belen martrat & euromed-ocean2k contributors … differing amplitude for post-industrial warming...

1

& EuroMed-Ocean2k contributorsBelen Martrat

Consistent land-ocean pre-industrial cooling trend in the Europe/Mediterranean region,

but differing amplitude for post-industrial warming

(High Res) annual resolution_corals

(Low Res) bi-centennial resolution_sediments

PAGES Ocean2k working group, 2015

(Continental) Terrestrial2k

Ocean2kTierney et al., 2015, PALEO.

PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013, NATURE GEO.

!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!( !(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!( !(

!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!( !(!(!( !( !( !(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!( !(!(!(!( !(

!( !(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!( !(

!(

!( !(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(!(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

Pacific

Atlantic

Indian

Southern

Arctic

Med



Martrat et al., in prep.

!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!( !(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!( !(

!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!( !(!(!( !( !( !(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!( !(!(!(!( !(

!( !(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!( !(

!(

!( !(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(!(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

Pacific

Atlantic

Indian

Southern

Arctic

Med

N= 57

PAGES Ocean2k working group, 2015Low Res

PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013, NATURE GEO.

N= 511

tropics

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

PAGES Ocean2k working group, 2015Low ResN= 57


CCMS4CSIRO Mk3L_4 LOVECLIM

BCC-CMS-1-1FGOALS-s2MPI-ESM

The network shouldrepresent the global mean; although some areas are not highly correlated with globaltemperatureArctic

Med

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (ºC)global


Medieval Climate AnomalyDark Ages Little Ice AgeRoman Warm Period

number of age control points 14C, tephra layers

N= 57

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

15

23

30

0


210Pb, post-bomb 14C

1525

2925 27

4135 33 36

Med_4

Pac_16Sou_4Atla_29

Arct_2Ind_2

’bins’

2

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



The series were standardised (subtract the mean and divide by the standard deviation);for each data series, measurements were averaged to one value per 200-year bin (age uncertainty on 14C dating)

box width: 200-year intervals; central mark: median; edges of the box: 25th & 75th percentiles; whiskers: extreme values (~99% of data); plusses: outliers (~1% of data)

’bins’

N= 57

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3



PAGES Ocean2k working group, 2015

Little ice agepaleothermometer

Low ResYear CE

response seasonality

sampling resolution

Sens

itivi

tyte

sts

dem

ostra

teth

atth

etre

ndis

robu

st

chronological resolution

latitude

basin

upwelling

sedimentation rate

water depth

hemisphere

N= 57

SST (s. d.)global

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 median 1error estimates &number of records

per subcategory

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global




N= 57

The pre-industrial cooling trend seems insensitive to potential biases in the underlying reconstructions. However, scarcity of measurements prior to 800 CE prevents us from making sound inferences about climatic changes during this interval.


100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



The pre-industrial cooling trend seems insensitive to potential biases in the underlying reconstructions. However, scarcity of measurements prior to 800 CE prevents us from making sound inferences about climatic changes during this interval.

29 (191)33 (236) 38 (271)

43 (315)

N= 57

sites per bin (measurements per bin)

40 (1189)


100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



N= 57

Test of significance of bin-over-bin slopes (t-test + Mann-Whitney U signed-rank test):

significant pre-industrial cooling into the 1100, 1300, 1500, 1700 bins

45 (372) 45 (396)49 (625)

44 (666)44 (836)


s.d/100 years -0.07-0.18 -0.06


40 (1189)

-0.17


SS

T (s

. d.)

glob

al

Year CE

Ocean2k

Terrestrial2k

Multi-model

The cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with the independent synthesis of

terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with SST simulated by

an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past forcings. Distribution (grey lines) and median (black line) of 10,000 Monte Carlo trend estimates are displayed.

likelihood p= 82%, slope m= -1.49 s.d/millennium



4445

4944 40

70 183207 258 338

N= 57

900 1100 1300 1500 1700

Little ice age

0

-2

2

0

-2

2

0

-2

2

3

Knutti, 2008, PHIL. TRANS. R. SOC.

CCMS4

CSIRO Mk3L_4

LOVECLIM

BCC-CMS-1-1

FGOALS-s2

MPI-ESM

Multi-model


The ocean SST cooling trendis a response to increased

frequency of explosive volcanism during the LIA.

LOVECLIMCSIRO Mk3L_4negative slope

slope m (s. d. /millenium)

global

likelihoodp (m<0 %)

Oce

an2k

Oce

an2korbital green

house gas

solarvolcanism

land use

orbital greenhouse gas

solarvolcanism+

+ +

+

combinedcumulative

-1.49 -1.49


-2

0

50

100

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



N= 57

45 (372) 45 (396)49 (625)

44 (666)44 (836)

s.d/100 years -0.07-0.17 -0.18 -0.06


significant pre-industrial cooling into the 1100, 1300, 1500, 1700 bins


100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



N= 57


significant post-industrial warming into the last bin

40 (1189)


s.d/100 years +0.08


100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

1

2

3

0

-1

-2

-3

Year CE

’last bin’

SST (s. d.)global



N= 21

From 1801 to 2000 CE, for each data series, measurements were averaged to one value per 25-year bin (age uncertainty on 210Pb dating)

21 (916)

’mini-bins’sites per bin (measurements per bin)

s.d/100 years +0.08


-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

Year CE

’last bin’


Ocean2kpaleo_observations

20 (123)


21 (153) 20 (147)20 (157) 18 (141)

17 (114) SST (s. d.)global

’mini-bins’

From 1801 to 2000 CE, for each data series, measurements were averaged to one value per 25-year bin (age uncertainty on 210Pb dating)

post-industrial warming?

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

Year CE

’last bin’


SST (s. d.)global


Kaplaninstrumental

R2 = 0.26, p = 0.30n = 6 data bins (25-year each)

~ 150 years

20 (123)


21 (153) 20 (147)20 (157) 18 (141)

17 (114)

post-industrial warming?http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/ …

KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

Year CE

’last bin’


SST (s. d.)global


Kaplaninstrumental

Tropical

SST (s. d.)global

paleothermometerlatitude upwelling

Extra-tropical NH

Mg/Ca

Alkenones

Non-upwelling

Upwelling


Year CE

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

1863 1888 1913 1938 1963 1988

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

’last bin’


SST (s. d.)global


Kaplaninstrumental

Tropical

SST (s. d.)global

paleothermometerlatitude upwellingMg/Ca

Alkenones

Non-upwelling

R2 = 0.56, p = 0.09R2 = 0.79, p = 0.02

Extra-tropical NH Upwelling

Year CE

Sens

itivi

tyte

sts

dem

ostra

teth

atth

etre

ndis

robu

st


!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!( !(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!( !(

!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!( !(!(!( !( !( !(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!( !(!(!(!( !(

!( !(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!( !(

!(

!( !(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!( !(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(!( !(

!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(!(

!(!( !(

!(!(!(!( !(!(

!(!(!( !(!(!(!(!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(!(

!(

!( !(!(!(

!(!(

!(!(!(

!(

Pacific

Atlantic

Indian

Southern

Arctic

Med




!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!( !(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

22.5

15.1

SST ºCinstrumental 1951-2002

MedAtlas

LionsPyr12

Fra12

Swi06 Tat12

Alb12

Jae11

Alboran

Balearic Taranto Aegean

Sicily



Aus11 Car09

Nsc12

Tor92

Iceland

N= 11

N= 12


!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!( !(

!(!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(!(

LionsPyr12

Fra12

Swi06 Tat12

Alb12

Jae11

Alboran

Balearic Taranto Aegean

Sicily



Aus11 Car09

Nsc12

Tor92

Iceland

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

100

200

300

Taranto

0 10 20 30

0

100

200

300

Sicily, Aegean

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

200

400

600

Alboran basin

0 1 2 3 4

0

200

400

600 210Pbexcess (Bq kg-1)

Depth

Depth

210Pbexcess (Bq kg-1)


Depth

Depth



Gulf of Lions, Balearic basin

5

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1800

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

Year CE

’last bin’Medieval Climate AnomalyDark Ages Little Ice AgeRoman Warm Period

Consistent land-ocean pre-industrial cooling trend …

SS

T (s

. d.)

Med

iterr

anea

n

R2= 0.96, slope m= -1.11 s.d/millennium

’mini-bins’’bins’Ocean2k_Mediterranean


1900 100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1800

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

50

0

Year CE

’last bin’Medieval Climate AnomalyDark Ages Little Ice AgeRoman Warm Period

… volcanism, land use change

SS

T (s

. d.)

Med

iterr

anea

n

s.d/150 years +0.6




1900

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1800

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

Year CE

’last bin’

SS

T (s

. d.)

Euro

pe


SS

T (s

. d.)

Med

iterr

anea

n





Terrestrial2k_Europe


1900

s.d/150 years +1.7

Year CE

’last bin’

SS

T (s

. d.)

Euro

pe


… but differing amplitude for post-industrial warming

SS

T (s

. d.)

Med

iterr

anea

n

s.d/150 years +0.6




100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1800

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

1900

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1800

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

-2

0

2

s.d/150 years +1.7

Year CE

’last bin’

SS

T (s

. d.)

Euro

pe


… but differing amplitude for post-industrial warming

SS

T (s

. d.)

Med

iterr

anea

n

s.d/150 years +0.6




CEnglandTinstrumental

R2=0.81, p=0.01

1900


• During the pre-industrial time interval, we find a robust global/Europe/Mediterranean cooling trend: land-ocean signals present common significant cooling trends (~ –1 s. d. units/millennium), attributable to the anomalous cold temperatures registered during the Little Ice Age, i.e. land-ocean homogeneous response to a common forcing: volcanism, land cover changes ? extend and improve available knowledge on past atmospheric patterns (NAO, EA, etc)

• During the post-industrial time interval, the land composite registers warming ~ +2 s. d. units . The warming is of lower amplitude in the ocean composite, ~1 s. d. units… main reasons ? location ? We need well-dated reconstructions (210Pb, varved) and rigorous quality control (evaluation of sites individually,

uncertainties, sensitivity tests!) e.g. what about the Medieval Climate Anomaly ? the answer to the question whether the last century is likely the warmest climatic period of the latest 2k remains elusive!



belen martrat & euromed-ocean2k contributors … differing amplitude for post-industrial warming...

Documents