behind the great walltwvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2014/... · in 2013，the ratio of android...

Behind The Great Wall �

Leo Cui, Founder & CEO

A Deep dive into the Chinese Mobile Gaming Market �

Data � sources: � TalkingData � Data � Center �

BIG DATA MOBILE INTERNET +

China’s largest data service provider for Mobile Gaming �

Analytics TalkingGame AppCPA Insight Analytics for mobile games Mobile Ad Tracking � Market Intelligence App Analytics

HOT


By the end of 2013,

Accessing � 400m+ Smart Devices �

Serving 5000+ Mobile Games

60,000,000 � �

110,000,000 � � 140,000,000 � �

230,000,000 � �

400,000,000 � �

0 � �

100,000,000 � �

200,000,000 � �

300,000,000 � �

400,000,000 � �

2012-Feb � May-12 � Aug-12 � Nov-12 � Feb-13 � May-13 � Aug-13 � Dec-13 �

Smart � Device � Access �


By the end of 2013,

Over � 40% top grossing chart of Appstore �

Around � 80%+ Midcore & Hardcore mobile games.


Operators CPs Channels AD Networks Publishers

80% Top Ad Networks �

100% Top Publishers �

80% Smart Device

Access �

90% Top Android

Channels �


Market Stats in 2013 � 1 � Total Gamers Spending Devices Revenues �


0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4

Active � Devices � Mobile � Gamers �

64%

77%

89% 96%

The � Ratio � of � Transitory � Mobile � Gamers �

Total volume of smartphone users continued to rise in each quarter, doubling every six months.

Transitory mobile gamers (people who have played any kind of mobile games) grew in numbers, and the

growth rate is 1.5 times that of the industry.

In 2013, China has become the largest market of mobile gaming.

191m

253m

393m

550m

123m

195m

349m

528m



In 2013，the ratio of Android and iOS distribution widened from 6:4 to 7:3.

The most of growth come from low-end android devices


61% 65% 70% 71%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4

Android Player iOS Player


Market share of domestic brands of Android device reached nearly 2/3； � And Total share of Top 10 brands is decreasing; Makes the device market more FRAGMENTED

The market of smartphones become more fragmented

Rank � Company � Share% � -2014.1 � 6month � before �

1 � Samsung � 28.67% � 37.69% � -9.01% �

2 � Xiaomi � 9.37% � 5.34% � 4.04% �

3 � OPPO � 4.57% � 2.38% � 2.19% �

4 � HTC � 3.87% � 4.83% � -0.96% �

5 � BBK � 3.78% � 1.82% � 1.96% �

6 � YuLong � 3.27% � 2.93% � 0.34% �

7 � LENOVO � 2.00% � 3.47% � -1.48% �

8 � SONY � 1.86% � 2.68% � -0.82% �

9 � HUAWEI � 1.86% � 3.59% � -1.73% �

10 � GIONEE � 1.61% � -- �

TOP � 10 � Total � 60.86% � 66.49% � -5.63% �

45% � 61% �

0% �

20% �

40% �

60% �

80% �

100% �

2013-7 � 2014-1 �

Global � Brands � Local � Brands �


l  No single model exceeds 3%

market share in 2013; While

Samsung had 4 models exceeding

5% in 2012

l  Fragmented by too many options

that enjoy very close market share

�

l  High-end（>￥2000）is still the

first choice for the majority; While

low-end(<￥1000)’s demand

started increasing

l  Xiaomi(8 in Top 15) Vs Samsung(5

in Top 15), local competency is

getting stronger in a fast pace

Top Android device in China

0.56% �

0.58% �

0.60% �

0.66% �

0.81% �

0.89% �

0.90% �

0.92% �

0.96% �

0.97% �

1.12% �

1.45% �

1.69% �

2.14% �

2.33% �

0% � 1% � 2% � 3% �

Xiaomi � MI-ONE � Plus �

HUAWEI � C8815 �

Samsung � GT-S7562 �

ZTE � U880E �

Xiaomi � MI � 2A �

Xiaomi � 红米 �

Xiaomi � 1S �

Xiaomi � MI � 3 �

Xiaomi � MI � 2SC �

Samsung � GT-I9100 �

Xiaomi � MI � 2 �

Samsung � GT-I9500 �

Xiaomi � MI � 2S �

Samsung � GT-N7100 �

Samsung � GT-I9300 � ￥1750-2480 �

￥2300-4699 �

￥1299-1899 �

￥2800-3600 �

￥1949-2599 � �

￥1350 �

￥1299-1899 � �

￥1999 �

￥1099 �

￥799 �

￥1499 �

￥390 �

￥750 �

￥800 �

￥1299 �


3.86% 5.37%

7.42%

9.76%

The Cummulative Ratio of Spenders

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

Number of Spenders

The cumulative proportion of money spenders is 2.5 times that compared to the beginning of the year. The

absolute number of money spenders has increased five times+.

More and more people would like to pay for mobile games


13.58m

29.17m

53.68 m

7.39m


Deep into Player Behaviors � 2 � Install � � � Update � � Gaming � � Spending Uninstall �


As of December 31, every active device has an average of 5.59 games installed. This represents 1/4 of the

total number of apps per device.

54% are casual games, 24% are strategy/card games, and 22% are other types of games.

Casual games compose of a majority of all the game installations

5.59

18.45

0% �

50% �

100% �

All � types � (this � does � not � include � factory � preinstalled � applications) �

Game � Non-Game �

22%

24%

54%

0% � 35% � 70% �

Other �

Card � & � Board �

Casual �

Proportion � of � different � game � genres �


On average, a player installs a new game every 3.48 days. 30% of players install 6 to 10 games per month.

They prefer to download new games on their day off. The period between Friday evening and Sunday

accounts for half of the week’s installation.

�

Players install new games every 3.48 days on average Prefer to install over weekends

10.3% �

5.2% �

16.4% �

29.1% �

23.6% �

10.1% �

3.5% �

1.8% �

0% � 10% � 20% � 30% � 40% �

1 �

2 �

3～5 �

6～10 �

11～20 �

21～30 �

31～40 �

40+ �

Player � distribution � data � based � on � game � installation � receipts � in � December �

11.6% � 10.7% �

12.3% �

14.0% � 14.9% �

18.9% �

17.7% �

10% �

12% �

14% �

16% �

18% �

20% �

Mon � Tue � Wed � Thu � Fri � Sat � Sun �

Proportion � of � installations � during � the � week �


Android gamers prefer to download games from third-party markets which bring 80% of the distribution volume;

iOS gamers prefer to download from official sources, with 60% of the download coming from App Store.

�

Where do the players go to find new games to download and install?

8%

11%

24% 57%

Android Distribution

Other � Google � Play � Other � 3rd � Party � App � Stores � Mobile � Assistants �

11% �

24% �

65% �

iOS Distribution

Non-jailbreak � App � Stores �

Jailbreak � Channels �

Apple � AppStore �


After the release of a game update, 62% of the existing players update within 2 days. After 2 days, only 9%

of players perform the update.

Almost 30% of players never perform any updates. Games that adopt required full-package updates cause

an increase to the churn rate (criteria: 7 consecutive days without playing a game) on the day of the update.

Every required update causes an exodus of 4.2% of the existing players.

�

Do players like to update their games? What kinds of problems do updates cause players?

43%

19%

9%

29%

0% 25% 50%

On Day0

On Day1

After Day1

Never

Active � Players% � Before � Updates � �

24.6% 28.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Routine Days Forcing Updates

Comparison � between � churn rate � on � routine � days � and � forcing update � days � �


Players spend an average of 32 minutes per day playing games.

28% of players spend over 1 hour per day playing games. They are considered heavy or “mid-core” gamers.

�

How much time do players assign to gameplay per day?

19.4% �

16.3% �

17.1% �

17.2% �

14.5% �

9.8% �

5.7% �

0% � 10% � 20% � 30% �

<10min �

10～20min �

20～30min �

30～60min �

1～2hour �

2～4hour �

>4hour �

Daily � Gaming � Time � Spend �


82% of active gamers play a variety of games every day. However, players only play 2.4 types of games per

day on average. They allocate 86% of their time to their primary games. �

How many games do players play per day? How do they allocate their time?

18% �

82% �

0% �

50% �

100% �

1 � >=2 �

Daily � gaming � titles � �

Primary � title, � 86% �

Other � titles, � 14% �

Time � allocation � for � different � daily � playing � games �

Primary � title � Other � titles �


Mid-day and evenings are the peak periods for gameplay. Evenings attract many ‘night-owl’ gamers, and an

obvious trend of after-hour gameplay is towards midnight.

When do players like to play games?

0% �

3% �

6% �

9% �

0 � 1 � 2 � 3 � 4 � 5 � 6 � 7 � 8 � 9 � 10 � 11 � 12 � 13 � 14 � 15 � 16 � 17 � 18 � 19 � 20 � 21 � 22 � 23 �

Daypart �


WiFi � 48% �

3G � 24% �

2G � 28% �

Connectivity Type During Gameplay �

74% of the players use WiFi network connections when they visit the app markets. During gameplays, only 48%

use WiFi.

Compared to the beginning of the year, the proportion of 3G use has gone down rather than up.

�

What is player connectivity like?


45% of mobile gamers choose casual games as their primary games

30% choose card/strategy games.

Where do players spend their money?

19% �

11% �

31% �

39% �

0% � 10% � 20% � 30% � 40% �

All �

Card � Battle �


Casual �

Initial � Game � Type � for � Players �

26% �

18% �

11% �

45% �

0% � 25% � 50% �

All �

Card � Battle �


Casual �

Initial � Genres � of � Spending �


Card Battle, turn-based RPG, and MMORPG games account for more than 70% of total mobile games’

earnings.

The low development cost and high profit return nature of cards games is still a key point of attraction for

developers. The proportion of earnings from casual games have increased.

On which types of games are players more willing to spend money?

31.2% �

11.3% �

17.3% �

23.4% �

4.7% � 4.3% � 2.3% � 3.8% � 1.7% �

0% �

10% �

20% �

30% �

40% �

Card � Battle � SLG � MMORPG � Turn � based � RPG �

Action � Card � & � Board �

Tower � Defense �

Casual � Other �

Revenue � By � Genres �


Spend and topping-up behavior is more evenly spread during the day, particularly for casual games.

As many players play at night, the spend activity also tend to be more focused at night.

When do players like to spend / top-up?

0% �

3% �

6% �

9% �

0 � 1 � 2 � 3 � 4 � 5 � 6 � 7 � 8 � 9 � 10 � 11 � 12 � 13 � 14 � 15 � 16 � 17 � 18 � 19 � 20 � 21 � 22 � 23 �

Daily � Spending � Times � Distribution �


The proportion of pre-pay cards and service cards are gradually dwindling.

Payment via Alipay has become the mainstream pre-pay method.

Which payment methods do players prefer?

AliPay, � 59% � UniPay, � 20% �

TenPay, � 10% �

Service � Card, � 7% � Pre-paid � Card, � 4% �

The � ratio � of � transactions � via � various � payment � methods � �

AliPay � UniPay � TenPay � Service � Card � Pre-paid � Card �

AliPay, � 49% �

UniPay, � 25% �

TenPay, � 13% �

Service � Card, � 7% �

Pre-paid � Card, � 6% �

The � Ratio � of � Spend � �


79.18% 90.12%

9.88% 0.2082

Proportion of uninstallation occurring within 2.66 days of a player’s abandoning a game.

�

Uninstallation Keep Installed

Abandoning：No � login � for � 3+ � consecutive � days �

Approximately 80% of players uninstall a game 2.66 days after abandoning the game. If the player doesn’t uninstall

the game and doesn’t log into the game, then 90% of them become "zombie" players of the game. For at least one

month, the player neither plays nor uninstalls the game. On average, each player becomes a “zombie” player for about

2 games. This accounts for approximately 2.78% of the game applications on a single device.

�

How long until a player uninstalls a game? The performance of "zombie" players in games


Spread out Virally, retention is good。 �

WeChat games are phenomenal things

0% �

2% �

4% �

6% �

8% �

10% �

12% �

14% �

2013-11-14 � 2013-12-14 � 2014-1-14 � 2014-2-14 � 2014-3-14 �

天天飞车 � 全民飞机大战 �

12-15 �

1-1 �


Trending Forecast � 3 � Operation � � Genres Market size �


Mobile game operations has shifted to mirror web game development, highlighted by the phenomenon of

short usage life cycles. After 20 days of gameplay, the player stops deriving value from a game. The average

value of the single-player is about 4 RMB (less than $1) overall.

�

¥0

¥2

¥4

¥6

1日 �

2日 �

3日 �

4日 �

5日 �

6日 �

7日 �

8日 �

9日 �

10日

�

11日

�

12日

�

13日

�

14日

�

15日

�

16日

�

17日

�

18日

�

19日

�

20日

�

21日

�

22日

�

23日

�

24日

�

25日

�

26日

�

27日

�

28日

�

29日

�

30日

�

60日

�

90日

�

Industry Average LTV of Players �

Avg.LTV

LT

Value

LTV=ARPU×LT

Enhancing the player’s LTV is the focus of 2014


1.9%

3.0%

3.4%

5.6%

0% � 2% � 4% � 6% � 8% � 10% �

All �

SLG �

RPG �

Card � Battle �

Main � types � of � monthly � spending � rates �

¥114 � �

¥320 � �

¥354 � �

¥274 � �

0 � � 100 � � 200 � � 300 � � 400 � �

All �

SLG �

RPG �

Card � Battle �

ARPPU � of � Main � Types �

Single-player user experience game spend continue to do well. RPG & Card Battle are expected to continue

their strong performance in 2014.

With their frequent payment rates and high spending amounts, RPG & card battle are expected to continue their strong performance in 2014 �


0.5X �

0.51X �

X �

Android �

其它 �

iOS �

RPG � ARPPU � by � OSs �

51.31% �

41.28% �

5.46% � 1.95% �

iOS � Android � iOS � JailBreak � Other �

RPG � Revenue � by � OSs �

In 2013, the RPG game earnings that focused on iOS players accounted for 57%. This is mainly due to the

characteristic of iOS gamers and the higher-level device support afforded by iOS to high-quality RPG games.

The number of Android players on ARPPU is about half that of iOS players. Although ARPPU is slightly better on other

operating systems than Android, their number tends to be small, and needs to be observed in the long-term.

�

As a contributor to the future earnings of RPG games, iOS is still a focal point


5 � � 8.4 � � 18 � �

0 � �

60 � �

120 � �

180 � �

2012 � 2013 � 2014 �

Revenue � Size � Of � The � Chinese � Mobile � Gaming � Market（Billion � RMB） �

2012 � 2013 � 2014 �

Formula � Behind �

2014 � Total � players: � 780m �

2014 � Paid � User%: � � 11.8% �

2014 � ARPU: � ￥198 �

Total � Revenue： � ￥18B �

=

In 2014, the opportunity is up to $3.5-4.0 billion. �


Refer �

Revenue �

Retention �

Activation �

Acquisition �

TalkingData � AARRR � Model � For � Mobile � Game � Operation � TalkingData � White � Paper � For � �

Mobile � Game � Data � Analysis �


Description � ★ � TouchArcade.com � HOT � NEW � GAME � ★ � �

Versions � Initial � release：Sep � 14, � 2012 � Second � version：Nov � 1, � 2012 �

Puzzle � + � Battle � � + � Collection � + � EDU � �


Test in App Store , without marketing


n  DAU n  Day 1 retention n  Day 7 retention n  Virtual income n  Marketing Users �

How to optimize? KPI Dashboards and Alerts – Why did it Happen? – Advantage - Dashboards


41.2% �

3.7% �

9.0% �

28.4% �

21.8% �

10.9% �

0% � 10% � 20% � 30% � 40% � 50% �

One � Session � Players% �

Day30 � Retention% �



Monthly � Active � Users% �

Weekly � Active � Users% �

Benchmark concerning recent key indicators of the mobile gaming industry


The most Important Metric between Initial release.

n The first experience � n WHY？ It’s been relatively Low �

Day 1 Retention

18.2% Alert

Avg.


Why？

Bad Day 1 retention, but kind of okay of Day2.


Loading Connect Sign up


Abruptly � lost � introduction �

Bad Connetion

Funnel analysis to find pitfalls of game design


n  Move to more reliable data center n  Consider domestic and overseas server distribution n  Simplify introduction, less steps n  Embellish introduction n  Polish pet UI to make it more attractive �

How to optimize?


Difficulty？ Operation.

n Daily awards � n Know players progress � n Pay attention to degree of difficulty of early levels �


n  Daily task n  Login bonus n  Scheduled copy n  Bonus pet n  Friends aid

Only 9 %，WHY？


Difficulty？


Make more money.

n A/B test � n Drill down � n Whale �


Compared � to � revenue � graph, � purchase � is �

distributed � more � balanced � and � forwarding �

Is � it � possible � to � let � more � players � make �

purchase � earlier? �

How to optimize in app purchase?


Extra gems?

Bonus pets?

What’s your opinions?


The result of new version is great!


www.talkingdata.com www.talkinggame.com

[email protected]

Thanks

behind the great walltwvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2014/... · in 2013，the ratio of android...

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