Higher frequency data will be more detailed, but noisier
A chartist looks for patterns in the to identify resistance (upper bounds) and support levels (lower bounds)
Old Support level
New Support level
A “breakout” indicates a new pattern forming
Connect two consecutive highs to get the upper channel
A parallel line through a recent low becomes the lower support
Bullish channels tend to have upward breakouts
Find the trend by connecting at least two highs
Two lows complete the triangle
“Breakout” occurs at the apex, usually with increasing volume
Ascending triangles usually have upward breakouts
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend
The “Run”: A breakout from the lead in trend
The “Bump”: Increase in trend by more than 50%
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend
The left shoulder is the first high above the current trend
The head is the first advance past the left shoulder
The right shoulder is the first high following the reversal
The neckline connects the two shoulders and indicates lower support
What pattern do you see?
“Bump”“Run”
Fibonacci, one of the greatest mathematicians of all time discovered a sequence of numbers which are now used across many disciplines
1 Month
One Pair (Y)
Now
One Pair (M)
2 Months
Two Pair (M, Y)
3 Months
Three Pairs (M, M, Y)
Y = Young, M = Mature
Suppose that you begin with a pair of rabbits:
Rabbits take one month to mature. Once mature, they can breed offspring
Offspring come in pairs (one male and one female). A pair of offspring are born each month
The rabbits never die
Can you find the Pattern?
Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is the sum of the previous two
1+ 1 = 2
1 + 2 = 3
2 + 3 = 5 ….
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ……
These numbers seem to appear a lot in nature…
One
White Calla Lily Euphorbia
Two
Trillium
Three
Five
Buttercups Bloodroot
Eight
Black-eyed Susan
Thirteen
(By far the most common)
Ordinary field daisies have 34 petals – a fact to be remembered when playing “she loves me, she loves me not”!
(with 34 petals, you will always finish with “she loves me not!”)
Take a pineapple…hmmm…look at the various spirals formed
Every human has 2 hands with 5 fingers on each. Each finger is made of 3 segments connected by 2 joints…don’t these numbers sound familiar?
Each section of your index finger, from the tip to the base of the wrist, is larger
than the preceding - fitting the Fibonacci numbers 2, 3, 5
and 8.By this scale, your fingernail
is 1 unit in length.
Similar ratios are seen between your hand and forearm…coincidence?
Suppose that we divide each number into the following number1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ………
1/1 = 1 8/5 = 1.62/1 = 1 13/8 = 1.6253/2 = 1.521/13 = 1.6155/3 = 1.667 34/21 = 1.619
The ratios converge to 1.618
Now, suppose that we divide each number into the previous number1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ………
1/1 = 1 5/8 = .6251/2 = .5 8/13= .6152/3 = .667 13/21 = .6193/5 = .6 21/34 = .617
The ratios converge to .618
AND618.1618.1 618.1618.
1
Suppose that we begin with a 1X1 square
Put another 1X1 square next to it
Now, put a 2X2 underneath
Now, add a 3X3 square
Connect the corners of the squares and you get the golden spiral…look familiar??
Math is everywhere!!
Anyways, back to technical analysis. Many of the technical methods are based on PHI (.618) and powers of .618
.618
.382 = .618*.618
.236 = .618*.618*.618First, draw a trend line
Draw arcs that intersect the trend at 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% of the high (these will indicate future supports)
Draw an initial trend line between two extreme points
At the second extreme point, draw a vertical line
Draw rays that intersect at 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2%
Once a reversal occurs, it tends to find support at Fibonacci levels!
Large price swings tend to occur on “Fibonacci times”! (times could be in days, months, years, etc)
Elliott Waves Elliot wave theory relies on cycles within cycles
Grand Super cycle Super cycle Cycle
Each cycle consists of 5 moves with the trend (1,3,5 are impulse, 2,4 are corrective) and 3 that are against the trend. A “5-3” wave
Impulse
Correction
Beginning of the next wave
Elliott Waves consist of 5 moves with the trend (1,3,5 are impulse, 2,4 are corrective) and 3 that are against the trend. A “5-3” wave cycle
Impulse (1)
Correction (2)
The 5-3 wave cycles actually oscillate around a larger “super-cycle” The super-cycle is also a 5-3 wave.
Note that the grand super cycle has two movements, the super cycle has 8 movements, the cycle has 34……Fibonacci numbers!!
Finally, the super-cycle oscillates around a “grand super-cycle”
RSI (Relative Strength Indicator)
points "down" Total points Up"" Total1
100100RSI
If “Up Points” = 0, RSI = 0
If “Down Points” = 0, RSI = 100
RSI < 30 (Oversold)
RSI > 70 (Overbought)
RSI (Relative Strength Indicator)
points "down" Total points Up"" Total1
100100RSI
Chart Interval: 15 minutes Period Length: 20 (300 minutes) Total “up” points = 7 Total “down” points = 11
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RSI
RSRSI
RS
Fast Stochastic
FS of Average Moving Period Y
Length Period X ,100*Low(X) - High(X)
Low(X)-Close(X)
Signal
FS
Period High: FS = 100
Period Low: FS = 0
Signal < 30 (Oversold)
Signal > 70 (Overbought)
May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
.6 .3 -.1 .1 .2 .6 .2 .2
MA May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1 .6 .3 -.1 .1 .2 .6 .2 .2
2 .45 .1 0 .15 .4 .4 .2
3 .27 .10 .07 .3 .33 .33
4 .3 .17 .2 .275 .3
A moving average takes out the volatility by averaging several observations. For example, a MA(3) would average the current observation with the previous 2 observations.
Data
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) The MACD indicator calculates the difference
between moving averages of two different lengths (usually, 12 periods and 26 periods)
The signal is typically a 9 period moving average of the difference
A divergence means that “something is happening”Positive to Negative = Sell SignalNegative to Positive = Buy Signal
MACD Suppose that the longer run moving average has a length equal to the number of observations – the series average
MA
Time
MA(N)
MA(10)
- To + : Buy point
+ To - : Sell point
- To + : Buy point
Punch line Technical methods are useful for short run
prediction Don’t lose sight of the fundamentals!!!