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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending August U.S. Consumer Spending Report A Surprise Uptick in August Consumer Spending – Back to School Shoppers Open Their Wallets Jean Crumrine and Paul Carton Overview: A new ChangeWave survey shows a surprise uptick in U.S. consumer spending for August – a reversal of the downtrend seen in our last three monthly surveys. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research. Importantly, the August 1-10 survey of 2,332 U.S. consumers points to one of the most robust Back to School shopping seasons of the past five years. And in a further positive, consumer confidence and expectations show modest improvement for the second survey in a row. In terms of individual spending categories, the biggest upswings are occurring in consumer electronics, household repairs, autos and consumer durable goods. And after several tepid months, a handful of major retailers are now showing momentum – led by Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY). Consumer Spending Picks Up in August Better than one-in-four U.S. respondents (27%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since our previous survey in July. And while 33% still say they'll spend less – that’s also 2-pts better than previously. This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information. It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved. August 16, 2012

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Page 1: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

August U.S. Consumer Spending ReportA Surprise Uptick in August Consumer Spending – Back to School Shoppers Open Their Wallets Jean Crumrine and Paul Carton

Overview: A new ChangeWave survey shows a surprise uptick in U.S. consumer spending for August – a reversal of the downtrend seen in our last three monthly surveys. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

Importantly, the August 1-10 survey of 2,332 U.S. consumers points to one of the most robust Back to School shopping seasons of the past five years. And in a further positive, consumer confidence and expectations show modest improvement for the second survey in a row.

In terms of individual spending categories, the biggest upswings are occurring in consumer electronics, household repairs, autos and consumer durable goods. And after several tepid months, a handful of major retailers are now showing momentum – led by Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY).

Consumer Spending Picks Up in August

Better than one-in-four U.S. respondents (27%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since our previous survey in July. And while 33% still say they'll spend less – that’s also 2-pts better than previously.

Putting the Findings in Context. As the following chart shows, August’s net 4-pt improvement is the first uptick in four months. Moreover, the current findings are in sharp contrast to the 12-pt decline registered a year ago in August 2011 at the height of the U.S. debt reduction crisis.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

August 16, 2012

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Note that the spending outlook is stabilizing across all income categories.

Back to School Outlook The “Back to School” shopping season is second only to the holidays in terms of its importance to the overall consumer economy and major retailers. In the August survey we asked about Back to School shopping plans, and surprisingly found the consumer spending outlook looks stronger than in any of the previous four years.

Do you think you (and your family) will be spending more money on "Back to School" shopping this year, less money, or about the same amount of money this year compared to last year?

Current Survey Aug ’12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyAug ‘10

PreviousSurveyAug ‘09

PreviousSurveyAug ‘08

More Money on "Back to School" Shopping Than Last Year

37% 29% 34% 35% 32%

Less Money on "Back to School" Shopping Than Last Year

19% 17% 20% 20% 21%

About the Same Amount of Money as Last Year

43% 51% 44% 44% 47%

Don't Know 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% Among those engaging in Back to School shopping, a robust 37% say they’ll spend More Money than last year and just 19% Less. The +18 Net Difference represents a 6-pt increase over a year ago.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Page 3: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

As the above chart shows, back to school shopping plans are the highest we’ve seen since the depths of the recession.

An Improvement in Consumer Expectations and Confidence Last month we found “rays of hope” in the unexpected improvement in consumer expectations and confidence. This month we’re seeing yet another improvement.

Consumer Expectations. A total of 12% think the overall direction of the U.S. economy will improve over the next 90 days and 47% believe it will worsen – but that’s a net 5-pts better than last month and 8-pts better than two months ago.

Stock Market Confidence. In another positive, 15% now say they’re More Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago – 4-pts better than previously. And while 42% still say they’re Less Confident – it’s an 8-pt improvement since July.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Page 4: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Individual Spending Categories

In terms of the individual spending categories for August, the biggest upswings are occurring in consumer electronics, household repairs, autos and consumer durable goods.

Note that for Consumer Electronics (+4) it’s the first uptick in five months, while spending on Household Repairs/Improvements (+2) is up for the first time in four months. Both Autos (+2) and Durable Goods (+2) are also showing improvement.

Although spending on Travel/ Vacation (-1) and Restaurants (-2) is down this month, it’s primarily due to seasonal factors as the summer heads towards a close.

Retailer Trends

After a few tepid months, a handful of major retailers are now showing momentum – led by Target (TGT; up 4-pts), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; up 2-pts) and Walmart (WMT; up 2-pts).

Other retailers experiencing a slight improvement since July include Kohl’s (KSS; up 1-pt), and JC Penney (JCP; up 1-pt). At the same time, Costco (COST) is flat, while Macy’s (M) and TJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Page 5: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingHome Entertainment Shopping

With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall leader on the home entertainment retail front – is registering a 2-pt increase with 43% of respondents saying they’ll shop there over the next 90 days for their home entertainment and computer networking products.

Best Buy (BBY; 29%) is up 4-pts this month – although that’s off its weakest reading ever in our July survey.

And Apple (AAPL) is unchanged from July, with 21% saying they’ll shop there for home entertainment and computer networking products. We note, however, this is 2-pts higher than in August 2011 and just 2-pts below their all-time high in a ChangeWave survey.

Bottom Line: Our August survey shows a surprise uptick in U.S. consumer spending this month – a reversal of the downtrend we’ve been seeing ever since May. Not only is the August survey pointing to one of the most robust back to school shopping seasons in five years, it’s also showing an improvement in U.S. consumer confidence and expectations.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Page 6: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Summary of Key Findings

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Further Improvement in Expectations and ConfidenceConsumer Expectations 12% believe the overall

direction of U.S. economy will improve over next 90 days and 47% think it will worsen – but that’s a net 5-pts better than last month

Stock Market Confidence 15% say they’re More

Confident in the U.S. stock market – 4-pts better than previously

And while 42% still say they’re Less Confident –that’s an 8-pt improvement since July

Back to School Outlook – One of the Most Robust in Years Among those doing Back to

School shopping, a robust 37% say they’ll spend More Money than last year while just 19% Less – a net 6-pt increase from year ago

Retailer Store TrendsRetailers Showing Greatest Overall Momentum Target (up 3-pts) Walmart (up 2-pts) Bed, Bath&Beyond (up 2-pts)Other Retailers Showing Slight Improvement Kohl’s (up 1-pt) JC Penney (up 1-pt)

Home Entertainment Shopping Amazon (43%) is up 2-pts Best Buy (29%) is up 4-pts –

but that’s off its weakest reading ever in July survey

Apple (21%) is unchanged – but just 2-pts below its all- time ChangeWave high

A Surprise Uptick in August Consumer Spending 27% of U.S. respondents now

say they’ll spend More Money over next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since July

And while 33% say they’ll spend Less Money – that’s also 2-pts better than previously

August’s net 4-pt improvement is the biggest uptick in four months

Individual Categories Showing Upswings Consumer Electronics (+4) Household Repairs (+2) Autos (+2) Durable Goods (+2)Seasonal Declines Travel Vacation (-1) Restaurants (-2)

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Table of Contents

Summary of Key Findings.............................................................................................6

The Findings...................................................................................................................8

(A) Overall U.S. Consumer Spending.........................................................................8

(B) Back to School Shopping....................................................................................11

(C) Consumer Expectations and Confidence............................................................13

(D) Individual Consumer Spending Categories.........................................................15

(E) Overall Retailer Trends........................................................................................18

(F) Home Entertainment Shopping............................................................................19

(G) Impact of the Economy on Investors...................................................................21

(H) Reasons for Spending Less................................................................................22

ChangeWave Research Methodology........................................................................24

About ChangeWave Research....................................................................................24

About 451 Research.....................................................................................................24

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

The Findings

Introduction: A new ChangeWave survey shows a surprise uptick in U.S. consumer spending for August – a reversal of the downtrend seen in our last three monthly surveys. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

Importantly, the August 1-10 survey of 2,332 U.S. consumers points to one of the most robust Back to School shopping seasons of the past five years. And in a further positive, consumer confidence and expectations show modest improvement for the second survey in a row.

In terms of individual spending categories, the biggest upswings are occurring in consumer electronics, household repairs, autos and consumer durable goods. And after several tepid months, a handful of major retailers are now showing momentum – led by Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY).

(A) Overall U.S. Consumer Spending

Better than one-in-four U.S. respondents (27%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since our previous survey in July. And while 33% still say they'll spend less – that’s also 2-pts better than previously.

Would you say your overall spending over the next 90 days will be more than last year, less than last year, or the same as last year?

CurrentSurveyAug ‘12

PreviousSurveyJul ‘12

PreviousSurveyJun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

More Spending Than Last Year

27% 25% 31% 32% 34% 23% 29%

Less Spending Than Last Year

33% 35% 31% 26% 26% 40% 34%

Spending Will Remain the Same as Last Year

39% 39% 37% 40% 39% 35% 36%

Don't Know 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Page 9: August U.S. Consumer Spending · Web viewTJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt. Home Entertainment Shopping With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingPutting the Findings in Context. As the following chart shows, August’s net 4-pt improvement is the first uptick in four months. Moreover, the current findings are in sharp contrast to the 12-pt decline registered a year ago in August 2011 at the height of the U.S. debt reduction crisis.

Note that the spending outlook is stabilizing across all income categories.

A Leading Indicator. Historically, ChangeWave’s monthly consumer spending surveys have proven to be highly accurate indicators of the directional movement of the S&P 500 Index and the overall U.S. economy.

Below we show ChangeWave’s U.S. Consumer Behavioral Data since May 2007 collapsed into a single line (i.e., % of consumers spending More over the next 90 days minus % spending Less), and compare it to the movement of the S&P 500 index:

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

10

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(B) Back to School Outlook The “Back to School” shopping season is second only to the holidays in terms of its importance to the overall consumer economy and major retailers. In the August survey we asked about Back to School shopping plans, and surprisingly found the consumer spending outlook looks stronger than in any of the previous four years.

Do you think you (and your family) will be spending more money on "Back to School" shopping this year, less money, or about the same amount of money this year compared to last year?

Current Survey Aug ’12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyAug ‘10

Previous

SurveyAug ‘09

PreviousSurveyAug ‘08

More Money on "Back to School" Shopping Than Last Year

37% 29% 34% 35% 32%

Less Money on "Back to School" Shopping Than Last Year

19% 17% 20% 20% 21%

About the Same Amount of Money as Last Year

43% 51% 44% 44% 47%

Don't Know 1% 2% 1% 0% 1%

Among those engaging in Back to School shopping, a robust 37% say they’ll spend More Money than last year and just 19% Less. The +18 Net Difference represents a 6-pt increase over a year ago.

As the above chart shows, back to school shopping plans are the highest we’ve seen since the depths of the recession.

Here are additional Back to School findings:

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingReasons Given by Shoppers Who are Spending More Money

For those who are spending MORE money on "Back to School" shopping this year compared to last year, what are the top one or two reasons why? (Choose No More Than Two)

Reasons Given by Shoppers Who are Spending Less Money

And for those who are spending LESS money on "Back to School" shopping this year compared to last year, what are the top one or two reasons why? (Choose No More Than Two)

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(C) An Improvement in Consumer Expectations and Confidence Last month we found “rays of hope” in the unexpected improvement in consumer expectations and confidence. This month we’re seeing yet another improvement.

In your opinion, which of the following statements best describes the overall direction of the economy over the next 90 days?

Current Survey Aug ‘12

PreviousSurveyJul ‘12

Previous

SurveyJun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

Previous Survey Aug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

The economy is going to improve over the next 90 days

12% 12% 12% 18% 31% 9% 16%

The economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days

47% 52% 55% 36% 26% 63% 46%

The economy is going to remain the same over the next 90 days

39% 36% 33% 43% 43% 28% 37%

Consumer Expectations. A total of 12% think the overall direction of the U.S. economy will improve over the next 90 days and 47% believe it will worsen – but that’s a net 5-pts better than last month and 8-pts better than two months ago.

Are you now more or less confident in the U.S. stock market compared to 90 days ago?

Current Survey Aug’ 12

CurrentSurveyJul ‘12

PreviousSurveyJun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

Previous Survey Aug ‘11

Previous Survey Jul ‘11

More Confident Than 90 Days Ago

15% 11% 9% 13% 25% 7% 13%

Less Confident Than 90 Days Ago

42% 50% 62% 42% 32% 70% 50%

No Change 37% 36% 26% 41% 39% 20% 35%This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.

It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.13

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingDon't Know 6% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3%

Stock Market Confidence. In another positive, 15% now say they’re More Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago – 4-pts better than previously. And while 42% still say they’re Less Confident – it’s an 8-pt improvement since July.

Other findings also point to improvements in consumer sentiment:

Looking back at where you thought the economy was headed 3 months ago, would you say the current state of the economy is better than you thought it would be, about the same, or worse than you thought it would be?

Current Survey Aug ‘12

CurrentSurveyJul ‘12

PreviousSurvey

Jun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

Previous Survey Aug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

Better Than I thought it Would be 3 Months Ago

9% 9% 6% 17% 34% 3% 10%

About the Same 55% 48% 45% 59% 52% 29% 47%Worse Than I thought it Would be 3 Months Ago

34% 42% 48% 22% 13% 68% 43%

A total of 9% say the current state of the economy is better today than they thought it would be 90 days ago, while 34% believe the economy is worse – but that’s 8-pts improved from previously.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(D) Individual Consumer Spending Categories

Which of the following consumer items will you be spending more money on over the next 90 days compared to last year? (Check All That Apply)

CurrentSurveyAug ‘12

Previous SurveyJul ‘12

Previous Survey Jun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

Household Repairs/ Improvements

31% 30% 31% 35% 36% 31% 31%

Travel/Vacation 26% 28% 30% 29% 28% 24% 29%Consumer Electronics 15% 12% 13% 14% 15% 15% 13%Healthcare Services 13% 13% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13%Durable Goods for the Home 12% 10% 10% 13% 13% 10% 11%Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment

10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 10% 12%

Automobile Purchase 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7%Children's Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

7% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 8%

Other Services (e.g. adult education, fitness activities)

5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3%

And which of the following consumer items will you be spending less money on over the next 90 days than last year? (Check All That Apply)

CurrentSurveyAug ‘12

PreviousSurveyJul ‘12

Previous Survey Jun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

Consumer Electronics 30% 31% 31% 30% 30% 34% 32%Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment

30% 29% 26% 25% 25% 33% 31%

Travel/Vacation 28% 29% 26% 23% 25% 31% 28%Durable Goods for the Home 24% 24% 22% 20% 20% 26% 24%Automobile Purchase 20% 21% 20% 21% 19% 22% 20%Household Repairs/Improvements

16% 17% 15% 13% 13% 16% 16%

Children's Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 9%

Other Services (e.g. adult education, fitness activities)

8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9%

Healthcare Services 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingChange in Net Difference Score - Current Survey (Aug 2012) vs. Previous Survey (Jul 2012)

CurrentSurvey

Net Difference

Score(Aug ’12)

PreviousSurvey

Net Difference

Score(Jul ’12)

Change in Net

Difference Score

Consumer Electronics -15 -19 +4Household Repairs/Improvements +15 +13 +2Automobile Purchase -13 -15 +2Durable Goods for the Home -12 -14 +2Other Services (e.g. adult education, health and fitness activities)

-3 -5 +2

Healthcare Services +7 +6 +1Travel/Vacation -2 -1 -1Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment -20 -18 -2Children’s Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

-1 +1 -2

Individual Spending Categories. In terms of the individual spending categories for August, the biggest upswings are occurring in consumer electronics, household repairs, autos and consumer durable goods.

Note that for Consumer Electronics (+4) it’s the first uptick in five months, while spending on Household Repairs/Improvements (+2) is up for the first time in four months.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Both Autos (+2) and Durable Goods (+2) are also showing improvement.

Although spending on Travel/ Vacation (-1) and Restaurants (-2) is down this month, it’s primarily due to seasonal factors as the summer heads towards a close.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(E) Overall Retailer Trends

After a few tepid months, a handful of major retailers are now showing momentum – led by Target (TGT; up 4-pts), Walmart (WMT; up 2-pts) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; up 2-pts).

Other retailers experiencing a slight improvement since July include Kohl’s (KSS; up 1-pt), and JC Penney (JCP; up 1-pt). At the same time, Costco (COST) is flat, while Macy’s (M) and TJ Maxx (TJX) are each down 1-pt.

We want to learn more about how consumers will be spending their shopping dollars over the next 90 days. For each of the following stores, please tell us if you will be spending more money, about the same amount, or less money over the next 90 days compared with the previous 90 days.

MoreMoney

LessMoney

NetScore

MonthlyChange

FromJul ‘12

Year-to-Year

ChangeFrom

Aug ‘11

SameAmount

ofMoney

NoMoney

Target 8% 9% -1 +4 +2 48% 28%Walmart 9% 9% 0 +2 +2 50% 24%Bed, Bath & Beyond 4% 9% -5 +2 +1 28% 52%Kohl's 4% 8% -4 +1 +1 30% 49%JC Penney 2% 10% -8 +1 0 19% 61%Dillard's 1% 3% -2 +1 +2 9% 78%Costco 10% 6% +4 0 +1 36% 43%Sam's Club 4% 4% 0 0 0 19% 64%BJ's Wholesale Club 1% 2% -1 0 0 6% 82%Bloomingdale's 0% 2% -2 0 0 4% 84%Ross 2% 4% -2 0 0 12% 73%Nordstrom 2% 6% -4 0 +2 13% 70%K-Mart 1% 6% -5 0 +1 15% 70%Sears 1% 10% -9 0 0 23% 56%Macy's 2% 10% -8 -1 +1 27% 52%T.J. Maxx 2% 6% -4 -1 0 18% 63%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(F) Home Entertainment Shopping

With consumer electronics outperforming in August, Amazon (AMZN) – the overall leader on the home entertainment retail front – is registering a 2-pt increase with 43% of respondents saying they’ll shop there over the next 90 days for their home entertainment and computer networking products.

Best Buy (BBY; 29%) is up 4-pts this month – although that’s off its weakest reading ever in our July survey.

And Apple (AAPL) is unchanged from July, with 21% saying they’ll shop there for home entertainment and computer networking products. We note, however, this is 2-pts higher than in August 2011 and just 2-pts below their all-time high in a ChangeWave survey.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Over the next 90 days, which of the following stores do you think you and your family will shop at for home entertainment and computer/ networking products? (Choose No More Than Three)

CurrentSurveyAug ‘12

Previous SurveyJul ‘12

Previous Survey Jun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

Amazon 43% 41% 44% 46% 44% 38% 32%Apple 21% 21% 21% 23% 23% 19% 17%Best Buy 29% 25% 25% 30% 28% 32% 31%BJ's Wholesale Club 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Buy.com 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%Costco 23% 21% 21% 23% 21% 21% 20%Dell Online 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%eBay 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6%Fry's Electronics 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8%FutureShop 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%hhgregg 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% NA NAMicro Center 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2%Newegg 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 5%Office Depot 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%OfficeMax 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%Radio Shack 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Sam's Club 6% 7% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8%Staples 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9%Target 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%TigerDirect 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5%Walmart 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 13% 12%Other 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(G) Impact of the Economy on Investors

We also asked respondents about their investing plans going forward, and found the rate of net money outflow from U.S. Stocks (-3; up 2-pts) has subsided for the second survey in a row, as has the rate of money outflow from Non-U.S. Stocks (-9; up 2-pts).

In light of recent events, will you be investing more money or less money going forward in each of the following vehicles?

Here’s the complete breakdown:

More Money

Less Money

Net Score

Change in Net Score

Same Amount

of Money

No Money

Gold 13% 4% +9 +3 24% 48%Short-Side Investments (stocks, ETFs, etc.)

10% 4% +6 +3 17% 57%

Other Commodities 8% 5% +3 +2 19% 55%U.S. Stocks 14% 17% -3 +2 52% 13%Mutual Funds 3% 9% -6 +2 37% 41%Non-U.S. Stocks 8% 17% -9 +2 38% 29%Real Estate 10% 4% +6 +1 24% 51%Equity Options 8% 7% +1 +1 19% 55%ETFs 9% 9% 0 +1 35% 38%CDs (Certificates of Deposit) 2% 5% -3 +1 13% 67%Money Market Funds 5% 10% -5 +1 33% 41%Currencies 3% 3% 0 0 11% 70%Index Options 3% 6% -3 -1 13% 65%Bonds 4% 10% -5 -1 26% 49%High-Yield/ Income/ Dividend Focused Vehicles

17% 3% +14 -1 29% 39%

Going to Cash 14% 8% +6 -3 34% 31%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

(H) Reasons for Spending Less

Among consumers who say they’re spending less, Saving More Money (29%) is a top reason for why, and it’s up 2-pts since July. Reducing Debt (28%; unchanged) also remains a top reasons for why consumers say they are spending less – unchanged from previously.

Reduced Income (38%) remains the biggest reason of all why consumers are spending less – up 2-pts this month, although it’s still below the recent peak of 41% this past April.

Impact of Energy Costs Consumer concerns over higher energy costs registered a slight uptick for the first time in five months. Only 15% say Higher Energy Costs is a major reason for why they’re spending less – up 2-pts from the 18-month low in our previous ChangeWave survey.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

Other Reasons Given By Consumers Who Are Spending Less

Here’s the complete breakdown of reasons given by consumers who are spending less:

For those who will be spending less than last year, what are the most important reasons why? (Choose No More Than Three)

Reasons Given By Respondents Spending Less

Current Survey Aug ‘12

Previous Survey Jul ‘12

Previous Survey Jun ‘12

Previous Survey May ‘12

Previous Survey Apr ‘12

PreviousSurveyAug ‘11

PreviousSurveyJul ‘11

Cost of Living/InflationInflation/Increase Cost of Living 31% 33% 29% 36% 40% 43% 39%Higher Energy Costs 15% 13% 14% 23% 30% 24% 26%Medical Expenses 11% 12% 10% 11% 8% 10% 10%Education Expenses 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6%Trying to Improve Personal FinancesReducing Debt 28% 28% 33% 26% 26% 26% 25%Saving More Money 29% 27% 31% 23% 21% 29% 25%Investing More Money 10% 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 6%Big Ticket Purchases/ExpensesHome Improvement Expenses 11% 11% 9% 11% 10% 10% 9%Recent Purchase of Big Ticket Item(s) 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 8% 8%Purchased New Home 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1%Mortgage/Home Equity CostsMortgage Payment Increased 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%Home Equity Loan Payment Increased 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%OtherReduced Income 38% 36% 40% 35% 41% 36% 39%Value of Home Has Decreased 7% 9% 9% 10% 8% 11% 10%Traveling Less 11% 13% 13% 11% 8% 9% 12%

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

ChangeWave Research MethodologyThis report presents the findings of a recent ChangeWave survey on consumer spending patterns. The survey was conducted between August 1-10, 2012. A total of 2,332 U.S. respondents participated in the survey.

ChangeWave's proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members of its research network.

The business and investment intelligence provided by ChangeWave provides a real-time view of companies, technologies, and consumer and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.

About ChangeWave ResearchChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, is a survey research firm that identifies and quantifies change in corporate buying & business trends, telecom trends, and consumer spending & electronics trends.

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals – as well as early adopter consumers – who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its Network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports. ChangeWave delivers its products and services on the Web at www.ChangeWaveResearch.com. 

451 Research, LLC, including its ChangeWave Research service, does not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this report. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.

About 451 Research451 Research, a division of The 451 Group, is a leading global analyst and data company focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. Clients of 451 Research – at end-user, service-provider, vendor, and investor organizations – rely on 451 Research’s insight through a range of syndicated research and advisory services to support both strategic and tactical decision-making. For additional information on 451 Research, go to: 451research.com.

For More Information:ChangeWave Research Telephone: 301-250-23637101 Wisconsin Ave. Fax: 240-200-3988Suite 1301 www.ChangeWaveResearch.comBethesda, MD 20814 [email protected]

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2012 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

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