Austria’selection:Fourthingstoknowabouttheresult

Austria’slegislativeelection,heldon15October,sawtheAustrianPeople’sParty,ledbySebastianKurz,emergeasthelargestparty.ManèsWeisskircherandMatthewE.BergmanhighlightfourthingsworthknowingabouttheresultsofanelectionthatmightnotonlybeagamechangerforAustrianpolitics,butwhichalsoreflectedsomeofthekeypoliticaldevelopmentsincontemporaryWesternEurope.

On15October,roughlyfivemillionAustrianswenttothepollstoelectthenextNationalrat(NationalCouncil).Preliminaryresults,withprojectionsofthepostalvotes,showaclearwinner.Thecentre-rightAustrianPeople’sParty(ÖVP)wonaplurality,receiving31.6percent,whichissignificantlystrongerthaninthepastelectionof2013(+7.6).Theparty’sleader,the31-year-oldforeignministerSebastianKurz,islikelytobecomethenewchancellor.Remarkably,thiswasonlythesecondtimesince1966thattheSocialDemocrats(SPÖ)hadnotwonapluralityofvotes.

ThecurrentSPÖchancellorChristianKernwaspredictedinthepreliminaryresultstohavesecuredsecondplace,endingupatonly26.9percent–similartotheirrecordlowfrom2013(+0.1).TheradicalrightFreedomParty(FPÖ)wasputat26percent,substantiallyincreasingitsvoteshare(+5.5).BeforeKurztookoverthecentre-rightinMaythisyear,pollshadtheFPÖclearlyinfirstplace.

TheGreens(3.9percent),withtheonlyfemaleleaderofamajorAustrianparty,areatriskofnotpassingthefourpercentthreshold,withfinalresultsdueonThursday.Instead,thelistofPeterPilz,arenegadefromtheGreenParty,seemstohavepassedthethreshold(4.3percent).Theliberalpro-businessNEOSmanagedtheirsecondconsecutiveNationalratentry(with5.1percent).Theturnoutwas79.5percent.Thefigurebelowgivesanoverviewofthepreliminaryprojections.

Figure:Projectedresultsofthe2017Austrianelection

Note:Thesewereearlyprojectionsannouncedshortlyaftertheendofvotingandmaychange.Source:ORFandSORA

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Date originally posted: 2017-10-16

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Howdidtheresultscomeabout,andwhatconsequenceswilltheyhaveforAustriamovingforward?HerearefourthingstoknowabouttheshifttotherightinoneofthemostprosperousEUcountries.

1. Ashifttotheright–notonlyintheshadowofthe“refugeecrisis”

Theintensificationofthe“refugeecrisis”inEuropeisanimportantcontextualfactorforunderstandingtheAustrianvote.However,immigrationandintegrationhadalreadybeensalientissueslongbefore.TheriseoftheFPÖinthe1990s,undertheleadershipofJörgHaider,transformeddomesticpolitics.In2000,thefirstÖVP-FPÖgovernmentledto,inthecoalition’sownparlance,“sanctions”byotherEUmembers.Forthreedecades,thepoliticalmainstreamhasbeenstrugglingtofindeffectiveresponsestotheradicalrightchallenger.

Sincethesecondhalfof2015,however,theissuesofimmigrationandintegrationhavebecomeevenmorerelevanttomanyvotersandparties.AustriawasamongtheEUcountrieswiththehighestnumberofasylumapplicationsin2015and2016.Atitspeak,morethan50percentofAustriansreferredtoimmigrationasoneofthetwomostimportantissuesfacingthecountry.Atthebeginningof2017,thisnumberwassignificantlylower(between30and40percent),butstillsubstantiallyhigherthanithadbeenfrom2005to2015.

ManyindividualsandgroupsinAustriaactivelysupportedthenewlyarrivingimmigrants.Atthesametime,aChathamHousesurveyconductedinDecember2016andJanuary2017foundthat65percentofAustrianrespondentsagreedwiththestatement“AllfurthermigrationfrommainlyMuslimcountriesshouldbestopped”–ademandmoreradicalthanthe“MuslimBan”oftheTrumpadministration.Inthissurvey,supposedlyliberalGermanyhad53percentofrespondentsansweringsimilarly.

Giventhiscontext,itdoesnotseemsurprisingthattheAustrianradicalright,whichperformedparticularlywellwiththeyoung,men,andworkers,continuestobeelectorallysuccessful.Whatismoreinterestingisthatthecentre-rightmanagedtoperformaswellatitdid,significantlyincreasinginpopularityafterpollingonlythirdatthebeginningof2017.WhenKurztookover,thecentre-rightimmediatelyjumpedabout10percent.ThemainreasonforthiswasKurz’sstancesonimmigrationandintegration.

KurzclaimstohavereducedimmigrationtoEuropebyinitiatingtheclosureoftheBalkanrouteinFebruary2016,shortlybeforetheEUagreementwithTurkey.Beyondsuchanti-immigrationefforts,theÖVPhaspushedfora“Burqaban”.AlthoughtheÖVPhasnothadaliberalapproachtowardimmigrationandintegrationinthepast,theextenttowhichitputimmigrationandintegrationatthecentreoftheparty’splatformwascertainlynovel.ThestrategyofunderminingFPÖownershipoftheseissuescausedsignificantelectoralgainsforthecentre-right,atleastthisyear.

For42percentofÖVPvoters,Kurzwasthemainreasonfortheirchoice–substantiallymorethanthevaluesfortheleadingcandidatesoftheSPÖandFPÖ.However,theimportanceofKurzre-definingtheÖVPasa“new”People’sPartyandpersonalisingthemovement,althoughemphasisedbymanyobservers,probablyhadasmallerimpactthanhispoliticalstances.

2. Thefailureoftheleft

FortheAustrianleft,theelectionwasamajorsetback.TheSocialDemocratshavebeeninnationalgovernmentfor40ofthepast47years,frequentlyholdingthechancellorship–thiswillmostlikelychange.Meanwhile,theGreenscelebratedtheirformerpartyleaderAlexanderVanderBellenclinchingthepresidencylessthanayearago.Nowtheymightnotmakeitintoparliament.

ThetransformationandcrisisoftheEuropeanlefthasmanyimportantlong-termcausesthatarereflectedelsewhere,fromchangestothesizeandcompositionoftheworkingandmiddleclasses,tothedifficultiesposedbyEuropeanintegration,andthechallengeoffindingresponsestoimmigrationthatguaranteehumanrightsanddignityofthoseonthemovewhilestillattractingelectoralmajorities.Still,despitetheselong-termissues,theelectoraldefeatoftheAustrianleftwasnotinevitable.

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Inthepasteighteenmonths,theSPÖmissedseveralopportunitiestocallforsnapelectionswhentheÖVPobstructedmoreeffective“GrandCoalition”cooperation.WhenKurztooktheinitiative,itwastoolatefortheSPÖ.Duringtheelectoralcampaign,ChancellorKernsufferedfrompoorstrategicdecisionsand,evenmoresothanMartinSchulzinGermany,advisorsthatdestroyedhiselectoralchances.Thepartywasatthecentreofaseriesofrows,though,curiously,scandalsonthecentre-rightdidnotproducesimilardamagefortheÖVP.Someleft-wingAustrianpunditscontinuetoregardKernasatalentedindividualwhofailedtoreachhispotential,butakeyfuturechallengeforthepartywillbeitsagingvoterbase.

TheAustrianGreenshaverecentlybeenthemostelectorallysuccessfulrepresentativeoftheirpartyfamilyinWesternEurope.However,alreadyduringlastyear’spresidentialcampaign,thepartywasnotablyabsentinpushingitsownagenda–notdaringtorisktheelectabilityofVanderBellen.Afterthat,intra-partycontroversiesemerged,amongstothersrelatedtotheparty’sactionsinregionalgovernmentandthetreatmentofitsyouthactivists.

Alreadydeclininginthepolls,theGreensweredealtanotherblowinearlysummer,whenPeterPilz,oneoftheirformerkeyfigures,lefttheparty.IntheabsenceofasuccessfulradicalleftpartyinAustria,withtheimportantexceptionoftheCommunistsinGraz,Pilzformedhisownparty,pursuinganagendaself-describedas“left-wingpopulism”.Uniquely,however,Pilzcombinesaleft-wingsocialandeconomicagendawithpronouncedcriticismofliberalstancesonimmigrationandintegration.Otherindividualsonhislist–suchasGreenandSocialDemocraticrenegades–comeclosertothetypicalagendaofcontemporaryradicalleftpartiesinEurope.WhiletheGreensseemtohavelostvotestomanydifferentparties,thefateofListePeterPilzwillcertainlyshapetheirfutureelectoralfortunes.

3. Thefuturegovernmentcoalition

TheÖVPisnowspoiltforchoice.Thepartycouldleadtwodifferenttwo-partycoalitions.Oneoptionistoresumeworkina“GrandCoalition”,thistimewiththeSPÖasajuniorpartner.Theother,andaccordingtomanypundits,morelikelyoption,isanÖVPcoalitionwiththeradicalright.AnÖVP-ledminoritygovernmentseemsleastlikely–suchanarrangementwouldbeatypicalforAustrianpolitics.

Forthiselection,theSPÖdidnotexcludeforminganationalgovernmentwiththeFPÖ–thishadpreviouslybeenano-goforthenationalSPÖ.ItisunclearwhethertheSPÖwouldrisktheintrapartytensionsofmakingsuchamoveincasetheFPÖpreferredthemtotheÖVP.Iftheradicalrightentersthenextcoalition,oneoftheirmostfundamentalaimswillbetopreventtherepetitionofitspreviouselectoraldeclineanddivisionwhileingovernment.

Ultimately,PresidentVanderBellenwillbetheonetoswearinthegovernment.Personally,hissympathiesforgoverningradicalrightistsarecertainlylimited.Still,itdoesnotseemlikelythathewilltrytoactasavetoplayer.In1999/2000,thenPresidentThomasKlestil,acourageousconservative,illustratedthepotentialpitfallsinattemptingthis.Intheend,allhecoulddowasrefusetheappointmentoftwoFPÖpoliticiansasministers,pushinga“pro-European”preambletothecoalitionagreement,andshowingagrimfaceattheswearing-inceremony.Informally“semi-presidential”Austria,theNationalrathasdeterminedgovernmentformation–apatternthatdoesnotseemlikelytochangethistime.

4. Likelypolicyoutcomes

Someofthemainsubstantialconsequencesofthevoterelatetoeconomicandsocialpoliciesaswellastoimmigrationandintegration.However,theexpansionofdirectdemocracymightbeanotherimportantpoliticalconsequence.Whilethepreciseagendawillheavilydepend,ofcourse,onthefuturegovernmentcoalition,therearesomeindicationsonthelikelytrajectory.

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LeadingFPÖpoliticianshaveemphasisedthestrengtheningofdirectdemocraticinstrumentsasaconditionfortheirgovernmentparticipation.Asarolemodel,theypointtotheSwisspoliticalsystem,similartosomeothercontemporaryradicalrightparties.Toanequalorlesserextent,manyotherpartiesandcivilsocietygroups,withtheSocialDemocratsperhapsbeingleastenthusiastic,haverecentlysupportedanexpansionofdirectdemocracyinAustria.Despitetheimportantimplicationsofsuchpledges,however,journalistsandpunditsinAustriahavehardlydebatedthem.

Inmattersofimmigration,notonlytheÖVPandFPÖ,butalsotheSPÖleadership,agreethat“theMediterraneanroutehastobeclosednow”–ademandassociatedwithKurz.Thesestancesarenottoodifferentfromsomeother,rhetoricallymoreliberalWesternEuropeangovernments.Onintegration,certainpolicyproposalsoftheÖVPandtheFPÖrepresenttextbookcasesof“welfarechauvinism”:Bothsupportthereductionofminimumsocialtransferstorecognisedasylumseekers,forexample.Whilewelfarechauvinismisoftenunderstood,ormisunderstood,ascorrespondingtoaneconomicleft-wingturnofradicalrightparties,theFPÖpresentedaparticularlyneoliberaleconomicmanifestoforthisyear’selection.

ThelattercorrespondstoÖVPtaste,too.Thepartycampaignedforasubstantialreductioningovernmentspending.InKurz’squesttomakeAustriamore“competitive”,aninitiativeofhisforeignministryhaspromoted,ironically,thepoliciesofSchröder’sRed-GreencoalitioninGermany,suchaslabourmarketliberalisationandcorporatetaxcuts,as“ideasofsuccess”.Underemphasisedinthepublicdebate,economicpoliciesinAustriawillshifttotheright,especiallyiftheSPÖdoesnotentergovernment.BeyondAustria,anewÖVP-ledgovernmentwouldposeyetanotherdifficultyforreformingtheEurozone–however,theinfluenceofanAustriangovernmentonthisissuewillbeminor,atmost.

Nevertheless,manyobserverswillhaveakeeneyeonthedevelopmentofAustrianpoliticsoverthecomingyears.Futuredevelopmentswillindicatetowhatextentaright-wingcoalitionmaytransformpoliticalsystemsinWesternEurope–andwhatresponsesleft-wingplayersmayoffer.

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Note:Thisarticlegivestheviewsoftheauthors,notthepositionofEUROPP–EuropeanPoliticsandPolicyortheLondonSchoolofEconomics.Featuredimagecredit:KevinPoh(CCBY2.0)

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Abouttheauthors

ManèsWeisskircher–TUDresden(MIDEM–MercatorForumMigrationandDemocracy)andEuropeanUniversityInstituteManèsWeisskircherisaresearcherattheTUDresden(MIDEM–MercatorForumMigrationandDemocracy)andattheEuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorencewhoisinterestedincomparativepoliticsandpoliticalsociology.Hetweets@ManesWeissk.

MatthewE.Bergman–UniversityofCaliforniaatSanDiegoMatthewE.BergmanisalectureratUniversityofCaliforniaatSanDiego.Hisresearchandteachingexpertiseliesincomparativepoliticsandpoliticaleconomy,focusingonEurope.

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