auto kamco research roc, .tasi 6,200 value …800 6,900 7,000 7,100 7,200 7,300 7,400 7,500 7,290.96...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Technical Analysis
Saudi Stock Exchange
Technical Analysis – Saudi Stock Exchange 09-January-2018
Tadawul All Share Index <.TASI> closed at 7,290.96 point. The market continues to move within
an ascending trend line, eroding its MAs. Attention has shifted towards the next resistance layer
at 7,430 point ahead of the strong line at 7,600 point; however, a firm close above this is needed
to establish a new bull trend. On the counter side, some weaknesses could take place on the
coming period due to a natural downward correction, knowing that the nearby support levels
come at 7,230 point and 7,130 point, while below this would call for a fall back to 7,000 point.
Weekly and daily RSI indicators continue to point upwards at present.
Medium-term and long-term investors can stay in the market as long as the index is closing above
7,100 points and 6,940 points, respectively.
In this Report…
Tadawul Index……………..…. 1
CHEMANOL…....…...………... 2
SABIC….……………..…...…….. 2
HCC…….……......……….…...... 3
EPCCO……………….……......… 3
Faisal Hasan, CFA
Head - Investment Research
+(965) 2233 6907
Raed Diab
Vice President
+(965) 2233 6908
KAMCO Investment Research Department, 16th Floor, Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq, P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, Kuwait
Tel.: (+965) 1 852 626 Fax: (+965) 2249 2395 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.kamconline.com
KAMCO Research
Daily [.TASI List 1 of 177] .TASI 15/11/2016 - 30/01/2018 (RIY)
11,160
6,475
5,230
26.42
7,600
4,068
6,750
6,700
7,000
7,430
7,230
7,130
BarOHLC, .TASI
09/01/2018, 7,310.26, 7,318.24, 7,277.41, 7,290.96-19.30, (-0.26%)
Cndl, .TASI
09/01/2018, 7,310.26, 7,318.24, 7,277.41, 7,290.96, -19.30, (-0.26%)
WMA, .TASI
09/01/2018, 7,132.26
WMA, .TASI
09/01/2018, 7,089.95
WMA, .TASI
09/01/2018, 7,263.73
Price
SAR
Auto
6,000
6,100
6,200
6,300
6,400
6,500
6,600
6,700
6,800
6,900
7,000
7,100
7,200
7,300
7,400
7,500
7,290.967,290.96
7,132.267,089.95
7,263.73
16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 06 18 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18
Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 177] .TASI 25/03/2010 - 14/06/2018 (RIY)
MACD, .TASI
11/01/2018, 36.87, 13.47Value
SAR
Auto
-300
036.8713.47
RSI, .TASI
11/01/2018, 60.548Value
SAR
Auto
30
6060.548
Vol, .TASI
11/01/2018, 503.607MVolume
Auto
500M
1B
1.5B
2B
2.5B
3B
3.5B
503.607M
ROC, .TASI
11/01/2018, 0.437Value
SAR
Auto
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.437
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
KAMCO Research
January - 2018
2
Technical Analysis
Price closed at SAR9.80. The stock continues to point up along with an increase in trading activity
and its break above MAs; however, it currently encounters a strong resistance level at SAR10.25,
which if broken would promote further gains towards SAR11.40 and maybe more to SAR12.90. On
the other side, a downward correction could be seen on the short-term period due to the overbought
status of the RSI indicators, knowing that the nearby support levels come at SAR9.60 and SAR8.35.
Price closed at SAR101.29. The stock posted a top at SAR105.40 before it eased down but the overall
picture remains positive. However, failure to close above this line could trigger some weaknesses to
SAR100.80 and SAR97.00 but the horizontal line at SAR94.25 should prevent additional loses and
attract some buying potential. On the counter side, a break through SAR105.40 would pave the way
to SAR110.50 and maybe SAR118.75.
Methanol Chemicals Co. Reuters Ticker: <2001.SE>
Saudi Basic Industries Corp. Reuters Ticker: <2010.SE>
Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 177] 2001.SE 26/12/2012 - 18/04/2018 (RIY)
4.9
10.25
6.2
8.35
18.75
15.1
12.9
Cndl, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 9.95, 10.08, 9.60, 9.80, N/A, N/A
WMA, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 9.08
WMA, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 7.46
WMA, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 7.12
Price
SAR
Auto
6
8
10
12
14
16
9.809.08
7.467.12
MACD, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 0.73, 0.44 Value
SAR
Auto
0.730.44
RSI, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 79.780 Value
SAR
Auto
79.780
Vol, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 10.327M Volume
Auto
20M10.327M
ROC, 2001.SE
11/01/2018, 40.000 Value
SAR
Auto
40.000
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M AQ1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 177] 2010.SE 15/01/2014 - 28/03/2018 (RIY)
76
55.25
59.5
94.25
110.5
136.5
33.6
97
40
70
90.5
105.4
100.8
BarOHLC, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 101.80, 102.40, 101.00, 101.29N/A, N/A
Cndl, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 101.80, 102.40, 101.00, 101.29, N/A, N/A
WMA, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 101.20
WMA, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 99.81
WMA, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 95.95
Price
SAR
Auto
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
101.29101.29101.2099.8195.95
MACD, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 0.85, 0.83 Value
SAR
Auto
-5
0.850.83
RSI, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 56.927 Value
SAR
Auto
56.927
Vol, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, 12.619M Volume
Auto12.619M
ROC, 2010.SE
11/01/2018, -0.393 Value
SAR
Auto
-0.393
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F MQ1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
RSI 79.780
MACD 0.44
ROC 40.000
M10 9.10
M50 7.45
M100 7.10
S1 8.35
S2 6.20
S3 4.90
R1 10.25
R2 12.90
R3 15.10
RSI 56.927
MACD 0.83
ROC -0.393
M10 101.20
M50 99.80
M100 95.95
S1 100.80
S2 97.00
S3 94.25
R1 105.40
R2 110.50
R3 118.75
KAMCO Research
January - 2018
3
Technical Analysis
Hail Cement Co. Reuters Ticker: <3001.SE>
Price closed at SAR9.63. The stock found a strong support level at SAR7.95 (all-time low) before it
recovered upwards and shows promise for further gains. Overhead resistance levels are intense as
we have SAR10.20 and SAR11.25, while above this would target the strong line at SAR12.50. On the
negative side, some attempts to go down could be seen but an aggressive fall is not favored, knowing
that the nearby support levels are located at SAR9.30, SAR8.95 and SAR8.50.
Price closed at SAR27.10. The stock jumped on the last couple of weeks after the support level at
SAR21.70 rejected once again additional loses. Eyes now have shifted towards the horizontal line at
SAR28.00, while above it would most likely target SAR30.80, SAR33.40 and could be more to
SAR36.20. However, some short-term downward correction could take place to SAR25.00 and
SAR24.50 due to the overbought status of the daily RSI indicator.
Eastern Province Cement Co. Reuters Ticker: <3080.SE>
Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 177] 3001.SE 05/06/2013 - 11/04/2018 (RIY)
30.5
7.95
13.912.5
17.7
15.9
Cndl, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 9.87, 9.89, 9.63, 9.63, N/A, N/A
WMA, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 10.17
WMA, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 9.28
WMA, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 9.34
Price
SAR
Auto
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
9.6310.17
9.34
MACD, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, -0.06, -0.28 Value
SAR
Auto
-0.06-0.28
RSI, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 55.637 Value
SAR
Auto
55.637
Vol, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 1.036M Volume
Auto
5M
1.036M
ROC, 3001.SE
11/01/2018, 7.598 Value
SAR
Auto
7.598
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M AQ3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Weekly [.TASI List 1 of 177] 3080.SE 20/09/2012 - 26/04/2018 (RIY)
21.7
36.2
2830.8
33.4
BarOHLC, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 26.80, 27.20, 26.80, 27.10, N/A, N/A
Cndl, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 26.80, 27.20, 26.80, 27.10, N/A, N/A
WMA, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 24.44
WMA, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 24.51
WMA, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 26.35
Price
SAR
Auto
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
27.1027.1026.35
MACD, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 0.14, -0.52 Value
SAR
Auto
-2
0.14-0.52
RSI, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 67.178 Value
SAR
Auto
40
67.178
ROC, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 13.389 Value
SAR
Auto
13.389
Vol, 3080.SE
11/01/2018, 163,007.00 Volume
Auto
3M
163,007.00
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
RSI 55.637
MACD -0.28
ROC 7.598
M10 10.15
M50 9.30
M100 9.35
S1 9.30
S2 8.50
S3 7.95
R1 11.25
R2 12.50
R3 13.90
RSI 67.178
MACD -0.52
ROC 13.389
M10 24.45
M50 24.50
M100 26.35
S1 25.00
S2 24.50
S3 21.70
R1 28.00
R2 30.80
R3 33.40
KAMCO Research
January - 2018
4
Technical Analysis
Definitions
Technical Analysis: Aims to identify the direction of prices and reveal any indication of possible changes as soon as possible, so it can be used as much as possible in
making buying and selling decisions in the most appropriate time in order to minimize risk and maximize profits.
Trend: The general direction of a market or of the price of an asset.
Resistance: A chart point or range that caps an increase in the level of a stock or index over a period of time.
Support: The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock.
Breakout: A signal that prices are beginning to trend, either upward or downward.
Bull: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to rise.
Bear: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to decline.
Channel: is two parallel trend lines either rising or declining.
Consolidation Area: is a sideways movement in prices that interrupts or reverse a trend.
Moving Average (MA): The most common applications of MAs are to identify the trend direction and to determine support and resistance levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence): A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices.
Relative Strength Index: A technical momentum indicator (ranges from 0 to 100) that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to
determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.
Overbought: A situation in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign
that the price of the asset is becoming overvalued and may experience a pullback.
Oversold: A situation in which the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign
that the price of the asset is becoming undervalued and may represent a buying opportunity for investors.
Fibonacci: A term refers to areas of support or resistance and to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses.
On Balance Volume (OBV): is a simple running total of up day (added) and down day (subtracted) volume. If OBV is moving with price, it confirms the current trend.
Divergences between OBV and price indicates the price may be due for a reversal.
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KAMCO Investment Company - K.S.C. (Public) Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, State of Kuwait Tel: (+965) 1852626 Fax: (+965) 22492395 Email : [email protected] Website : http://www.kamconline.com