Session 2:Providing Key Decision‐Making Tools – ICAO Aviation Data 

Analysis

Tehran, 20‐23 February 2017

Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar

Objectives:

To foster the development of a sound and economically viable air transport system

New SO reflects the needs for ICAO’s leadership in developing and harmonizing the global regulatory framework

Helps focus ICAO’s work to meet the need of Member States and aviation stakeholders

Economic Development of Air TransportKey activities :

Economic policy, air transport regulation and oversight: Develop air transport policy/guidance Promote harmonization

Financing of the air transport system (user charges and taxes)

Funding of air transport infrastructure Aviation data, forecasting and analysis

Collect and disseminate data and statistics Develop traffic forecasts Conduct economic analysis

New ICAO Strategic Objective

FORECASTING

ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil  aviation matters

Economic Development of air transport

EnvironmentalProtection

Security andFacilitation

Air Navigation Capacity & Efficiency

Safety

Sustainable Air transportDevelopment

MARKET ANALYSIS

STATISTICS

POLICIES

Monitoring Air ICAO SOs: Aviation Data a Vital Tool

If you cannot measure it, You cannot improve it.

Sir Benjamin Kelvin 

• High quality Statistics and accessible for all

• Impartial & strictly based on highest professional standards

• Public informed about mandate for Statistics work

• Concepts, definitions, classifications, sources, methods and procedures,

transparent for users

• Use of appropriate and cost-effective sources & methods for data collection

• Confidentiality rules strictly kept and data used for Statistical purposes only

Principles governing international statistical activities (UNO)

• Know your data sources

• Understand the meaning of the data

• Know the data limitations and make allowances for them

• Apply UNO principles related to Statistics

• If in doubt, ask

Best practices

The ICAO Statistics Programme

Chicago Convention (Art.  54, 55, and 67)

“Each contracting State undertakes that its international airlines shall, in accordance with requirements laid down by the Council, file with the Council traffic reports, cost statistics and financial statements showing among other things all 

receipts and the sources thereof.”

Mandate for the ICAO Statistics Programme

Assembly

Council

Statistics PanelStatistics Division

Air Transport Committee

Assembly Resolutions (A38‐14, App.  B): Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation and storage Integrated Statistical Database 

provides Contracting States and other users with an efficient online system for the retrieval of statistical data;

Requests the Council, calling on national experts in the relevant disciplines as required, to examine on a regular basis the statistical data collected by ICAO and  etc…

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeFoundations

• Monitor  ICAO Strategic Objectives− Air travel safety rates− The environmental impact on air transport (fuel efficiency)− The sustainable air transport development (traffic growth, financial situation, etc..)

• Analyze the air transport market• Assess the impact of new regulations• Forecasting• Plan the development of airport and ANS facilities• Negotiate bilateral agreements• Implement future strategies• Calculate the individual financial contribution of States

Why Do We Need Statistics?

Air carrier ANSP Airport

State

For each State:

Traffic – Forms  A, A‐S, B and CFleet and personnel – Form DFinance – Form E‐FFuel consumption – Form M

Traffic – Forms  I and I‐SFinance – Form J

Traffic – Form LFinance – Form K

Civil aircraft registered – Form H

Aviation personnel– Form NAll forms + 

Different data sources for different purposes

Each has different coverage, level of detail, limitations on use, and

produced on their own cycleOther data providers

Traffic,  Fleet,  Financial dataetc.  …

Sources of Datahttp://www.icao.int/sustainability/pages/eap‐sta‐excel.aspx

States

collection, verification

clarification, correction, reminders

validationICAODATA+

Analysis, modelled missing data,… States

External stakeholders

EAP(ISDB database)

Forms submission

EAP/ATB

Statistics Collection and Dissemination

Traffic is for scheduled services

13

3.5 billion passengers 34 million departures 51 million tonnes of freight Over 1 400 scheduled airlines  More than 27 000 aircraft  More than 4 130 airports 173 air navigation centres

The Size of the Industry in 2015 

 ‐

 50

 100

 150

 200

 250

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Revenu

e Pa

ssen

ger‐Kilometres

(billion)

Oil

cris

is

Gul

f war Asi

an c

risis

Iran-

Iraq

war

SAR

S

9/11

terr

oris

t at

tack

Wor

ld

rece

ssio

n

FreightTonne‐Kilometres

(billion)

Growth of air transport

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services14Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

198billion FTK

+1.7%growth rate vs. 2014

6.6trillion RPK+7.1%growth rate vs. 2014

Air transport by region in 2015

15

Passengers carried (million)Aircraft departures (million)

Revenue Passenger‐Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne‐Kilometres (billion)

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services15Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

1.0

9.8

8.3

2.9

1.2

10.8

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

74.0

1,205.7

927.8

260.2

186.7

878.5

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

142.9

2,108.4

1,765.1

349.4

606.4

1,629.2

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

3.3

78.1

43.1

5.7

28.0

39.3

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

+1.6%

+6.0%

+2.4%+2.7%

+5.0%

-0.3%

+1.6%

+9.1%+6.6%

+5.1%

+7.5%

+4.8%

+2.4%

+9.2%+5.8%

+7.8%

+10.3%

+5.1%

-0.4%

-0.4%-5.2%

-2.5%+12.4%

+2.3%

Rank State Percentage Increase in ASK

1 China 17%2 United Arab Emirates 15%3 Turkey 17%4 Qatar 19%5 Canada 11%6 Spain 12%7 Ireland 8%8 Germany 4%9 United States 2%10 Japan 8%11 Republic of Korea 5%12 Mexico 22%13 United Kingdom 2%14 India 8%15 Oman 37%16 Hungary 18%17 Philippines 10%18 Brazil 14%19 Ethiopia 16%20 France 3%

International capacity growth – Top 20 in terms of ASK Top 20 new routes in ASK in 2015City Pair Country Pair

Istanbul ‐ San Francisco Turkey – United StatesAbu Dhabi ‐ Brisbane United Arab Emirates ‐ Australia

Taipei ‐ Istanbul China ‐ TurkeyIstanbul ‐ Jakarta Turkey ‐ Indonesia

Dubai ‐ Denpasar‐Bali United Arab Emirates ‐ IndonesiaHong Kong ‐ Boston China ‐ United StatesMelbourne ‐ Beijing Australia ‐ ChinaHouston ‐ Taipei United States ‐ China

Edinburgh ‐ Abu Dhabi United Kingdom ‐ United Arab EmiratesOrlando ‐ Dubai United States ‐ United Arab EmiratesDallas ‐ Beijing United States ‐ ChinaBrisbane ‐ Tokyo Australia ‐ JapanIstanbul ‐Manila Turkey ‐ Philippines

Sao Paulo ‐ Addis Ababa Brazil ‐ EthiopiaSalt Lake City ‐ Amsterdam United States ‐ NetherlandsGuangzhou ‐ San Francisco China ‐ United States

Vancouver ‐ Osaka Canada ‐ JapanSan Jose ‐ Beijing United States ‐ ChinaNairobi ‐ Hanoi Kenya ‐ Vietnam

Osaka ‐ Los Angeles Japan ‐ United States

Capacity growth stimulating traffic

16Source: ICAO ASK: Available Seat‐Kilometres

RankNo. City and airport code

Passenger (thousand) 2015/2014

Movements (thousand)

2015/2014

2015 2014 (%) 2015 2014 (%)1 Atlanta (ATL) 101,491  96,179  5.5 882 868 1.72 Beijing (PEK) 89,939  86,128  4.4 590 582 1.43 Dubai (DXB) 78,015  70,476  10.7 407 357 13.94 Chicago (ORD) 76,950  69,999  9.9 875 882 ‐0.85 Tokyo (HND) 75,573  72,827  3.8 439 426 2.96 London (LHR) 74,990  73,408  2.2 474 473 0.27 Los Angeles (LAX) 74,937  70,663  6.0 656 637 2.98 Hong Kong (HKG) 68,488  63,122  8.5 406 391 3.89 Paris (CDG) 65,767  63,814  3.1 476 471 1.010 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) 64,174  63,554  1.0 681 680 0.211 Istanbul (IST) 61,323  56,716  8.1 447 440 1.612 Frankfurt (FRA) 61,032  59,566  2.5 468 469 ‐0.213 Shanghai (PVG) 60,098  51,688  16.3 449 402 11.714 Amsterdam (AMS) 58,285  54,978  6.0 466 453 2.815 New York (JFK) 56,827  53,255  6.7 439 422 4.016 Singapore (SIN) 55,449  54,093  2.5 351 347 1.217 Guangzhou (CAN) 55,202  54,780  0.8 410 412 ‐0.618 Jakarta (CGK) 54,054  57,221  ‐5.5 380 391 ‐2.819 Denver (DEN) 54,015  53,473  1.0 548 566 ‐3.220 Bangkok (BKK) 52,384  46,423  12.8 320 294 8.821 San Francisco (SFO) 50,058  47,115  6.2 430 432 ‐0.522 Incheon (ICN) 49,413  45,662  8.2 308 293 5.223 Kuala Lumpur (KUL) 48,929  48,930  0.0 353 341 3.624 Madrid (MAD) 46,780  41,834  11.8 367 343 7.025 New Delhi (DEL) 45,982  39,753  15.7 349 324 7.9

Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council, ACI

Top 25 airports in 2015 passenger traffic

17

State of Air Transport

18

New document

Regional and world analysis of Air Transport of the previous year.

New challenges:• Enhancement of the ICAO Statistics Programme’s Forms in collaboration with 

International Organizations in order to harmonize as much as possible the Forms sent to ICAO Member States in a view of rationalization of the requests sent by ICAO and other International Organizations.

• Creation of a Multi‐Disciplinary Working Group for the development of a single set of long‐term forecasts for ICAO

• Impact on the way of working of the TFGs at a regional level

First Meeting of the Aviation Data and Analysis Panel  (ADAP/1)

ADAP/1 (ex‐STAP/15)Montréal ‐ April 2014

Indicators for monitoring purposes such as Liberalization pace 

Forecasts & economic analyses and studies

Enhanced transparency of aviation policies

Air TransportStatistics

Statistics Derived Products 

Dissemination and use of Aviation Data

ICAO e‐tools

22

https://www4.icao.int/etools/

eTools: 9 modules

Traffic Trends: Visualize on the same chart Revenue Passenger‐Kilometres (RPK) and Revenue Tonnes‐Kilometres (RTK) by State/Region since the 70s.

Air Law Treaty: Visualize on a map the States that have signed and ratified AIr Transport Conventions, Protocols and Agreements.

Airport Punctuality: average indicator that expresses the number of daily departures which were on‐time or delayed less than 15 minutes. Specifically, these indicators represent a score of departure performance at an airport.

Connection diagram: show scheduled direct flight connections which exist between the different countries in the world.

State Traffic (departures): information about scheduled commercial departures by State for the past years.

Fleet information: aggregated information on number of aircraft and models as registered in ICAO Member States.

Airport: shows all scheduled departures for 2013 per airport as well as the number of physical runway.

Traffic Map: Visualize route and city‐pair traffic on a map.

WASA Map: Visualize bilateral agreements on a map.

25

Traffic trends module

Source: International scheduled departures, ISDB Forms A, C, RCA and OAG

Visualize traffic trends in Revenue Passenger‐Kilometres (RPK) and Revenue Tonnes‐Kilometres (RTK) of airlines registered in a State

26

Air Law Treaty

Visualize on a map the Treaties, Conventions or Protocols signed and ratified by a State

Airport punctuality

Connection diagram – direct flights

State traffic ‐ Departures

Fleet information

Airport

Traffic Map

…Click on a particular route

33

Traffic map

Source: International scheduled departures, ISDB Forms A, C, RCA and OAG

Visualize on a map the number of flights by city‐pair and market share of airlines

34

World Air Services Agreements Map

Source: WASA database, International scheduled departures, ISDB Forms A, C, RCA and OAG

Visualize bilateral agreements between Member States and identify country pairs with traffic 

ICAO Website: Facts & Figures

Key figures

Analyze the air transport marketAnalysis

The ICAO Monthly Monitor is available online

ICAO Website: Monthly Monitor

Snapshots and analyses of economic indicators at a State level

Snapshots and analyses of air transport indicatorsat a State level

Reporting status at the State level

Air transport regulation matters and development

Economic and Air Transport Indicators

Economic Analyses

Scope of the studiesanalyses how differences in operations and input prices may affect their levels and the impact that changes in costs may have on air transport tariffs, on a regional basis.

• all international routes aggregated into 17 route groups. • passenger, freight and mail yield data for scheduled services• regional differences in the costs on a route group basis

• major causes of regional differences in costs

Used by IATA for prorating airline passenger revenues from interline journeys

Studies on Regional Differences in International Airline Operating Economics

• ICAO• CO2• Reporting and • Analysis System

ICORAS 

A joint project in the Air Transport Bureau between • Environment (ENV)• Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section

ICORAS

Member StatesThrough the ICAO Statistics Programme:

Form M: Form on performed fuel consumption by commercial air carriers

clarification, correction, reminders collection, 

verification,validation

Integration of the reported performed fuel consumption into a model developed by ICAO

Performed fuel consumed validated by ICAO covers 

half of the world international scheduled traffic**: expressed in 2011 Revenue Tonne‐Kilometers

Reporting and Analysis System

Integration of actual performed fuel consumption with modelled fuel consumption developed by ICAO

ICORAS

Reported performed dataICAO Air Transport Reporting Forms

Estimated data

TRAFFIC ‐world coverage• Annual Report of the Council 

(>90% of performed traffic reported in Form A)

• OAG (airline schedules)

FUEL ‐world coverage• ICAO Fuel formula (developed in‐house)

• Revenue Cost Analysis (RCA)

TRAFFIC• Form A: Traffic by commercial air carriers

• Form C: Traffic by flight stage 

• Form M*: Traffic and fuel consumption by commercial air carriers

FUEL• Form M: Traffic and fuel consumption by 

commercial air carriers

*The Council in its 190th Session in May 2010 approved the recommendations of STA/10 for the collection of Form M starting from the year 2010

Measure progress toward 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement aspirational goal

ICORAS ‐ Data Inputs

• ICAO Member States report fuel consumption of their own air carriers and not by State of Departure

• To properly report to UNFCCC, the fuel consumption by State of Departure of the Aircraft needs to be derived

…and Impact on the Different Reporting Systems

Year Fuel Burn (Bn Litres)

RTK (Bn) ATK (Bn) FB/RTK (Litres/RTK)

FB/ATK (Litres/ATK)

2010 157.6 431.5 641.1 0.3653 0.2462011 168.2 453.5 688.5 0.3709 0.244YoY 6.7% 5.1% 7.4% 1.5% ‐0.6%

Year Fuel Burn (MT)

RTK (Bn) ATK (Bn) FB/RTK (kg/RTK)

FB/ATK (kg/ATK)

2010 127.7 431.5 641.1 0.2959 0.1992011 136.2 453.5 688.5 0.3004 0.198YoY 6.7% 5.1% 7.4% 1.5% ‐0.6%

ICORAS Preliminary Results

Aviation Data and Analysis Panel2nd meeting

ADAP/2

Montreal, 28 to 30 March 2017 Panel members, alternates, advisers, and observers from 35 States and 9 international organizations. the panel will examine -- items under its agenda:

Agenda item 1: Report on the outcome of the 39th Session of the Assembly Agenda Item 2: Development of the Aviation Satellite Account (ASA) methodological framework Agenda Item 3: Review of the reporting status with respect to ICAO Statistics Programme, and the process of completing

data sets not reported by Member States Agenda Item 4: Modernization of the ICAO Statistics Programme, including changes in the ICAO Air Transport Reporting

Forms Agenda Item 5: Contribution to CAEP’s work on the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) elements of the global

market-based measure (MBM) scheme Agenda Item 6: Development of methodologies to collect, process and analyse Big Data Agenda Item 7: Further refinement of the methodologies of the long-term traffic forecasts Agenda Item 8: Development of forecasts of licensed aviation professionals Agenda Item 9: Examination of a proposal on the framework of a Global Air Transport Plan Agenda Item 10: Any other business

46

ADAP/2

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