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Review and analysis Bangkok Bank Company Limited, ThailandTRANSCRIPT
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COMPANY ANALYSISby Group 3 Financial Industry
MMM SAT 10 - Finance 1Ramkhamhaeng University
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1 .. 2487 2.60 31 .. 56 1 4 1,157 8,472 1,142
26 1 13
3
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.
()
100%
100%
()
100%
.
100%
. 99.89%
. 75%
. ()100%
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4 1. 1157 , ATM 8,470 1,140
2. 26 , 1 . (13 )
3. - - -
4.
//
// ATM&ADM/Call Center/Internet & Mobile Service/ Biz iBanking / Credit-Debit Card & POS
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Bangkok Bank Berhad 5 Bangkok Bank (China) 4 , , , , ,, , , , ,
/ /
- . - . - . - - () - () - ()
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Interest Income, 61.10%
Non-Interest Income, 38.90%
: 91.46
82. 118.53 9.77
(44,53)
55,88
30.317.811.9
1110.66.35.66.5
21.245.89
3.002.502.95
35.58
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2557 GDP 0.6 GDP 2556 2.1
2558
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- .
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- . 1 4
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30
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- non bank
- M-Pay, Counter Service, 7-11
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BBL15.47%
KTB15.46%
SCB14.73%
KBANK12.93%
Other-Domestic
(12)28.97%
Other-Overseas
(14)12.45%
BBL17.12%
KTB17.24%
SCB16.66%
KBANK14.02%
Other-Domestic
(12)28.78%
Other-Overseas
(14)6.18%
BBL15.94%
KTB16.03%
SCB16.15%KBANK
13.31%
Other-Domestic
(12)30.99%
Other-Overseas
(14)7.58%
by Asset
by Deposits by Loans
2
1
3
: 16.18
2.5
1.87
: 10.93 : 10.70
1.71
: 56-1 2556
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Trend Analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BBL
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013BBL EPS 10.88 12.88 14.32 17.3 18.81
%YOY 2.64 18.38 11.18 20.81 8.73KBANK EPS 6.22 8.38 10.12 14.73 17.27
%YOY -2.96 34.73 20.76 45.55 17.24KTB EPS 1.09 1.33 1.52 2 2.43
%YOY -0.91 22.02 14.29 31.58 21.5SCB EPS 6.21 7.12 10.67 11.83 14.78
%YOY -31.23 14.65 49.86 10.87 24.94
BBL 2009
Economic Crisis
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Trend Analysis vs
other overseas
KBANK
BBL
KTB
SCBother domestic
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20102011
20122013
2014
6.9 7.47.2 7.6
10.31
14.514.2
13.713.3
11.14
16.5 16.816.2
15.9
12.69
17 16.815.9 16
13.67
14.2 15 16 16.2
13.08
3129.8 31 31
39.11 other overseasKBANK
BBL
KTB
SCB
other domestic
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Trend Analysis
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BBL
1,774,207.00 17.68
1,965,442.00 17.53
2,136,372.00 16.55
2,387,039.00 16.85
2,483,632.00 15.17
KTB 1,640,028.00 16.34
1,842,923.00 16.44
2,138,443.00 16.56
2,361,436.00 16.67
2,531,759.00 15.46
KBANK 1,372,119.00 13.67
1,565,311.00 13.96
1,750,669.00 13.56
2,040,774.00 14.40
2,135,048.00 13.04
SCB 1,254,954.00 12.51
1,601,166.00 14.28
1,915,012.00 14.83
2,308,332.00 16.29
2,335,078.00 14.26
BAY 819,631.00 8.17
863,139.00 7.70
962,575.00 7.46
1,026,782.00 7.25
1,128,519.00 6.89
TCAP 445,220.00 4.44
502,848.00 4.48
864,462.00 6.70
967,549.00 6.83
947,210.00 5.78
TISCO 139,002.00 1.39
189,551.00 1.69
220,203.00 1.71
306,917.00 2.17
307,796.00 1.88
KKP 131,792.00 1.31
175,708.00 1.57
226,690.00 1.76
235,675.00 1.66
241,662.00 1.48
CIMBT 128,578.00 1.28
143,553.00 1.28
175,197.00 1.36
217,801.00 1.54
253,449.00 1.55
LHBANK 54,447.00 0.54
71,280.00 0.64
92,068.00 0.71
134,422.00 0.95
155,486.00 0.95
BBL
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Common Size Analysis
2557 F Common-Size 2556 Common-Size 2555 Common-Size to Avg Asset to Avg Asset to Avg Asset
111,220,337 4.38% 100,404,996 3.95% 95,260,285 3.75% 55,048,211 2.17% 44,526,164 1.75% 40,307,641 1.59% 56,172,126 2.21% 55,878,832 2.20% 54,952,644 2.16% 31,319,836 1.23% 28,392,692 1.12% 25,625,078 1.01% 8,386,704 0.33% 7,154,018 0.28% 6,501,662 0.26% 22,933,132 0.90% 21,238,678 0.84% 19,123,416 0.75% 6,779,879 0.27% 5,795,886 0.23% 4,999,579 0.20% 2,798,341 0.11% 2,488,685 0.10% 1,140,301 0.04% 221,740 0.01% 161,824 0.01% 82,697 0.00% 3,290,294 0.13% 2,360,455 0.09% 2,018,795 0.08% 3,096,540 0.12% 2,968,382 0.12% 2,596,623 0.10% 391,067 0.02% 564,683 0.02% 496,551 0.02% 95,683,119 3.77% 91,457,425 3.60% 85,410,606 3.36%
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Common Size Analysis2557 F Common-Size 2556 Common-Size 2555 Common-Size to Avg Asset to Avg Asset to Avg Asset
22,383,263 0.88% 20,820,864 0.82% 18,896,676 0.74% 153,623 0.01% 140,354 0.01% 111,988 0.00% 9,376,007 0.37% 8,913,345 0.35% 8,681,573 0.34% 3,400,200 0.13% 3,318,449 0.13% 3,259,778 0.13% 4,001,546 0.16% 4,754,016 0.19% 6,196,339 0.24% 39,314,639 1.55% 37,947,078 1.49% 37,146,354 1.46% 7,263,474 0.29% 8,593,176 0.34% 7,248,420 0.29% 49,105,006 1.93% 44,917,171 1.77% 41,015,832 1.61% 9,821,001 0.39% 8,881,720 0.35% 9,100,284 0.36% 39,284,005 1.55% 36,035,451 1.42% 31,915,548 1.26%
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11.51 11.5312.77 12.61 13.03
0
5
10
15
20
25
53 54 55 56 57
ROE BBL
ROE SCB
ROE KBANK
ROE KTB
1.951.68 1.78 1.79
1.87
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
53 54 55 56 57
ROA BBL
ROA SCB
ROA KBANK
ROA KTB
ROA ROE
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BBLSCB
KBANKKTB
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
53 54 55 56 57
2.992.67
2.33 2.16 2.33
3.3
2.62.13 2.14 2.1
6.1
2.4 2.2 2.1 2.28
5.3
4
3.212.65 2.6 BBL
SCB
KBANK
KTB
KTB KBANK NPL BBL SCB
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Name MCap (M) P/E P/BV D/E ROA% ROE% Yield%BBL 379,860 10.6 1.24 7.47 1.78 12.12 3.2
KBANK 504,978 11.7 2.18 8.88 2.66 20.19 1.63
KTB 310,269 9.22 1.44 10.75 1.69 16.52 3.91
SCB 621,148 12.38 2.39 8.66 2.58 20.57 2.87
BAY 296,115 26.71 2.37 8.47 1.32 9.14 1.67
CIMBT 47,652 29.46 2.13 10.87 0.67 7.5 0.43
KKP 34,879 8.82 0.97 6.09 1.86 11.29 6.25
LHBANK 22,674 24.91 1.43 8.64 0.81 6.1 3.19
TCAP 45,362 4.97 0.88 19.06 1.98 18.18 4.48
TISCO 33,226 8.24 1.39 12.89 1.58 18.64 4.79
TMB 124,048 22.46 1.96 11.25 0.88 9.01 1.4
14.15 1.92 9.25 1.99 15.85 2.67
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SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Opportunities
Weaknesses
Threats
Helpful Harmful
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STRENGTHS- 1 4 . - - 2.5 1- 1157
- Defensive Stock .
OPPORTUNITIES-
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- Internet Online
THREATS-
- GDP
- . 30 non-bank
WEAKNESSES- 4-5
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2553 11.20 15.35 0.7296
2554 10.88 12.07 0.9014
2555 12.17 18.25 0.6668
2556 9.31 14.60 0.6377
10 57 18.30 = 0.7339
Price - Earnings Ratio
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1. Po/E1 =(18.30) (0.7339)= 13.4302
2. E1 = Eo x (1 + g)= 18.81 x ( 1+ 0.1277 ( 1 - 6.5 )
= 20.3622
3. Po = (20.3622)(13.4302)= 273.4684
BBL 10 2557 @ 203 267.94
18.81
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SETINDEX Return BBL Price Return DIV SUM53 1032.76 14754 1025.32 -0.72% 153.5 4.42% 3.26% 7.68%55 1391.93 35.76% 195.5 27.36% 3.07% 30.43%56 1298.71 -6.70% 178 -8.95% 3.65% -5.30%
Average 9.447%
Beta = 0.040406/= 0.76516
SET = 0.2298Covariance = 0.040406
Target Price = 228 (by IAA consensus) = 203 DIV = 3.4%R BBL = 3.4% +
= 15.71%
BBL = 0.180876Co Relation = [0.040406/(0.2298)(0.180876)]
= 0.9721
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 0.5 10.7652
E(R)= 15.71%
Beta
E(R) BBL 15.71% Security Market Line
SML