Evidence Base Presentation 16th August 2018

Terry Rawnsley National Leader

Economic & Social Analysis

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Outline

Executive Summary Transport & Land Use Transport Impact Model (TIM) Scenario Findings – Greater Melbourne Scenario Findings – Regional Analysis Implications Questions

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Executive Summary All scenarios show a consistent pattern of dispersing urban development across

Melbourne. The changes in relative accessibility cause between 10.8% and 14.5% of new dwellings and between 16.6% and 22.3% of new jobs in Melbourne to shift location.

Automated and zero emissions vehicles provided increased levels of accessibility, particularly for areas with good access to freeways and major arterial roads.

Inner city locations and areas surrounding major employment hubs become relatively less attractive for households and jobs, while middle ring suburbs with good arterial roads and access to the freeway network have become more attractive.

In particular, the Peninsula Link – East Link – North East Link Corridor see significant additional growth under all of the scenarios. Brimbank in the west (at the junction of the major freeways) also consistently sees additional dwelling and job growth.

In Regional Victoria, Greater Geelong sees the strongest growth. Ballarat, Bendigo and other regional cities also see additional growth. Most rural areas see a decline in dwellings and jobs growth.

Transport and land use

It has long been observed that land use patterns will adjust over time in response to changes in relative transport accessibility.

Major transport infrastructure projects re-sculpt the pattern of urban development.

Substantial shifts in transport accessibility will change the location choices of firms and households alike.

Moving operations to areas of superior accessibility reduces transaction costs in dealing with suppliers and distributors, as well as improving access to workers.

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Transport & Land Use

These same dynamics apply to households. They adjust location to maximise opportunities for employment, education, recreation and other services.

This, in turn, will signal where new and/or intensified urban development is warranted under commercial market rules. The outcome is a shift in urban form and urban structure.

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Transport & Land Use

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History of Melbourne’s housing growth Urban development was driven by train and tram network

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History of Melbourne’s housing growth Car ownership sprawled development to ‘fill in the gaps”.

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History of Melbourne’s housing growth Car ownership and new freeways sprawled development further.

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History of Melbourne’s housing growth Traffic congestion and central city job growth slow the sprawl.

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History of Melbourne’s housing growth Western Ring Road and CityLink shift development to the West

Transport Impact Model

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Base Case + Six Project Scenarios

Scenario

Variations

Slow Lane Fleet Street Private Drive

Low MUTT

Empty Running

Low MUTT

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Transport Impact Model

Housing & Employment

Capacity Limits (SAM)

Effective Job Density (EJD) is a measure of the overall accessibility of an area.

EJD is the sum employment in the area and the employment in all other areas divided by the travel time in reaching these external jobs, with travel time weighted for transport mode.

A relative EJD index is used for TIM. The index is created using the SA2 that has the highest EJD (Melbourne = 1) and the lowest EDJ (Yarra Ranges = 0),

So even if an area has improved access, it may not improve in relative terms.

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Transport Impact Model

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Effective Job Density

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Dwelling Impacts

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Employment Impacts

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TIM Elasticity

Scenario Impact

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Scenario Impact

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Scenario findings Greater Melbourne

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Dead End: Projection

Scenario Impacts – Melbourne Metro

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Percentage of new jobs and households which change location

Range of impact of Mega Projects

All scenarios broadly show the dispersion of dwellings and employment across Melbourne but there are some key differences in how the scenarios impact land use.

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Scenario Findings

More willing to travel

= more dispersion More congestion

= more dispersion

Higher costs when sharing

= less dispersion

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Key locations

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Slow Lane

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Private Drive

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Private Drive Low Mutt

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Private Drive Low Mutt

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Fleet Street

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Fleet Street Low Mutt

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Dwelling Densities

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Built Form

Lack of diversity Medium Density Development

Lack of diversity Medium Density Development

Additional Development – Post 2031

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City of Melbourne Car parking

Between 11% and 23% of carparks are unoccupied.

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Employment Densities

Commercial Feasibility

Regional Victoria

Scenario findings

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Private Drive - Employment

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Private Drive - Dwellings

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Fleet Street- Employment

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Fleet Street- Dwellings

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Infrastructure Implications Scenarios suggest that automated vehicles will create additional growth fronts across

urban Melbourne.

Established middle ring and outer suburbs will see a surge in urban development.

Inner city and fringe greenfields will still see significant rates of growth.

Some parts of rural Regional Victoria will see even lower levels of growth than current forecasts. There may be threshold issues for the provision of services and infrastructure.

The need for additional infrastructure will depend on how technology is used, e.g. less sprawl under shared ownership.

In middle ring suburbs, the removal of the need for carparking is unlikely to change in the density of development. Dwellings may become slightly larger or cheaper.

In inner suburbs, the removal of the need for carparking will likely result in slightly cheaper dwellings. However, current trends will see large amounts of carparking being provided in the inner city for at least the next 10-15 years.

It is difficult for carparks to be converted to another use. This is due to lower ceiling heights and a lack of access to utilities and the cost to retrofit these services.

Explore the results yourself at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/sgsecoandplan#!/vizhome/IVDashboardv1_0/IVDashboardv1_0

Link available from the IV Evidence Base web page

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Interactive Dasboard

Questions

Evidence Base Presentation 16th August 2018

Terry Rawnsley National Leader

Economic & Social Analysis