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Post-Election National Survey of Mongolian Public Opinion August 16 26, 2016 The Government of Canada

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Page 1: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Post-Election National Survey of Mongolian Public Opinion

August 16 – 26, 2016

The Government of Canada

Page 2: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by Social Policy Development Research Institute (SPDRI) under thesupervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August16 – August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey completed March 1 – March 15, 2016.

• Data was collected using in-person, in-home interviews. The sample was stratified by 13 of Mongolia’s21 aimags (provinces) and Ulaanbaatar and then by soum (town) or district. Interviews were conductedin both urban and rural locations.

• The sample consisted of 5,000 respondents (response rate: 96.15 percent) aged 18 and older, and wasrepresentative of voting-age adults nationally.

• Within each of the selected 13 aimags outside of Ulaanbaatar, 2,800 interviews were conducted inthree randomly selected soums. Districts were randomly selected in Ulaanbaatar, where 2,200interviews were conducted. The total number of interviews to conduct within an aimag wasdetermined utilizing voter registration information from the 2013 presidential election.

• After identifying a centrally located starting point, a skip pattern was used to select appropriatehouseholds. Within each household, the Kish Grid was then used to select respondents 18 years andolder.

• Interview teams were comprised of both males and females.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.4 percent at the mid-range with a confidencelevel of 95 percent.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for marketand social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due torounding.

Within each of the selected 13 aimags outside of Ulaanbaatar, 2,800 interviews were conducted in three

randomly selected soums. All nine districts in Ulaanbaatar were surveyed, where 2,200 interviews were

conducted. The total number of interviews to conduct within an aimag was determined by utilizing voter

registration information from the 2013 presidential election.

Page 3: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

General Attitudes

Page 4: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Overall, do you think Mongolia is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

4

19%

31%

61%

47%

21% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

March 2016 August 2016

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused

Page 5: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Why do you say right direction? (open-ended, n=1,551)

5

2%

3%

3%

3%

12%

27%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

General positive feeling

Expanded opportunity for

individuals

Open and multilateral

foreign policy

Freedom to travel and

migrate ensured

The right political party

has won the elections

Construction and infrastructure

sectors are growing

People’s livelihood has

improved

Page 6: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Why do you say wrong direction? (open-ended, n=2,340)

6

4%

2%

2%

3%

5%

6%

9%

11%

12%

45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Uncertain future for Mongolians

The wrong political party has been elected

Unstable political environment

Improper government policies

General negative feeling

General instability of the economy

Policies are not influenced by public opinion

Corruption and bureaucracy are increasing

Bad policy in mineral extraction and inappropriate

use of income from mining and natural resources

<1%

Page 7: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you expect the national government of Mongolia to be more stable, less stable or remain as it is now for the next four years?

7

13%

21%

26%

41%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Less stable

Same

More stable

Page 8: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

What are the three most important problems facing Mongolia? First answer mentioned

(open-ended)

8

11%

3%

4%

5%

6%

8%

16%

48%

13%

3%

3%

5%

6%

9%

16%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Other

Alcoholism

Political conflict/Tension

Economy

Price inflation

Corruption

Poverty

Unemployment

August 2016 March 2016

Page 9: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

What are the top three issues that Parliament needs to focus on in the coming year? (open-ended)

9

Response First Second Third

Decrease poverty and unemployment, increase job opportunities 25% 16% 7%

Sustainable development of economy, balance budget loss, decrease

unnecessary spending, alleviate debt12% 9% 5%

Combat bribery 11% 8% 4%

Ensure quality of education 4% 5% 3%

Increase salaries, pensions and social welfare 3% 3% 2%

Improve health care service 3% 4% 3%

Stabilize inflation 2% 4% 3%

Develop the country through good programs and supporting the private

sector2% 2% 2%

Support youth and young families 1% 1% 1%

Eliminate air pollution and environmental pollution 1% 2% 2%

Other 10% 11% 12%

Don’t know/Refused 24% 36% 54%

Page 10: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Mongolia?

10

2%

35%

57%

5%

1%

4%

27%

53%

14%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Very bad

Bad

Good

Very good

August 2016 March 2016

Page 11: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, over the past year has it gotten better, worse or is it about the same?

11

2%

37%

56%

6%

2%

46%

44%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Same

Worse

Better

August 2016 March 2016

Page 12: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking some more about your personal economic situation, in the coming year do you think that it is going to get better, worse or stay

about the same?

12

22%

27%

14%

36%

18%

29%

13%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Same

Worse

Better

August 2016 March 2016

Page 13: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you expect the price of basic commodities such as milk, bread and meat to be higher or lower one year from now?

13

14%

1%

7%

17%

45%

16%

10%

1%

6%

17%

45%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Much lower

Slightly lower

Same

Slightly higher

Much higher

August 2016 March 2016

Page 14: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

In Mongolia, if you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous

economy?

14

11%

31%

18%

14%

27%

9%

30%

10%

15%

37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

August 2016 March 2016

Democracy is definitely

more important to me

Democracy is somewhat

more important to me

Prosperity is definitely

more important to me

Prosperity is somewhat

more important to me

Page 15: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you expect the condition of democracy in Mongolia to improve over the next four years, stay the same or get worse?

15

12%

10%

42%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Get worse

Stay the same

Improve

Page 16: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Voting and Elections

Page 17: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Agree or Disagree?Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the country.

17

7%

4%

9%

43%

37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

Page 18: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking now about elections, did you vote in the 2016 parliamentary elections?

18

86%

12%

2%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

Page 19: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

During the 2016 parliamentary elections, were you or anyone you know personally offered a

bribe in exchange for their vote?

19

14%

76%

10%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

11%

78%

11%

During the 2016 parliamentary elections, were you or anyone you know personally told by a

party representative, business owner or government official to change their voter

registration to a district other than the one in which they actually live?

Page 20: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

If you voted in the 2016 parliamentary elections, which party did you vote for?(n=4,274)

20

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

5%

5%

26%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Mongolian Republican Party

Civil Movement Party

Democratic Party

Mongolian People's Party

Mongolian People’s

Revolutionary Party

Independent/Non-party

aligned candidate

Independence and Unity

Coalition

Page 21: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

In the 2016 parliamentary elections the Mongolia People’s Party gained a super majority resulting in its control of 65 of the 76 seats – or

86% of Parliament.

Do you believe that this Parliament is representative of the range of political

viewpoints in Mongolia?

21

47%

36%

17%

80%

13%

7%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

If the parliamentary elections were held today, would you vote the same way that

you voted on June 29?(n=4,274)

Page 22: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Of all the things that were said by the candidates and political parties during the campaign, what one campaign statement or promise most

influenced your vote?(open-ended, n=4,274)

22

35%

6%

2%

3%

4%

4%

4%

5%

7%

7%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Other

To decrease poverty

To stabilize the economy

To increase salaries and social welfare

programs

Confidence that candidate would keep

promises made

Belief that the Democratic Party did well in

the past and needs to finish what it started

Belief that Mongolian People’s Party has

had successful past experience running the

country

Preference for chosen party’s positions

and platform

To address education quality and

accessibility

Respondent decided who to vote for

before the campaign period

Page 23: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

When did you make up your mind as to which candidate or party you would vote for on Election Day?

23

18%

28%

23%

21%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don't know/Refused

Prior to June

In the month of June

On Election Day

The last several days

of the campaign

Page 24: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

On Election Day, how much would you say that you knew about the change in the manner in which Members of Parliament were to be elected?

24

13%

26%

17%

28%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don't know/Refused

Nothing at all

Not too much

Some

A great deal

Page 25: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, all 76 Members of Parliament were elected from single member districts, a change from the 2012 parliamentary elections in which 48

parliamentarians were elected from single member districts and the remaining 28 were elected by nationwide party-list based on proportional representation.

Do you support or oppose this change to Mongolia’s election system?(n=3,053)

25

4%

2%

3%

8%

15%

39%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat support

Strongly support

Do not know the difference between

proportional representation and

single member districts

Did not know there was a change in

the electoral system

Page 26: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Would you favor or oppose a change back to the election system used in 2012?

(n=2,774)

26

5%

25%

30%

24%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat favor

Strongly favor

Page 27: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you think the change to the election system earlier this year resulted in better candidates being elected?

(n=2,774)

27

55%33%

11%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

Page 28: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

How prepared would you say Mongolian voters were with regards to access to information about the procedures and processes for the 2016

parliamentary elections?

28

11%

6%

17%

48%

18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Not prepared at all

Not too prepared

Somewhat prepared

Very prepared

Page 29: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Still thinking about the 2016 parliamentary elections, would you say that your confidence in the Mongolian General Election Commission

increased?

29

7%

5%

11%

38%

24%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Decreased a great deal

Decreased somewhat

Remained the same

Increased somewhat

Increased a great deal

Page 30: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

30

Do you trust the current electronic voting system or black machine to accurately record your vote?

8%

23%

31%

24%

14%

7%

7%

16%

41%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Not at all

Not too much

Somewhat

A great deal

August 2016 March 2016

Page 31: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Views on Parliament

Page 32: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, which of the following most influenced your views of candidates and political parties?

32

4%

6%

2%

3%

4%

5%

5%

7%

14%

18%

31%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Social media

Friends and family

Brochures/Pamphlets

Newspaper articles

TV ads

Meeting with politicians

Paid ads in newspapers for the

candidate or political party

Visits of candidate or party

representatives to your house

Meeting with/opinions of

respected people

Page 33: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

33

During the 2016 parliamentary elections, what or who influenced your voting decision the most?

6%

4%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

7%

12%

15%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Religious group/Religious leaders

Social media

Internet

Village/Community respectedleaders

Civil society organizations

Party leader

Family members/Relatives/Friends

Media

Political party manifestos or

candidate platforms

Page 34: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Based on the various statements made by candidates and the political parties during the recent parliamentary elections, would you say you are

optimistic that promises will be fulfilled?

34

7%

9%

29%

40%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Not at all optimistic

Not too optimistic

Somewhat optimistic

Very optimistic

Page 35: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the presidential election, which will be held in 2017?

35

4%

2%

5%

27%

63%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Don't know/Refused

Very unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

Page 36: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking about the new national government, how optimistic are you about the new government dealing with each of the following issues?

36

11%

12%

12%

12%

12%

12%

13%

13%

13%

14%

43%

43%

42%

37%

37%

45%

39%

40%

43%

41%

28%

27%

27%

32%

29%

28%

27%

30%

28%

25%

12%

12%

12%

14%

17%

10%

15%

13%

12%

13%

7%

8%

7%

6%

5%

5%

6%

5%

5%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Protecting the environment

Attracting foreign investment

Expanding the mining sector

Creating affordable housing

Reducing poverty

Improving education

Improving the economy

Addressing unemployment

Delivering quality healthcare

Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Not too optimistic Not optimistic at all Don't know/Refused

Enhancing young people’s

involvement in the political process

Page 37: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking about the new national government, how optimistic are you about the new government dealing with each of the following issues?

37

6%

7%

8%

8%

9%

10%

10%

10%

10%

19%

31%

28%

45%

33%

40%

34%

37%

40%

24%

34%

33%

31%

30%

30%

32%

34%

30%

23%

16%

19%

11%

21%

13%

19%

13%

13%

28%

12%

12%

6%

8%

7%

5%

7%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Advancing gender equality

Advancing democratic reforms

Fighting crime

Addressing air pollution

Protecting land rights

Combating corruption

Addressing domestic violence

Developing infrastructure

Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Not too optimistic Not optimistic at all Don't know/Refused

Supporting the rights of LGBT

people

Page 38: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

If you could give one piece of advice to the leaders of the new government, what would that advice be?

(open-ended)

38

20%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

9%

9%

11%

13%

22%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Improve infrastructure

Fight against bribery

Make good decisions and policies

Recover the economy from crisis

Reduce unemployment and

provide jobs for youth

Ensure citizen participation and

respect the people’s opinion

Recruit professional people for

their respective sectors

Deliver social welfare for

vulnerable groups

Work in Mongolia’s interest, not

the party’s interest

Keep promises made during the

elections

Page 39: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

What is the most effective way for the new government to engage people like you? (open-ended)

39

48%

2%

3%

4%

4%

4%

5%

5%

7%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Hold project development meetings

Report on progress through social media

Public hearings

Solicit opinions through SMS

Share information about policies and

decisions made

Advertise Citizen Hall activities and

use it regularly

Public meetings with MPs and party

officials during Parliament breaks

Community monitoring of ongoing

projects

Local government meetings and

conferences with citizens

Page 40: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Women and Youth

Page 41: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Agree or Disagree?Women are equally represented in political decision-making positions in

Mongolia.

41

13%

16%

32%

27%

12%

7%

11%

25%

35%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 42: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman,

which candidate are you more likely to support?

42

6%

39%

35%

20%

4%

35%

36%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Woman

Man

August 2016 March 2016

Makes no difference

to me

Page 43: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

In your view, are women government officials generally less corrupt than their male counterparts?

43

25%

36%

40%

17%

38%

45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

No

Yes

August 2016 March 2016

Page 44: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Which of the following would you say is the greatest barrier to greater women’s participation in political decision making?

44

8%

3%

5%

9%

10%

12%

15%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Women's inactivity

Household duties and roles

Lack of support from voters

Women’s lack of education,

knowledge, skill and power

Women’s limited access to

economic resources

Men more talented than

women

Male dominated political

structure

Page 45: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Prior to the 2016 parliamentary elections, Parliament reduced the requirement that at least 30 percent of candidates nominated by a

political party be women to 20 percent. Do you approve or disapprove of this change?

45

13%

17%

34%

26%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disapprove

Somewhat disapprove

Somewhat approve

Strongly approve

Page 46: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Agree or Disagree?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.

46

13%

7%

21%

40%

20%

10%

6%

18%

39%

27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 47: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Agree or Disagree?Domestic violence is a problem in Mongolia.

47

7%

3%

10%

32%

48%

6%

3%

9%

34%

48%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 48: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Agree or Disagree?Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.

48

8%

5%

14%

38%

35%

6%

4%

14%

41%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 49: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Political Parties

Page 50: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Would you say that you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following political parties?

50

3%

18%

24%

19%

35%

41%

34%

26%

21%

29%

15%

9%

15%

6%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

August 2016

3%

12%

9%

20%

29%

33%

37%

32%

33%

22%

19%

16%

18%

8%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable Don't know/Refused to answer

March 2016

Mongolian People's

Party

Democratic Party

Third Party Averages

Democratic Party

Mongolian People's

Party

Third Party Averages

Page 51: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Views on Corruption

Page 52: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Not for Public Distribution

Do you believe that corruption is a major problem, a minor problem, not much of a problem or not a problem at all?

52

8%

1%

3%

13%

75%

4%

2%

4%

14%

76%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don't know/Refused

Not a problem at all

Not much of a problem

A minor problem

A major problem

August 2016 March 2016

Page 53: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Not for Public Distribution

Agree or disagree?The government allocates enough resources to address the corruption

that exists in Mongolia today.

53

10%

34%

32%

15%

8%

14%

17%

27%

27%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 54: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Not for Public Distribution

Agree or Disagree?Officials who commit corruption abuses are adequately punished.

54

10%

34%

32%

15%

8%

9%

35%

29%

18%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

August 2016 March 2016

Page 55: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Views on Mining Practices

Page 56: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Overall, do you think the level of regulation on mining in Mongolia is too strict, too lax or about right?

56

16%

13%

68%

4%

9%

15%

70%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Don't know/Refused

About right

Too lax

Too strict

August 2016 March 2016

Page 57: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you favor or oppose foreign companies having control over mining operations in Mongolia?

57

5%

40%

37%

14%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat favor

Strongly favor

Page 58: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Would you favor or oppose Parliament passing laws that would prevent any foreign investment in mining operations in Mongolia?

58

9%

7%

18%

36%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat favor

Strongly favor

Page 59: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Now I am going to ask you your level of agreement or disagreement to various statements or your position on various

issues.

59

24%

34%

37%

33%

22%

18%

11%

9%

6%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know/Refused

The best way for

Mongolia to reduce

unemployment is to

attract foreign

investment

The province should be

given a proportional

share of revenue from

natural resources to

address the problems

affecting the province

Page 60: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

What do you think foreign investors in mining in Mongolia should focus on the most?

60

6%

1%

7%

12%

20%

21%

35%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Maximize profits/Royalties

Environmental protection

Hiring Mongolians

Investing in community infrastructure

such as school and clinics

Procurement of local goods and

services

Page 61: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Would you say your opinion of Oyu Tolgoi/Rio Tinto is strongly positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or strongly negative?

61

21%

12%

29%

31%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly negative

Somewhat negative

Somewhat positive

Strongly positive

Page 62: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Views on Public Policy

Page 63: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Now I am going to ask you your level of agreement or disagreement to various statements or your position on various issues.

63

9%

9%

10%

29%

35%

34%

23%

35%

33%

33%

34%

20%

16%

18%

26%

9%

6%

6%

7%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused

Increasing public funding for

education will decrease

poverty

Accessing information and

services from the national

government is easy

Accessing information and

services from the provincial

government is easy

It is easy to open a new

business in Mongolia

Page 64: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking about the issue of climate change, would you say that climate change is a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, not that

much of a problem or not a problem at all?

64

4%

2%

6%

33%

55%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Not a problem at all

Not that much of a problem

Somewhat serious problem

Very serious problem

Page 65: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Which type of activity would you be most interested in participating in to develop your community?

(n=4,527)

65

3%

1%

13%

16%

18%

19%

31%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Public hearings

Project creation workshops

Town hall meeting

Community-led monitoring

of current projects

Individual meetings with

politicians/policy makers

I do not interact with civil

servants

Page 66: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Would you say that civil servants, meaning non-elected government employees, are very professional, somewhat professional, not very

professional or not professional at all?

66

9%

5%

7%

25%

43%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Not professional at all

Not too professional

Somewhat professional

Very professional

Page 67: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Which of the following do you believe would do the most to improve the level of professionalism among civil servants, meaning non-elected

government employees?(n=4,265)

67

2%

1%

6%

12%

16%

29%

34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Better training

More management

involvement and direction

Greater flexibility to do their

job as they see fit

Additional explanation of

what is expected of them

Greater leadership from

elected officials

Page 68: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

International Relations

Page 69: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking again about foreign investment in Mongolia, particularly investment from countries in the West, would you favor or oppose more investment from western countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia and western

European countries?

69

19%

6%

7%

43%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat favor

Strongly favor

Page 70: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Thinking about other countries investing money and resources in Mongolia, which one of the following countries would you most favor

investing additional money and resources in Mongolia? (n=3,742)

70

8%

4%

1%

4%

5%

6%

10%

19%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Other

The Netherlands

France

Australia

United Kingdom

Germany

Canada

United States

Page 71: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Media

Page 72: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Do you expect the media to remain free, fair and unbiased

under the new government?(n=2,276)

72

65%

24%

12%

46%

34%

20%

Yes No Don't know/Refused

Do you believe the media is free, fair and unbiased?

Page 73: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

What is the primary reason you believe the media is not or will no longer be free, fair or unbiased?

(n=2,258)

73

7%

1%

7%

8%

24%

25%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don't know/Refused

Foreign government influence

Business influence

Lack of journalist capacity

Government control

Individual or small group of

politicians influence

Media company leadership

control

Page 74: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

From which type of media are you most likely to get your news?

74

10%

1%

1%

2%

6%

12%

77%

3%

1%

3%

4%

10%

17%

63%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Radio

Newspapers

Social media

Internet

TV

August 2016 March 2016

Page 75: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

For those answering TV, which TV station do you most often watch?(March n=3,835/August n=3,158, open-ended)

75

2%

13%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

5%

7%

15%

46%

4%

1%

4%

3%

3%

8%

6%

7%

9%

55%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused

Other

C1

UBS

MN25

TV5

Education

Eagle

Mongol HD

TV9

August 2016 March 2016

Mongolian National

Broadcast

<1%

Page 76: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Which social media platform do you rely on most for political news?

76

11%

16%

2%

5%

23%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Instagram

Twitter

Website/Internet

Facebook

Page 77: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Where do you most often access the Internet?

77

4%

1%

2%

10%

22%

25%

36%

6%

1%

4%

9%

17%

25%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don't know/Refused

Other

Internet café

Office

Home

August 2016 March 2016

Mobile device

(smart phone)

I do not use the

internet

Page 78: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

Demographics

78

Gender

Female 51%

Male 49%

Age

18-30 35%

31-40 26%

41-50 20%

51-60 12%

61+ 7%

Monthly Income*

0-300,000 MNT 12%

300,001-500,000 MNT 21%

500,001-700,000 MNT 17%

700,001-900,000 MNT 14%

900,001-1,100,000 MNT 8%

1,100,001-1,600,000 MNT 8%

1,600,001-2,100,000 MNT 2%

2,100,001+ MNT 1%

Aimag

Urban 53%

Aimag Center 36%

Soum/Rural 11%

Employment Status

Full-time worker 28%

Self-employed 23%

Unemployed 8%

Contract worker 12%

Retired 12%

Student 9%

Disabled 2%

Take care of children 4%

Other <1%

Marital Status

Married 68%

Single 22%

Widowed 4%

Divorced 3%

Partnered 2%

Religion

Buddhism 48%

Not religious 24%

Shamanism 11%

Islam 6%

Christianity 5%

Other/Refused 6%

Political Party Affiliation

Unaffiliated 58%

Democratic Party 12%

Mongolian People’s Party 21%

Mongolian People’s

Revolutionary Party 3%

Civil Will-Green Party 1%

Mongolian National

Democratic Party 1%

National Labor Party <1%

Other <1%

Education

No formal schooling 1%

Primary 3%

Partial secondary 13%

Full secondary 32%

Vocational 14%

College/University 35%

*MNT means Mongolian National Tugrik, the official currency of Mongolia.

Page 79: August 16 26, 2016 - IRI · supervision of Chesapeake Beach Consulting and the International Republican Institute between August 16 –August 26, 2016. The March data is from a survey

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