australian economics weekly 120330

8/2/2019 Australian Economics Weekly 120330

1/17

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS WEEKLY

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS

ANZ RESEARCH

30 MARCH 2012

INSIDE

Economic Update 1

The Week Ahead 1 In Focus 2

Weekly Data Wrap 5Data previews 6

Data Calendar 9Forecasts 1 5

CONTRIBUTORS

Warren Hogan

Chief Econom ist+61 2 9227 [email protected]

I van Co lhounHead of Aust ra l ianEconom ics and Proper ty

Research+61 2 9227 1780

[email protected]

Jul ie TothSenior Econom ist

+61 3 9273 6252Julie [email protected]

Craig Michaels

Senior Econom ist+61 3 9273 1112

[email protected]

Just in FaboSenior Econom ist

+61 2 9227 [email protected]

Chere l le Murp hy

Senior Econom ist


David CanningtonEconomist


Andrew McManus

Economist+61 2 9227 1742

[email protected]

Dylan Eades

Economist+61 3 9273 2708

[email protected]

Savi ta S ingh

[email protected]

David XuAnalyst


AN A PRI L RBA RATE CUT I S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTI ON

Governm en t pos i t i on i ng ahead o f t he May fede ra l budge t w e l l and t r u l y beganth i s w eek , w i th T reasure r W ayne Sw an w arn i ng o f t ough f i s ca l cond i t i ons in a

speech to the Australian Business Economists.Treasurer Swan said revenues were lower

than expected in Novembers mid-year budget review, due largely to lower company tax

revenue. A sustained recovery in global growth was also not likely to lead to a similar

recovery in revenue growth, he said, in large part because the huge level of mining

investment underway is increasing depreciation deductions for mining companies. Bu t

t h e g o v e r n m e n t r e m a i n s f ir m l y c o m m i t t e d t o a s u r p l u s i n 2 0 1 2 1 3 , a r g u i n g

tha t a su rp l us i s econom ical l y imper a t i ve in an economy expected to grow around

trend, with low unemployment and a massive investment pipeline. It also sends a

strong message of confidence to investors across the world in uncertain times. The

Treasurer signalled further substantial savings in the May budget in order to achieve a

surplus, including through cutting and cancelling existing programs.

Otherw i se, i t was a re l a t i ve ly qu i e t w eek, with no major data released. Privatesector credit data was slightly stronger at +0.4% m/m in February. This reflected higher

growth in business, housing and personal credit, which were supported by greater

stability in global financial markets and recent RBA rate cuts. ABS job vacancies rose

0.7% q/q in the February quarter, following a fall of 3.4% q/q in the November quarter,

while in trend terms the series continues to weaken following its peak in early 2011. The

RBA also published its bi-annual Financial Stabilit y Review, which showed that household

financial stress measures remain low and that mortgage arrears rates, while still higher

than a few years ago, continue to fall.

I n o ur I n Focus ar t i c l e th i s week , we a rgue th a t t he p robab i l i t y o f an RBA ra tecu t i n Ap r i l i s h i ghe r th an cu r ren t l y p r i ced by the m arke t . Recent communications

from the RBA suggest the economy is not growing as quickly as it expected three to six

months ago. It also appears less certain that the strength in the resources sector will be

enough to fully outweigh weakness in sectors under pressure from the high AUD and

soft demand. Given the evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are more confident of our

forecast for a 25bp cut by the May board meeting.

THE TWO W EEKS AHEAD

In Aust ra l ia, the key event next week will be the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday. Dataon building approvals (ANZ: 1.1% m/m; market: 0.5% m/m), retail trade (ANZ: 0.3%

m/m; market: 0.2% m/m) and the trade balance (ANZ: AUD1.3bn; market: AUD1.1bn)

will be released. After the Easter break, ANZ job ads and the NAB business survey are due,

as well as employment data (ANZ: +5k; market: not yet avail.). In New Zealand , the

Fonterra global dairy auction will be the key economic event.

In China, following the manufacturing PMI data (ANZ: 51.2; market: 50.6) over theweekend, trade, industrial production and GDP data will be released after Easter.

In Europe , euro-zone finance ministers are due to meet tonight. Next week, the ECB andBoE decide on monetary policy. Manufacturing PMI and, the following week, industrial

production data are also due.

In the Uni ted States, ISM manufacturing and non-farm payrolls data will be key nextweek. We receive the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, and there are a host of Fed

speakers over the coming fortnight.

* * * PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE WI LL BE NO AUSTRALI AN ECONOMI CS W EEKLY

PUBLI SHED NEXT W EEK DUE TO THE EASTER HOLI DAY* * *


2/17

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 2 of 17

IN FOCUS

CAN THE AUSTRALI AN ECONOMY AFFORD TO GROW MORE

QUI CKLY? MI GHT THE RESERVE BAN K REDUCE I NTEREST RATES I N

APRI L?

Recent communications by the Reserve Bank suggest the market is under-estimating

the chances of a reduction in the official cash at next weeks RBA Board meeting (see

Figure 1), notwithstanding the recent increase in pricing by the market. The Minutes for

March, together with a recent speech by the Governor contain subtle but important

evolutions in the Banks thinking. This raises our confidence in ANZs forecast of a rate

cut by May and suggests a move at the April meeting next week cannot be ruled out.

FI GURE 1. MARKET PRI CI NG AS OF 30 MARCH 2 01 2

M o n t h l y

change

( b p s )

Cumu la t i ve

change

( b p s )

Expected

cash r a te

Apr-12 -0.10 -0.10 4.15

May-12 -0.13 -0.23 4.02

Jun-12 -0.13 -0.36 3.88

Jul-12 -0.11 -0.48 3.77

Aug-12 -0.08 -0.56 3.69

Sep-12 -0.06 -0.62 3.63

Oct-12 -0.03 -0.65 3.60

Nov-12 -0.03 -0.68 3.57

Dec-12 -0.05 -0.73 3.52

Jan-13 -0.01 -0.74 3.51

Feb-13 -0.02 -0.76 3.49Mar-13 0.00 -0.76 3.49

Apr-13 0.00 -0.76 3.49 Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg

The RBA March Board Meeting Minutes noted:

Retail sales growth had softened since mid-2011, with notab le weakness in partsof the industry, including department stores and retailers of household goods (this

is the most shrill the RBA has sounded on retail sector weakness);

Labour market outcomes reflected the opposing cross-currents in the Australianeconomy with little net employment growth in the economy (we would contend

that little employment growth is a poor policy outcome in the middle of the largest

mining boom in living memory); and

The housing market remained soft.Each of the above statements hints at an evolving view that the dom est ic economy

is not per form ing as the RBA env isaged 3-6 mon ths ago . In the final section

headed Considerations for monetary policy the Minutes report:

A key question was whether the necessary adjustment was occurring at an overallpace of growth that kept the economy close to trend and inflation close to target.;

and

Members were also alert to the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response ofthe domestic economy to the disparate forces at work, including the very large rise

in resources investment and the high exchange rate.

In a speech that post-dated the last RBA Board meeting, the RBA Governor said:

On the other hand, recent national accounts data suggest growth in the non-farmeconomy somewhat below trend over 2011.; and

I van Co lhounHead of Aust ra l ian

Economics and Proper tyResearch+61 32 9227 1780

[email protected]


3/17


IN FOCUS

Overall, recent economic performance in Australia is not too bad, particularlywhen compared, over a run of years, to a number of other advanced economies.

But neither is it so good that it cannot be improved. The full range of policies

macroeconomic and structural need to play their part in seeking that

improvement.

These comments provide the first public take on the RBAs views of the December

quarter national accounts and the performance of the economy in recent months.

Again, they suggest that t he Aus t ra l ian econom y is per for min g less st r ong ly

than t he RBA was prev ious ly expec t ing , notwithstanding the fact that the mining

investment boom continues apace.

Taken together, it appears that the RBA is evolving towards a view that, f o r dom est i c

reasons, the Australian economy could probably afford to grow a little faster withoutgenerating significant inflation. The rate reductions late last year were delivered

primarily on account of global concerns. While the likelihood of a disastrous global

growth outcome has reduced in recent months, the expectation remains that global

growth will be slightly sub trend this year.

The conventional market thinking is that the Bank will wait to see the March quarter

CPI in late April before considering any further policy easing in early May. However, a

long period of watching the RBA suggests that once the Bank b e l ieves there i s a

case for a change in m onetary po l i cy , it r are ly de lays i ts dec is ion. Our reading

of the recent communications suggests the Bank is evolving in the direction of making

the case for a rate change.

In conclusion, the current evolution of the domestic data suggests that an ear l ie r -

than- expec ted in teres t ra te cut by the RBA at nex t w eek s Apr i l Board

meet in g i s s t i l l a greater r i sk than curr ent l y pr i ced by the market . In light of the

evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are also more confident than before of our forecast

of a 25bp cut by the May board meeting (see Figure 2).

FI GURE 2. RBA CASH RATE: AN Z FORECASTS VS MARKET PRI CI NG

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

%

RBA Cash Rate ANZ Forecast Current Cash Rate Futures Cash Rate Futures (Nov-11)

average since 1995

Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg, RBA


4/17


DATA WRAP

AUSTRALI A DATA WRAP

ABS job vacancies increased 0.7% q/q in February quarter, but the trend remainedweak. This is in contrast with other leading indicators for employment, such as the ANZ

Job Advertisement series, which showed signs of improvement in January and February.

Not surprisingly ABS job vacancies were the highest in the states of Western Australia

and Queensland (as a percentage of the labour force).

HI A new p r i va te home sa les for February increased by 3.0% m/m, but did not fullyreverse the previous months 7.3% fall.

RBA pr ivate sec tor c red i t increased by 0.4% m/m in February, following a reading of0.2% m/m in January, and appears to reflect improved confidence following some

calming in European financial markets and the 50bp easing by the RBA in late 2011. The

year on year trend, however, is unchanged at 2.5%.

ABS m igrat ion data was weak, with net overseas migration increasing by just 2k to172k in Q3 2011.

Savi ta S inghAnalyst

[email protected]


5/17


DATA PREVIEW

BUI LDI NG APPROVALS

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

annual%c

hange

February forecast

2 APR: BUI LDI NG APPROVALS (FEB)

AN Z: + 1 .1 % m / m , -4 .8 % y / yM ar k et : + 0 .5 % m / m

La st : 0.9 % m / m , -1 4 .6 % y / y

Building approvals are expected to post a moderate increase

in February with divergent performances across States and

Territories. Despite rental yields showing improvement and

the November and December RBA rate cuts, weak developer

sentiment will continue to weigh on monthly growth in

building approvals. Over the next few months however, the

prospect for another rate cut, continuing soft house sales and

moderate negative growth in house prices is expected to

continue to dampen developer sentiment and building

approvals.

(DX)

RETAI L SALES

0

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

a

nnual%c

hange

February Forecast

3 APR: RETAI L SALES ( FEB)

AN Z: + 0 .3 % m / m , + 2 .2 % y / y

M ar k et : + 0 .2 % m / m

Last : 0.5 % m / m , + 2 .7 % y / y

The broadly flat trend in nominal retail sales has been largely

due to price deflation, particularly in food and household

goods in recent months.

Meanwhile, the trends of a somewhat cautious consumer

as seen in slow credit growth and leakage to non-retail

consumption would suggest ongoing softness in retail sales in

coming months. However, anecdotes from our latest

marketing rounds point towards a slight improvement from

very low levels recently. Confidence from rising equity

markets and the 50bps of monetary policy easing late last

year should see a modest rise in the trend of retail sales.

(AM)

RBA CASH RATE

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

%

April Forecast

3 APR: RBA CASH RATE (A PR)

ANZ: 4 .25%

Marke t : 4 .25%

Last : 4 .25%

See the In Focusarticle above for more detail.


6/17


DATA PREVIEW

TRADE BALANCE

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

A$Bn

February Forecast

4 APR: TRADE BALANCE (FEB)

ANZ: + 1 .3BnM ar k et : + 1 . 1Bn % m / m

Last : -0 .673Bn

There were a number of one-off factors that weighed on the

January trade balance. A reversal of some of these factors

will likely see a trade surplus similar to that of December

2011. A return of iron ore exports is expected after the

cyclone disrupted January (although cyclones look to have

also disrupted March exports). Meanwhile, coal exports will

slowly return following the Chinese Luna New Year. As a

result, exports are expected to rise 4.5% m/m in February.

Meanwhile, preliminary ABS data point towards a 4% m/m

fall in imports during February. This fall largely reflects

monthly volatility after solid rises in capital goods exports(ex-civil aircraft) and consumption goods in January.

(AM)

HOUSI NG FI NANCE

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

%m

/m

February forecast

11 APR: HOUSI NG FI NANCE ( FEB)

AN Z: - 3.4 % m / m , + 1 0 .4 % y / y

Marke t : no t ye t ava i l ab l e

La st : -1 .2 % m / m , + 1 0 .1 % y / y

The number of housing finance commitments is expected to

post a decrease in February as soft house prices, weak buyer

sentiment and weak employment growth weigh on housing

finance activity. This is despite the lagged positive impact of

the November and December 2011 RBA rate cuts. Looking

further into 2012, greater stability in house prices and

financial markets, steady growth in the global economy and

improved housing affordability are expected to support

moderate growth in housing finance.

(DC)

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ( MAR)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan-

07

Jul-

07

Jan-

08

Jul-

08

Jan-

09

Jul-

09

Jan-

10

Jul-

10

Jan-

11

Jul-

11

Jan-

12

Jul-

12

seas. adj. growth trend growth

Monthlyemploymentchange(000's) March forecast

12 APR: LABOUR FORCE ( MAR)

Employmen t :

ANZ: + 5 .0K


Last : -15 .4KU n em p l o y m e n t r a t e :

ANZ: 5 .3%


Las t : 5 .2%

Par t i c i pa t i on r a te :

ANZ: 65.2%


Las t : 65.2%

Employment growth has been volatile in recent months. This

is typical during periods of very low trend employment

growth, such as we are seeing currently. Although there has

been a slight improvement, underlying trend employmentgrowth was just 1.1k (0.1%y/y) in February. For March, a

small increase in seasonally adjusted jobs growth is likely,


7/17


DATA PREVIEW

UNEMPLOYMENT AND PARTI CI PATI ON RATES ( MAR)

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

65.0

65.2

65.4

65.6

65.8

66.0

unemployment rate (LHS) participation rate, inverse (RHS)

%

March forecasts

%

after a third of Januarys solid gain was wiped off in

February. Trend employment growth is likely to continue to

rise very slowly. Job advertisements, industry employment

indexes and other forward indicators of labour demand look

stable, albeit at weak levels outside the boom state of WA.

Statistically, March is a strong month of the year for labour

demand, relative to other months. This means the original

data will be pushed down by the seasonal adjustment

factor. A weakly positive number therefore seems the most

likely outcome this month, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Current conditions and labour market sentiment (with media

headlines about redundancies and job losses appearing

frequently in the eastern states) mean the participation rate

is likely to remain depressed after falling sharply in

December. If participation remains stable, then theunemployment rate may still move up a notch to 5.3%, even

with a mildly positive employment growth number. A

recovery in the participation rate seems unlikely this month,

but if it occurred, it could push the unemployment rate to

5.4% or higher. (JT)


8/17


DATA & EVENT CALENDAR

TWO W EEKS STARTI NG 2 APRI L

DATE COUNTRY DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST

31 Mar - 1 Apr EU 07:00 17:00

US 22:30 08:30

UK Lloyds Business Barometer MAR - - - - 1 23:01 09:01

Hometrack Housing Survey MoM MAR - - - - 0.0% 23:01 09:01

Hometrack Housing Survey YoY MAR - - - - -1.4% 23:01 09:01

CH PMI Manufacturing MAR 50.6 51.2 51 01:00 11:00

HSBC Manufacturing PMI MAR - - - - 49.6 02:30 12:30

US 08:30 18:30

2-Apr AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index MAR - - - - 51.3 23:30 09:30

Monday RPData-Rismark House PX Actual FEB - - - - 0.8% 00:00 10:00

TD Securities Inflation MoM MAR - - - - 0.1% 00:30 10:30

TD Securities Inflation YoY MAR - - - - 2.0% 00:30 10:30

Building Approvals MoM FEB 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 01:30 11:30

Building Approvals YoY FEB -5.3% -4.8% -14.6% 01:30 11:30

RBA Commodity Price Index Au MAR - - - - 98.1 06:30 16:30

RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY MAR - - - - 3.5% 06:30 16:30

JN Tankan Lge Manufacturers Index 1Q -1 - - -4 23:50 09:50

Tankan Non-Manufacturing 1Q 5 - - 4 23:50 09:50

Tankan Lge Mfg Outlook 1Q 2 - - -5 23:50 09:50

Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook 1Q 6 - - 0 23:50 09:50

Tankan Large All Indust Capex 1Q 0.8% - - 1.4% 23:50 09:50

Vehicle Sales YoY MAR - - - - 31.9% 05:00 15:00

EU PMI Manufacturing MAR F 47.7 - - 47.7 08:00 18:00

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate FEB 10.7% - - 10.7% 09:00 19:00

GE PMI Manufacturing MAR F 48.1 - - 48.1 07:55 17:55

UK BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal 4Q - - - - -8.6B 08:30 18:30

PMI Manufacturing MAR 50.8 - - 51.2 08:30 18:30

US 14:00 00:00

Construction Spending MoM FEB 0.8% - - -0.1% 14:00 00:00

ISM Manufacturing MAR 53.4 - - 52.4 14:00 00:00

ISM Prices Paid MAR 62.3 - - 61.5 14:00 00:00

16:35 02:35

CA 16:15 02:15

3-Apr NZ

Tuesday ANZ Commodity Price MAR - - - - 0.0% 00:00 10:00

AU Retail Sales sa MoM FEB 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 01:30 11:30

RBA CASH TARGET 3- Apr 4 .2 5 % 4 .2 5 % 4 .2 5 % 0 4 :3 0 1 4 :3 0

JN Monetary Base YoY MAR - - - - 11.3% 23:50 09:50

Labor Cash Earnings YoY FEB - - - - 0.0% 01:30 11:30

CH China Non-manufacturing PMI MAR - - - - 48.4 01:00 11:00

EU Euro-Zone PPI MoM FEB 0.5% - - 0.7% 09:00 19:00

Euro-Zone PPI YoY FEB 3.5% - - 3.7% 09:00 19:00

UK PMI Construction MAR 54 - - 54.3 08:30 18:30

BRC Shop Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 1.2% 23:01 09:01

US ISM New York MAR - - - - - - 13:45 23:45

Factory Orders FEB 1.4% - - -1.0% 14:00 00:00

Minutes of FOMC Meet ing 18:00 04:00

20:05 06:05

Total Vehicle Sales MAR 14.50M - - 15.03M 21:00 07:00

Domestic Vehicle Sales MAR 11.40M - - 11.70M 21:00 07:00

Fed's Wi l l i ams Speaks on Economy in San D iego (Voter )

EU-27 F inance Min is ters , Cent ra l Bank ers Meet in Denm ark

Fed 's Kocher lakot a Speaks in Evans ton , I l l i no is ( Voter )

Fed 's Bul lard Speaks at Ts inghua Univers i t y ( Non-vot er )

Fed 's Pianal to Speaks on Monetary Pol i cy in Mar ie t t a , Ohio (Voter )

Bank of Canada 's Carney Speaks in W ater loo, Ontar io

Fed 's Kocher lakota Speaks in Evans ton, I l l i no is (Non- voter )

Global Dairy Trade Auction


9/17




4-Apr AU AiG Performance of Service Index MAR - - - - 46.7 23:30 09:30

WednesdayTrade Balance FEB A$1.1bn A$1.3bn -673M 01:30 11:30

EU PMI Composite MAR F 48.8 - - 48.7 08:00 18:00

PMI Services MAR F 48.7 - - 48.7 08:00 18:00

Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM FEB -0.1% - - 0.3% 09:00 19:00

Euro-Zone Retail Sales YoY FEB - - - - 0.0% 09:00 19:00

ECB Announ ces In t eres t Rates 4-Apr 1.0% - - 1.0% 11:45 21:45

GE PMI Services MAR F 51.8 - - 51.8 07:55 17:55

Factory Orders YoY nsa FEB -5.7% - - -4.9% 10:00 20:00

Factory Orders MoM sa FEB 0.9% - - -2.7% 10:00 20:00

UK PMI Services MAR 53.5 - - 53.8 08:30 18:30

Official Reserves (Changes) MAR - - - - $746M 08:30 18:30

US MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Mar - - - - -2.7% 11:00 21:00

ADP Employment Change MAR 205K - - 216K 12:15 22:15

ISM Non-Manf. Composite MAR 56.7 - - 57.3 14:00 00:00

Fed's Wi l l i ams Speaks in San Franc isco ( Voter ) 15:00 01:00CA 15:55 01:55

5-Apr JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 30-Mar - - - - 349.5B 23:50 09:50

Thursday Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 30-Mar - - - - -150.6B 23:50 09:50

Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 30-Mar - - - - -1135.6B 23:50 09:50

Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 30-Mar - - - - -242.7B 23:50 09:50

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) MAR - - - - 9.15 02:00 12:00

CH China HSBC Services PMI MAR - - - - 53.9 02:30 12:30

GE Industrial Production MoM sa FEB -0.6% - - 1.6% 10:00 20:00

UK Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) FEB 0.0% - - 1.8% 10:00 20:00

New Car Registrations YoY MAR - - - - -2.5% 00:00 10:00

Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.4% - - -0.4% 08:30 18:30

Industrial Production YoY FEB -2.1% - - -3.8% 08:30 18:30

Manufacturing Production MoM FEB 0.1% - - 0.1% 08:30 18:30

Manufacturing Production YoY FEB 0.0% - - 0.3% 08:30 18:30

BOE Asset Purch ase Target APR 325B - - 325B 11:00 21:00BOE Announces Rates 5-Apr 0.5% - - 0.5% 11:00 21:00

NIESR GDP Estimate MAR - - - - 0.1% 14:00 00:00

US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY MAR - - - - 4.1% 00:00 10:00

Challenger Job Cuts YoY MAR - - - - 2.0% 11:30 21:30

RBC Consumer Outlook Index APR - - - - 47.5 12:00 22:00

Initial Jobless Claims 31-Mar - - - - 359K 12:30 22:30

Continuing Claims 24-Mar - - - - 3340K 12:30 22:30

13:10 23:10

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 1-Apr - - - - -34.7 13:45 23:45

CA Building Permits MoM FEB - - - - -12.3% 12:30 22:30

Unemployment Rate MAR 7.4% - - 7.4% 12:30 22:30

Participation Rate MAR - - - - 66.5 12:30 22:30

Net Change in Employment MAR 12.5K - - -2.8K 12:30 22:30

Full Time Employment Change MAR - - - - 9.1 12:30 22:30

Part Time Employment Change MAR - - - - -12 12:30 22:30Ivey Purchasing Managers Index sa MAR 67 - - 66.5 14:00 00:00

6-Apr AU AiG Perf of Construction Index MAR - - - - 35.6 23:30 09:30

Friday JN Coincident Index CI FEB P - - - - 92.7 05:00 15:00

Leading Index CI FEB P - - - - 94.4 05:00 15:00

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls MAR 210K - - 227K 12:30 22:30

Change in Private Payrolls MAR 223K - - 233K 12:30 22:30

Change in Manufact. Payrolls MAR 20K - - 31K 12:30 22:30

Unemployment Rate MAR 8.3% - - 8.3% 12:30 22:30

Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp MAR 0.2% - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30

Avg Hourly Earning YoY All Emp MAR 1.9% - - 1.9% 12:30 22:30

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees MAR 34.5 - - 34.5 12:30 22:30

Change in Household Employ MAR - - - - 428 12:30 22:30

Underemployment Rate (U6) MAR - - - - 14.9% 12:30 22:30

Consumer Credit FEB $12.000B - - $17.776B 19:00 05:00

AOFM Auc t ions A$700m of Ju ly 2017 Bonds

Bank of Canada 's Boiv in Speaks in Toronto

Fed 's Bul lard Speaks on Economy, Monet ary Pol i cy in S t . Lou is (Non-vo ter )


10/17




9-Apr JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current MAR - - - - 45.9 14:00 00:00

Monday Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook MAR - - - - 50.1 14:00 00:00Current Account Total FEB - - - - -437.3B 23:50 09:50

Adjusted Current Account Total FEB - - - - 115.6B 23:50 09:50

Current Account Balance YoY FEB - - - - -180.0% 23:50 09:50

Trade Balance - BOP Basis FEB - - - - -1381.6B 23:50 09:50

Bankruptcies YoY MAR - - - - 5.2% 04:30 14:30

CH Producer Price Index YoY MAR -0.3% - - 0.0% 01:30 11:30

Consumer Price Index YoY MAR 3.4% - - 3.2% 01:30 11:30

EU Sentix Investor Confidence APR - - - - -8.2 08:30 18:30

Lloyds Employment Confidence MAR - - - - -69 23:01 09:01

RICS House Price Balance MAR - - - - -13.0% 23:01 09:01

US 22:00 08:00

Business Outlook Future Sales 1Q - - - - -4 14:30 00:30

BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey 1Q - - - - -6.3 14:30 00:30

10-Apr AU NAB Business Conditions MAR - - - - 3 01:30 11:30

Tuesday NAB Business Confidence MAR - - - - 1 01:30 11:30ANZ Job Advertisements MoM MAR - - - - 3.3% 01:30 11:30

Foreign Reserves MAR - - - - A$49.1B 06:30 16:30

JN BOJ Target Rat e 10-Apr - - - - 0.1% 14:00 00:00

Machine Tool Orders YoY MAR P - - - - -8.6% 06:00 16:00

CH Trade Balance (USD) MAR -$6.20B - - -$31.48B 14:00 00:00

Exports YoY MAR 7.0% - - 18.4% 14:00 00:00

Imports YoY MAR 10.5% - - 39.6% 14:00 00:00

Exports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 16:00 02:00

Imports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 16:00 02:00

GE Exports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00

Imports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00

Current Account (EURO) FEB - - - - 8.0B 06:00 16:00

Trade Balance FEB - - - - 13.1B 06:00 16:00

UK DCLG UK House Prices YoY FEB - - - - 0.2% 08:30 18:30

BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY MAR - - - - -0.3% 23:01 09:01US NFIB Small Business Optimism MAR - - - - 94.3 11:30 21:30

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR - - - - 47.5 14:00 00:00

JOLTs Job Openings FEB - - - - 3459 14:00 00:00

Wholesale Inventories FEB - - - - 0.4% 14:00 00:00

16:45 02:45

18:30 04:30

11-Apr NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey 1Q - - - - 0 22:00 08:00

Wednesday AU

Westpac Consumer Confidence sa MoM APR - - - - -5.0% 00:30 10:30

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index APR - - - - 96.1 00:30 10:30

Home Loans MoM FEB - - -3.4% -1.2% 01:30 11:30

Building Approvals, disaggregated MAR - - - - - - 01:30 11:30

Investment Lending FEB - - - - -7.1% 01:30 11:30

Owner-Occupied Home Loan Value MoM FEB - - - - 0.1% 01:30 11:30JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY MAR - - - - 0.8% 23:50 09:50

Bank Lending incl Trusts YoY MAR - - - - - - 23:50 09:50

Machine Orders MoM FEB - - - - 3.4% 23:50 09:50

Machine Orders YoY FEB - - - - 5.7% 23:50 09:50

US

MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Apr - - - - - - 11:00 21:00

12:20 22:20

Import Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30

Import Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 5.5% 12:30 22:30

13:30 23:30

14:30 00:30

Fed's Beige Book 18:00 04:00

Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey 18:00 04:00

Monthly Budget Statement MAR - - - - - - 18:00 04:00

21:00 07:00CA Housing Starts MAR - - - - 201.1K 12:15 22:15

Fed's Lockhar t Gives Welcom e, Closing at Georgia Conferen ce (Voter)

Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Money Fund s at Georgia Conference

Fed 's Bu l la rd De l ive rs Open ing Remarks in St . Lou is (Non-vo t e r )

Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Stone Mountain, Georgia Conference (Voter)

Fed's Lockhar t Gives Welcome at Markets Conference in Georgia (Voter)

Fed ' s Kocher lako ta Speaks in N ico l le t , M inneso ta (Non-v o te r )

Fed ' s George to Speak a t M insky Con fe rence in New York (Non-v o te r )

RBA's El l is in Panel Discussion, At lan ta

US Treasury Auct ions 3-Year Notes

US Treasury Auct ions 10-Year Notes


11/17




12-Apr NZ Business NZ PMI MAR - - - - 57.7 22:30 08:30

Thursday NZ Card Spending - Retail MoM MAR - - - - -0.7% 22:45 08:45NZ Card Spending - Total MoM MAR - - - - -0.3% 22:45 08:45

QV House Prices YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 00:00 10:00

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index APR - - - - 110.2 01:00 11:00

ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM APR - - - - -2.7% 01:00 11:00

AU Consumer Inflation Expectation APR - - - - 2.7% 01:00 11:00

Part Time Employment Change MAR - - - - -15.4K 01:30 11:30

Full Time Employment Change MAR - - - - 0.0K 01:30 11:30

Employment Change MAR - - +5k -15.4K 01:30 11:30

Participation Rate MAR - - 65.2% 65.2% 01:30 11:30

Unemployment Rate MAR - - 5.3% 5.2% 01:30 11:30

JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 23:50 09:50

Japan Money Stock M3 YoY MAR - - - - 2.5% 23:50 09:50

Domestic CGPI MoM MAR - - - - 0.2% 23:50 09:50

Domestic CGPI YoY MAR - - - - 0.6% 23:50 09:50

EU ECB Publishes April Monthly Report 08:00 18:00Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda YoY FEB - - - - -1.5% 09:00 19:00

Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa MoM FEB - - - - 0.3% 09:00 19:00

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn FEB - - - - -7532 08:30 18:30

Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn FEB - - - - -3678 08:30 18:30

Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) FEB - - - - -1762 08:30 18:30

US Trade Balance FEB - - - - -$52.6B 12:30 22:30

Producer Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM MAR - - - - 0.2% 12:30 22:30

Producer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 3.3% 12:30 22:30

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY MAR - - - - 3.0% 12:30 22:30

Initial Jobless Claims 7-Apr - - - - - - 12:30 22:30

Continuing Claims 31-Mar - - - - - - 12:30 22:30

13:00 23:00

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Apr - - - - - - 13:45 23:45

14:00 00:0014:00 00:00

17:00 03:00

CA New Housing Price Index MoM FEB - - - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30

New Housing Price Index YoY FEB - - - - 2.4% 12:30 22:30

Int'l Merchandise Trade FEB - - - - 2.10B 12:30 22:30

13-Apr CH Industrial Production YTD YoY MAR - - - - 11.4% 02:00 12:00

Friday Industrial Production YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY MAR - - - - 21.5% 02:00 12:00

Real GDP YTD YoY 1Q - - - - 9.2% 02:00 12:00

Real GDP QoQ 1Q - - - - 2.0% 02:00 12:00

Real GDP YoY 1Q - - - - 8.9% 02:00 12:00

Retail Sales YTD YoY MAR - - - - 14.7% 02:00 12:00

Retail Sales YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00

GE Consumer Price Index MoM MAR F - - - - 0.3% 06:00 16:00Consumer Price Index YoY MAR F - - - - 2.1% 06:00 16:00

CPI - EU Harmonised MoM MAR F - - - - 0.4% 06:00 16:00

CPI - EU Harmonised YoY MAR F - - - - 2.3% 06:00 16:00

UK PPI Input Nsa MoM MAR - - - - 2.1% 08:30 18:30

PPI Input Nsa YoY MAR - - - - 7.3% 08:30 18:30

PPI Output n.sa MoM MAR - - - - 0.6% 08:30 18:30

PPI Output n.sa YoY MAR - - - - 4.1% 08:30 18:30

PPI Output Core Nsa MoM MAR - - - - 0.5% 08:30 18:30

PPI Output Core Nsa YoY MAR - - - - 3.0% 08:30 18:30

US Consumer Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM MAR - - - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30

Consumer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 12:30 22:30

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY MAR - - - - 2.2% 12:30 22:30

Consumer Price Index Nsa MAR - - - - 227.663 12:30 22:30

CPI Core Index sa MAR - - - - 227.907 12:30 22:30U. of Michigan Confidence APR P - - - - - - 13:55 23:55

15-Apr UK Rightmove House Prices MoM APR - - - - 1.6% 23:01 09:01

Rightmove House Prices YoY APR - - - - 2.2% 23:01 09:01

US Treasury Auc t ion s 30-Year Bonds

Fed's Kocher lakot a Speaks in Whi te Bear Lake, Minnesota (No n-vot er )

Fed 's Nel l ie L iang to Speak on Panel in New York (Non -vot er )

Fed 's Lockhar t t o Moderate Panel D iscuss ion in A t lant a (Voter )

N ew Y ork Fed ' s Cumm i ng t o S peak on P ane l i n N ew Y ork (N on-v o t e r )


12/17


FIVE WEEKS AT A GLANCE

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

2 APRILAU: Building Approvals(Feb)

JN: Tankan Survey (Q1),Vehicle Sales (Mar)

EU: PMI Manuf. (Mar F),Unemployment Rate

(Feb)GE: PMI Manuf. (Mar F)

UK: PMI Manuf. (Mar)US: ISM Manuf. (Mar),

Construction Spending(Feb), Feds Bul lard

and Pianal to Speak

3 APRILNZ: Global Dairy TradeAuction, ANZ Commodity

Price (Mar)AU: Retail Sales (Feb),

RBA Rates Decision CH: Non-manufacturing

PMI (Mar)EU: PPI (Feb)

UK: PMI Construction (Mar)US: Factory Orders (Feb),

FOMC Minu tes, FedsWi l l iams Speaks

4 APRILAU: Trade (Feb)EU: PMI (Mar F), Retail

Sales (Feb), ECB Rat esDecision

GE: PMI Services (Mar F);Factory Orders (Feb)

UK: PMI Services (Mar)US: ADP Employment

Change (Mar), ISM Non-Manuf. (Mar), FedsWi l l iams SpeaksCA: BoCs Boiv in Speaks

5 APRILCH: HSBC Services PMI(Mar)

GE: Ind. Prod. (Feb)UK: Ind. Prod. (Feb),

Manuf. Prod. (Feb), BO ERates Decision

US: Feds Bul lard SpeaksCA: Employment (Mar),

Building Permits (Feb),Ivey PMI (Mar)

6 APRILPubl ic Hol iday (AU,NZ, EU, UK, US, CA)

JN: Coincidence Index(Feb P)

US: Non-farm Payrolls(Mar), Unemployment

Rate (Mar), ConsumerCredit (Feb)

9 APRILPubl ic Hol iday (AU,

NZ, EU, UK, US, CA)JN: Current Account and

Trade (Feb)CH: PPI and CPI (Mar)

EU: Sentix InvestorConfidence (Apr)

US: Feds Bernank eSpeaks

10 APRILAU: ANZ Job Ads. (Mar),

NAB Business Conditionsand Confidence (Mar)

JN: BoJ Rates Decision CH: Trade Balance (Mar)

GE: Current Account (Feb),Trade Balance (Feb)

US: NFIB Small Bus.Optimism (Mar), Feds

Lockhar t , Ko rcher lako taSpeak

11 APRILAU: RBAs El l is in Panel

Discuss ion, WestpacConsumer Confidence

(Apr), Housing Finance(Feb)

US: Import Price Index(Mar), Monthly Budget

Statement (Mar), FedsBeige Book (Mar) , Feds

Lockhar t , George, andRosengren, and Bul lard

SpeakCA: Housing Starts (Mar)

12 APRILNZ: Business NZ PMI

(Mar), ANZ ConsumerConfidence (Apr), NZ Card

Spending (Mar)AU: Employment (Mar)

(Mar)JN: Domestic CGPI (Mar)

EU: Ind. Prod. (Feb), ECBPubl ishes Month ly

Repor tUK: Trade Balance (Feb)

US: Trade Balance (Mar),PPI (Mar), Feds Lockhar t ,

and Kocher lakot a SpeakCA: Merchandise Trade(Feb)

13 APRILCH: Ind. Prod. (Mar),

Real GDP (Q1), RetailSales (Mar)

GE: CPI (Mar F)UK: PPI (Mar)

US: CPI (Mar), Univ. ofMichigan Confidence (Apr

P)

16 APRILNZ: Performance of

Services (Mar), FoodPrices (Mar)

EU: Trade (Feb)US: Retail Sales (Mar),

Empire FedManufacturing (Apr),

Business Inventories

(Feb), NAHB Housing(Apr), Feds Bul lardSpeaks

17 APRILAU: RBA Minut es

JN: Ind. Prod (Feb),Consumer Confidence

(Mar)EU: CPI (Mar), ZEW (Apr)

GE: ZEW Survey (Apr)UK: CPI (Mar)

US: Housing Starts (Mar),

Building Permits (Mar),Ind. Prod. (Mar)CA: Manufacturing Sales

(Feb), BoC Rates

18 APRILAU: Westpac Leading

Index (Feb)EU: Current Account (Feb),

Construction Output (Feb)UK: BoE Minutes,

Unemployment (Feb),Jobless Claims Change

(Mar)

CA: BoC Monetar y Pol icyRepor t

19 APRILNZ: ANZ Job Ads (Mar),

CPI (Q1)JN: Trade (Mar)

EU: Consumer Confidence(Apr)

US: Philly FedManufacturing (Apr),

Existing Home Sales (Mar),

Leading Indicators (Mar)CA: BoCs Carney Speak s

20 APRILAU: International Trade

Prices (Q1)GE: PPI (Mar), IFO

Survey (Apr)UK: Retail Sales (Mar)

CA: CPI (Mar)G20 Finance Min is tersMee t ing i n Wash ing ton

23 APRILAU: PPI (Q1)JN: Coincident Index

(Feb), Leading Index CI(Feb)

EU: Euro-zoneGovernment Debt/GDP

Ratio

24 APRILNZ: Net Migration (Mar),Credit Card Spending (Mar)

AU: CPI (Q1)CH: Conference Board

China Leading EconomicIndex (Mar)

US: S&P/CaseShiller HomePrice Index (Feb),Consumer Confidence

(Apr), Richmond Fed (Apr),

New Home Sales (Mar)CA: Retail Sales (Feb)

25 APRILANZAC Day Publ icHol iday (AU)

UK: GDP (Q1 A), Index ofServices (Feb)

US: Cap & Durable GoodsOrders (Mar), FOMC Rat e

Decision , FedsBernanke Speaks

26 APRILNZ: RBNZ Off icial CashRate Decis ion

AU: DEWR Internet SkilledVacancies (Mar)

EU: Bus. Climate Indicator(Apr), Consumer

Confidence (Apr F)GE: CPI (Apr)US: Chicago Fed Nat

Activity Index (Mar),

Pending Home Sales (Mar),Kansas City Fed Manuf.

Activity (Apr)

27 APRILAU: HIA New Home Sales(Mar)

CH: Industrial Profits(Mar)

JN: National CPI (Mar),Jobless Rate (Mar), Ind

Prod. (Mar P), RetailTrade (Mar), BoJ Target

RateGE: GfK Consumer

Confidence Survey (May)US: Employment Cost

Index (Q1), GDP (Q1),Univ. of MichiganConfidence (Apr F)

30 APRILNZ: Building Permits

(Mar), Trade Balance(Mar), NBNZ Business

Confidence (Apr)

AU: Private Sector Credit(Mar)JN: Manuf. PMI (Apr)

US: PCE (Mar), Chicago

Purchasing Manager(Apr) Dallas Fed Manuf.Activity (Apr)

CA: GDP (Feb)

1 MAYAU: RBA Rates Decisio nGE: Unemployment (Apr)CH: PMI Manuf. (Apr),

HSBC PMI Manuf. (Apr)

UK: PMI Manuf. (Apr)US: ISM (Apr),Construction Spending

(Mar)

2 MAYNZ: ANZ Commodity Price

(Apr)EU: PMI Manuf. (Apr F),

Unemployment (Mar)

GE: Unemployment (Apr),PMI Manuf. (Apr F)UK: PMI Construction

(Apr), Mortgage Approvals

(Mar), Consumer Credit(Mar)US: ADP Employment

(Apr), Factory Orders(Mar)

3 MAYNZ: Employment (Q1)

CH: PMI Non-manuf. (Apr)EU: PPI (Mar), ECB Rat esDecision

UK: PMI Services (Apr)

4 MAYAU: RBA SOMP

EU: PMI (Apr F), RetailSales (Mar)

GE: PMI Services (Apr F)

US: Nonfarm Payrolls(Apr), Unemployment(Apr)

CA: Ivey PMI (Apr)


13/17


CENTRAL BANK RELEASES FOR 2012

JANUARY 2012 FEBRUARY 2012 MARCH 2012 APRIL 2012

12th ECB

12th BoE

17th BoC24th BoJ

25th BoJ Monthly Report

25th BoE Minutes25th FOMC

26th ECB

26th RBNZ

7th RBA

9th BoE

9th ECB14th BoJ


17th BoJ Minutes21st RBA Minutes

22nd BoE Minutes

23rd ECB

6th RBA

8th BoC

8th ECB8th BoE

8th RBNZ MP Statement

13th BoJ13th FOMC


16th BoJ Minutes20th RBA Minutes

21st BoE Minutes

22nd ECB

3rd RBA

4th ECB

9th BoE9th BoJ

10th BoJ

11th BoJ Monthly Report13th BoJ Minutes

17th RBA Minutes

17th BoC18th BoE Minutes

19th ECB

25th FOMC26th RBNZ

27th BoJ

MAY 2012 JUNE 2012 JULY 2012 AUGUST 2012

1st RBA3rd ECB

7th BoJ Minutes

10th BoE15th RBA Minutes

16th ECB

23rd BoJ24th BoJ Monthly Report

25th BoE Minutes

28th BoJ Minutes

5th RBA5th BoC

7th BoE

6th ECB14th RBNZ MP Statement

15th BoJ

18th BoJ Monthly Report19th RBA Minutes

20th BoJ Minutes

20th FOMC20th BoE Minutes

21st ECB

3rd RBA5th ECB

5th BoE

12th BoJ13th BoJ Monthly Report

17th BoC

17th RBA Minutes18th BoJ Minutes

19th ECB

26th RBNZ28th BoE Minutes

31st FOMC

2nd BoE2nd ECB

7th RBA

9th BoJ10th BoJ Monthly Report

14th BoJ Minutes

18th BoE Minutes21st RBA Minutes

SEPTEMBER 2012 OCTOBER 2012 NOVEMBER 2012 DECEMBER 2012

4th RBA

5th BoC6th BoE

6th ECB

12th FOMC13th RBNZ MP Statement

18th RBA Minutes

19th BoJ

19th BoE Minutes20th BoJ Monthly Report

20th ECB24th BoJ Minutes

2nd RBA

4th BoE4th ECB

5th BoJ

9th BoJ Monthly Report11th BoJ Minutes

16th RBA Minutes

17th BoE Minutes

18th ECB23rd BoC

24th FOMC25th RBNZ

30th BoJ

2nd BoJ Minutes

6th RBA8th ECB

8th BoE

20th RBA Minutes20th BoJ

21st BoJ Monthly Report

21st BoE Minutes

22nd ECB26th BoJ Minutes

4th RBA

4th BoC6th ECB

6th BoE

6th RBNZ MP Statement11th FOMC

19th BoE Minutes

20th ECB

20th RBA Minutes20th BoJ

21st BoJ Monthly Report26th BoJ Minutes

Notes : Entries are the dates of central bank interest rate announcements, unless specified as minutes or otherwise. Dates

are indicative only and are subject to change by central bank authorities.

Key: BoC: Bank of Canada; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan; ECB: European Central Bank; FOMC: Federal Open

Market Committee; RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia; RBNZ: Reserve Bank of New Zealand; SNB: Swiss National Bank.

Sources: Central bank websites.


14/17


FORECASTS

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

Economic act i v i t y ( annua l % change)

Private final demand 2.0 5.6 6.2 6.3

Household consumption 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.3

Dwelling investment 4.1 1.1 -5.5 6.1

Business investment -1.3 16.9 20.7 15.3

Public demand 8.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.1

Domestic final demand 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.0

Inventories (contribution to GDP growth) 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.0

Gross National Expenditure (GNE) 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.0

Exports 5.8 -1.6 9.6 9.9

Imports 14.1 11.6 13.5 14.8

Net Exports (contribution to GDP growth) -1.5 -2.7 -1.3 -1.7

Gross Dom est ic Produc t ( GDP) 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.1Pr i ces and w ages (annu a l % change)

Inflation*: Headline CPI 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.4

Underlying (RBA core)^ 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.4

Wages: 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.9

Labour marke t

Employment (annual % change) 2.7 1.7 1.1 2.5

Unemployment rate (annual average %) 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.0

Ext erna l sec tor

Terms of trade (annual % change) 16.4 13.3 -7.0 -1.5

Current account balance: AUD bn -38.5 -32.0 -70.0 -95.7

% of GDP -2.8 -2.2 -4.7 -6.1* Includes carbon tax. Average of RBA trimmed mean and weighted statistical measures

AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F

RBA cash rate 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

90 day bill 4.34 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15

3 year bond 3.47 3.20 3.40 3.40 3.30 3.30

10 year bond 3.97 3.80 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.80

3s10s yield curve 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50

3 year swap 4.02 3.80 3.90 3.85 3.75 3.70

10 year swap 4.75 4.60 4.70 4.50 4.35 4.35

INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F

RBNZ cash rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.25 3.50

NZ 90 day bill 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.17 3.67 3.75

US Fed funds note 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

US 2 year note 0.34 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.30

US 10 year note 2.16 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.20

Japan call rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

ECB refinance rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

UK repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50


15/17


FORECASTS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F

Aus t ra l i an exchange ra tesAUD/USD 1.04 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10

NZD/USD 0.82 0.85 0.86 0.89 0.90 0.90

AUD/ 85.3 81.6 82.5 79.2 77.0 77.0

AUD/ 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

AUD/ 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67

AUD/NZD 1.27 1.25 1.28 1.24 1.22 1.22

AUD/CAD 1.03 1.05 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18

AUD/CHF 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14

AUD/CNY 6.54 6.60 6.81 6.74 6.71 6.69

AUD Trade weighted index 76.9 76.9 79.0 78.1 77.6 77.3

I n te rna t i ona l cross ra tes

USD/ 82.2 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 70.0

/USD 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37

/ 109 104 103 99 96 96

/USD 1.60 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.63

/ 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84

USD/CAD 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07

USD/CHF 0.91 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04

USD index 79.0 77.8 77.0 76.7 76.6 76.8

Asia exchange ra t es

USD/CNY 6.31 6.23 6.19 6.13 6.10 6.08USD/HKD 7.76 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80

USD/IDR 9183 8800 8750 8700 8650 8600

USD/INR 51.4 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.2

USD/KRW 1136 1080 1070 1065 1060 1050

USD/MYR 3.07 3.00 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.97

USD/PHP 43.0 42.6 42.5 41.7 41.9 40.1

USD/SGD 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21

USD/THB 30.89 30.40 30.20 30.00 30.00 29.80

USD/TWD 29.56 28.80 28.70 28.70 28.70 28.50

USD/VND 20825 21400 21600 21800 21800 22000

Paci f i c exchange ra t es

PGK/USD 0.487 0.513 0.528 0.536 0.547 0.563

FJD/USD0.562 0.583 0.584 0.589 0.591 0.591


16/17


IMPORTANT NOTICE

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about and observe all relevant restrictions.

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of contact. If trading strategies or recommendations are included in this document, they are solely for the information of wholesale clients(as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 Cth). Persons who receive this document must inform themselves about and observe

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