aurel schubert director-general statistics, ecb escb statistics and its main challenges ahead joint...

Aurel SchubertDirector-General Statistics, ECB ESCB statistics and

its main challenges ahead

Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on StatisticsSkopje, 4 October 2013

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* The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the ECB. 2

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Production of ESCB Statistics

Main challenges ahead

Increased policy relevance of statistics

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Challenges in European statistics production+

Improving communication of statistics +

Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs+

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ESCB statistics are vital for:

•ECB’s monetary policy

•Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems oversight, …)

•Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)

•Statistical support to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)


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• The EU reforms following the crisis

• Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools) and to enforce policy compliance

Financial supervisorypolicies

Fiscalpolicies

Macro-economicpolicies

ESCB statistics are also key to EU policy-makers’ decisions

ESCB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps

ESCB statistics are also a public good


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www.ecb.europa.eu ©5

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The ESCB’s own produced European statistics

The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics)

… and also data from commercial data providers

Evidence-based decision making is supported by

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Main focus on euro area statistics, but also on national contributions, which need to be harmonised and comparable• to compile homogenous euro area aggregates which in

many cases are not the simple sum of national statistics• to ensure cross-country comparability and to assess

economic convergence

Conforming to international standards wherever possible

European and international cooperation is essential (in particular with Eurostat, BIS, IMF, OECD, UN)

• active and influential ECB role on on-going developments (to limit subsequent efforts)

Main features of ESCB statistics

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ECB statistical competences laid down in ECB Statute annexed to the EU Treaty

ECB legal acts (Regulations and Guidelines) address a wide range of statistics

ECB and the NCBs work as a team through the ESCB Statistics Committee (STC)

• Develops new statistics and statistical methods and prepares legal acts for adoption by the ECB Governing Council

• Essential role of National Central Banks, which collect (national) data on the basis of ECB legal acts and submit harmonised datasets to the ECB

• ECB checks data quality, aggregates and consolidates for the euro area

Encompassing quality architecture• Public Commitment for European Statistics• ECB Statistics Quality Framework• Quality reporting

Main features of ESCB statistics

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Article 338 TFEU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Treaty of the EU

European Statistical SystemRegulation 223/09

ECB collecting statisticsRegulation 2533/98

EP and Council Regulationsaddressed to Member States

ECB Regulationsaddressed to reporting agents

ECB Guidelines

NCBs

Eurosystem

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Short-term Statistics

HICP

ESA 95 transmission programme

Investment Funds

…Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds

BOP

MUFA

GFSMFI

Balance sheet

Interest rates

Financial Vehicle Corporations

Legal framework for European statistics

Securities Holdings

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Responsibility• General economic statistics

• All non-economic statistics

Responsibility• Monetary and financial statistics

• Quarterly financial accounts

• International reserves

• Financial stability statistics

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics

Shared responsibility•B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics

•European accounts by sector

•Statistical infrastructure

Statistical cooperation in the EU

European System of

Central Banks (ESCB)/Eurosyst

emm

European Statistical System (ESS)

EU National Central Banks ECB

EU National Statistical Institutes

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+ new: European Statistical Forum

Eurosystem

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Statistical cooperation in the ESCB

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ESCB Statistics

Committee (STC)

WG on Euro Area Accounts

WG on External Statistics

WG on General

Economic Statistics

WG on Government

Finance Statistics

WG on Monetary

and Financial Statistics

WG on Securities Statistics

WG on Statistical

Information Management

Ad-hoc Task

Forces

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Challenges in European statistics production

More detailed data

•Country data

•Micro-databases

•Distributional data

• Reporting burden

• Confidentiality

• Compiler’s resources

Increasingdemands

Facingconstraints

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New statistics on • Investment funds (2009)

• Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation (2011)

• Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds (2011)

• Consolidated banking data

Development micro-datasets• Centralised Securities Database

• Securities Holding Statistics

• Credit and Credit risk dataset

• Register of Financial Institutions

• Household and corporate surveys

Better macro-ec. statistics• Further development euro area

accounts

• Implementation new manuals (SNA2010-ESA2010, BPM6)

Other datasets•BIS banking statistics

•Financial markets statistics

•Ad-hoc surveys

The ECB response

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New statistics- better information on all financial sectors

Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics

• New statistics on assets and liabilities euro area Investment Funds

Investment Funds

• Regular compilation statistics euro area Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation transactions and MFI securitisation

Financial Vehicle Corporations

• New statistics euro area Insurance Corporations & Pension Funds Insurance

Corporations & Pension Funds

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Breakdowns

• Providing more breakdowns of banks’ balance sheet, e.g. loans by NACE, and interest rates

Credit lines

• New data on credit lines granted by banks

Compilation

• Compilation harmonised financial statistics on a consolidated basis

Alignment

• Working with supervisors in a better alignment of supervisory and statistical concepts and data

• Further advancing timeliness

Timeliness

New statistics - better information on all financial sectors

Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics

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1. Financial markets statistics

2. Probability density functions

3. Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics

4. Short Term European Paper market statistics

5. Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations, households, or credit institutions

1. Financial markets statistics

2. Probability density functions

3. Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics

4. Short Term European Paper market statistics

5. Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations, households, or credit institutions

Other monetary / financial statistics in demand

New statistics - Better information on financial markets

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Register of Financial institutions and groups composition1Consolidated Banking Data/National Banking Indicators 2

Granular Credit and Credit Risk Dataset3Sectorial/individual Issuance and Holdings of Securities4

SME Corporate finance6

Statistics and Micro-databases

Households finance and consumption survey5

Developments of micro-datasets

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Other datasets

Other datasets

• BIS banking statistics (consolidated and locational by nationality)

• Banks’ disclosures • Commercial data from

Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc.

• BIS banking statistics (consolidated and locational by nationality)

• Banks’ disclosures • Commercial data from

Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc.

Ad-hoc surveys

• Occur for specific issues

• Tailored to latest developments in financial sector

• Especially while EU Supervisory frameworks are still in the making

• Occur for specific issues

• Tailored to latest developments in financial sector

• Especially while EU Supervisory frameworks are still in the making

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1. Enhancing integrated quarterly financial and non-financial accounts euro area:

• Advance timeliness• Improve consistency• Enhance completeness, coverage and length

2. Consolidated lending exposures credit institutions vis-à-vis counterparts

3. Implementation of new international statistical standards (SNA2008-ESA2010, BPM6)

Enhancements to macroeconomic statistics

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Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs*

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Elements of the Single Supervisory Mechanism

• ECB is the competent supervisory authority for all banks in the euro area in close cooperation with SSM members

• Non-euro area countries can – voluntarily – join the SSM

• ECB to conduct direct supervision of ca. 130-140 banking groups (“significant banks”), representing around 80% of the banking sectors’ total assets in the euro area

• The other, “less significant” banks will be directly supervised locally

• Balance sheet review before the ECB takes over the SSM (conducted together with national supervisory authorities)

• Need for a financial backstop (national budgets and where needed the ESM)

• Accurate, timely and high quality data will be key for the performance of these tasks

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Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs

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SSM Data requirements

EBA’s ITS and Pillar 2 data

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2 MFI Statistics

Central Credit Registers

Ad-hoc data collections

Other national data

Financial markets data


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SSM data framework: preparatory work

• Further work on the SUBA project

• Security Holdings Statistics (SHS)

• Assessment of individual MFI data (balance sheet and interest rates) for supervisory use

• Proof of ability of RIAD to meet mapping requirements

• Financial Market Statistics

Work in progress Next planned steps ahead

• Pilot supervisory data

• Supervisory Banking (SUBA) Data System

• Preparing an ECB decision for the transmission of central credit registers (CCR) data in the short run

• Preparation of the project long-run solution for AnaCredit dataset

• Register of institutions (RIAD)


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Improving communication of statistics *

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Fostering cooperation and information-sharing, transparency in methodology

Communicating statistics to professional users, policy makers and the general public

Communication of central bank statistics is an important aspect of accountability and credibility (“evidence based policy making”) and for building trust

• Reporting agents as well as the public at large need to understand, use, re-use the results of data collections

• Statistics (financial sector) is a core product of central banking

Improving communication of statistics

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Content:45 indicators and 6 risk typologies

•Allows synthetic view of the situation for deeper analysis

•Cannot replace expert judgement, but complements it •See: www.esrb.europa.eu

Objectives

Risk assessmentInput to further systemic risk analysis

Communication tool

Macro risk Credit risk Market risk Liquidity and funding Interlinkages Profitability & Solvency

ESRB Risk Dashboard First publication 20 September 2012

Evidence based policy making

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1. MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012

2. 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators

3. Data sources are Eurostat and ECB

4. Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances (“Alert mechanism””)

5. On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators

1. MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012

2. 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators

3. Data sources are Eurostat and ECB

4. Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances (“Alert mechanism””)

5. On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators

Scoreboard

Statistics for EU macro-economic surveillance


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Action Plan following the IMF/FSB report to the G-20 on “The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps”

Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) website: http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/

20 Recommendations being developed and implemented

Key role of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (chaired by the IMF and comprising the BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, WB and the UN)


Global level

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How to access ECB statistics?

• ECB website

• Press releases

• Interactive graphics

• Publications

• Statistical Data Warehousehttp://sdw.ecb.europa.eu

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Thank you for your attention!!!

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Annex

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Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 1/2

Monetary & financial statistics

• Monetary aggregates and counterparts

• Balance sheet statistics of Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs), Investment Funds (IFs), Financial Vehicle Corporations (FVC) as well as Insurance Corporations (IC) and Pension Funds (PF)

• Statistics on average interest rates (deposits from / loans to households for consumption or housing; deposits from / loans to firms)

• Securities issues statistics, yield curves, financial markets price and volume statistics, payments and securities settlement statistics

• Financial stability statistics and indicators – also to support the ESRB, Financial integration indicators, STEP Market statistics

External statistics • Balance of payments, international investment position (including

international reserves), effective exchange rates, international role of the euro

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Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 2/2

Euro area accounts• Integrated quarterly accounts (non-financial and financial) by institutional

sector encompassing transactions, other flows and balance sheets

Government finance statistics • Revenue, expenditure, deficit, debt, deficit-debt adjustment

Surveys• Survey on the access to finance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the

euro area

• Household Finance and Consumption Survey

General economic statistics • Seasonally adjusted HICP, residential property price indicator, short-term

indicators, timely labour market statistics (e.g. euro area negotiated wages developments)

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aurel schubert director-general statistics, ecb escb statistics and its main challenges ahead joint...

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