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Techno Funda Report B P W E A L T H Super 7 Picks - November 2013

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Page 1: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

Techno Funda Report B P W E A L T H

Super 7 Picks - November 2013

Page 2: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

Techno Funda Report - November 2013

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

1st November, 2013

Research Team [email protected]

022-61596173

Index

Company Recommendation Price (Rs) Entry Range (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Stop Loss (Rs) Page No.

Apollo Tyres Ltd. Buy 74 73-71 85 67 1

Bharat Heavy Electronics Ltd. Buy 144 138 165 128 2

Canara Bank Buy 265 252-246 280 232 3

Colgate Palmolive (I) Ltd. Buy 1 248 CMP 1 450 1 150 4

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. Buy 206 CMP 235 191 5

Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd. Buy 204 198-194 230 182 6

UPL Ltd. Buy 165 162-158 190 147 7

Page 3: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

Techno Funda Report - November 2013

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

Performance Tracker

Techno Funda Return For June, 2013 : 1.2% , Nifty Return For June, 2013 : -2.4%

Performance Tracker June 2013

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 HDFC Bank Ltd Sell 701-710 650 Target Achieved

2 Hexaware Technologies Ltd Buy 80-78 88/ 92 Profit booked at 86

3 ICICI Bank Ltd Sell 1154-1170 1080/ 1040 Target Achieved

4 Idea Cellular Ltd Sell 131-133 120/ 114 Stop Loss Triggered

5 Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,390-1,370 1,500/ 1,520 Profit booked at 1457

6 Maruti Suzuki Ltd Sell 1,620-1,630 1,520/ 1,480 Not Initiated

7 NTPC Ltd Buy 153-150 165/ 170 Stop Loss Triggered

Performance Tracker July 2013

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 ACC Ltd. Buy 1,210-1,200 1,320/ 1,350 Profit booked at 1284

2 Bharti Airtel Ltd. Buy 288-283 325 Target Achieved

3 Financial Technologies Buy 775-770 870 Stop Loss Triggered

4 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. Buy 1,640-1,620 1,770/ 1,800 Target Achieved

5 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Sell CMP 525 Stop Loss Triggered

6 Reliance Capital Ltd. Buy 328-325 375 Not Initiated

7 Rural Electrification Corp Ltd. Buy 196-193 220 Profit booked at 207

Techno Funda Return For July, 2013 : 3.2% , Nifty Return For July, 2013 : 0.8%

3.8%

0.5%2.7%

-4.7%

-0.7%

3.3% 2.0%

-2.4%

0.8%

-7.0%

6.6% 8.1%

3.6%

6.6%

1.5%

-0.5%

0.7%

-0.3%

4.5%

1.2%3.2%

0.6%

6.2%4.7%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT

Nifty Return Techno Funda Return

Page 4: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

Techno Funda Report - November 2013

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

Techno Funda Return For August, 2013 : 0.6% , Nifty Return For August, 2013 : -7.0%

Performance Tracker October 2013

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Asian Paints Ltd. Sell 475-485 410 Stop Loss Triggered

2 Bank of Baroda Buy 485-475 550 / 580 Target Achieved

3 Bata India Ltd. Buy 845-835 930 Target Achieved

4 Cairn India Ltd. Buy 315-310 360 Exit at 322

5 Exide Industries Ltd. Buy 125 145 Exit at 125

6 GAIL (India) Ltd. Buy 320-315 360 Profit Booked at 352

7 Siemens Ltd. Buy 470-460 530 / 550 Target Achieved

Techno Funda Return For October, 2013 : 4.7% , Nifty Return For October, 2013 : 8.1%

Performance Tracker August 2013

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Buy 345-340 390 Stop Loss Triggered

2 CESC Ltd. Sell 335-340 290 / 280 Target Achieved

3 Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. Sell 2,310-2,330 2,050 Target Achieved

4 Exide Industries Ltd. Buy 125-123 145 / 150 Profit booked at 134

5 Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. Buy 625-615 725 Stop Loss Triggered

6 Tata Power Co. Ltd. Buy 85 100 / 105 Stop Loss Triggered

7 Voltas Ltd. Buy Above 87 105 Not Initiated

Performance Tracker September 2013

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Cairn India Ltd Buy 320-315 340 / 355 Profit Booked at 339

2 Century Textiles Ltd Buy 217-210 240 / 255 Target Achieved

3 Hindalco Ltd Buy 100-95 115 / 120 Not Initiated

4 IndusInd Bank Ltd Buy 345-337 400 / 420 Target Achieved

5 Infosys Ltd Buy 3,100-3,050 3,375 / 3,450 Exit at 3,007

6 LIC Housing Finance Ltd Buy Above 170 205 Stop Loss Triggered

7 Maruti Suzuki Ltd Buy Above 1,270 1,450 Target Achieved

Techno Funda Return For September, 2013 : 6.2% , Nifty Return For September, 2013 : 6.6%

Page 5: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Daily Chart)

Automobile

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock is moving in an upsloping formation and is placed around the upper trendline, a breakout from the formation will make the medium term trend bullish. Also within the formation the stock has given an upward breakout of a bullish consolidation price pattern which is a bullish signal for short term trend and suggests the stock to resume its previous upmove. We recommend to BUY APOLLO-TYRES in the range of 73-71 with a stop loss of 67 for the target of 85 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Acquisition of Cooper Tyres may be called off

Apollo Tyres and Cooper Tires had announced a definitive merger agreement under which Apollo Tyres will acquire Cooper Tires in an all cash transaction valuing the firm at USD 2.5bn (USD 35 per share). The acquisition would be funded entirely through debt and we therefore we believe this would be very negative for short to medium term. However, due to the recent issue related to employees of Cooper Tyres plant and ongoing negotiation with Cooper Tyre’s management on deal price, there is a high probability of cancelling the deal and we believe the stock will perform positive after this devel-opment.

Improvement in demand from OEMs and replacement segment

Due to festive season, we believe there will be higher uptick in demand from OEMs and therefore, we believe the company would deliver higher volume based on higher OEMs demand. In addition, we believe replacement market should show traction in demand which would help the company to deliver higher realization. In addition, South African operation has shown a sustained rise in demand and the European operation is expected to show moderate revenue growth.

Lower natural rubber prices would improve the margin picture

The natural rubber prices are trading at lower levels of ~Rs 160 per Kg which will help the company to deliver higher operating margin (current EBITDA Margin of ~12%) in upcoming quarters.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 85

Stop loss (Rs) 67

Buying Range (Rs) 73-71

Last Close Price (Rs) 74

% change daily 6.65

Daily Oscillator Direction

13 DMA Upwards

21 DMA Upwards

50 DMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Apollo Tyres Ltd.

1

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 500877

NSE Symbol APOLLOTYRE

Bloomberg APTY IN

Reuters APLO.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52WeekH/L(Rs) 101/55

O/s Shares (mn) 504

Market Cap (Rs bn) 37

Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 3,763,512

6 months 5,797,264

1 year 4,220,172

Breakout from Bullish Consolidation Price Pattern

Upsloping Formation

Page 6: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Daily Chart)

Heavy Electrical Equipments

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock has reversed after completing an impulse wave and is currently retracing this wave, after completing the correction the stock is expected to start a fresh upmove. Also it is forming Flag a bull-ish continuation price pattern which has a breakout at 151, after the breakout the stock is expected to resume its previous upmove. We recommend to BUY BHEL at 138 with a stop loss of 128 for the target of 165 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Demand for power to takeoff in the near term

With the recent slow down in the power sector due to slow progress in award of new power projects, fuel linkage issues and also being highly capital intensive sector has impacted the over all business of the company. India is expected to see sharp rise in demand for power in next 5-10 years like we have seen in western countries due to rise in urbanization and improvement in standard of living. This will ensure the our country will continue to have demand for power. The sector is also expected to rebound due to various steps taken by the govertment to rejuvenate this sector. These steps shall increase the demand for power generation equipments.

During FY14 15 GW of tenders expected

The company has registered order inflow to the tune of Rs 1,468 cr in Q1FY14. Order backlog stands at Rs. 1,08,600 cr. During the quarter Rs 1,200 cr order from Iraq was also cancelled as it was not moving for last two years. The company expects 15GW of orders to tender out in FY14 of which it expects to bag 11 GW of orders. This shows the company's potential to bag large size orders and strong execution skills.

Outlook

The company continues to be the best power equipment company in India due to its healthy profit-ability, superior execution capability and strong track record. The company would benefit when we see revival in power equipment market in the near term which makes it a good bet for investment.

Execution Data

Target (Rs.) 165

Stop Loss (Rs.) 128

Buying Range (Rs.) 138

Last Close Price (Rs.) 144

% change daily 1.7

Daily Oscillator Direction

13 DMA Upwards

21 DMA Upwards

50 DMA Upwards

RSI Buy mode

MACD Buy Mode

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited

2

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 500103

NSE Symbol BHEL

Bloomberg BHEL IN

Reuters BHEL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52WeekH/L(Rs) 248 / 100

O/s Shares (mn) 2,448

Market Cap (Rs bn) 345

Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 1,04,66,249

6 months 68,96,013

1 year 52,92,165

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(v), (1)

(2) ?

Page 7: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

B P W E A L T H

Technical View (Daily Chart)

Banking

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock has given upward breakout of Symmetrical triangle– a bullish continuation price pattern after which the stock is expected to resume its previous upmove. The breakout has come with a rise in volume which increases the reliability of the pattern. We recommend to BUY CANBANK in the range of 252-246 with a stop loss of 232 for the target of 280 in short term.

Investment Rationale

CASA ratio support the NIMs

During Q1FY14, despite run down of 13.4% in bulk deposits, bank was able to maintain the CASA ratio ~24.2%. The NIMs were at 2.2% in Q1FY14 and going forward management has guided to maintain the NIMs ~2.5-2.6%. We expect bank to maintain CASA ratio ~25% levels on back of branch expansion. Advances book during Q1FY14 grew by 11% on back of 38% & 16% growth in Agri loan book and MSME book respectively. Going forward bank expects to grow its loan book above the industry average.

Asset quality to improve

Despite the asset quality pressures in Q1FY14 management has guided higher recoveries going ahead. This will help the bank to contain GNPAs at current levels. During the quarter bank witnessed higher recoveries and upgrade. In Q1FY14, GNPAs & NNPAs increased to 2.9% & 2.5% with provi-sion coverage of 58.2%. During the quarter bank restructured loans worth of Rs 16830 mn. Going forward, we expect bank to contain GNPAs at the levels of 2.9% on back of higher recoveries.

Outlook & Valuations

Due to slower economic growth bank has seen weak asset quality in its books. Further, challenging times to add to these woes, however, we believe with strong focus on recoveries bank will be able to contain the GNPAs at current levels. Additionally the bank is expanding its branch network every year, which would help to improve its CASA ratio. At the CMP stock trades at 0.5x of its FY15E book value.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 280

Stop Loss (Rs) 232

Buying Range (Rs) 252-246

Last Close Price (Rs) 265

% Change daily 2.7

Daily Oscillator Direction

13 DMA Upwards

21 DMA Upwards

50 DMA Upwards

RSI Buy mode

MACD Buy mode

Canara Bank

3

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 532483

NSE Symbol CANBK

Bloomberg CBK IN

Reuters CNBK.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52 Week H/L (Rs) 550/190

O/s Shares (mn) 443

Market Cap (Rs bn) 114

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 2,361,554

6 months 1,757,753

1 year 1,370,544

Breakout from Symmetrical Triangle - a Bullish continuation price pattern

Page 8: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

FMCG

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock has reversed after getting support at the lower trendline which is drawn parallel to the up-

per trendline, a failure to violate the lower trendline will reverse the ongoing downmove. Also the

stock has completed a corrective wave a-b-c wherein wave c is equal to wave a. After completing this

corrective wave the stock is now expected to retrace this wave upwards, 61.80% retracement of this

corrective wave comes at 1430. We recommend to BUY COLPAL at CMP with a stop loss of 1150 for

the target of 1450 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Strategic innovations to drive volumes

Colgate Palmolive during Q2FY14 reported a 10% rise in volumes with 9% growth in toothpaste yoy.

Despite the current challenging environment the Company further enhanced its leadership position. It

registered a 56% volume market share for Jan-Sep'13 compared to 54.6% in Jan-Sep'12. The flag-

ship brands "Colgate Dental Cream", "Active Salt", "Max Fresh" and "Colgate Total" along with the

recently launched "Visible White" have contributed to this consistent growth.

Reduction in costs to drive margins

Despite the inflationary environment and pressure on the rupee, the Company’s focus on driving effi-

ciencies and reducing costs coupled with prudent price increases has resulted in higher Gross Mar-

gin and help to fund investments in building and strengthening brand equity and business. During

Q2FY14 gross margins were at 59.8%. Going forward, product mix improvements further to improve

margins.

Outlook & Valuations

On back of strong monsoon we expect rural consumption to improve hereon. This will be beneficial to

the company who is expanding its presence in rural area. We expect company to garner market

share with its various product innovations. At the CMP stock trades at 28x its FY15E EPS.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 1,450

Stop loss (Rs) 1,150

Buying Range (Rs) CMP

Last Close Price (Rs) 1,248

% change weekly (2.4)

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Colgate Palmolive (I) Ltd

4

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 500830

NSE Symbol COLPAL

Bloomberg CLGT IN

Reuters COLG.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1580/1190

O/s Shares (mn) 136

Market Cap (Rs bn) 169

Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 163,443

6 months 140,994

1 year 135,562

Parallel Channel

c ?

b

a

Wave c = Wave a

Page 9: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

Oil Marketing & Distribution

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 235

Stop Loss (Rs) 191

Buying Range (Rs) CMP

Last Close Price (Rs) 206

% change weekly 3.4

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock has reversed after completing a corrective wave a-b-c wherein wave b is equal to 50% retracement of wave a and wave c is equal to 123.60% (apx.) extension of wave a. Also the stock on its weekly chart has given confirmation to Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern which suggests the short term trend to turn bullish. We recommend to BUY IOC at CMP with a stop loss of 191 for the target of 235 in short term.

Diesel Price hike to reduce further under-recoveries

After Government’s approval of raising diesel price at slow pace regularly, the under-recoveries on diesel reduced significantly. In addition, the per unit under-recoveries on LPG is expected to de-crease after the arrangement of direct cash subsidy. We expect further hike diesel price and there-fore we expect the overall under-recoveries to reduce substantially going forward.

Many ongoing projects for refinery and pipelines

IOC has many ongoing projects for its refinery business which includes Paradip Refinery with capital outlay of ~ Rs 300bn which is expected to be complete by Q3FY1. In addition, the company has many pipeline projects at various places with capital outlay of ~Rs 65bn.

Decent quarterly performance

IOC’s revenue increased by 14% YoY to Rs 1.1tn on the back of robust sales volume and lower un-der-recoveries during Q1FY14. The under-recoveries stood at Rs 136bn during the quarter compared to Rs 187bn in Q4FY13 mainly on the back of higher diesel prices. However, rupee depreciation has offset the effect of hike in diesel prices. GRM improved from negative USD 4.8/bbl to USD 1.7/bbl in Q1FY14.

Outlook

Currently, the stock is trading at a standalone PE multiple of 8.5x and 6.9x for FY14 and FY15 re-spectively. The stock is looking attractive at this level considering declining under-recoveries and ongoing projects of refineries and pipelines.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.

5

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 530965

NSE Symbol IOC

Bloomberg IOCL IN

Reuters IOC.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52WeekH/L(Rs) 374/186

O/s Shares (bn) 2,428

Market Cap (Rs bn) 498

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 634,518

6 months 601,326

1 year 743,317

a

b

c ?

Wave b = 50% retracement of Wave a

Wave c = 123.60% Extension of Wave a

Inverted Hammer a bullish reversal candlestick pattern

Page 10: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

NBFC

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 230

Stop Loss (Rs) 182

Buying Range (Rs) 198-194

Last Close Price (Rs) 204

% change weekly 9.4

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock is forming Broadening wedges descending a bullish reversal price pattern which has a breakout at 220, a breakout from the formation will make the medium term trend bullish. Also within the pattern the stock has given upward breakout of Flag a bullish continuation price pattern which suggests the stock to resume its previous upmove. We recommend to BUY RECLTD in the range of 198-194 with a stop loss of 182 for the target of 230 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Healthy asset quality to continue

During Q1FY14 asset quality was stable with no major additions to slippages. The NPA coverage improved 470bps qoq to 22.9% but it is lower than those of banks. We have seen a incremental share of private-sector projects which may pose asset quality concerns in the near term. Manage-ment has decided to proactively build an 8bps standard asset provisioning over FY13-15. The re-structuring package for SEB’s augurs well for REC and will help it to improve its financial health in coming future. However, considering a structural issues in power sector we expect marginal increase in credit costs going forward.

Strong loan book to continue with higher sanctions

Strong disbursements in transmission and distribution segment has helped REC to consistently main-tain its growth rate in its loan book by 25% yoy to Rs. 1,329 bn during Q1FY14 which was also sup-ported by 46% yoy growth in private sector loans (13% of loans). Advances to T&D segment grew by 38% yoy to Rs 653bn. Generation loans now constitute 43% of loan book. Going forward, we expect some improvement in investment cycle supporting loan growth.

Outlook

Power sector currently is facing a structural issues which are likely to pose challenges for REC in short term. However, we believe government efforts to remove the bottlenecks and tariff hikes for SEBs to augur well for REC in long term. Its strong domain knowledge in power transmission and distribution gives an edge over its competitors in terms of risk & reward. Along with this higher NIMs to support the earning growth going forward makes it a good bet for investment.

Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd.

6

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 532944

NSE Symbol RECLTD

Bloomberg RECL IN

Reuters RURL BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52WeekH/L(Rs) 267/178

O/s Shares (mn) 988

Market Cap (Rs bn) 192

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 20,67,178

6 months 18,30,467

1 year 19,40,078

Broadening Wedges De-scending price pattern

Breakout from Flag a Bullish Continuation price pattern

Page 11: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

Agrochemicals

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 190

Stop Loss (Rs) 147

Buying Range (Rs) 162-158

Last Close Price (Rs) 165

% change weekly 5.3

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View The stock on its weekly chart has formed Inverted Head & Shoulders a bullish reversal price pattern and is currently placed around the neckline of the formation, a breakout from the pattern will make the medium term bullish. We recommend to BUY UPL in the range of 162-158 with a stop loss of 147 for the target of 190 in short term. Investment Rationale Industry leading position and diversified business model to fuel growth UPL is the third largest generics agrochemical company in the world and holds global leadership in 10 agrochemical products. The company to clock 12-14% growth in top line and margins are ex-pected be in the range of 18-20%. The company has the strategy to outsource manufacturing to low cost destinations like India which gives competitive advantage and helps the company to sustain margins and fight competition. No future acquisitions to improve cash flows The company has done 24 acquisitions in the last 10 years which helped it to achieve economies of scale and build a global delivery mechanism. The company has recently acquired DVA Agro Brazil which will help the company to have a strong presence in the Brazilian and fuel growth. The company will now decrease its investments in acquisitions and thus will generate healthy cash flows going for-ward. Impressive Q2 FY14 performance on account of rupee depreciation UPL top line grew by 25.6% y-o-y in Q2 FY14 to Rs 23.3 bn largely fueled by exchange rate which accounted for 13% while 12% was due to higher volumes and 1% due to price increase. EBITDA margins expanded by 70 bps y-o-y to 18.3% primarily due to price hike and rise in sale oh higher margin products offset by higher raw material price. India performance was good due to good mon-soon and Latin America improved due to early start of season in Brazil and good growth in Mexico region. Valuations attractive Management has guided for a organic growth of 12-14% in FY14E and EBITDA margins to expand 100 bps in FY14E. Business from Australia, Europe and North America which was impacted due to bad weather will normalize in H2FY14 and will contribute to top line growth. The stock is available at a valuation of ~7x FY15E earnings which we believe is cheap compared to its global peers thus we recommend a BUY on the stock.

UPL Ltd.

7

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral Stock

BSE code 512070

NSE Symbol UPL

Bloomberg UPLL IN

Reuters UPLL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 6,307

52 Week H/L (Rs) 168/102

O/s Shares (mn) 442.6

Market Cap (Rs bn) 73.0

Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 2,720,251

6 months 2,452,313

1 year 2,313,095

S

H

S ?

Inverted Head & Shoulders - a Bullish Reversal Price Pattern

Page 12: B P Techno Funda Report - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...Techno Funda Report - November 2013 BP Equities Private Limited () B P W E A L T H 1st November, 2013 Research Team research@bpwealth.com

Research Desk Tel: +91 22 61596406 / 6173

Disclaimer Appendix

General Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by the research department of BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. and BP EQUITIES Pvt. Ltd, is for information purposes only. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.

BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. and BP EQUITIES Pvt. Ltd have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authen-ticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or com-pleteness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time. Prospective investors are cautioned that any forward looking statement are not predictions and are subject to change without prior notice.

Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.

BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other rea-sons that prevent us from doing so.

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We analysts and the authors of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our per-sonal views about any and all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the BP Equities Pvt. Ltd. (Institutional Equities).

Analyst (s) holding in the Stock : Nil

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