back to the moon
TRANSCRIPT
© 2016 by Stephen Fleming. Images from public domain or fair use.
Back to the Moon
Stephen Fleming [email protected]
@stephenfleming
9/3/2016 Back to the Moon
Augustine Committee, 2009
“The Committee concludes that the ultimate goal of human exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system.”
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Augustine Committee, 2009
“Humanity should become a spacefaring civilization… If that is not the point of human spaceflight, what the hell are we doing?”
— Chris Chyba, Princeton
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We Went to the Moon Too Early
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...in the wrong way...
...for the wrong reasons... …and we never went back!
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What Happened to Human Flight?
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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 …
Wright Flyer
Junkers J-1 First all-metal airplane
DC-3
Me 262 First jet airplane
First supersonic flight
Sputnik I
Apollo 11
Yuri Gagarin
Last Apollo Mission
First Shuttle Launch
ISS Continuously Occupied
First private launch to ISS
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What Happened to Human Flight?
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1910 1920 1930 1950 1960 1980 1990 2000 2020 …
Wright Flyer First supersonic flight
44 years From first flight to
breaking the sound barrier.
44 years From the last Moon landing to… going around in circles.
Now
Last Apollo Mission
1900 1940 1970 2010
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Earth-Moon System (to scale)
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240,000 Miles
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ISS Orbit (to scale)
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8000 Miles
250 Miles
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No Humans Past LEO since 1972
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We’ve been going around in circles in Low Earth Orbit for 44 years.
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Even Moses Only Wandered 40 Years!
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What happened?
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Where Did We Go Wrong?
“First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.”
—Pres. Kennedy, May 1961
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Where Did We Go Wrong?
“First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.”
—Pres. Kennedy, May 1961
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Decision Made: Flags and Footprints
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From Day One—not a model which could get traction on Wall Street!
Forty years later, what remains of the Moon missions?
Zero presence. Zero industry. Zero infrastructure. Zero economic value.
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What if we tried something
different this time?
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Vision for Space Exploration
We tried that in 2004 with the “Vision for Space Exploration.” –“Apollo on steroids” –Launchers, capsules, and
lunar landers, oh my! –Hijacked by existing fiefdoms
thinking happy days were here again.
–Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
–Mostly cancelled in 2009/10.
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What if we tried something really
different this time?
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Back to the Moon? Or On to Mars?
“Now, I understand that some believe that we should attempt a return to the surface of the Moon first. But I just have to say pretty bluntly here: We’ve been there before.”
—Pres. Obama, April 2010
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Back to the Moon? Or On to Mars?
“For the United States… no human exploration capability to go beyond Earth orbit for an indeterminate time into the future destines our nation to become one of second or even third-rate stature.”
—Neil Armstrong, April 2010
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Reasons to Go Back to the Moon
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1. What we can learn there. 2. What we can learn how to do there. 3. What we can do there. 4. Where we can go next from there.
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What We Can Learn There
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Understanding the formation of the Solar System
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What We Can Learn There
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Understanding how the Moon split off from the Earth.
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What We Can Learn There
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Farside Observatory: Best location
in the Solar System for radio astronomy
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What We Can Learn There
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Science!
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Reasons to Go Back to the Moon
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1. What we can learn there. 2. What we can learn how to do there. 3. What we can do there. 4. Where we can go next from there.
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What We Can Learn How to Do There
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Gravity
1.0Zero 0.60.40.2 0.8 1.2
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Healthy!
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ISS
Unhealthy
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We Only Have Two Data Points!
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Gravity
1.0Zero 0.60.40.2 0.8 1.2
Wellb
ein
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We just don’t know.
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?
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Learn How to Thrive in Low Gravity
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Gravity
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The Moon becomes the most valuable real estate in the system.
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What We Can Learn How to Do There
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Water-only recycling: 93% efficient
Closing the loop on life support
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Space is Radioactive!
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(Too much) radiation is not good for children and other living things…
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What We Can Learn How to Do There
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Buried habitats for radiation shielding
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What We Can Learn How to Do There
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Truly isolated operations (but only 3 days from Earth)
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Dr. Jerri Nielsen, 1999
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Reasons to Go Back to the Moon
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1. What we can learn there. 2. What we can learn how to do there. 3. What we can do there. 4. Where we can go next from there.
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What We Can Do There
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A new world to explore…
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The Moon is Earth’s Eighth Continent!
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Landmass Area (sq km)
Asia 43,820,000
Moon 37,900,000
Africa 30,370,000
North America 24,490,000
South America 17,840,000
Antarctica 13,720,000
Europe 10,180,000
Australia 9,008,500
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Total of Six Apollo Landing Sites
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Six football fields, in a land bigger
than Africa.
Apollo: Equatorial orbits, easy ∆V for rendezvous, nothing on Farside at all.
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Voyages of Columbus
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What We Can Do There
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Glory!
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What We Can Do There
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Mining!
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What We Can Do There
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Planet-hopping gets cheaper with
lunar mining!
Primary goal isn’t science or “flags and footprints”… it’s spreading humanity through the solar system.
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What We Can Do There
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Resource prospecting: Moon Express launching in 2017
Competing for Google Lunar X Prize
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What We Can Do There
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Lunar mining:
In Situ Resource Utilization Effective teleoperations
Vacuum chemistry Dust control
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What We Can Do There
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Ice!Water to drink and irrigate crops Hydrogen for fuel Oxygen to breathe Chemical feedstock
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The Lunar South Pole is Unique
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JAXA K
AG
UYA
vid
eo
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Permanently Shadowed Craters
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JAXA K
AG
UYA
vid
eo
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Permanently Shadowed Craters
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The Moon Gets Hit… A Lot!
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All those craters came from somewhere!
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Comet Shoemaker-Levy, 1994
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Remember?
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Comets are Dirty Snowballs
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Shadowed Craters Act as “Cold Traps”
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Lunar “Geology” is Complex
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Distribution of iron oxide
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Lunar “Geology” is Complex
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Distribution of titanium oxide
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What Can You Mine/Make on the Moon?
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Iron Aluminum
Titanium Silicon
Glass
Oxygen Hydrogen
Regolith …and more
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What We Can Do There
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Send lunar materials to build space-based solar power satellites
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We’ve Gotten Good at Orbital Assembly
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…but at $10,000/pound from Earth, it doesn’t matter.
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Solar-Powered Mass Driver
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What We Can Do There
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Platinum- group metals
(maybe)
@ 2
012
Was
hing
ton
Post
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Extract Helium-3 (double maybe!)
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Reasons to Go Back to the Moon
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1. What we can learn there. 2. What we can learn how to do there. 3. What we can do there. 4. Where we can go next from there.
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Earth-Moon System (to scale)
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240,000 Miles
At this scale, the Sun is 2.4 screens wide and 250 screenwidths away.
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Earth-Moon System (to scale)
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EML1 EML2
Moon
Geosync
GPS
LEO➔
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Rubber Sheet Model of Gravity
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In space, transport costs are measured in energy,
not time or distance.
(Unless you have passengers.)
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Lagrange Points (to scale)
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EML1 EML2
Moon
Geosync➔
EML4
EML5
EML3 60°
60°
Gravitationally semi-stable for
small bodies (like space stations)
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Earth-Moon System (to scale)
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EML1 “Halo” Orbit
Van Allen Belts
Lunar Distant Retrograde
Orbit (DRO)
Interesting places for the cislunar economy
➔
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Cislunar Trade Routes
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Geosync
EML-1 to Lunar Surface EML-1 to DRO EML-1 to NEOs, elsewhere…
EML1
Moon
Very low energy trajectories to Lunar destinations, Near-Earth Objects, and even asteroids.
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Cislunar Trade Routes
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Geosync
LEO to EML-1 GEO to EML-1
EML1
Moon
Servicing GEO from EML1 requires 4% of the energy as reaching GEO from Earth’s surface!
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Cislunar Trade Routes
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Geosync
LEO to EML-1 GEO to EML-1
EML-1 to Lunar Surface EML-1 to DRO EML-1 to NEOs, elsewhere…
EML1
Moon
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Rubber Sheet Model of Gravity
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Orbital Energy Requirements: ∆V2
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40
80
120
(km/sec)2
Earth Surface
LEO
GEO EML1 DRO LLO NEOMars Orbit
Lunar Surface
Ceres
Venus Orbit
Martian Surface
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The First Step is a Doozy!
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40
80
120
(km/sec)2
Earth Surface
LEO
GEO EML1 DRO LLO NEOMars Orbit
Lunar Surface
Ceres
Venus Orbit
Martian Surface
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Why Mars Landings Should Wait…
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40
80
120
(km/sec)2
Earth Surface
LEO
GEO EML1 DRO LLO NEOMars Orbit
Lunar Surface
Ceres
Venus Orbit
Martian Surface
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The Flat Spot is the Sweet Spot!
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40
80
120
(km/sec)2
Earth Surface
LEO
GEO EML1 DRO LLO NEOMars Orbit
Lunar Surface
Ceres
Venus Orbit
Martian SurfaceEML1 can become the hub of a thriving cislunar economy.
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EML1 Station: Access to Deep Space
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EML1: Geosync Satellite Servicing
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EML1: Midpoint for Lunar Elevator
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EML1: Staging Point for Asteroids
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EML1: Interplanetary Superhighway
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EML1: Interplanetary Superhighway
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EML1
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EML1: Three Days from Home!
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We Need to Go Back to the Moon!
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If God wanted man to become
a spacefaring species, He would have
given Earth a moon.
—Krafft Ehricke
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We Need to Go Back to the Moon!
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We Need to Go Back to the Moon!
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© 2016 by Stephen Fleming. Images from public domain or fair use.
Back to the Moon
Download this at:
files.academicvc.com
@stephenfleming
…this time to stay!