bernard bett - core · 2017-12-17 · rift valley fever • rift valley fever – mosquito-borne...
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Climate change and animal health
Bernard Bett
14th Conference of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics Merida, Yucatan, Mexico
3–7 November 2015
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Acknowledgements
Part of this work falls under the project ‘Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa: Ecosystems, livestock/wildlife, health and wellbeing: REF:NE/J001422/1” partly funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA). The ESPA program is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
This work received funding from the Europeans Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the research agreement No. 641918
Joseph Ogutu, University of Hohenheim Mohammed Said, ILRI Johanna Lindahl, ILRI Delia Grace, ILRI John McDermott, IFPRI Ian Dohoo, UPEI, Canada
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Outline
• Introduction
• Drivers of climate change
• Climate change and animal health
• Applications
• Conclusions
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Introduction
• Climate change influences the dynamics and distributions of:
o individual organisms and populations
o interactions
• Interest on its effects on disease patterns, vector and pathogen distribution
• Mitigation and adaptation practices
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Challenges of climate change-disease research
• Scales:
Climate change is measured in broad/global scales while requirements for disease transmission defined at local/ecosystem levels
• Data:
Baseline data to evaluate extent of geographical shifts in suitable habitats
• Socio-economic factors :
Effects of climate overlap/influenced by socio-economic changes
• Current knowledge
Direct verses indirect effects
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Drivers of climate change
• Earth’s temperature balance: difference between inward and outward energy from the sun
• Main drivers of climate change
o Natural processes i. changes in the amount of solar
intensity reaching the earth
ii. reflectivity of the earth surface
iii. volcanic eruptions
o Anthropogenic factors – concentration on GHG
i. Burning fossil fuels
ii. Deforestation
iii. Some agricultural practices
Huber and Knutti, 2012
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GHG and livestock
• Human-induced climate change – mainly from increasing atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases
Herrero et al. 2013
GHG per kg of animal protein produced
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Temperature and CO2 levels
Karl et al., 2009
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Effects of climate change on animal health
• Effects of climate change on animal health:
o Direct effects: - Vectors, pathogens and hosts and their interactions
o Indirect effects: - Land use changes - Biodiversity changes
• Climate affects suitability of a habitat for pathogens/vectors/hosts, while weather influences timing/severity of outbreaks
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Vector Pathogen
Host
Environment
Direct and indirect effects: elements of a disease transmission cycle
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Direct effects of climate change
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Vectors: survival/fitness and phenology
Tsetse flies: 10 – 36°C
Culicoides imicola: 17 – 36°C
• Fitness and survival
• Phenology –
timing of seasonal activities
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Vectors: Feeding intervals and development rates
Graphs based on degree days
for Culex quiquefaciatus
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Pathogens –replication/development rates
Temperature:
• Influences development/replication rates of some pathogens, e.g. Bluetongue virus (BTV)
• Affects pathogen dissemination rates within the vector
• Influences ability of a pathogen to infect a vector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 10 20 30 40 50
BTV -1 polymerase activity
Temperature
Incorp
ora
tion o
f ra
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substr
ate
s into
RN
A
P. Mertens, Pirbright Inst.
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Hosts: susceptibility to pathogens
• Homeotherms sensitive to air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity
• Chronic stress:
o wears down neuroendocrine responses
o elicits viral-bacterial synergy, causing fatal respiratory infections e.g. BRD
• Ultraviolet radiations suppresses T cell immunity
• Access to nutritious forage and disease resistance
o Lignification of forages
o Replacement of pasture with invasive shrubs
Bett, 2014
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Case studies – evidence of climate impacts
Exp
ansi
on
of
suit
able
nic
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Epid
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asso
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ith
extr
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In
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me
area
s
Bett, B. 2015
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Case study 1: Expansion of suitable niches
• Vectors that have recently expanded their geographical range
Vector Pathogen
Culicoides imicola Bluetongue virus (BTV)
Ixodes ricinus Tick-borne encephalitis, Lyme borreliosis
Dermacentor reticulatus Canine babesiosis, tularemia, Q-fever
Aedes albpictus Dengue virus
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Bluetongue – evidence of impacts of climate change
P. Mellor, M. Baylis and P. Mertens, 2009
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Case study 2: Declining spatial range
• Shifting ranges
• Data limitations – used predictions to 2020 and 2080
Disease Vector
Trypanosomosis Tsetse flies
East Coast fever Rhipicephalus appendiculatus
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Rhipicephalus appendiculatus
• Predictions to 2020 – with an expected drier conditions on the eastern side of the African continent
• Contraction in climatic suitability for this species by an area of about 199,400 sq. km
• East to west Africa shift
• Hosts predicted to have range reduction of 8 to 33%
Leta et al. 2013
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Tsetse and trypanosomosis
• Tsetse transmitted animal trypanosomosis affects 45-50 million cattle in sub-Saharan Africa
• Tsetse control could increase livestock productivity by 52%
• Climate change impacts to 2080:
o A reduction in the overall tsetse population by 7%
o 1.5-fold decrease in habitats
o Increased transmission in a few countries, e.g. Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Case study 2: Epidemics from extreme events
• Diseases that occur as epidemics following extreme events
Vector Pathogen
Rift Valley fever High/persistent rainfall
Leptospirosis Flooding
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Rift Valley fever
• Rift Valley fever – mosquito-borne viral disease of sheep, goats, cattle, camels with zoonotic potential
• RVF virus – single stranded RNA with 3 segments
• Impacts: extensive abortions in animals, perinatal mortality, haemorrhagic syndrome in people
Bird et al., 2009
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Studies on RVF
• Drivers – climate and land use changes
• Spatial distribution and transmission dynamics
• Intervention measures
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El Niño and Rift Valley fever
http://www.geocurrents.info/ (Oct, 2015)
• Six of the seven documented RVF outbreaks in EA since 1960s associated with El-Niño
• El Niño – a random event but its frequency expected to increase with climate change
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Rainfall anomalies
IRI, 2015
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Rainfall anomalies
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Hazard mapping
• Ecological niche models
• Risk factors
• Risk-based surveillance and quantification of vaccines
• Co-occurrence of diseases
Bett, 2015
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Response: Hazard and vulnerability mapping
• IPCC –hazard and vulnerability mapping
• Vulnerability:
o Education
o Poverty
o Livelihood options
o Access to health services
o Knowledge
Kienberger and Hagenlocher, 2014
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RVF virus transmission dynamics
EFSA, 2005
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Modelling RVF - Climate variability
Rainfall and
temperature
satellite data
Floodwater Aedes mcinthoshi Culex spp.
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Choice of RVF vaccines
Existing vaccines • Attenuated
Smithburn vaccine
• Clone 13-
naturally attenuated strain
• Formalin-inactivated field strain
Periodic vaccination
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RVF vaccination strategies
Perfect vaccine Vaccine with 50% efficacy
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Indirect effects of climate change
J. Ogutu, Univ of Hohenheim
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Indirect effects of climate change
• Land use change influencing vector-host-pathogen interactions
Deforestation – irrigation – urban development
• Biodiversity changes
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Land use change
• Erratic rainfall and increasing human population, expected to hit 9.6 billion by 2050, prompting land use changes, e.g. irrigation to alleviate food insecurity
• Irrigation potential:
Sub-Saharan Africa To increase by 39.3 m ha
Southeast Asia 10.6% of area irrigated and will expand to 22.4%
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Land use change and disease transmission
1
10
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1000
10000
Aedes spp Anophelesspp
Culex spp Mansoniaspp
irrigated area
non-irrigated area
Villages
Mosquito species
Log
nu
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uit
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s
1
10
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Aedes spp Anophelesspp
Culex spp Mansoniaspp
irrigated area
non-irrigated area
Farms
Mosquito species
Log
nu
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s
1
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Aedes spp Anophelesspp
Culex spp Mansonia spp
irrigated area
non-irrigated area
Villages
Mosquito species
Log
nu
mb
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of
mo
squ
ito
es
1
10
100
1000
10000
Aedes spp Anophelesspp
Culex spp Mansoniaspp
irrigated area
non-irrigated area
Farms
Mosquito species
Log
nu
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osq
uit
oes
I
Fallo
w p
erio
d
Irri
ga
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easo
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Biodiversity changes
• The increasing frequency of droughts in eastern Africa linked to warming of the Indian Ocean
• The Indian Ocean has warmed much faster because of encroachment from Tropical Warm Pool
Hans Olff, Univ Groningen
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Droughts and wildlife populations
Drought year Description
1991 Moderate
1993 Severe
1994 Moderate
1997 Severe
1999/2000 Extreme
2005/2006 Moderate
2008/2009 Moderate
Dublin et al. 2015
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Host diversity and disease transmission
• Dilution effect – Can biodiversity provides ecosystem services of disease transmission reduction?
• Assumptions:
o Reservoir hosts vary in competence
o Increase in non-competent hosts leads to lower prevalence in vectors
o Increase in biodiversity favours non-competent hosts
• Observations: high biodiversity associate with high disease risk
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Practical applications
• Mean intervals between key events in 2006/07 RVF outbreak, based on pastoralists’ recall in North Eastern Province, Kenya
Results
Events Mean Interval (days)
Average Reported Start Date Per Event
Start of heavy rains and appearance of mosquito swarms
23.6
Start of heavy rains: mid October 2006
First appearance of mosquito swarms and first suspected RVF case in livestock
16.8
Appearance of mosquito: late October 2006
First suspected RVF case in livestock and first suspected human case
17.5
First suspected RVF case in livestock: mid November 2006
First suspected RVF case in livestock and first veterinary service response
61.7
First suspect RVF case in humans: late November 2006
First suspected RVF case in livestock and first public health service response
50.0
First veterinary service response: mid January 2007
First suspected human case and first public health service response
30.0
First public health service response: mid December 2006
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Rift Valley Decision Support Framework
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/59781
Current version:
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Conclusions
• Improve disease surveillance and response with climate data being used for risk mapping/prediction
• Improve animal health service delivery, with good disease control technologies e.g. vaccines
• Increase the resilience of livestock systems – breeds, feed