Báo cáo 13CÁC KHUYNH PHÁT TRIỂN CÔNG NGHỆTRONG THIẾT KẾ VÀ SẢN XUẤT IC

1. Khuynh hướng số lượng Transitors trên một mạch tích hợp (Transistors Per Integrated Circuit Trends)

2. Khuynh hướng hạ giá thành sản phẩm(Product Cost Trends)

The integrated circuit industry has an incredible record of cost reductions. Since the 1970 the integrated circuit industry has been reducing costs by 35% per year and this trend has continued through 2003! This trend is illustrated in figure 1.

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Figure 1. IC Cost Trends.

In figure 1, five trends are illustrated The first trend is the cost per one million bits of DRAM memory - green circles, the second is cost per one million instructions per second of Intel processor power - blue squares, the third is the cost per one million transistors for the industry as a whole - orange triangles, the fourth is the cost of one million instructions per second of Texas Instruments DSP power - purple diamonds, and finally the cost of one million Xilinx FPGA gates - redish brown circles.

3. Các khuynh hướng xử lý MOS Logic(MOS Logic Process Trends)

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4. Các khuynh hướng Vi xử lý(Microprocessor trends)

Year Product

Process

type

Line width (µm)

Transis

tors (M)

Mask

layers

Cell Construction Layers Die size (mm

) Proc/bus

(bits)

Clock (MHz

)

Voltage (V)

Cache (Kbits)

Poly

Metal

1971 4004 PMOS 10 0.0023 --- 4 0.108 12 0 1 1 13.5

1972 8008 PMOS 10 0.0035 --- 8 0.2 12 0 1 1 15.2

1974 8080 NMOS 6.0 0.006 --- 8 2 12 0 1 1 20.0

1976 8085 NMOS 3.0 0.0065 --- 8 0.37 5 0 1 1 20.0

1978 8086 NMOS 3.0 0.029 --- 16 5-10 5 0 1 1 28.6

1979 8088 NMOS 3.0 0.029 --- 16/8 5-8 5 0 1 1 28.6

1982 80286 CMOS 1.5 0.134 --- 16 6-12 5 0 1 2 68.7

1985 80386DX CMOS 1.5 0.275 10 32 16-33 5 0 1 2 104

1989 80486DX CMOS 1.0 1.2 12 32 25-50 5 0 1 3 163

1992

80486DX2 CMOS 0.8 1.2 --- 32 50-66 5 0 1 3 81

1993 Pentium BiCMO

S 0.8 3.1 18 32/64 60-66 5 0 1 3Al 264

199 80486DX CMOS 0.5 1.6 32 75- 5 0 1 3Al

3

4 4 1001995

Pentium Pro

BiCMOS 0.35 5.5 20 32/64 150-

200 3.3 0 1 4Al 310

1997

Pentium II CMOS 0.35 7.5 16 32/64 233-

300 2.8 0 1 4Al 209

1998 Celeron CMOS 0.25 19 19 32/64 300-

333 --- 128 1 5Al -

1999

Pentium III CMOS 0.18 28 21 32/64 500-

733 1.65 256 1 6Al 140

2000

Pentium 4 CMOS 0.18 42 21 32/64

1,400-

2,0001.7 256 1 6Al 224

2001

Pentium 4 CMOS 0.13 55 23 32/64

2,000-

2,2001.5 512 1 6Cu 146

2001 Itanium CMOS 0.18 25 21 64/64 733-

800 - 96 1 6Al -

2002

Pentium 4 CMOS 0.13 55 23 32/64

2,000-

3,0001.5 512 1 6Cu 131

2002

Itanium II CMOS 0.13 220 23 64/64 900-

1,000 - 256/1,500 1 6Al 421

2003

Pentium 4 CMOS 0.09 >55 25 32/64 >3,00

0 1.2 >512 1 7Cu -

5. Microlithography Trends

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6. Các khuynh hướng luật số mũ trong công nghiệp mạch tích hợp (Exponential Trends in the Integrated Circuit Industry)6.1 Moore’s LawIn 1965, Gordon Moore, director of research and development at Fairchild Semiconductor wrote a paper for Electronics entitled “Cramming more componentsonto integrated circuits”. In the paper Moore observed that “The complexity for minimum component cost has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year”. This observation became known as Moore's law. Moore's law was later amended to, the number of components per IC doubles every 18 - 24 months.

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6.2 RevenueDriven by Moore’s law and the continually increasing power of the integratedcircuit, the worldwide revenue for semiconductors has grown at over 14% per year.

6.3 LinewidthsOne of the key drivers behind the industries ability to double transistor counts every 18 to 24 months, is the continuous reduction in linewidths. Shrinking linewidths not only enables more components to fit onto an IC (typically 2x per linewidth generation) butalso lower costs (typically 30% per linewidth generation).

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6.4 Die sizeShrinking linewidths have slowed the rate of growth in die size to 1.14x per year versus 1.38 to 1.58x per year for transistor counts, and since the mid nineties acceleratinglinewidth shrinks have halted and even reversed the growth in die sizes.

6.5 The price of shrinking linewidths 1Process Complexity• Shrinking linewidths isn’t free. Linewidth shrinks require process modifications to deal with a variety of issues that come up from shrinking the devices - leading to increasingcomplexity in the processes being used.

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6.6 The price of shrinking linewidths 2Equipment Cost• Printing ever smaller linewidths requires equipment of ever increasing precisiondriving the cost of the equipment up. Exposure system costs have risen form ten of thousands of dollars, to over ten million dollars with no end in sight.

6.7. The price of shrinking linewidths 3Factory Cost• The cost of a semiconductor wafer fab has risen from less than ten million dollars in 1970 to over two billions dollars today. However, when productivity improvementssuch as shrinking linewidths, larger capacity factories and larger wafer sizes are accounted for, the cost per unit-out has fallen!

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6.8 Defect densitiesInvestments in new equipment and technology have driven down defect densities and Ultimately improved yields.

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6.9 Product pricingThe exponential increase in transistors per die while shrinking linewidths and die sizes and improving yields and factory productivity have all enabled product pricing to decline 35% per year while maintaining gross margins!

7. Die Size Trends

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8. Defect Density Trends

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