balancing, settlement & trading - snam · de biaggi alessandro motta paolo talarico enzo alferi...

BALANCING, SETTLEMENT & TRADING18th February 2020

Balancing, Settlement & Trading

2

SETTLEMENTManager: Ametrano Mario

Bianchi ValeriaConti GiovanniMonti GiancarloNegri GiovanniSerra Davide

COMMERCIAL DISPATCHING & GAS OPERATIONAL PLANNING

Manager: Latini Claudio

TRADING & GAS MARKETSManager: Mapelli Stefano

Conti LucaModica Calogero

Papa SaraPezzimenti Marco

Agneta DomenicoBincoletto RudiCeruti Marco

De Biaggi AlessandroMotta PaoloTalarico Enzo

Alferi SalvatoreArena Cristian

Baiardelli GianlucaCappelli Rebecca

Carbone MarcoCariello AndreaCorcelli DannyFiorillo Daniele

Granvillano GaetanoGuastamacchia Cristian

Indriolo CarmeloLucchetta Jacopo

Marinoni GianpaoloMarsella Giovanni

Molinari AndreaMorrone Riccardo

Nunnari LucaPocchia Maurizio

Rotta StefanoSalvi Mattia

Tedoldi FedericoChiodaroli Giorgio

Cravedi RodolfoMasariè Andrea


3

Agenda Balancing & Analysis

Ψ Term: focus on Δk

AGS Actions

Settlement: definitive balance & invoicing

Settlement: adjustment session & invoicing

Q & A

Networking Cocktail


4

Do you have a question? Write it on Slido!

• Go on: https://www.sli.do/• Or download the app SLIDO on your smartphone

Code: #BST

https://www.sli.do/

Balancing & Analysis1.

Performance p1 – Temporal evolution: 2019/20 vs previous TY

6NOTE: data of January 2020 are estimated on the basis of provisional balance

5,0%

3,8%

4,8%

4,1%

3,0%2,6%

3,5% 3,6%

3,0%3,4% 3,6%

2,1%2,6%

3,1%3,5%

2,2%

5,5%

5,0%

4,4%

3,2%

2,8%2,9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Oct Nov Dec Jan

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20 Neutrality

GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct /Jan average


7

0,7% 0,5%0,9%

1,3%

0,4% 0,7%1,4%

0,4%1,9% 1,2% 1,5%

1,6%

5,4%

2,7%

2,1%2,3%

2,0%

0,9%0,7%

1,3%

3,1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Oct Nov Dec Jan


GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct/Jan average


8

4,9 4,7

6,9 7,1

2,6

3,3

5,7

2,9 3,1 2,9 3,0 2,4

3,3

2,6 3,0

2,4

3,0

5,9

3,62,92,8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]


GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct/Jan average

9

Performance – Temporal evolution: Q1-2018/19 vs Q1-previous TY

41

67

11 4

67

43

11 2

58

32 267

56

1530 22

0

20

40

60

80

0 0%-2% 2%-5% >5%

Deviation P2 %

Oct/Jan - TY 1617 Oct/Jan - TY 1718 Oct/Jan - TY 1819 Oct/Jan - TY 1920

26 16 17

64

37 3116

3939 34 30 20

4630 24 23

0

20

40

60

80

0-15 [GWh] 15-31,4 [GWh] 31,4-50 [GWh] >50 [GWh]

Residual Balance [GWh]

Oct/Jan - TY 1617 Oct/Jan - TY 1718 Oct/Jan - TY 1819 Oct/Jan - TY 1920

MGAS Short-Term Exchange

10

1,51,8

2,9

1,91,4

0,7 0,91,1

0,8 1,0 1,0 0,71,0

1,81,4

0,7

1,81,4

0,9

1,61,0 0,9 1,2 1,0

0,5

1,52,0 1,9

1,1 1,2

2,01,3 1,4 1,1 0,8

1,3 1,3 1,1

2,5

1,0

0,2

0,3

0,6

1,4

0,8

0,7 0,4

1,11,1

1,3 1,11,3

1,6

1,6

1,1

1,0

2,1

1,7

1,6

1,8

2,22,6

2,7

2,02,4

3,0

3,24,0

2,9

3,8

3,4

3,5 3,2

5,1

4,6 3,6

5,2

4,6

4,6

5,4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

[TW

h]

RdB Users

MGAS - MGP Exchange

11

0

2

4

6

8O

ct-1

6

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

[mcm

/d]

MGP+1

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

[mcm

/d] MGP+2

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

[mcm

/d]

MGP+3

MGAS - MI vs MGP

12

98%95% 94%

90%

97%95% 94%

90%88%

83%85%

82%84%

88%

83%

79% 78% 76%

72%75%

58%61% 62%

64%

55%

70% 70%67% 67% 68%

71%

62%

69%

60%

54%

60%

56% 56%

65% 64%

1% 4% 5%6%

2% 3% 4%8% 8%

12%10%

13% 12%9%

10%15% 17% 20%

22%22%

34% 30%31% 30%

34%

24%20% 26% 25% 23%

23%

29%

24%

33%

36%31% 38% 37%

24% 29%

2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%1%

4% 3% 1% 3%2%

2% 3%2% 2%

4%

2%5%

3% 3% 5% 2% 4%4% 3%

4% 4%3% 4%

7%3%

2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 6% 5% 4% 7%3% 5% 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 4% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Prompt market liquidity

MI MGP+1 MGP+2 MGP+3

MGAS: MI+MGP liquidity

13

AverageQ1 - 1617: 8,1 mcm/d

AverageQ1 - 1718: 7,8 mcm/d

AverageQ1 - 1819:

14,2 mcm/d

5,1 6,7 10,5 10,2

0

10

20

30

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

[mcm

/d]

7,9 10,6 7,4 5,4

0

10

20

30


[mcm

/d]

8,9 14,2 16,0

17,9

0

10

20

30


[mcm

/d]

19,7 18,1 21,6 20,2

0

10

20

30


[mcm

/d] Average

Q1 - 1920: 19,9 mcm/d

MGAS – Long Term Exchange

14

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.0002

01

6-1

0

20

16

-11

20

16

-12

20

17

-01

20

17

-02

20

17

-03

20

17

-04

20

17

-05

20

17

-06

20

17

-07

20

17

-08

20

17

-09

20

17

-10

20

17

-11

20

17

-12

20

18

-01

20

18

-02

20

18

-03

20

18

-04

20

18

-05

20

18

-06

20

18

-07

20

18

-08

20

18

-09

20

18

-10

20

18

-11

20

18

-12

20

19

-01

20

19

-02

20

19

-03

20

19

-04

20

19

-05

20

19

-06

20

19

-07

20

19

-08

20

19

-09

20

19

-10

20

19

-11

20

19

-12

20

20

-01

20

20

-02

20

20

-03

20

20

-04

20

20

-05

20

20

-06

[MWh/g]

Quarterly Monthly BoM

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

20

16

-10

20

16

-11

20

16

-12

20

17

-01

20

17

-02

20

17

-03

20

17

-04

20

17

-05

20

17

-06

20

17

-07

20

17

-08

20

17

-09

20

17

-10

20

17

-11

20

17

-12

20

18

-01

20

18

-02

20

18

-03

20

18

-04

20

18

-05

20

18

-06

20

18

-07

20

18

-08

20

18

-09

20

18

-10

20

18

-11

20

18

-12

20

19

-01

20

19

-02

20

19

-03

20

19

-04

20

19

-05

20

19

-06

20

19

-07

20

19

-08

20

19

-09

20

19

-10

20

19

-11

20

19

-12

20

20

-01

20

20

-02

20

20

-03

20

20

-04

20

20

-05

20

20

-06

[MWh/g]

MI MGP Quarterly Monthly BoM

Number of the RdB market interventions

15

AverageQ1 - 1617:

85 %

AverageQ1 - 1718:

59 %

AverageQ1 - 1819:

60 %

21B: 15S: 6

27B: 14S: 13

29B: 21S: 8

28B: 16S: 1210 3 2 3

68%90% 94% 90%

0%

50%

100%

0

10

20

30

17B: 15S: 2

19B: 17S: 2

18B: 9S: 9

18B: 2S: 16

14 11 13 13

55%63% 58% 58%

0%

50%

100%

0

10

20

30

14B: 4S: 10

19B: 13S: 6

24B: 14S: 10

17B: 12S: 5

1711 7 14

45%63%

77%

55%

0%20%40%60%80%100%

0

10

20

30

17B: 12S: 5

15B: 10S: 5

21B: 13S: 8

15B: 9S: 6

14 15 1016

55% 50%68%

48%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10

20

30

Oct Nov Dec Jan

% days with RdB intervention

AverageQ1 - 1920:

55 %

n° days with RdB intervention n° days without RdB intervention

MGAS: RdB trades

16

86,3 88,2 86,2 98,9

37,5 24,0 41,0 39,9

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

[mcm

]

MGAS - RdB total traded

Purchase SRG Sales SRG Purchase TY average Sales TY average

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Average physical flow/STSP traded - buy

Monthly Average

Global Average

78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Average physical flow/STSP traded - sell

Monthly Average

Global Average

System reaction - Tarvisio

17

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Short

Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage

-10

-5

0Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Long


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


[€/M

Wh]

[mcm

/d]

Tarvisio Initial flow

Capacity Tarvisio Initial Flow Spread PSV-CEGH DA

System reaction – Gries Pass

18

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Short


-10

-5

0Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Long


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


[€/M

Wh]

[mcm

/d]

Gries Pass Initial flow

Capacity Gries Pass Initial Flow Spread PSV-TTF DA

System reaction - Storage

19

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Short


-10

-5

0Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Long


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160


[€/M

Wh]

[mcm

/d]

Storage Initial flow

Capacity [-inj; +with] Storage Initial Flow Spread PSV DA-MA Spread PSV DA-MGS

System reaction – Temporal evolution: 1920 vs previous TY

20

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Storage - short

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Tarvisio - short

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

0

2

4

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Gries - short

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

-15-10

-50

Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Storage - long

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

-15

-10

-5

0Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Tarvisio - long

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

-15

-10

-5

0Oct Nov Dec Jan

[mcm

]

Gries - long

GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20

European Hub

21

Fonte: ICIS

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Day Ahead Price

PSV DA TTF DA VTP DA NCG DA

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Day Ahead Spread

Spread PSV-TTF DA Spread PSV - VTP DA Spread PSV - NCG DA

Pricing – winter 1920 vs previous winter

Fonte: ICIS

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

[€/M

Wh]

PSV Day-Ahead

PSV DA 1718 PSV DA 1819 PSV DA 1920

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

[€/M

Wh]

TTF Day-Ahead

TTF DA 1718 TTF DA 1819 TTF DA 1920

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

[€/M

Wh]

VTP Day-Ahead

VTP DA 1718 VTP DA 1819 VTP DA 1920

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb[€/M

Wh]

NCG Day-Ahead

NCG DA 1718 NCG DA 1819 NCG DA 1920

23

Gas Day 23/01/2020 (Thursday)

Gas demand = 357,9 mcm:• Tarvisio: 90,6 mcm

• Gries Pass: 40,0 mcm

• Mazara del Vallo: 42,7 mcm

• Gela: 12,3 mcm

• Cavarzere: 22,7 mcm

• Panigaglia: 1,6 mcm

• Storage: 129,3 mcm

• National productions: 10,7 mcm

Pricing

(€/MWh):

PSV = 13,142

MGS = 12,100

VTP = 11,628

NCG = 11,257

PEG = 10,590

P2 = 2,38 % / P3 = 44,60 GWh

14,000

12,6

12,8

13

13,2

13,4

13,6

13,8

14

14,2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

00

:00

01

:00

02

:00

MGAS Quantity Quota RdB SAP RdB bids

[mcm

]

[€/M

Wh

]

-6,4-5,5

-8,1

-12,7-11,7

4,5 5,1 3,9 4,0

7,18,9 8,9 8,9

7,0 6,25,0 4,5

-0,2 -0,4 -0,30,5 0,5 0,8

4,2

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6D

SAS

[mcm

]

RdB Exchanged Quantities

Residual Balance

RdB Offered Quantities

Tarvisio:+8,6 mcm

h. 10:00÷12:00

Gries:+ 2,3 mcm

h. 10:00÷12:00

Demand:- 3,4 mcm

h. 05:00÷06D

Tarvisio:+4,5 mcm

h. 15:00÷17:00

Tarvisio:-4,5 mcm

h. 23:00÷00:00

24

Gas Day 06/02/2020 (Thursday)

Gas demand = 299,4 mcm:• Tarvisio: 70,6 mcm

• Gries Pass: 36,2 mcm

• Mazara del Vallo: 26,3 mcm

• Gela: 11,3 mcm

• Cavarzere: 22,3 mcm

• Panigaglia: 3,5 mcm

• Storage: 107,6 mcm

• National productions: 10,9 mcm

Pricing

(€/MWh):

PSV = 11,626

MGS = 10,400

VTP = 10,537

NCG = 10,163

PEG = 9,483

P2 = 5,29 % / P3 = 2,78 GWh

10,400

7

8

9

10

11

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6:0

0

7:0

0

8:0

0

9:0

0

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

0:0

0

1:0

0

2:0

0

MGAS Quantity RdB Exchanged Quantities SAP RdB Bids Price

[mcm

]

[€/M

Wh]

27,4 28,6

22,920,6 19,7

13,612,3 13,1

16,018,2 20,7

11,7

-0,6

8,2

1,5 0,5 1,5 1,1-1,6 -1,6 -1,3 -1,3 -1,2 -0,9

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6D

SAS

[MSm

c]

RdB Exchanged Quantities

Residual Balance

RdB Offered Quantities

Tarvisio:- 16,9 mcm

h. 16:00÷18:00

Stock:

- 2,7 mcmh. 16:00÷00:00

25

SRG activities on the MGS

Link: http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessioni_approvvigionamenti_gas-delibera_312_2016RGas/

Link: http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessione-approvvigionamenti-art-8-TIB/

MGS: Daily market managed by GME for the negotiation of gas in storage(Art. 7 of TIB)

Sales/purchases for balancing (SOP)

Art. 2 TIB

Sales/purchases for neutralityArt. 8 TIB

Sales/purchases for operating gas

Art. 7.1 312/2016/R/gas

• Gap between the measured energy and the programmed energy at the entry and exit points interconnected with the storages (Sop) of the previous gas day

• ΔLP not programmed:∆𝐿𝑃𝑁= 𝑆𝑇

∆𝐿𝑃 − ∆𝐿𝑃

• Gas not accounted:𝐺𝑁𝐶𝑁 = 𝑆𝑇

𝐺𝑁𝐶 + 𝛾𝑔𝑛𝑐𝑃 − 𝐺𝑁𝐶

• Consumption and losses:excess/defect compared to predefined bands

• Sales/purchases for TSO needs different than those specified in TIB

http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessioni_approvvigionamenti_gas-delibera_312_2016RGas/http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessione-approvvigionamenti-art-8-TIB/

Ψ Term: focus on Δk2.

Quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) Ch. 9, par. 3.1.3

Ψ = C + PE + GNC + ΔLPC + ΔSett - IT OBA - SNT

Definition of Ψ

• Definition of gas quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) as the sum of network losses,

own-gas, GNC, linepack variation, delta IO, quantities related to interconnection agreements with

domestic operators and gas storage quantities (SNT)

• The TSO procures the gas quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) through open and non-

discriminatory procedures

27

Amount of gas allocated to the TSO (ΔSett) Ch. 9, par. 3.1.3

ΔSett = REMI[INREMI – (KPREMI,K)]=

REMI[INREMI – K (GREMI,K + GIDREMI,K + MREMI,K – Yprev

REMI,K)]

Definition of ΔSett

• INREMI the daily gas volume measured at the city-gate

• PREMI,K the daily gas volume determined for each Shipper on the base of data communicated from

Acquirente Unico

28

Modeling – Input Data

29

▪ Wheater Data• Cities• Cells

▪ Temporal information• Month• Dayof the week and of

the month• National holidays

▪ Geographical data• Latitude and longitude

coordinates• Region and province• Climate Zone and

Climate Area

▪ Measured Data• Measurement report• Wkr forecasts• Telemetered data• Consumption profiles

▪ Free parameters for the modeling of categorical variables

Modeling – Input Data – Telemetered geographic coverage

30

Features Cells Model

Percentage of cells covered by remote reading

Percentage of ReMi Not Telemetered ≈3%

▪ Training set: from Thermal Year 2013-2014 to Thermal Year 2017-2018.

▪ Model selection: cross-validation based on K-folds cross-validation (K=5 Thermal Years) in order to obtain a solid estimator of performances.

▪ Test set: the model chosen was tested for forecasts of ΔSett of Thermal Year 2018-2019 in order to evaluete the final performance.

▪ The chosen model uses an arithmetic mean (ensable) of forecasts of everyone of 5 models

Modeling – Training and Test Set

31

32

Modeling – evaluation KPI

The KPI proposed to evaluate the goodness of the model is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE).

𝑀𝐴𝐸 =σ𝑖𝑛 Δ𝑘

𝑟𝑙𝑧𝑑 − Δ𝑘𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑣

𝑛

n is the number of days in the time interval considered.

Term Ψ Purchased/Selled

33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

°C

Tho

usa

nd

of

MW

h

Ψ Forecast

Consumption Losses GNC ΔLP Δsett GG

AGS Auction3.

AGS Auction

35

Only BilateralA shipper can only offer quantities of opposite sign to that of Snam Rete Gas (SRG)

TimingTwo auctions per day that end at 1.30 p.m (with publication of results at 2.00 p.m. by GME):- MI-Product: with flow in the Gas Day D- MGP-Product: with flow in the Gas Day D+1

PricesSRG will offer quantities with:- Purchase price = the SAP average of the 7 days preceding the trading day + 30 €/MWh- Sell price = 0 €/MWh

No impact on SAP (System Avarage Price)

Transactions concluded on AGS auctions are excluded from SAP calculation

Autority Resolution 451/2019/R/gas defines the characteristics of the AGS (Auction Gas System):

Term Ψ Publication

36

Every day, starting from 12.00p.m. the Ψ Term is published intothe «operational data» availableon Snam website at the followinglink:

https://www.snam.it/en/transportation/operational-data-business/8_network_operational_balancing_data/index.html

https://www.snam.it/en/transportation/operational-data-business/8_network_operational_balancing_data/index.html

Term Ψ Publication

37

MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh

INTAKE 164,8 1.741.984,7 163,8 1.732.017,0 165,1 1.745.925,6

Other storages (Edison Stoccaggio, IGS) (4)

-8,3 -87.275,8 -8,5 -89.585,9 0,0 0,0

DEMAND (1)

261,4 2.764.189,9 221,7 2.344.261,6 215,3 2.276.816,5

- Final customers directly interconnected with the Transmission System 110,1 1.163.964,2 80,8 854.612,0 88,9 939.578,5

- Thermoelectric 45,8 483.971,6 N.D. N.D.

- Deliveries to distribution systems and other national TSOs interconnections 146,5 1.549.209,6 141,2 1.492.540,3 126,5 1.337.238,0

- Losses, Fuel consumption and unaccounted for gas 4,8 51.016,2 -0,3 -2.890,7 N.D. N.D.

EXPORT 1,3 14.228,3 0,6 6.295,6 0,7 7.447,2

Provisional/Forecast storage flow from/to(2)

-89,2 -943.492,0 -65,0 -686.984,1 N.D. N.D.

Balancing Users (A1) -88,7 -938.107,0 -65,0 -686.984,1 N.D. N.D.

Transport operator (A2) -0,5 -5.385,0 0,0 0,0 N.D. N.D.

Available storage capacity (2)

Balancing Users (B1) -107,6 -1.137.443,7 -89,0 -940.491,1 -104,4 -1.104.183,6

Transport operator (B2) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

EXPECTED SYSTEM IMBALANCE (SAS) (6)

11,9 125.438,2 N.D. N.D.

LP D-1 RECOVERY 0,0 0,0

RESIDUAL BALANCE 11,9 125.437,8

Network Line Pack (Lpe/LP

d) 554,9 5.867.271,7 554,9 5.867.271,7

Network Line Pack ex Art.5.2 Del312/2016 566,8 5.992.709,4

Sop 0,5 5.385,0

Degree-Days weighted mean Italy 18°C 8,5 9,4 10,1

Y provisional/to be supplied (7)

-35,6 -376.192,6 -3,1 -32.592,0 -3,4 -36.144,0

GAS DAY (D-1): 14/02/2020 GAS DAY (D): 15/02/2020 GAS DAY (D+1): 16/02/2020

Provisional Gas Transportation End of day forecast Forecast

- Area GAS DAY (D-1): the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term resulting from

the provisional balance allocation;

- Area GAS DAY (D) the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term that will be

puchased/selled in the AGS auction in the gas day D with flow in the gas D

(MI Product)

- Area GAS DAY (D+1) the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term that will be

puchased/selled in the AGS auction in the gas day D with flow in the gas D+1

(MGP Product)

(+ SRG buys/- SRG sells)

Term Ψ impacts on SAS (previsional system imbalance)

38

Thursday, 30th JanuaryΨ = -6,7 mcm

Friday, 14th FebruaryΨ = -15,4 mcm

AGS Auctions - Prices

39

-150.000

-100.000

-50.000

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

10,0

11,0

12,0

13,0

14,0

15,0

16,0

01/01/2020 16/01/2020 31/01/2020 15/02/2020

MW

h

€/M

Wh

AGS - MGP

AGS MGP - Quantity SAP (MGP+1) AGS MGP

-200.000

-150.000

-100.000

-50.000

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

9,0

11,0

13,0

15,0

17,0

01/01/2020 16/01/2020 31/01/2020 15/02/2020

MW

h

€/M

Wh

AGS - MI

AGS MI - Quantity SAP (MI) AGS MI

Settlement: definitive balance & invoicing4.

41

SII communicates to DSOs, TSOs and UdDs the information

relating to the previous monthly

Gas

communication of

inconsistencies by UdDs

Check performend by

SII and communication

to DSOs

communication of corrections by

DSOs

Confirmation of Data

16th February 2020 Within 1 WD

SettlementDefinitive Balance of January 2020

Within 1 WD Within 2 WD

SNAM makes the gas transportation

balance available to UdBs

Requests for the correction of the

balance

Recalculation and publication the transportation

balance (definitive

transportationbalance)

28th February 2020 Within 2 WD

Definitive Allocation Reports – Virtual Points Allocation

42NEW Report

Unità di misura: MWh

Versione di Pubblicazione:

Data estrazione report:

Ora Estrazione:

Giorno Gas Misuratore Quota Allocato Attribuito CG Quota Allocato Effettivo CG Quota Allocato Definitivo CF Allocato Definitivo Totale

01/10/2019

02/10/2019

03/10/2019

04/10/2019

05/10/2019

06/10/2019

07/10/2019

08/10/2019

09/10/2019

10/10/2019

11/10/2019

12/10/2019

13/10/2019

Allocato Punti Virtuali

UTENTE : Ragione Sociale UdB

PERIODO : Gennaio 2020

Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals with UdD detail

43NEW Report

Unità di misura: Data elaborazione

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Ragione Sociale Cliente Tipo Mercato Tipo Trattamento Partita IVA

Prelievo

Attribuito Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr31 PCS1 PCS31

Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) con dettaglio clienti

Utente: Ragione sociale UdB

Periodo: Mese Anno

Prelievo Attribuito: Sm3, PCS: MWh/Sm3

Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals with UdB detail

44NEW Report

Unità di misura: Data elaborazione report:

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Descrizione Misuratore

Prelievo Attribuito

Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr31 PCS1 PCS31

Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) per l'Utente: Ragione sociale

dell'utente

Periodo: Gennaio 2019

Prelievo Attribuito: Sm3, PCS: MWh/Sm3

Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals per metered frequency

45NEW Report

Unità di Misura:Data di elaborazione report:

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Periodo Tipo Trattamento

Prelievo

Attribuito Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr2 Prel_Attr30 Prel_Attr31Descrizione Misuratore

Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) aggregati per tipologia di misurazione

utente: Ragione sociale Utente del Bilanciamento

Periodo: Mese AnnoPrelievo Attribuito: Sm3

Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption with UdD detail

46UPDATED Report

Unità di misura:

Data elaborazione report:

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Ragione Sociale Cliente Tipo Mercato Tipo Trattamento Partita IVA Consumo Effettivo Mese Consumo_Eff1 Consumo_Eff31 PCS1 PCS31

Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) con dettaglio clienti

Utente: Ragione sociale dell'UdB

Periodo: Mese AnnoConsumo Effettivo: Sm3 , PCS: MWh/Sm3

Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption with UdB detail

47UPDATED Report

Unità di misura:

Data elaborazione report:

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Descrizione Misuratore Consumo Effettivo Mese Consumo_Eff1 Consumo_Eff31 PCS1 PCS31

Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) per l'Utente: Ragione sociale

Periodo: mese anno

Consumo Effettivo: ; PCS:

Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption per metered frequency

48UPDATED Report

Unità di MisuraData di elaborazione report

Area di Prelievo Misuratore Periodo Tipo Trattamento

Consumo

Effettivo Mese Con_ Eff1 Con_ Eff2 Con_ Eff30 Con_ Eff31Descrizione Misuratore

Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) aggregati per tipologia di misurazione

utente: Ragione sociale Utente del Bilanciamento

Periodo: mese annoConsumio Effettivo:

Definitive Allocation Reports – Total amounts of Attributed Withdrawals

49NEW Report

Unità di Misura:Data di Elaborazione:Versione Pubblicazione:

Giorno

Quota prelievo

Attribuito City gate

Quota prelievo Attribuito

Clienti Finali Totale Prelievo

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Totale Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) per l'Utente: ragione sociale UdB

Periodo: mese anno

Definitive Allocation Reports – Definitive Balance Report

50

UPDATED Report

Denominazione Utente:

Unità di misura:

Versione di Pubblicazione:

Data estrazione report:

Giorno ImmessoImmesso

RigassificatoriStoccaggio Totale Stoccaggio Stogit

Stoccaggio

EdisonStoccaggio Italgas

Quota Stoccaggio

Stogit alla PB-GASSaldo PSV Saldo GME Saldo Locational Saldo G-1 Saldo G+1 Saldo Delta GNL Prelevato

Prelevato da Esportazioni

Prelevato da Reti di Distribuzione

Prelevato da Clienti Finali

Reso In

Natura

SRG

Reso in natura

altri

trasportatori

Disequilibrio

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

TOTALE

13/11/2019

Bilancio Definitivo

GENNAIO 2019Ragione sociale UdB

MWH

2

Definitive Allocation Reports – ΔIOUdB Report

51

NEW Report

Unità di Misura: MWhData di Elaborazione: 20/02/2020Versione Pubblicazione: 1

Giorno

Prelievo Attribuito

(P UdB ) Consumo Effettivo (C UdB ) Differenza (ΔIO

UdB )

1 20,000 70,000 -50,000

2 40,000 30,000 10,000

3

4

5

6

7

Periodo: Gennaio 2020

Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) Consumi Effettivi (termine C) e relativa differenza (ΔIOUdB) per l'Utente:

• The application of provisions referred to Article 6.1bis, commae) of Resolution 249/2012/R/gas is suspended until March 1st,2020

• The application of the regulation determines, in the casesprovided for, the termination of the distribution contract andconsequently the activation of the services of last resort fromApril 1st, 2020

• The SDDT activated for UdDs due to the absence of validcorrespondence relationships will be delivered up to the end ofthe month of March 2020

Resolution 9/2020/R/gas

10

✓ The economic items of January 20, referred to the Settlement regime, will be regulated in March 20

✓ DSK in continuity with AS IS

D I/O: ✓ the balance of the daily items will be settled on a monthly basis, valued at the average SAP price of the month M

✓ the invoices issued by SRG vs UDB will be in Reverse Charge and expire in 15 days

✓ the invoices issued by UDB vs SRG will be in Reverse Charge and expire in 30 days

✓ the liquidation by SRG vs UDB will be performed after receiving funds from CSEA. No compensation with DSK

SETTLEMENT REGIME – Resolution 72/2018

✓ Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates

✓ At the end of May, each shipper will be able to request additional transportation capacity according to the terms and conditions as in Chapter 5 of the SRG Network Code (regarding the capacity booking process for the thermal year 19/20)

✓ Overrun capacity penalties on city gates are therefore frozen until the end of May

NEW Booking Process on May 2020 – Resolution 538/2019

News from Balancing Regime – Invoicing processes

Settlement: Adjustment session5.

Annual adjustment session 2019 (Year 2018) - Tidbits

55

Adjustment Session 2018

Year 2018

# of REMI 2788

A Median 0%

A Average 0,58%

A ABS Average 21,42%

10% A abs 50%

(#of REMI)246

50% A abs 100%

(#of REMI)17

100% abs

(#of REMI)7

Annual adjustment session 2019 (Year 2018) - Tidbits

56

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

gen-18 feb-18 mar-18 apr-18 mag-18 giu-18 lug-18 ago-18 set-18 ott-18 nov-18 dic-18

bn

of

Sm3

Monthly Balancing Session Adjustment Session

Percentage Variation -0,72%

✓ Liquidation finalized on 23 December 2019, SRG closed 100% of the regular positions

✓ Non-receipt invoices from some the UDBs for the DSK, for which no restitution has been made

2014-2017 MULTI YEAR ADJUSTMENT SESSION

✓ ARERA vs CSEA resolution for DSK and D / IO funds

✓ Relegation vs UDB

✓ Non-receipt of UDB invoices for the DSK

✓ Completed adjustment process for variance fees (Resolution 223/2018)

2018 YEAR ADJUSTMENT SESSION

News from Balancing Regime – Invoicing processes

58


• Cases of deviation fees caused by the uncontrolledand unrelated release of natural gas for damage tothe pipeline of the distribution network whichrequired tanker lorries

• The TSO determines the amount of gas escaped ofeach UdB, with detail per UdD

Resolution 554/2019/R/GAS

• Requests for the correction of the balance canbe considered inadmissible if too general,incorrectly detailed or clearly pretentious.

• In any case, if the request cannot otherwise beremedied, it cannot be considered inadmissibleif there are clearly erroneous measurementdata, such as to impact on Dsk, even if the errorin the measurement data was not caused bythe TSO

• TSOs define an operational procedure thatidentifies how to handle requests related toAdjustment Sessions, involved subjects andrelated responsibilities.


• After the execution of the first and secondadjustment sessions, Years from 2013 to 2017,significant number of city gates with divergentDelta IO from the average one found at nationallevel (in fact, 0.004)

• Approval of a program of 4 inspective verifications• Carried out by March 31, 2020

Regulatory framework

Resolutions

Thank you for your attention!

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