augmented reality - foresight and consumer acceptance
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© 2013 HYVE AG 1
Augmented Reality
Scientific Study on Foresight and Consumer Acceptance
a first overview of the research questions, methodology and preliminary findings
conducted by HYVE Science Labsin cooperation with our technology partner Insius
Munich, 2013
© 2013 HYVE AG 2
Contents
Aims and Objectives
Methodology - Advantages
Methodology – Social Media Network Audit
First Findings – Quantitative Assessment
First Findings – Demographic Data based on Alexa Traffic
First Findings – Topic Analysis
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6
5
4
3
1
7
Project Overview
© 2013 HYVE AG 3
Project Overview
© 2013 HYVE AG 4
Project OverviewA Project of HYVE and INSIUS
Data Collection
Data will be collected through quantitative web monitoring using Insius software InMap; social network analysis, text
mining and linguistics will be combined in order to
analyze community content
Theoretical Touch Points
Literature on Augmented Reality, Foresight Methods,
Web Monitoring
Study Design
Longitudinal study measuring the change of
consumers‘ perception and acceptance
Foresight and Consumer Acceptance – AR
© 2013 HYVE AG 5
Aims and Objectives
© 2013 HYVE AG 6
Aims and ObjectivesInvestigating AR from a Consumer Perspective
Investigating Augmented Reality from a Consumer Perspective
Time• How has AR changed over time from an end
user perspective?• Are there temporal changes regarding the
usage of AR?• How has the consumer acceptance/
sentiments regarding AR changed over time?
• Are there significant jumps? In connection to what (launch of new technology/ application)? Which concepts existed before/ afterwards? Is there a different focus?
Sentiments• How is AR perceived and accepted by
consumers?• Which kinds of sentiments exist towards AR?
Application• What topics are related to AR?• What are the main fields of utilization?• What is the actual use of AR?
Quantity• How many comments/ entries exist about
AR?• How intensive is AR discussed by
consumers?
Outlook• How is AR expected to develop in the future?
© 2013 HYVE AG 7
Methodology
© 2013 HYVE AG 8
Insius Web MonitoringAdvantages
► HYVE with its long-lasting record in netnographic research is teaming up with INSIUS, a technology specialist from Cologne, to provide social media based research on an advanced automated level
► Their joint efforts provide the following benefits
1) Data crawling is based on simulated search-behavior and provides thereby an orientation towards relevant social media posts from the beginning
2) A special identification of „real“ user generated content is applied, not a collection of mere „technical“ UGC (efficient machine learning algorithms as well as domain-specific sentiment-assessment are used to ensure this)
3) The analysis of posts explore relevant topics and subtopics and is thereby „discovering“ unknown dependencies - not only coding already known categories
4) The identified topics are mapped onto an association-network, dependencies and structures across all discussions can be seen here in a clear overview
© 2013 HYVE AG 9
Analyzing Social Media Content at „Big Data Scale“Social Media Network Audit
To identify brand and product related social media content on a „big data“ scale, a process with 4 distinct steps is conducted. Effective computer algorithms as well as experience netnographic researchers are hereby interacting in each step:
► Crawl: data collection by simulating human online search behavior
► Extract: cleaning of data and extraction of user generated content by specialized machine learning algorithms
► Analyze: identification of topics and sentiments
► Map: construction of a topic network – automatized mapping of topics, subtopics – their sentiments and drivers
Crawl1 Clean & Extract2 Analyse3 Map4
© 2013 HYVE AG 10
Social Media Network AuditCrawl – Clean&Extract
► keyword strings that are representing the research topic at hand, are formulated by experienced netnographers
► crawling of possible relevant UGC by queries against all relevant search engines
► content is extracted from all (!) search engine result pages and stored in a data base
Due to the simulation of human online search behavior, the data crawling is already focused on relevant UGC.
Cleaning of automated data is necessary due to the following facts:
► Spam and Code has to be excluded
► only real user generated content should be taken into account (no editorial content, no advertisement and PR)
Our technology is using two technologies for this
► rendering and deconstruction of a website into its pieces
► machine learning algorithms that differentiate Spam, Code, editorial and PR content from UGC
Crawl
Clean&Extract
1
2
© 2013 HYVE AG 11
Social Media Network AuditAnalyse - Map
► using specialized computer linguistic models, the crawled data is analyzed to identify topics, subtopics and their drivers
► a sentiment analysis gives a first impression of the polarity of products, brands and topics (positive, negative, neutral)
► an identification of positive and negative drivers provides a deeper understanding of topics and their relations in terms of the actual content of the discussions
Analyse
Map
► for every analyzed brand or product the relations between discussed topics are evaluated by using network analysis
► in the center of the network the major research topic can be found – grouped around are the negative and positive associations (topics)
HYVE‘s Social Media Network Audit provides hereby a quick understanding of the relations and dependencies between discussions on brands, products and technology. It also serves as an ideal starting point for further netnographic research.
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4
© 2013 HYVE AG 12
First Findings
Quantitative Assessment
© 2013 HYVE AG 13
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Quantitative assessmentTotal volume timeline
Average growth of47 % p.a. since 2007
amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per year)
© 2013 HYVE AG 14
1999
_Q1
1999
_Q3
2000
_Q1
2000
_Q3
2001
_Q1
2001
_Q3
2002
_Q1
2002
_Q3
2003
_Q1
2003
_Q3
2004
_Q1
2004
_Q3
2005
_Q1
2005
_Q3
2006
_Q1
2006
_Q3
2007
_Q1
2007
_Q3
2008
_Q1
2008
_Q3
2009
_Q1
2009
_Q3
2010
_Q1
2010
_Q3
2011
_Q1
2011
_Q3
2012
_Q1
2012
_Q3
2013
_Q1
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,500
Quantitative assessmentTotal volume timeline
amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per quarter)
Google Glass atGoogle I/O
HomeSpotter at NAR
CES 2013; Oculus Rift etc.
© 2013 HYVE AG 15
www.mtbs3d.comstackoverflow.com
seminarprojects.comforums.macrumors.com
forum.unity3d.comwww.ign.com
www.xtremesystems.orgwww.defencetalk.com
www.gamespot.comanswers.yahoo.com
forum.rpg.net3dsforums.com
forum.xda-developers.comforums.penny-arcade.com
www.escapistmagazine.comforums.toucharcade.com
gamrconnect.vgchartz.comwww.neogaf.comwww.meetup.com
developer.vuforia.comwarships1discussionboards.yuku.com
www.futuretimeline.netandroidforums.com
www.serebiiforums.comtalk.maemo.org
www.abovetopsecret.comwww.nintendolife.com
forums.ubi.comwww.avforums.com
forums.cgsociety.orgforums.whirlpool.net.au
forum.lowyat.netwww.quora.com
www.gamedev.netwww.pojo.biz
forum.beyond3d.comforums.gametrailers.com
mybroadband.co.zaforum.magicball.net
www.neoseeker.comforums.steampowered.com
hardforum.comforums.eidosgames.com
forum.mobilism.orgwww.giantitp.com
www.psu.comforums.sjgames.com
forums.comicbookresources.comeclipsephase.com
2,3211,820
1,4141,024
695648
626582580
514507
486455453
439365
348267
257250245240
229225224219
208199196195
182171167165164163163162158156153150150150148147144143139
Quantitative assessmentCommunities
24%
15%
14%
14%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%3%
Gamer Community
3D-Game-Technology-Community
Computer and Technology Community
Q&A-Site
Smartphone-Community
Smartphone-Developer-Community
Military Community
Home Entertainment Com-munity
Game Developer Community
Sonstige
© 2013 HYVE AG 16
Quantitative assessmentTotal Volume - Summary
► Augmented reality sees a massive leap in user generated content after 2006
► Since then the amount of UGC grows nearly 50% from year to year
Growing interest since 2006
► Google Glasses showed a significant impact on the discussion around AR, but on a very high level
► Other products like the Oculus Rift (VR) were also able to stimulate the discourse on AR
All about Google Glasses?
► The major areas of discussion in the social media landscape are game-development and gaming related
► Smartphone-Communities and App-developer communities (like XDA-Developers) follow with wide margin.
Is it a gamers thing?
© 2013 HYVE AG 17
Demographic data based on Alexa trafficAge and education
age education
18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
44 to 45
55 to 64
65 plus
47
20
-15
-31
-37
-31
no college
some college
college
graduate school
0
16
5
-8
► Age-focus lies beneath 35 years, correlating to the major “gaming” topic that is prevalent in the discussion-
sites
► The relatively low educational level could also be a phenomenon of the gaming focus: the majority
of users is simply too young for a college degree
Age and education correspond to the impression of “gamers”
All values are relative to average internet
usage
based on Alexa-ratings:
• measures based on average, weighted Alexa
statistics of crawled sites
• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered
(non-representative sample), all values in US-
metric
!
© 2013 HYVE AG 18
Demographic data based on Alexa trafficGender, children and income
gender and children income
► The most used forums and communities are frequented by males without children.
► The low income of community members could again be a mere age-phenomenon.
gender, children and income
All values are relative to average internet
usage
based on Alexa-ratings:
• measures based on average, weighted Alexa
statistics of crawled sites
• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered
(non-representative sample), all values in US-
metric
!
male
female
60
-39
has children
has no children
-25
34
income 0 to 30k
income 30k to 60k
income 60k to 100k
income 100k plus
28
-2
-7
-20
© 2013 HYVE AG 19
Demographic data based on Alexa trafficPlace of internet usage
place of internet usage
► The place of internet usage is maybe the most significant
evidence that “gamers”, still going to school are dominating
the online discussions: Internet usage is above average –
but not at “work”
No internet-usage at work
All values are relative to average internet
usage
based on Alexa-ratings:
• measures based on average, weighted Alexa
statistics of crawled sites
• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered
(non-representative sample), all values in US-
metric
!
internet at home
internet at school
internet at work
21
24
-14
© 2013 HYVE AG 20
Topic analysis
Overview
© 2013 HYVE AG 21
Network overviewIntroduction
48.742 posts
3.236 sites
6.264 concepts
Augmented Reality
© 2013 HYVE AG 22
Network overviewIntroduction
Augmented Reality
each node in the network represents a language concept
these appear in sentences and have a specific polarity
negativeneutralpositive
the more central a concept is, the more
frequent it occurred in the crawled discussions
the numbers inside the concepts give a relative
impression of the frequency of a concept in this specific network
© 2013 HYVE AG 23
Network overviewTopics overall
gaming
4.839 occurre
nces
informatio
n&knowledge
597 occurre
nces
advertis
ing&marketin
g
469 occurre
nces
shopping
454 occurre
nces
navigatio
n
213 occurre
nces
educatio
n
80 occurre
nces
© 2013 HYVE AG 24
Network overviewTopics - development
1970-2007 2008-2010 2011-20130
50
100
150
200
250
information&knowledge
advertising&marketing
shopping
navigation
education
450
950
1,450
gaming
© 2013 HYVE AG 25
Network overviewExample: gaming
► the network to the isolated
gaming-related concepts
► all concepts that co-occur in
posts with gaming related topics
are taken into account
► it serves as a first basis for
deeper topic understanding and
can already show significant
phenomena
Isolation of the gaming network
© 2013 HYVE AG 26
Network overviewTime shift
2005 and before after 2005
© 2013 HYVE AG 27
The entire study including the final outcomes will
be available soon!
© 2013 HYVE AG 28
Oliver Gluth
fon +49.89.189 081-458
fax +49.89.189 081-400
HYVE Innovation Research
GmbH
HYVE Science Labs
Schellingstraße 45
80799 München
www.hyve.de
Thank you for your attention
Your personal contact
HYVE Innovation Research GmbH
HYVE Science Labs
Schellingstraße 45
80799 München
www.hyve.de
Hanna Stockinger
fon +49.89.189 081-479
fax +49.89.189 081-400
Marc Egger
fon +49.221.4558026-0
fax +49.221.4558026-9
Insius UG
Technologiepark Köln
Eupener Str. 165
50933 Köln
http://insius.com