beyond the covid-19 · technological development immaterialisation pandemic covid-19 the...

Beyond the COVID-19How the pandemic will shape our future

Spring 2020

A pandemic was no surprise…

…but it took us by one, nonetheless

In the following, we identify what we have learned from past pandemics and how we can

use insights from megatrends and futures studies to understand how the current shock to

our interdependent society will shape the world beyond the pandemic COVID-19.

It serves little purpose to dwell on the many reports and countless academics who told us

a pandemic was a very likely risk, or on Bill Gates telling the world in a Ted Talk that “we

are not ready”. Both predictions are painfully evident at this very moment, worldwide.

Behind the development unfolding now is a series of unfortunate events, but underlying

MEGATRENDS are the factors which have escalated COVID-19 from a local or even

regional issue into a global threat to our health, our elderly, our economies, our

businesses, our jobs and even our social structures. Megatrends are tectonic plates

moving beneath the surface and are major pathways of development, global in scope,

and have a lifetime of at least 10-15 years.

At CIFS we work with 14 such megatrends, some of which can be attributed an

unfortunate role in the escalation of events, while others have offered some relief, as we

enter uncharted territory for the leaders and society at large. However, it is now more

evident than ever that:

I. we have little control over Megatrends,

II. they have profound global effects; they had before the pandemic, and they will

after we have weathered this storm; and

III. they will shape our societies in the aftermath, but their trajectories may change

following the biggest global crisis since World War II.

“What happens now, will

change the way we do

business, structure our

societies, run our

governments, the way we

work, collaborate, consume,

spend, travel and educate

ourselves…all at once”

PANDEMIC REPERCUSSIONS

When in a state of crisis, it is natural to be drawn to certain ways of thinking: 1) bubble mentality, focusing on oneself

and one’s immediate family, rather than society at large, 2) short-termism like hoarding, instead of accommodating

the steady flow of food and goods, and 3) lack of direction and anxiousness of what the future may hold.

As with previous crises, in the wake of which we redrew maps, forged new alliances, rewrote laws and saw the birth

of new theologies – the post-COVID-19 pandemic world and future is shaped by our response and actions, today.

To see the long-term picture through the short-term fog of uncertainty and rapid change, CIFS uses the lens of

megatrends. Megatrends are underlying trajectories, which for the most part stay their course even in times like this.

Working with megatrends provides an invaluable perspective on what your industry, your sector and your business

may look like in the post-pandemic world, allowing you to strategise accordingly. For individuals, futures literacy may

prove to be a more useful skill that ever, on all levels of society.

Knowledge Society

Sustainability

Demographic

Development

Network Society

Democratisation

Commercialisation

Acceleration & Complexity

Globalisation

Focus on Health

Economic

Growth

Polarisation

Individualisation

Where megatrends meet.

Technological Development

Immaterialisation

Pandemic COVID-19

The interdependence and fragility of our modern society with

its underlying socioeconomic systems is raising the stakes

of a global pandemic. A number of megatrends have

increased the risk of a pandemic outbreak, challenging the

resilience of our current progress in health and medicine.

These are Demographic development, Globalisation and

Economic growth.

The first businesses to be hit outside the original epicenter

in Wuhan were those with global supply chains as goods

stopped flowing. Then came the airlines, the airports and

hotels when people, too, stopped travelling. When our social

habits proved too sticky for volunteer adjustments, the bars,

cafes, restaurants and venues also had to close. From there

to now, it has been a chain of dominoes and businesses

being impacted and jobs being at risk.

A full list of CIFS’ 14 megatrends is listed on page 7.

Sustainability

Demographic Development

Network Society

Democratisation

Commercialisation


Globalisation

Focus on Health

Economic Growth

Polarisation

Individualisation


Immaterialisation

Pandemic COVID-19

How megatrends help us weather the storm…

Knowledge Society

The most obvious impact of technology is that it

currently offers the vital infrastructure for many of

us to continue working from home and see our

loved ones even while apart.

Meanwhile the knowledge society, as opposed

to industrial or agricultural societies, allow us to

maintain some level of activity in many parts of the

world, despite the standstill.

Decades of democratisation of services, greatly

enabled by the internet, now ensures that most of

the world has equal access to information at a

time of crisis.

The network society has served as an avenue

for true compassionate spirit, in everything from

online communities offering help to those most

vulnerable, and people sharing best practice or

invite to applaud our health workers.

Immaterialisation has buffered the potential

shock to consumption as much of what we

consume is digital products, in no need of physical

exchange.

Sustainability


Network Society

Democratisation

Commercialisation


Globalisation

Focus on Health

Economic Growth

Polarisation

Individualisation


Immaterialisation

Pandemic COVID-19

Knowledge Society

…how may they pave the road to the future

As we started out by saying, the MEGATRENDS

are here to stay, and while they will likely have an

imprint of current events, they will also continue to

chisel and shape profound changes to our everyday

lives, routines and businesses in the years to come.

In the following pages, we give our view on what

some of these changes may entail, as these

changes will pose risks to existing business

models, but also pave the way for opportunities,

innovation, new partnerships and structural

change.

Sustainability

Globalisation

Economic Growth


Democratisation

Commercialisation

Focus on Health

Polarisation


Knowledge Society


Network Society

Immaterialisation

Individualisation

The application of knowledge or science to commerce or

industrial processes. Both the innovation and diffusion of

technologies.

Increasingly educated populations and growing

economic value of knowledge where skills,

information, and data constitute primary

economic assets.

Shortening business lifespan, innovation, and

product life-cycles with greater industry

convergence.

Growing gap between extremes, such as top

and bottom market segments, at the expense

of the middle and lower segment.

Increasing desire for personalized products and

services that directly conform to the needs and

interests of any particular user.

Changes in our perceptions and our

values that includes a greater focus on

value over volume.

A society and operating environment where

networks are shaping social interactions and

organisational structures.

Measurable changes in demography covering distribution

and size in human population – including: urbanisation,

ageing, ethnicity & religion and family composition.

The process of interaction and integration

among the people, culture, companies, and

governments of nations across the globe.

Overall increase in productivity and

subsequent growth of wealth at a global

scale.

Meeting the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.

Global movement towards improving

the health and well-being, transcending

all aspects of public, private, and

professional lives.

Areas in society and the public sector that

become assigned to commercial business.

A process of transformation in which equality, access,

and transparency are improved by accountability,

decentralisation, empowerment and openness.

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

Megatrends are major pathways of

development, global in scope, and have a

lifetime of at least 10-15 years.

While megatrends are expected trajectories, do

not expect the development to occur linearly.

Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Globalisation


Democratisation

Focus on Health



Network Society

Individualisation

• Will we see the end of cash, as it spreads viruses like Covid-19?

• Will we test blockchain solutions for elections to avoid public

gathering?

• Will autonomous vehicles be tested for delivery in quarantine

zones?

• The pandemic shock will have fewer consequences

for the digital and agile companies. Could this, from

an evolutionary point of view, cause a boost in

agility and digitisation?

• Will urbanisation remain on its trajectory in the aftermath?

• Will fertility rates increase or be suppressed after such a crisis?

• Will the age structures change and reduce the old-age dependency

ratio?

• Will Africa weather the storm better with a younger population?

• Will we regionalise our supply chains?

• Will we blame each other for the crisis?

• Will we strengthen collaboration across the globe?


GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

&

POTENTIAL

DEVELOPMENTS

• Will we grow more egocentric or increase our sense

of community?

• Will we see an increase in divorces after the global

quarantine measures?

• Will informal networks become part of formal crisis responses?

• Will the lines between business and volunteering get blurred?

• Will the time spent in quarantine cause people to realise the value of

human interaction, and will it impact physical consumption?

• Will the shift from sick care to healthcare

accelerate along with self-monitoring health?

• Will collection, sharing and application of health

data enhance pattern recognition of diseases?

• Can Google searches on ‘fever’ be an early

warning?

• Will we allow substantial surveillance, if It can curb such pandemics?

• Are civil rights universal or relative?

• Is a democratic process too cumbersome for effective crisis

management?

Sustainability

Economic Growth

Polarisation

Knowledge Society

Immaterialisation

• Will universities be replaced by on-demand online

education? Will it be offered by new entrants?

• Will our ability to work remotely reshape our future

need for office space?

• Will remote work take holocracy to a global level

and make our geographical orientation

subordinate?

Changes in our perceptions and our

values that includes a greater focus on

value over volume.

• How deep the fall and how quick the recovery?

• Is it time for ‘beyond GDP’ to capture broader well-

being?

• Will we see a period of redistribution of wealth and tax

reforms?

• Will we appreciate the unintended

environmental benefits of the Covid-19

shutdown and accelerate adoption of a post-

carbon lifestyle?

• Will the climate agenda get lost in the

recession?

• Will we reflect on our ability to act when needed

and repeat it on climate?


GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

&

POTENTIAL

DEVELOPMENTS

• An economic downturn may exacerbate

inequality and regionalisation; what would this

mean for political stability, trust and global

collaboration?

• On the one hand, being more digital has proven a

blessing, but it has also stressed our vulnerabilities and

dependencies. How will we consume in the future?

Commercialisation

• To what degree will the combination of health data available

and smart cities’ sensory infrastructure be commoditised?

• What industries will be hit the hardest by new forms of

crime?

Reflections on global health in the wake of COVID-19:

• A need for thinking holistically about individual and public health

• Legal and ethical debates about the balance between individual and state

rights to control and share health-relevant data

• Upscaling on digital and remote services such as e-health, telemedicine

and mobile health, where people can be reached and monitored in real

time without physical contact

• Improved, increased and optimised data sharing and pattern recognition

to spot potential outbreaks; find cures to and possible mutations in

outbreaks; and establishing the nature of the outbreak as soon as possible

to understand who it affects and how.

• A focus on the fragmentation in (national) systems and critical discussions

on universal healthcare, sick leave and single-payer systems

Cross-country knowledge sharing & lessons learned:

• Best (and worst) practices concerning short- and long-term emergency

response and security measures for resilience.

• The need to rethink what constitutes credible, evidence-based decision

making. Building scientific evidence is a very slow process today, and we

need new and faster evidence gathering methodologies and

infrastructures to ensure the best possible decision making and rapid

responses, while also combating misinformation.

• The need for a global task force working on data sharing and monitoring,

global alert systems, and early interventions

• Greater prioritisation of personal hygiene and the need for stricter rules for

staying home from work if infection is suspected

• A reorientation of healthcare systems from treatment to prevention

Sources: The American Medical Association, 2020; CIFS 2020

When you don’t have your health, you don’t have anything. A pandemic can

silence society, and just as its destructive predecessors in previous centuries,

COVID-19 will obviously have significant impact on the development of global

healthcare systems. Digital health and telemedicine services are struggling to

serve ‘extreme volumes’ of patients during the COVID-19 surge. An increased

emphasis on the promise of digital health will cause the industry to shift and

evolve at the fastest pace to date. Today, more patients expect a standard of

care that is customised to their needs and is delivered by health professionals

in a manner suited to their personal schedules and lifestyles. Three key trends

are rising to the top of the digital health landscape:

• The shift from one-size-fits-all care to personalised health care on demand

• Remote care and counselling for underserved communities

• Collection, utilisation and application of health-related Big Data

COVID-19

changes healthcare

Megatrend: Focus on health

Sustainability

GlobalisationEconomic

Growth

Demographic

Development

Focus on

Health

Acceleration

& Complexity

Network

Society

Individualisation

FREE QUARANTINE

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CURIOUS FOR MORE IN-DEPTH KNOWLEDGE ON MEAGTRENDS & FUTURES STUDIES?

Contact Jeanette K. Mortensen for a free quarantine package with a select number of our

members’ reports at [email protected]

OR explore the benefits of becoming a corporate member here: www.cifs.dk/membership/

Societal impacts of

pandemics in a past,

present, and future

perspective

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.cifs.dk/membership/

Sources: What Is ‘Futures Literacy’ and Why Is It Important? by Nicklas Larsen, Jeanette Kæseler Mortensen & Riel Miller,

2019; Transforming the Future - Anticipation in the 21st century by Riel Miller, Head of Futures Literacy at UNESCO, 2018

In the wake of catastrophes such as pandemics, we have historically seen an increase

in the demand for capabilities related to long-term thinking and exploration of multiple

potential futures to build resilient mindsets, organisations and societies; an ability

referred to as ‘futures literacy’. Futures literacy enables us to become aware of the

sources of our hopes and fears. It improves and sharpens our ability to harness the

power of imagining the future and enables us to more fully appreciate the diversity of

both the world around us and the choices we make.

We collaborate with the Global Futures Literacy Network, established by UNESCO, to

disseminate the capability of futures literacy, useful in times of adversity and rebuilding

communities after catastrophes like pandemics. Replications of flawed mitigation

strategies, behaviors and societal structures of the past can be avoided, by viewing

uncertainty as a resource, rather than an enemy of planning. A futures literate

community utilises uncertainty as an enabler of change and uses the state of crisis to

rethink established practices and search for opportunity.

How to Become a Futures Literate

Future proof your organisation &

become a corporate member:

www.cifs.dk/membership/

OR

Check out our next course on risk

management in a 100% virtual

format:

https://bit.ly/2U74A2T

http://www.cifs.dk/membership/

https://bit.ly/2U74A2T

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is a non-profit, independent institute founded in 1969 by former OECD Secretary-

General Thorkil Kristensen for the betterment of our society. We believe that the future, like the institute itself, belongs to no-one, yet to

everyone. We are by decree, and by our founder’s vision, here to actively contribute to the betterment of our society. We define

betterment through our perception of Nordic values based on trust, equality, openness, integrity and inclusiveness, and a society where

critical decisions about the future are based on insights, not intuition. We are not associated with any university, nor do we receive

public grants.

Today, we are a globally-oriented institute that advises customers and member organisations on a strategic level all over the world. Our

clients and members include some of the world’s largest corporations and organisations across Fortune 500 companies, government

ministries and agencies and non-government institutions. We are wholly self-governing and independent of special interests. Our

mission is to make sense of complexity and enlighten decision-makers about the future, enabling them to make the best possible

decisions in the present and, on this basis, create their own future.

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Amaliegade 5C

DK-1256 Copenhagen K

+45 3311 7176

[email protected]

Copyright 2018. All rights reserved.

This material is only to be shared with the intended recipient.

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