bcd_091976

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This report was prepared in the Statistical IndicatorsDivision, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technicalstaff and their responsibilities for the publicationare-

Barry A. BeckmanTechnical supervision andreview,

Morton SomerSelection of seasonal adjustmentmethods,

Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation ofbasic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)

The cooperation of various government and privateagencies which provide data is gratefully acknowl-edged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in thelist of series and sources at the back of this report.

This publication is prepared under the generalguidance of a technical committee established by theOffice of Management and Budget. The committeeconsists of the following persons:

Julius Shiskin, Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics,Department of Labor

Joseph W, Duncan, Office of Management and BudgetSidney L. Jones, Department of the TreasuryBurton G. Malkiel, Council of Economic Advisers,

Executive Office of the PresidentJ. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve BoardBeatrice N. Vaccara, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

Department of Commerce

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEElliot L. Richardson, Secretary

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSISGeorge Jaszi, Director

Morris R. Goldman, Deputy DirectorBeatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National

Analysis and ProjectionsFeliks Tamm, Editor

NATIONALINCOME ANDPRODUCT accounts sum-marize both receipts andfinal expenditures for thepersona/, business, for-eign, and governmentsectors of the economyand provide usefulmeasures of totaleconomic activity. Thetotal of the finalexpenditures, whichequals the total of thereceipts, is known asgross national product,the most compre-hensive single measureof aggregate economicoutput. GNP is definedas the total marketvalue of the final out-put of goods and serv-ices produced by theNation's economy.

CYCLICALINDICATORSare economic timeseries which have beensingled out as leaders, co-inciders, or laggers in re-lation to movements inaggregate economicactivity. In this report,the series on theNBER 's list o f cyclicalindicators are classifiedby economic processand by cyclical timing.These indicators wereselected primarily onthe basis of theircyclical behavior, butthey have also provenuseful in forecasting,measuring, andinterpreting othershort-term fluctuationsin aggregate economicactivity.

ANTICIPATIONSANDINTENTIONSdataprovide informationon the plans ofbusinessmen and con-sumers regarding theirmajor economic activi-ties in the near future.This information is con-sidered to be a valuableaid to economic fore-casting either directlyor as an indication ofthe state of confidenceconcerning the eco-nomic outlook. Anumber of surveys byvarious organizationsand governmentagencies have beendeveloped in recentyears to ascertainanticipations andintentions. The resultsof some of thesesurveys, expressed astime series, arepresented in thisreport.

This monthly report brings together many of the economictime series found most useful by business analysts andforecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis ofbusiness conditions and was based largely on the list ofleading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators main-tained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Some other approaches commonly used by students ofeconomic condition:; include econometric models andanticipations and intentions data. The econometric modelconcept utilizes historical and mathematical relationshipsamong consumption, private investment, government, andvarious components of the major aggregates to generateforecasts of gross national product and its composition.Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations ofbusinessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of thecontent of Business Cycle Developments has been retained inthis new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis ofother approaches have been added to make it more generallyuseful to those concerned with an evaluation of currentbusiness conditions and prospects.

The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators andbusiness cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators sectionof this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not tobe taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau ofEconomic Analysis or any other government agency of anyparticular approach to economic analysis. This report isintended only to provide statistical information so arrangedas to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation'seconomy.

Almost all of the basic data presented in this report havebeen published by their source agencies. A series findingguide, as well as a complete list of series titles and datasources, is shown at the back of this report.

Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 addi-tional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. For information con-cerning foreign airmail delivery, available at an additional charge, write the

Superintendent of Documents {address follows), enclosing a copy of youraddress label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents.Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.


licitBUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

SEPTEMBER 1976Data Through AugustSeries ES1 No. 76-9

New Features and Changes for This Issue iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATIONSeasonal Adjustments 1MCD Moving Averages 1Reference Turning Dates 1Section A. National Income and Product 1Section B. Cyclical Indicators 2Section C. Anticipations and Intentions 3Section D. Other Key Indicators 3Section E. Analytical Measures 3Section F. International Comparisons 3How to Read Charts 4How to Locate a Series 4Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 5

PART I. CHARTS

A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9

A10A11

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCTGross National ProductNational and Personal IncomePersonal Consumption ExpendituresGross Private Domestic InvestmentForeign TradeGovernment Purchases of Goods and Services .Final Sales and InventoriesNational Income ComponentsSavingReal Gross National ProductShares of GNP and National Income

910111213141516171819

D3D4D5D6

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONSAggregate Series 44Diffusion Indexes 46

OTHER KEY INDICATORSForeign Trade 48Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49Federal Government Activities 54Price Movements 56Wages and Productivity 58Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 60

B2B3B4B5B6

B7B8

CYCLICAL INDICATORSEconomic Process and Cyclical TimingEmployment and UnemploymentProduction, Income, Consumption, and TradeFixed Capital InvestmentInventories and Inventory InvestmentPrices, Costs, and ProfitsMoney and CreditSelected Indicators by TimingComposite IndexesNBER Short List

202325283033

3739

ANALYTICAL MEASURESActual and Potential Gross National Product ... 61Analytical Ratios 62Diffusion Indexes 63Rates of Change 65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSConsumer Prices 66Industrial Production 67Stock Prices 68

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required bylaw of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget throughSeptember 1, 1980.


PART II. TABLES

A3A4A5A6A7A8A9

A10A11

nB1B2B3B4B5B6

B7

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCTGross National Product 69National and Personal Income 69Personal Consumption Expenditures 70Gross Private Domestic Investment 70Foreign Trade 71Government Purchases of Goods and Services .. 71Final Sales and Inventories 71National Income Components 71Saving 72Real Gross National Product 72Shares of GNP and National Income 73

CYCLICAL INDICATORSEconomic Process and Cyclical TimingEmployment and UnemploymentProduction, Income, Consumption, and TradeFixed Capital InvestmentInventories and Inventory InvestmentPrices, Costs, and ProfitsMoney and CreditSelected Indicators by TimingComposite I ndexes

747677787981

83

03D4D5D6

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONSC1 I Aggregate Series 84C2 I Diffusion Indexes 84

OTHER KEY INDICATORSForeign Trade 86Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 87Federal Government Activities 89Price Movements 90Wages and Productivity 92Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 94

ANALYTICAL MEASURESActual and Potential GNP 95Analytical Ratios 96Diffusion I ndexes 97Selected Diffusion Index Components 99

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSF1 I Consumer Prices 103F2 I Industrial Production 103F3 I Stock Prices 104

PART III. APPENDIXES

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1975issue)QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September 1975issue)

B. Current Adjustment FactorsC. Historical Data for Selected SeriesD. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1973. . .F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See July 1976issue)G. Experimental Data and AnalysesAlphabetical IndexSeries Finding GuideTitles and Sources of Series

105106

113

114121125


Readers are invited to submit comments andSuggestions concerning this publication.Address them to Feliks Tamm, StatisticalIndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURESAND CHANGESFOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. Revised industrial production statistics are included inthis issue for the period 1954 through 1972 for series 17, 47, 62,and 853, and for 1954 through June 1975 for series D47. Revised datafor the respective subsequent periods were shown in the Julyissue. (See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 on pageiii of the July BCD.) Revised data for the period prior to 1954will be included when they become available.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtainedfrom the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Divisionof Research and Statistics, Business Conditions Section.

2. The series on New capital appropriations (series 11) andBacklog of capital appropriations (series 97) have been revised forthe period beginning 1975 to reflect a new seasonal adjustment bythe source agency.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtainedfrom The Conference Board, Business Conditions Analysis Division,845 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022.

3* The series on Net change in mortgage debt held by finan-cial institutions and life insurance companies (series 33) has beenrevised for the period 1975 to date to reflect the annual updatingof statistics on mortgage debt held by insurance companies.

Further information concerning this revision may be obtainedfrom the American Council of Life Insurance, 277 Park Avenue,New York, New York 10017.

(Continued on page iv.)The October issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled forrelease on November 2.

A limited number ofchanges are made fromtime to time to in-corporate recent find-ings of economicresearch, newly avail-able time series, andrevisions made bysource agencies inconcept, composition,comparability, coverage,seasonal adjustmentmethods, benchmarkdata, etc. Changes mayresult in revisions ofdata, additions ordeletions of series,changes in placement ofseries in relation toother series, changesin composition ofindexes, etc.

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4* The series on Money balance (series X108) and Personal income lesstransfer payments (series X234) are now shown throughout the report in 1972dollars. These data formerly were shown in 1967 dollars.

Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained fromthe U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, NationalIncome and Wealth Division and Statistical Indicators Division.

5. Appendix: C contains historical data for series 66, 113, 246-250,250A, 252, 253, 260, 262, 262A, 263, 264, 266, 266A, 267, 270, 271, 273,274, 275, 280, 28QA, 282, 282A, 284, 284A, 286, 286A, 288, 288A, 290, 292,294, 296, and 298.

6, Appendix: G contains (l) Recovery comparisons for series 19, 29. 41,47, 10D, and X213; and (2) Charts and current data for new components ofthe leading, coincident, and lagging composite indexes.

IV


METHOD OF PRESENTATION

THIS REPORT is organized into six majorsubject sections, as follows:

A. National Income and ProductB. Cyclical IndicatorsC. Anticipations and IntentionsD. Other Key IndicatorsE. Analytical MeasuresF. International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described brieflyin this introduction. Data for each of theabove sections are shown both in Part I(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the re-port. Most charts begin with 1953 (exceptin section C where they begin with 1957);the tables contain data for only the lastfew years. Except for section F, the chartscontain shading which indicates periods ofrecession in general business activity.

In addition to the charts and tables de-scribed above, each issue contains a sum-mary table which shows the current be-havior of many of the series, and severalappendixes which present historical data,series descriptions, seasonal adjustmentfactors, and measures of variability. Anindex appears at the back of each issue.It should be noted that the series numbersused are for identification purposes onlyand do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal AdjustmentsAdjustments for average seasonal fluctua-tions are often necessary to bring out theunderlying trends of time series. Such ad-justments allow for the effects of repetitiveintrayear variations resulting primarilyfrom normal differences in weather condi-tions and from various institutional ar-rangements. Variations attributable toholidays are usually accounted for by theseasonal adjustment process? however, aseparate holiday adjustment is occasion-ally required for holidays with variabledates, such as Easter. An additional ad-justment is sometimes necessary forseries which contain considerable varia-tion due to the number of working ortrading days in each month. As used inthis report, the term "seasonal adjustment"includes trading-day and holiday adjust-ments where they have been made.Most of the series in this report are pre-sented in seasonally adjusted form and,in most cases, these are the official figuresreleased by the source agencies. However,for the special purposes of this report, anumber of series not ordinarily publishedin seasonally adjusted form are shownhere on a seasonally adjusted basis.MOD Moving Averages

Month-to-month changes in a series areoften dominated by erratic movements.MCD (months for cyclical dominance) isan estimate of the appropriate span overwhich to observe cyclical movements in amonthly series. (See appendix A.) It is thesmallest span of months for which theaverage change in the cyclical factor isgreater than that in the irregular factor.The more erratic a series is, the larger theMCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the

smoothest series and 6 for the mosterratic. MCD moving averages (that is,moving averages of the period equal toMCD) tend to have about the same degreeof smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-termmoving average of a series with an MCDof 5 will show its cyclical movementsabout as clearly as the seasonally ad-justed data for a series with an MCD of 1.The charts for sections B and D includecentered MCD moving averages for allseries with an MCD greater than 4. Theseasonally adjusted data are also plottedto indicate their variation about the mov-ing averages and to provide observationsfor the most recent months.

Reference Turning DatesThe historical business cycle turning datesused in this report are those designatedby the National Bureau of Economic Re-search, Inc. (NBER). They mark the ap-proximate dates when, according to theNBER, aggregate economic activityreached its cyclical high or low levels. Asa matter of general practice, neither newreference turning dates nor the shadingfor recessions will be entered on'the chartsuntil after both the new reference peakand the new reference trough boundingthe shaded area have been designated.This policy is followed because of theconceptual and empirical difficulties ofdesignating a current recession and thepractical difficulties of terminating theshading of a current recession withoutincluding part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

NATIONALINCOME ANDPRODUCT

The national income and product accounts,compiled by the Bureau of Economic Anal-ysis (BEA), summarize both receiptsand final expenditures for the personal,business, foreign, and government sectorsof the economy and provide useful meas-ures of total economic activity. The totalof the final expenditures (including addi-tions to business inventories), whichequals the total of the receipts (mainlyincomes), is known as gross nationalproduct (GNP). GNP is defined as thetotal market value of the final output ofgoods and services produced by the Na-tion's economy. It is the most compre-hensive single measure of aggregate eco-nomic output.Gross national product consists of fourmajor components: (1) Personal consump-tion expenditures, (2) gross private domes-tic investment, (3) net exports of goodsand services, and (4) government pur-chases of goods and services.Personal consumption expenditures is themarket value of goods (durable and non-durable) and services purchased by indi-viduals and nonprofit institutions and thevalue of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

cial services received by them as incomein kind. The total purchase cost is covered,including sales taxes. Home purchases areexcluded, but the estimated rental valueof owner-occupied homes is included.Gross private domestic investment com-bi nes gross fixed i nvestment and netchanges in business inventories. Fixed in-vestment consists of producers' durableequipment and private (as opposed togovernment) structures, including owner-occupied residential units. The estimatesare gross in the sense that there is nodeduction for capital consumption. Theinventory component measures,the changein the physical volume of inventoriesvalued at current replacement cost.Net exports of goods and services meas-ures the excess of exports over imports.Exports include receipts from domesticoutput sold abroad, transportation, travel,other services, fees and royalties and in-come on investments in foreign areas.Imports include purchases of foreigngoods, payments for transportation, traveland other services, military expendituresas well as payments of income on foreigninvestments in the United States. Moredetail on U.S. balance of payments isprovided in section D.Government purchases of goods and serv-ices includes general government expendi-tures for compensation of employees, netpurchases from business and from abroad,payments to private nonprofit institutionsfor research and development, and thegross fixed investment of government en-terprises. Not included are current outlaysof government enterprises, acquisitions 6fland, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,and interest payments to domestic credi-tors.

A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,covering durable and nondurable goodsand both final sales and changes in busi-ness inventories, is also included in sec-tion A. Other major aggregates taken fromthe national income and product accountsare described below.National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goodsand services and accruing to the labor andproperty employed in production. The com-ponents of national income are compen-sation of employees, proprietors' income,rental income of persons, corporate profitsand the inventory valuation adjustment,and net interest.

Personal income measures the current in-come of individuals, owners of unincor-porated businesses, nonprofit institutions,private trust funds, and private health andwelfare funds. It consists of wage and sal-ary disbursements, other labor income,proprietors' income, rental income of per-sons, dividends, personal interest income,and transfer payments to persons, lesspersonal contributions for social insur-ance.

Disposable personal income is the personalincome available for spending or saving.It consists of personal income less per-sonal taxes and other nontax paymentsto general government.

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Gross saving represents the differencebetween income and spending during anaccounting period. It is the total of person-al saving, undistributed corporate profits,corporate inventory valuation adjustment,the excess of wage accruals over disburse-ments (usually negligible), governmentsurplus or deficit, and capital consump-tion allowances.Most of the series in this section are ona current-dollar basis, but some are shownon a constant (1972) dollar basis so thatthe effects of price changes are elimi-nated. The implicit price deflator (com-puted by dividing the current-dollar databy the constant-dollar data) for total GNPis also shown.

i SECTION B

CYCLICALINDICATORS

The business cycle is generally describedas consisting of alternating periods of ex-pansion and contraction in aggregate eco-nomic activity; that is, the complex of ac-tivities represented by such concepts astotal production, employment, income,consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.Although a recurrent pattern has beencharacteristic of American economic his-tory, many economists do not consider itinevitable.One of the techniques developed in busi-ness cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic con-ditions and prospects. This is the cyclicalindicators concept, which singles out cer-tain economic time series as being lead-ers, coinciders, or laggers in relation tomovements in aggregate economic activ-ity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintaineda list of such indicators and has peri-odically subjected the list to extensive re-view. Their most recent (1966) list of 73cyclical indicators is the basis for thissection of BCD. These indicators wereselected primarily for their cyclical be-havior, but they have also proven usefulin forecasting, measuring, and interpret-ing other short-term fluctuations in aggre-gate economic activity.

The NBER employs a dual classificationscheme which groups the indicators bycyclical timing and by economic process,and this report uses the same classifica-tion groupings. The diagram below sum-marizes the cross-classification systemused in this section. The 79 cyclical indi-cators are presented with economic proc-ess as the principal basis of classificationand cyclical timing as the secondary basis.The major processes are divided into minorprocesses which exhibit rather distinct dif-ferences in cyclical timing. The timingclassification takes into account a series'historical record of timing at businesscycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicat-ors are those which usually reach peaks ortroughs before the corresponding turns inaggregate economic activity; roughly co-incident indicators are direct measures ofaggregate economic activity or move rough-ly together with it; lagging indicatorsusually reach their turning points after theturns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list*'of indicators. This more selective and sub-stantially unduplicated group of principalindicators is drawn from the full list andprovides a convenient summary of thecurrent situation. The short list consistsof 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coin-cident, and six lagging. Only five of theseare quarterly series; the rest are monthly.The short list is classified only by timingand is shown separately in chart B8.

Included in this section are a number ofcomposite indexes which provide simplesummary measures of the average behaviorof selected groups of indicators. Each com-ponent of an index is weighted accordingto its value in forecasting or identifyingshort-term movements in aggregate eco-nomic activity. The components are stand-ardized so that each has, aside from itsweight, an equal opportunity to influencethe index. Each index is standardized sothat its average month-to-month percentchange is 1 (without regard to sign).The composite indexes presented in thisreport are based on groups of indicatorsselected by timing. Thus, there is an indexof leading indicators, another of coincidentindicators, and a third of lagging indicat-ors. In addition, there are five indexesbased on leading indicators which havebeen grouped by economic process. Theseindexes indicate the underlying cyclicaltrends of each group of indicators and therelative magnitude of their short-termchanges. The index of 12 leading indicat-ors has been "reverse trend adjusted" sothat its long-run trend parallels that ofthe coincident index. This facilitates com-parisons among the leading, coincident,

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators byEconomic Process and Cyclical Timing

LEADING INDICATORS(40 series)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENTINDICATORS(26 series)

LAGGING INDICATORS(13 series)

|. EMPLOYMENTANDUNEMPLOYMENT(13 series)

Marginal employmentadjustments(5 series)

Job vacancies(1 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(3 series)

Comprehensiveunemployment(3 series)

Long-durationunemployment(1 series)

||. PRODUCTION,INCOME.CONSUMPTION,AND TRADE(9 series)

Comprehensiveproduction(3 series)

Comprehensive income(2 series)

Comprehensiveconsumptionand trade (4 series)

HI, FIXED CAPITALINVESTMENT(14 series)

Formation of businessenterprises(2 series)

New Investment1 commitments(8 series)

Backlog of investmentcommitments(2 series)

Investmentexpenditures(2 series)

|V. INVENTORIESANDINVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

Inventory investmentand purchasing(7 series)

Inventories(2 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS.AND PROFITS(H series)

Sensitive commodityprtee* (1 series)

Stock prices(1 serte*)

Profits and profitmargins (5 series)

Cash flow* (2 **rie*}

Comprehensivewholesaleprices(2 serf em)

Unit labor costs(3 series)

V(. MONEYAND CREDIT(20 series)

Flows of money*nd credit(7 aeries}

Credit difficulties(2 series)

Sank reserves(1 series)

Interest rates(5 series*

Outstanding debt(2 series)

Interest rates(3 series)


and lagging indexes and tends to shortenthe leads of the leading index at businesscycle peaks while lengthening them attroughs; it also reduces the variability ofthe leads and lags.

SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONSANDINTENTIONS

Most businessmen and many individualconsumers have some type of plans as totheir major economic activities in the nearfuture. Information on these plans is re-garded as a valuable aid to economic fore-casting either directly or as an indicationof the state of confidence concerning theeconomic outlook. In recent years, muchprogress has been made in compiling suchinformation, and a number of surveys byvarious organizations and governmentagencies ascertain anticipations and inten-tions of businessmen and consumers. Theresults of some of these surveys, expressedas time series, are presented in this sec-tion of the-report.The business analyst who uses theseseries should be aware of their limitations.These data reflect only the respondents'anticipations (what they expect others todo) or intentions (what they plan to do),not firm commitments. Among both busi-nessmen and consumers, some responsesmay not be very reliable; that is, theplans may be conjectural or the respond-ent may make little effort to reply accu-rately to the survey questions. Also, manyplans are subject to modification or evencomplete abandonment due to unfore-seen and uncontrollable developments. Insome cases, the anticipations {or inten-tions) may have a systematic bias; forexample, the anticipations (or intentions)data may tend to be lower than the subse-quent actual data under certain economicconditions and higher under other condi-tions. Sometimes they merely project whathas already occurred and hence appear tolag behind actual changes. Actual data areincluded in this section to indicate theirhistorical relationship to the anticipationsand intentions. Some of the series are dif-fusion indexes, a concept explained in thedescription for section E.

SECTION D

OTHER KEYINDICATORS

Many economic series are available which,although not included in the three mainsections of the report, are neverthelessimportant for an overall view of the econ-omy. This section presents a number ofsuch series, though by no means a com-

prehensive selection. In general, theseseries reflect processes which are notdirect measures of economic activity butwhich do have a significant bearing onbusiness conditions.The foreign trade and payments seriesinclude data on imports and exports andtheir balance, export orders, and the bal-ance of payments. Many of the compo-nents of the balance-of-payments accountsare shown. Some are charted in a mannerwhich emphasizes the balance betweenreceipts and expenditures for each com-ponent; for example, comparisons of ex-ports of goods and services with importsof goods and services, and income onU.S. investments abroad with payments onforeign investments in the United States.In addition, balances are shown for U.S.Government grants and capital transac-tions and for capital transactions of theprivate sector (banks and U.S. residentsother than banks). Finally, cumulativechanges are shown for other components;for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to allforeigners and U.S. official reserve assets.The Federal Government activities seriesinclude Federal receipts and expenditures,and their balance, and selected defenseactivities. The receipts and expendituresdata are from the national income andproduct accounts. The defense series areonly a few of the many available. For amore comprehensive picture of defense ac-tivities, see Defense Indicators, a month-ly Bureau of Economic Analysis publica-tion.Three other groups of series are includedin this section. The price movementsseries consist of consumer and wholesaleprice indexes and their major components.The series on wages and productivity in-clude measures of hourly earnings andoutput per man-hour and also rates ofchange for most of these measures. Thefinal group of series measures the civilianlabor force and its major components, in-cluding unemployment rates for selectedsegments of the labor force.

SECTION E

ANALYTICALMEASURES

This section begins by comparing grossnational product in constant dollars witha measure of potential GNP. In effect,these two series reflect the relationshipbetween the economy's productive capac-ity and total demand, the excess of poten-tial over actual GNP indicating the degreeto which potentially productive resourcesare not fully utilized. The measure of po-tential GNP, developed by the Council ofEconomic Advisers in the early 1960's,takes into account increases in both avail-able man-hours and output per man-hour.The NBER list of cyclical indicators in-cludes some series which measure the rela-tionship between different economic varia-

bles (for example, the series on labor costper unit of output). There are, however,additional analytical ratios which haveproven useful in evaluating business con-ditions and prospects. A number of suchratios are shown in the second part ofthis section.

The third part presents a selection ofdiffusion indexes. Many series in this re-port are Aggregates compiled from a num-ber of components. A diffusion index is asummary measure expressing, for a par-ticular aggregate, the percentage of com-ponents rising over a given timespan (halfof the unchanged components are consid-ered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusionindexes tend to lead those of the corre-sponding aggregates. Since diffusion in-dexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or9-month span) indexes are used to indi-cate underlying trends and short-term (1-month span) indexes are used to showrecent developments. Most of the indexesare constructed from components of seriesshown in section B, and these indexeshave the same identification numbers asthe corresponding aggregates. The diffu-sion indexes are classified by the cyclicaltiming of the aggregates to which theyrelate. Recent data, and directions ofchange for many of the components areshown in table E4.

The final part (E5) presents, in chartform, rates of change for a selectedgroup of economic series. Percent changesare shown for 1- and 3-month spans orfor 1-quarter spans.

SECTION F

INTERNATIONALCOMPARISONS

Because this report is designed as an aidto the analysis of U.S. business conditions,all previous sections are based on datawhich relate directly to that purpose. Butmany business analysts examine economicdevelopments in other important countrieswith a view to their impact on the UnitedStates. This section is provided to facili-tate a quick review of basic economic con-ditions in six of the nations with whichwe have important trade relationships.

Data on consumer prices, industrial pro-duction, and stock prices are shown forCanada, the United Kingdom, France, WestGermany, Japan, and Italy and are com-pared with the corresponding U.S. series.Also included is an industrial productionindex for the European countries in theOrganization for Economic Cooperationand Development. The industrial produc-tion series provide a comprehensive meas-ure of output and the consumer priceindexes measure an important sector ofprices, while stock prices tend to'be im-portant as leading indicators. In this sec-tion, the U.S. business cycle shading hasbeen omitted from the charts.

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HOW TO READ CHARTS

Peak (P) of cycle indicates endof expansion and beginning ofRecession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.

Series numbers are for identifi-cation only and do not reflectseries relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.(Data may be actual monthlyfigures or MCD moving aver-ages,*)

Broken line indicates actualmonthly data for series where anMCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break incontinuity (data not available,changes in series definitions, ex-treme values, etc.).

Solid line with plotting points in-dicates quarterly data,

Basic Data

Solid line indicates monthly dataover 6- or 9-month spans.

Broken line indicates monthlydata over 1-month spans.

Solid line with plotting points in-dicates quarterly data over vari-ous spans.

*Many of the more irregularseries are shown in terms of theirMCD moving averages as well astheir actual monthly data. In suchcases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term mov-ing averages are plotted 1%, 2,or 2y2 months, respectively, be-hind the actual data. See appen-dix A for a description of MCDmoving averages.

/

Trough (T) of cycle indicates endof recession and beginning ofExpansion as designated byNBER.

Arabic number indicates latest20 -ix/month for which data are plotted.

("6" - June)

Roman number indicates latestquarter for which data are

/ plotted. ("IV" fourth quarter)

,n Doited line indicates anticipated70 -yf data.

Various scales are used to high-light the patterns of the individualseries. "Scale A" is an arithmeticscale, "scale L-l" is a logarith-mic scale with 1 cycle in a givendistance, "scale L-2" is a log-arithmic scale with 2 cycles inthat distance, etc. The scafesshould be carefully noted becausethey show whether the plottedlines for various series are di-rectly comparable.

Scale shows percent of compo-nents rising.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data are usedin computing the indexes. ("6" =June)Roman number indicates latestquarter for which data are usedin computing the indexes. ("I" =first quarter)Broken line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data over vari-ous spans.

NOTE: Some of the charts ofanticipations and intentions data(section C) and balance of pay-ments data (section D) do notconform to the above method ofpresentation. Deviations are ade-quately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES

1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in theback of the report where series are arranged alphabetically accordingto subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or

2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed innumerical order according to series numbers within each of theDigest's six sections.


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

Series title :

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A1. Gross National Product

200. GNP in current dollars205. GNPin 1972dollars . . . .210, Implicit price deflator?15, Per capita GNP in current dollars?17 Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars

A2. National and Personal Income

220. National income, current dollars222 Personal income current dollars224. Disposable personal income current dollars225. Disposable personal income 1972 dollars226. Per capita disposable personal income,

current dollars227 Per capita disposable pers income 1972dol

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures

230 Total current dollars231. Total, 1972 dollars232. Durable goods, current dollars233. Durable goods, exc. autos current dollars234. Automobiles, current dollars236. Nondurable goods, current dollars237. Services, current dollars . . .

A4, Gross Private Domestic Investment

240. Gross private domestic investment total241. Fixed investment, total nonresidential242 Nonresidential structures243 Nonresidential producers' durable equipment244. Fixed investment, residential245. Change in business inventories, total2

A5.-:Foreign Trade

250 Net exports of goods and services2252. Exports . .253. Imports

A6. Government Purchases of Goodsand Services

260. Total . . . . .262. Federal264. National defense ...266. State and local

A7. Final Sales and Inventories

270. Final sales, durable goods271. Change in business inventories, dur. goods2 ...274. Final sales, nondurable goods275 Change in bus inventories nondur goods2

A8. National Income Components

280. Compensation of employees282. Proprietors' income284 Rental income of persons286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. .288. Net interest

A9. Saving

290. Gross saving, total292 Personal saving294. Undistributed corporate profits plus

inventory valuation adjustment296 Capital consumption allowances298 Government surplus or deficit total2

A10. Real GNP (1972 dollars)273. Final sales, 1972 dollars246 Change in bus. inventories 1972 dollars2247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1972 dollars .248. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars... ,.|.249. Gross auto product, 1972dollars263. Federal Government purchases of goods

and services, 1972 dollars267. State and local government purchases of

goods and services, 1972 dollars

El. Actual and Potential GNP

207. GNP gap {potential less actual), 1972 dol.2 ....

Unitof

measure

Ann. rate, bil.dol. .do

1972=100Ann. rate, dol. . . .

do

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .dodo

. . do . . .

Ann. rate, dol. . . .do

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .do

..dododo

. . . . dodo

Ann.rate, bil.dol.dodododo

.. . d o

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .dodo

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .. do

.do. . .do


. . .dodo

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .dodododo

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .do "..

dododo

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .dododo ,do

do

. .do .

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .

Basic data1

Average

1973

1306.61235.0105.86,2085,868

1064.61052.4

901.7854.7

4,2854,062

809.9767.7123.7

80.842.9

333.8352.3

220.0136.0

49.087.066.117.9

7,1101.6

94.4

269.5102.2

73.5167.3

229.610.9

351.37.0

799.292.421.699.152.3

216.870.3

22.6117.7

6.3

1218.516.5

131.059.750.6

96.6

155.9

30.4

1974

1413.21214.0116.46,6685,728

1135.71153.3

982.9840.8

4,6393,968

887.5759.1121.6

85.536.1

376.2389.6

215.0149.2

54.195.155.110.7

7.5144.4136.9

303.3111.6

77.3191.6

240.27.1

388.93.6

875*886.921.084.867.1

205.372.2

1.7137.7-4.2

1205.58.5

128.545.040.0

95.3

161.1

101.9

1975

1516.31191.7

127.27,1005,580

1207.61249.71080.9

855.5

5,0624,007

973.2770.3131.7

91.440.3

409.1432.4

183.7147.1

52.095.151.2

-14.6

20.5148.1127.6

339.0124.4

84.3214.5

266.5-12.1429.8-2.6

928.890.222.491.674.6

191.284.0

10.3161.4-64.4

1203.7-12.0111.4

38.439.7

95.7

165.2

176.9

IstQ1975

1446.21161.1

124.66,7935,454

1149.71203.11023.8

827.9

4,8093,889

933.2754.6122.186.136.0

394.4416.7

172.4148.0

53.194.946.6

-22.2

15.0147.5132.5

325.6120.3

82.0205.3

249.5-15.4415.3-6.8

904.081.121.969.073.7

172.167.2

-2.9152.9-45.0

1181.6-20.5114.4

35.432.7

94.8

162.2

187.4

2dQ1975

1482.31177.1

125.96,9505,519

1182.71230.31088.2

869.7

5,1024,078

960.3767.5127.0

89.937.1

405.8427.4

164.4145.851.294.648.6

-30.0

24.4142.9118.5

333.2122.4

83.4210.9

263.8-15.3427.2-14.7

912.986.822.386.674.0

180.2104.5

9.9158.7-92.9

1198.2-21.2110.6

36.838.6

95.3

163.8

184.7

3dQ1975

1548.71209.3128.17,2445,656

1233.41265.51091.5

857.1

5,1054,009

987.3775.3136.0

93.242.8

414.6436.7

196.7146.1

51.894.352.6-2.0

21.4148.2126.8

343.2124.6

84.6218.6

272.0-7.0

433.45.0

935.295.522.4

105.374.9

204.680.5

17.9164.4-58.1

1210.2-1.0

110.13*. 645.0

95.6

166.9

165.9

4th Q1975

1588.21219.2130.37,4135,691

1264.61299.71119.9

867.5

5,2274,049

1012.0783.9141.8

96.745.1

421.6448.6

201.4148.7

52.196.657.0-4.3

21.0153.7132.7

353.8130.4

87.1223.4

280.6-10.6443.3

6.3

963.197.222.9

105.675.8

208.083.7

16.2169.5-61.5

1224.7-S.5

lip. 541.912.6

97.2

168.0

169.6

1stQ1976

1636.21246.3131.37,6245,808

1304.71331.31147.6

880.4

5,3474,103

1043.6800.7151.4

98.852.6

429.1463.2

229.6153.4

53.2100.2

61.314.8

8.4154.1145.7

354.7129.2

86.2225.5

286.3-3.6

441.118.5

994.493.223.3

115.178.6

222.179.5

20.6173.6-51.6

1235.910.4

112.644.150.4

95.4

166.6

155.3

2dQ1976

1675.21260.0

133.07,7945,862

1337.41362.01172.5

890.5

5,4554,143

1064.7808.6155.0100.1

54.9434.8474.9

239.2157.9

54.9103.0

65.316.0

9.3160.3151.0

362.0131.2

86.9230.9

295.85.4

446.610.6

1017.2100.3

23.1116.4

80.3

234.282.9

18.5177.7-44.9

1248.811.1

114.945.751.8

96.0

167.7

154.6

Percent change

3d Qto

4th Q1975

2.60.81.72.30.6

2.52.72.61.2

2.41.0

2.51.14.33.85.41.72.7

2.41.80.62.48.4

-2.3

-0.43.74.7

3.14.73.02.2

3.2-3.6

2.31.3

3.01.82.20.31.2

1.74.0

-9.53.1

-3.4

1.2-4.5

0.45.8

-5.3

1.7

0.7

3.7

4th Qto

1stQ1976

3.02.20.82.82.1

3.22.42.51.5

2.31.3

3.12.16.82.2

16.61.83.3

14.03.22.13.77.5

19.1

-12.60.39.8

0.3-0.9-1.0

0.9

2.07.0

-0.512.2

3.2-4.11.79.03.7

6.8-5.0

27.22.49.9

0.915.91.95.3

18.3

-1.9

-0.8

-14.3

IstQto

2 d Q1976

2.41.11.32.20.9

2.52.3-2.21.1

2.01.0

2.01.02.41.34.41.32,5

4.22.93.22.86.51.2

0.94.03.6

2.11.50.82.4

3.39.01.2

-7.9

2.37.6

-0.91.12.2

5.44.3

-10.22.46.7

1.00.72.03.62.8

0.6

0.7

-0.7

Serie

s nu

mbe

r I

200205210215217

220222224225

226227

230231232233234236237

240241242243244245

250252253

260262264266

270271274275

280282284286288

290292

294296298

273246247248249

263

267

207


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued

Series title

B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS87. Composite Indexes

12 loading indicators original trend312 loading indicators rovorso trend rdj ^4 eoincidBnt indicators

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS013 Marginal employment ud just men ts014. Capital in vest mo nt commitments01 & Inventory investment and purchasing81 B. Profitability.817 Sensitive financial flows

B1. Employment and Unemployment

LEADING INDICATORSMarginal Employment Adjustments;

*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg21 , Average weekly overtime hours,

produfition workers, manufacturing22, Accession rato, manufacturing2

*8, Average weekly initial claims, Stateunemployment insurance (inverted4)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4)2

RQUGHL Y COINCIDENT tNDICA TORSJob Vacancies:

46 Help-wanted advertising

Comprehensive Employment:48. Employee hours in nonagricultural

establishments

*41, Krnployees on nonagricultural payrolls42. Persons engaged in nonaqri. activities

Comprehensive U no mploy merit:*43, Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)2

45. Average weekly insured unemploymentrate (inverted4)2

40. Unemployment rule, married males(inverted4)2

LAGGING INDICATORSLonf) Duration Unemployment:*44. Unemployment rate, IB weeks and

over (inverted4)3

82. Production, Income, Consumption,and Trade

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORSComprehensive Production:*?QG GNP in current doll'irs*?QS GIMP in 19 72 dollars*47. Industrial production

Comprehensive In co me:*WL Personal income

S3. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, construction . .

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:*b6. Manufacturing and trade sales ,

67 Final sales*B4. Sales of retail stores

69. Sales of retail stores, deflated

B3. Fixed Capital Investment

LEADING INDICATORSFormation of Business Enterprises:*12. Index of not business formation

13. New business incorporations

New Investment Commitments:*S. Now orders, durable goods industries

B. Construction contracts, total value*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment . . .

11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .24. Now orders, cap, goods indus., nondefonse . . .9. Construction contracts, commercial

and industrial buildings20. New private housing units started, total

*29. New building permits, private housing

ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORSBacklog of Investment Commitments:

86. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries597. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfn.s

Unitof

measure

1907^100dododo

dodo

. . dododo

Hours

doPer 100 employ. . .

ThousandsPer 100 employ. . .

1967^100

Ann. rate, billionhours

Thousandsdo .

Percent

do

. . . . . .do

do

Ann. rate, bil.dol. .do

1967=100

Ann.rate, hil.dol. .do

Bil.dolAnn.rate, bil.dol. .Mil.dol

do

19G7-1QQNumber

Bil dol1967"! DOBil.dol

dodo

Mil. si. feetfloor space

Ann. rate, thous ..1967-100

Bil.dol., COP ....do

Basic data1

Average

1974

110.1154.7169.8190.7

92.8114.9133.1125.0110.6

4 0 . 0

3.24.2

3511.5

110

150.9078,4138 2 , 4 4 3

5.6

3.5

2.7

1.0

1413.21214.0

129.3

1153.3268.3

164.121402.544,81537 ,342

112.426 ,584

44 .59174

13.5414.2211.53

72.901,338

92.2

133.4449.79

1976

98.6145.3152.6180.8

86.2110.1113.1124.3

95.9

39.4

2.63.7

4702.1

80

146.7576,98581,403

8.5

5.9

5.1

2.7

1516.31191.7

117.8

1249.7269.3

168.041531.04 8 , 7 0 237 ,466

108.927,472

40.07166

12.2311.3610.27

48.801,160

81.0

115.494 6 . 4 5

4th Q1976

103.4155.2158.3173.7

90.4114.0115.6131.1105.1

40 .0

2.93.7

3971.5

86

148.617 7 , 6 4 281,926

8.5

5.3

5.1

3.1

1588.21219.2

123.4

1299.7279.5

175.061592.550,61038 ,344

113.529 ,696

42.38150

11.9112.8710.51

48.931,365

95.6

115.4946.45

IstQ1976

105.9160.8164.7171.6

94 .4116.7120.6136.5

98,2

40.3

3.14.3

3491.2

91

149.9878,39283,171

7.6

4.2

4.1

2.7

1636.21246.3

127.0

1331.4289.4

182.281621.452,51239,341

115.129,829

45.35179

13.3011.3410.68

4 4 . 7 41,400100.5

113.7246.05

2dQ1876

108.1166.2169.7172.4

92.2118.1126.0138.1

99.7

39.9

2.93.9

3881.3

94

150.1278 ,94384,185

7.4

4.3

4.1

2.2

1675.21260.0

129.3

1361.9296.7

187.471659.253,51639,681

116.130,038

49.09194

13.7112.8311.68

55.501,433

97.4

116.4646.71

June1976

109.1168.4170.5173.1

91.7119.9129.1138.5102.0

4 0 . 2

3.13.8

4051.3

96

150.2678,9438 4 , 2 0 6

7.5

4.4

4.4

2.3

130.0

1370,4297.2

189.01

53,98339,920

118.331,600

49.93187

14.86

11.84

57.781,510

99.1

116.46

July1976

109.6169.9171.4174.2

92.2119.8127.0140.0104.6

40.2

3.24.0

3741.1

98

151.0679,19284,566

7.8

4.6

4 . S

2.4

130.7

1383.4300.2

188.66

53 ,79739,718

117.530,114

48.72184

15.02

13.24

b6.311,391104.7

117.41

Au'j.1976

108. 0168.2172.3173.9

NA118.6124.6139.5

NA

39.9

3.03.8

4111.5

9$

151.3179,43184,557

7.9

4.8

4.2

2.5

131.4

1389.5300.2

NA

55 ,0254 0 , 4 2 7

116.3NA

47.66162

13.04

11.69

54.531,542111.7

117.14

Percent cnonjjsJune

toJuly *1976

0.50.90.50.6

0.5-0.1-1.61.12.5

0.0

0.10.2

7.70.2

2.1

0.50.30.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.5

0.91.0

-0.2

-0.3-0.5

-0.7-4.7

-2.4-1.61.1

11. 8

-2.5-7.9

5.7

0.8

Julyto

Aug.1976

-1.5-1.0

0.5-0.2

NA-1.0-1.9-0.4

NA

-0.7

-0.2-0.2

-9.9-0.4

-2.0

0.20.30.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

-0.1

0.5

0.40.0

NA

2.31.8

-1.0NA

-2.2-12.0-13.2

-11.7

-3.210.96.7

-0.2

4th Qto

IstQ1078

2.43.64.0

-1.2

4.42.44.34.1

-6.6

0.8

0.20.6

12.10.3

5.8

0.91.01.5

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.4

3.02.22.9

2.43.5

4.11.83.82.6

1.40.4

7.019.311.7

-11.91.6

-8.62.65.1

-1.5-0.9

IstQto

2dQ1976

2.13.43.00.5

-2.31.24.51.21.5

-1.0

-0.2-0.4

-11.2-0,1

3.3

0.10.71.2

0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.5

2.41.11.8

2.32.5

2.82.31.90.9

0.90.7

8.28.43.1

13.19.4

24.02.4

-3.1

2.41.4

Serie

s num

ber

813814815816817

1

21

f3

4

41414 2

43

4 C

4C

44

20C20t

4"

5^s:

5C5"34SS

ISi:

cf

U1124

i2C25

99'


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal IndicatorsContinued

Series title

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORSInvestment Expenditures:*6T. Business expend., new plant and equip

69. Machinery and equipment sales and businessconstruction expenditures

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment

LEADING INDICATORSInventory Investment and Purchasing:245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2*31 Change mfg and trade inven book value2

37. Purchased materials, percent reportinghigher inventories2

20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,supplies, book value2

26. Buying policy, production materials,commitments 60 days or longer2

32. Vendor performance, percent reportingslower deliveries2

25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus.2 . . .

LAGGING INDICATORSInventories:71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5

65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 . .

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits

LEADING INDICATORSSensitive Commodity Prices:*23 Industrial materials prices

Stock Prices:*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Profits and Profit Margins:*16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dol. . ..

18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1972 dollars . . .22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to total

corporate domestic income215. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . .

*17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars35, Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars

ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORSComprehensive Wholesale Prices:

55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities . .55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 . .

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods

LAGGING INDICATORSUnit Labor Costs:

63 Unit labor cost private business sector68. Labor cost per unit of gross product

nonfinancial corporations . . .*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.

B6. Money and Credit

LEADING INDICATORSFlows of Money and Credit:

85. Change in money supply (Ml }21 02. Change in money supply plus time deposits

at commercial banks (M2)2103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at

banks and nonbank institutions (M3)233 Change in mortgage debt2

112 Chance in business loans2*1 1 3 Change in consumer installment debt2

110 Total private borrowing

Credit Difficulties:14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4) . .39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)2 s .

ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORSBank Reserves:

93. Free reserves (inverted4)2 Interest Rates:

1 19 Federal funds rate2 @1 14 Treasury bill rate21 1 6 Corporate bond yields2115 Treasury bond yields2^117. Municipal bond yields2 fiD

Unitof

measure


do

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .do .

Percent


Percent

doBil.dol

Bil.dol., EOF . . . .do

1967=100

1941-43=10


PercentCents1967=100Ann.rate, bil.dol. .

do

1967=100Percent1967=100

. . do

Dollars1967=100

Ann. rate, percent . .

. . d o

doAnn.rate, bil.dol. .

dododo

Mil dolPercent, EOP . . . .

Mil dol .

Percentdodo

. do .do

Basic data1

Average

1974

112.40

152.69

10.74 6 . 6

55

13.9

83

661,77

271.0546 .73

219.0

82.84

75.264.7

9.55.6

120.7126.0108.6

153.81.9

154.1

150.4

0.794127.6

4 . 5 6

6.95

6.5635.5221.97

8.60167.82

254.432.80

-1,797

10.517.879.426.98A 1 7

1975

112.78

151.40

-14.6-6.3

33

-3.7

59

30-1.49

264.7747 .32

180.4

86.16

65.350.3

8.34.6

119.7122.6

92.3

171.50.5

171.1

161.7

0.853143.0

4 .92

8.17

10.7938.82

-10.897.18

119.23

365.012 . 4 7

12

5.825.829.517.007 n;

dth n1975

111.80

152.33

-4.3-1.2

40

-0.4

61

43-0.84

264.7747.32

180.8

89.11

74 .155.6

9.15.1

123.7134.8

98.2

175.40.8

174.5

163.5

0.860141.6

1.64

6.95

9.2250.23

8.3315.98

156.78

561.712 .47

145

5.415.689.547.227 ta

I s tQ1976

114.72

154.90

14.819.5

49

5.2

66

48-0.59

269.6447.49

187.8

99.53

79.759.6

9.35.5

124.3140.9102.0

178.10.3

175.6

164.7

0.869141.4

4 . 3 3

11.40

12.5051.78

-22.7014.80

160.15

238.832.45

158

4 ,834.958.806.91G. QO

2dQ1976

118.12

159.81

16.026.3

53

2.8

70

590.92

276.2348.68

202.7

101.62

82.761.3

9.55.6

124.1144.6103.4

180.60.3

177.8

166.2

0.876143.2

6.82

9.82

11.1144.78

-13.2516.92

181.89

271.112.40

115

5.205.178.866.89K. 7fl

June1976

159.89

44.1

55

6.3

69

621.45

276.2348.68

204.4

101.77

124.2

181.30.5

178.7

143.3

-0.79

5.34

8 .0244.03

9.5615.96

373.642 . 4 0

17

5.485.448.906.92A m

July1976

161.10

18.5

52

3.5

72

600.94

277.7749.16

214.1

104.20

124.6

182.60.7

179.7

144.1

6 .73

12.51

13.1557.12

-18.5515.64

305.55NA

-29

5.315.288.766.85fi 70

Aug.1976

NA

NA

53

NA

67

64-0.28

NANA

209.6

103.29

124.5

183.60.7

179.7

144.1

5.91

9.84

12.70NA

-2.84NA

NANA

259

5.295.158.596.82K K^

Percent change

Juneto

July1976

0.8

-25.6

-3

-2.8

3

-2-0.51

0.61.0

4.7

2.4

0.3

0.70.20.6

0.6

7 . 5 2

7.17

5.1313.04

-28.11-0.32

18.2NA

46

-0.17-0.16-0.14-0.07_n nn

Julyto

Aug.1976

NA

NA

1

NA

-5

4-1.22

NANA

-2.1

-0.9

-0.1

0.50.00.0

0.0

-0.82

-2.67

-0.45NA

15.71NA

NANA

-288

-0,02-0.13-0.17-0.03_n i n

4th Qto

Is tQ1976

2.6

1.7

19.120.7

9

5.6

5

50 .25

1.80.4

3.9

11.7

7.67.2

0.20.40.54.53.9

1.5-0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0-0.1

2.69

4 . 4 5

3 .281.55

-31.03-1.18

2.1

57.50 .02

-13

-0.58-0.73-0.74-0.31-n An

IstQto

2 d Q1976

3.0

3.2

1.26.8

4

-2.4

4

111.51

2.42.5

7.9

2.1

3.82.9

0.20.1

-0.22.61.4

1.40.01.3

0.9

0.81.3

2 . 4 9

-1.58

-1.39-7.00

9 .452.1213.6

-13.50.05

43

0.370 .220.06

-0.02-n. 5n

Se3C

.1

cl

61

69

24531

37

20

26

3225

7165

23

19

1618

2215173435

555558

63

6862

85

102

10333

112113110

1439

93

119114116115T 1 7


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued

Series title

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS~Con.B6. Money and Credit-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORSOutstanding Debt:

66. Consumer installment debt5*??,. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .

Interest Rates:1 00, Average primes fate charged by banks2@. . .*67, Bank rates on short-term business loans2 @. . .110. Mortgage yields, residential3

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORSD1. Foreign Trade

BOO. Merchandise trade balance2602. Exports, excluding military aid606. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles .608. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery612 General imports

D2. U.S. Balance of Payments

260. Balance on goods and services2515, Bui. on goods, sarvices, and remittances2517. Balance on current account2619, Balance on curr. acet. and long-term capital2 .621. Net liquidity balance2522. Official reserve transactions balance3

D3, Federal Government Activities

600. Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2601 . Federal receipts, NIA . . . ,802. Federal expenditures, NIA264. National defense purchases610. Defense Department obligations, total621. Defense Department obligations, procurement648. New orders, defense products626. Military contract awards in U.S.

D4. Price Movements

21 1. Fixed wtd. price index, gross bus. product . . .781, Consumer prices, oil items781 c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .760. Wholesale prices, all commodities

OS. Wages and Productivity

740. Average hourly earnings, production workersin private nonfarm economy

74 1 . Real average hourly earnings, productionworkers in private nonfarm economy . . . . . .

869. Real spendable ovg. weekly earnings,nonagri prod or notisupv workers

745, Avg. hourly compensation, nonfarm business. .746. Real avq. hourly comp., nonfarm business770. Output per hour, private business sector868. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector . . . .

D6. Civilian Labor Force and MajorComponents

841. Total civilian labor force842. Total civilian employment843, Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 . .

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURESE2. Analytical Ratios

860. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . .851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . . .862. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,

manufacturers' durable goods industries863. Ratio, prod,, bus. equip, to consumer goods . .864. Ratio, personal savings to disposable

personal income 8@p. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to

persons unemployed . . . . .857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 @

Unitof

measure

Bil.dol., EOF . . . .Bil dol

Percentdodo

Mil. dol. . do

. . . . . . d o1987=100 . . . .Mil dol

Mil. doldododo

. . . . . . do

. . . . . . d o

Ann. rate, bil.dol. .dododo

Mil. doldo

Bil do)Mil. dol

1972-1001967=100Percent1967-100

do

do

1967 dol1987-100

dododo

Thousands.do.do

PercentHatio

do1967-100

Ratio

.doPercent

Basic data '

Average

1974

152.20125.35

10.8011.28

9.55

-1938,1663,186

2078 ,359

3,586469

-900-2,676-4,735-2,100

-11.5238.2299.7

77.37 ,7531,741

1.903 , 4 5 7

116.4147.7

1.0160.1

158.6

107.4

90.97161.8109.5109.2107.4

91,01185,936

5,076

78.91.51

3.38110.4

0.073

0.6596.2

1975

159.38125.44

7.868 . 6 59.20

9248,9363,410

2018,012

16,2693 ,6472 ,924

349784

-616

-71.2286.5357.8

84 .38,1541,742

1.773,606

127.2161.2

0.6174.9

172.6

107.1

90.53177.5110.1111.4109.4

92,6138 4 , 7 8 3

7,830

68 .71.59

3.31103.6

0.078

0.3046.0

4th Q1975

159.38123,07

7.588.299 , 4 2

9979,2953,510

2148,297

4 , 3 5 73,9243,106

-4-1,223-2,538

-69.4306.7376 .0

87.18,0971,424

1.552 ,988

130.1165.5

0.6178.6

177.8

107.5

92 .04182.1110.1113.2111.0

93,15385,241

7,912

70.71.52

3 .089 9 . 5

0.075

0.3245.4

1stQ1976

163.08120.42

6 .837.54

NA

-2888,9533,767

2189,241

1,058575-60

NANANA

-63.8316.5380.3

86.28 , 4 0 41,760

1.934 ,236

131.3167.1

0.2179.4

180.6

107.9

91.90186.2111.3115.2112.6

93,55386,402

7,151

72.11.47

2.8798.4

0.069

0.3805.5

2dQ1976

167.31114.42

6.907 . 4 48.97

-619,5634,281

2309,624

1,5741,133

702NANANA

-54.1324.6378.7

86.98,8132 ,057

2.193,656

133.0169.2

0.5182.1

183.5

108.4

91.47190.1112.3116.3114.1

94,54687,532

7,014

73.01.46

2 .839 8 . 3

U.071

0.3985.8

June1976

167.31114.90

7.20

9.05

-3779,7164 , 8 4 9

23210,094

8,6111,930

2 .523,817

170.10.5

183.1

184.5

108.5

91.31

9 4 , 6 4 387,500

7,143

1.46

2.8098.3

0.400

July1976

168.61113.35

7 .25

8.99

-82710,022

5,561257

10,849

8,2482 ,285

0.992 ,234

171.10.5

184.3

185.6

108.6

91.57

95 ,33387,907

7 , 4 2 6

1.47

2 . 8 399 .3

0.393

Aug.1976

NA113.12

7 .00

8 .93

NANANANANA

NANA

1.82NA

171.90.5

183.7

186.5

108.6

91.26

95 ,48787,981

7,506

NA

NA99.9

0.381

Percent chango

Junoto

July1976

0.8-1.3

0.05

-0.06

-4503.1

14.710.87.5

-4 .218.4

-60.7-41.5

0.60.00.7

0.6

0.1

0.3

0.70.5

-4.0

0.7

1.11.0

-1.7...

Julyto

Aug.1970

NA-0.2

-0.25

-0.06

NANANANANA

NANA

83,8MA

0.50.0

-0.3

0.5

0.0

-0.3

0 .20.1

-1.1

NA

NA0.6

-3.1

4th Qto

Is tQ197Q

2.3-2.2

-0.75-0.75

NA

-1,285-3.7

7.31.9

11.4

-3 ,299-3 ,349-3,166

NANANA

5.63.21.1

-1.03.8

23 .62 4 . 541.8

0.91.0

-0.40.4

1.6

0.4

-0.22.31.11.81.4

0.41.49.6

1.4-3.3

-6.8-1.1

-8.0

17.30.1

I s tQto

2dQ1976

2.6-5.0

0.07-0.10

NA

2276.8

13.65.54.1

516558762

NANANA

9.72.6

-0.40.84.9

16.913.5

-13.7

1.31.30.31.5

1.6

0.5

-0.52.10.91.01.3

1.11.31.9

0.9-0.7

-1.4-0.1

2.9

4.70.3

in

58I

6672

10967

118

500502506508512

250515517519521522

600601'602264616621648625

211781781750

740

741

859745746770858

841842843

850851

852853

854

860857

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except f

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

205. GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann, rate, Hl.;*L

w. jew in current dollars,.(ail. rate, bil. dot.)

210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1972=100)

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q(Hin. rate, tfious. dol.)! X

W. Per capita GNP in current dollars, U(ann. rate, ttious. dol.)

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data lor these series are shown on page 69.

ltd) SEPTEMBER 1976Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A2 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Fab.)P T

(Dee.) (Nov.)P T

220. National income, current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bit. *>l.)

22S. Disposable personal incanie, 1972dollars, Q fain, rate, fail dpi.)

\Disposable persutalcurrent dollars, Q(ain. rate, bil. M

227. Per capita disposable persona]1972 dollars, Q (an. rate, ttms. dol.)

226. Per capita dispesable personal income,current dollars, Q (am rate, tttws. ikil.)

S4 55 56 57 8 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 7S 1977Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

10 SEPTEMBEiR 1976Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart A3 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Annual rate, billion dollars

231. Total, 1972 dollars, Q

230. Total current dollars, Q

232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, 0

233. Durable goods, total excludingcurrent dollars, D

goods, total, current dollars, Q

237. Services, total, current dollars, Q

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

SEPTEMBER 1976 11Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart A4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(July) (May)P T


Chart A5 FOREIGN TRADE

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.XFeb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

252. Exports of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q




Chart A6 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(July) (May)P T


(July) (May)P T

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(Aug.)(Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T


270. Final sales, durable goods, 0

360-t320-

280-

240-

200-

160-

120-

80-

+20-

+15-271. Change in business inventories; durable goods, Q

Z74. Final sales, nondurable goods, Q

275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q


ItCII SEPTEMBER 1976 15Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart A8 NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(JuW (May)P T

(Aiig.)(Apr.) (Apr.)(Feb.)P T P T

(Dee.) (Nov.)P T

Annual rate, Mm dollars (current)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation andcapital consumption adjustments, Q

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation aid capita!consumption adjustments, Q

500-

1

400 J

110-100-90-80-70-

60-

50-30-

2Q-

20-

15-130-120-110-100-90-80-70-

60-

50-

40-

30-

20-

288. Net interest Q

10J

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data (or these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

16 SEPTEMBER 1976 KCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart A9 [ SAVING

(July) (May)P T


(Dec.) (Nov.)P T


290. Gross saving (private and government), Q

2%. capital consumption allowances with,' capital consumption adjustment, Q

294. Undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments, Q

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q




Chart A10 REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July) (May)P T


(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Anna! m, WO* Mhn (1972)

247. Fixed investMt, nwesialt 1972 tkillars, Q

80-170-

60-

50-

40-

30-*SOO-i800- !700-

600-J'180n160-

140- .

120-

100- '

80-60-i55-50-45-40- *3 5 - ;30-

25-

20-

248. Fixed investment, residential 1972 dollars, Q

V231. Personal ctmsmnptiDi expeadityres,

total, 1972 dollars, Q

Federal dovemiHt pv^ues ef gortso

248. Grass aelo product, 1972 dollars, Q

JLLL

~ET

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data tor these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.

18 SEPTEMBER 1976 ltd*Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart All SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.XFeb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GHPT Q65-

6(H

VAT

262A. Federal Government purchases of goodsand seniieftg as rmrepnt fit RHP Q 266A. State and local government purchases of goods 15-

10-

and services as percent of GNP, Q

244A. Fixed investment, residential, as percent of GNP, Q

245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q

National Income Shares

250A. Net exports of goods and servicesas percent of GHP, Q

80T

280A. Compessation of employees as percent of national income, fl75-

.32370-

65-J>2A. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation

and capita! consumption adjustmentsas percent of national income. 0 286A. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption

adjustments as percent of national income, Q

288A. Net interest as percent of national income, 0

10-

Rental innninfi nf aersmis with nanital nnnsumnlioni; i adjustment as percent of national income, Q

r \ . j...L.'i. J.J ' -.JLl! J L J - J , ' , : ' . ' . ' ' ' '1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII SEPTEMBER 1976 19Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORSEconomic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTLeading Indicators

(July) (May)P T

(Aug,)(Apr.) (Apr.)(Feb.)P T P T

(Dee.) (Nov.)P T

Marginal Employment Adjustments*1. Averap workweek, production workers,

mafKjfactaring (hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hoars, production workers, wsafacturing (hours)

2, Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

40-

39-

38-

4-

3-

2-

5-

4-

3-

200-

250-

*5. Average weekly initial claims, State mplqiwlInsurance (thousafflls-inverted scale)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)i-

3-


20 SEPTEMBER 1976 IICIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Section B

Chart Bl

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTCon.

Roughly Coincident Indicators

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

46. Help-wanted advertising (index; 1967=100)150-125-

100-

75-

50-

25-

160-

150-

140-

130-

120-1

Comprehensive Employment

48, Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate; bil. hours)

42. Persons engaged in nnnagricoltoralactivities (millions)

*41. Employees on nonagricultural

85-

80-

75-

70-

65-

60-

55-

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.

ltd) SEPTEMBER 1976 21Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTCon.

Roughly Coincident IndicatorsCon.

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.)(Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Comprehensive Unemployment

43. UNMtonMt rate, total (percrt--iiYm state) 3-4-

5-

6-

7-

8-

9-

10-

2-

3-

4-

5-

6-

7-

8-

1-

2-

3-

4-

5-

6-

7-

I

0-

1-

2-

3-

4-

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977

Current data lor ths* *rles are shown on paf 75.

22 SEPTEMBER 1976 KillDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart B2 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE


(July) (May)P T

(Aug.XApr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

*205. GNP ia 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, nil. dol.)

i current i(am. rate, til, del.)

1800-17001600-1500-1400-1300-

1200-

1100-

1000-

900-

800-

S3. Wages and salaries in mining.manufacturing, construction /{ann. rate, bil. dol.)?

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977NOTE: For this economic process (i.e. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

BCII SEPTEMBER 1976 23Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart B2 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADECon.

Roughly Coincident IndicatorsCon.

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)p T

(Dee.) (Nov.)p

T

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

*56. Mwtfactariig and trade sales (bil. del.)

57. Fhal sales (series 200 minis series 245), Q(m. rate, Ml. del.)

Sales of retail stores,1972 dollars foil, tfett

*54. Sales et retail storts tocurrent dollars (bil. M.

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977

NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.Current data lor these series are shown on page 76.

24 SEPTEMBER 1976Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical TimingChart B3 | FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

*12. Net business loimation (index: 1967=100)

13. New business incorporations (thousands)

New Investment Commitments*6.;j New orders, durable goods industries (Ml. dol.)

20J

250n225-200-175-150-

125-

8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967=100MCD moving avg.-5-term)1

Contracts anil orders, plant and equipment (tiil, dol

63 64 65 66 67 68 75 76 1977'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.Current data for these series are shown on page 77.


Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical TimingChart B3 | FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Leading IndicatorsCon.

(July) (May)T


(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

11. New capital appropriations, nawfactitriig, Q (W. .)'

24. ttanrfactgrm' new ortsrs, capital goods industriestoi)

9. Construct^ contracts, cowMrcial and industrial(nil. sq, ft, of floor area; WCB moving

21 New private losing units started, total (ami. rate,m mm avg.-4-tenw)

Mdiif teratts. private toisiit inits (infex: 1967=1H

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.Current data for these series are shown on paces 77 and 78.

26 SEPTEMBER 1976 BCDDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart B3 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENTCon.


(July) (May)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

96. manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (bit.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bti.

expenditures, new plant and {ann. rate, b

Machinery and equipment sales and business construction \expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.Current data for these series are shown on page 78.



Chart B4 INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators

(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

245. Change in business inventories, 0(am rate. fail, dot.)

*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories(am. rate, bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials art(ami. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

28. Baying policy, production materials, percent of companies 90!

50 J

reporting commitments 60 days or longer

1953 54 5S 56 57 8 9 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

28 SEPTEMBER 1976 KCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Section B

Chart B4

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical TimingINVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENTCon.


(July) (May)P T

(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries(bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

Lagging Indicators

*71. Book value, manufacturing aid trade inventories (bit. dol.)

value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods

100-1

75-

50-

25-

+5-

+4-

+3-

+2-

+1-

0-

-1-

-2-

-3-

-4-

300-260-

220-

180-

140-

100-

55-i50-45-40-35-

30-

25-

20-

15-

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.Current data for these series are shown on page 79.



[ Chart B S ] PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators

(July) (May) (Aug.)(Apr.)P T P T

Sensitive Commodity Prices

(Apr.) (Feb.)? 1

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)

260-240-220-200-180-160-140-

120-

100-120-

100-

80-

60 J

CNJ-J

JKISt/J

*19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks(index-.

Profits and Profit Margins

Corporate profits after taxes, tt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

22 Ratio of orofits (after taxes) to total coroorale domestic incorofi. Q (Dercent)/-v.

30-

20-

14-

12-

10-

8-

6-7-

5-

3-130-i

120-

110-

100-

90-

1S Prnfitc f after iavflgi nor rinllar nf alec mannfapliirinirUaxesJ t^ inir p

K17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index-. 1967-100)

1953 54 55 56 5? 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data 1or these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.

30 SEPTEMBER 1976 ItCItDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


C h a r t B 5 | PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITSCon.


(Aug.)(Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars, Q(aim rate, Ml. dol.) \

34. Net cash flow,(aim. rate, til.


Comprehensive Wholesale Prices

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1967=100)110-

100-

90-

80-: , jiJi a Jlj'JL . . ' . ^ . . . ; - . ; uJ ' . : . . , . . - . . . . ' . . : > ^Jl ' : ^JLjLJ'L - , . . . ; - . - . . . ' . . . . . .

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977Current data (or these series are shown on page 80.

KCII SEPTEMBER 1976 31Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart B5 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITSCon.

Lagging Indicators

(July) (May)P T


(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

Unit Labor Costs

tart labor cost, private business sector-

63. Index, Q (1967=100)

63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rile, percent)

Lafeor cost (CHIT, dol.) ptr unit of real corporate protect, 8 (dollars)

*tt Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967-190)

1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 1977

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

32 SEPTEMBER 1976 ItCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

bcd_091976

Documents

council of economic

economic forecasting

department of commerceelliot

department of commerceu

astime series

thelist of series

economictime series

louisthis report