bellatrix exploration april 2012 corporate presentation
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TRANSCRIPT
11
Corporate PresentationApril 11, 2012
22
Corporate Snapshot
Capital structureCommon shares - basic 107.4 mmCommon shares - diluted 115.3 mmConvertible debentures outstanding $55.0 mm(4.75% Coupon $5.60 Strike)
Insider ownership (fully diluted) 13.3%Production guidance (2012e) 16,500 – 17,000 boe/dExit rate guidance (2012e) 19,000 – 19,500 boe/dOil / liquids weighting (As of December, 2011) 40%Tax pools (approximate) (As of December 31, 2011) $514 mm
33
Corporate Snapshot
Reserves (P&P) (December 31, 2011 after dispositions)* 67.6 mmboe
Net undeveloped acres (December 31, 2011) 224,559 acres
Net drilling locations 900
December 31, 2011(P&P) FD&A costs (including FDC) $9.29/boe
Reserve life index (P&P) (as at December 31, 2011) 10 years
December 31, 2011 Recycle ratio (excluding FDC, P&P) 4.16x
December 31, 2011 Recycle ratio (excluding FDC, proved) 3.01x
* The estimates of reserves for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves for all properties, due to the effectives of aggregation
1
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Directors and OfficersExecutive Most Recent PositionRaymond G. Smith, P.Eng.President, Chief Executive Officer & Director President, CEO & Chairman, Meridian Energy Corp.
Edward J. Brown, CAVice President, Finance & CFO Vice President, Finance & CFO, Petrofund Energy Trust
Ving Y. Woo, P.Eng.Vice President & COO Vice President, Engineering, Meridian Energy Corp.
Russell G. Oicle, P. Geol.Vice President, Exploration Supervisor, Exploration, Penn West Energy Trust
Tim A. BlairVice President Land Vice President, Land, Terra Energy Corp.
Garrett K. Ulmer, P. Eng.Vice President, Engineering Manager of Exploitation, Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.
Director ExperienceW.C. (Mickey) DunnChairman
Past Director, Precision Drilling Inc.
Doug Baker, FCA Director, ATB, Winstar, RMP Energy
Murray L. Cobbe Executive Chairman, Trican Well Service Ltd.
John H. Cuthbertson, QC Partner, Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP
Melvin M. Hawkrigg, BA, FCA, LLD (Hon.) Chairman, Orlick Industries Limited
Robert A. Johnson, P. Geol. Former Executive Vice President, Grey Wolf Exploration Inc.
Keith Macdonald, CA Director, Surge Energy, Madalena Ventures
Murray B. Todd, B.Sc., P. Eng. President, Canada Hibernia Holding Corporation
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Bellatrix Strategy
• Enhance shareholder value with a focused exploitation program supportedwith targeted acquisitions
• Cardium and Notikewin focused core areas will continue to drive growththrough horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing
• Large land base with significant inventory of low risk drilling opportunitiesdrive a large upside opportunity
• Continue to deliver on an increased oil and liquids weighting whilemaintaining low F&D costs
• Prudent financial management in volatile times through commodity hedgesand debt to cash flow maintenance
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Bellatrix’s Financial Forecasts
* Includes $55 million subordinated convertible debenture issued April 15, 2010 and credit facility $170 million as of November 25, 2011.
2010A 2011A % Increase 2012E % Increase
Oil ($CDN/bbl) $76.25 $92.51 $95 - $100
AECO ($CDN/GJ) $3.81 $3.43 $2.50 - $3.50
Exchange rate ($CDN/$US) $0.97 $1.01 $1.00
Cash from operations $53 $94 +77% $145 - $165 54% - 76%
Cash per share $0.57 $0.91 +60% $1.35 – 1.53 48% - 68%
Average annual production (boe/d) 8,519 11,954 +40% 16,500 - 17,000 +40%
Exit Rate (boe/d) 10,500 16,141 +54% 19,000 – 19,500 +21%
Capital expenditures ($mm) $107 $175 +64% $180 +3%
Debt (including Convertible Debenture)
Total credit capacity*
$87 $119
$225
$160 - $140
$225
77
Commodity Risk
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Hedges
58 percent of Q2 & Q3 production hedged in 2012 based on Q1 actual
* Placed a call on 3,000 bbl/d at $US110/bbl for the year 2013
Assumes $US/$CDN currency conversion of 1 to 1 and a 39 Mj/m3 average heat content
Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2012 3,000 bopd $92.30 CDN/bblApr 1 – Apr 30, 2012 27.3 mmcfd $4.51 CDN/mcfMay 1 – Oct 31, 2012 36.4 mmcfd $3.87 CDN/mcf
Oil
*Gas
88
Forecast Capital Expenditures
85%11%2% 2%
Drilling and CompletionFacilitiesLand and SeismicMaintenance
+/- $180 Million
2011 Capital Budget 2012 Capital Budget
81.6%7.2%9.4% 1.8%
Drilling and CompletionFacilitiesLand and SeismicMaintenance
+/- $170 Million
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Production per mm Shares
Oil and liquids
Natural gas
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012e
Production (boe/d)
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012e
Proven Track Record of Per Share Growth
6,57225%
7,24826%
7,67127%
9,11926%
10,00038%
10,08439%
11,64338%
11,83737%
83.4 78.4 82.9 93.8 102.6 103.5 108.4 110.2
14,20937%
15,50040%
130.4144.3
1010
14,625 16,500 16,500 16,500
8,700
17,750
27,5005,896
11,725
11,725
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Dry Gas 35 bbl/mmcf (Notikewin) 70 bbl/mmcf (Cardium) 90 bbl/mmcf (Duvernay)
NGL's
Condensate
Dry Gas
INCREASING LIQUIDS RATIO
Assumes 5 mmcfd$3.00/GJ
$100/bbl condensate$67/bbl NGL’s
Comparative Revenue Streams
RealizedPrice
$2.93/mcfe $6.22/mcfe $9.15/mcfe $11.15/mcfe
Value of Liquids $0/mcf $3.22/mcf $6.15/mcf $8.15/mcf
1111
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Proved P+P Proved P+P Proved P+P
Oil and liquidsNatural Gas
Reserves Growth
Reserves
2009 20112010
29%
28% 38%
40% 37%
38%
16,492
25,750 24,842
42,442 41,818
67,550
mbo
e
265%
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Reserves / Share
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Proved P+P Proved P+P Proved P+P
boe /
shar
e
Oil and liquids
Natural Gas
2009 2010
29%
28%
38%
40%37%
38%
0.21
0.33
0.25
0.440.39
0.63
2011
Reserves Growth
191%
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Revenue and Cash Flow Per Share
Revenue ($mm’s) Cash Flow / Share
** Assumes avg 17000 boe/d 40% liquids, Edmonton Par $100/bbl, AECO $2.50/GJ
69%Liquids
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011E 2012E**
Natural Gas
Oil and Liquids
48% Liquids
52% Liquids
69% Liquids
79% Liquids
$109 $118
$202
$310
$0.39$0.47
$0.91
$1.37
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
2009 2010 2011 2012E
Oil and Liquids
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Formula for Growth
• Inventory of low risk development locations
– 900 net locations– Over 10 years of drilling
inventory• Extensive undeveloped
land base of 224,559 net acres• Large geophysical
database• Concentrated operations base in
WCA• Stacked Reservoirs in WCA:
– Cardium +/- 2,200 m– Notikewin +/- 2,600 m – Duvernay +/- 3,400 m
Northern Alberta / BC(1,000 boe/d)
West Central Alberta(16,000 boe/d)
South East Central Alberta / South West Saskatchewan
(600 boe/d)
Edmonton
Calgary
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Pembina – Cardium Oil
• Inventory of 377 net horizontal drilling locations
– 175 gross sections– 110 net sections
• Superior results obtained by understanding variability and applying technology
• Emerging technology horizontal oil well incentive of 30 months or 70 mboe volume at a maximum 5% royalty rate equivalent to $1.9 mm in the first year of production for Crown wells
• 2011– 37 gross wells (27 net)
• 2012– 38 gross wells (32 net)
West Pembina Lodgepole
Willesden Green
Ferrier
Brazeau
1616
Cardium Oil Type Curves
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Cardium Oil Economics
Locations (net) 377
Drill, case, complete & tie in $3.8m
Production potential IP30 536 boed
EUR / Well 270 mboe
NPV BT@10% $7.3m
Rate of Return 262%
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West Central Alberta – Notikewin Gas
• Inventory of over 174 net horizontal drilling locations
– 184 gross sections– 96 net sections
• Typical Notikewin well:– 2,300 m TVD, 1,000 m to
1,400 m hz leg
• Crown wells qualify for the emerging technology horizontal gas well incentive of 18 months per 500 mmcf at 5% royalty rate as well as the natural gas drilling program incentive maintaining the 5% rate to $2.0 mm over the first 2 years of production
Pembina
Brazeau
Ferrier
Willesden Green
West Pembina
Notikewin Gas Discoveries
Mannville Stacked Channels
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West Central Alberta – Notikewin Condensate Rich Gas
• Regional Stacked Mannville Channel Trend
• 19 BXE Notikewin/Falher gas wells > 10 MMcfd test
• Industry Drilled 9 High IP Wells > 10 MMcfd test
• BXE Inventory of High Rate Drill Locations, 63 gross, 34.46 net
2020
West Central Alberta – Notikewin Condensate Rich Gas
• 13 gross wells (5.6 net) wells in 2011
• 4 gross wells (2.20 net) planned for 2012
Deliverability Profiles
LOE < $1.17/mcfe F&D (2P) $1.11/mcfe
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NTKN Economics Table
Gas Price $CDN/GJ
Oil Price$CDN/bbl
Payout (yrs) NPV BT 10% MM$ ROR BT%
$1.5095 1.3 9.656 97.6
100 1.3 9.719 99.7
$2.0095 1.1 10.275 120.3
100 1.1 10.338 122.9
$2.5095 0.9 10.894 149.4
100 0.9 10.957 152.7
$3.0095 0.8 11.513 186.5
100 0.8 11.576 190.8
$3.5095 0.7 12.132 233.6
100 0.7 12.195 239.0
**Internally generated estimates
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Duvernay Shale - Resource Play
• 44 Gross, 43 Net sections held in liquids rich gas fairway
• Thickness 33 m, TOC 4-5%, Adsorbed gas 8–10%; porosity 8-10%
• Over pressured 15.6 KPa/m
• Expected recoveries of 70-100 bbls liquids per mmcf
• Over $1.4 B invested by industry on offset Duvernay rights
• Wells qualify for emerging technologies shale gas incentive of 10% royalty rate holiday for 36 months; no volume cap
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DVRN PRELIMINARY ECONOMICS
Gas Price $CDN/GJ Dry Gas 30bbl NGL / mmcf
Pay outNPVBT@
10%$ million
ROR Pay outNPVBT@
10%$ million
ROR
$2.50 6.7 <$0.39> 9% 1.9 $6.46 42%
$3.00 4.1 $1.48 15% 1.4 $10.37 71%
$4.00 2.4 $5.24 32% 1.1 $14.37 105%
$5.00 1.6 $9.00 55% 0.9 $18.37 145%
$6.00 1.3 $12.76 82% 0.8 $22.37 192%
**Internally generated estimates
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Peer Group Comparison(1) – 2 Year Average P+P F&D Costs (incl. FDC)
(1) Compared against selected peer group, $250mm EV to $1,500mm EV, 20% to 75% oil / liquids weighting
$11.00$11.77
$13.72 $13.86
$15.49$16.12
$17.11
$23.52
$32.12
$35.95
$37.79
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00Be
llatr
ixEx
plor
atio
nLt
d.
Average $20.77
2525
Peer Group Comparison (1) Recycle Ratio[2012E CF Netback / 2 Year P+P F&D (excl. FDC)]
1) Compared against selected peer group, $250 mm EV to $1,500mm EV, 20% to 75% oil / liquids weighting.
4.1x
3.8x 3.8x
3.6x
2.5x
2.0x 1.9x
1.6x1.6x
0.8x0.7x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
Bella
trix
Expl
orat
ion
Ltd.
Average 2.4x
2626
Peer Group Comparison(1) – EV / 2012E DACF
1) Compared against selected peer group, $250 mm EV to $1,500 mm EV, 20% to 70% oil / liquids weighting.
6.3x5.8x
5.0x 5.0x 4.6x 4.6x4.4x 4.3x 4.2x 4.1x
3.6x3.3x 3.2x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
Bella
trix
Exp
lora
tion
Ltd
.
Average 4.5x
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Summary
• Experienced management team with a proven track record of growing companies through the drill bit
• Focus on prudent business management through per share growth, hedging and debt maintenance
• Top tier asset base with a significant inventory of drill ready locations ($2.1 billion for Cardium and Notikewin)
• Low cost operator with a commitment to increasing oil and liquids weighting
• Near term growth catalysts with forecast 2012 exit rate of 19,000 to 19,500 boe/d
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Corporate Information
BOARD OF DIRECTORSW.C. (Mickey) DunnChairman
Doug Baker, FCA
Murray L. Cobbe
John H. Cuthbertson, QC
Melvin M. Hawkrigg, BA, FCA, LLD (Hon.)
Robert A. Johnson, P.Geol.
Keith Macdonald, CA
Raymond G. Smith, P. Eng.
Murray B. Todd, B.Sc., P. Eng.
OFFICERSRaymond G. Smith, P.Eng.President & CEO
Edward J. Brown, CAVice President, Finance & CFO
Ving Y. Woo, P.Eng.Vice President & COO
Russell G. Oicle, P.Geol.Vice President, Exploration
Tim A. BlairVice President, Land
Garrett K. Ulmer, P.Eng.Vice President, Engineering
EXCHANGE LISTINGThe Toronto Stock ExchangeBXE
BANKERSNational Bank of CanadaAlberta Treasury BranchesHSBC Bank Canada
EVALUATION ENGINEERSGLJ Petroleum ConsultantsSproule Associates Limited
REGISTRAR & TRANSFER AGENTComputershare Trust Company of Canada
LEGAL COUNSELBurnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP
AUDITORSKPMG LLP
2929
Analyst Coverage
Analyst Firm
Jeremy McCrea AltaCorp Capital
Omid Ameri Byron Securities
Brian Kristjansen Canaccord Genuity
Kevin Shaw Casimir Capital
Arthur Grayfer CIBC
Chris Bolton Fraser Mackenzie
Geoff Ready Haywood Securities
Christina Lopez Macquarie Capital
Dan Payne National Bank Financial
Ken Lin Paradigm Capital
Paul Lee Scotia Capital
3030
Legal Disclaimer
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS: Certain information contained herein may contain forward looking statements including management's assessment offuture plans and operations, drilling plans and the timing thereof, commodity price risk management strategies, expected 2012 average production and exit rate,estimates of commodity prices and exchange rates, estimated 2012 cash from operations, estimated recovery from wells to be drilled in 2012 capitalexpenditures and the nature of capital expenditures and cash from operations per share and estimated 2012 year end debt levels, may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws and necessarily involve risks including, without limitation, risks associated with oil and gas exploration,development, exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision of reserveestimates, actual results from wells to be drilled may not be similar to the results from previous wells drilled, environmental risks, competition from otherproducers, inability to retain drilling rigs and other services, incorrect assessment of the value of acquisitions, failure to realize the anticipated benefits ofacquisitions, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources.The recovery and estimates of Bellatrix's reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered.Events or circumstances may cause actual results to differ materially from those predicted, as a result of the risk factors set out and other known and unknownrisks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Bellatrix. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of allfactors and assumptions which have been used. As a consequence, actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-lookingstatements. Additional information on these and other factors that could effect Bellatrix's operations and financial results are included in reports on file withCanadian securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com), at Bellatrix's website(www.bellatrixexploration.com). Estimated 2012 cash from operations, cash per share and 2012 year end debt levels may constitute financial outlooks underapplicable securities laws and were approved by management on January 23, 2012. The foregoing are included to provide readers with information as to theexpected impact results on the cash from operations of the Corporation during the periods indicated and the ability of the Company to fund its ongoingoperations and capital expenditures and the resulting debt and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The forward-looking statements contained herein aremade as at the date hereof and Bellatrix does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements,whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
NON-GAAP MEASURES: This presentation contains the term "cash from operations" which should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than"cash flow from operating activities" as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP as an indicator of the Company's performance. Therefore reference tocash from operations or cash from operations per share may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures for other entities. Management usescash from operations to analyze operating performance and leverage and considers cash from operations to be a key measure as it demonstrates theCompany's ability to generate the cash necessary to fund future capital investments and to repay debt. The reconciliation between cash flow from operatingactivities and funds flow from operations (the Company calculates funds flow from operations in the same manner as cash from operations) can be found in theCompany's Management's Discussion and Analysis which is available through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com). Cash from operations per share iscalculated using the weighted average number of shares for the period
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Legal Disclaimer
.
FD&A COSTS: This presentation includes calculations of finding, development and acquisition ("FD&A") costs for the year ended December 31, 2011. NationalInstrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101") requires that written disclosure of finding and development costs to becalculated in accordance with Section 5.15 of NI 51-101 which does not include the reserves additions associated with acquisitions or the costs of acquisitions inthe calculation. The calculations of FD&A in this presentation include the reserves additions associated with acquisitions and the costs of acquisitions as theCompany believes that including the effect of acquisitions provides useful information to investors. FD&A costs for the year ended December 31, 2011 and 2010are $9.29/boe and $12.89/ proved plus probable boe respectively and the average FD&A for the last three completed years is $13.69/ proved plus probable boe.The finding and developments costs calculated in accordance with Section 5.15 of NI 51-101 for the years ended December 31, 2011 and 2010 are$13.00/proved boe ($9.29/proved plus probable boe) and $8.37/proved boe ($6.06/proved plus probable boe) and the average finding and development costs forthe last three completed years is $10.59/proved boe ($13.69/proved plus probable boe). The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in themost recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costsrelated to reserve additions for that year.
BOE PRESENTATION: In this presentation, production is stated in barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) using a six to one conversion basis when convertingthousands of cubic feet of natural gas to barrels of oil and a one to one conversion basis for natural gas liquids. Such conversion may be misleading, particularly ifused in isolation. A 6:1 conversion ratio is based on energy equivalence between natural gas and oil at the burner tip and does not represent economicequivalence at the wellhead or point of sale.
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE RECOVERY (EUR): In this presentation, estimated ultimate recovery for Cardium oil wells is a representative value within the range ofestimates of proved plus probable reserves per well as evaluated by Sproule Associates Limited effective June 30, 2011 based on forecast prices andcosts. Estimated ultimate recovery for Notikewin wells is a representative value within the range of estimates of proved plus probable reserves per well asevaluated by Sproule Associates Limited effective June 30, 2011 based on forecast prices and costs. Estimated ultimate recovery for Duvernay wells does notrepresent an estimate of resources but has been provided to show management's assumptions used for its internal projections and plans. There is no certaintythat any resources will be discovered for such Duvernay wells. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of theresources.
3232
2300, 530 – 8th Avenue SWCalgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3S8
Tel: (403) 266-8670 Fax: (403) 264-8163
www.bellatrixexploration.com