Baseline Survey Study for

Projects on Infrastructure Developments in Nepal

Umesh Kumar Mandal Associate Professor

Central Department of GeographyTribhuvan University, Kirtipur

Email: umesh_jee@hotmail.com Training on Management of Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Rehabilitation (MLARR) for the senior executives of DoR,17-20 January, 2013, Hotel Space Mountain, Nagarkot

Organized by Road Sector skill development Unit(RSSDU) & RHF

What is baseline Study ?• A baseline study is a descriptive cross-sectional

survey that mostly provides quantitative information on the current status of a particular situation - on whatever study topic - in a given population

• It aims at quantifying the distribution of certain variables in a study population at one point in time. It involves the systematic collection and presentation of data to give a clear picture of a particular situation as it relates the following: What? Who? Where? When? Why? How?

• A baseline normally covers only a sample of the population. If a baseline study covers the entire population it is called a census (FAO, 2004)

What is baseline Study ?• In RAIDP, a baseline study generates information

on the socio-economic status of a given population on selected indicators in a specific clusters.

• The baseline study is repeated at the completion of the development project/programme implementation to measure changes that have occurred over time in the characteristics that were studied before the beginning of the programme

What is baseline Study ?• A baseline study involves providing a snapshot of

the standard of living in a community/population at a given moment. Depending on the information needs of the entity, a new snapshot is taken at least every two to four years (depending on the length of the project). These snapshots (and the analysis of the changes in between the snapshots) provide the information needed to (re)design a project or programme( Oury 2008).

What is baseline data ?

• Baseline data are critical reference points for assessing changes

• Baseline data is used as a starting point for gauging progress towards the goal and objectives and measuring the level and direction of change

• It establishes a basis for comparing the situation before and after an intervention and making inferences as to the effectiveness of the project

• Baseline data should include the kind of information that would be appropriate for measuring changes in accordance with the objectives of the programme or intervention

What is baseline data ?

• Baseline data can be quantitative or qualitative or a combination of both.

• The situation analysis and need assessment  can provide some information that can serve as a baseline.

Question to ask about baseline plan ?

• Does the baseline data describe the situation prior to the intervention?

• Was it collected (will it be collected) within a timeframe close enough to the intervention so that meaningful conclusions can be reached regarding changes measured? There is no standard, recommended timeframe for meaningful, baseline data. The value of data for gauging possible change depends greatly on the context and environment.

• Does the information describe the situation and measure factors that the objectives address?

Question to ask about baseline plan ?

• Does the data accurately reflect the situation for the target population? If taken from a sample, can meaningful inferences be made about the target population?

• It is not always necessary or feasible for organizations to conduct extensive baseline studies. Keep in mind that baseline data can also be collected from existing sources.

Illustrative Baseline Surveys

• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04& 2010/11

• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E Baseline Survey 2010

• Nepal Demographic Health Survey• Labor force survey

Quantitative ?

Quantitative (or numerical) data provides comparable data on “who” and “how much.

Methods for collecting quantitative data:

• Surveys• Service provider records (health, justice, social

service records• Demographic data• Administrative records

Qualitative ?

Qualitative approaches provide contextual, in-depth information on the “why” and “how.” Qualitative information complements and provides greater insight into quantitative data.

Challenges and limitations of qualitative methods:• Qualitative participatory methods require more

time and resources• Qualitative data is harder to analyze and compare• Qualitative data is sometimes less “credible” to

policy makers and donors who prefer numbers

Qualitative

Methods for collecting qualitative data :• Case Study• Comparable views from diverse stakeholders• Triangulation:(document review, individual

interviews and focus group discussions), informants and researchers allowed for triangulation of the data to corroborate and validate the findings

• Participation of key stakeholders• Dialogue providing a neutral ground among some

sectors that rarely interacted( voiceless) and in the consensus-building process around the recommendations,

END LINE STUDY/ FOLLOW UP STUDY

PROJECTINTERVENTIO

N

• CHANGE or IMPACT ASSESSMENT

BASELINE STUDY

BEFORE AFTER

Why conduct a baseline Study ?

• To determine the extent of socio-economic patterns in a population and the usage levels of certain services, and to collect demographic information ( production, travel time/cost to socio-economic centers etc.)

• To draw conclusions that can be applied generally to the whole population of a locality/intervention zone

Why conduct a baseline Study ?

• To determine current indicator levels : transport ; non-agriculture activities , income, expenditure, - entrepreneurship ; education and health before intervention to prepare the programme objectives and to evaluate the progress/accomplishment of the additional objectives

• To establish the target level/objectives of the project/programme or to provide base values for the chosen indicators

The Stages Involved In A Baseline Study

1. Rationale and objectives

2. Description of the research location/geographical context

3. Methodology of the survey

4. Results

5. Conclusions and recommendations

Detailed Design of A Baseline Study

1. Formulating the study purpose

2. Formulating the problem statement

3. Research justification/rationale

4. Literature review

5. Setting study objectives

6. Methodology

7. Implementation of the baseline study in the field

8. Presentation of survey findings

1.Rationale and objectives• In formulating the study objectives, bear the

following in mind:• Objectives must cover the different aspects of the problem

and its contributing factors in a coherent and logical sequence.

• The objectives must be clearly phrased in operational terms, specifying exactly what needs to be done, where and for what purpose.

• Objectives must be realistic considering local conditions.• Action verbs that are specific and measurable must be used

in formulating the objectives. Examples of action verbs include: to determine, to compare, to verify, to calculate, to describe and to establish. Avoid such verbs as to appreciate, to understand or to study.

Setting study objectives using the SMART principle

SpecificMeasurableAchievableRealisticTime-framed

For Example: Project Development Objective (PDO) of

RAIDP Road Sub-project• 20 percent increase in motorize and non-motorized

trips by beneficiaries by the end of the Project (EOP), and

• 20 percent reduction in travel time by beneficiaries by EOP

• 30 percent increase in annual average daily traffic (AADT) with the project districts in the categories bus, truck, micro bus and jeep

Project Output Indicators• 15% increase in the number of people in

participating hill districts that live within four hours of walking to an all-season road, and

• 10% increase in the number of people in participating Tarai districts that live within two hours of walking to an all-season road

2. Description of the research location/geographical context

• This section contains the criteria used for selecting the location as well as gathering general information on the study population

Illustration: RAIDP Participating Districts

• Cluster I: Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, and Salyan, Kanchanpur, Surkhet, Dang

• Cluster II: Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Nawalparasi and Palpa,Pyuthan,Gulmi,Arghakhanchi

• Cluster III: Rasuwa, Kaski, Syangja, Dhading, Nuwakot and Makawanpur,Tanahu

• Cluster IV: Rautahat, Sarlahi, Mahottari, Dhanusa, Siraha and Udayapur ,Bara,Parsa,Saptari ( Map)

3. Methodology of the study

• This section must provide a detailed outline of the overall study and describe the design of the tools, the sampling strategies (including the sizes of the samples) and the methods used for gathering the data. It is necessary to explain and justify the use of the research specifications and the methods chosen and also to discuss all the problems encountered

Experimental Design

Sampling methods and sampling

size• Sampling: Sampling is essential because

populations tend to be large and resources and time available limited with the result that it is usually not possible to study each person. For this reason there is little choice but to select a sample from the population and from it make projections or generalizations regarding the entire population

• Representativeness

Sampling methods

• Systematic random sampling• Stratified random sampling• Cluster sampling

Sample size

Total number of group

Suggested number of

sample

Percentage

100 15 15200 20 10500 50 101000 50 5

Data collection tools and procedures1. Sex 1. Female

2. Male

2. Age group 1. 15 - 20 years

2. 21 - 30 years

3. 31 - 40 years

4. 41 and above

3. Place of delivery 1. Home

2. General hospital

3. Private hospital

Preparing the baseline study report

• The Executive Summary

• The Introduction•Presentation of findings•Conclusions and recommendations

Data analysis

• Univariate analysis

• Bivariate analysis

Multivariate analysis

Preparing the baseline study report

• The Executive Summary

• The Introduction

•Presentation of findings

•Conclusions and recommendations

THANK YOU

For Comments and Discussion

Review of project related documents

• Project Appraisal Document• Proposed Additional Grant• Social Screening• Environmental and social management

framework

Review of Earlier Baseline Survey Methodology

• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E

Baseline Survey 2010• Rural Access Program 2009• Impact Evaluation of rural road project, World

Bank, 2008• Socio-economic baseline survey of rural road

in Afganistan,2009

Key components derived from earlier Baseline Survey Methodology

• Census or Sample districts • Defining primary sample unit(PSU)• 12-15 sampled households selected from each

PSU

Developing baseline survey methodology of rural roads for RAIDP districts

Bases of developing methodology mentioned in TOR• Sound statistical analysis to be performed on

baseline data• Project (Treatment) and Control( Non-treatment)

Areas to be selected with the consultation of DoLIDAR and DDCs

• Zone of Influences• Acceptable sample household from

settlement( minimum 20 hh)• Sampled HH to be contained social groups• Piloting of survey designed

Developing baseline survey methodology of rural roads for RAIDP districts

Multi- Stage Quasi- randomized design

Stage 1: one road from each 20 existing district and all roads almost 20 are from 10 additional new districts). 40 roads from 30 districts

Stage 2: Total 80 PSUs , 2 PSUs from each road for project and control areas separately.

Stage 3: 20 sampled households, 15 for project and 5 for control area

Data Sources

1. Secondary• RAIDP documents/Various project reports• District level statistical data• Nepal Living Standard Survey

2. Primary data• Household questionnaire Survey• Settlement level FGD • Traffic Flow Survey• GPS survey• SDC check list

Survey tools for Project areas

• Household level questionnaire survey ( 450 hh) ( Nepali Conversion)

• Focus group discussion (FGD) at settlement level ( 30 FGDs)

• Accessibility or Traffic flow survey of selected road ( 30)

• GPS location of HH intervened ( 600 hh)

• GPS location for PSU

Survey tools for control areas

• Household level questionnaire survey ( 150)

• Focus group discussion (FGD) at settlement level( 30 FGDs)

• GPS location of HH intervened

• GPS location of PSU

• Pre-test of survey tools• Cluster level orientation

Baseline Data Analysis

• Project and Control Areas Comparasion

• Ecological regions

• Clusters

• Caste and Ethnicity

• Descriptive statistical summary measures

Output of Baseline Survey Study

• Baseline Survey Report

• GPS location of surveyed HH & Settlements

• Database of Study report

• Socio-economic Database:– Household level– Settlement level– Traffic survey

Major Findings

Demography of Sampled Population

• Male population is seen higher both program and control area (male 52.42% and female 47.58%).

• Average household size in project area and control villages was 6. 4 and 6.6 respectively

• Average family size of project area has slightly decreased.

• average household size of project road has increased than national level, 5.3 in2003/04. and 4.7 (NLSS 2010/11

Demography of Sampled Population

• Average household size of High hill caste in project is 5.85 ,Muslim ( 7.92)

• In control , Terai caste (5.6), muslim ( 9.38)

Dependency ratio of Sampled PopulationRegion Survey

clustersDependency ratio

Terai 1 56.48

2 55.93

4 56.75

Terai total 56.52Hill 1 57.79

2 46.69

3 52.96

4 61.76

Hill total 51.72

Grand Total 54.30

The overall dependency ratio of the survey districts in different clusters is 54.30 (see Table 2.2a & Table 2.2b), which is much lower than the decreasing trend of national average figure of both periods 84.4 ( NLSS 2010/11) and 89 (NLSS 2003/4).

Degree of spatial mobility

Table-2.3a: Degree of spatial mobility by eco-regions and project & control area

Survey Eco-Regions

Sample Population

People migrated Migration (%)

Terai 2074 159 7.67

Hill 1760 154 8.75

Project 3834 313 8.16

Terai 734 30 4.09

Hill 581 40 6.88

Control 1315 70 5.32

Total 5149 383 7.44

Degree of spatial mobility

Caste/ethnicity and area

Project area Control areaSample Population

People migrated

Migration (%)

Sample Population

People migrated

Migration (%)

High hill caste 1289 114 8.84 308 18 5.84Hill Dalits 311 27 8.68 135 8 5.93Hill Janajati 723 70 9.68 413 26 6.30Terai caste 590 31 5.25 140 4 2.86Terai Dalit 539 38 7.05 160 10 6.25Terai Janajati 156 15 9.62 84 2 2.38Musalman 198 18 9.09 75 2 2.67Other caste 28 0 0.00 0 0 0.00Sub-total 3834 313 8.16 1315 70 5.32 Total 5149 383 7.44

Degree of spatial mobility

Caste/ethnicity and Area

Project area Control area

No of People Travelled Nepal India

Other countries

No of People Travelled Nepal India

Other countries

High hill caste 114 27.19 33.33 39.47 18 11.11 27.78 61.11Hill Dalits 27 3.70 62.96 33.33 8 12.50 75.00 12.50Hill Janajati 70 28.57 34.29 37.14 26 7.69 15.38 76.92Terai caste 31 12.90 16.13 70.97 4 50.00 50.00 0.00Terai Dalit 38 31.58 28.95 39.47 10 60.00 30.00 10.00Terai Janajati 15 0.00 53.33 46.67 2 50.00 50.00 0.00Muslim 18 5.56 22.22 72.22 2 0.00 50.00 50.00Other caste 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00Sub-total 313 22.04 34.19 43.77 70 20.00 31.43 48.57 Total 383 21.67 33.68 44.65

Literacy RateSurveyed clusters

Sample Populations 6years and above

% 0f Literate peopleMale Female Both

N0 % N0 % N0 %Cluster -I 985 480 92.13 364 78.45 844 85.69Cluster -II 842 413 94.94 325 79.85 738 87.65Cluster -III 698 332 91.71 264 78.57 596 85.39Cluster -IV 951 442 86.84 313 70.81 755 79.39 Project 3476 1667 91.24 1266 76.77 2933 84.38Cluster -I 358 168 91.30 135 77.59 303 84.64Cluster -II 348 158 89.77 133 77.33 291 83.62Cluster -III 199 90 88.24 69 71.13 159 79.90Cluster -IV 304 149 88.69 101 74.26 250 82.24 Control 1209 565 89.68 438 75.65 1003 82.96Total 4685 2232 90.84 1704 76.48 3936 84.01

THANK YOU

For Comments and Discussion

Why developing methodology for baseline survey of rural road for RAIDP by World Bank

• Evaluation of impact assessment

• No concrete methodology developed by World Bank but guidelines.

• Methodological drawbacks in earlier baseline survey

• developing statistical sound methodology

Drawbacks of Earlier Baseline Survey

• Three level of zone of influence is not covered.• Control village selected is not based on similar

existing level of accessibility to main road network, basic economic and social facilities

• Questionnaire developed is not in form of questionnaire rather draft table.

• Household interviewed can not be identified now

because of lack of data base

Required data for road alignment and covering VDCs