aviation and environment – global strategies for future
TRANSCRIPT
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Aviation and Environment –
Global Strategies for Future Air Transport
Hamburg Aerospace Lecture – 11 May 2017 Thomas Rötger, IATA
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Overview
� Aviation and climate change
� Fuel-efficient aircraft technologies
� Sustainable aviation fuels
� Global market-based measure
� Local air quality
� Noise
� Aircraft decommissioning and recycling
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Aviation and climate change
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Global warming
Source: WRI
Solar radiation
Infrared
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Aviation climate impact
How much of man-made CO2 emissions comes from aviation?
?
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Air transport climate change contribution
• Our carbon footprint is small but growing
� From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC)
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Aviation faces emissions challenge...
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1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
Mill
ion t
onnes C
O2
628 Mt(2010F)
Pre-recession
ICAO forecast
Post-recession
IATA forecast
CO2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines
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…..but our track record is strong
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1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140
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CO
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Fuel efficiency Emissions at frozen 1990 technology
Actual CO2 Emissions
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Industry Commitment on Climate ChangeGeneva 2008
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Four pillars of climate action
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Three goals…(commitment by all aviation industry sectors in 2009)
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12
Aviation climate action(schematic only)
CORSIA
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ICAO and Environment
WG1 WG2 WG3 FESG MDG GMTF AFTF ACCS ISG
Noisetechnical
Airports&
Operations
EmissionsTechnical
Forecasting&
EconomicSupport
Modeling&
Databases
GlobalMBM
Technical
Alt Fuels
AviationCarbon
Calculator
Impact &
Science
Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP)24 Members (States)
15 Observers (States, Intergovernmental organisations, Industry and NGOs)
ICAO Council (36 Members)
ICAO Assembly (191 States)
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ICAO Environmental Goals
� Limit or reduce the impact of aviation GHG emissions on global climate
� Limit or reduce the impact of aviation emissions on local air quality
� Limit or reduce the number of people affected by significant aircraft noise
Impleme
nt
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� CO2 Standard
� Operational measures
� Market-based measures (CORSIA)
� Alternative fuels for aviation
ICAO Basket of measures for climate action
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CO2 Standard – definition� CO2 standard adopted in 2016 after 6 years of development and
negotiations
� Metric value:
�� =�/��
��.��as a function of MTOW
� SAR: Specific air range [km/kg]
� (1/SAR: “fuel consumption” [kg/km])
� RGF: Reference geometric factor (similar to cabin area)
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CO2 Standard – certification limit
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Single aisle
(>100 seats)
Twin aisle
<100 seats
InP: In-production aircraftNT: New types
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CO2 Standard – applicability
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2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Applications for new type certificationNew types
In-production typesAll modified versionsBy 2028 all InP types
In-service aircraft (not applicable)
Not designed to serve as a basis for operating restrictions or emissions levies
DGLR Hamburg
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Fuel-efficientaircraft technologies
DGLR Hamburg
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Strong track record� Over the last 50 years
� Hydrocarbons: -90%
� Soot: eliminated
� Noise: -75%
� Fuel burn: -70%
� Well on track with our target:
� 2.2% p.a. in average between 2008 and 2015
� New aircraft help
� A380, B787, A350 consuming less than 3 l / 100 pax km
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Research & Technology GoalsACARE Environmental Goals
2121
Noise CO2
Otheremissions
Green life cycle
Alternative fuels
Vision 2020
objectives(ref 2000)
• Halve perceived noise = - 10 dB per operation
• 65 LDEN at airport boundaries (no-one impacted outside airport boundaries)
• Decrease CO2 by 50% per pass.km
• Decrease NOX
by 80% (eq. -60%/CAEP6)
• Progress in reducing the environmental impact of the lifecycle of aircraft
None
Flightpath2050
objectives(ref 2000)
• Reduce by 65% perceived noise = - 15 dB per operation
• Decrease CO2 by 75% per pass.km
• Decrease NOX
by 90%• Europe at the
forefront of atmosphericresearch
• Emission-free taxiing
• Air vehiclesare recyclable
• Europe centre of excellence on sustainablealternative fuels
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Technology – Fuel saving potential(IATA Technology Roadmap – TERESA project with DLR Hamburg)
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Technology – Fuel saving potential
• Wingtips• More efficient APU• Engine retrofits • Composite secondary structures
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Technology – Fuel saving potential
• New engines (geared turbofan / counter-rotating fan)
• Composite primary structures
• Active load alleviation
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Technology – Fuel saving potential
• New engine architecture, incl. open rotor
• Natural/hybrid laminar flow
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Technology – Fuel saving potential
• Variable cycle• Hybrid wing body• Strut-braced wing• Fuel cell• Battery-powered aircraft
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Technology – Fuel saving potential
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34000 new aircraft over next 20 years (20000 growth, 14000 replacement)Investment $4.5 trillion
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Stepwise fleet renewal
51-100 ATR72/CR9 MRJ N+2
101-150 A320/B737 A320neo/B737MAX N+2
151-210 A320/B738 A320neo/B737MAX N+2
301-400 A330/B777 A330neo/B777X N+2
401-500 A380/B747 B777X N+2
501-600 A380/B748 A380neo N+2
601-650 A380 A380neo N+2
211-300 B767 A350/B787 N+2 N+3
2010 2040 204520352030202520202015
seat category
Future fuel efficiency improvement occurs stepwise, depending on introduction timescale of new aircraft generations
(every 15 to 20 years in each seat category)
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Radically new aircraft configurations(AIRCAT project with DLR Hamburg(
� Evolutionary aircraft configurations: Limited improvement potential
� Driven by environmental goals →
Many new projects on radically new configurations over the last few years:
� Other than tube-and-wing (e.g. blended wing body)
� New propulsion (e.g. open rotor)
� New structural configurations (e.g. double-bubble, strut-braced wing, box wing)
� New energy sources (e.g. battery-powered)
� etc.
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Operational impacts
� Non-tube & wing configurations – blended wing body:
� Passenger experience, Evacuation, Airport compatibility
� Slower flight speed – open rotor, battery aircraft:
� Flight time, ATM integration
� New energies – electric, LNG etc.:
� Connect airport to supply network
� Adapt aircraft engines and fuel/power systems
� Radically new operational schemes could further contribute to fuel/CO2 efficiency, e.g. formation flight
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Impact on global fuel efficiency
� Radically new configurations:
� Slow market penetration due to fleet renewal cycles
� Could play a larger role beyond 2050
� Sustainable fuels
� Will have to contribute largest part to 2050 CO2 reduction goal
� Fast uptake of drop-in fuels once available
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2015 2035 2050
Glo
ba
l CO
2e
mis
sio
ns
evolutionary only
+radical configurations
≤ 20%
SAF
2050 goal
Source: IATA/DLR AIRCAT study
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Outlook
� Radically new concepts and technologies will likely be needed in the long term to meet the aviation climate goals
� Need to secure globally:
� Reliable continuous energy supply
� Airport compatibility
� Passenger acceptance
� Way forward for implementation
� Start low-level technology development early
� Plan infrastructure and operational adaptation early
� Plan long lead times and high investments
� Accelerate market penetration
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Sustainable aviation fuels
DGLR Hamburg
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Lifecycle emissions from fossil fuels
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Lifecycle emissions from biofuels
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~2008 - 2011
• 1st technical certifications
• Test/demo flights
etc.
2011 - 2015 2016+
1,100+ flights
360+ flights
260+ flights
• Airline/Supplier offtake agreements, e.g.
• Bioports
in preparation:
Com
merc
ial R
eadin
ess
Airlines supporting sustainable jet fuel commercialisation
and 20 other airlines
Over 2000 commercial flights (single or limited series):
R&D/Proof of Concept
Operational Feasiblity
Commercial-Scale Deals
etc.
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Reaching Commercial Scale
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Airline/supplier offtake agreements
� First bioport with regular operations: Oslo Airport started 22 Jan 2016
� United/AltAir operations started 11 March 2016
� Largest agreement (United/ Fulcrum) over 270’000 t/year
� In addition, strong investments by US government (incl. military)
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Requirements for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)
� Drop-in� Can be blended with existing jet fuel
� No need for adaptation of aircraft / engines nor parallel infrastructure
� Technically certified as equivalent to conventional jet fuel
� Sustainability� Essential requirement for majority of airline customers
� Working with ICAO on globally harmonized criteria
� Economic viability� Bridge the cost gap with Jet A-1 fuel
� Ensure a level policy play field between road and air
� Effective political support needed for sustainable jet fuel deployment
� Cooperation� Engagement of producers, suppliers, aviation industry and
governments, EC and ICAO is essential
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Sustainable aviation fuels – Timescale
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First test flights
First passenger flights
First regular airline and airport supply
Radically new drop-in and non-drop-in fuels and
energies
With suitable political support: up to 100% SAF*
First non-biomass drop-in fuels (PtL,
solar)
Potential strong increase of SAF use
Biofuel production ramp-up to 1 – 6 Mt*
Biofuels from vegetable oils and
animal fats
5 production pathways certified
2008 20202016 20502011 2030-35
*IATA/MIT/ICAO study
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Sustainable aviation fuels – Way forward
� Sustainable aviation fuels can be a major instrument to meeting aviation’s long-term emissions reduction goals
� Since early 2016, continuous supply starting:
� Airline/supplier offtake agreements (mostly US)
� Bioports
� Today’s barriers are economic rather than technical
� Sustainability is key requirement for most aviation customers
� Positive political and legislative framework needed
� In the mid-to-long term, non-biological SAF solutions (from industrial waste gases, Power-to-Liquid, Solar jet fuel)
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Global market-based measure
DGLR Hamburg
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Aviation’s global market-based measure
� Paris Agreement provided momentum to ICAO discussions
� Aviation and shipping to be progressed through ICAO and IMO
� Historic decision at ICAO Assembly
� Nearly all 191 ICAO States supported ‘CORSIA’
� Industry was instrumental in agreement
� Seven years since industry set goals and started pushing for a global MBM
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How does CORSIA work?� Addresses increase in CO2 emissions from international civil aviation above
2020 levels
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States included in the first (voluntary) phases
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Route-based approach → limited market distortion
Included from 2021
Included from 2027
Exempt from CORSIA
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How will offsettingwork for aviation?
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Local air quality
DGLR Hamburg
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Local air quality� Focus on airport surroundings, usually close to urban and residential
areas
� Aircraft emissions contributing to local air quality (LAQ) concerns:
� Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
� Unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC)
� Carbon monoxide (CO)
� Particulate Matter (PM)
� New ICAO standard under development (to replace “smoke number”)
� New standard will consider PM mass and number (important for ultrafine particles)
� Sulphur oxides (SOx) – depend on fuel composition only
Regulated in ICAO certification standard(Annex 16, Vol. II)
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Local air qualityMultitude of emissions in airport areas:� Aircraft operations
� Landing, takeoff, taxiing, turnaround
� Ground service equipment (GSE)� Fuel & catering trucks, tugs etc.
� Can be run electric, with hydrogen, etc.
� Other airside and landside vehicles� Cars, taxis, buses, trains, etc.
� Stationary power generation plants
� Maintenance and handling activities � Fuel storage, de-icing, etc.
� LAQ measurements do not distinguish origin of pollutants
� Alternative fuels reduce LAQ impact
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Noise
DGLR Hamburg
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Noise
� Aircraft noise reduction at source:
� - 75% over the past 50 years (minus 20 dB)
� - 50% expected from 2000 to 2020 (minus 10 dB)
� Noise stabilized in spite of traffic growth� Remains, the main obstacle to airport development
� Annoyance is the problem, not noise
� Growing pressure, especially in Europe, to put traffic limits, ban night operations, etc.
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Noise reduction and ICAO certification
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Noise footprint reduction
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Engine and airframe noise
Low speedperformance
Flaps and slats
Nacelle attenuation
Landing gear
Noise abatement procedures
Engine noise
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Engine bypass ratio
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Aircraft decommissioning and recycling
DGLR Hamburg
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Aging aircraft world fleet� Steeply rising number of aircraft to be decommissioned
� More than 3000 commercial aircraft over 25 years old and still in service
� Average service time of an aircraft 25+ years
� Significant variability – depending on business model
� Recent trend to decommission aircraft at lower age
� Many large airlines sell aircraft well prior to decommissioning
� Specific target group of carriers with old aircraft (including numerous cargo airlines) – financial capacity usually low
� 12000 aircraft expected to be decommissioned in the next 20 years
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Needs for decommissioning
Decommissioning process
Aircraft Dismantling facility
Estimated number
Controlled
(including storage, e.g. Mojave desert)
Flyable Fixed > 3000
Immobilised Mobile only
Uncontrolled
(at airfield edges)
Immobilised Mobile only Unknown
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Aircraft end-of-life issues� Safety
� Re-use of parts/equipment that have lost certification (black market)� Aircraft cut up in questionable safety conditions
� Environment� Hazardous substances (e.g. hydraulic fluids, asbestos, depleted
uranium ballast)� Soil and water contamination� Waste management regulations
� Operations� Obstruction of airport areas� Airport expansion inhibited
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Economic aspects� Airlines should be encouraged to do controlled decommissioning
� Avoid disincentivising costs (target group is financially weak)
� Optimised re-use / recycling should allow maximal benefit from components’ residual value
Costs
Assets
MaintenanceWasteParkingForgone airport utilisation
Residual value:- Metal- Equipment? not if certification lostminus Liabilities
Time
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Re-use and recycling� Many pieces of equipment (engines, avionics, …) can be re-used
� Represents much higher value than metal structure
� Rigorous safety control needed → new identification systems (RFID) can help
� Avoid equipment losing certification
� Various metallic alloys, mainly Al
� Separated by type? → Higher value, but higher separation costs
� Carbon-fibre composites (e.g. tailplanes)
� Recycling methods under development
� For the future:
� Increased use of recyclable materials in new aircraft
� “Design for deconstruction”
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Way forward� Develop best practices for controlled aircraft decommissioning
� Best use of residual value
� Minimize environmental and safety risks
� IATA-led industry group working on best practices manual
� Make mobile decommissioning services accessible all over the world
� Earlier decommissioning accelerates fleet renewal
� Enhances implementation of new technologies
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Conclusions� Environment is a major challenge for aviation
� Aviation represents 2% of man-made CO2 emissions, but growing
� Aviation is the first global industry sector committing to ambitious climate goals
� ICAO supports these goals with a basket of measures
� Global market-based measure, CO2 standard etc.
� Technology goals have led to an impressive number of innovation activities
� Sustainable aviation fuels
� Radically new aircraft configurations and propulsion energies
� New standards drive reduction of noise and pollutant emissions
� Emerging topic: Aircraft decommissioning and recycling
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