megatrends Q1 2013 MAGAZINE iDelphi-TVSi What h hap ppened when a global T1 joined forces wit th India’s largest supplier ifocus on safetyi aeb, truck saf fety tech and ev crash testing isticky businessi the ris se of adhesive bonding in biw ialways connected?i vodafone talks m2m iinductive power transferi charges the ev market Plus: insights from Roland Berger, Frost & Sullivan and Global Policy Group
Quarterly publication covering a range of forward-looking topics from the automotive and commercial vehicle industries, from concept through to aftersales.
TRANSCRIPT
megatrendsQ1 2013 M A G A Z I N E
iDelphi-TVSiWhat hhapppened when a
global T1 joined forceswitth Indiarsquos largest
supplier
ifocus on safetyiaeb truck saffety tech and
ev crash testing
isticky businessithe risse of adhesive
bonding in biw
ialways connectedivodafone talks m2m
iinductive power transfericharges the ev market
Plus insights from Roland Berger Frost amp Sullivan and Global Policy Group
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
gtOn the cover11 | Delphi-TVSThe JV discusses combining globaltech with domestic presence
27 | Wireless chargingWill sparks fly as EV chargingbecomes cable free
34 | CV AEB and EV safetyThatcham deliberates EV testing(p34) while Delphirsquos GlobalEngineering Director discusses trucksafety in 2013 and beyond (p43) andMegatrends investigates whetherAEB is the most important safetydevelopment of recent years (p38)
54 | Always connectedVodafone talks M2M for the autoindustry
61 | Sticky business Adhesive bonding joins themainstream to meet BIW demands
Contents
15 | Mobility integrationA step closer to multi-modal door-to-door travel
18 | Lubricants A design parameter not anafterthought
22 | Interview Yves van derStraatenSecretary General OICA
47 | Truck Transportation 2030Impacting the CV industry
64 | Auto brands must confrontcounterfeiting in ChinaInsight from Dr Paolo BeconciniCBM International Lawyers
65 | OEMs and dealers must notignore online car-buyingBy Luca Mentuccia Accenture
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offer that strengthen our position as an industry leader in the markets we
serve Our commitment to our customers as well as our culture of continuous
improvement have made us the strong diversified and integrated company
we are known for today
CVG Corporate HQ 7800 Walton Parkway | New Albany OH 43054 6142895360 | Visit us on the web wwwcvgrpcom
Seating Electrical Interior Trim Structures
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ElectricalSeating
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CVG
6142895360 | Visit us on the web Corporate HQ 7800 WCVG
www6142895360 | Visit us on the web arkway | New Albanyalton PCorporate HQ 7800 W
cvgrpcomwww OH 43054 arkway | New Albany
OH 43054
55Interview Dr Andreas SchamelFord
99Interview Robert PlankSchaeffler
5500Is natural gas a viablealternative fuel for HD trucking
5577Outlook 2013 The Obama administration Congress and the autoindustry
Q1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Zero emission vehicles
The CO2 emissions generated by electricvehicles in India are comparable with those oflow-efficiency gasoline-powered cars This isthe finding of an independent research groupcalled Shrink that Footprint which examinedthe CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions of EVsin 20 leading economies It found that onceCO2 emissions of 70gkm for vehicleproduction are factored in along withemissions from power production fuelproduction and grid losses EVs in India emit370g CO2ekm
Paraguay Iceland Sweden Brazil and Francecame out best in the survey ranging from 70-93g CO2ekm thanks to their use of lowcarbon power generation India was joined inthe top five worst performing countries bySouth Africa (318g CO2ekm) Australia (292)Indonesia (270) and China (258)
Like India coal dominates electricitygeneration in China which by 2015 wants tobe building 500000 plug-in EVs a year The USgovernment has set a higher target for 2015of 1 million EVs on the road although it hasalso conceded that this is ldquoambitiousrdquo itranked eighth (202g CO2ekm) in the report
Emerging markets - and China in particular -were singled out as offering the best businesspotential for battery EVs (BEVs) in a reportpublished recently by Automotive WorldTechnology Roadmap Battery ElectricVehiclesAccording to this research BEVswill account for less than 5 of the new lightvehicle market by 2020 It also highlighted thetwo well-known challenges facing BEVsbattery cost and range
In an effort to overcome these issues severalcompanies say they are at an advanced stage inthe development of wireless or inductivecharging for cars trucks and buses Megatrendsspoke to three players in this field to find outhow feasible the technology really is
Another challenge that EVs face is the publicperception of their safety On page 34
Andrew Hooker of the UKrsquos ThatchamResearch tells Megatrends about the safetyaspects of vehicles with electrified powertrains
Thatcham one of Euro NCAPrsquos-accreditedtest labs also specialises in autonomousemergency braking Although not required bylaw AEB will be included in Euro NCAPrsquos testsfrom 2014 AEB has however been mandatedfor heavy trucks and buses in Europe from late2013 and NHTSA is considering mandating itfor trucks in the US On page 43 DelphirsquosMike Thoeny talks to Megatrends about thistechnology which he says ldquowill truly have ameasurable impact on road safetyrdquo
Based on the findings of the aforementioned20 country EVs report therersquos much to bedone to turn EVs into the zero emissionvehicles that they are marketed as Howeverin terms of reducing emissions and improvingthe efficiency of light vehicles Fordrsquos Directorof Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering Dr Andreas Schamel believesthe internal combustion engine still has a longhealthy future ahead of it but only if itincorporates some form of electrification Onpage 5 Schamel shares his thoughts onincorporating more efficient energy strategiesinto powertrain architecture For thesuppliersrsquo view Megatrends spoke toSchaefflerrsquos VP of Corporate EngineeringRobert Plank who was also one of thepanellists at the first Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture Joining Plank in thedebate about the growing importance oflubricants in improving powertrain efficiencywere Shellrsquos Selda Gunsel Professor GordonMurray and executives from Scuderia Ferrariand Infineum Read our report on page 18
We hope you enjoy this issue of Megatrendsmagazine and as always we welcome yourthoughts and suggestions email us atmegatrendsautomotiveworldcom
Martin KahlMartin KahlEditor Automotive World
Editors welcome
Higher engine outputs higher loading capacities higher speeds Whoever wants to stay ahead in the haulage business must brake costs But what about vehicle safety Voith Retarder cover all of these aspects They perform up to 90 of all braking operations wear-free This does not only reduce the maintenance cost of the service brake it also saves fuel while the average speed the driving comfort and the transport volume of your vehicles are increased The Voith hydrodynamic Retarders VR 119 and VR 123+ are in series production in India
Subscriptions and AdvertisingGavin Dobsongavindobsonautomotiveworldcom
Copyright Automotive World Ltd 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
How far do you think enginedownsizing can go without affectingperformance
This will change as technology progressesNot only are you getting diminishing returnswhen you over-downsize you actually get theopposite effect Theres a certain amount ofoptimum downsizing at the current level oftechnology and thats about where we arewith the 10-litre in its applications for B-carC-car up to entry level CD car With thecurrent set of technologies we wouldnrsquot put itinto anything heavier or more aggressiveFrom a pure performance standpoint thatsnot really the limiting factor and the questionis are you really gaining fuel economyBecause if you push the horsepower higheryou need to lower the compression ratio withthe current set and you need to make surethe bottom end launchability or drive-awayisnt negatively affected
Overall you dont necessarily get a betterCO2 value proposition Having said thatthere are technology enhancements in thepipeline which will move that border a bitfurther but not infinitely And there is a limitto how small you can make an engine I cantreally see us going for mainstreamapplications much smaller than a 10-litreengine And if you reduce the single cylinderdisplacement further you get into thermaldynamic losses and the equation isnt reallythat good If you go further down than athree-cylinder then NVH negative effects andfiring frequency get in the way of a reallyenjoyable product
Would you consider using a two-cylinder engine in a very small car
We have done some benchmarking on two-cylinder engine technology and we are notreally impressed There are other means ofgetting extra fuel efficiency out of the currentpackage if you donrsquot need the performance Sorather than going physically smaller we wouldprobably go towards a Miller cycle highcompression ratio application so that youhave extra fuel economy without any furtherdetrimental effects which you would get if yougo down in cylinder count
Thats at least when youre talking about thecombustion engine as the main or onlypropulsion system The answer could bedifferent in a plug-in hybrid or any kind of aconcept like that where you dont necessarilyhave the engine running in its full operatingspeed range
Are you pursuing cylinderdeactivation at Ford
On a three-cylinder its somewhat tricky Iwouldnt say totally unfeasible but normallycylinder deactivation only works with aneven number of cylinders because youwould typically switch off half of thecylinders If you try to do it with an unevennumber of cylinders you either need todevelop a very interesting but complexconcept that enables you to alternate withevery single cycle which cylinder you aredeactivating or you get into a completelyinfeasible firing frequency So effectively it
then feels to the customer like something iswrong with the engine You are misfiringYoure leaving out one of the combustionstrokes On our three-cylinder EcoBoost wehave made the engine small enough Wedont need to deactivate The benefits ofdeactivation are really to be found in largerengines
Are you therefore focusing on the10-litre three-cylinder strategyrather than deactivation higher up inthe range
Well higher up in thedisplacement range Iwouldnt necessarilycompletely dismiss it Itis all a question of theorder in which youdeploy the technologyelements to get fueleconomy Logically youare doing it in the order of Athe customer has the maximumbenefit and the customer has fundriving and B you are doing it in anaffordable manner so the customercan still afford the car On that scalethe cylinder deactivation wasnt thenext logical step for us but it couldbe in the future
There are several interestingcompanies developing opposedcylinder layouts or different enginearchitectures Is that somethingthats being considered at Ford
Those concepts are something that weconstantly look at and we have the necessarydialogue with all of those companies to makesure we stay on top It is difficult to competewith an architecture approach which has morethan 100 years of development history tocome up with something new which is reallybetter in all aspects without having otherside-effects Even if you find a concept whichhas a theoretical advantage the investmentneeded to implement an entirely differentmanufacturing strategy usually makes it cost-prohibitive
I am not denying those concepts a future roleIt is just a matter of which concept whenwhat scale what is the path to market if itmakes sense Some concepts can be dismissedbecause there are crazy claims out therewhich just dont hang together Some of themwould have to reinvent some of the groundrules of the universe and those kinds of ideaswe do dismiss - I am not wasting myengineers time on it Some concepts outthere are credible and just have realisationinvestment or commercialisation issues
Youve talked in the past about howyou see the internal combustionengine having a good long futureahead of it but that it will comewith some assistance Can yououtline a little bit what youunderstand by that
I often get asked about electrification versusinternal combustion and its just not a questionof the one versus the other If you look at thecomplete spectrum of offerings out there onlythe pure battery electric does not have acombustion engine Everything else out therewhether it is range extender plug-in hybridhybrids they all have a combustion engine andthey are all - as far as the element of propulsionwhich comes from the combustion isconcerned - only as good as the energyconversion of the combustion engine So fromthat aspect theres still a great need to developinternal combustion engines The developmentfocus is slightly different in a highly electrifiedpowertrain compared to a mildly-electrified ornon-electrified powertrain Look at our 10-litreEcoBoost it uses stopstart which is microelectrification As you move up the ladder youwill find more electrification getting into thespectrum What you are not doing even on themost efficient combustion engine is recoupingthe energy which youre otherwise wasting onbraking In the future I see that aspect ofelectrification as the very minimum level ofelectrification in the mainstream The dynamic
part of your driving pattern should not bewasted in the brakes
So there are two key areaswhere energy could be
recaptured thermal dynamicsand braking
Yes In terms of the combustionengine including transmission the
focus has always been on the efficiencyof primary conversion of fuel turningthe chemical energy into mechanical
energy and getting it to the wheelseffectively getting the maximum number of
calories stored in your fuel onto the road forpropulsion But regardless of how muchenergy you get there the first time you brakeyou are heating up your brake pads with thatvery valuable kinetic energy So thatssomething which in the long run we need togo after And that will not be to the detrimentof the combustion engine it will be in synergywith the combustion engine and will augment
that part which you wont get out of even themost efficient combustion engine becausetheres no backward pass Its not like you canuse the wheels to drive the transmission toactually have the engine producing fuel
How does the work that youredoing for future powertraintechnology tie in with the researchinto use of new materials likecarbon bre or ultra-high strengthsteel lighter materials aluminium
It does tie in significantly We started thedialogue on how much downsizing is comingand the way we are looking at that is in ametric we call lsquoD over Mrsquo - displacement overmass of the vehicle With a given set oftechnologies you reach acceptable limits onhow far you can go down with thedisplacement of the engine relative to theweight of the vehicle So yes you can workwith the displacement but you can also workwith the weight and clearly lightweightplatforms lightweight materials next-generation vehicle platforms play an importantrole in enabling engine downsizing
Another important factor is intelligent trafficmanagement If you know what traffic iscoming then you dont have to waste theenergy Telematics and vehicle communicationsare key elements in addition to weightreduction and conventional fuel efficiencystrategies
In the short term where do youexpect to make the big CO2 savings
There isnt really one thing I could point toThere are still significant gains to be made inboth gasoline and diesel technology We dosee now the hybridised vehicles coming intoEurope and there is still potential in the nextgeneration of vehicles as well but the nextround of CO2 reduction will be in systemsengineering gaining 1 here and 15 thereWe call it ECOnetic Technology a bundle ofsmall gains and savings which together makedouble-digit differences
InterviewDr Andreas Schamel FordDirector Global Powertrain Research and Advanced Engineering
On 1 October 2012 Andreas Schamel was appointed as Fordrsquos firstEuropean-based director of Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering In addition to leading Fordrsquos global powertrain activitiesSchamel will retain his position as joint Managing Director of FordrsquosEuropean Research Centre in Aachen Germany - a role he shares with Pimvan der Jagt He will remain based in Aachen Germany
Here Dr Schamel shares his thoughts on incorporating more efficientenergy strategies into powertrain architecture
Martin Kahl
Ford Focus 10-litre EcoBoost
2011 Ford F-150 35-litre EcoBoost engine
Rethink Redesign Revolutionize With DSMrsquos high-performing plastics you can design cars that not only cost less to produce but are stronger lighter and more fuel e cient than ever before Itrsquos how DSMrsquos Bright Science is helping car manufacturers worldwide balance better performance with the drive for sustainability And design cars with built-in pro tability
Visit our new automotive market site to learn more about our weight saving solutionsWWWDSMCOMAUTOMOTIVE
For him Bright Science means new ways to lightweighthis designs
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
POWER TRAIN AND CHASSIS SOLUTIONS FOR
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YOU CAN SEEOUR THINKING
ENGINEERING ADVANTAGE
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Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
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F E OE TH
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AWWATOFSTOMOTU
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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28
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84
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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)((
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+
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
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imite
d A
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s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
gtOn the cover11 | Delphi-TVSThe JV discusses combining globaltech with domestic presence
27 | Wireless chargingWill sparks fly as EV chargingbecomes cable free
34 | CV AEB and EV safetyThatcham deliberates EV testing(p34) while Delphirsquos GlobalEngineering Director discusses trucksafety in 2013 and beyond (p43) andMegatrends investigates whetherAEB is the most important safetydevelopment of recent years (p38)
54 | Always connectedVodafone talks M2M for the autoindustry
61 | Sticky business Adhesive bonding joins themainstream to meet BIW demands
Contents
15 | Mobility integrationA step closer to multi-modal door-to-door travel
18 | Lubricants A design parameter not anafterthought
22 | Interview Yves van derStraatenSecretary General OICA
47 | Truck Transportation 2030Impacting the CV industry
64 | Auto brands must confrontcounterfeiting in ChinaInsight from Dr Paolo BeconciniCBM International Lawyers
65 | OEMs and dealers must notignore online car-buyingBy Luca Mentuccia Accenture
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55Interview Dr Andreas SchamelFord
99Interview Robert PlankSchaeffler
5500Is natural gas a viablealternative fuel for HD trucking
5577Outlook 2013 The Obama administration Congress and the autoindustry
Q1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Zero emission vehicles
The CO2 emissions generated by electricvehicles in India are comparable with those oflow-efficiency gasoline-powered cars This isthe finding of an independent research groupcalled Shrink that Footprint which examinedthe CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions of EVsin 20 leading economies It found that onceCO2 emissions of 70gkm for vehicleproduction are factored in along withemissions from power production fuelproduction and grid losses EVs in India emit370g CO2ekm
Paraguay Iceland Sweden Brazil and Francecame out best in the survey ranging from 70-93g CO2ekm thanks to their use of lowcarbon power generation India was joined inthe top five worst performing countries bySouth Africa (318g CO2ekm) Australia (292)Indonesia (270) and China (258)
Like India coal dominates electricitygeneration in China which by 2015 wants tobe building 500000 plug-in EVs a year The USgovernment has set a higher target for 2015of 1 million EVs on the road although it hasalso conceded that this is ldquoambitiousrdquo itranked eighth (202g CO2ekm) in the report
Emerging markets - and China in particular -were singled out as offering the best businesspotential for battery EVs (BEVs) in a reportpublished recently by Automotive WorldTechnology Roadmap Battery ElectricVehiclesAccording to this research BEVswill account for less than 5 of the new lightvehicle market by 2020 It also highlighted thetwo well-known challenges facing BEVsbattery cost and range
In an effort to overcome these issues severalcompanies say they are at an advanced stage inthe development of wireless or inductivecharging for cars trucks and buses Megatrendsspoke to three players in this field to find outhow feasible the technology really is
Another challenge that EVs face is the publicperception of their safety On page 34
Andrew Hooker of the UKrsquos ThatchamResearch tells Megatrends about the safetyaspects of vehicles with electrified powertrains
Thatcham one of Euro NCAPrsquos-accreditedtest labs also specialises in autonomousemergency braking Although not required bylaw AEB will be included in Euro NCAPrsquos testsfrom 2014 AEB has however been mandatedfor heavy trucks and buses in Europe from late2013 and NHTSA is considering mandating itfor trucks in the US On page 43 DelphirsquosMike Thoeny talks to Megatrends about thistechnology which he says ldquowill truly have ameasurable impact on road safetyrdquo
Based on the findings of the aforementioned20 country EVs report therersquos much to bedone to turn EVs into the zero emissionvehicles that they are marketed as Howeverin terms of reducing emissions and improvingthe efficiency of light vehicles Fordrsquos Directorof Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering Dr Andreas Schamel believesthe internal combustion engine still has a longhealthy future ahead of it but only if itincorporates some form of electrification Onpage 5 Schamel shares his thoughts onincorporating more efficient energy strategiesinto powertrain architecture For thesuppliersrsquo view Megatrends spoke toSchaefflerrsquos VP of Corporate EngineeringRobert Plank who was also one of thepanellists at the first Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture Joining Plank in thedebate about the growing importance oflubricants in improving powertrain efficiencywere Shellrsquos Selda Gunsel Professor GordonMurray and executives from Scuderia Ferrariand Infineum Read our report on page 18
We hope you enjoy this issue of Megatrendsmagazine and as always we welcome yourthoughts and suggestions email us atmegatrendsautomotiveworldcom
Martin KahlMartin KahlEditor Automotive World
Editors welcome
Higher engine outputs higher loading capacities higher speeds Whoever wants to stay ahead in the haulage business must brake costs But what about vehicle safety Voith Retarder cover all of these aspects They perform up to 90 of all braking operations wear-free This does not only reduce the maintenance cost of the service brake it also saves fuel while the average speed the driving comfort and the transport volume of your vehicles are increased The Voith hydrodynamic Retarders VR 119 and VR 123+ are in series production in India
Subscriptions and AdvertisingGavin Dobsongavindobsonautomotiveworldcom
Copyright Automotive World Ltd 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
How far do you think enginedownsizing can go without affectingperformance
This will change as technology progressesNot only are you getting diminishing returnswhen you over-downsize you actually get theopposite effect Theres a certain amount ofoptimum downsizing at the current level oftechnology and thats about where we arewith the 10-litre in its applications for B-carC-car up to entry level CD car With thecurrent set of technologies we wouldnrsquot put itinto anything heavier or more aggressiveFrom a pure performance standpoint thatsnot really the limiting factor and the questionis are you really gaining fuel economyBecause if you push the horsepower higheryou need to lower the compression ratio withthe current set and you need to make surethe bottom end launchability or drive-awayisnt negatively affected
Overall you dont necessarily get a betterCO2 value proposition Having said thatthere are technology enhancements in thepipeline which will move that border a bitfurther but not infinitely And there is a limitto how small you can make an engine I cantreally see us going for mainstreamapplications much smaller than a 10-litreengine And if you reduce the single cylinderdisplacement further you get into thermaldynamic losses and the equation isnt reallythat good If you go further down than athree-cylinder then NVH negative effects andfiring frequency get in the way of a reallyenjoyable product
Would you consider using a two-cylinder engine in a very small car
We have done some benchmarking on two-cylinder engine technology and we are notreally impressed There are other means ofgetting extra fuel efficiency out of the currentpackage if you donrsquot need the performance Sorather than going physically smaller we wouldprobably go towards a Miller cycle highcompression ratio application so that youhave extra fuel economy without any furtherdetrimental effects which you would get if yougo down in cylinder count
Thats at least when youre talking about thecombustion engine as the main or onlypropulsion system The answer could bedifferent in a plug-in hybrid or any kind of aconcept like that where you dont necessarilyhave the engine running in its full operatingspeed range
Are you pursuing cylinderdeactivation at Ford
On a three-cylinder its somewhat tricky Iwouldnt say totally unfeasible but normallycylinder deactivation only works with aneven number of cylinders because youwould typically switch off half of thecylinders If you try to do it with an unevennumber of cylinders you either need todevelop a very interesting but complexconcept that enables you to alternate withevery single cycle which cylinder you aredeactivating or you get into a completelyinfeasible firing frequency So effectively it
then feels to the customer like something iswrong with the engine You are misfiringYoure leaving out one of the combustionstrokes On our three-cylinder EcoBoost wehave made the engine small enough Wedont need to deactivate The benefits ofdeactivation are really to be found in largerengines
Are you therefore focusing on the10-litre three-cylinder strategyrather than deactivation higher up inthe range
Well higher up in thedisplacement range Iwouldnt necessarilycompletely dismiss it Itis all a question of theorder in which youdeploy the technologyelements to get fueleconomy Logically youare doing it in the order of Athe customer has the maximumbenefit and the customer has fundriving and B you are doing it in anaffordable manner so the customercan still afford the car On that scalethe cylinder deactivation wasnt thenext logical step for us but it couldbe in the future
There are several interestingcompanies developing opposedcylinder layouts or different enginearchitectures Is that somethingthats being considered at Ford
Those concepts are something that weconstantly look at and we have the necessarydialogue with all of those companies to makesure we stay on top It is difficult to competewith an architecture approach which has morethan 100 years of development history tocome up with something new which is reallybetter in all aspects without having otherside-effects Even if you find a concept whichhas a theoretical advantage the investmentneeded to implement an entirely differentmanufacturing strategy usually makes it cost-prohibitive
I am not denying those concepts a future roleIt is just a matter of which concept whenwhat scale what is the path to market if itmakes sense Some concepts can be dismissedbecause there are crazy claims out therewhich just dont hang together Some of themwould have to reinvent some of the groundrules of the universe and those kinds of ideaswe do dismiss - I am not wasting myengineers time on it Some concepts outthere are credible and just have realisationinvestment or commercialisation issues
Youve talked in the past about howyou see the internal combustionengine having a good long futureahead of it but that it will comewith some assistance Can yououtline a little bit what youunderstand by that
I often get asked about electrification versusinternal combustion and its just not a questionof the one versus the other If you look at thecomplete spectrum of offerings out there onlythe pure battery electric does not have acombustion engine Everything else out therewhether it is range extender plug-in hybridhybrids they all have a combustion engine andthey are all - as far as the element of propulsionwhich comes from the combustion isconcerned - only as good as the energyconversion of the combustion engine So fromthat aspect theres still a great need to developinternal combustion engines The developmentfocus is slightly different in a highly electrifiedpowertrain compared to a mildly-electrified ornon-electrified powertrain Look at our 10-litreEcoBoost it uses stopstart which is microelectrification As you move up the ladder youwill find more electrification getting into thespectrum What you are not doing even on themost efficient combustion engine is recoupingthe energy which youre otherwise wasting onbraking In the future I see that aspect ofelectrification as the very minimum level ofelectrification in the mainstream The dynamic
part of your driving pattern should not bewasted in the brakes
So there are two key areaswhere energy could be
recaptured thermal dynamicsand braking
Yes In terms of the combustionengine including transmission the
focus has always been on the efficiencyof primary conversion of fuel turningthe chemical energy into mechanical
energy and getting it to the wheelseffectively getting the maximum number of
calories stored in your fuel onto the road forpropulsion But regardless of how muchenergy you get there the first time you brakeyou are heating up your brake pads with thatvery valuable kinetic energy So thatssomething which in the long run we need togo after And that will not be to the detrimentof the combustion engine it will be in synergywith the combustion engine and will augment
that part which you wont get out of even themost efficient combustion engine becausetheres no backward pass Its not like you canuse the wheels to drive the transmission toactually have the engine producing fuel
How does the work that youredoing for future powertraintechnology tie in with the researchinto use of new materials likecarbon bre or ultra-high strengthsteel lighter materials aluminium
It does tie in significantly We started thedialogue on how much downsizing is comingand the way we are looking at that is in ametric we call lsquoD over Mrsquo - displacement overmass of the vehicle With a given set oftechnologies you reach acceptable limits onhow far you can go down with thedisplacement of the engine relative to theweight of the vehicle So yes you can workwith the displacement but you can also workwith the weight and clearly lightweightplatforms lightweight materials next-generation vehicle platforms play an importantrole in enabling engine downsizing
Another important factor is intelligent trafficmanagement If you know what traffic iscoming then you dont have to waste theenergy Telematics and vehicle communicationsare key elements in addition to weightreduction and conventional fuel efficiencystrategies
In the short term where do youexpect to make the big CO2 savings
There isnt really one thing I could point toThere are still significant gains to be made inboth gasoline and diesel technology We dosee now the hybridised vehicles coming intoEurope and there is still potential in the nextgeneration of vehicles as well but the nextround of CO2 reduction will be in systemsengineering gaining 1 here and 15 thereWe call it ECOnetic Technology a bundle ofsmall gains and savings which together makedouble-digit differences
InterviewDr Andreas Schamel FordDirector Global Powertrain Research and Advanced Engineering
On 1 October 2012 Andreas Schamel was appointed as Fordrsquos firstEuropean-based director of Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering In addition to leading Fordrsquos global powertrain activitiesSchamel will retain his position as joint Managing Director of FordrsquosEuropean Research Centre in Aachen Germany - a role he shares with Pimvan der Jagt He will remain based in Aachen Germany
Here Dr Schamel shares his thoughts on incorporating more efficientenergy strategies into powertrain architecture
Martin Kahl
Ford Focus 10-litre EcoBoost
2011 Ford F-150 35-litre EcoBoost engine
Rethink Redesign Revolutionize With DSMrsquos high-performing plastics you can design cars that not only cost less to produce but are stronger lighter and more fuel e cient than ever before Itrsquos how DSMrsquos Bright Science is helping car manufacturers worldwide balance better performance with the drive for sustainability And design cars with built-in pro tability
Visit our new automotive market site to learn more about our weight saving solutionsWWWDSMCOMAUTOMOTIVE
For him Bright Science means new ways to lightweighthis designs
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
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fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
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This Automotive World
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automotive industry news analysis research and events
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Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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5
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44
56
49
23
28
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67
68
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84
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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)((
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Zero emission vehicles
The CO2 emissions generated by electricvehicles in India are comparable with those oflow-efficiency gasoline-powered cars This isthe finding of an independent research groupcalled Shrink that Footprint which examinedthe CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions of EVsin 20 leading economies It found that onceCO2 emissions of 70gkm for vehicleproduction are factored in along withemissions from power production fuelproduction and grid losses EVs in India emit370g CO2ekm
Paraguay Iceland Sweden Brazil and Francecame out best in the survey ranging from 70-93g CO2ekm thanks to their use of lowcarbon power generation India was joined inthe top five worst performing countries bySouth Africa (318g CO2ekm) Australia (292)Indonesia (270) and China (258)
Like India coal dominates electricitygeneration in China which by 2015 wants tobe building 500000 plug-in EVs a year The USgovernment has set a higher target for 2015of 1 million EVs on the road although it hasalso conceded that this is ldquoambitiousrdquo itranked eighth (202g CO2ekm) in the report
Emerging markets - and China in particular -were singled out as offering the best businesspotential for battery EVs (BEVs) in a reportpublished recently by Automotive WorldTechnology Roadmap Battery ElectricVehiclesAccording to this research BEVswill account for less than 5 of the new lightvehicle market by 2020 It also highlighted thetwo well-known challenges facing BEVsbattery cost and range
In an effort to overcome these issues severalcompanies say they are at an advanced stage inthe development of wireless or inductivecharging for cars trucks and buses Megatrendsspoke to three players in this field to find outhow feasible the technology really is
Another challenge that EVs face is the publicperception of their safety On page 34
Andrew Hooker of the UKrsquos ThatchamResearch tells Megatrends about the safetyaspects of vehicles with electrified powertrains
Thatcham one of Euro NCAPrsquos-accreditedtest labs also specialises in autonomousemergency braking Although not required bylaw AEB will be included in Euro NCAPrsquos testsfrom 2014 AEB has however been mandatedfor heavy trucks and buses in Europe from late2013 and NHTSA is considering mandating itfor trucks in the US On page 43 DelphirsquosMike Thoeny talks to Megatrends about thistechnology which he says ldquowill truly have ameasurable impact on road safetyrdquo
Based on the findings of the aforementioned20 country EVs report therersquos much to bedone to turn EVs into the zero emissionvehicles that they are marketed as Howeverin terms of reducing emissions and improvingthe efficiency of light vehicles Fordrsquos Directorof Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering Dr Andreas Schamel believesthe internal combustion engine still has a longhealthy future ahead of it but only if itincorporates some form of electrification Onpage 5 Schamel shares his thoughts onincorporating more efficient energy strategiesinto powertrain architecture For thesuppliersrsquo view Megatrends spoke toSchaefflerrsquos VP of Corporate EngineeringRobert Plank who was also one of thepanellists at the first Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture Joining Plank in thedebate about the growing importance oflubricants in improving powertrain efficiencywere Shellrsquos Selda Gunsel Professor GordonMurray and executives from Scuderia Ferrariand Infineum Read our report on page 18
We hope you enjoy this issue of Megatrendsmagazine and as always we welcome yourthoughts and suggestions email us atmegatrendsautomotiveworldcom
Martin KahlMartin KahlEditor Automotive World
Editors welcome
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Subscriptions and AdvertisingGavin Dobsongavindobsonautomotiveworldcom
Copyright Automotive World Ltd 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
How far do you think enginedownsizing can go without affectingperformance
This will change as technology progressesNot only are you getting diminishing returnswhen you over-downsize you actually get theopposite effect Theres a certain amount ofoptimum downsizing at the current level oftechnology and thats about where we arewith the 10-litre in its applications for B-carC-car up to entry level CD car With thecurrent set of technologies we wouldnrsquot put itinto anything heavier or more aggressiveFrom a pure performance standpoint thatsnot really the limiting factor and the questionis are you really gaining fuel economyBecause if you push the horsepower higheryou need to lower the compression ratio withthe current set and you need to make surethe bottom end launchability or drive-awayisnt negatively affected
Overall you dont necessarily get a betterCO2 value proposition Having said thatthere are technology enhancements in thepipeline which will move that border a bitfurther but not infinitely And there is a limitto how small you can make an engine I cantreally see us going for mainstreamapplications much smaller than a 10-litreengine And if you reduce the single cylinderdisplacement further you get into thermaldynamic losses and the equation isnt reallythat good If you go further down than athree-cylinder then NVH negative effects andfiring frequency get in the way of a reallyenjoyable product
Would you consider using a two-cylinder engine in a very small car
We have done some benchmarking on two-cylinder engine technology and we are notreally impressed There are other means ofgetting extra fuel efficiency out of the currentpackage if you donrsquot need the performance Sorather than going physically smaller we wouldprobably go towards a Miller cycle highcompression ratio application so that youhave extra fuel economy without any furtherdetrimental effects which you would get if yougo down in cylinder count
Thats at least when youre talking about thecombustion engine as the main or onlypropulsion system The answer could bedifferent in a plug-in hybrid or any kind of aconcept like that where you dont necessarilyhave the engine running in its full operatingspeed range
Are you pursuing cylinderdeactivation at Ford
On a three-cylinder its somewhat tricky Iwouldnt say totally unfeasible but normallycylinder deactivation only works with aneven number of cylinders because youwould typically switch off half of thecylinders If you try to do it with an unevennumber of cylinders you either need todevelop a very interesting but complexconcept that enables you to alternate withevery single cycle which cylinder you aredeactivating or you get into a completelyinfeasible firing frequency So effectively it
then feels to the customer like something iswrong with the engine You are misfiringYoure leaving out one of the combustionstrokes On our three-cylinder EcoBoost wehave made the engine small enough Wedont need to deactivate The benefits ofdeactivation are really to be found in largerengines
Are you therefore focusing on the10-litre three-cylinder strategyrather than deactivation higher up inthe range
Well higher up in thedisplacement range Iwouldnt necessarilycompletely dismiss it Itis all a question of theorder in which youdeploy the technologyelements to get fueleconomy Logically youare doing it in the order of Athe customer has the maximumbenefit and the customer has fundriving and B you are doing it in anaffordable manner so the customercan still afford the car On that scalethe cylinder deactivation wasnt thenext logical step for us but it couldbe in the future
There are several interestingcompanies developing opposedcylinder layouts or different enginearchitectures Is that somethingthats being considered at Ford
Those concepts are something that weconstantly look at and we have the necessarydialogue with all of those companies to makesure we stay on top It is difficult to competewith an architecture approach which has morethan 100 years of development history tocome up with something new which is reallybetter in all aspects without having otherside-effects Even if you find a concept whichhas a theoretical advantage the investmentneeded to implement an entirely differentmanufacturing strategy usually makes it cost-prohibitive
I am not denying those concepts a future roleIt is just a matter of which concept whenwhat scale what is the path to market if itmakes sense Some concepts can be dismissedbecause there are crazy claims out therewhich just dont hang together Some of themwould have to reinvent some of the groundrules of the universe and those kinds of ideaswe do dismiss - I am not wasting myengineers time on it Some concepts outthere are credible and just have realisationinvestment or commercialisation issues
Youve talked in the past about howyou see the internal combustionengine having a good long futureahead of it but that it will comewith some assistance Can yououtline a little bit what youunderstand by that
I often get asked about electrification versusinternal combustion and its just not a questionof the one versus the other If you look at thecomplete spectrum of offerings out there onlythe pure battery electric does not have acombustion engine Everything else out therewhether it is range extender plug-in hybridhybrids they all have a combustion engine andthey are all - as far as the element of propulsionwhich comes from the combustion isconcerned - only as good as the energyconversion of the combustion engine So fromthat aspect theres still a great need to developinternal combustion engines The developmentfocus is slightly different in a highly electrifiedpowertrain compared to a mildly-electrified ornon-electrified powertrain Look at our 10-litreEcoBoost it uses stopstart which is microelectrification As you move up the ladder youwill find more electrification getting into thespectrum What you are not doing even on themost efficient combustion engine is recoupingthe energy which youre otherwise wasting onbraking In the future I see that aspect ofelectrification as the very minimum level ofelectrification in the mainstream The dynamic
part of your driving pattern should not bewasted in the brakes
So there are two key areaswhere energy could be
recaptured thermal dynamicsand braking
Yes In terms of the combustionengine including transmission the
focus has always been on the efficiencyof primary conversion of fuel turningthe chemical energy into mechanical
energy and getting it to the wheelseffectively getting the maximum number of
calories stored in your fuel onto the road forpropulsion But regardless of how muchenergy you get there the first time you brakeyou are heating up your brake pads with thatvery valuable kinetic energy So thatssomething which in the long run we need togo after And that will not be to the detrimentof the combustion engine it will be in synergywith the combustion engine and will augment
that part which you wont get out of even themost efficient combustion engine becausetheres no backward pass Its not like you canuse the wheels to drive the transmission toactually have the engine producing fuel
How does the work that youredoing for future powertraintechnology tie in with the researchinto use of new materials likecarbon bre or ultra-high strengthsteel lighter materials aluminium
It does tie in significantly We started thedialogue on how much downsizing is comingand the way we are looking at that is in ametric we call lsquoD over Mrsquo - displacement overmass of the vehicle With a given set oftechnologies you reach acceptable limits onhow far you can go down with thedisplacement of the engine relative to theweight of the vehicle So yes you can workwith the displacement but you can also workwith the weight and clearly lightweightplatforms lightweight materials next-generation vehicle platforms play an importantrole in enabling engine downsizing
Another important factor is intelligent trafficmanagement If you know what traffic iscoming then you dont have to waste theenergy Telematics and vehicle communicationsare key elements in addition to weightreduction and conventional fuel efficiencystrategies
In the short term where do youexpect to make the big CO2 savings
There isnt really one thing I could point toThere are still significant gains to be made inboth gasoline and diesel technology We dosee now the hybridised vehicles coming intoEurope and there is still potential in the nextgeneration of vehicles as well but the nextround of CO2 reduction will be in systemsengineering gaining 1 here and 15 thereWe call it ECOnetic Technology a bundle ofsmall gains and savings which together makedouble-digit differences
InterviewDr Andreas Schamel FordDirector Global Powertrain Research and Advanced Engineering
On 1 October 2012 Andreas Schamel was appointed as Fordrsquos firstEuropean-based director of Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering In addition to leading Fordrsquos global powertrain activitiesSchamel will retain his position as joint Managing Director of FordrsquosEuropean Research Centre in Aachen Germany - a role he shares with Pimvan der Jagt He will remain based in Aachen Germany
Here Dr Schamel shares his thoughts on incorporating more efficientenergy strategies into powertrain architecture
Martin Kahl
Ford Focus 10-litre EcoBoost
2011 Ford F-150 35-litre EcoBoost engine
Rethink Redesign Revolutionize With DSMrsquos high-performing plastics you can design cars that not only cost less to produce but are stronger lighter and more fuel e cient than ever before Itrsquos how DSMrsquos Bright Science is helping car manufacturers worldwide balance better performance with the drive for sustainability And design cars with built-in pro tability
Visit our new automotive market site to learn more about our weight saving solutionsWWWDSMCOMAUTOMOTIVE
For him Bright Science means new ways to lightweighthis designs
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
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P3 Speakers at Megatrends
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opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
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Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
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anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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37
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ats Th lsoab
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ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
d ank acrractmnfornformIontlltiilbufllfsettseictoduprproduhettheastan
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6
onsigulatd re
onitising compet
nt- on iattorspanrteerf
44
56
49
23
28
19
67
68
84
eg
84
d rd regs anollTTollesirriuntuntrco
ely a keynitiffis deiti
e bele a whie a whilakt
Acc ntdeiAcc - eerreeffreaoprropEuhetn i
a e of orore of e marare monulatieg tbig
denrrentely a key
erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
oniattorortspanrranttree nitiffis deincialsolllld wid wilanttkeararken mea
an
l
opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
ngowiowinge gre growiarare grs erers lllwiwiltitbustkeEuof
ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
How far do you think enginedownsizing can go without affectingperformance
This will change as technology progressesNot only are you getting diminishing returnswhen you over-downsize you actually get theopposite effect Theres a certain amount ofoptimum downsizing at the current level oftechnology and thats about where we arewith the 10-litre in its applications for B-carC-car up to entry level CD car With thecurrent set of technologies we wouldnrsquot put itinto anything heavier or more aggressiveFrom a pure performance standpoint thatsnot really the limiting factor and the questionis are you really gaining fuel economyBecause if you push the horsepower higheryou need to lower the compression ratio withthe current set and you need to make surethe bottom end launchability or drive-awayisnt negatively affected
Overall you dont necessarily get a betterCO2 value proposition Having said thatthere are technology enhancements in thepipeline which will move that border a bitfurther but not infinitely And there is a limitto how small you can make an engine I cantreally see us going for mainstreamapplications much smaller than a 10-litreengine And if you reduce the single cylinderdisplacement further you get into thermaldynamic losses and the equation isnt reallythat good If you go further down than athree-cylinder then NVH negative effects andfiring frequency get in the way of a reallyenjoyable product
Would you consider using a two-cylinder engine in a very small car
We have done some benchmarking on two-cylinder engine technology and we are notreally impressed There are other means ofgetting extra fuel efficiency out of the currentpackage if you donrsquot need the performance Sorather than going physically smaller we wouldprobably go towards a Miller cycle highcompression ratio application so that youhave extra fuel economy without any furtherdetrimental effects which you would get if yougo down in cylinder count
Thats at least when youre talking about thecombustion engine as the main or onlypropulsion system The answer could bedifferent in a plug-in hybrid or any kind of aconcept like that where you dont necessarilyhave the engine running in its full operatingspeed range
Are you pursuing cylinderdeactivation at Ford
On a three-cylinder its somewhat tricky Iwouldnt say totally unfeasible but normallycylinder deactivation only works with aneven number of cylinders because youwould typically switch off half of thecylinders If you try to do it with an unevennumber of cylinders you either need todevelop a very interesting but complexconcept that enables you to alternate withevery single cycle which cylinder you aredeactivating or you get into a completelyinfeasible firing frequency So effectively it
then feels to the customer like something iswrong with the engine You are misfiringYoure leaving out one of the combustionstrokes On our three-cylinder EcoBoost wehave made the engine small enough Wedont need to deactivate The benefits ofdeactivation are really to be found in largerengines
Are you therefore focusing on the10-litre three-cylinder strategyrather than deactivation higher up inthe range
Well higher up in thedisplacement range Iwouldnt necessarilycompletely dismiss it Itis all a question of theorder in which youdeploy the technologyelements to get fueleconomy Logically youare doing it in the order of Athe customer has the maximumbenefit and the customer has fundriving and B you are doing it in anaffordable manner so the customercan still afford the car On that scalethe cylinder deactivation wasnt thenext logical step for us but it couldbe in the future
There are several interestingcompanies developing opposedcylinder layouts or different enginearchitectures Is that somethingthats being considered at Ford
Those concepts are something that weconstantly look at and we have the necessarydialogue with all of those companies to makesure we stay on top It is difficult to competewith an architecture approach which has morethan 100 years of development history tocome up with something new which is reallybetter in all aspects without having otherside-effects Even if you find a concept whichhas a theoretical advantage the investmentneeded to implement an entirely differentmanufacturing strategy usually makes it cost-prohibitive
I am not denying those concepts a future roleIt is just a matter of which concept whenwhat scale what is the path to market if itmakes sense Some concepts can be dismissedbecause there are crazy claims out therewhich just dont hang together Some of themwould have to reinvent some of the groundrules of the universe and those kinds of ideaswe do dismiss - I am not wasting myengineers time on it Some concepts outthere are credible and just have realisationinvestment or commercialisation issues
Youve talked in the past about howyou see the internal combustionengine having a good long futureahead of it but that it will comewith some assistance Can yououtline a little bit what youunderstand by that
I often get asked about electrification versusinternal combustion and its just not a questionof the one versus the other If you look at thecomplete spectrum of offerings out there onlythe pure battery electric does not have acombustion engine Everything else out therewhether it is range extender plug-in hybridhybrids they all have a combustion engine andthey are all - as far as the element of propulsionwhich comes from the combustion isconcerned - only as good as the energyconversion of the combustion engine So fromthat aspect theres still a great need to developinternal combustion engines The developmentfocus is slightly different in a highly electrifiedpowertrain compared to a mildly-electrified ornon-electrified powertrain Look at our 10-litreEcoBoost it uses stopstart which is microelectrification As you move up the ladder youwill find more electrification getting into thespectrum What you are not doing even on themost efficient combustion engine is recoupingthe energy which youre otherwise wasting onbraking In the future I see that aspect ofelectrification as the very minimum level ofelectrification in the mainstream The dynamic
part of your driving pattern should not bewasted in the brakes
So there are two key areaswhere energy could be
recaptured thermal dynamicsand braking
Yes In terms of the combustionengine including transmission the
focus has always been on the efficiencyof primary conversion of fuel turningthe chemical energy into mechanical
energy and getting it to the wheelseffectively getting the maximum number of
calories stored in your fuel onto the road forpropulsion But regardless of how muchenergy you get there the first time you brakeyou are heating up your brake pads with thatvery valuable kinetic energy So thatssomething which in the long run we need togo after And that will not be to the detrimentof the combustion engine it will be in synergywith the combustion engine and will augment
that part which you wont get out of even themost efficient combustion engine becausetheres no backward pass Its not like you canuse the wheels to drive the transmission toactually have the engine producing fuel
How does the work that youredoing for future powertraintechnology tie in with the researchinto use of new materials likecarbon bre or ultra-high strengthsteel lighter materials aluminium
It does tie in significantly We started thedialogue on how much downsizing is comingand the way we are looking at that is in ametric we call lsquoD over Mrsquo - displacement overmass of the vehicle With a given set oftechnologies you reach acceptable limits onhow far you can go down with thedisplacement of the engine relative to theweight of the vehicle So yes you can workwith the displacement but you can also workwith the weight and clearly lightweightplatforms lightweight materials next-generation vehicle platforms play an importantrole in enabling engine downsizing
Another important factor is intelligent trafficmanagement If you know what traffic iscoming then you dont have to waste theenergy Telematics and vehicle communicationsare key elements in addition to weightreduction and conventional fuel efficiencystrategies
In the short term where do youexpect to make the big CO2 savings
There isnt really one thing I could point toThere are still significant gains to be made inboth gasoline and diesel technology We dosee now the hybridised vehicles coming intoEurope and there is still potential in the nextgeneration of vehicles as well but the nextround of CO2 reduction will be in systemsengineering gaining 1 here and 15 thereWe call it ECOnetic Technology a bundle ofsmall gains and savings which together makedouble-digit differences
InterviewDr Andreas Schamel FordDirector Global Powertrain Research and Advanced Engineering
On 1 October 2012 Andreas Schamel was appointed as Fordrsquos firstEuropean-based director of Global Powertrain Research and AdvancedEngineering In addition to leading Fordrsquos global powertrain activitiesSchamel will retain his position as joint Managing Director of FordrsquosEuropean Research Centre in Aachen Germany - a role he shares with Pimvan der Jagt He will remain based in Aachen Germany
Here Dr Schamel shares his thoughts on incorporating more efficientenergy strategies into powertrain architecture
Martin Kahl
Ford Focus 10-litre EcoBoost
2011 Ford F-150 35-litre EcoBoost engine
Rethink Redesign Revolutionize With DSMrsquos high-performing plastics you can design cars that not only cost less to produce but are stronger lighter and more fuel e cient than ever before Itrsquos how DSMrsquos Bright Science is helping car manufacturers worldwide balance better performance with the drive for sustainability And design cars with built-in pro tability
Visit our new automotive market site to learn more about our weight saving solutionsWWWDSMCOMAUTOMOTIVE
For him Bright Science means new ways to lightweighthis designs
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Rethink Redesign Revolutionize With DSMrsquos high-performing plastics you can design cars that not only cost less to produce but are stronger lighter and more fuel e cient than ever before Itrsquos how DSMrsquos Bright Science is helping car manufacturers worldwide balance better performance with the drive for sustainability And design cars with built-in pro tability
Visit our new automotive market site to learn more about our weight saving solutionsWWWDSMCOMAUTOMOTIVE
For him Bright Science means new ways to lightweighthis designs
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
RID
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moctibor
anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
eelfal otT
ghly ef2
3
Hiensild an
nizatbaur
cyenarspanrttee
onissemicientifghly ef - eerfksucrtten
oninizat
37
37
53
28 65
ali
90
iialiecspmore
ciespolin eeGrGreeesiegatrratststr of
ats Th lsoab
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5
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44
56
49
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28
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67
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84
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49 19 68
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Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
MegatrendsMegatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
have demonstrated a 105 of fuel reductionjust by bringing all Schaeffler products togetherin one car
If you do the engineering together and designthe product together then you can ensure thegreatest benefits
Is there a difference in the approachto engine efficiency RampD betweenpassenger cars and commercialvehicles
There are some differences because the costpressure is greater for commercial vehicles Youhave to consider the whole lifecycle of the truckincluding total cost of ownership and fueleconomy improvement
Do you see a similar differencebetween premium and sports carbrands and mainstream brands inthe passenger car segment
In terms of fuel economy the premium brands
are always ahead with the others following
What is the reason for that Is itdown to nancial strength
No its a brand and leadership thing Look atBMW Daimler Audi and Volkswagen they tryto be in front and the most efficient and otherstry to follow
What opportunities remain forimproving the fuel efficiency and fueleconomy of light vehicles andcommercial vehicles
What is left is to look at the hidden and minorthings We need to look at the whole systemand look at every point where there are energylosses then try to find the best solution andadapt it to the application There is no standardsolution any more
And does that apply just as much forlight vehicles as for heavycommercial vehicles
Yes I think that what we see in optimising lightvehicles is coming to commercial vehicles a littlelater
Finally what future do you see forthe combustion engine and do youanticipate electrication playing animportant role
Yes We will see combustion engines for another50 years But we will see hybridisation andelectrification for sure It makes sense tooptimise combustion engines because there isstill potential in there but we are also workingon electrification We have some prototypesrunning with electrified axles and also in-wheelmotor prototypes But the next step is probablythe electrical and engine motors together withcombustion motors to drive the efficiency andenable cars to enter big polluted cities in thefuture
So we will see everything We also will see pureelectrification which can be more efficient byreducing friction but it will take some time
What role can suppliers likeSchaeffler play in improving fuelefficiency and reducing emissions
Schaeffler came out of the components sectorand stepped up into modules and systems Wehave a system understanding so we can be anengineering partner to OEMs And with ourcomponents being everywhere there is motionwe can contribute in numerous ways to reducefriction for example There are three areas orcolumns where we can eliminate lossesreduction of forces optimising the contact andavoiding motion
Can you please outline those threecolumns in more detail
If we talk about reducing forces the first thingyou can do is reduce weight One examplewould be by optimising the pre-load in thebearing through the arrangement of the bearingor by choosing the right bearings in a gearboxSealing is another area 50 of the energyconsumption of a bearing comes out of thesealing so if you reduce the pre-load oroptimise the geometry of the sealing then youcan reduce the friction We have developeda friction-optimised wheel bearing and wereduced the friction of the seal by 50 and wereduced the friction by optimising the geometryof the bearing by another 10
We reduced the friction by 30 in total whichrelates to 02 in the NEDC which is a smallamount but used on everyvehicle that would lead to asignificant CO2 reductionThe effect is bigger if youput those bearings intransmissions for example Thenyou can reduce in a differentialgearbox up to 15 just byreplacing the bearings with a doublerow of ball bearings We proved this and it
is in series production This shows that the rightarrangement and optimisation of the bearingscan deliver noticeable benefits So this is the firstcolumn
The second is optimising the contact We knowthat we need lubricant and we have two metalsurfaces so now you can optimise the geometryof the bearing itself You also can optimise themicro geometry like surface roughness andcoating And then you can optimise the materialand the lubricant and generally influence thefriction coefficient
And thirdly you can avoid the motion throughelectrification power on demand or cylinderdeactivation
With OEMs pressuring suppliers toreduce costs how can a company likeSchaeffler afford to carry out the
sort of RampD thatyou think is
required
We have our own programme and strategy Wefocus on our products and we think in systemsWe try to be on the same level of engineeringas our customers so we can explain to themhow our products could contribute to andimprove their system like a powertrain or anengine or a vehicle We are a very innovativecompany Every year we spend roughly 5 ofour sales on RampD Last year we registered 1800patents and we have 18000 patents in placeWe try to be innovative and drive our productsforward to help our customers meetrequirements
Do you feel that suppliers arebrought into the design anddevelopment phases early enoughor would you like to be brought insooner
We have a portfolio which engineers can justpick out of a catalogue Of course we haveenergy efficient bearings but the benefitscould be greater if we were in the game andthe greatest benefit comes from workingtogether from the very early stages Some
customers do that with us And we
InterviewRobert Plank Schaeffler TechnologiesVice President of Corporate Engineering
A glance at Schaefflerrsquos offerings at the 2013 North American International Auto Show in Detroitillustrates how this supplier has evolved from being known as a bearings supplier to a supplier ofmodules and systems Robert Plank Vice President of Corporate Engineering talked to Megatrendsabout the companys evolution as an automotive engineering partner
Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom 10
ldquordquo
Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
POWER TRAIN AND CHASSIS SOLUTIONS FOR
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YOU CAN SEEOUR THINKING
ENGINEERING ADVANTAGE
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High cycle lifeDURABLE
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Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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44
56
49
23
28
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84
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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13 $1313
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)((
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
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imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
12Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 201311 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Navigate the heavily pot-holed track that leadsoff the Chennai highway to an industrial parkon the outskirts of Oragadam and yoursquoll find alow-roofed factory set in immaculatelylandscaped grounds Here Delphi-TVSmanufactures complete diesel common railsincluding filters pumps rails and injectors
The fruit of the close relationship begun byLucas and TVS in 1961 Delphi-TVS has around1000 employees and a turnover ofapproximately Rs 1000 crores (US$1879m)At 52 Delphi has the controlling share ofthe JV which focuses on the development andproduction of diesel fuel injection equipmentand although a large percentage of its businessis derived from car and light commercialvehicle common rail systems it also suppliesBharat 5 (Euro V) common rail systems for 50and 80-litre trucks
Whatrsquos interesting about this joint venture isthat it illustrates what can happen when oneof the largest global Tier One supplierspartners successfully with a major Indianautomotive company - in this case Indiarsquoslargest The TVS Group which employs over40000 people worldwide and claims aturnover in excess of US$4bn operates in amultitude of areas including motorcycles carcomponents computer peripherals and heavy
commercial vehicles as well as passenger cardistribution finance and insurance
The Delphi-TVS JV benefits both parties withDelphirsquos global technology engineeringcapabilities and international reputationcomplemented by the local knowledgereputation and market reachthroughout India of TVS
Growth
Delphi-TVS operates three plants at Mannurand Oragadam near Chennai and at PantNagar in Uttarakhand Huge expansion istaking place at the Oragadam factory twonew manufacturing halls are being added totake the sitersquos total to
How a global Tier One found
something in common (rail)
with Indiarsquos largest supplier
The well-established joint venture in India between Delphi andIndiarsquos TVS merges global technology with the market presenceof a respected domestic automotive supplier Megatrendsspent a day with senior executives at Delphi-TVS to discuss howeach party benefits from this joint venture
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
three increasing the plantrsquos capacitysignificantly This includes a doubling of theplantrsquos capacity for low-pressure carburisingthe heat treatment coating technique whichwhilst already employed by other companiesis used to unique effect by Delphi-TVS atOragadam
Well protected from the dust and heatmanufacturing takes place in autonomousproduction units (APUs) where cleanlinessand pinpoint accuracy are crucial This isespecially important for the production andassembly of the nozzles and injectorsmachined on-site
These parts play a crucial role in meeting theincreased pressures that common rail systemsneed to operate under to meet Bharat IV
Common rail is of great interest andimportance to the Indian market where thegrowth of diesel has accelerated enormouslyin the last two years
While the political debate continues aboutwhether or not the fuel should be subsidiseddiesel car sales remain strong thanks toattractive pump prices which put diesel ataround 30 cheaper than gasoline Commonrail is a good way to meet Bharat 4 and 5(Euro 4 and 5) legislation say experts atDelphi-TVS and the NVH performance ofdiesel cars is almost as good as gasoline carsnow thanks again to common rail
Today UPCR Tomorrow the world
As outlined later this JV is best portrayed by ajointly-developed product the Unit PumpCommon Rail or UPCR The UPCR wasdeveloped in India by Delphi-TVS specificallyfor use in smaller mainstream and lower-endemerging market vehicles Intended for smallthree and four-wheeled vehicles with one tothree-cylinder engines it is a low-costadaptation of Delphirsquos advanced common railtechnology designed to meet Euro 4
The successful development adaptation andcommercialisation of the UPCR illustrateshow India can be a driver of productdevelopment for other emerging marketsaround the world TK Balaji the ManagingDirector of Delphi-TVS Diesel Systemsagrees ldquoIn the coming years I definitely seeIndia playing a rolerdquo he says
ldquoThe Indian market is a highly value-consciousmarket Affordability is critical here so peopleare very price-conscious In the passenger carindustry the small car segment dominates Theupper end segments are there but theyre not
the dominant segment of the market But theconsumers are demanding the same kind oftechnologies and quality as you see in thehigh-end cars so more and more innovationsare likely to take place to make that happenThis could be a great opportunity for usrdquo
This is where the JV can exploit the fact thatone partner is a global supplier ldquoDelphi is ableto deliver that The case in point is the UPCRwhich we developed together That is nowbeing developed further to supply to othermarketsrdquo The majority of Delphi-TVSproduction is sold in India but with theexpansion at the Oragadam plant it isreasonable to expect the facility to be usedfor export
In the Indian market the best business to behad is in the key cost-sensitive mainstream Ato C segments Whilst Delphi-TVS needs totarget these segments for the volume is therean opportunity for the JV to also targetpremium models as Delphi does in maturemarkets
ldquoIt is an evolutionrdquo says Balaji ldquoOne has towait and see It could happen We aresupplying in India identical products that aresupplied in Europe We are also developinginnovative low cost productsrdquo
Engineering the engineers of tomorrow
Although the potential may exist for India tobe a leading source of product developmentfor global emerging markets the necessaryinfrastructure needs to be in place to produceengineers who can compete on an
international level Does India have theappropriate systems in place ldquoThat is a veryinteresting perceptive question about Indiardquosays Balaji ldquoIf you go on the basis of what is inplace now and whether it could happen youwill never answer that question
ldquoIndia is full of entrepreneurship Take thesoftware industry over 20 years it hastransformed from nothing into a hugeindustry not only creating significant valuehere but also globally I think you can never saywhat will happen in the future based on whatis there today Theres a great capacity here toexecute What we are not so good at still isdeveloping breakthrough technologies Butwere very good at absorbing technology andimplementing it in a lower-cost mannerrdquo
But Balaji remains hopeful that breakthroughtechnologies can come out of India ldquoI think itwill happen one of these daysrdquo he says ldquoWhenyou have highly competitive forces at play aswe do in India innovation has to thriveInnovation becomes an intense competitivepressure where somebody has to dosomething different So really all theingredients are there for it everybody is hereand everybody is trying to get a share of themarket Theres intense competition andsomebody will inevitably come up withinnovative ideas Its just a question of timerdquo
And the development of emissions regulationsoffers opportunities to companies like Delphi-TVS Balaji says ldquoToday India is at Euro IV Sowe are just one generation behind Europe interms of emissions standards By 2020 I thinkwe will be on a par [with Europe]rdquo
Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) test bench
The three cylinder Unit Pump Common Rail (UPCR) system was developed in India for smallervehicles at the lower end of the market
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
13 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The quality issue
One of the biggest challenges that a supplierlike Delphi-TVS faces in the Indian marketsays Balaji is quality ldquoWhile there have beenbig strides in quality in the last several yearsin India we still have some way to go vis-agrave-visinternational best practices The zero defectconcepts that are in place all over the worldhave not become commonplace in IndiaThroughout the entire infrastructure of Indiafrom discipline through to power issuesthere are so many things that get in the wayof achieving this goal But the desire toachieve it is widely prevalent compared tosay ten or 15 years ago Today employees nolonger ask why they should do things Theyrecognise that they have to be done but theyare struggling to reach that goal I think thatsgoing to be a big issue I am confident we willget there its just going to take timerdquo
A mutually-beneficial partnership
Delphi and TVS have highly complementaryskills says Balaji The many years of presence
in the Indian market gives TVS extensiverelationships with all customers in Indiaincluding international customers ldquoWe alsohave extensive aftermarket distribution andservicingrdquo
Meanwhile Delphirsquos technology leadership hasenabled Delphi-TVS to become a key high-tech supplier ldquoIt would have been impossiblebut for the support fromLucas initially and nowDelphirdquo says Balaji ldquoDelphihas such a depth oftechnology in so many fieldsthere is so much we can learnfrom them There is so muchopportunity in this marketthat it is limited only to theimagination of the people whoare running the business It alldepends how open-mindedpeople can berdquo
Delphi-TVS is a successfullong-standing JV that bringstogether global technology
with a respected local market leader Thebenefits to each party are clear but lookingto the future Delphi-TVS needs to ensure itis seen as more than Delphirsquos lsquoIndiaoperationrsquo ldquoAnd we have to play a part inthatrdquo says Balaji ldquoIt all depends on how TVScreates opportunities with Delphi and forDelphi to take advantage of thoseopportunities and vice-versardquo
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Picture a world in which you can purchase asingle ticket for national or internationaltravel and receive with it detailed door-to-door journey information for your best routebefore you leave the house with on-demandflexibility allowing you to change your mind
A lsquomobility integratorrsquo is a step closer to thisconcept of totally integrated multi-modaldoor-to-door travel Frost amp Sullivan hasidentified a number of scenarios businessmodels and early examples of this conceptwhereby one or several organisationscombine various modes of transportation andproducts to offer such a solution This couldbe through using a mobile or web-basedplatform to bring together technologicaladvances in data processing or analytics andcombine real time information and ticketingoptions through a smartphone or smartcardfor example
This is already beginning to interest severalstakeholders across industries particularlytransport operators technology providers carmanufacturers and fleet leasing companies allof which are starting to offer products andservices further away from their core businessmodels
A number of mega trends underpin thisparadigm shift from considering single modes oftransportation to a combination mobilitynetwork For example consumers are startingto question the need for car ownershipincreasingly opting for on-demand usage
through car sharing clubs and public transportuse Partially driven by cost considerationsimprovements to infrastructure in increasinglyurbanised areas government legislation andmost importantly the transmission of real timeinformation on the go - facilitated byconnectivity - this gives us the opportunity totravel more conveniently and rationally usingthe best available option However many ofthese options are still considered in silos andthere is growing demand to piece the variousmobility aspects together as a packagedoffering
Mobility integration and door-to-door travelrather than station-to-station or point-to-point is not restricted to any one sectorplayer or industry It offers severalopportunities in an ever-growing supply chainand requires a collaborative effort between anumber of different players and stakeholdersfor the benefits to be realised
However this also presents one of the keychallenges for successful mobility integrationeither increased industry convergence isrequired or a third party operator willing andable to enhance the opening of data and toleverage the enhanced technology available topiece it together Solutions include journeyplanning and mobile applications integratedePayment methods and location-basedservices But generally mobility integrationmust be underpinned by a flexible convenientoption of travel that optimises the availableinfrastructure Early examples of this in the
business to consumer (B2C) market can beseen in France where transport operatorVeolia Transdevrsquos Urban Pulse mobileapplication combines travel planning and ridesharing with city-based shopping deals localevents and information on the location offriends via geosocialisation Likewise Daimlerrsquosrecently launched moovel application inGermany compares modes of transport for adoor-to-door journey and provides a bookingservice
Whilst B2C solutions receive considerablepress coverage due to their mass marketappeal and convenience there is potentially alarger and more profitable opportunityemerging to provide integrated mobility forthe business-to-business (B2B) market Withincreased focus on and regulation ofcorporate social responsibility cost reductionand convenience and efficiency of employeesseveral organisations are now beginning toconsider new mobility business models andbudgets for employees rather than simplyproviding a car or free reign on corporatetravel In response fleet leasing companieshave diversified their offerings
Leaseplan for example offers a service calledMobility Mixx in the Netherlands providing acard that allows employees to pay for longdistance travel car sharing and rental publictransport parking and even refuelling it alsotakes the administrative process out of houseby issuing a post-use invoice Of coursereducing the time spent on expenses
administration can save considerable costs forwhich companies would be willing to pay apremium
Also in the Netherlands the NS-Business cardlaunched by NS trains allows all modes oftravel to be placed on a single invoice againproviding significant administrative benefitsand more importantly convenient travelacross the entire country whilst also allowinguse of additional services such as short-termoffice space rental or access to business classlounges These solutions represent the mostcomprehensive mobility integration solutioncurrently on the market
As part of a recent report on mobilityintegration Frost amp Sullivan has identifiedthree different business models namelyMobility Integrator (MI) Mobility Aggregator(MA) and Mobility Player (MP) Each modeldiffers primarily on the role that a particularstakeholder in a value chain plays and also onthe host of mobility services that are offered
A Mobility Integrator would link every modeof transport whether it operates them or notand would be seen by the consumer as thepoint of reference for their journey andassociated services For example theaforementioned NS-Business card allowsusers to rent office space from Regus as theMI - this service would be seen to be offeredby NS rather than Regus The business modelfor doing so could be either through apercentage of revenue sharing licensing orfixed cost annual agreement
A Mobility Aggregator would provide severaltravel related services for example a leasingfirm offering rental of all types of vehiclesintegrated with public transport networks
A Mobility Player would be relatively moreconservative offering services close to thecurrent business model For example anautomotive manufacturer may open itsproduct portfolio to allow flexible usage ofseveral models rather than fixed use of oneproduct such as the recent BMW on Demandor Mu by Peugeot services
The future is set to provide a continuedfocus on integrated multi-modal and on-demand mobility solutions exploiting thetrend towards the sharing economy andcontinued technology improvement In theshort term this is set to include efforts suchas more sophisticated journey planningtools and applications smart parking and abetter understanding of nearest transportservices through continued smartphoneproliferation
However in the long term this could lead tocomplete efficient citywide national or eveninternational mobility solutions provided thedata is openly available With several largeorganisations across the automotivetransportation technology and infrastructuremarkets now viewing mobility as a long termpattern it is surely only a matter of time untilwe see more fully integrated mobilitysolutions across the globe
Sarwant Singh is a Partner and Global PracticeDirector of Frost amp Sullivanrsquos Automotive ampTransportation Practice He is author of lsquoNewMega Trends Implications for our Future Livesrsquo
Martyn Briggs is Mobility Programme Managerat Frost amp Sullivan and manages strategic mobilityresearch and consulting assignments helpingclients identify growth potential through leveragingtechnology and new business models
Mobility integration a step
closer to multi-modal door-
to-door travel
Sarwant Singh and Martyn BriggsFrost amp Sullivan
1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
years and where
connected car technology
fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
Global NCAP IIHS NHTSA and ErnstampYoung
Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
Fleet management
Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
Lightweighting
automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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copy2013 Cummins Inc Box 3005 Columbus IN 47202-3005 USA
Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
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imite
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ight
s Re
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ed
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
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AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
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- Part Submission Warrant
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1Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
By 2050 the worldrsquos population is expected toreach nine billion As a result urbanisation isincreasing and so too is the demand forpersonal mobility Global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050 and as moreenergy usage means more CO2 emissionsthere is a need for new clean energy The bestsolution is to use existing energy in the mostefficient way - so began Dr Selda Gunsel VicePresident of Shell Global CommercialTechnology at the inaugural Shell LubricantsTechnology Lecture held at Imperial Collegein London in late 2012
Power generation accounts for one third oftotal emissions and transport accounts forone fifth of total energy consumption saidGunsel Yet while new and alternative vehiclepowertrain technologies are exciting twothirds of cars will still use internal combustionengines (ICEs) in 2050
20 of the energy produced by an engine islost through friction For this reasonlubricants can play a key role in improving fuelefficiency and helping to reduce CO2
emissions According to Gunsel Shell hasdeveloped breakthrough engineering solutionslike a split-lubrication system and low-viscosity synthetic lubricants However inorder to bring these to market ldquosome of theexisting industry specifications need to changeAnd all parts of the industry need to worktogether - we cannot bring it to marketwithout partnershipsrdquo
Joining Gunsel at the event were seniorexecutives from suppliers and OEMs whopresented the case for co-development oflubricants and the need to change currentindustry specifications to enable the use ofsynthetic and low-viscosity lubricants thatcould play a role in improving engine efficiencyand reducing CO2 emissions
Here wersquove collated thoughts from Dr SeldaGunsel Robert Plank Vice President of CorporateEngineering Schaeffler Technologies Dave SaltersHead of Engine Development Scuderia FerrariMark Struglinski Vice President of Infineum andProfessor Gordon Murray on the growingimportance of lubricants in the automotive industry
Lubricants as a vehicle designparameter
Collaboration between Gordon MurrayDesign (GMD) and Shell Lubricants last yearled to the development of an innovativeconcept engine lubricant in GMDrsquos T25 citycar capable of achieving a 65 improvementin fuel efficiency - a step up compared to theimprovements of around 25 achieved intypical fuel economy lubricant developmentprogrammes
Dr Selda Gunsel We need to establishlubricants as a valuable design componentengineered with precision and blended with skill
Professor Gordon Murray Lubricants weresomething that typically got added after yoursquodfinished the design of the car and thats aboutas bad as you can get from a philosophy pointof view So it made us think that we shouldapply the philosophy of working with peoplefrom the beginning on the design in future toincorporate every single thing including thingslike fuels and lubricants And hopefully the
Lubricants a design parameternot an afterthoughtMartin Kahl
Megatrends
Technology RoadmapsAutomotive Worlds Technology Roadmaps investigate critical trends in the global light and
commercial vehicle sectors
Developed using only original research conducted by Automotive World these lsquobig picturersquo
reports contain valuable insight from the automotive industryrsquos most important stakeholders
helping readers to quickly understand the key issues facing the industry over the next ten years
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Automotive World looks at
advances in active and
passive safety in
developed and developing
markets over the next ten
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fits into the picture
Includes exclusive in-depth executive interviews
with BMW Ford Volvo Autoliv Continental
Delphi Automotive Safety Council CLEPA
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Technology Roadmap Battery electric vehicles
This Automotive World
report takes an
independent look at the
role that BEVs might play in
the automotive industry of
the future
Includes new original
interviews with Ford GM
Renault-Nissan Alliance Continental
Delphi GKN Driveline Johnson Controls Better
Place Schneider Electric ACEA OESA
CHAdeMO Frost amp Sullivan and P3 Group
Future Technology Roadmaps by Automotive World
Alternative fuels
Engine downsizing
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Fuel cell vehicles
In-car connectivity
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automotive industry news analysis research and events
Technology Roadmap Light vehicle safety
Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
POWER TRAIN AND CHASSIS SOLUTIONS FOR
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
YOU CAN SEEOUR THINKING
ENGINEERING ADVANTAGE
Engine ndash Multifunction Valve blockValve block
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High cycle lifeDURABLE
Chassis solution
Cab solutionSource Delphi
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First Tiers
OSV Middleware Hardware and Services Suppliers
Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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5
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44
56
49
23
28
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68
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84
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ely a keynitiffis deiti
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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)((
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
20Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
work we do with Shell in the future will gobeyond powertrain and will look at everysingle component of the car which needsfriction reduction
We had to work very closely with ShellLubricantsrsquo engineers and scientists in fact onhow lubricants could affect the engine of theT25 because its a very low viscosity oil andwe had to follow some very strict rules inthe early days until we got enough confidenceto actually run the car in public In the earlydays we were stepping gingerly working veryclosely with Shell engineers and we had toadopt different strategies for warming up andrunning the engine
Robert Plank We see two big areas wherewe can step forward together with lubricantsuppliers One is a basic area when wecompare and benchmark methods andsimulation methods and just together make itmore precise to predict the optimisationeffects we have For example Shell cancontribute to the lubricant simulation and thefeatures of lubricant We can bring in thesurface and the features of the metalcomponents and bringing in both methodstogether we get a better prediction Theother thing that I have learned through theyears is we have to regard the lubricant as adesign parameter from the very beginning Itsalso valid for our components So if we cometogether at the very beginning and takelubricants as a design parameter and bringsurface or coating for example together thenwe can go into another area of optimisation
Dr Selda Gunsel The oil that we developedcurrently sits outside industry-acceptedspecifications Its an extremely low viscosity oil0W-10 these types of oil formulations may beused in racing applications but they are notcommercial oils at this stage The lowestviscosity you can find in the marketplace is the0W-20 grade oil so we need to ensure thatthese types of low viscosity oils can becommercialised in the marketplace but in orderto do that we have to show that these oils aredurable they provide the protection againstwear just like the thicker oils We need to showthat these oils can provide protection that theengine manufacturers need We need to changethe specifications in order for these oils to becommercialised We alone cannot make thespecifications - itrsquos for the whole industry
Now that weve shown that these oils workin a concept application we are working withsome major OEMs who are really interestedin working in this space We are currentlyrunning durability testing which involves
dynamo and lab testing as well as field trialsSo far we are getting very good results inapplications ranging from passenger cars toheavy duty truck applications Durabilityobviously requires time so we need to runthis for a number of years
Professor Gordon Murray For the firsttime ever we can put a price on weightreduction we put it at euro5-euro15 perkilogramme saved on the chassis Onceyouve reduced the mass of the primarystructure you need smaller brakessuspension lighter steering no powersteering in some cases lighter wheelcomponents lighter tyres - and so it goes on
The trickle-down effect applying F1lubricants to mainstream vehicles
Dr Selda Gunsel We work very closely withFerrari Formula One developing the baselubricants engine oils gear oils and fuels This isa great research platform for us because thereare no specifications the only thing is to winWhatever it takes we have a lot of flexibility interms of lubricant formulation gear oilformulation and we design our fluids tooperate under conditions that they would notnormally be able to do - extremetemperatures extreme roads extreme speedWe work really closely and as a result welearn to push our products beyond their designspecifications under the most extremeoperating conditions we take the learnings andbring them to our normal everyday products
Dave Salters We are quite fortunatebecause our objectives are very easy We haveto make the most powerful engines but withthe same volume generally Engine developmentwas frozen for a while but all that meant wasthat we moved on to something else to find anadvantage And the oil and the fuel werenrsquotfrozen The engine is incredibly efficient so wedo everything we can to minimise the losses inthe engine And we dont really have anyconstraints If we can come up with a goodidea and its obtainable or not obtainable butwe make it obtainable we can follow that
Seeking out the small incrementalgains in fuel efficiency
Dr Selda Gunsel The advantage of lubricanttechnology is that it can successfully improvefuel efficiency and thereby help reduce tailgateemissions today rather than waiting for a radicaltechnological development in years to come
Professor Gordon Murray In terms of fueleconomy gains it feels like we have picked
most of the low hanging fruit as far as enginedesign is confirmed Now itrsquos time to focus onthe small details that can make a big difference- and that includes lubricants The work thatShell is doing in advanced lubricantengineering plays a really important role inenabling the kind of innovative and challengingdesign concepts we are developing at GMDto tackle emissions and fuel consumption
Robert Plank We deal with parts thatnobody sees like bearings Tribology andlubricants is one of our core areas and isvery important to us If we look at thewhole powertrain system from thecombustion engine through to thetransmission to the wheels there are a lotof components which are in motion And ifwe talk about the mechanical losses withinthis system there are three ways we canreduce those losses firstly reduce theforces secondly reduce the friction andthirdly avoid use by deactivation power ondemand electrification or by downsizingThese are the three areas throughout thewhole system where we can find places totake small steps to optimise
Mark Struglinski One of the biggestchallenges is to develop an oil that keeps anengine factory-clean Believe it or notnobody has ever done this Its a really toughchallenge A clean engine lasts longer so interms of sustainability you dont have toeither tear the engine down to rebuild it orreplace it Clean engines last longer and havebetter emissions They maintain their factoryemissions properties through the life of theengine so that produces a cleanerenvironment
Without chemical additives your lubricantwonrsquot work The things that you add to theoil to keep it clean also tend to make the fueleconomy worse So we had to find a way tobalance those two to keep the engine cleanbut also to deliver leading edge fuel economyAnd it was a really difficult problem thatneeded some innovative approaches Wecreated a new friction modifier to do thatWe used some chemistry that wouldnttypically be used in these kinds of engine oilsand we actually succeeded - it was launchedlast year into the marketplace
All the low-hanging fruit hasbeen picked Whatrsquos left is a
detailed attack on fuelefficiency
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
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Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
RID
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tkeelevotimotuase
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moctibor
anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
eelfal otT
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Hiensild an
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oninizat
37
37
53
28 65
ali
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ciespolin eeGrGreeesiegatrratststr of
ats Th lsoab
[thaats wTheacrract matorormatnfnforiinf
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lcaittiiely crely criutl
buens behay] mpancorou[[ouanttanmpormportiimporastusjs iis on imatmati
e of ulati tbig
tantmpormports is importictpeesrres
ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
d ank acrractmnfornformIontlltiilbufllfsettseictoduprproduhettheastan
Eurd it
ans ollT
sing competearncI
ntdeiAcc
4
5
6
onsigulatd re
onitising compet
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44
56
49
23
28
19
67
68
84
eg
84
d rd regs anollTTollesirriuntuntrco
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Acc ntdeiAcc - eerreeffreaoprropEuhetn i
a e of orore of e marare monulatieg tbig
denrrentely a key
erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
oniattorortspanrranttree nitiffis deincialsolllld wid wilanttkeararken mea
an
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
ngowiowinge gre growiarare grs erers lllwiwiltitbustkeEuof
ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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13 13131313
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)((
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+
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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013
EYG
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imite
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ight
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ed
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
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ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
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ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
22Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Automotive industry sales and productionare moving very clearly away fromEurope and into emerging markets Is thisbecause Europe as a market is decliningor because of growth in other markets -and why do you think this is happening
That trend has been ongoing for a couple ofyears and has accelerated over the last tenyears Right now we are in the middle of ahuge crisis in Europe but even if Europe wasa growth market the growth is oftenextremely limited while the emergingmarkets are new markets And if you simplylook at the number of cars per 1000
inhabitants in Europe we are at 500 or moreIn countries like Asia excluding Japan andKorea they are well below100 We arelooking at figures like 30 40 50 vehicles per1000 inhabitants so of course the growthpotential is largely in these countries and notany more in Europe or the US although theUS in 2012 did pretty well
In terms of production moving to theseemerging markets you produce where yousell and since the sales are moving there sotoo is the production It avoids theburdensome and expensive logistics ofproducing in Europe and shipping to China for
example There is also the issue of labour andmaterial costs etc which in Western Europeare far more expensive than in these emergingmarkets If we had to use European prices inChina plus transport logistics costs etc itwould simply not be feasible
OICA data published in 2012 showedAsia as the source of 406 millionvehicles up from 165 million units 20years ago How do you see Asiacontinuing to evolve
Take China for example in 2012 we saw thegrowth curve in that major market slowing
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers)global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 31 in 2011reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at thetime of writing but as the US market recovers and the European market declines the BRICS nationscontinue to outperform their individual regions At the same time Asia and parts of Africa show strongpotential and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe tofocus their operations on these growth markets
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten OICArsquos Secretary General and Technical Director abouthow he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Interview Yves van der Straaten OICA
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
POWER TRAIN AND CHASSIS SOLUTIONS FOR
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YOU CAN SEEOUR THINKING
ENGINEERING ADVANTAGE
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High cycle lifeDURABLE
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Cab solutionSource Delphi
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First Tiers
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Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
RID
E ORUTUF THGNIVRI
F E OE TH
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AWWATOFSTOMOTU
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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44
56
49
23
28
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84
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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13 $1313
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)((
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
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imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
23 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
down In the past we had growth figures of 2030 per year Its always difficult to give a figurebut the latest forecasts I have seen for China2013 indicated growth of between 5-10
But thats still growth that many othermarkets can only dream of
Exactly Its still quite a positive developmentand I would call it a sustainable development
By sustainable do you mean that themarket in China will continue to grow at5-10 over the next ten years
Itrsquos impossible to give a precise forecast Butacross the region as a whole such a growthwill be long-term We always talk about Chinabut India is a huge market that also enjoysgrowth of 5-6 on an annual basis
Do you anticipate the rapid levels ofgrowth we have seen in China beingreplicated in India
I think India is rather different Simply looking atthe increase in GDP per inhabitant the increasewas dramatic over the last ten years in China butnow that growth is much slower Its still growingof course but the growth is less dramatic in Indiathan in China And GDP per capita and numberof sales well these two figures go hand in handIts all about purchasing power
What role do you think Africa will playas a market over the next ten years
Africa is growing quite nicely particularlySouth Africa where the expectation for 2012was a market of something like 635000vehicles - thats a growth of more than 11
Of course the figures compared to China arelow but it is still growth and what we haveseen over the last couple of years is that SouthAfrica tends to attract the other surroundingcountries in the same movement When thereis growth in South Africa then there is alsogrowth in other sub-Saharan countries Thatseems to be an interesting development eventhough the absolute figures are rather small incomparison to other markets
Do you see the unrest in the Middle Eastand North Africa as something thatcould hinder any potential growth in theregion over the next ten years
I am sure it will because of the uncertaintyabout what will happen at a political level inNorth Africa The problem is simply thatnobody knows But Renault opened a plant inMorocco just a couple of months ago and is
looking at Algeria as well so there is stillconfidence in these countries There is somevehicle manufacturing in Egypt but thosefactories slowed down during the Arabspring and in 2011 they were at minus 30compared to 2010 I dont have the figuresfor 2012 yet but I suspect that there will bequite a significant reduction due to thepolitical unrest 2012 might be a little betterthan 2011 because a new government is inplace but now there is some unrest again
You mentioned the lsquobuild where yousellrsquo concept its becoming increasinglyimportant for reasons of logisticscurrency exchange rates and themovement of goods between free tradeand non-free trade areas How muchmovement do you expect to see inemerging markets as a result of thebuild where you sell strategy
For one you are certainly less prone tovariations in exchange rates And itrsquos aquestion of logistics your suppliers followyou usually to the place you are producingand assembling so theres a whole supplychain establishing itself once you set up anassembly plant somewhere But I think itssimply a question also of long term stability
These are really the main reasons The costfactor the logistics of course and in any casemore and more you have a skilled workforcewherever you set up a plant and even if thatworkforce is not yet totally skilled and trainedwell you have your own training programmesto train your future employees and so on andthat works quite well So I think its really along term solution rather than shippingvehicles from one part of the world to another
Two key markets where OEMs areinvesting are Brazil and Mexico Whatprospects do you hold for SouthAmerica as a region
Mexico is a key country and from there youbenefit from NAFTA There is also theadvantage of the Brazilian market which ishuge but in some countries sometimespolitical and fiscal legislation may or may notattract investments The fiscal legislationintroduced in Brazil for instance resulted in amovement attracting local investmentincluding by those manufacturers which werenot yet assembling locally
Do you see South America as apowerful automotive region over thenext ten years
Yes but with regular peaks and troughs as wehave seen in the past If you look at historythese markets in South America have alwaysbeen very unstable but purely economicallythey are on a growth path
Before the global economic crisisRussia was talked about as being amarket larger than Germany How doyou see the performance of Russiaagain over the long term
I would say that Russia is once again in line toovertake Germany and I would be temptedto say probably before 2020
Weve talked about the emergence ofthe BRICS and about the recovery ofthe US market now we should addressthe slowdown in Europe Theinteresting phenomenon in Europe isthat the mainstream OEMs arestruggling but the premium OEMs arenot How do you interpret this
The premium manufacturersrsquo customers areless sensitive to the effects of an economiccrisis Mass-market manufacturers like FiatPeugeot or Renault are suffering becausethey have a different class of customer Howlong this crisis will last nobody knows We[OICA] had a tour de table among our majormembers two months ago and certainly theEuropeans including Germany are extremelycautious about making forecasts for 2013
December 2012 sales results in Germany weredown by around 15 The German marketresisted quite well throughout 2012 decliningby 23 but December was really very bad SoI am curious to see the figures for January Butif it continues on the same trend then Europeis off to a bad start in 2013 including Germany
The US market peaked at around 17million units in 2007 It collapsed to105 million and its now back up toaround 145 million with an optimisticoutlook of 155 million for 2013 Trendanalysis indicates the market couldreach 17 million units in 2017 Do youthink that Europe should accept a newnormal Are the current levels a newnormal for Europe or do you think thisis just a peak and trough
I can only say that I hope it is not WesternEurope or the EU-27 used to be at around15 or 16 million 2012 ended at around 12million Thats definitely not a result which issatisfactory for us And taking that into
account then what do you do with theplants You have huge overcapacity Im notsaying overproduction because of course youare not going to produce vehicles that youwont sell or at least you try to reduce thatgap as much as possible but the overcapacityis clearly there for most of the manufacturersin Europe Not all of them but most of them
Do you see the emergence ofmegacities as a significant factor in theautomotive industry
The growth of megacities will definitely playan important role It will affect transport andhow we fulfil transport needs Offering a goodtransportation system might converselyintroduce a deterrent to purchasing a vehicleCars might become something for people inextra-urban or rural areas where there is noalternative to your own private transport Butmegacities will definitely experience increasingcongestion problems and they could slowdown the new vehicle markets in countrieswith megacities Look at what is happening inChina where Beijing and Shanghai areoperating a lottery system for the right topurchase a vehicle If and when other cities inother countries introduce similar policies wewill be watching very closely But trying topredict what kind of effect this could have onthe new vehicle market is difficult
What is the feeling among OICAmembers of what 2013 means for theindustry And how do you see globalvehicle sales developing over the nextten years Several Tier One suppliershave individually said they expect salesto reach 115 million globally by 2020Do you agree with that forecast
Yes thats the figure that I have seen regularlyas well Whether it will be 100 or 115 millionI dont know But in any case on a globalscale I am still rather optimistic that thefigures will continue to grow simply becausethe demand is there Looking at the forecastfor some of the key markets South Africa isexpected to grow by 8 in 2013 In Koreawe expect 3-4 For Japan I dont know butbased on 2012 I am cautiously optimistic Wejust mentioned the US the latest forecasts Ihave seen for 2013 are between 148 and154 million so letrsquos say 15 million units Andthe demand for vehicles is growingworldwide Of course there are majordisparities among and between regions andcountries but on a global scale I think the100 million unit mark should indeed bepassed before 2020
2011
Manufacturing data published by OICA in 2012
P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
p oup o
P3 Speakers at Megatrends
p
opuo
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
Our thinking is clearFrom Powertrain Cab and Chassis to exhaust gas recirculation and transmission controls we apply our knowledge and expertise in commercial vehicles to create real advantage for our customers
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wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
eelfal otT
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Hiensild an
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37
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ats Th lsoab
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lcaittiiely crely criutl
buens behay] mpancorou[[ouanttanmpormportiimporastusjs iis on imatmati
e of ulati tbig
tantmpormports is importictpeesrres
ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
d ank acrractmnfornformIontlltiilbufllfsettseictoduprproduhettheastan
Eurd it
ans ollT
sing competearncI
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4
5
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onsigulatd re
onitising compet
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44
56
49
23
28
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67
68
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eg
84
d rd regs anollTTollesirriuntuntrco
ely a keynitiffis deiti
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Acc ntdeiAcc - eerreeffreaoprropEuhetn i
a e of orore of e marare monulatieg tbig
denrrentely a key
erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
oniattorortspanrranttree nitiffis deincialsolllld wid wilanttkeararken mea
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
ngowiowinge gre growiarare grs erers lllwiwiltitbustkeEuof
ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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013
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ight
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To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
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Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
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Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
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ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
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Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
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P3 enables our clients to succeed in their business by delivering tangible value
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p
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Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
RID
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tkeelevotimotuase
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moctibor
anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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013
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ight
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
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ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
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ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
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y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
28Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Wireless charging has long been the HolyGrail for EVs and although it focuses on CVsMomentum Dynamics has also perfected thetechnology for light vehicles
Explaining why he believes wireless chargingmakes more sense for fixed route CV
applications than for LVs Daga saidldquocommercial vehicles have the real
problem of heavy duty regular dutycycles in which they have six or
seven day week operations thatmay run 15 16 or even 20hours a day For an EV tooperate under thoseconditions they need to berecharged intermittentlyduring the course of theirrouteWe provide atechnology that solves thatproblem by allowing that
vehicle to make short periodstops take enough charge of
power and to continue along its routethereby allowing the vehicle to stay in
circulation all day longrdquo
That may sound ideal but Daga is keen toemphasise that itrsquos about more than justconvenienceldquoThe real point is that it isautomatic The driver of an electriccommercial vehicle or car does not need totake any action other than park in order tocharge their vehicleThis enables all-weathervandal-free opportunity charging Opportunitycharging is key to both vehicle rangeextension and battery lifetime extension -both crucial aspects that enable OEMs to sellmore EVsrdquo
Interest in Momentum Dynamicsrsquo technologyldquohas outstripped our expectationsrdquo says DagaldquoWe have major package delivery companiescoming to us asking for a solutionThere is nosolution in the plug-in paradigm for acommercial vehicleWersquove had a bus companycome to us and fleets and shuttle buscompanies that run short duration routessuch as around university campusesThe needfor clean technology in bus routes has beenunderestimated by most parties It is indemand in universities and it is in demand bycorporations which have programmes that canbe met by no other methodrdquo
The implementation of wireless chargingwould of course require embedding thetechnology in road surfaces But rather thanbeing frowned upon by authorities Daga saysthe company has received positive feedbackldquoWe have a bus transportation authority inPennsylvania that is so eager to deploy thistechnology that they have gone to the state of
Pennsylvaniarsquos department of transportationand asked for money to help deploy thissystem as a trialThey want to see what theycan do to reduce their fuel costsTheyrsquove triedall the alternative fuels but none has satisfiedtheir needsThis is the first time they haveseen an application that can cut their costsdramatically and so they are involving stateauthorities in a programme to outlay thesystem in the fieldrdquo Momentum Dynamics hasalso been approached by a rental car companyin California and four major utility companieskeen to get acquainted with the technology
In terms of a timeframe for theimplementation of wireless chargingtechnology Daga sees 2013 as a ldquobig breakoutyearrdquo for the deployment of multiple pilotprogrammes for passenger class-shuttle busesacross the US the company is also hoping toestablish a pilot programme in London
Daga refers to wireless charging as anemerging technology that is here now He alsoemphasises that opportunity chargingincreases range and reduces TCO he is keento dispel what he sees as myths about thecost of the technology versus wired chargingldquoDonrsquot believe everything you readrdquo he saysldquoItrsquos less expensiverdquo
And not only is there a lower cost says Dagabut the issues of power and price are closelylinkedldquoIt is not merely the provision of highpower levels to vehicles like 60 kW to a bus forexample but being able to afford it The cost ofa current generation Level 3 high voltage DCoff-board charger at about US$75000 is simplytoo high to promote widespread deploymentWe need to deliver - and Momentum Dynamicswill deliver - an inductive charging system atwell under US$10000rdquo
Wireless charging on trial
In late December 2012AMP Electric Vehicleswhich manufactures electric drive systems forClass 3-6 commercial truck platformsannounced a joint venture with MomentumDynamics to supply the fully electric vehiclesand wireless charging pads for a pilotprogramme run by Pennsylvaniarsquos Berks AreaRegional Transportation Authority (BARTA)The pilot will begin in the first half of 2013
According to the AMP statement BARTA isnot only the first major transportationauthority in Pennsylvania to deploy fullyelectric vehicles but it is also the first in theUS to deploy electric paratransit vehiclesMomentum Dynamics is one of theorganisations funding the project alongsidethe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania -Department of Environmental Protection andthe Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation
Like Momentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halo isinvolved in trial programmes In London it iscollaborating with ChargemasterAddison LeeTransport for London (TfL) and the Mayor ofLondonrsquos office on the first large scalewireless electric vehicle charging (WEVC)consortium
ldquoWe chose London because it is a megacityand had the will to take steps to clean up thetransport infrastructure But itrsquos also to lookat things like user experience different usercases fleet operated vehicles versus car shareversus private vehicles - and to prove thatthere is a sustainable business case forwireless charging and a charging infrastructureWe invite OEMs to put vehicles into that trialand test the wireless charging hardwarerdquo
Megatrends
27 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
In April 2011WiTricity Corporation andToyota teamed up to develop wireless chargingtechnology for plug-in hybrids and EVs DelphiAutomotive has also equipped several testvehicles with its wireless charging systemfeaturing technology developed by WiTricity
A year later in April 2012Tokyo-based IHICorp entered into a long-term agreement withWiTricity to manufacture and supply globallywireless charging systems for automotive andindustrial applications IHIWiTricity andMitsubishi had already been developingwireless charging components for EVs
Likewise Bombardierrsquos e-mobility subsidiaryPrimove is involved in the development ofinductive charging for cars buses and light railand has a dedicated e-mobility facility inMannheim Germany In 2012 Primovedemonstrated the wireless transfer of powerto a tram in Augsburg Germany and hasbegun testing the technology on a passengervan
Megatrends spoke to Momentum DynamicsQualcomm and Ampium - three companiestravelling along very different paths towardsthe same goal of wireless power transfer
Gathering Momentum
Based in Malvern Philadelphia MomentumDynamics was established in 2009 anddevelops wireless power chargingtechnology for electric vehicles In aninterview with AutomotiveWorld at CVMegatrends USA 2012 the Chief Executiveof Momentum Dynamics Andy Daga saidldquoOur primary market is commercial fleetvehicles where we can charge an electriccommercial vehicle at 60000 Watts - whichis far higher than is required for apassenger vehiclerdquo
Wireless chargingthe Holy Grail of the EVIn a world in which electronic devices are increasingly being liberated from cables and wires the ideathat an electric vehicle should be recharged by plugging it in seems at odds with the high-tech natureof EVsTo overcome this challenge a host of companies are looking at the potential for inductive powertransfer or wireless charging
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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moctibor
anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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5
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44
56
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28
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84
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
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e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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13 13131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
30Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The Halo effect
Seeing the potential for wireless charging in2011 Qualcomm acquired HaloIPT theAuckland New Zealand-based inductivepower transfer company best known forhaving developed the induction chargingsystem for the Rolls-Royce 102EXexperimental EV With its name attached tosuch a premium product Qualcomm Halocould easily have been labelled as a supplier ofa premium technology Dr Anthony Thomson
Vice President of Business Developmentand Marketing at Qualcomm concedesthat the technology was initially viewedas such but the company is nowreceiving considerable interest frommore mainstream OEMs
ldquoOver the years wersquove worked with anumber of OEMs and integrated this
into their vehicles They tend tobe confidential relationshipswhich are ongoing Renault is thefirst OEM who weve come outwith and publicised workfocused on the London trialrdquoThomson says there is a trendtowards considering high-powered wireless charging foruse on premium cars and lower-powered wireless charging formainstream cars something thatwould be ldquovery very helpful tosales of vehicles at the volumelevelrdquo
Little and often
Qualcomm Halo promotes theidea of little and often charging
which suggests that fixed routevehicles specifically buses would be
an ideal target However unlikeMomentum Dynamics Qualcomm Halorsquosfocus is on cars and light goods vehiclesbecause of the vehicle volumes involvedldquoThere are some bus systems operatingwhich show the user case to be very goodand reduction of battery mass of about two-thirds which is for putting a singleinfrastructure in and having multiple buses ona route for example Wersquove always had aninterest in thatrdquo The CV sector has not beenruled out however ldquoWe do have technologywhich does very high power and relationshipswith companies who are progressing that Sowersquore effectively involved but probably not asvocally or publically involvedrdquo
When people talk about fuel cell vehiclesimplementation is always said to be aroundten years away Thomsonrsquos estimates for when
wireless charging will be an option forpassenger car consumers are somewhat lessvague
ldquoThatrsquos the big question isnrsquot it If you look atnormal advanced engineering and productionengineering or serious production engineeringtimetables validation timetables of automanufacturers you would really struggle toget anything out and volume before 2016 Wehave a number of projects in various states ofundress with OEMs around the world whichwould either deliver on or about that date orsoon afterrdquo
On-demand
Whilst wireless charging removes the need forthe wire on-demand charging also removesthe need for the battery Does Thomsonbelieve this is a viable option ldquoAutomaticguided vehicles have been using on-demandwireless power for 20 years Its very possibleOur approach would be to get stationarycharging into the market and get peoplecomfortable with it with dynamic charging asthe long-term goalrdquo
Again on-demand or dynamic charging is atechnology that is a long way fromimplementation ldquoWersquore talking ten yearsbefore we see any major installs Wersquoreworking on it actively and we will makeannouncements in due course when we getdemonstrations going and that sort of thingWersquove got lab demonstrations and very veryshort runs but the next step is to get thatinto segments of road and prove it out Iwould think that in five years we could seesome demonstration level technologyrdquo
Powering up
Another company focused on dynamic powertransfer is Ampium founded in the UK in 2009by Andrew Howe and Andrew Danes ldquoWewanted to take grid electricity get it into theroad and across to the car at the point of useeliminating the energy storage battery - theproblem with the electric vehicle propositionrdquo
The start-up company has installed its firstroad coils in a 20m section of road inCambridge UK ldquoWeve focused on lowinfrastructure costs and on reusing processesand standards that are already used to putwires into the road Wires are already in theroad for presence detection both onmotorways and in urban environments aroundtraffic lights Our system will take gridelectricity upgrade infrastructure on the roadand wirelessly transport the energy that youneed from the road to the carrdquo
Megatrends
2 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
Bejing Brasov Detroit Erlangen Paris Seattle Shanghai Tokyo Vienna
RID
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moctibor
anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
eelfal otT
ghly ef2
3
Hiensild an
nizatbaur
cyenarspanrttee
onissemicientifghly ef - eerfksucrtten
oninizat
37
37
53
28 65
ali
90
iialiecspmore
ciespolin eeGrGreeesiegatrratststr of
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ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
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ans ollT
sing competearncI
ntdeiAcc
4
5
6
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onitising compet
nt- on iattorspanrteerf
44
56
49
23
28
19
67
68
84
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84
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ely a keynitiffis deiti
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
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sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
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Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
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Megatrends
31 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Ampiumrsquos technology is intended for hybridsldquoWe bought a Toyota Prius put a pickup coilon it and demonstrated 20 kilowatts of powertransfer into its DC busrdquo explains Howe Witha hybrid users could stray ldquooff infrastructurerdquothat is away from mainstream roads wherewires have been installed and onto private orrural roads
To convert Ampiumrsquos Toyota Priusdemonstrator involved ldquovery little workrdquo saysHowe ldquoWe put a pickup coil on it and a smallamount of power electronics and connected itonto those orange wires in the boot with abattery sitting on it and transferred 20kilowatts into the car Very little work isrequired on an existing battery electricvehiclerdquo
In addition to the conversion requiringminimal conversion Howe describes the costof the process as highly attractive ldquoThe costof adding the technology to a hybrid is amatter of putting a pickup coil on it and somepower electronics Youre talking a fewhundred [British] pounds of parts in volumemanufacture rather than thousands for puttinga battery onrdquo
But Ampium wants to go one step furtherthan converting hybrid cars ldquoOur propositionis that you would take a vehicle add a pickupcoil and a fairly small motor and create ahybrid car using road powered electricitywhen youre cruisingrdquo
Roadworks ahead
Whilst the case for wireless charging may beconvincing long term it would bring with itconsiderable short term disruption as thewireless charging technology is embedded into
the wider infrastructure There would also beconsiderable cost involved in carrying outsuch projects
Qualcomm Halorsquos Thomsondisagrees ldquoLook at putting acharging bollard in Ifyoure burying a1500 to
1800 mm tall charging bollard in the groundyouve got to put a third of it under theground and two thirds of it above Yoursquoreputting quite a significant amount of hardwareinto the ground and in a congested city likeLondon thatrsquos difficult even before yoursquoveconsidered the sub-terrain environment withtelephone cabling and fibres Ourinfrastructure is actually quite petiteand initially wersquore talking aboutprobably just putting in low-profile padson the surface We think the civil worksinvolved would be less than with a plug-in systemrdquo
Taking a big-picture view of thequestion Ampiumrsquos Howe sums up
philosophically The infrastructure would costa considerable amount of money he agreesldquobut national scale infrastructure is always alot of money If you look at the cost of buildinga nuclear power plant I am sure that we couldupgrade our trunk road infrastructure for thatcost and decarbonise our road transportrdquo
For further information write to us at enquirynorgrencoin or visit us at wwwnorgrencomin amp wwwnorgrencomcvIMI Norgren Herion Pvt Ltd A62 Sector 63 Noida -201301Ph +91 120 4089 500 Fax +91 120 4089 599
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The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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copy2013 Cummins Inc Box 3005 Columbus IN 47202-3005 USA
Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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37
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84
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erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
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ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
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adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
OEMs
First Tiers
OSV Middleware Hardware and Services Suppliers
Silicon
wwwgeniviorg
The GENIVI Alliance is an automotive and consumer electronics industry association that drives collaboration among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to build open source infrastructure for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems IVI is a rapidly changing and expanding field within the automotive industry It covers many types of vehicle infotainment applications including music news and multimedia navigation and location services telephony internet services and more The alliance aims to align requirements deliver reference implementations offer compliance programs and foster a vibrant open-source IVI community
The majority of GENIVIrsquos work is conducted through the technical and market-ing teams and groups There are currently six topical ldquoexpert groupsrdquo ndash Automotive CE Connectivity Location-based Services Media and Graphics Networking and System Infrastructure The EGs establish and prioritize the technical requirements identify and enhance components that implement those requirements and together develop the GENIVI Compliance Statement In Asia regional expert groups also develop specific requirements unique to their locations All of these requirements are collected reviewed and integrat-ed by the System Architecture Team resulting in a comprehensive compliance specification
The Program Management Office develops and monitors the technical working plan resulting in a regular six-month release cadence The Baseline Integration Team provides a continuous build environment where EGs and members can test their developed software against a number of GENIVI compliant Linux distributions
The GENIVI compliance program is a key deliverable of the alliance providing the set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and listed on the GENIVI website Compliant platforms consist of Linux-based core services middleware and open application layer interfaces These are the essential but non-differentiating core elements of the overall IVI solution set
Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers use these compliant platforms as their common underlying framework and add to it their differentiated products and services (the consumer-facing applications and interfaces) GENIVI is identifying these common automotive infotainment industry requirements to establish an open and robust baseline from which to develop products for the common good of the ecosystem
How the GENIVI Alliance Works
The GENIVI Alliance is open for membership to all organizations engaged in the automotive consumer electronics communications software application development and related industries that are invested in the success of IVI systems and related products and services
Megatrends
3Q1 2013 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom
What are the fundamental differencesbetween electric vehicle (EV) andinternal combustion engine (ICE) carsafety
The core difference between EV and ICE safetyis that we have familiarity with ICE technologydeveloped over many years yet for many EV isnew and unfamiliar The vehicle manufacturersand the other technology providers arenaturally striving to develop the most efficientEV that todayrsquos technology constraints willallow yet as soon as that vehicle is launched itis released on consumers service and repairindustries and emergency services largelyunfamiliar with it EVs were keenly promotedin the early 20th century but in reality sincemarketing of the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and theNissan Leaf began Thatcham has managed asurge of concern from many sectors withinand outside of the industry
How do the safety requirements differbetween different forms of electrifiedpowertrain for example betweenbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) hybridEVs (HEVs) plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs)
With HEVs and PHEVs the lack ofknowledge is compounded because to theuntrained it appears to be an ICE vehicleOEMs have done well with the safetyprotocols for EVs with automatic cut-out ofthe high voltage system governed by the SRS
[safety restraint system] Yet this does notaccount for every emergency scenario Weknow from our collaboration with theemergency services regarding casualtyextraction that they often require theelectrical system to be active for movingelectric seats to a position where a driverwith spinal injuries can be safely extracted
With an ICE vehicle the fuel cut-out reducesthe risk from fuel system fire but leaves theelectrical system operating With an EV thereare a number of components that stillpresent a risk even after the high voltagesystem which powers the engine has beenlsquolocked outrsquo Capacitors still hold charge themagnets in the motor rotor mean it can
move and align itself and the battery itselfremains susceptible to temperature
Should EVs undergo different safetytests from ICEs
No at Thatcham we do not as yet believe thisis necessary We have the very successful EuroNCAP programme that is far more than just atest of the vehicle structure with aspects suchas pedestrian safety and ADAS [advanceddriver assistance systems] technologies beingassessed A well known incident in the US inwhich NHTSA crash tested an EV whichsubsequently caught fire did exactly what itshould have done it identified an issue albeitin less than ideal circumstances
Power cut EV makers focus onpost-crash performanceDespite the slow start that many high profile battery electric vehicles have made in terms of salesthere is widespread agreement that new cars will increasingly use some form of powertrainelectrification Bringing live electricity into a vehicle be it battery electric plug-in hybrid or fuel cell addscomplexity to the safety features designed and developed for that vehicle Nevertheless in late 2012the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test in the US the 2013 Ford FocusElectric recently scored five stars in its NHTSA NCAP test
In 2012 Thatcham research in the UK became the eighth Euro NCAP-accredited test labMegatrends spoke to Andrew Hooker Future Vehicles Engineer at Thatcham Research about thesafety aspects of electric vehicles
Martin Kahl
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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E ORUTUF THGNIVRI
F E OE TH
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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sing competearncI
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onitising compet
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56
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28
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84
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ely a keynitiffis deiti
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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$13
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)((
$
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+
13 -13 $13) 13(-- +
13 01312(2$3- +13- 24542
)6728215949467282159494
13 +13
ltlt13$1313
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1(
+
13 1313
(
(13)(2345-)
1313
)56
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13 $
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+1313131313$13131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
What can be done to ensure the safetyof EVs not only in crash situations butalso post-crash where often smallgarages and warehousing may beinvolved in the storage or repair of thevehicle
The solution is greater dissemination of EVknowledge through accurate specific data andtraining The media has commented on theslow take up of EVs yet in the UK alone thereare 50000 Honda and Toyota HEVs already onthe road in addition to battery EVs AtThatcham wersquore proud to have been central tothis up-skilling as being non franchise-specificwersquove been able to provide knowledge andtraining across the industry to many sectorsand are continuing to do so Vehicle recoveryspecialists emergency services and even HMCustoms and Excise have received trainingand equipped themselves with the tools andnecessary PPE [personal protectiveequipment]
Incidents involving laptop batteries orthe NHTSA incident we referred tohave led to questions about the safety oflithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries yet theyremain the battery of choice for themajority of EVs What is the view amongsafety experts of the Li-ion batteryversus other energy storage solutions
Li-ion battery technology is the choice for themajority of EVs because of its energy densityThat is only logical as the manufacturers needrange performance to make EVs a practicalalternative to ICEs Yes there have beenincidents with Li-ion batteries but put thisinto perspective with volume according toCisco Systems by the end of 2013 there willbe more smartphones than people on earthThatrsquos a lot of Li-ion batteries andcomparatively few incidents Vehicle engineershave learned how to safely package fuel tanksSRS airbags and LPG and we are alreadyseeing developments in battery handling
What is the procedure for post-crashEV batteries
There is no set procedure for batteries post-crash Actions depend on the incident If thevehicle is flood damaged or otherwise badlydamaged enough to be deemed a total loss itwill probably go to a salvage specialist intactThe better salvage companies have handlingprocedures
The exception really is Renault with itsbattery lease scheme where most aspects arecovered by Renault including battery shipmentcosts to France
If the battery is removed post-crash forvehicle repair it should be clearly labelled andidentified and stored somewhere dry at asuitable temperature It should beremembered that although the battery lock-out or cut-off will have been performed thebattery will still be in whatever charged stateit was in prior to this
PSA and Bosch are jointly developingHybrid Air a hybrid solution which willenable the production of battery-freehybrid cars Apart from the efficiencycost and energy storage advantages thatPSA has mentioned could there be anysafety advantages in removing entirely aLi-ion battery from a vehicle
At Thatcham we are of course aware ofHybrid Air but wersquoll let PSA and Bosch andothers mature the technology before wecomment on this specifically There areefficiency and energy storage issues toovercome too not least of which will be thetemperature changes induced by changes in airdensity This will be an issue for the storagetank and the mechanical pump and motor Andalthough very rare a storage system issusceptible to failure too Yes wersquod always
advocate removal of any potentially harmfulcomponent from a vehicle such as a Li-ionbattery but so far we have seen little evidenceof unacceptable safety risk
What is the best way to cool batteries -coolant or air
There are advantages and disadvantages toboth methods Water cooling works well butone notable incident in an American safety testwas as a result of battery shorting inconjunction with a coolant leak Air cooling issimpler and more energy efficient Theproposed lithium-air batteries as the nameimplies are open to air so self-cool to a degreeBut moisture content in the atmosphere is anissue that manufacturers have to overcome
Hybrid powertrains add considerableweight to a vehicle especially one whichis also available with an ICE Whatimpact does this additional weight haveon developing safety technology andsafety testing for a vehicleThere has been some as yet unconfirmed datafrom the US that the additional mass isresulting in a reduction in occupant injuries inHEVs and PHEVs but the weight is not an issue
with safety testing At Thatcham we carry outassessments on the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid aswe would on the V60 with an ICE and it passesor fails The manufacturer is aware of theadditional mass and must engineer the vehicleto perform In the case of the V60 Plug-inHybrid Volvo still achieved the five-star rating inthe Euro NCAP assessment Thatrsquos theadvantage of a clear and transparent protocollike Euro NCAP the vehicle manufacturersknow what theyrsquore working towards
From a pure safety perspective what isthe safest way of designing andmanufacturing an EV
The battery location that most manufacturershave chosen namely deep and central withinthe structure makes the most sense as it isaway from harm in the majority of incidentsToyota has located a compact Li-ion batteryunder the front centre console of the Prius+The location of the high voltage cut-outdevice has been markedly better in somevehicles than in others But of equalimportance is that the EV HEV or PHEV isrecognisable as such so that appropriate careis taken The clear identification of high voltage
cabling in orange has been well received butwersquod like manufacturers to ensure thatthought is given in development to emergencyrescue and repair so that no cables arechannelled around the exterior close topanels that might need to be cut through Andlessons learned from the NHTSA Volt incidentregarding what happens in accidents when thevehicle is unlikely and unable to performwithin its usual parameters are vital
Does the rising use of differentmaterials for alternative powertraincars like carbon fibre present anyproblems challenges or opportunities tovehicle safety
At Thatcham we know and accept that OEMscan and will use different and new materialsAs conventional ICE vehicle structures getstronger with increased inclusion of press-hardened steels in the body construction thisshould translate into safer structures for thePHEV and BEV derivatives Some OEMs aremuch better than others at building practicaland economical lsquorepairabilityrsquo into theirdesigns Obviously weight reduction whetherby CFRP [carbon fibre reinforced plastic]
inclusion or by UHSS [ultra-high strengthsteel] can lead to smaller and less exposedbattery packs As some are looking atintegrating the battery cells within the vehiclestructure itself we could see an opportunityfor the engineering of battery behaviourfollowing an impact within the impact forceload paths Many engineers feel steel is not asuitable housing for a high voltage battery butit is a known material with predictablebehaviour so maybe body integration could bea good compromise
Is there anything in particular that youare pushing for in terms of EV safety
As discussed before we accept that PHEVsand EVs are in development and are here tostay Clear and specific handling and repairinformation needs to be available Whilst werespect the manufacturersrsquo needs for theirown branded aftersales networks we knowthat in reality cars soon disseminate externallyinto the wider independent networksThatcham has been approached by and isworking with some manufacturers so that wecan train and educate industry sectors and weare happy to collaborate on this with others
In late 2012 the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid scored five stars in its Euro NCAP test
Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
DRIVING THE FUTURE OF
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anneio V
CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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37
37
53
28 65
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ats Th lsoab
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ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
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sing competearncI
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4
5
6
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nt- on iattorspanrteerf
44
56
49
23
28
19
67
68
84
eg
84
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ely a keynitiffis deiti
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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)((
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13 +13
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
3Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)systems prepare and ultimately applymaximum braking at the last possible momentbefore a front-to-rear collision if the driverdoes not do so Combined with stereocameras lidar radar or a combination of theseknown as lsquosensor fusionrsquo AEB has been shownto help to reduce low-speed shunts by 25-27
Figures from the European Commissionsuggest that AEB could save 8000 lives a yearin Europe alone 75 of light vehicle crashesoccur at speeds below 20mph (32kph) andaround 25 of insurance claims involve front-to-rear crashes AEB offers improved safetyfor drivers and can reduce the potentiallycrippling effects of whiplash
AEB is also something that insurancecompanies are looking at with serious interestIn the UK the Association of British Insurers(ABI) has agreed to incentivise the purchase ofvehicles fitted with AEB as standard by giving
them a lower group rating James Dalton theABIrsquos Head of Liability told Megatrends ldquoweurge manufacturers to fit AEB as standardrather than as an optionrdquo
AEB has been mandated for trucks inEuropebut not for cars
In light of theconvincingarguments for AEBthe technology willbe included in EuroNCAP testing from2014 and it wouldbe logical to askwhether it shouldbe mandated muchthe same as firstsafety belts andthen ESC(electronic stabilitycontrol) were ESChas been required
since 2012 for new cars and from 2014 forface-lifted cars However as noted in a recentAutomotive World safety report (TechnologyRoadmap Light Vehicle Safety available atautomotiveworldcomresearch) there isqualified industry support for the regulation of
AEB probably the most importantsafety development of recent yearsFrom 2014 the Euro NCAP safety test will include autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systemsMegatrends talks to leading industry figures about the importance of this technology
Martin Kahl
Cars fitted with AEB as standard Oct 2012
MakeModel System Name
Lexus LS Advanced Pre Crash Safety System
Mazda CX-5 Smart City Braking System
Volvo S60 CitySafety
Volvo S80 CitySafety
Volvo V40 CitySafety
Volvo V60 CitySafety
Volvo V70 CitySafety
Volvo XC60 CitySafety
Volvo XC70 CitySafety
VW Golf V11 (Dec 2012) City Emergency Braking
Source Thatcham
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
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25 YEARS IN THE EMBEDDED SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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onitising compet
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49 19 68
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e bele a whie a whilakt
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Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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13 13131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
40Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
safety technology in light vehicles Support islsquoqualifiedrsquo because although the roll-out oftechnology can be accelerated by legalenforcement market forces are generallybelieved to be more powerful and faster-actingthan the slow pace of change brought aboutby regulation
The European Commission has producedrules requiring the fitment of AEB and lanedeparture warning (LDW) systems in trucksand buses over 35t from Q4 2013 with 100fitment by the end of 2015 So what are thechances of legislation requiring AEB in lightvehicles
Michiel van Ratingen Secretary General ofEuro NCAP explains why trucks were selectedfor AEB regulation firstldquoThe cost benefit forthese types of vehicles is much better muchmore positiveThe systems are of course asexpensive for trucks as they are for passengercars but trucks are generally much moreexpensive so the cost added to these vehiclesis relatively small while the benefits are hugeThat cost benefit is different for trucks andmakes sense Its much more worthwhilepromoting implementation through regulationthan it is for passenger carsrdquo
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits ofmandating the technology in trucks he saysldquoI dont think really that we need regulationfor AEB in cars at this stage because we haveEuro NCAP really pushing fitmentrdquo Referringto the UK ABIrsquos decision to incentivise AEBhe saysldquothis is a good example of theinsurance industry taking the first steprdquo EuroNCAPrsquos inclusion of AEB in its testing in2014 will ldquobasically drive it homerdquo Moreoverldquothe big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work forall types of vehicles all models and so therequirements would get watered down somuch that the end benefit would be lost Ibelieve much more in the model of takingbest practice making fitment standard anddriving it through commercial and thencustomer demand to make sure that there isa competitive market there Make it standardand make people want to buy itrdquo
Anders Eugensson Director of GovernmentAffairs at Volvo Car Corporation is adamantthat market forces not legislation should leadthe wayldquoI think you can never use regulationsto push technology Just look at ESC its takenten years to make it mandatoryTheres noway you can have AEB mandated and pushedforward If you start working on the regulationnow the best experts will look at what ispossible now with technology come up with aproposal and send it to BrusselsThey taketwo years to discuss it Meanwhiledevelopment of the technology continues Itcan take four years for regulators to decideon a mandate and then they have to giveabout four or five years lead time beforeimplementing it It could take up to ten yearsDuring that time technology has advancedAnd you face a risk of locking into todayrsquostechnology instead of having consumers pushfor it constantly and having a Euro NCAPratingAnd also that mandate may stay in placefor another ten years so you basically lockyourself into 20 years of knowledge anddevelopment instead of having this constantlypushed Mandates are for the pastrdquo
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director atThatcham Research and also sits on the boardof Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
groupldquoI think its all about the consumerdemanding and expecting technology to be ina vehiclerdquo she saysldquoAnd we have to also thinkabout fleet and professional drivers who aregoing to be out in those cars doing 60-90000miles a yearThey also need to be put in thesafest vehicles Furthermore not everyone candrive around in new cars but everybody hasthe right to safety and I think we needconsumers to say they expect thisrdquo
Cost
As ever cost lies at the heart of any suchdecisionldquoIt has to make sense economicallyrdquosays van RatingenldquoThe cost benefit is veryimportant so that means the technicalrequirements will be lower for cars that arecheaper I think thats the wrong way ofapproaching technology like this It works verywell with some basic crash performance but itdoesnt work very well with this type of highend technology that develops very fast - everygeneration is smarter than the previous oneLets use the market not regulation as amechanism to increase demand to pick thebest systems and to drive those into themarketThat is my opinionrdquo
As safety requirements become morestringent the level of technology increasesadding cost to the vehicle Either the OEM hasto absorb the cost or it has to pass the coston to the consumer But at the same time thebit-price of that technology is reducing all thetime and software developments mean thathardware can be used for multiple tasks andfunctions
At Volvo says Eugenssonldquowe decided to fitAEB as standard Now were getting the high
volumes the cost is going down and wedont understand why some manufacturersdont have that as standard to be honest Butwe are working with the other equipmentlike the radar and the camera to make themless expensive and once we have highenough volumes and the cost is acceptablewere going to make them standard tooThenonce we have that we basically haveeverything we need for applying systems to itbecause no additional hardware is neededOnce the hardware is in the car the OEMcan begin to customise it and addalgorithmsrdquo
Educating drivers
One of the big successes of Euro NCAP hasbeen educating consumers to appreciatethings like passive safety and crash protectionBut Upham underlines the need to not only fitthe technology but to make sure customersunderstand itldquoIts not just the fact thattechnology is there - its also about educatingdrivers on how they can make the most of itfor themselves Its a combined message fit thetechnology and ensure people realise whatopportunities are there for themrdquo
Passive vs active safety
First brought to market by Volvo theintroduction of the safety belt - perhaps thesimplest form of passive safety technology -defined safety for generations to comeAsactive safety technology becomes increasinglyimportant what are the roles of passive andactive safety in advancing the way in which wecan protect pedestrians and occupants
ldquoWe believe active safety is the key to movingforwardrdquo says Eugensson ldquoWithout activesafety were not going to get significantlycloser to zero fatalities and zero injuries soactive safety is necessary Reducing theviolence in a crash and hopefully avoiding acrash so mitigating or avoiding crashes is thekey to what doWithout the active safetysystem were never going to get thererdquo
Advances in active safety development havenot however led to passive safety technologybeing sidelinedldquoNo they work togetherrdquo saysEugenssonldquoWe talk about integrated safetyyoure moving the crash violence into a rangewhere the passive safety systems are going tobe even more efficient So they work togetherwith active safety avoiding or reducingaccidents and passive safety technologyhandling the situation if there is a crashrdquo
Upham agreesldquoActive and passive safety workhand in handThe next thing that we need to
make certain is that consumers understandthe technology are able to identify the bestsafety systems and can assess vehicles whichare going to affect their particular lifestyleOne of the things which Euro NCAP islooking at is translating its website into otherlanguages to make that information veryaccessible and assist buying decisions Itdoesnrsquot only relate to new cars - new cars willeventually become used cars Even whenyoure buying a used car go to the NCAP siteto make certain you understand the choicesthat you can make and more increasinglyyoull see those websites in the language ofyour choice as well which is very importantrdquo
Most injuries in car crashes are due toldquospeeding drunk driving and not wearingseatbeltsrdquo says Eugensson But eliminate theseand ldquoyou still wont get down to zero so youstill need an AEB systemrdquoThis is why acombined approach is needed - passive safetycan only go so far and it needs to besupported by active safety technology
Optimising passive safety
If AEB is used to mitigate the most extremeevents does that mean that passive safetysystems can be optimised to work in a moreeffective way ldquoYes it doesrdquo says Eugenssonldquobecause the distribution of crashes is goingto move down so youre going to have lowerspeeds and if we can have optimisation of thepassive safety systems for another speedrange a lower speed range that could helpSome of the safety features can be a bit harshWe as the manufacturer have to deal with lowspeed crashes and high speed crashes andsometimes you have to compromiseYou tryto optimise where you have most crashesTheenergy levels in a crash at 40mph are quite
different to the energy levels in a 20mphcrash So the airbags have to be developed in away that you can adapt to how fast theoccupant is moving towards the airbag forexample Optimising definitely would help butwe need to move high speed crashes into arange where we can protect occupants Forexample slowing a 60mph crash to 40mphwould get us in the range Otherwise itwouldnt be possible to protect the occupantSo thats one of the things about integratedsafety - taking speed down and having otherpossibilities to protect peoplerdquo
A third and relatively new dimension ispedestrian safety says EugenssonldquoWe [Volvo]have a pedestrian detection system whichbrakes the car for pedestriansWe also have apedestrian airbag so that even if you are notable to avoid hitting the pedestrian once youhit the pedestrian the speed will be reducedThen it will adjust how the pedestrian hits thehood and the windscreen by lifting up thehood and protecting the head against impactsinto the A pillars and the windshield area withan external airbag I think thats a goodexample of how you can combine passive andactive safety technologiesrdquo
In 2011 Euro NCAP introduced the testing ofESC and in 2013 it will include speedassistance systems in its tests From 2014 twoof three AEB technologies low speed and highspeed will enter the Euro NCAP programmethe third pedestrian detection will be broughtin from 2016Although there is no legalrequirement for AEB it is hard to imaginebuying a car in five yearsrsquo time that is notfitted with a technology that Michiel vanRatingen describes as ldquoprobably the mostimportant safety development of recentyearsrdquo
Volvo V40 pedestrian airbag
II ddoonntt tthhiinnkk rreeaallllyytthhaatt wwee nneeeedd
Millions of Vehicles on the Road Powered by EB Automotive
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CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE And if you love them as much as we do you want to keep your engines as close as possible to the way they left the factory Thatrsquos why we made Pennzoil Ultratrade motor oil No leading synthetic oil keeps engines closer to factory cleanBased on ASTM Sequence IIIG piston deposit test using SAE 5W-30 Does not apply to Pennzoil Ultratrade Euro or Pennzoil Ultratrade 0W-40 Based on Sequence VG sludge test using SAE 5W-30 copy2013 SOPUS Products All rights reserved
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
eelfal otT
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Hiensild an
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37
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ats Th lsoab
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lcaittiiely crely criutl
buens behay] mpancorou[[ouanttanmpormportiimporastusjs iis on imatmati
e of ulati tbig
tantmpormports is importictpeesrres
ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
d ank acrractmnfornformIontlltiilbufllfsettseictoduprproduhettheastan
Eurd it
ans ollT
sing competearncI
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5
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onsigulatd re
onitising compet
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44
56
49
23
28
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67
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eg
84
d rd regs anollTTollesirriuntuntrco
ely a keynitiffis deiti
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Acc ntdeiAcc - eerreeffreaoprropEuhetn i
a e of orore of e marare monulatieg tbig
denrrentely a key
erururertacufufacanAsian mel lhetchhee tfe be
oniattorortspanrranttree nitiffis deincialsolllld wid wilanttkeararken mea
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
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onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
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ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
3 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
What do you think have been themajor changes in truck safetytechnology in recent years and wheredo you think CV safety is headed overthe next decade
A critical development in CV safety hasbeen the introduction of active safetytechnology enabling features such asAdvanced Emergency Braking Systems(AEBS) and Lane Departure Warning(LDW) These technologies help alertdrivers to potential accidents and in thecase of AEBS can actually apply brakingautomatically when the driver does notreact in time to prevent or lessen theimpact of an accident Looking forward youcan expect to see the addition of sensors toprovide a complete 360 degrees of coveragearound the vehicle enabling further collisionavoidance capability eventually includingsteering control in addition to braking AEBSand LDW will become mandatoryequipment in Europe for certain newcommercial vehicles beginning in November2013 and phasing in through 2015 Othercountries are evaluating similar measures toincrease road safety
Furthermore connectivity enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle [V2V] and vehicle-to-infrastructure[V2I] systems will allow vehicles to shareinformation in real-time with each other andthe network further expanding the rsquococoonof safetyrsquo around the vehicle from hundredsof metres to hundreds of kilometres Lookingeven further these systems will enableautonomous driving or highway platooningDelphi is highly engaged in all of these areasas we focus on a safe green and connectedfuture
What are the main differences betweenlight vehicle and mediumheavycommercial vehicle safety technology
Given the significant differences in vehicledynamics between light and heavy dutycommercial vehicles active safety systemsoriginally developed for passenger vehiclesmust be adapted We have been able toleverage Delphirsquos industry-leadingperformance in vehicle and pedestriancollision avoidance on passenger car systemsto the heavy commercial vehicle market bysharing existing radar and vision sensors withupdates to sensor algorithms for vehiclecontrol and alerts specific to differences indynamics For example longer stoppingdistances require earlier driver alerts andbraking distances and tracking algorithmsmust adapt to how truck cabs ldquodiprdquo when
braking as compared to passenger carsDelphi has already secured a strategic winwith a leading European commercial vehiclemanufacturer that will enable the OEM tocomply with the new AEBS regulation in2013 and the level of re-use described herehelped us to reduce time to market andoverall system cost
Are there any technologies that can beused in both or that can be adaptedfrom one for use in the other
Absolutely Our radar and vision-sensingtechnology building blocks are nearly identicalfor the two markets The major difference isin the alert and vehicle control algorithms
What are the main differences in trucksafety technology requirements byregion
Europe and Japan are more focused onlegislation to reduce road accidents whereother regions are still investigating optionsBased on Delphirsquos on-going safety productionprograms in Europe North America and Asia
we have visibility to the communicationbetween global entities to share findings andhopefully reach common conclusions onfuture requirements
Are you seeing demand for advancedsafety technology even in marketswhere safety standards are particularlylow or where safety regulations areimplemented loosely or not at all
We are starting to see demand in severalemerging markets for advanced safetytechnology however it is clear that inmarkets where regulations exist demand isincreasing significantly
What influence do fleets have on thedevelopment and fitment of particularsafety technologies on trucks
The CV market is unique and varies globallyby region on the impact of fleet purchasesfor new technology product options Insome markets fleet priorities are a keydriver for safety related content Fleets havea mission to optimise costs and given the
Although there are no plans to mandate autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in lightvehicles the fitment of AEB and lane departure warning (LDW) systems will be required in trucksand buses over 35t in Europe from Q4 2013 thanks to a European Commission mandate By theend of 2015 100 fitment will be required and in the US NHTSA is also considering mandatingthe technology in heavy trucks
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares to meet this legislation the role of suppliers is crucialMegatrends spoke to Mike Thoeny Global Engineering Director at Delphi Electronic Controls aboutdevelopments in commercial vehicle safety technology
Ruth Dawson
Interview Michael Thoeny DelphiElectronic Controls
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
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e bele a whie a whilakt
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Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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013
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ight
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To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
benefits of active safety systems in reducingexpensive accidents and down time theywill help to stimulate demand And fleets arealready aware of the side benefit ofimproved fuel economy and reducedemissions when using a vehicle equippedwith AEBS and adaptive cruise controlHowever moving forward the vehicleintegration complexity of systems that linksensors braking steering driver monitoringand alert will drive CV manufacturers toinclude these advanced systems as standardequipment
As you mentioned earlier AEB hasbeen mandated for trucks and buses inEurope and there are moves tomandate it in the US too How long doyou think it will be before all trucksare fitted with AEB Do you envisageAEB being fitted on all trucks globally
Trucks have a long service life so the rolloutof AEB and other advanced safety featuresglobally will take time The Europe mandatesthat start in 2013 for AEB - or AEBS - andLDW are clearly accelerating the market andI expect to see other regions roll out similarrequirements It will truly have a measurablebenefit on road safety
Is the truck industry leading othersectors in terms of technology
developments in any particular areas ofsafety
Although active safety sensor developmentwas driven initially by the automotive marketneed for high performance radar and visionsystems the CV market could be in the leadwhen it comes to the implementation ofvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure systems
What role do you think telematics andconnectivity will play in truck safetyover the next decade
Connectivity will be a major development inthe coming years for both light duty and CVmarkets Fleet owners and drivers willdemand more information that is enabled byconnectivity systems and overall vehiclesafety will be enhanced as V2V and V2Iessentially extends the range of todayrsquos radarand vision sensors to help keep CV driversout of danger well ahead of any potentialaccidents Governments are interested inthis technology not just for the potential tosave lives but also to address the growingproblem of highway overcrowding - as thesesystems lend themselves to enablingsmoother traffic flow
Do you anticipate connectivity-relatedsafety technology to focus on vehicle-
to-grid or vehicle-to-vehicle over thenext decade
I expect advances in both although a focuson vehicle-to-vehicle will predominate incountries that will not make the significantinvestment for vehicle-to-grid infrastructuresystems
As safety requirements become morestringent how will suppliers and OEMsbe able to deliver technology at anaffordable cost particularly inemerging markets where total cost ofownership comes first and where thereis an emergent low-cost or lower-costtruck market
Advanced safety technology product costshave come down significantly due to arelentless pursuit of cost reduction whileoptimising performance in real-world drivingsituations Development and verification costsare also being reduced as the technologymatures Since Delphirsquos first launch of vehicleradar systems in 1999 we have seen greatmovement down the price curve as weevolve more efficient designs and our supplybase makes advances in lower costprocessors and components As volumeincreases I expect this trend to continue Thiswill enable standard-fitment of thesetechnologies in all markets
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
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Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
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imite
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ight
s Re
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ed
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
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Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrend 3 total fleet transparency
Another important requirement will be fulltransparency along the entire value chain forfleet operators The key to achieving suchtransparency is to integrate the varioustechnological aspects of the system into end-to-end solutions This would enable real-timemonitoring which increases flexibility andminimises idle time thereby cutting logisticscosts Integrated logistics systems (includingvehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructurecommunication) are estimated to savecorporate fleets at least 10 on fuelconsumption This integration will driveforward the trend toward increasedtransparency and overall up-time In additionthe rsquocaptiversquo telematics services that OEMsprovide today will gradually give way to open-source systems (eg cross-brand) OEMs willhave to support the hardware but supplierswill deliver both the hardware and platform-independent software solutions Most vehiclesare expected to be equipped with thenecessary support systems by 2025
Megatrend 4 tolls and regulation
As traffic volumes increase and emissionsstandards become stricter tolls - currently thestandard regulatory mechanism in Triadmarkets - are likely to spread to developingcountries too Tolls and regulatory fees areexpected to increase from around 10 oftotal transportation costs today to an averageof 15-25 by 2030 Fleet operators for whomtotal cost of ownership is a major concernare likely to pass these additional costs toOEMs Accordingly OEMs must try to findways of cutting overall fleet operating costs
Megatrend 5 accident-freetransportation
After being somewhat overshadowed byenvironmental concerns for a time safetyissues are once again coming to the foreStricter safety legislation is in the pipeline inseveral regions Yet despite improvementsnumerous active and passive safety featuresthat are already widespread in passengervehicles have yet to be implemented in trucksFuture developments will include usingadvanced materials developing assistance andsafety systems and integrating all the availabletechnologies in future truck generationsWithin the EU advanced safety features willmostly be in place by 2015 These features willalso grow in importance in emerging markets
Megatrend 6 increasing competition
The global truck market is expected to grow by
around 4 a year through to 2020 whilecompetition will be fiercer than ever Thedemand side will likely be dominated by a fewextremely large rsquomega-logistics providersrsquoputting pressure on OEMs margins On thesupply side with quality and technical standardsfinally converging across global markets playersin emerging markets might even target thelower ends of the Triad markets (Europe Japanand North America) in addition to adjacentregions such as Russia Investment by AsianOEMs into Western players will also be anoption OEMsupplier alliances will increasinglydevelop as a means to fight toughercompetition share the burden of investmentand counteract stagnation in Triad markets
Six consequences for truck and trailermanufacturers
These megatrends will have a major impact ontruck manufacturers and their suppliers Wehave identified six main consequences forthese players
Truck OEMs must align their product offeringswith the new transportation requirementscaused by demographic development andurbanisation As infrastructure changesmedium-duty trucks will become lessimportant and light- and heavy-duty trucks willcome to the fore The emergence ofrsquomegatrucksrsquo as a solution for heavy long-haultraffic will depend on political decisions
Customer structures are also subject tochange A few large customers are expectedto grow in importance putting pressure onOEMs margins To remain competitivemanufacturers will be forced to act asbusiness solution providers increasing theirvertical integration to includecomprehensive service offerings andinnovative mobility solutions (new businessareas to be verified) This will naturally alsohave an impact on suppliers who will have tothink carefully about their position in thefuture value chain
Integrated truck and trailer concepts mustcomplement the development of lightweight
and aerodynamic solutions taking efficiency toa new level Partnerships between OEMs andtrailer manufacturers could be one optionHowever height and length restrictions remainhurdles for innovative truck concepts
Truck OEMs must develop region-specificalternative powertrain solutions so thatlong-haul traffic and city traffic becomesmore efficient Suppliers have a vital part toplay in facilitating technological change Theassistance they provide in developing keytechnologies will give them an invaluableUSP
Global flexible concepts can help companiesmeet the demands of specific marketsBesides global premium platforms budgetand low cost platforms are required OEMswill build both low-cost and budget vehicleson respective platforms Increasingcompetition and cost pressure will promoteadjusted platform concepts - thus off-roadand budget trucks could use the same robustplatform
OEMs need to build new partnerships orimprove existing ones especially in emergingcountries These partnerships will enable themto address local market requirements leveragelow production costs and share RampDinvestments Suppliers must follow the OEMslead in terms of development direction andgeographical footprint
Driving the change
Driving innovation and developing newbusiness models while fending off increasingcompetition and ensuring compliance mayappear a daunting task Yet each of theseharbours attractive opportunities forcompanies that act swiftly and resolutely Nowis the time to act - to drive the change ratherthan be driven by it
Norbert Dressler is Partner Roland BergerStrategy Consultants Stuttgart
Sebastian Gundermann is Principal RolandBerger Strategy Consultants Munich
Truck Transportation 2030 a new study byRoland Berger sheds light on crucialdevelopments in the truck transportationindustry It presents the results of theconsultancyrsquos discussions about the long-termimpact of these developments on industryplayers with key decision-makers atinternational logistics providers commercialvehicle manufacturers suppliers and otherrelevant organisations
Future opportunities and challenges
Based on our analysis we have identified sixkey megatrends
Megatrend 1 demographic change andurbanisation
The worlds population is growing rapidly -especially in developing countries where 85of the worlds 83 billion people will be livingby 2030 Over half of the global populationwill live in cities driving urban sprawl andincreasing the number of megacities Thesedevelopments will lead to seismic changes inthe truck industry through to 2030Transportation flows will increase in line withpopulation growth so developing countrieswill both offer the greatest market potentialand dictate new requirements Substantialdemand for specialised vehicles combinedtrainbustruck transportation concepts andpossibly even completely new vehicle
categories will develop to bridge the growingdistances between urban logistics hubs andcity centres
Megatrend 2 highly efficient emission-free and silent trucks
A combination of increasing green legislationrising energy prices and growingenvironmental awareness among customersmakes fuel efficiency more relevant than everEmission reduction targets are expected formost major truck markets by 2020 This will
necessitate alternative vehicle concepts(hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well assignificant gains in fossil fuel efficiency Thedevelopment trajectory of electric and hybridtrucks will be boosted by the fact that theirengines are exceptionally efficient in urbanstop-and-go traffic They also meet inner-cityzero-emission requirements which willprobably be commonplace by 2030 Howeverwith no positive business case in sightelectrification will for the time being mainlybe driven by political rather than economicfactors
Truck Transportation 2030
impacting the commercial vehicle
industryChanges in the global transportation industry such as new logistics business models will have a majorinfluence on the truck market over the coming 20 years The industry will have to adapt to newpatterns of behaviour global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts all of which will placenew requirements on truck OEMs and their products At the same time challenges within the truckindustry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models
Norbert Dressler amp Sebastian Gundermann Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsSeparation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S) Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
hee tely senit orfforednetantmpormports is importictpeesrres
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ng ittikemarmarkehetoft
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ans ollT
sing competearncI
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5
6
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44
56
49
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28
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67
68
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84
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ely a keynitiffis deiti
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opeEurEuropen d id in enrrenttr
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ely nit d enrrenttrtantmpormportianeuturutureffuturhetn iseearreanc
sing competearncI6
trennt ImportawieInterv ourceS
onitising compet
dtren trendportant imery VergerBand olR sw
49 19 68
trend
e bele a whie a whilakt
el evlhetcheay ry reahee torore tffore be
stkemarmarken eaoprropEuof
Separation of long-haul and city traffic 1
Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept
3
Global flexible concepts and specialization 5 Cooperations and mergers 6
Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4
2 Change of business model for truck OEMs
Six main consequences for truck OEMs
Source Roland Berger
Source MAN (Concept S)
Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
131313
1313
13 13131313
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13 $1313
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)((
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
0Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
The idea that natural gas might offer analternative to both diesel and gasoline is not anew one nor is any debate around the issueBut over the past few months the conversationboth within Europe and North Americaconcerning the viability of natural gas hasintensified
It is it must be said a broad discussionpopulated by numerous voices which takes intoaccount geopolitical economical nationalinterest and environmental considerations andhas joined energy suppliers equipmentmanufacturers and consumers with anunsurprisingly discordant result
TThhee ccaassee ffoorr ddiieesseellhelliphellip
Theres a good reason why diesel powers thevast majority of the global heavy duty truck fleetIt is an extremely dense power source and anengine thus powered develops maximum torqueat a far lower engine speed than a gasolineengine For HD trucks designed to move heavyloads this is clearly an attractive quality so the
adoption of diesel as the fuel of choice for theglobal heavy duty fleet is not a surprising oneAnd were everything else to remain equalthere is little reason to regard diesel as anythingother than the most appropriate fuel for thebulk of heavy duty applications
But everything else isnt equal The price ofdiesel has risen markedly in both NorthAmerica and Europe over the past decadeTrucking company operating margins have gonein the opposite direction and the tradingenvironment is as tight as it has ever been Withfuel representing the single largest input cost ofthe majority of trucking operations based eitherin Europe or North America any means ofreducing this cost is likely to be givenconsiderable attention
While considerations of cost are clearly the keyoperational driver towards a possible widerspread adoption of natural gas as a fuel for theHD segment other issues are now presentingthemselves as significant contributors to thedebate
helliphellipffaacceess aa ccoonnvviinncciinngg ccaassee ffoorr NNGG
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) andsustainability covers much ground While it isclearly foolish to regard transportation - or forthat matter any economic function - as impact-neutral upon the environment in the battle forpublic perception environmental awareness isseen entirely reasonably as a plus There isnothing new here However for the bigshippers this CSR-sympathetic approach is nowbeing demanded of suppliers too If natural gas isseen as a positive in terms of CSR image thenso it should benefit from a significant tailwind
The notion of energy security has long been a keyconsideration the oil shock of 1973 demonstratedjust how crucial an uninterrupted energy supplywas to a modern hydrocarbon-based economyThe International Energy Agency (IEA) mandatesthat each member hold oil stocks equivalent to atleast 90 days of net imports and maintainemergency measures for responding collectively todisruptions in oil supply of a magnitude likely tocause economic harm to its members
Is natural gas a viable alternativefuel for HD truckingOliver Dixon looks at the disparate strands that currently populate the natural gas debate and askswhether attempts to introduce NG in Europe and North America will be welcomed by the heavy dutytrucking industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
M L
imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
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Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
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Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
But discussions surrounding energy security inthe US have taken a slightly different turn In2005 the US imported 125 million barrels of oilper day It was more or less completelydependent upon oil sourced from regions thatby any reasonable geopolitical measure couldnot be seen as reliable
By 2014 according to IEA figures the US willimport just six million barrels a day Thissignificant reduction is in part a function ofreduced usage but also a result of the increasein domestic production of crude oil Howeversix million barrels per day is still significant anddespite the rather excited news flow to thecontrary the US is unlikely to achieve oilindependence any time soon Charles K Ebingerand Kevin Massy of the Brooking Instituteechoed such sentiments in a recent memo toPresident Obama
The oil and gas boom has had manycommentators breathlessly heralding an era ofUS energy independence This is unlikely tomaterialize either practically or economicallyUnder even the most optimistic scenarios fordomestic hydrocarbon production the UnitedStates will continue to import millions of barrelsof crude oil per day for the foreseeable futurealbeit increasingly from our own hemisphererather than the Middle East And as long as theUnited States is connected to the global tradingsystem it will be subject to supply and demandshocks beyond its borders meaning that pricedisruptions anywhere in the world will bepassed on to US consumers
According to a recent Deloitte survey whichpolled 250 oil and gas executives 75 believethe US already is natural gas sufficient or will bewithin ten years The US Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) figures lend credibility tothis survey of the natural gas consumed in theUnited States in 2011 some 95 was sourceddomestically
The EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2013 EarlyRelease projects US natural gas production toincrease from 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to331 trillion cubic feet in 2040 a 44 increaseAlmost all of this increase in domestic naturalgas production is due to projected growth inshale gas production which will grow from 78trillion cubic feet in 2011 to 167 trillion cubicfeet in 2040 Granted natural gas adoption ratesare miniscule at present within the US vehiclefleet but that aside there is clearly someheadroom for wider spread adoption withoutsupply constraint Against this we have to setthe twin issues of the true size of the shalereserve and the well-documented concerns
surrounding the environmental sustainability ofits recovery
But letrsquos assume that the supply of natural gaswithin North America is both viable andenvironmentally sustainable If this proves to bethe case then two of the three primary driverstowards adoption are clearly in place Self-sufficiency of supply equates to energyindependence while the cleaner burning CO2-friendly nature of natural gas plays well to theaudience in terms of environment and CSR Wecan infer that the apparent abundance of supplyover demand should also offer some - albeitunquantifiable - differential in terms of cost tooSo what will it take to get the stuff out of theground and into the tank of the NorthAmerican HD fleet
At present industry figures suggest that a dieselequivalence comparison with natural gas interms of cost shows a fairly marked differentialof US$150 - US$200 per diesel equivalentgallon at current natural gas prices This is asignificant difference but the lack of widespreadavailability causes it to remain something of anabstract number
Today there are around 150000 gasoline and75000 diesel filling stations within NorthAmerica Natural gas (CNG) outlets numberjust over 1100 This lack of infrastructure isclearly an issue especially given the furorecaused by the mooted adoption of DEF for EPA10 compliance and the infrastructurearguments that were rolled out during the leadin to 2010 The latter was predicated upon the
ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supplygallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelvesPiping natural gas to those same truckstopswould seem like a rather more involvedundertaking but it is clearly one that has to beaddressed before any form of wider spreadadoption can even begin to be considered Doesthis make natural gas a simple energy play in thiscontext At one level yes but infrastructureissues are not the only restraint here
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HDsegment and there are plenty of diesel enginesfrom which to choose Natural gas does notsuffer from the same plentitude with only twoengine choices on offer Both produced by theCummins Westport JV the ISL G is an 89-litre250-320 bhp offering that falls short of therequirements of mainstream Class 8 truckswhile the HD15 15-litre unit which outputs400-550 bhp is realistically the only choiceavailable to HD operators requiring a like-for-like natural gas alternative
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraintin two ways On the one hand what amounts toa single engine choice may serve to delegitimisenatural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel inthe mindset of the mainstream North Americantrucking industry And perhaps in part becauseof the scarcity value the on-cost of specifying anatural gas unit is significant the incrementalcost generally cited ranges between US$45000- US$100000 over a comparable diesel-powered truck This additional expense lies in
the engine (30) and the gas tanks (70) and isclearly noteworthy So too are the costsinherent in retrofitting service bays for naturalgas trucks at US$200000 - US$300000 Insummation opting for natural gas requiresconsiderable upfront investment
A key catalyst to development here looks to bethe launch later this year of the CumminsWestport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit While this isbeing slow-marched to market it will befollowed in 2014 by Volvorsquos dual fuel 13-litreunit and in 2015 by Cumminsrsquo own gas-powered 15-litre unit It seems reasonable toassume that a broader engine choice will serveto address both the legitimacy argument andpossibly reduce the initial cost implications too
If the natural gas product range increases then itseems reasonable to assume that so too will thewillingness on the part of the suppliers to growinfrastructure If these two key restraints areremoved then the third less obvious but equallyimportant barrier to adoption should also bemitigated and a larger adoption rate shouldallow some semblance of residual valuediscussion to take place
Natural gas exists in a strange place at presentThere is an abundance of supply and thetechnology exists to harness it And while somefleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiencyat EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
somewhat a more cost effective fuel type isnever going to be dismissed out of hand
There is much more to debate here theargument that sets CNG against LNG is onethat is still in its infancy while at a broader levelthe sustainability of the North American gassupply remains in question Clearly if thedifferential between diesel and natural gasnarrows significantly then this too will skew anyfuture reckonings
That said and with a number of other caveatsit is hard to believe that the North Americantrucking segment should not constitute asignificant end market for natural gas in thecoming years The barriers to adoption areclear but are far from insurmountable whilethe benefits are both demonstrable andquantifiable
OEMs have a clear and vested interest inretaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a globallevel A focused effort upon natural gas forNorth America alone is unlikely to be welcomedby equipment suppliers which increasingly preferto view the world as a common market
However at the end of January the EuropeanCommission published the Clean Power forTransport package which includes a proposalfor a Directive on the deployment of analternative fuels infrastructure aimed atdeveloping harmonised standards and settingclear targets for the rollout of consolidatedalternative fuels among which CNG and LNGplay an important role The paper demands amaximum 150km distance between CNG and400km between LNG fuelling stations at anational level Europe-wide by 2020
If we add this European initiative to the situationin North America then the obvious conclusionis one that sees the likely marketplace for naturalgas growing significantly in two major globaltruck markets At this point globalisedequipment suppliers would seem to have littlechoice but to fall into line
Is natural gas going to have an impact on theNorth American trucking industry Without adoubt but it is an impact that will take sometime to arrive Perhaps the hardest task atpresent is not one of selling the logic but ofmanaging the expectations Transport isultimately a highly conservative change-averseindustry But changes do happen natural gas willplay a significant role in the years to come Howsignificant remains to be seen
Oliver Dixon is Editor World Truck AnalysisBTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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Megatrends
54Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Always on always connected M2M comes to the auto industryAutomotive OEMs see machine to machine (M2M) technology as a way of generating revenue anddifferentiating themselves from their competition Myriad business opportunities exist from consumerinfotainment to traffic management safety and security Megatrends talks to Vodafone which isanticipating significant growth in its M2M business
Martin Kahl
The concept of lsquoalways on always connectedrsquois becoming a reality As the global ownershipof mobile devices grows so too does thenumber of business opportunities WorldwideVodafone expects the number of peopleconnected to grow to three billion over thenext three years
Within this a key growth area for Vodafone ismachine to machine (M2M) Vodafonersquos M2Moperations sit within its Enterprise divisionwhich represents 24 of the companyrsquosoverall global revenue and Vodafone isexpecting its M2M business to continue togrow significantly The company currently hasaround 400 million consumer hand-heldconnections globally and 88 million M2Mconnections - it is expecting the latter togrow rapidly driven largely by the automotiveindustry domestic and industrial smartmetering and health industry applications ascompanies seek new ways to meet regulationsreduce costs and increase efficiency
In terms of where in the world M2M growthcan be expected Tony Guerion Head ofMachine to Machine at Vodafone GroupServices told Megatrends that ldquoAsia will growquite significantly over the next three or fouryears due to the availability of mobilerdquo So toowill ldquothe Americas including South Americawhere growth will be at the same pace asEurope roughly 28-30
ldquoThe question is no longer lsquowhat cantechnology dorsquo Now itrsquos how can we use thatto gain a business advantagersquo The evolution ofM2M is going to accelerate dramatically overthe next 18-24 months and there are a fewreasons for that The first is regulatory andvaries from region to region The EU isaggressively driving the adoption of M2Mincluding smart metering in homes and eCall
so that if a caris involved in acrash theemergencyservices arealerted Wedonrsquot knowwhether theregulation willbe introducedin 2015 or2016 but whatis certain isthat everybodyin the industryis talking about it and starting to implementitrdquo
Automotive OEMs see M2M as a way ofgenerating revenue and differentiatingthemselves from their competition be thatthrough infotainment different or additionaltelematics services or billing the customerslightly differently Myriad businessopportunities exist in areas such as consumerinfotainment traffic management safetysecurity and eCall Vodafone is also workingwith the insurance industry on usage-basedcar insurance related to when drivers usetheir cars and their driving pattern
Speaking to Automotive World at AutomotiveMegatrends India 2012 held in Chennai inSeptember Hitoshi Ono Global BusinessDevelopment Manager - Automotive atVodafone said ldquoWe have a very large interestin the automotive industry from a telematicsperspective and Vodafone is creating uniqueservices infrastructures and products tosupport thisrdquo
There are two ways of delivering automotivetelematics applications explained Ono ldquoThe
first is the mobile phone unit connecting tothe head unit called tethering And another ishaving embedded connectivity in the carVodafone M2M focuses on the latterrdquo
A number of opportunities exist for providersof automotive M2M technology ldquofor examplesafety and security and infotainmentrdquo saidOno ldquoThen there are peripheral services likecustomer retention-focused applicationscustomer acquisition-focused application anddata reapplication There are multiple streamsthat arise from telematics applications todaythat we are starting to realise We are firsttrying to provide basic managed connectivitythat is completely unique to OEMrequirements We have already built certaincomponents like an automotive-grademachine to machine-dedicated SIM as well asthe dedicated machine to machine platformrdquo
The forthcoming Opel Adam is an exercise inpersonalisation with over a million ways forbuyers to individualise their car andconnectivity will play a key role in thatstrategy Opel says the Adam will be ldquothe mostconnected car on the marketrdquo At the 2013Detroit Auto Show Ford and GM announced
Itrsquos easier to cross borders
when yoursquore not carrying any baggage
copy 2
013
EYG
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imite
d A
ll R
ight
s Re
serv
ed
To make the most of your companyrsquos growth into new markets itrsquos sometimes important to let go of old habits Find out how we can help you seize opportunities to grow at eycomautomotive See More | Growth
plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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plans to open up their APIs [applicationprogramming interface] to externaldevelopers and a year earlier at AutomotiveMegatrends USA 2012 in Detroit OnStarannounced its plans to open up its APIs
Vodafone takes a similar approach saidGuerion ldquoWe are looking to develop thenumber of APIs that we have and to ensurethat whatever we can provide to carmanufacturers is actually relevant to the carindustry and if that means opening the APIs todevelopers we will Indeed we already do this- we have a programme called DeveloperSupport where we help our customers buildthe right applications but also to build theright API environment That is clearlysomething we need to do Up to now becausesome of the requirements were more or lessthe same we have a library of APIs that meetour needs But in the future there will be aneed to make sure that we have flexibility inopening APIs and making sure that we canoffer additional streams of information orwhatever it is to car manufacturersrdquo
At the same time what is offered needs to besafe What responsibility does a company likeVodafone have that ensures that what isoffered meets automotive standards andregulations ldquoWe have SLAs [service levelagreements] so everything we do with in thiscase car manufacturers is coveredcontractually You can imagine that there is noway that a big OEM will take any risk aroundinformation breaches for examplerdquo
Providing services is one thing Encouragingpeople to utilise those services is another ldquoIfwe want end-users to actually use theseservicesrdquo Guerion said ldquowe need to workwith the car manufacturers to come up withthe right pricing and billing strategies Youdonrsquot want your end-user to receive 20different bills We need to do things in a smartway - thatrsquos quite a challenge and we areinvesting in that because the experience forthe driver will be a differentiator for carmanufacturersrdquo
The emerging markets are particularlyinteresting when it comes to the level ofconnectivity that an occupant in a vehicle canenjoy Some OEMs offer global productsothers tailor their products to specificmarkets be it the vehicle itself or the contentoffered within the vehicle ldquoDifferent marketshave different needs and different carmanufacturers have different needsrdquo Guerionagreed ldquoOne of the requirements for BMW isto make sure that whatever is delivered canbe used globally making sure that the servicewill work globally and that the features of theservice are available globally For BMW it doesnot make any difference whether you are inAlbania Qatar or Germany All global OEMsare looking for global solutions but they arealso looking to fine-tune them to certainmarkets to make sure that they comply localmarket regulations and that they meet thedemands of the local populationrdquo
In emerging markets most vehicle occupantsare likely to have a cellphone but they willprobably not be in a car with an embeddedtelematics or infotainment platform Thus thecar remains a black spot for as long as thedevice cannot be connected to the vehiclersquosexisting audio system for example How isVodafone as a provider able to bridge the
divide between those people who have abuilt-in device such as ConnectedDrive in aBMW and those who would like theirbrought-in device to be connected ldquoThemajor OEMs want connectivity to beembedded at the car factory In emergingmarkets we need to find a clever way to usea cellphone to deliver these services Wersquovebeen working on ways to use the mobilephone and understand how we can deliverservices but our focus so far has been onworking with the bigger manufacturersrdquo
As for developing technology and services tobring in the many millions of olderlsquodisconnectedrsquo vehicles on the worldrsquos roadsldquowe are still working on thatrdquo said Guerionand it all comes down to cost ldquoWhateveryou provide it needs to be cost-efficient Ifyou want to offer on-demand services andinfotainment you need to ensure that thesolution is cost-effective and that thebusiness case is attractive enough to go backto cars that are three four or five years oldand we havenrsquot made a decision on that atthis stagerdquo
As noted earlier peripheral services are also akey part of automotive M2M developmentsand an example of this is work with theinsurance industry ldquoWe are working withinsurance companies to provide them with theright data so that they can define driverprofiles and then through use of an algorithmcome up with the right insurance price fordriversrdquo said Guerion ldquoWe see insurance as abig driver for M2M applications especially inthe automotive industry This is something wehave been looking at in India where you willbe paying as you drive based on factors suchas the distance time and speed that you driveThe insurance companies have come up with away to calculate a price on a daily or distancebasis for example That will be hugerdquo
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
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y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
President Barack Obama having won re-election in November took the oath of officefor his second four-year term on 20 JanuaryFor the next two years he will work with aCongress that was changed only slightly bythe presidential elections the Democratsretained and slightly expanded their Senatemajority while the Republican Party retaineda slightly smaller majority in the House ofRepresentatives The political outlook for2013 thus far remains uncertain with fearsthat the gridlock which gripped Washingtonin 2011 and 2012 could continue
So what is this new year in Washington likelyto bring for the automotive industry Firstthe industry will be dealing with a host ofnew policy makers - not an unusual situationat the start of a presidentrsquos second termTransportation Secretary Ray LaHoodEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA)Administrator Lisa Jackson and Secretary ofEnergy Steven Chu have already said thatthey are leaving There have also beenchanges at lower levels of the EPA and otheragencies which although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obamaadministration policies will change the policymakers with whom the industry interacts
However President Obamarsquos re-election andthe somewhat surprising expansion of theDemocratsrsquo Senate majority ensures thatthere will be no fundamental changes in manyof the policies that most directly affect theautomotive industry For example theadministration will now continue toimplement the countryrsquos first-ever rulesregulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsfrom the largest new or modified stationarysources and from mobile sources includingcars and trucks - issued during Obamarsquos firstterm If control of both houses of Congressandor the White House had been handed tothe Republicans such regulations could havebeen slowed or even rolled back
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead the surprising prominencethat the President gave to climate change inhis second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reducecarbon emissions - particularly since pollsshow that record temperatures in the US lastyear have revived public concern about globalwarming This does not mean that Obama willresuscitate proposals for a national cap-and-trade system however Such proposals whichstalled during his first term still have littlesupport in Congress
Nevertheless it does mean that the Obamaadministration can be expected to continueusing its existing authority under the CleanAir Act to expand its efforts to regulate
GHG emissions - something that does notrequire additional action by Congress Manyof these efforts will focus on stationarysources especially new and potentiallyexisting power plants but they could wellaffect car and truck emissions too
Most notably for the coming year the carbonemissions and corporate average fueleconomy (CAFE) rules for passenger carsand light trucks issued in 2012 will be fullyimplemented between now and model year(MY) 2025 These rules could be modified fortheir final four years (MY 2022-25) through amid-term review in 2018 but wholesalechanges at that time are very unlikely Theserules are already pushing manufacturers tomake significant increases in light-vehicle fueleconomy credits and incentives are alsohelping to drive continued interest in electricplug-in hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehiclesparticularly in light of zero-emission vehicle(ZEV) sales requirements in California and adozen other states
GHG emissions and fuel consumptionstandards
Looking to the medium- and heavy-dutymarket rules finalised in 2011 for the firsttime subject medium- and heavy-dutyvehicles to GHG emissions and fuelconsumption standards The current rules willbe phased in over model years 2014-18 theObama administration is expected to use itssecond term to propose a new set of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions rules forthe heavy-duty market to take effect startingin MY 2019
It is also widely expected that theEnvironmental Protection Agency will nowmove ahead with planning new Tier Threerules to reduce light-vehicle emissions ofrsquocriteriarsquo pollutants - such as carbonmonoxide nitrogen oxides etc - and toreduce the sulphur content of fuel Theautomotive industry has generally beensupportive of a national Tier Three standardwhich would keep vehicle manufacturersfrom having to certify vehicles to separateCalifornia and federal standards Converselythe oil industry opposes the low-sulphur fuelrules needed to allow more stringentemissions controls These Tier Threeproposals could come in 2013 with a goal oftaking effect as early as MY 2017
Support for the development ofadvanced vehicle technologies
The Obama administration will also continue
to advocate federal support for developingadvanced vehicle technologies and vehicleelectrification including development ofadvanced batteries though the administrationrecently recognised that electric vehicledemand has increased more slowly than itonce expected These efforts to support thedevelopment of vehicle technologies will belimited however by budget realities In factsuch programmes at the Department ofEnergy (DOE) are already facing mandatorycuts as part of debt and deficit reductionefforts and those financial pressures areunlikely to ease
Many of these programmes saw significantincreases in funding under the economicstimulus strategy implemented during therecession but such a surge in federal dollarscannot be expected over the next few yearsAt the same time federal advanced vehicletechnologies programmes have enoughsupport from industry and the White Houseto avoid overly steep budget cutsDevelopment of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) andvehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technologiescould also be affected by ongoing co-operative research between industry and theTransportation Department which may alsodecide in the year ahead how to proceedwith rules related to connected-vehicletechnologies
Interest in natural gas is expected togrowhellip
Natural gas will be an area of growinginterest in the coming months especially inthe commercial vehicle market but thisinterest is being fueled more by marketdevelopments than government mandates orincentives The dramatic increase in USnatural gas production using hydraulicfracturing (fracking) and directional drillinghas pushed domestic natural gas prices tovery low levels where they are expected toremain for some time These low prices in
turn are driving interest in natural gas-fuelledvehicles Interest is focused for now on themedium- and heavy-duty commercial vehiclemarkets most notably transit and short-haulvehicles but interest could grow in the long-haul market as a national natural gasinfrastructure is developed Budget pressureswill likely limit any federal financial incentivesaimed at promoting the use of natural gas invehicles though federal emissions rules dooffer credits for natural gas vehicles and thefederal government may have a role to play indeveloping a natural gas infrastructure
hellipas interest in biofuels fades
In sharp contrast to the growing interest innatural gas Washingtonrsquos interest in biofuelshas faded notably Several key federalincentives for ethanol and other biofuelswere recently allowed to lapse though thefederal renewable fuel standard RFS2 willrequire continued increases in the use ofethanol through 2022 In addition the EPArecently allowed the use of E-15 - 85gasoline 15 ethanol - in MY 2001 andnewer light vehicles despite automotiveindustry concerns about the damage thatcould be caused in vehicles designed to useE-10 Further federal incentives for biofuelsseem unlikely in the near future
These comments have focused largely onregulatory or legislative developments thatdirectly affect the car and truck industriesbut the US vehicle market will also beaffected by a host of policy decisions - onsuch issues as the federal debt ceiling federalspending tax reform etc - that could have ahuge impact on the economic recovery Moreimportantly the automotive industry like allof American business would benefit if theObama administration and members ofCongress could break the partisan gridlockthat made the outgoing Congress the leastpopular and most ineffective in recent historyEnding that dysfunctional situation would bethe best gift Washington could give to theautomotive industry in 2013
Ian C Graig chief executive of Global PolicyGroup Inc has written in the past for AutomotiveWorld and Megatrends magazine on a widevariety of US policy trends and their implicationsfor the automotive industry Global Policy Group isa Washington-based policy research andconsulting firm whose clients include leading USEuropean and Japanese firms in the automotiveenergy utility information technology and financialservices sectors For more information visitwwwglobalpolicycom or contact Ian Graig directlyat iangraigglobalpolicycom
Outlook 2013 the Obamaadministration Congress and the auto industryIan C Graig Global Policy Group
The political outlook for2013 thus far remains
uncertain with fears that thegridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012could continue
President Obamarsquos re-election and thesomewhat surprising
expansion of the DemocratsrsquoSenate majority ensure thatthere will be no fundamental
changes in many of thepolicies that most directlyaffect the automotive
industry
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
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Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
2Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
As vehicles age the heat affected zone aroundspot welds can develop micro cracking thatleads to increased flexing of the body This canlead to squeaks and rattles from trimcomponents especially where tolerances havebeen tightened to increase the feeling ofquality The current trend is strongly towardsan increasingly premium experience so this isa developing problem reflected in a growingnumber of costly squeak and rattle warrantyclaims
Wersquove worked with one vehicle manufacturerwho was so concerned by this issue that itwas stopping them offering the longerwarranties that increasing competition in theirsector demanded Traditional work-aroundsolutions such as additional spot welding orTIG welding of the body-in-whitesupplemented by new reinforcing componentshad already been rejected due to theincreased cost and manufacturing complexityThe project with 3M was so successful that anumber of barrier components or compliantfoams used at critical trim interfaces toreduce squeak and rattle were also eliminatedcreating further savings in materials andprocesses
Can you comment on any potentialsafety benefits
Safety is another reason to adopt adhesivejoining particularly as a supplement toconventional techniques Vehicles with fatiguedwelds are clearly not as safe as new vehiclesbut there are further layers of complexity tothe safety case Structural engineers now haveto manage more energy more quickly in
smaller spaces so consistency is vital Pointfixing such as spot-welding creates localisedstress points but adhesive bonding spreadsthe loads not only making the join strongerbut also allowing more of the material tocontribute to energy absorption Some newlightweight structures would not be possiblewithout adhesives to improve crashworthiness And unlike welds an adhesivebond maintains the majority of its strengththroughout the vehiclersquos life
Do adhesives offer any advantages interms of weight reduction compared towelding
Spot welds are by definition points of highstress so the main light-weighting advantage isthat by spreading the stresses across a widerarea you enable the use of thinner gaugematerials The increased stiffness coupled withthe superior durability of the join also allowssome reinforcing components to beeliminated
The elimination of the need to weld all thecomponents also enables the use ofmaterials that can be difficult and expensiveor impossible to weld such as aluminium andcarbon fibre We are seeing growing use ofhybrid structures where disparate materialssuch as steel and aluminium or aluminiumand carbon must be joined You canrsquot weldthese combinations so you either have touse physical fastenings which are expensiveto apply and create localised stresses or youbond them Even lower cost cars now use aconsiderable multitude of steelspecifications many of which are difficult to
weld or difficult to weld to steels withsignificantly different specificationsAdhesives are largely materials independent- particularly with the new generations that3M is developing specifically to reducesubstrate sensitivity - so are an importantenabling technology for these more complexlight-weight hybrid structures
How will the use of adhesives in carmanufacturing evolve in the nextdecade
Applications are growing in every region asvehicle manufacturers come under increasingpressure to reduce fuel consumption andCO2 emissions The 2020 requirements canonly accelerate this trend drivingsophisticated materials into higher volumesegments
3M is focussing its RampD on techniques thatallow this to be accomplished alongsideimprovements in process robustness andefficiency that often more than mitigate theincreased cost of materials Irsquom also going topredict that it wonrsquot just be materials thatchange but that we will also start to see newconstruction architectures in volumeproduction With so many vehicles now relianton structural adhesives body-in-whiteengineers are developing tremendousconfidence in the technique We are alreadyseeing some concepts using adhesives toopen-up possibilities for radical newarchitectures Irsquod say wersquoll see some of theseideas entering production possibly insignificant volumes driven by the reduction inweight that can be achieved
Megatrends
1 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
Can you please outline the current useof adhesives in light vehicles and inmedium and heavy commercialvehicles
The growing popularity of adhesive bonding ofbody-in-white is driven by a range ofinterrelated benefits that the industry is onlyjust starting to fully exploit Early applicationswere largely focused on addressing specificissues usually to either solve structuralproblems with vehicles already in productionor to reduce weight by integrating aluminiumor thinner gauge steels alongside conventionalsteels Today we are seeing body-in-whiteengineers designing vehicles specifically to takeadvantage of a wide range of benefits leadingto greater stiffness lower manufacturing costsreduced weight improved durability superiorpackaging and greater long-term refinement
CVs present a slightly different requirement asthe focus is on maximising payload and spacerather than ride handling and refinementHowever the large lsquoopenrsquo structures and needfor the best possible access also lendthemselves well to the use of structuraladhesive The weight challenge is also sharedas every kilo saved on the vehicle can translateto an extra kilo of payload (for the same ladenkerb weight)
What are the differences in cost andease of use of adhesives versustraditional welding
Thatrsquos a complex question because there are somany variables Generally welding stationsrequire vastly more capital Adhesives can beapplied robotically to give excellent consistencybut in some areas they can also be applied byhand as a pre-shaped film We also have toconsider the savings that can be made on thevehicle structure Spreading the stress of thebond across a wider area compared with a spotweld allows a thinner gauge material to beused with significant cost and weight savings Insome instances sections of reinforcing can beeliminated and the number of welds reducedExcellent gap filling properties can eliminate theneed for additional sealants or for costlytooling changes while zero read-through -there is no damage to the reverse surface -means there is no need for additional finishingor trim components
We are also finding that our customers areusing the unique pre-cure capability of 3Madhesives to simplify manufacturing processesin other ways by allowing more subassemblyto be conducted off-line before paint or evenoff-site The time between assembly and bakewhen the structural adhesives are cured in the
paint ovens can be weeks allowing batchmanufacture and manufacture at alternativelocations without risk of assembly distortionThis can be particularly useful for theassembly of closures with increasingly denseelectrical and electronic content whereassembly by a supplier can providemanufacturing and capital savings Adhesivesalso help to release packaging space and allowoptimised geometries because there is norequirement for access by a welding gun
How easy is it for manufacturers toswitch from traditional weldingtechniques to using adhesives
You wouldnrsquot switch completely unless youwere moving to a substantially different bodytechnology like carbon or possibly aluminiumWe are finding that most vehiclemanufacturers start by introducing adhesivesas a supplement to spot welds or rivets as anincremental change to solve specificchallenges This helps them build confidence inthe technology and develop in-houseexpertise Then the next vehicle is designedfrom the beginning to more fully exploit thebenefits of adhesive joining
Is there a difference in the durability ofadhesives versus welding
How adhesive bondinghas made gluing carstogether a realityGreater stiffness lower manufacturing costs reduced weightimproved durability superior packaging and greater long-termrefinement - these are some of the many requirements of themodern automotive body-in-white As the industry strives to meetthese demands one technique finding its way into the mainstreamis the use of adhesive bonding Megatrends talked to Jeff Kappsenior technical specialist (structural adhesives) at Tier One joiningspecialist 3M to find out more
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
In October 2012 the US Department ofTransportationrsquos National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) issued aconsumer safety advisory to alert vehicleowners and repair professionals to thedangers of counterfeit airbags
NHTSA had become aware of problemsranging from non-deployment to expulsion ofmetal shrapnel during deployment The airbagslook nearly identical to certified original partswith leading manufacturersrsquo branding marks
The move follows police seizing nearly 1600counterfeit airbags from a North Carolinamechanic in August 2012 a counterfeitautomotive parts ring was buying fake airbagsfrom a plant in China where the bags weresold for a fraction of the usual cost In the firstnine months of 2012 US Immigration andCustoms Enforcement was reported to haveseized around 2500 counterfeit airbags
Brand protection in China can be a veryfrustrating enterprise for brand owners as thevictims of Chinese counterfeiters and forthose professionals trying to help them byproviding effective solutions It is alsofrustrating for EU and US government officialstrying to encourage China to overcome andremove everyday obstacles to the effectiveenforcement of trademark and design rights
It is this lack of political will in the Chineseprovinces that is hindering national efforts todeliver a lasting defence against counterfeitersWhile the central government in Beijing hasstepped up and improved intellectual propertylaws and guiding policies everyday trademarkenforcement and anti-counterfeiting actionsare handled locally In such a huge countrylocal enforcement authorities are usuallyphysically very far from Beijing and are ofteninclined to serve local economic and politicalinterests rather than closely following nationalpolicies and the rule of law
Trademark enforcement authorities includinglocal judges and other officials are appointed bythe local governments and municipalities whichoften have interests in economic activitieswhich may directly or indirectly profit frombusiness generated by counterfeiters In somecases local governments have invested financialresources in the construction of marketswhere counterfeit spare parts are sold
It is often forgotten that counterfeitingbusinesses also create satellite industries of alawful nature which benefit the local economyand labour market For example lawfullyoperating trading and shipping companies maybe involved in the sale and distribution ofcounterfeit goods Local governmentsespecially those at municipal and district levelare therefore reluctant to implement anti-counterfeiting policies for fear of damaging
the local economy and labour marketIn spite of this hostile environment shortterm enforcement through investigation andadministrative raiding of counterfeit spare partfactories and warehouses is a necessary evilfor OEMs The best way to reduce the risk inthis unfavourable legal environment is formanufacturers to set clear objectives whendetermining their brand protection budgetsand strategies and the tools they choose toimplement these strategies
In particular OEMs need to adjust theirintellectual property rights portfolios in Chinain order to respond effectively to the differenttypes of threats posed by counterfeiters Astrong IP portfolio is a precondition for
successful enforcement flawed portfolios maybe used by authorities as an excuse to denyenforcement Manufacturers must also bear inmind that brand protection should not focusonly on trademarks but also design patents
OEMs should concentrate and even intensifyraiding and administrative enforcement in keyChinese regions to create good relations withlocal enforcement authorities Eventually toefficiently allocate financial resources intenseenforcement should be focused only oncounterfeit of goods where the added value isnot based only on the brand but also on therelated technical performance and safety of theproduct By actively preventing such key spareparts from entering global markets risksderiving from warranty and safety claimsarising from malfunctions and accidents causedby non-genuine parts will also be prevented
The automotive and manufacturing industriesneed to recognise that brand protectionaccomplishes more than protection of thebrand name it helps to avoid the warrantysafety and legal risks related to productmalfunctions and personal injuries caused byflawed non-genuine parts
This article first appeared in the Comment sectionof AutomotiveWorldcom For more expert insightsand analysis of the global automotive andcommercial vehicle industries visitautomotiveworldcomcomment TheAutomotiveWorldcom Comment column is opento automotive industry decision makers andinfluencers If you would like to contribute anarticle please contacteditorialautomotiveworldcom
Dr Paolo Beconcini is a Partner at CBMInternational Lawyers He specialises in intellectualproperty and product liability law and has workedfor many leading automotive brands Now based inBeijing with CBM Lawyers International Beconcinihas been working in China for over 11 years
Auto brands must
confront counterfeiting
in ChinaDr Paolo Beconcini CBM International Lawyers
It is this lack of political will inthe Chinese provinces that ishindering national efforts to
deliver a lasting defence againstcounterfeiters
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Megatrends
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcomQ1 2013
Industry viewpoint
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | wwwautomotiveworldcom Q1 2013
The global automotive industry has comea long way since the upheaval of a fewyears ago as evidenced by the recent2013 North American International AutoShow (NAIAS) in Detroit not only wasthere an array of gleaming new vehiclesand greener models but also a newoptimism thanks to an industry rebirththat is in large part working
Yet the ability to sustain success resultsfrom taking full advantage of everyopportunity and some OEMs and dealersare not focusing enough on digitalmarketing an area that can have a directimpact on the bottom line The first stopfor more and more car shoppers is notthe dealer showroom but the InternetAnd while conventional wisdom wouldsuggest that car websites should aid andsupport sales performance a newAccenture global survey of 13000 drivers
in 11 countries suggests that the currentstate of industry websites may behindering it
The study conducted in Brazil ChinaFrance Germany India Indonesia ItalyJapan Malaysia South Korea and the USfound that while consumers are generallysatisfied with their online experiencethey want content on automotiveindustry websites customised to be morerelevant to their specific car-buying needsand they believe such a change wouldmake the process simpler and faster Of
the consumers surveyed who say theyresearch their car purchases onlinebefore buying a vehicle 78 visit at leastsix websites or more first and 15 saythey browse more than 20 websites toget the information they need
Furthermore 75 say they still need toturn to more traditional offline media forthe information required to make theircar-buying decision
In the coming months other major motorshows at cities across the globe - fromGeneva and Shanghai to New YorkFrankfurt and Tokyo - will introduce thelatest cars trucks and in-vehicle technologydesigned to encourage car-buying andenhance OEM and dealer profitability Ascar shoppers depend more and more onwebsites to make their car-buying choicesit only makes good business sense forcompanies to put as much effort intodeveloping an effective interactive digitalmarketing platform just as it does to createextraordinary physical presentations likemotor shows and to establish successfulbrick and mortar dealerships
Putting digital marketing to better use willonly complement the OEMdealerbusiness model and could yield anincrease in topline sales for the industryof 1-2 83 of those polled believe thatimproved websites would significantlyreduce the time needed to purchase avehicle They also want a better integratedonline-offline sales process that providesa seamless transition from shopping onthe web to completing the car purchasein the showroom
Moreover the desire for better digitalmarketing is not borne out of interactionwith automotive industry websites alone
More than three quarters of consumers(76) feel that the sector significantly lagsother retail industries in the use of digitalmedia tools such as video and 360-degreemedia tours - and the vast majority ofrespondents believe that betterinteractive digital marketing is a must forthe automotive industry
The study goes on to reveal thatshoppers would be willing to elevate theonline-offline sales process even moreGiven the opportunity 93 wouldconsider having the option of making theentire purchase of a car online includingfinancing price negotiation the back officepaperwork and delivery to their homeSome of this may not be possible nowBut if such a scenario were to becomefeasible it too would only serve toaugment and enhance sales performancenot hinder it
One of the most pressing challengesfacing retailers across industries today ishaving the ability to continuously giveconsumers what they want in an onlineexperience and effectively integrate thatexperience into their brick and mortaroperations Although the automotiveindustry is experiencing a strong recoveryOEMs and dealers must focus onproviding a consistent customerexperience to the online sales processConsumers want better online supportadvice and personalisation when buying acar Through the use of sophisticateddigital technology better onlineinteraction with customers can simplifythe buying process
Luca Mentuccia is Automotive IndustryGlobal Managing Director with Accenture aglobal management consulting technologyservices and outsourcing company
OEMs and dealers
must not ignore online
car-buyingLuca Mentuccia Accenture
75 of consumers surveyedsay they still need to turn to
more traditional offlinemedia for the informationrequired to make their car-
buying decision
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
Why ATPe EncaotectivPr
Why ATPds with Exposedcar
ace Mount T (SurfSMTtion Moldingpsulae Enca
Componets and Contactsds with Exposed
y)hnologecace Mount T
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier 1rsquos
PPAP PSW - Part Submission Warrant IMDSAEC Q 100
In agreement with customers ATP performs AEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
Why ATPProtective Encapsulation Molding SMT (Surface Mount Technology)
cards with ExposedComponets and Contacts
Industry Leading NAND Flash Storage for Automotive IVI
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
rsquos1Proven by Leading IVI OEM and Tier
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
ISOTS 169492009
ISO 140012004
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applications performs TPAIn agreement with customers
AEC Q 100IMDS
- Part Submission WarrantPSWPPAP
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are performs
- Part Submission Warrant
adjusted to meet the SD card specification and requirements of IVI applicationsAEC Q100 qualification whereas the test conditions are
